2013 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5

[trwi7]

Keith Law

 

Picks I loved

Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers didn't pick until 54th overall, but got a first-round talent in athletic right-hander Devin Williams, who was 20th on my board and was an absolute steal in the second round. I'm flabbergasted that he lasted that long, and thrilled for Brewers fans because they haven't added a high-upside talent like that through the draft for several years.

[BrewersAA]

Anyone think Trevor Clifton makes it to the brewers in the fourth? I think he would be a great pick in a year without a first round choice, well any year. but especially when you don't get that first rounder he seems like if he could be polished up mechanically, and project a little more he would be a first round talent. His fastball has touched 97 and he should still add a few ticks. What do you guys think?

[narwhalattack]

Haven't really heard of him much, although I haven't been following the draft very much this year, but if you got a guy with velocity, that's going to be of good value in the later rounds anyway.

 

As for the third round, I wonder who the Brewers will pick. If they go "talent first, money later" then I think Brentz or Salazar could be possible. Otherwise they could go for a more conservative pick to save some money, especially after taking two high school players for their first two picks.

[homer]

Keith Law liked Milwaukee's pick.

 

Crap.

[brewmann04]

NIce tweet from Keith Law. The brewers need to continue to focus on Pitching think they will go the college route noe with some picks.

[LouisEly]

So why bother taking a college guy? Realistically we can't expect Jungmann to be better than what he is now? Jorge Lopez probably has better potential than Jungmann?

TheCrew posted some excellent articles about the chances of finding an impact pitcher among the top 100 picks; college RH tend to be more successful than HS RH (15% vs 11%), whereas lefties are about the same (HS - 15%, college - 14%). College players tend to be more mature (Lawrie) and engage in less risky behavior (Jeffress, Wilhelmson) that puts their professional career in jeopardy than HS players. While bats have changed in college recently and aren't as advantageous as the old aluminum ones were, not using wood bats in college forces college pitchers to pitch differently to offset that advantage and that change can add upside to college pitchers especially if they can add a 3rd/4th pitch.

 

Some HS players you can't project, and they develop physically later or get better coaching that causes them to blossom in college (Strasburg - not drafted out of HS, no one had Rodon as a 1st round pick). I think though that the change in philosophy around 2005-06 about how many innings HS pitchers pitch their first 3-4 pro seasons will help improve the success rate of HS pitchers. Looking at how many innings/pitches Rogers, Jones, Gold, and especially Neugebauer threw their first full pro seasons (compared to Odorizzi) it's not surprising they got hurt.

[LouisEly]

If the Brewers go HS in the 3rd, then expect them to take a bunch of college seniors in the 7th-10th rounds who will sign for less than slot to free up some extra bonus pool money to bring these guys in the fold.

 

I'd like to see a LHP at #90, but Salazar is interesting. Knowing what I know about Kerman (spent plenty of time in Fresno), chances are Salazar doesn't come from a well-to-do family and turning down 3rd round slot money will probably be tough to do.

[nate82]

Any chance the Brewers take Covey?

 

I would rather see the Brewers take Ward or Puk but I think both would be impossible signs right now. I believe they both will go to college and up their stock so they can be taken in the 1st round.

 

Nate why do you like Puk so much? Just the big body LHP thing? He's already 220 lbs at 6'7" is it certain he'll add more velocity? I'm sincerely curious.

 

Colby can correct me on this but what sold me on Puk was someone at PG comparing him to Sabathia. Puk should add some more velocity and will then sit in the mid 90's. He should also become a 200+ IP a year pitcher. He is going to be workhorse like Sabathia. You just don't find that many pitchers like a Sabathia any more. I believe this is just his 2nd year focusing on basedball as he gave up football last year.

 

If he doesnt make it as a pitcher you are looking at an Adam Dunn like player at the plate. There is a lot to like about him.

[TooLiveBrew]

Keith Law liked Milwaukee's pick.

 

Crap.

 

In this case, I actually am glad to hear Law was on-board with the pick. He definitely loves high-ceiling types, and that's exactly what we got with Williams.

[TheCrew07]

Devin Williams, Tucker Neuhaus Offer Brewers Upside

[wichmae]

Is he a reliever or do they try and start Astin?

[TheCrew07]

3rd Round: RHP Barrett Astin Arkansas

Astin served as the Razorbacks closer in 2012 and helped them reach the College World Series. This season he has bounced back and forth between the rotation and bullpen, pitching well in both roles. Astin relies on his low-90s sinker. It has good tailing action and he isn’t afraid to attack hitters with it. His secondary offerings aren’t as well-developed as his fastball, but he has the makings of a solid slider. Astin will have to improve his offspeed pitches to be a starter as a professional, but he also has the makeup to pitch in high-leverage situations as a reliever.

[nate82]

Not really thrilled with this pick but it may just be a money saving pick by the Brewers here. He is definitely going to be a bullpen arm if he even makes it to the majors that is.

[narwhalattack]

I think it's most likely a money saving pick. Not surprising considering that their first two picks are high school guys.

[TheCrew07]

My other lefty is still out there, Garrett Williams, not only do I despise not having a 1st round pick but our small pool may kill this draft. Signing Lohse was such a colossal blunder.

 

I wonder if we're going to see a college run through the the 10th with teams trying to load up on HS players later.

[3and2Fastball]

Astin: Projects to be a 7th or 8th inning guy maybe in MLB...not thrilled with the pick but he has a chance to possibly be a back of the rotation starter and could help the Brewers as early as 2014/2015 in the bullpen

[narwhalattack]

My other lefty is still out there, Garrett Williams, not only do I despise not having a 1st round pick but our small pool may kill this draft. Signing Lohse was such a colossal blunder.

 

 

But guys, Lohse is the last missing piece to get the Brewers to the playoffs! Can't you see his gritty veteran-ness moving this team forward??? He's such a rotation anchor!

[ramssuperbowl1999]

My other lefty is still out there, Garrett Williams, not only do I despise not having a 1st round pick but our small pool may kill this draft. Signing Lohse was such a colossal blunder.

 

 

But guys, Lohse is the last missing piece to get the Brewers to the playoffs! Can't you see his gritty veteran-ness moving this team forward??? He's such a rotation anchor!

I may be crucified for this, but there is a way to spin the Lohse signing as 'not the worst thing that could have happened'.

 

Having Lohse at the front of the rotation for the next few years will allow us to trade Gallardo for the right price without completely blowing up the rotation. That way, we still have at least 1 guy we can count on for good innings and to give the bullpen a day of rest.

 

Now, obviously we all would have preferred that this come from a guy who didn't cost a 1st round pick (Ryan Dempster was my choice).

 

But, at the end of the day, what helps the farm more - taking a guy at 17 and having to keep Gallardo or keeping Lohse, losing 17 and getting a haul of prospects?

 

(I realize that may be a false equivalency, but it's my spin to justify the move after the fact and I'm sticking to it!)

[narwhalattack]

You may have a point, but there really wasn't any good reason to sign Lohse. He wasn't going to get this team to the playoffs on his own.

[monty57]

90-91 MPH FB/sinker with no developed secondary pitches and a ceiling as a middle reliever. Has a team ever not even attempted to sign a guy just to save his slot money for another player?

[narwhalattack]

In this case they have to sign the guy or they lose the money for the slot.

[TheCrew07]

Having Lohse at the front of the rotation for the next few years will allow us to trade Gallardo for the right price without completely blowing up the rotation. That way, we still have at least 1 guy we can count on for good innings and to give the bullpen a day of rest.

 

I think that's quite a reach considering his age and stuff, if Lohse is our anchor we're in huge trouble.

[narwhalattack]

So who do you guys think the Brewers will select with pick 122? Another low-ceilinged guy to save money? Or do they take a shot at another HS guy?

[monty57]

In this case they have to sign the guy or they lose the money for the slot.

 

Thanks for the info. Hence the strategy of wasting a third rounder on an "organizational soldier" who knows he's not worth much so he'll sign for less than slot.

 

I won't be too down. It's the way the system's designed, and I like the upside of the first two picks. Too bad we have to waste our third rounder in order to pay for the other ones. Hopefully he'll win some games in long relief in a few years.

[And That]

The Brewers are cornering the market on pitching Williamses.