Brewers acquire 3B Juan Francisco from Atlanta Braves

[gregmag]

I was about to write something along the lines of Francisco is a major league hitter and Bianchi may not be . . . but I decided to look at Fangraphs first. The usual caveats about quantifying defensive performance apply, and I don't get to see many games, but FWIW Fangraphs agrees with you guys. In terms of overall WAR, Fangraphs has Francisco as worse on a per-PA basis than Yuni, and Bianchi is just over the break-even point. Francisco is undeniably a much, much better hitter than Bianchi at this point (or Yuni), which isn't saying much. But Bianchi would at least have a small chance of improving with more PT, and his defensive value appears to leave Francisco in the dust. Again, I know looking at single-season defensive WAR is hazardous, but in this case it backs up the strong testimony of a couple of eyewitnesses.

[brewmann04]

I like Jeff the only thing he hits for no Power at a traditional Power position.I don't see Hart being happy he not played all season with two bum knees.

[Roderick]

I don't see Hart being happy he not played all season with two bum knees.

 

Obviously. But for not playing a game, if he wants to come back to play for Milwaukee, he couldn't have had a better season by his replacements as incentive for Melvin to want him back.

[torts]

I don't see Hart being happy he not played all season with two bum knees.

 

Obviously. But for not playing a game, if he wants to come back to play for Milwaukee, he couldn't have had a better season by his replacements as incentive for Melvin to want him back.

 

this

[gregmag]

Fair enough, but the reason his potential replacements wrecked the train is that plans B and C got hurt, and Doug unbelievably thought Yuni and Alex Gonzalez made sense as Plan D. I'd try any of five or six things before paying Corey Hart $10 million to come back and maybe, if everything breaks right, hit 30 homers and do not much of anything else for a rebuilding team. Heck, depending on the money (a big "if"), I might put up with Francisco for a year at 1b if RR signed a blood oath not to play him at 3b, ever. But ahead of Francisco and Hart on my list are a bunch of our young guys -- none of them a world beater, but all of them cheap with some upside -- and the AAAA vet behind door number 2 (whom I admit could just be Francisco 2.0, but probably cheaper).

[SoupTown]

I will guess Hart comes back on a 3 mill base contract with 3 mill of incentives. Then a team option for 2015 for 6 mill with a 1 mill buyout.

 

Just a guess. But I would love to see the Morris/Gamel/Halton shootout. But, but... with no trades at the death, it does seem Doug and Mark are going for it in 2014. So, a Hart/Gamel first base solution will work for that. And Morris and Halton can be forced to prove to be .300 hitters in AAA in in 2014

[Funketown]

Morris isn't even putting up a league-average line in AAA this season, his OBP is barely north of .300. Unless he goes on a serious tear for the next 60 games, I don't consider him a reasonable option as the starting 1B next season.

 

If Gamel is healthy, I think it's worth giving him a shot so long as Hart won't come back on the cheap. I personally wouldn't be opposed to moving Braun to 1B for the rest of his career, but I doubt that will happen.

[Roderick]

I personally wouldn't be opposed to moving Braun to 1B for the rest of his career, but I doubt that will happen.

 

If it is going to happen, 2014 would be the perfect opportunity. You know Braun isn't going to make any waves about it as he will want to keep a low profile.

[JohnBriggs12]

The FA market for first basemen this year is very deep. In addition to Hart, there's Loney, Morneau, Napoli, Reynolds, and my personal favorite, Mike Morse who's been amazing at Miller Park: .432/.475/.973 in an albeit small sample of 40 PA.

 

None of these guys are break the bank guys, but for the most part, they provide much more quality than what the Brewers have suffered with this year, and are better bets in the short term than what the Brewers have going into next year.

[fondybrewfan]

Braun at 1st with a Gindl/Davis platoon in left doesn't seem like an awful idea. It at least doesn't require us to overpay for some FA or bring back a big injury risk in Hart. Schafer could play RF if Aoki is gone or could be in some sort of rotation at all three OF spots.

 

Francisco better be no where near this team next year unless it is strictly a sub role. He makes Prince and Braun look like gold glovers.

[JohnBriggs12]

Hart's not going to command much at all as a FA. A guy like Morse could be a relative bargain too in that $7-9 million range. I like Gindl a shade more than Davis, but I'm not sure either is an everyday player, at least on a contender which I still think the Brewers believe they can be (heck they are 40-39 in months not starting with M), and I'm not sure there's enough AB's between now an the end of the year to make that judgment. Plus if you get a FA on a short term deal, they can always be flipped at next year's deadline.

[brewmann04]

I can't see Hart getting any type of big Offer from anyone, The brewers are smart they will just offer him a one year deal. The Braun Idea is new and wonder what type of 1st baseman he might be, but agree he really can't complain about any move.

[HiAndTight]

I can't see Hart getting any type of big Offer from anyone, The brewers are smart they will just offer him a one year deal. The Braun Idea is new and wonder what type of 1st baseman he might be, but agree he really can't complain about any move.

 

 

I disagree, if the Brewers are smart, they'll offer him TWO years. At this point, he's gotta be looking for a 1 year "prove it," type deal after sitting out all year this year. If he comes back and puts up a line of lets say .270/.345/.500 and 30/90 he'll be a very marketable type player as long as his salary is reasonable. I like the first post on this past. 3 million with 3 million in incentives and a 2nd year for 6 million. The second year being a team option preferably.

[HiAndTight]

If Yuni B can start on a playoff team as a regular at SS, Francisco can be a low level third baseman on a competitive team. Or, at least, a platoon option. He's not part of your core, but I think people are overrating what you can expect out of third base.

 

NL third basemen in 2013 are hitting a combined .257/.327/.399 for a .726 OPS. AL third basemen are hitting around .759 OPS, so a .740-ish OPS is probably average. Francisco is obviously going to be a low OBP / high SLG guy, but it's not unreasonable to expect a .770 OPS or so out of him in the next few years, maybe peaking in the low .800s for a year or two.

 

Heck, David Freese (.727 OPS), Todd Frazier (.731 OPS), and Luis Valbuena (.739 OPS) aren't exactly hitting the cover off the ball in the division. And Pedro Alvarez is precisely the kind of low OBP / high SLG / bad defense 3B that Francisco projects to be.

 

Obviously defense is an issue with him. Reportedly attitude is too. But, a stopgap corner guy who's in the neighborhood of average, isn't necessarily a bad thing to have around for a few years.

 

Oh, I agree he is fine for a stop-gap. But we aren't talking about a stop-gap. We are talking about planning for him to be a regular, which I think is a bad plan. If it turns out that way, so be it, but don't plan for it.

 

 

He is still a guy with a lot of talent who's still young enough to realize it. He's not that much different from a 25 year old Ortiz. He's exactly the type of guy that for the time being I'd like to keep around to see if he can develop into a 30+ HR a year guy and can push his line up around .260/.330/.500. Start him off as a backup who should see quite a bit of action starting next season IF Hart and Ramirez are in fact back, and if they're both back, I would assume that at least one of them will be gone by the trade deadline next year either due to injury, or trade opening the door for Francisco. After that, we'll have guys coming up to replace him at both spots in the near future if he doesn't realize his potential.

 

But it's hard to give up on a guy with his type of power this early on in his career. He's obviously no Prince, but he has Prince like power.

[pogokat]

He is still a guy with a lot of talent who's still young enough to realize it. He's not that much different from a 25 year old Ortiz. He's exactly the type of guy that for the time being I'd like to keep around to see if he can develop into a 30+ HR a year guy and can push his line up around .260/.330/.500.

 

After Last night, Juan is Ops'ing .801 as a Brewer with a decent enough .320 obp. He's not a world beater, and good lord is he terrible at first base. But he's got a lot of potential. In fact, I've been really happy with him---he's exactly the kind of guy the Brewers should have playing 1b right now...he might turn out to be something if he figures out how to catch a frackin' baseball, and in the meantime, he's going to help us get a top 5 draft pick.

 

If he just relaxes a little more a the plate, I think he could at least be Mark Trumbo...He pretty much is now, actually. A steal, methinks. If he would just catch. the. Ball.