2013 Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5

[nate82]

Any chance the Brewers take Covey?

 

I would rather see the Brewers take Ward or Puk but I think both would be impossible signs right now. I believe they both will go to college and up their stock so they can be taken in the 1st round.

[TheCrew07]

Just like the football drafts anyone who thinks they can project these guys is simply insane..

 

Always a ray of sunshine.

 

It's never a bad thing to add dynamic athletes to already solid systems. With organizations that consistently have success with high upside players it's not a stretch to say they had a good draft by adding more players of significant upside.

 

Obviously we won't know how those players will pan out for years, but it's not like any of the teams in our division have significantly reached so far this year, they've all been relatively sound picks. In the past it was pretty easy to hate on the Cubs' draft picks for example, they were that awful, lately they've been the exact opposite.

[vegasbrewcrew1993]

They went the high school route this time. Non-flamethrowers with control problems don't excite me. I hope the kid ends up being good. Hopefully the next draft pick has good command. I'm tired of hoping that our minor leaguers fix their control issues. It seems like the Brewers have more than enough guys that can't locate their pitches.

 

One can assume if he didn't have a little control issues, then he's likely selected in the 1st round? It's the control that slips him down to our pick.

 

HS Pitcher Thank You! I hope it's a fun ride reading his development as the next 4 years progress. I wouldn't call him a nonflamethrower if mid 90s are projectable with his frame.

 

Yes that makes sense. A lot of people were calling for a high school pitcher. This pick should please many. Got a question. Why do many prefer high school pitchers over college pitchers? The college pitcher has had more time to work on his stuff.

[TheCrew07]

Any chance the Brewers take Covey?

 

I would rather see the Brewers take Ward or Puk but I think both would be impossible signs right now. I believe they both will go to college and up their stock so they can be taken in the 1st round.

 

Nate why do you like Puk so much? Just the big body LHP thing? He's already 220 lbs at 6'7" is it certain he'll add more velocity? I'm sincerely curious.

[ramssuperbowl1999]

They went the high school route this time. Non-flamethrowers with control problems don't excite me. I hope the kid ends up being good. Hopefully the next draft pick has good command. I'm tired of hoping that our minor leaguers fix their control issues. It seems like the Brewers have more than enough guys that can't locate their pitches.

 

One can assume if he didn't have a little control issues, then he's likely selected in the 1st round? It's the control that slips him down to our pick.

 

HS Pitcher Thank You! I hope it's a fun ride reading his development as the next 4 years progress. I wouldn't call him a nonflamethrower if mid 90s are projectable with his frame.

 

Yes that makes sense. A lot of people were calling for a high school pitcher. This pick should please many. Got a question. Why do many prefer high school pitchers over college pitchers? The college pitcher has had more time to work on his stuff.

Because college pitching ranks have already been thinned out by clubs taking HS pitchers 2-3 years earlier. It's kind of like going to a bar after Ryan Gosling leaves with 10 chicks. He might have missed some, but he took who he wanted off the board.

[ramssuperbowl1999]

Hmm. We have Jean Segura, and Arcia behind him. So why are we selecting a shortstop? Project third base?

 

 

Guys change position all the time. Moving off of SS is the easiest move to make since SS is usually the best athlete. Not to mention Arcia hasn't done anything yet and could bust. Segura might leave via free agency by the time this guy makes to the bigs. Also, SS is traditionally a position of need around baseball and the more good shortstops you have the more chips you have to trade. Always take best player available regardless of position. In baseball more so than any other sport.

Arcia: I'd say keeping his head above water at Low A and posting a wRC+ of about 90 at 18 despite missing a full season of ball and skipping a rookie level qualifies as something.

 

Segura: Expect him to agree to an extension.

 

The rest is definitely true - you can never have too many SSs and BPA is always a good pick.

[TheCrew07]

Yes that makes sense. A lot of people were calling for a high school pitcher. This pick should please many. Got a question. Why do many prefer high school pitchers over college pitchers? The college pitcher has had more time to work on his stuff.

 

There's a trio of reasons I'd like to continually mix in high upside HS arms:

 

1. The impact college pitchers are usually gone by the end of the 1st round, if you want impact pitching later in the draft, chances are you're going to have to dip into the HS ranks.

 

2. Abuse. Many college programs routinely extend their starting pitchers to obscene pitch counts, for example Carlos Rodon threw 130 pitches in the NCAA regionals last week.

 

3. Similar to 2 college coaching is hit or miss on mechanics, teaching plus pitches, and so on. Many college pitchers still need significant development time post college. If it's going to take you 3-4 years to get the player to MLB the typical 21 year old college pitcher is 25 years old by the time he debuts. For the 3-4 years of development time anyway are you really better off taking a college arm?

[vegasbrewcrew1993]

One can assume if he didn't have a little control issues, then he's likely selected in the 1st round? It's the control that slips him down to our pick.

 

HS Pitcher Thank You! I hope it's a fun ride reading his development as the next 4 years progress. I wouldn't call him a nonflamethrower if mid 90s are projectable with his frame.

 

Yes that makes sense. A lot of people were calling for a high school pitcher. This pick should please many. Got a question. Why do many prefer high school pitchers over college pitchers? The college pitcher has had more time to work on his stuff.Because college pitching ranks have already been thinned out by clubs taking HS pitchers 2-3 years earlier. It's kind of like going to a bar after Ryan Gosling leaves with 10 chicks. He might have missed some, but he took who he wanted off the board.

So it's like taking 2nd round draftees after all the 1st round draftees have taken?

[ramssuperbowl1999]

So it's like taking 2nd round draftees after all the 1st round draftees have taken?

Kyle Lohse can turn the franchise around dang-nabbit!

[gregmag]

Just like the football drafts anyone who thinks they can project these guys is simply insane. There is no reason at all to get excited about drafts because your opinions on the guys your team pick are completely useless.

That's excessive hyperbole, not "simply realism," and in the context of this discussion it's nonsense. We know a lot about draft prospects, and we can draw some useful provisional conclusions based on what we know. Can we make meaningful predictions about how a draft will look after the last of these players retires? Of course not. But that's not the only thing worth doing.

[brewcrewdue80]

My preference between the two is simply, if you can draft a HS kid you think is in the same league as that College Pitcher. Age. I'll take 3-5years developing a HS kid so he arrives on the Ballclub at age 21-23. Vs. the 3-5years it takes for the College pitcher to arrive at age 24-26. If we're thinking lottery with these picks if you hit on the HS player he can be your big ticket for your organization for a Decade. Maybe longer.

 

Also in way of Pitchers, they've grown up. You can't expect much more with FB then what they possess that day.

 

Besides, if we're looking for All Stars/Future HOFs, for me growing up I was a Yount Fan. He was on the team when he was 18! Coming out of College in to the draft you're 3-4years behind that time frame.

I am just more excited for Younger Players as you can always believe development will come. 3years after draft day, He's only 21 and if he's not showing progress as you hoped well at least he's had 3 years of pro ball vs. the College guy now getting his first taste. So I think of it as the HS pick can develop for up to 6-8 years before I can label him a bust.

[homer]

Hmm. We have Jean Segura, and Arcia behind him. So why are we selecting a shortstop? Project third base?

 

 

Guys change position all the time. Moving off of SS is the easiest move to make since SS is usually the best athlete. Not to mention Arcia hasn't done anything yet and could bust. Segura might leave via free agency by the time this guy makes to the bigs. Also, SS is traditionally a position of need around baseball and the more good shortstops you have the more chips you have to trade. Always take best player available regardless of position. In baseball more so than any other sport.

Arcia: I'd say keeping his head above water at Low A and posting a wRC+ of about 90 at 18 despite missing a full season of ball and skipping a rookie level qualifies as something.

 

Segura: Expect him to agree to an extension.

 

The rest is definitely true - you can never have too many SSs and BPA is always a good pick.

 

My use of the word "nothing" in regards to Arcia was an exaggeration but until a player with raw talent gets to AA and has success I tend not to get my hopes up. And as for Segura, yes he might sign an extension. The point was that even with Segura on the team it doesn't mean you forego taking a shortstop.

[vegasbrewcrew1993]

My preference between the two is simply, if you can draft a HS kid you think is in the same league as that College Pitcher. Age. I'll take 3-5years developing a HS kid so he arrives on the Ballclub at age 21-23. Vs. the 3-5years it takes for the College pitcher to arrive at age 24-26. If we're thinking lottery with these picks if you hit on the HS player he can be your big ticket for your organization for a Decade. Maybe longer.

 

Also in way of Pitchers, they've grown up. You can't expect much more with FB then what they possess that day.

 

Besides, if we're looking for All Stars/Future HOFs, for me growing up I was a Yount Fan. He was on the team when he was 18! Coming out of College in to the draft you're 3-4years behind that time frame.

I am just more excited for Younger Players as you can always believe development will come. 3years after draft day, He's only 21 and if he's not showing progress as you hoped well at least he's had 3 years of pro ball vs. the College guy now getting his first taste. So I think of it as the HS pick can develop for up to 6-8 years before I can label him a bust.

 

So why bother taking a college guy? Realistically we can't expect Jungmann to be better than what he is now? Jorge Lopez probably has better potential than Jungmann?

[homer]

The first round guy sort of reminds me of Lopez from last year.

[3and2Fastball]

In general I like the high upside pick of Wilson....

 

Tucker's bat is intriguing. Plus I like the potential of having both a Scooter and a Tucker in the infield

[brewcrewdue80]

 

 

Who brought the party pooper?

 

 

Sorry, it is simply realism. I have lived way too long and watched way too many drafts and seen way too many results that weren't expected. Hoping we draft such and such is great because you believe in them, judging how good a draft is on draft day is just beyond silly and useless. You are basically drawing straws. The person who walks away from today's draft and says team X did a great job is just deluding themselves.

 

So what brought you in to this discussion to simply call one insane for believing what analysts on websites/ESPN say as Pitt. having a good draft? It was the first thing you posted in this. If you hate the reality of failed draft picks then just stay away from the discussion of a draft that is incurring? On a failed season like ours, deluding one with hopes is what I come for.

It was like your mission was to come in here and set the forum on fire with spite to zap any fresh air zapped in to the future of the Milwaukee Franchise in today's selection. What kind of fan is that?

[TheCrew07]

So why bother taking a college guy? Realistically we can't expect Jungmann to be better than what he is now? Jorge Lopez probably has better potential than Jungmann?

 

On draft day Sessile, I, and some others thought that the ceilings of the draft picks were in reverse order of their draft position. We thought Lopez had the highest ceiling, then Bradley, then Jungmann.

 

Remember that many of us are seeking impact talent, we think the systems needs some guys with 1-2 potential. We have plenty of back of the rotation guys. We'd prefer HS pitchers simply because of where we are drafting... next year if we have a top 5 draft pick we'll have an opportunity to land impact college pitching. Drafting later in the first round those opportunities typically aren't there so you need to go the HS route for impact potential.

 

There is a ton of value in drafting college players not just pitchers, statistically they are much more likely to have a MLB career, however when we are talking impact potential there is very little difference between a HS and a college draftee. This article will help lay it all out.

 

For pitchers if you can nab big league back of the rotation starters or relievers those picks are still valuable. I'm into upside, but I also like a well rounded system so I don't mind the Goforth, Ross, Blaski, Gagnon, Magnifico, and Thornburgs.. guys that maybe have a lower ceilings, or only developed 1 pitch in college, or were 2 way college players who are fairly raw taken later in the draft.

 

I didn't like the Jungmann pick because he was a player with a high floor (as in I thought he'd have a MLB career of some sort), but he didn't have a high ceiling (I still think he's a #3 base case, he didn't and still doesn't have an out pitch).

[brewcrewdue80]

My preference between the two is simply, if you can draft a HS kid you think is in the same league as that College Pitcher. Age. I'll take 3-5years developing a HS kid so he arrives on the Ballclub at age 21-23. Vs. the 3-5years it takes for the College pitcher to arrive at age 24-26. If we're thinking lottery with these picks if you hit on the HS player he can be your big ticket for your organization for a Decade. Maybe longer.

 

Also in way of Pitchers, they've grown up. You can't expect much more with FB then what they possess that day.

 

Besides, if we're looking for All Stars/Future HOFs, for me growing up I was a Yount Fan. He was on the team when he was 18! Coming out of College in to the draft you're 3-4years behind that time frame.

I am just more excited for Younger Players as you can always believe development will come. 3years after draft day, He's only 21 and if he's not showing progress as you hoped well at least he's had 3 years of pro ball vs. the College guy now getting his first taste. So I think of it as the HS pick can develop for up to 6-8 years before I can label him a bust.

 

So why bother taking a college guy? Realistically we can't expect Jungmann to be better than what he is now? Jorge Lopez probably has better potential than Jungmann?

 

 

In Jungmann/Bradley they were projected top of the draft picks. Some college pitchers work out. When they do it doesn't take long to get them to the Majors. They can be safer picks. You already have the notion what they will do. Signability is another. The HS kids may elect to go to college.

[TheCrew07]

He's BA's scouting report on Neuhaus, kind of a sad story:

Neuhaus' older brother died in a car accident in the offseason, and he has struggled to find solace on the field, with nagging injuries such as a pulled quadriceps muscle and burst eardrum. In spite of his tough year, there's a lot to like with Neuhaus, who comes from a baseball family. His father Ken was a head coach at Division III Bethel (Minn.) and an assistant at Iowa before moving the family to Florida, where he has served as a part-time scout with the Reds. Neuhaus has grown into his 6-foot-3, 200-pound frame and plays with savvy and above-average tools. He's athletic for his size and has the soft hands and footwork of someone who loves the game and has played it a lot. Some scouts believe he can handle shortstop, while others see him as a profile third baseman, where he should be an excellent defender. He has good range and solid arm strength for the left side of the infield. He also offers lefthanded power, especially to the pull side. Neuhaus is committed to Louisville and scouts have had a hard time seeing him this spring, which might force him lower on draft boards. He still could play his way into the first two rounds if he performs well in Sebring at the Florida high school all-star game.

[heresrobin]

If signability becomes an issue, and the Brewers need to go the college route with one of their next few picks, here are some college pitchers I sort of like:

-Bobby Wahl - RHP - Ole Miss

-Stephen Tarpley - LHP - Scottsdale CC

-Austin Kubitza - RHP - Rice

-Jeff Thompson - RHP - Louisville

-Andrew Mitchell - RHP - TCU

[vegasbrewcrew1993]

In the Brewers current situation it would be better to roll the dice on the high upside guys. They have more than enough projected #3's, #4's, and #5's. Might as well take a shot on a potential ace. So the high upside college arms are usually gone by 10th pick? After that if you want potential impact talent you invest in HS players?

For 1 pitch in college, or were 2 way college players who are fairly raw taken later in the draft.

[colbyjack]

I mentioned this on Twitter, but I like the Brewers picks. I don't love them, but they took two high ceiling players that could really soar as pros. Both have questions marks (Williams needs to develop his slider, Neuhaus needs to stay healthy and prove he's legit), but the upside is considerable, a solid effort for a team without a true first round pick.

 

Here are the PG scouting reports on both:

 

1. DEVIN WILLIAMS, rhp, Hazelwood West HS, Florissant

Williams has been steadily moving up draft boards all spring and will be talked about by many clubs in the later parts of the first round. He is the epitome of projectable with a fast, loose arm and an athletic 6-foot-4, 190-pound build that has plenty of room to add strength. Williams pitches with a fringy plus fastball that will reach 95 mph now with the anticipation that it will be comfortably a true plus velocity pitch in the near future. His ascension on the draft boards actually stems more from his continued flashing of a potential plus changeup and the improvement in his slider, which he just started throwing in the last year. For more on Williams, read his Perfect Game Draft Focus profile here.

 

Here's that Draft Focus profile:

 

Devin Williams Perfect Game profile

 

Position: RHP

Height: 6-4

Weight: 190

Bats/Throws: R-R

Birthdate: Sept. 21, 1994

High School: Hazelwood West

City, State: Florissant, Mo.

Travel Team: St. Louis Pirates

Commitment: Missouri

Projected Draft Round: 1S-2

 

Missouri high school right hander Devin Williams, currently No. 27 in the PG Class of 2013 rankings, provides a great topic for a “Baseball Scouting 101” conversation because there exists an almost perfect and symmetrical series of notes on him since the first time I saw him pitch at the 2012 Perfect Game Pitcher/Catcher Indoor Showcase about 15 months ago.

 

Before pitching in Cedar Rapids that February, Williams had pitched for the St. Louis Pirates at the 2011 WWBA 17u National Championship and at the 2011 WWBA World Underclass Championship, pitching in the mid-80s and topping out at 87-88 mph to go with a 71 mph curveball.

 

There is a history of Missouri high school pitchers taking big steps forward at the Pitcher/Catcher Indoor dating back to Jacob Turner, who went on to become the Tigers first round pick in 2009, and Williams generated immediate buzz at the Perfect Game building between his very athletic and projectable build and his very live 91 mph fastball. Here are my full notes from his appearance.

 

Very long, slender Dominican type build, full hand drop delivery, gets turned and swings the gate, full arm circle, good rhythm, FB heavy at times, loose fast arm, gets leverage at release, tends to lean/fall off, can improve direction, big drop/sink on Chg at times, good pitch, gets under CB with poor release at times, rare CB to hitters, snapped off 75 CB with bite once when on top, occ slider, got tired (dr) FB 88-91, CB 71-75, SL 79, Chg 80.

 

The major components that stick out here in a junior pitcher were a) his body and athleticism, b) the easy velocity that projected very well, Williams being 6-foot-3, 170-pounds at the time, c) the amount of life on his both his fastball and changeup, and d) his lack of consistency and feel for a curveball.

 

The next time Williams appeared on the Perfect Game stage was at the 2012 PG National Showcase in mid-June. Here are my notes from that outing at the Metrodome.

 

Fast paced, side step delivery, drifts sideways, lands open, some effort, will struggle with consistency, some feel for CH, doubles up on CH, occasionally plus CH sink/fade, very hard to spin ball with his mechanics and he didn't try, maintained velo well, had horizontal leverage, FB aggressive (dr) FB 88-91, CB 75, Chg 78.

 

What I gained from this outing were that a) Williams stuff hadn’t improved and that his mechanics had gone backward during the intervening four month high school season, b) his changeup was still an impressive secondary pitch he had confidence in, and c) the curveball was becoming a bigger issue due to his digressing mechanics and his lack of confidence in even throwing it to hitters.

 

The next time I saw Williams was in late October in Jupiter at the WWBA World Championships pitching for the Mets Scout Team. Williams threw twice and was dominant both times. I didn’t take notes but the most impressive things were a) his velocity had taken a bump up, now consistently in the 90s and topping out at 93-94 mph, b) his delivery had firmed up and he was throwing strikes with all his pitches and pretty much overmatching hitters working ahead in counts, and c) he was throwing a slider instead of a curveball anywhere from 77 to 83 mph and the slider flashed some potential. Just as important, Williams was using it properly and without fear. He had clearly taken a big step as a pitching prospect and he shot way up in the Perfect Game 2013 class rankings.

 

The full year cycle was completed when Williams returned to Cedar Rapids for the 2013 Pitcher/Catcher Indoor. Below are my notes from that event.

 

Long loose athletic build, starting to fill in, looks 6-4/190 now, slow paced side step delivery, leans back in delivery, needs better body angle, long clean deep arm action, nice arm speed on Chg, Chg has life, works downhill, some effort on 93-94’s's but still commands, velo comes pretty easy, twisty SL, shortens arm arch on SL, occ + FB sink down, doesn't mix, consistent FB life and velo, command suffers from stretch, couldn't command off speed, did not throw SL for a strikes but did flash spin (dr) FB 91-94, SL 83, Chg 84.

 

Keeping with the pattern here, this is what I took away from Williams outing, a) he was getting stronger and more mature physically and that was reflected in a plus fastball pretty much any time he wanted it, b) he still had the one delivery flaw, the upper body lean, that in context of his arm action and release causes his problem, in my opinion, with spinning the ball consistently, c) the slider spun hard and was the proper velocity but whether because of the time of year or some other factor, he couldn’t throw it for strikes, d) the body/arm, present stuff and projection definitely made Williams at top three round pick but the breaking ball would likely prevent him from being at first round consideration if not changed by June.

 

I had the opportunity to recently ask a scout for some thoughts on how Williams has thrown this spring and as you’ll see, they cleanly and clearly continue the progression of scouting information that has already been built up on Williams. Here are his paraphrased remarks:

 

Devin has the makings of two average to plus pitches. Right now he has a 5-6 fastball with a chance for a 6-7 in the future. Four-seamer is straight but touches 94-95 and he tends to overthrow it. Two-seamer is 89-92 with tremendous life. Changeup is a big league quality pitch right now, throws two different types for strikes, including one with split-like drop. Everyone wants to see his slider but he is very shy about throwing it, which could hurt him. It has the makings of a power pitch but neither he nor the scouts have a feel for it. I can see top 50 picks for him, though, and a bright future.

 

So there we have Baseball Scouting 101, the anatomy of Missouri high school RHP Devin Williams as a prospect. As the reader/student in this lesson, where would you put him on your draft list?

 

69. TUCKER NEUHAUS, 3b/ss, Wharton HS, Tampa (Fla.)

Neuhaus established his prospect credentials at the Florida Diamond Club event last October, a showcase type event organized by the Florida Scouts Association. The 6-foot-3, 180-pound left handed hitter blasted a long home run and a double in the game and put on a similar display in batting practice. Unfortunately, Neuhaus has had nothing but adversity since, beginning when his older brother, Ty, a catcher at Hillsborough CC, was tragically killed in car accident in December. This spring has seen Neuhaus miss time with an illness, a head injury caused by a ground ball and a quad muscle issue, giving him few chances to show his full range of tools in game situations. Scouts who like Neuhaus the most feel his bat is worthy of first round consideration, although that is not a unanimous opinion due to how infrequently he has been evaluated. Neuhaus currently plays shortstop, and signed with Louisville in part because he was told he could continue to play that position in college, but scouts agree that he will likely move immediately to third base as a professional.

 

(From FL HS All-Star Game)

 

3B Tucker Neuhaus, L/R, 6-3/190, (Louisville): On Thursday he showed all the tools necessary to be a top five round pick in this year's draft. He has nice, compact, and controlled swing that he uses to hit line drives to all-fields. Has great range, good footwork, and plus arm strength at third base. Due to limited at-bats during the season because of illness and injury, he struggled to adjust to top-quality pitching during game situations. He projects to gain significant strength as he matures.

[vegasbrewcrew1993]

Those scouting reports make me feel better about our team's picks. Sounds like Neuhaus projects to be very defensively at 3B. The report says that he has a nice swing. He can hit to hit to all fields and is going to get stronger. I trust the Brewers when it comes to developing hitters. Williams having a plus fastball is a good thing. Hopefully they can improve his slider and changeup. The high upside is encouraging. Let's hope their development doesn't get screwed up.

[vegasbrewcrew1993]

 

Tucker Neuhaus

[splitterpfj]

I think the Brewers did what a lot of fans hoped they would do with their first two picks - they gambled a little bit - instead of taking safer, high-floor types.

 

Both of these kids have a lot of talent, but also a lot of development left ahead of them. I could see both playing a full year each from Appelton to Nashville, which would get them to Milwaukee in 2018.