Minor league talent of the really bad teams right now..Houston, Miami, and Milwaukee

[RobertR]

While early first round picks matter, being able to find talent later is what separates good minor league systems from bad. When was the last time the Cardinals had an early first round pick? And, if you're only hitting on your first round pick, you're unlikely to have a deep system.

 

Yeah, Weeks, Fielder, and Braun were early first rounders. Hardy, Hart, Gallardo, and Lucroy weren't. Nor were Alcides Escobar, Jake Odorizzi, and Lorenzo Cain. After the early first round is where you really see the teams that know what they're doing. The Brewers haven't been at that level in a while.

 

Some of it was bad luck, the Brewers wanted Mike Trout but because of a stupid compensation system that Angels got him instead. But, the idea that "if only the Brewers tanked it will make their minor league system better" is, I believe, misplaced. They need to hit on multiple players throughout the draft. Their lack of scouting to the depth of the draft is what's hurting them, even more than where they're drafting. There are plenty of early busts too.

[JohnBriggs12]

The Major League talent the Brewers have is much better. The minor league talent these really bad teams have is much, much better. That was the point of the thread. The other teams have a much brighter future than we do unless some drastic steps are taken. Sorry it escaped you.

 

Having a great ranking of minor league talent doesn't always equate to success down the road. If it did, the Royals would be running away with the AL Central. The Brewers have a core of talent in their 20's at the major league level now, Gomez, Segura, Lucroy, that a lot of teams would like to have. Braun is still just 29 too. Draft isn't the only method of obtaining talent either. Aoki is a prime example. The Brewers didn't have a top of the line farm system when they dealt for Greinke either, but they still managed a package good enough to land him in a deal. A team like the Brewers is always going to be on the edge as far as pitching goes. Some years will be fine and the team will contend. What happens over the next 3-4 years depends on whether 2 or 3 of the arms now at AA and AAA (Nelson, Jungmann, Thornburg, Hellweg, Pena) or already in the majors (Peralta), become solid major league starters or bring one or two back in deals.

[monty57]

It's laughable to me that Houston/Miami are allowed to operate below 40mil in team payroll. I'm pretty sure they will have revenue sharing sent their way each at or above 40mil without a Single Paying Fan watching a home game! Where is that money put in to on the Ballclub? If the team doesn't spend as much money as they are to get in Revenue Sharing then they shouldn't have any money sent to them. It should be forfeited back.

 

I don't know, maybe they're using some of the money to polish their World Series trophies. Isn't winning the World Series the goal for a franchise, and if so, isn't it laughable that a team which has been in existence since 1969 and hasn't won a World Series would look down on a team which has only been in existence since 1993, but has two World Series championships? Add that it's a safe bet that Miami will make the playoffs again before the Brewers will, and I don't think the Brewers (or their fans) should be doing any laughing at Miami.

 

There are a lot of ways to build a team, but I see three basic frameworks to build a championship-caliber team:

 

1) Operate in a big market, where you can buy good players in the free agent market, extend your players when they near free agency to "market value" deals, and trade your prospects for high-priced vets. This is where the Brewers have been operating, but the obvious problem is that they don't operate in a big market, and have only been able to "rent" here for a while, as they increase revenue streams and greatly increased payroll from the rock-bottom levels it was at near the end of the Selig era. One note is that even though this strategy should be the easiest for those with the resources, many big spending teams without a good plan often flounder, and with the heavy "luxury taxes" in place, even the Yankees are shying away from this strategy.

 

2) Use the "Marlin model." Stockpile young talent. Let that talent mature while paying the MLB team league minimum salaries. Once the talent matures, spend a lot of money on veterans for a one-year shot at the title. Sell everyone after that shot (if successful) or mid-year (if unsuccessful) for a boatload of young talent and start the cycle over. This isn't a plan that keeps the fans happy, but it has proven successful.

 

3) Continually cycle talent, keeping a malleable core of young, talented MLB players, while always looking at any possible means to keep the farm filled with young talent. This path is not easy, and it takes the willpower to institute a long-term plan and to stick with it, even when fans and the media "talking heads" are ripping you for not "going for it." The GM isn't always going to be popular, as oftentimes fans and the media can be very short-sighted and can also get "married" to players on the roster. Some moves will make the fans immediately happy, while some won't, but that can't be the goal. The goal always has to be that any move has to fit into the long-term plan in place.

 

Bottom line is that without a long-term plan, you'll often find yourself in no-man's land. Maybe you luck into success every now and then, but generally you're just going to be a nameless face in the crowd.

[Oxy]

It's laughable to me that Houston/Miami are allowed to operate below 40mil in team payroll. I'm pretty sure they will have revenue sharing sent their way each at or above 40mil without a Single Paying Fan watching a home game! Where is that money put in to on the Ballclub? If the team doesn't spend as much money as they are to get in Revenue Sharing then they shouldn't have any money sent to them. It should be forfeited back.

 

I don't know, maybe they're using some of the money to polish their World Series trophies. Isn't winning the World Series the goal for a franchise, and if so, isn't it laughable that a team which has been in existence since 1969 and hasn't won a World Series would look down on a team which has only been in existence since 1993, but has two World Series championships? Add that it's a safe bet that Miami will make the playoffs again before the Brewers will, and I don't think the Brewers (or their fans) should be doing any laughing at Miami.

 

There are a lot of ways to build a team, but I see three basic frameworks to build a championship-caliber team:

 

1) Operate in a big market, where you can buy good players in the free agent market, extend your players when they near free agency to "market value" deals, and trade your prospects for high-priced vets. This is where the Brewers have been operating, but the obvious problem is that they don't operate in a big market, and have only been able to "rent" here for a while, as they increase revenue streams and greatly increased payroll from the rock-bottom levels it was at near the end of the Selig era. One note is that even though this strategy should be the easiest for those with the resources, many big spending teams without a good plan often flounder, and with the heavy "luxury taxes" in place, even the Yankees are shying away from this strategy.

 

2) Use the "Marlin model." Stockpile young talent. Let that talent mature while paying the MLB team league minimum salaries. Once the talent matures, spend a lot of money on veterans for a one-year shot at the title. Sell everyone after that shot (if successful) or mid-year (if unsuccessful) for a boatload of young talent and start the cycle over. This isn't a plan that keeps the fans happy, but it has proven successful.

 

3) Continually cycle talent, keeping a malleable core of young, talented MLB players, while always looking at any possible means to keep the farm filled with young talent. This path is not easy, and it takes the willpower to institute a long-term plan and to stick with it, even when fans and the media "talking heads" are ripping you for not "going for it." The GM isn't always going to be popular, as oftentimes fans and the media can be very short-sighted and can also get "married" to players on the roster. Some moves will make the fans immediately happy, while some won't, but that can't be the goal. The goal always has to be that any move has to fit into the long-term plan in place.

 

Bottom line is that without a long-term plan, you'll often find yourself in no-man's land. Maybe you luck into success every now and then, but generally you're just going to be a nameless face in the crowd.

 

Other than Oakland, even those small market builders lock up their studs though. Longoria, Mauer, Tulowitzki, etc.

[The stache]

Having a great ranking of minor league talent doesn't always equate to success down the road.

 

Don't you think I know that?

 

Sure there's always a chance that the minor league talent in Miami and Houston doesn't pan out. But there's an even smaller chance that the minor league talent the Brewers have is being underrated. What is the likelihood that all these different publications are wrong, and the Brewer farm system is actually better than is being reported? Yes, we have a good core in Segura (if we can keep him), Lucroy, Gomez (if he's able to keep performing at his 2013 level) and Braun (if he's not dogged by Major League baseball the rest of his career, and if he's not suspended).

 

 

 

Draft isn't the only method of obtaining talent either.

 

You're right. You can trade for young talent, also. In order to do so, you have to have talent at the Major League level that you're willing to part with, or young talent that another team finds attractive. Who in our minor league system could we trade? Our sixth best prospect is projected as a career bench player. Our #1 prospect is undersized, and was struggling mightily at AAA.

 

We don't have any more Zack Greinkes on this team. The players that might be most attractive to other teams are Corey Hart, who is over 30 now with a history of injuries, and Aramis Ramirez, who is about to turn 35.

 

 

The Brewers didn't have a top of the line farm system when they dealt for Greinke either, but they still managed a package good enough to land him in a deal.

 

The Brewers had the #10 ranked organizational talent in 2009, and #13 in 2010. We were in the top third of farm systems.

 

Milwaukee acquired Greinke in a trade on December 10th, 2010. The Brewers at that time had 4 prospects who were in the top 100 (or had just recently been); Jeremy Jefferies (#100 in 2009), and Alcides Escobar (#12), both of whom were sent to Kansas City. They also received Lorenzo Cain, our eighth ranked prospect at the time. We also had Brett Lawrie (#59) and Mat Gamel (#89).

 

Entering the 2013 season, the Brewers were ranked 23rd out of 30 teams by Baseball America, and we do not currently have a single top 100 prospect in baseball.

[monty57]

Other than Oakland, even those small market builders lock up their studs though. Longoria, Mauer, Tulowitzki, etc.

 

I have no problem with extending players, but I think it should be done early in their pre-arby years to get the biggest discount, and I think that you still have to be willing to trade the player if the right situation arises. If you could somehow take away all the issues surrounding Braun, he is the one player we could use to instantly bring tons of young talent into the system. There would be repercussions to this, of course, so it would have to be the right situation to do it, but it could be done.

 

It needs to be mentioned that while signing these contracts can have positive effects on a franchise, they can also seriously set a franchise back, as is illustrated in Minnesota, where the Mauer contract is really hurting them. If Braun is indeed suspended 100 games (as the MLB appears to be shooting for), or if he gets an injury that keeps him out an extended period, we have no chance of competing. Regardless, by the end of Braun's contract (as is the case of most contracts signed through a player's late 30's) he will not be living up to what he is being paid unless you're measuring it on extra fan attendance to watch him hit "milestone" marks.

 

But it's not Braun's deal that I'm arguing against. The extensions I don't like are the ones where the team waits until the player is in year 2 or 3 of arby before offering an extension. By that time, you don't get much of a discount, and there are obviously question marks surrounding the player or else the team would've offered the extension long before they did. I also don't like signing big money, multi-year deals to free agents in their 30's, as they will probably end badly. Both of these have been used often by Melvin, and combined with the fact that he rarely ever trades older players for younger players are the big reason we're in the situation we're currently in.

 

I'm a little more negative than others because while I share the 'stache's outlook on our prospects (btw thanks 'stache for the great posts), I think that our "trade chips" at the MLB are almost all damaged goods at this point. Hart hasn't even played this season and the trade deadline is weeks away. Ramirez has already missed significant time with his knee, and hasn't had it repaired, so it could blow at any time. Gallardo has lost velocity which is making him a very average pitcher. Estrada's looking like a back-of-the-rotation starter. Braun is facing a big suspension, fans nationwide think he's a cheater, and he's got what could be a serious injury to his hand/thumb which has effected him for about a month, hasn't improved and may send him to the DL. Axford lost his closer's job. Neither Lucroy nor Maldonado have hit very well, and Weeks is looking more and more like a bad player who occasionally has a hot streak.

 

In other words, we'd be "selling low" on just about everyone who we would possibly trade who could bring back something of value except for Gomez and Aoki. We won't trade Gomez after just signing him (Melvin wouldn't do that), so the only move of any significance I could see us doing to bring in young talent is to trade Aoki, who may bring back one decent prospect. Other than that, we'll try to get fans to show up to see K-Rod get save #300 before trading him off for a middling prospect, and we'll probably trade Gonzalez to someone in need of a LH bullpen arm. Anything beyond that will be more of a salary dump move, which will have some benefit, but won't bring us the young talent we'd like to see.

 

So, I think that next year's team will look like a less talented version of this year's team, and I remain pretty certain that Miami, the Pirates and the Cubs will all see the playoffs again before we do. So yeah, I'm pretty negative on the foreseeable future of the franchise. It's not because of some bad play this year... I've been warning that this would be the outcome for a few years now. In any business (and in life in general) you can't continually trade your future for the present and still have a good future. It'll catch up to you.