Minor league talent of the really bad teams right now..Houston, Miami, and Milwaukee

[The stache]

Usually when a Major League team is having an historically bad season (by historically bad, I mean on a pace for potentially 100 or more losses), fans of that team will look to the talent in their minor league system as the "light at the end of the tunnel".

 

"It's bad now, but better days are ahead".

 

Bad teams get better draft picks. If you lose 100 games, you're going to get one of the very best amateur baseball players to add to your system. And if all goes well (if that player does not get injured), it's a reasonable assumption to make that said player will be up at the Major League level, playing for your team, in a few years.

 

In 2013, there are three teams having these historically bad seasons. As of the end of today's games, the three teams on a pace to lose 100 or more games are:

• 
   
  The Miami Marlins, 13-41, .241 winning percentage. Over the course of a 162 game season, that would be a record of 39-123. 2013 payroll of $35,720,400.
  The Houston Astros, 17-37, .315 winning percentage. Over the course of a 162 game season, that would be a record of 51-111. 2013 payroll of $21,133,500.
  The Milwaukee Brewers, 19-33, .365 winning percentage. Over the course of a 162 game season, that would be a record of 59-103. 2013 payroll of $88,837,366.
  

 

The Miami Marlins, prior to the 2013 season, had an absolute fire sale. They dumped nearly every good player on their team in exchange for young talent. Gone are Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez, Josh Johnson, Emilio Bonafacio, and Mark Buehrle (among others). And their only remaining star, Giancarlo Stanton, has been rumored to pretty much every other Major League team. Yet somehow, he remains in Miami. You can say what you want about Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria, but one thing you cannot say is that the organization lacks young talent. The Marlins system is loaded.

 

Top 100 MLB Prospects, currently (rank in parenthesis) (per MLB.com):

 

Christian Yelich (12)

Jake Marisnick (65)

Justin Nicolino (66)

Andrew Heaney (75)

 

Additionally, Baseball America's Top 100 Prospect list (April 2-16, 2013 edition) ranked the following players:

 

Marcel Ozuna (75)

Adeiny Hechavaria (97)

 

Jose Fernandez was the #7 prospect on MLB.com's Top 100 to start the year (#5 on Baseball America's Top 100), but he has reached 50 innings pitched, so no longer qualifies as a prospect.

 

In total, that is 7 Marlin prospects ranked in the top 100 since the end of 2012.

 

The Houston Astros moved from the NL Central to the AL West, reducing the NL Central to 5 teams, and augmenting the AL West to 5 teams. Much like Marlin owner Jeffrey Loria, Jeffrey Crain, owner of the Astros, had a fire sale prior to the start of the 2013 season, dumping salary left and right. To put things in perspective, Alex Rodriguez's salary of $28 million is roughly $6.86 million more than all the Houston Astros will earn combined. But Crain knows that brighter days area ahead. Fans of the Houston Astros know that there is help on the way. The Astros, like the Marlins, have a tremendous minor league system, bursting with talent.

 

Top 100 MLB Prospects, currently (rank in parenthesis) (per MLB.com):

 

Jonathan Singleton (25)

Carlos Correa (28)

George Springer (52)

Jarred Cosart (82)

Delino DeShields (93)

Lance McCullers (100)

 

Additionally, the Astros acquired third baseman Matt Dominguez (#75 MLB.com Top 100 List end of 2012) from the Marlins.

 

In total, that's 7 players that have been in the top 100 prospects since the end of 2012.

 

Then you have the Milwaukee Brewers, who have gone from 96-66 in 2011, to 83-79 in 2012, and now 19-33 in 2013. While a few key injuries have slowed the offense (Aramis Ramirez and Corey Hart), it has been the starting pitching that has most been responsible for the team's free fall (aided greatly by a slumping offense). Now, the Brewers have talent in their lineup. They had the top scoring offense in the National League in 2012, so one hopes that the team will correct itself somewhat, and at least finish the season with a respectable record.

 

When looking at the minor league talent, there doesn't seem to be any real help on the way.

 

Top 100 MLB Prospects, currently (rank in parenthesis) (per MLB.com):

 

none

 

The Brewers did acquire Jean Segura (#52 MLB.com end of 2012) in the trade for Zack Greinke, and had two Top 100 prospects on the end of 2012 MLB.com list (Wily Peralta #48, and Jed Lawrie #96) and one on the Baseball America Top 100 list (Taylor Jungmann #70). But they do not have a single prospect anywhere in their system currently ranked in the top 100.

 

So, how do the Brewers proceed from here? How do we restock our young talent?

 

Unlike the current situations in Houston and Miami, it does not look like there will be a lot of money available to improve this team going forward. Of the $88,837,366 the Brewers are paying in salaries for the 2013 season, $31,063,922, or 35%, is tied up in three players: Rickie Weeks, Kyle Lohse, and Aramis Ramirez. Add in two more players, Ryan Braun and Yovani Gallardo, and you have five players earning a combined $48,962,533, or 55% of the entire team's payroll. Braun is in the early stages of the prime years (he turns 30 in November), and has established himself as a perennial MVP candidate. Gallardo has been the team's most consistent starting pitcher since 2010, but has slumped in 2013 to 3-5 record with a 4.79 ERA. He's seen a drop in his strikeout rate (from 9.2 K/9 IP from 2010-2012 to 7.3 K/9 IP), and his WHIP has increased each of the last two years (1.215 in 2011, 1.304 in 2012, 1.484 in 2013). Kyle Lohse is signed for two more seasons (he will be 35 in October), and Aramis Ramirez is signed for one more season, with an option for 2015 (he will be 35 on June 25th).

 

Committed salaries for 2014:

 

Aramis Ramirez $16,000,000

Yovani Gallardo $11,250,000

Kyle Lohse $11,000,000

Rickie Weeks $11,000,000

Ryan Braun $10,000,000

Carlos Gomez $7,000,000

 

6 players. $66,250,000. This would account for 75% of the 2013 Milwaukee Brewer payroll. How much will Mark Attanasio commit for 2014 (he lowered the team's payroll from $101.2 million, a drop of nearly 12%). Corey Hart, who is being paid $10,000,000 in 2013, is a free agent when the regular season ends. Do we trade him for prospects now? John Axford becomes eligible for arbitration in 2014 (he is being paid $5,000,000 in 2013). What do we do with him?

 

The Brewers, in my opinion, need to make some radical changes, and they need to do it quickly. While they have some very nice pieces to the puzzle in Ryan Braun, Jean Segura, and Carlos Gomez, we need to realize that a year from now, the very real possibility exists that Aramis Ramirez and Corey Hart will both be gone. We also haven't got any starting pitchers in the minors I could see in the same position with the parent club in 2014. Jimmy Nelson, who turns 24 in a week, is doing well, but he's still at AA. If they do not move him to AAA Nashville at some point during the season, it is unlikely he would compete for a starting job in 2014, as the Brewers are very slow to move their prospects. Tyler Thornburg has struggled mightily since moving to Nashville, where he is 0-6 with a 6.66 ERA. While he has a near 3:1 K:BB ratio, he is allowing way too many base runners (his WHIP is 1.71). Taylor Jungman has shown improvement since coming off the DL, but he, too, is walking too many batters to show that he is ready for a promotion to Milwaukee (24 walks in 52 2/3 IP, or 4.1 BB/9 IP). Johnny Hellweg's command right now is worse. He's 3-4 with a 3.99 ERA at AAA Nashville, but in 49 2/3 IP, he has struck out 38 while walking 37. His WHIP is 1.45. The aforementioned Bradley is struggling at high A ball Brevard County. He's 3-2 with a 5.11 ERA, a 1.75 WHIP, 40 K and 26 walks in 44 IP. Our #6 prospect, Scooter Gennett, is hitting above .300 like he always does, this time at Nashville (.313 in 192 at bats). But he provides little in the power department, has average/slightly above average speed, and is average defensively. His OBP is made up mostly by his batting average (12 walks in 209 plate appearances for a .353 OBP). He can hit, but is that enough to warrant his being a starter?

 

There are just too many question marks, and I don't see management addressing them proactively.

[3and2Fastball]

There are just too many question marks, and I don't see management addressing them proactively.

 

No worries, we'll just trade Hellweg & Bradley for Mark Kotsay, and send Gennett, Morris & Jimmy Nelson to the Giants for Barry Zito....

[brewcrewdue80]

Mustache, in regards to comparing our minors to these two teams...

 

You just can't. What are they at combined payroll? 40mil? And 10mil of that or so are to players not even on Miami?...Not looking it up at the moment.

 

These two teams have been trading away for prospects. Add to it success in a couple draft picks vs. non with ours and yeah they have a better Minor League system than us.

 

The thing with Miami is Loria is a criminal. He's taking every prospect he can get. Don't forget they have "Failing" Uber Pitching Prospect 2 years ago #6 was it? Jacob Turner. He's one of those, there's a reason we say Prospect attached to their name because they don't always pan out players. Anyway, Loria is flat out finding a core of players like Selig and with Stanton,Fernandez,Heccha....whatever,Yelich. Those 4 are what will get him hmm, a cool 700mil selling the franchise end of 2014. Nice profit for someone who was "Loaned 160ish mil" to by the club. Pay next to nothing for a new stadium. And afterwards make over half billion in profits. It's sickening, and the stench of Selig is contributing to this. You know he's making Millions off this deal as a friend allowing it to happen. Screw Selig God I hate him!

 

Then you have the Astros. Again this is a Franchise in Rebuild mode for must be 5years now? You had better have a core of prospects from that amount of time rebuilding.

 

Mustache, I feel your pain in regards to our complete lack of upcoming prospects. It's sad to hang our hats on not a 1st or 2nd round pick but a 3rd rounder on Thornburg as really our best Pitching Prospect. Missing the boat on Fernandez taking Jungmann and Bradley it just happens. Failed picks. Meanwhile we have Roache/Coulter/Haniger getting ready to begin their 2nd year with our franchise. I would be willing to bet Haniger is top 100 rated prospect next season. Roache likely too if his Avg. rises up above .270 at end of season.

 

Let's face it 2010 miss on Covey and then 2011 miss on Jungmann/Bradley this after trading away pretty much all our 1st rd picks the years prior leaves us in bad shape in rankings currently.

at 26th in 2009 you're not expecting a make or break kind of player which is why I hate they picked a College player in Arnett vs. a HS player to groom who has potential. I mean think about it? If you have a HS aged player on your draft board in the same line as a College player then doesn't the 4year development suggest that at age 21/22 the HS player will be better than the College player? You trade away you SSs Escobar/Hardy and Nick Franklin is there and you draft a College pitcher?

 

Reymond Fuentes is over .300 in AA, Slade Heathcoat is #63, Levon Washington didn't sign, Steve Baron seems a bust, Matt Davidson is #77, Tyler Skaggs #10, Chris Owings batting .335 in AAA

That's the other HS players drafted in the 1st round so 1bust, 1 non signee, 4 top 100 prospects today and 2 that are batting .300+ in their 4th year development...meaning when they would be graduating College and entering this June's Draft.

That's way ahead of the curve of drafting College Pitching! Yet the Brewers do it time and time again! Just have the patience to bring a player up 4-5 years from HS for Cripes Sake@!

Nick Franklin/Tyler Skaggs the two picks directly under ours that year vs. Arnett and Kentrail Davis. Followed by Covey. Followed by Jungmann/Bradley. There should be

 

Nobody...in the draft room from those 3years left in the organization after tomorrow. The worst May/Calendar month in Team history reflects on that track record. Those 5picks if went HS directly below them would be Nick Franklin,Tyler Skaggs, well Covey was HS pick, and Brandon Nimmo/Jose Fernandez in 2011.

Fernandez/Franklin/Skaggs are all top 50 prospects. Nimmo is 6th in Mets "Stacked" Prospect rankings and would likely fall in the 3/4th in our team's rankings. Nearly every HS pick is a Hit in the 1st round. That'd be 2premium SPs/SS/and OFer all ready to either contribute today or within a year.

[The stache]

You're right that the minor league talent can't really be compared, only because they have some, and we really don't.

 

As for the salaries, I posted both in the original post:

 

The Miami Marlins, 13-41, .241 winning percentage. Over the course of a 162 game season, that would be a record of 39-123. 2013 payroll of $35,720,400.

The Houston Astros, 17-37, .315 winning percentage. Over the course of a 162 game season, that would be a record of 51-111. 2013 payroll of $21,133,500.

The Milwaukee Brewers, 19-33, .365 winning percentage. Over the course of a 162 game season, that would be a record of 59-103. 2013 payroll of $88,837,366.

 

The Marlins went for it all by loading up on some veteran players, and it didn't work out. When the owner realized the team chemistry wasn't there, he decided to rebuild the team. You may not like it, but this is twice the Marlins have done it (once with Wayne Huizenga, the second time with Loria), and they've been able to get two World Championships (two more than we've gotten in 43 years). Now, I'm not saying that's the best way to do it. There's a way to rebuild your team while keeping some of your proven fan favorites. There has to be somewhere in between what they've done, and what Milwaukee has done.

 

The Astros and Marlins are extreme examples, but as bad as it might be now, the other teams have a much brighter future than we do. You can say they've had some higher picks. Sure, they have. We've had some higher picks that we completely whiffed on, or went for the "safe" player instead of an impact player.

 

No matter how you slice it, the Brewer franchise is at a crossroads. There are two roads ahead. Stay the course, trying to plug holes by trading the few attractive prospects we have left, and overpaying for short term rental All Stars, or, we can blow up the coaching staff and scouts, get a new general manager and manager, and start again. Keep Ryan Braun. Keep Carlos Gomez and Jean Segura (maybe showing Jean that we are serious will spur him towards signing that contract. If the Brewers continue to tread water, he's not going to want to stay here, I can almost guarantee it). Dump the other guys that have monster contracts if you can. Get rid of Kyle Lohse and his contract, and see if we can get some other team to pick up half of it. Do whatever is necessary to create some room under whatever Mark Attanasio's self-imposed cap is going to be. Get some scouts in place that know pitching talent when they see it, and the coaches needed to nurture their growth. These coaches are out there.

 

What we are doing right now is not working. Period. We might not have to go to an extreme like these other two teams, but we need to follow their example and start over in many ways.

[adambr2]

The idea that you can't compare our farm system to theirs because they have a much lower payroll and have been drafting higher is silly. The Cardinals have the best farm system in baseball and have had much more recent success and have a higher payroll. Texas is right up there as well.

 

Yes, it's easier to acquire great prospects when you're always picking high, but to say a team picking lower can't be compared would excuse our poor scouting, drafting, and development.

[TooLiveBrew]

No matter how many times objective analysis concludes that the Brewers' system is pretty bad, & that the Brewers need to change their approach in order to remedy that, the same laundry list items of excuses are repeated. It just spins this kind of discussion around & around without getting anywere, and it's odd to me that some people simply make the choice to ignore the facts on this topic.

 

The 'Stache has been making some outstanding posts on the state of the farm system recently, which are largely outstanding due to all the research he does. For anyone who feels like people are being too harsh or whatever with regards to the Brewers' system, I recommend searching out any of The 'Stache's recent posts on the system -- either in the MiLB or MLB forum. He has repeatedly taken the time to educate himself & come to well-informed conclusions, and he 'shows his work' so the reader gains from the time he bothered to take in making the posts.

[Funketown]

Agreed. This is unfortunately accurate given the state of the franchise. We could be looking at a long five to seven years...

[3and2Fastball]

Agreed. This is unfortunately accurate given the state of the franchise. We could be looking at a long five to seven years...

 

I don't think it will take 5-7 years given a motivated owner. I do think we will have some great draft picks in 2014-2015 and maybe 2016 and it'll be fun watching those ballplayers develop (unless Mark A trades them for CC Sabathia in 2015!)

[Jose Cardenal1]

Stache, while I share your frustration with the current state of both the big league club's results and the minor league's lack of stars, your forgetting one thing.

 

Neither the Marlins or the Astros have any talent to speak of at all at the Major League level, while the Brewers have almost as bad of record, they do have good talent on the club.

 

Take the Marlins. At the ML level they have one proven stud (abeit hurt) in Stanton, but that is it. I am going to say that for the Brewers you could say that Jean Segura is the equivelent of Stanton. That means if we really only cared about building the farm system (since we are going nowhere at the ML level) we could trade away Braun, Gomez, Aoki & Ramirez. How many top 100 prospects you think we should get back in those trades? I say 7. Braun - at least 3 (including at least one top 10), Gomez - 2 (the contract extension helps) and one each for Aoki and Ramirez.

 

At that point we would have just an awful ML team (Marlinesque), but we would have a stocked farm system to go along with top 5 picks in the next couple drafts most likely. I am not saying we should do this but if all you care about is the state of the farm system when the ML team is scuffling, there is your answer.

 

My point? It is easy to say the sky is falling right now. It is never as bad as it seems and never as good as it seems either. This extends to your view on the ptiching prospects. I trully believe that by the end of the year you will have high hopes on at least a couple of Brewer pitching prospects. Too many of them to not have a couple sneak through. And while you alluded to better recent results for Jungman your failed to mention the May numbers for Pena or T.Wagner or Nelson's full year.

[The stache]

The idea that you can't compare our farm system to theirs because they have a much lower payroll and have been drafting higher is silly. The Cardinals have the best farm system in baseball and have had much more recent success and have a higher payroll. Texas is right up there as well.

 

Texas had the top ranked system in the Major Leagues last year, per Baseball America (April 2-15, 2012 issue). From 2009-2012, Texas had 366 wins, an average of about 92 wins per year. So, they weren't drafting high in the first round, either. Yet they've flourished.

 

http://img198.imageshack.us/img198/6650/rangersnumber1.png

 

From my personal stash of baseball references. I guess you could call it "the 'stash's stash".

 

Do you remember when the Rangers were just like the Brewers? Year after year, decade after decade, they couldn't even sniff the playoffs, let alone the World Series. The team started in 1961 as the Washington Senators. Then, they moved to Texas before the start of the 1972 season. It took the franchise thirty-six years to make the playoffs for the first time. They finally got there in 1996, and then again in consecutive seasons, 1998 and 1999. It was Doug Melvin's team that finally broke them through. They won the AL West all three seasons with records of 90-72 in 1996, 88-74 in 1998, and 95-67 in 1999. Combined, those three playoff seasons, the Rangers went 273-213 (.562). They were 6th in the Majors in scoring in 1996, putting up 5.69 runs per game (the Mariners put up an absurd 6.17 rpg, besting even Colorado). In 1998, they were second in the Majors scoring 5.8 runs per game, and in 1999 they were again second in the Majors scoring 5.83 runs per game. So, what did this offensive juggernaut do in the playoffs? In the 1996 ALDS, they lost to the New York Yankees 3-1 (a Yankees squad with an identical 92-70 record). In the 1998 ALDS, they were swept by the New York Yankees (3-0), and scored a grand total of one run in the series. Then, in the 1999 ALDS, the Rangers again got swept by the Yankees (3-0). Again, in the three game series, the powerful Rangers lineup scored a lone run. If you add up the 12 runs they scored in the first series and the 2 total in the second and third series, they scored 14 runs in 10 games, less than 2 runs a game. But they had no problem giving up runs. The Yankees scored 39 runs in the 10 games.

 

Then the Rangers got smart. They saw that trying to drive a square peg into a round hole wasn't working. They realized that you can have all the hitting in the world, but a very good pitcher on their game (with a good defense behind them) can completely nullify great hitting. They did exactly what I want the Brewers to do now. The Rangers, from the top all the way down, re-evaluated how they did business. They no longer chased the big name free agents. No more $250 million deals for an Alex Rodriguez, no more bringing in Jose Canseco. The Texas Rangers organizational mantra became "scout, draft, develop, retain, and reward". They put scouts with true baseball acumen wherever baseball talent existed. Their scouts covered the orient, and Latin America, Canada, and every state in the Union. This allowed them to begin growing their own talent again, talent which now included pitching. They brought in complimentary pieces from other teams, or players that for one reason or another had been discarded by other teams. Josh Hamilton had been on the restricted list for three years, and had a half season of Major League experience when he was acquired by the Rangers. In five seasons with the Rangers, Hamilton's 162 game averages were a .305 AVG, 36 HR and 127 RBI. His slash line was .305/.363/.549/.912. Did the Rangers uncover a diamond in the rough? No. Tampa Bay had drafted him #1 overall. They failed with him, as did the Cubs and Reds. And if Hamilton had been in Texas under Melvin's watch, I have no doubt he would have failed there, too. But the Rangers under Jon Daniels have created a different atmosphere.

 

The irony in all this is that it took Doug Melvin's leaving Texas for them to completely revamp how they approached "the game" in the aggregate (not just the one played on a baseball field, but also the part that involves scouting, drafting, coaching/developing, roster construction w/ free agency). Melvin's exit, followed by the gradual ascent of the Rangers' system, are not mere coincidence. The Rangers already had an established connection with the Latin community, so they ramped up their efforts searching for impact players in Latin America. They started drafting some good pitchers: Derek Holland, Tommy Hunter, Drew Pomeranz, Cory Luebke. They aggressively pursued their ace in Yu Darvish. Even after seeing Josh Hamilton, Michael Young, Mike Napoli and C.J. Wilson leave (moves that would have crippled a franchise like Milwaukee), they are cruising right along at 33-20, in first place. Their offense hasn't skipped a beat. Why? Because they had the talent in the minor leagues to soften the blow. They had a general manager that was not acquiring stop gaps, but veteran players that would fit well within the framework of the team. Even with all the money they've spent on players like Darvish, and A.J. Pierzynski, the majority of their active roster is home grown: Alexi Ogando, Neftali Feliz, Ian Kinsler, Elvis Andrus, Mitch Moreland, Derek Holland, Jurickson Profar, Leonys Martin, Justin Grimm, Martin Perez, Tanner Scheppers, Robby Ross, Matt Harrison. These are pieces in a puzzle. They're not all sexy pieces, nor are they all big names. They are all good players. For the Rangers, just like my Green Bay Packers, it's "next man up". When Adrian Beltre leaves, or retires, his eventual successor has already been identified in Mike Olt. He is a third baseman. He has been developed as a third baseman. He's not a guy with a bat and no glove that is going to be stuck at first base because the franchise that drafted him did not know what he was capable of. Olt will hit .270 with 25-30 home runs every year (maybe more), drive in 100 runs in the heart of the Rangers lineup, and he'll lock down third base. He's plus-average defensively, and has a rocket arm. When the Rangers allowed Napoli to leave, they found Pierzynski, an All Star with the White Sox last year, and plugged him in. Then they got Geovany Soto, a proven defensive catcher with some pop in his bat, to back him up. Should A.J. go down (he is 36 after all), they had another outstanding defensive catcher to work with the young Rangers rotation. And, they signed these guys to short term contracts (one year each). They did not overextend themselves financially, allowing them to sign either (or both) catchers for another season until their catcher of the future is ready. Jorge Alfaro is that future. This kid has a plus bat, average to above average power, a good glove, and an Ivan Rodriguez-like arm.

 

The Rangers have a plan. Anybody who follows the game, and has even a passable knowledge of roster construction, can clearly see that there are never any emergencies with this team. There's no signing somebody off the scrap heap, and plugging them in a position they've never played before on opening day. They draft a player, identify where they will play, and have clear organizational depth at every position. And now, the Rangers are doing something really smart that gives them additional depth. They are working to train some of their top prospects at additional positions. Jurickson Profar is the top rated prospect in baseball at shortstop, yet the Rangers have had him working at second base so he is available to play there if need be. They have him doing it even though the need may never arise. They do it, also, to make Profar more attractive to possible suitors.

 

Look at the Ranger minor league system. Profar, Olr, Luis Sardinas (another stud shortstop prospect), Leonys Martin, Martin Perez, Alfaro, Jairo Beras, Rougned Odor, Nomar Mazara, Ronald Guzman, Cody Buckel, Joey Gallo, Wilmer Font. The Rangers' cup overflows with talent. They continue to make good draft decisions even though they are annually near the bottom of the first round. They have the talent other teams want, and it puts them in a position of strength when it comes to negotiating.

 

The Rangers are a model the Milwaukee Brewers would be very wise to emulate. They are not the only one, of course. But then again, there is the Doug Melvin factor.

 

Will Mark Attanasio show that same vision, and clean house where it is so desperately needed? Only time will tell. I hope he does, and it happens soon. By his silence, he is sending the wrong signal to the fans. We don't him to paint a rosy picture. We want to hear that he's had enough, and that changes will be made.

 

You can only tread water so long before you either have to swim for land, or allow yourself to drown.

[The stache]

Stache, while I share your frustration with the current state of both the big league club's results and the minor league's lack of stars, your forgetting one thing.

 

Neither the Marlins or the Astros have any talent to speak of at all at the Major League level, while the Brewers have almost as bad of record, they do have good talent on the club.

 

I am not forgetting that at all. I said we have some pieces in place should we choose to rebuild the franchise (Braun, Segura, Gomez and even Aoki). I also think Peralta will be a good pitcher, but he needs to be back at Nashville, because right now, he's frustrated, and developing bad habits.

 

I know what the Marlins and Astros have done represent an extreme, and I am not calling for that. I am not asking for a fire sale of our talent. I am looking to gut and rebuild the framework of the franchise, the mechanism that selects young players, develops them, and sends them along to the parent club. It's possible to completely overhaul the scouting personnel, coaches, general manager and manager without changing a single player on the roster (though that is not advisable). We do need to cut off some of the fat, if possible, to create some money to address areas of concern that do already exist. Because right now, we have too much money chasing bad investments, Lohse being just the latest example.

 

Take the Marlins. At the ML level they have one proven stud (abeit hurt) in Stanton, but that is it. I am going to say that for the Brewers you could say that Jean Segura is the equivelent of Stanton. That means if we really only cared about building the farm system (since we are going nowhere at the ML level) we could trade away Braun, Gomez, Aoki & Ramirez. How many top 100 prospects you think we should get back in those trades? I say 7. Braun - at least 3 (including at least one top 10), Gomez - 2 (the contract extension helps) and one each for Aoki and Ramirez.

 

Well, firstly, Ryan Braun is the closest equivalent to a Mike Stanton on this team. A power bat in right field with MVP potential (or realized potential in Braun's case). He's not going to be traded, because at his salary, there's no way we could get equivalent value for him. Plus, he's a fan favorite, and if you're looking to rebuild your system, the last thing you want to do is cut off your revenue stream by alienating the fan base.

 

At that point we would have just an awful ML team (Marlinesque), but we would have a stocked farm system to go along with top 5 picks in the next couple drafts most likely. I am not saying we should do this but if all you care about is the state of the farm system when the ML team is scuffling, there is your answer.

 

The farm system and the Major League team are intrinsically linked; it's impossible to care about one, and completely neglect the other.

 

Bottom line, for the Brewers to be successful, they need to change their business model. We are not one of the big boys. We cannot get into bidding wars for our top talent. If the Brewers are going to survive, and thrive, they need to have a constant pipeline of young, talented players. When the time comes where somebody like Prince Fielder hits free agency, we should be prepared for the likelihood that he will not stay in Milwaukee. We should have a capable first baseman ready to replace him. Now, nobody could have predicted the injuries that hit Mat Gamel, but they did a disservice to him before the injury. They brought him up, and sat him on the bench. He got intermittent playing time, but was never truly able to show what he could do. When he did get the starting job at first, he wrecked his knee. And after Gamel, the Brewers had nobody else in place that could replace him. The solution was to move somebody from the outfield to first base (Corey Hart), and pray that he a.) was able to handle the position while maintaining his offensive norm, and b.) could avoid an injury of his own.

 

My point? It is easy to say the sky is falling right now. It is never as bad as it seems and never as good as it seems either.

 

Actually, it is as bad as it seems.

 

The Milwaukee Brewers franchise has existed for 44 years now (starting as the Seattle Pilots in 1969). The worst month in franchise history came in August of 1969, when the Seattle Pilots were 6-22. This month, the Brewers are 5-22. If we win today against the Phillies, we will have tied for the worst month in team history. Should we lose, we will establish a new mark of ineptitude.

 

Additionally, we have not led a game at any point in the last 59 innings.

Lastly, we just got swept in four games by the Minnesota Twins, a team that before they came to Milwaukee, had lost 11 of their last 12 games. The bad teams are getting well against us.

 

It is as bad as I am making it out.

 

This extends to your view on the ptiching prospects. I trully believe that by the end of the year you will have high hopes on at least a couple of Brewer pitching prospects. Too many of them to not have a couple sneak through. And while you alluded to better recent results for Jungman your failed to mention the May numbers for Pena or T.Wagner or Nelson's full year.

 

Nelson is the only starting pitching prospect I am somewhat optimistic about, and that's a guarded optimism. The fact that there are many starters in our minor league system does not at all increase the likelihood that some of them will "sneak through", as you put it. Our top pitching prospects are, collectively, having an abysmal season. None of the pitching coaches that we currently have in place instill any level of confidence.

[TooLiveBrew]

Take the Marlins. At the ML level they have one proven stud (abeit hurt) in Stanton, but that is it.

They also have José Fernandez, Baseball America's #5 prospect heading into 2013. He's 'only' managed a 3.78 ERA so far, but that's in his age-20 season. He looks pretty well on his way to being a darn good arm.

[Jose Cardenal1]

I agree with you that the Rangers (and the Cardinals) are the blueprint for what Milwaukee should be doing and a complete evaluation of the entire organization needs to be done.

 

However I still believe your current state of mind on the team is being over-influenced by a really (historically) bad month. The organization needs to change for sure, but we all need to take a breath and let this play out more. Your talking about very long range organizational changes in one breath and then pointing to very short term results as the reason. If the Brewers would have gone say a medicore 12-15 this month, would you be writing about the terrible shape the organization is in and all the changes that should be made? Probably not, yet the long term problems would still be there. Sometimes big problems get masked and small problems get magnified in the short term.

 

btw I am not an idiot. Of course Braun is a better comparisson to Stanton on the field. My use of Segura for comparisson was becasue he looks to be a Franchise player, very early in his career and cheap.

 

Stache you know way more than me, I am just trying to talk you off the ledge.

[rondoman]

Stache,

 

I got to say I enjoy reading everything you write on this site. Truly a knowledgeable guy that I myself have learned a lot from.

 

I agree with you this organization is in trouble moving forward. From a realistic point of view we are in major trouble when it comes to pitching talent and we need to do something now before the hole gets deeper.

[brewcrewdue80]

The idea that you can't compare our farm system to theirs because they have a much lower payroll and have been drafting higher is silly. The Cardinals have the best farm system in baseball and have had much more recent success and have a higher payroll. Texas is right up there as well.

 

Yes, it's easier to acquire great prospects when you're always picking high, but to say a team picking lower can't be compared would excuse our poor scouting, drafting, and development.

 

No Adam, the idea is that these two teams have been lousy already and have already torn down their ML players and turned them in to the All Prospects team Mustache is oohing and Ahhing over. And part of being able to do that is to literally have No ML talent on your ML team say for 1st-3rd year players who haven't reach Arb yet.

 

It's laughable to me that Houston/Miami are allowed to operate below 40mil in team payroll. I'm pretty sure they will have revenue sharing sent their way each at or above 40mil without a Single Paying Fan watching a home game! Where is that money put in to on the Ballclub? If the team doesn't spend as much money as they are to get in Revenue Sharing then they shouldn't have any money sent to them. It should be forfeited back.

 

Back to the comparisons. I just don't agree comparing the Minor Clubs of two teams that just dealt away ML talent for Propsects in return. Yes Miami has Fernandez missed pick by Milw. Yes Houston has Correa from a #1 draft pick the season after we went to the League Championship Series. Then you mix in the guys they traded for and yeah their minors are better than ours.

I don't think you can compare the minors to teams who went bellyup with trade dealing/Offseason trade. Trading away ML players for Prospects in the last 2 years without being in the Playoffs.

You want to compare the Rangers to Milw, sure that's on equal ground. But Losing teams who've traded for the future already and had successful 2011 drafts it's just not even going to remotely be close comparing our club to theirs.

 

The truth is 2010/2011 may go down as worst picks in back to back seasons ever by the club in comparison to the players selected around and after Covey/Jungmann/Bradley. And no one should be left in the organization responsible for those draft picks.

FWIW, We like to hoot and Holler at Tampa but they have zero 1st picks playing for the ML club since 2007 draftee David Price. And only Taylor Guerrieri in 2011 is looking to join the club any time soon as a solid pick. They got their Prospects from the Shields Trade, the Garza Trade, and Enny Romero was a Latin Signee. After them the 1st round picks none of them are top 100 propects nor appear any better than our picks.

 

We've hung around the .500 level the last few seasons now so we haven't traded away players for Prospect Talent...Outside of Grienke last year. and Segura in return became an immediate ML player vs. sitting in the Minors to be oohed and ahhed about as a top prospect for a couple years. We've traded for players and not traded for prospects it leaves us where we are. Miss a couple drafts Rogers/Covey/...etc. yeah we're barron of top prospects. I'm not defending Melvin or Seid or anyone. Just not a fan of this comparison in topic as basically, to be where Houston/Miami are today, we'd have to give back the 2011 season have traded away our ML Players in 2010/2011/2012 or this offseason for that matter to be where they are today. And succeeded in what amounts to our 2011 draft picks vs failed.

 

After this season/offseason and where we stand in Prospect land is when I can take it seriously. What comes to us from Trades/ How our 2012 picks progress that evaluation relates more importantly to me. 2010/2011 is a huge Failure. But with Roache/Coulter/Haniger/Taylor progress and our return in trades the outlook can be drastically different at this point next season. I mean think about Oscar Taveras. he was 97th? ranking in pre-2012? Then had a big year leaped to #3. What's to stop Roache/Taylor at least seeing some kind of leap like that with exceeded expectations?

 

I'll end my rant. I enjoy comparing Minors among teams, one because it's a headstart look in to who's the future in Baseball. Just comparing the State of our franchise to two teams who've torn their ballclubs about....

 

Well, lets compare the teams when Braun/Gomez/Hart/Gallardo/Estrada/Lohse/Lucroy/ARam/Weeks are all traded away leaving us with Segura to be the Face of our Franchise. That's what the left over equivalent would be to Houston/Miami state of the Minors.

[splitterpfj]

I think the Brewers have some future contributors in the farm system, but overall, the system simply is not good enough.

 

I think the current state of the major league roster is a mirror of the minor league system. The top of the Brewers' lineup is ready to compete, but the bottom is terrible...not weak...it's terrible. The bullpen has done a great job, but the rotation has been terrible.

 

When you look at the farm clubs, there are prospects down there for sure, but not nearly enough of them. Look at the records of those teams, and then look at the individual stats, you'll find some obvious prospects, but it's adding up to nothing, because the overall talent of those teams doesn't match their competition - just like what's been happening to the big club.

 

I don't think they've gone over the cliff, I think it's a fixable situation, but I do think fixing it will require change.

 

Texas does great in Latin America, we don't.

 

St Louis has been consistently good at the major league level, through a variety of means. Right now, their farm system is great, but it wasn't always like that. When their farm system wasn't highly rated, they won big through trades...Jim Edmonds, Scott Rolen, Edgar Renteria, Adam Wainright - St Louis got those guys for the likes of Placido Polanco, Adam Kennedy, Mike Timlin, Braden Looper, and one season of JD Drew. Chris Carpenter was a free agent signing, coming off a missed season due to injury.

 

For years, the Cardinals got key contributors in exchange for solid role players, and now, their farm system has moved to the top of the list. They won one way, and now they're winning another.

 

There's not "one way" to get it done, but right now the Brewers aren't doing enough of anything to build success.

[PrinceFielderx1]

When I see that 88 million payroll that we have this year and I see our record I'm past the point of being upset and angry, I'm thinking that we must be miss managing large portions of the payroll by putting it towards things that we don't need to. Mainly the offense. I'd like to see the Brewers dump some more salary like 20 million or more and instead of spending that extra money on the 25 man roster, I'd like to see them use it to expand their presence internationally. I want to see them invest a ton of money internationally and combine that with the top draft picks that they will likely receive this next season, and perhaps the year after.

 

Perhaps in order to do this we need to get rid of Doug Melvin and have a new GM establish a new scouting director who is known for having success internationally and domestically. I do think that expectations were really high heading into this season for Mark A and Doug Melvin and the fact that they have come up so short of those expectations that will be enough for Mark A to say enough is enough and it's time for a new smarter approach and fire Doug Melvin. An approach that starts with doing a much better job drafting pitching.

[adambr2]

The idea that you can't compare our farm system to theirs because they have a much lower payroll and have been drafting higher is silly. The Cardinals have the best farm system in baseball and have had much more recent success and have a higher payroll. Texas is right up there as well.

 

Yes, it's easier to acquire great prospects when you're always picking high, but to say a team picking lower can't be compared would excuse our poor scouting, drafting, and development.

 

No Adam, the idea is that these two teams have been lousy already and have already torn down their ML players and turned them in to the All Prospects team Mustache is oohing and Ahhing over. And part of being able to do that is to literally have No ML talent on your ML team say for 1st-3rd year players who haven't reach Arb yet.

 

It's laughable to me that Houston/Miami are allowed to operate below 40mil in team payroll. I'm pretty sure they will have revenue sharing sent their way each at or above 40mil without a Single Paying Fan watching a home game! Where is that money put in to on the Ballclub? If the team doesn't spend as much money as they are to get in Revenue Sharing then they shouldn't have any money sent to them. It should be forfeited back.

 

Back to the comparisons. I just don't agree comparing the Minor Clubs of two teams that just dealt away ML talent for Propsects in return. Yes Miami has Fernandez missed pick by Milw. Yes Houston has Correa from a #1 draft pick the season after we went to the League Championship Series. Then you mix in the guys they traded for and yeah their minors are better than ours.

I don't think you can compare the minors to teams who went bellyup with trade dealing/Offseason trade. Trading away ML players for Prospects in the last 2 years without being in the Playoffs.

You want to compare the Rangers to Milw, sure that's on equal ground. But Losing teams who've traded for the future already and had successful 2011 drafts it's just not even going to remotely be close comparing our club to theirs.

 

The truth is 2010/2011 may go down as worst picks in back to back seasons ever by the club in comparison to the players selected around and after Covey/Jungmann/Bradley. And no one should be left in the organization responsible for those draft picks.

FWIW, We like to hoot and Holler at Tampa but they have zero 1st picks playing for the ML club since 2007 draftee David Price. And only Taylor Guerrieri in 2011 is looking to join the club any time soon as a solid pick. They got their Prospects from the Shields Trade, the Garza Trade, and Enny Romero was a Latin Signee. After them the 1st round picks none of them are top 100 propects nor appear any better than our picks.

 

We've hung around the .500 level the last few seasons now so we haven't traded away players for Prospect Talent...Outside of Grienke last year. and Segura in return became an immediate ML player vs. sitting in the Minors to be oohed and ahhed about as a top prospect for a couple years. We've traded for players and not traded for prospects it leaves us where we are. Miss a couple drafts Rogers/Covey/...etc. yeah we're barron of top prospects. I'm not defending Melvin or Seid or anyone. Just not a fan of this comparison in topic as basically, to be where Houston/Miami are today, we'd have to give back the 2011 season have traded away our ML Players in 2010/2011/2012 or this offseason for that matter to be where they are today. And succeeded in what amounts to our 2011 draft picks vs failed.

 

After this season/offseason and where we stand in Prospect land is when I can take it seriously. What comes to us from Trades/ How our 2012 picks progress that evaluation relates more importantly to me. 2010/2011 is a huge Failure. But with Roache/Coulter/Haniger/Taylor progress and our return in trades the outlook can be drastically different at this point next season. I mean think about Oscar Taveras. he was 97th? ranking in pre-2012? Then had a big year leaped to #3. What's to stop Roache/Taylor at least seeing some kind of leap like that with exceeded expectations?

 

I'll end my rant. I enjoy comparing Minors among teams, one because it's a headstart look in to who's the future in Baseball. Just comparing the State of our franchise to two teams who've torn their ballclubs about....

 

Well, lets compare the teams when Braun/Gomez/Hart/Gallardo/Estrada/Lohse/Lucroy/ARam/Weeks are all traded away leaving us with Segura to be the Face of our Franchise. That's what the left over equivalent would be to Houston/Miami state of the Minors.

 

I get that we have MLB pieces that we could flip for prospect talent, but none of that changes the fact that there are teams that DO have good MLB players and still have a really great farm system, better than Houston's or Florida's. Having a great team and great prospects aren't mutually exclusive, and you don't need to draft high to accumulate a great farm. I don't agree that you can't compare the two. I would only say you can take into consideration that one farm has been aided by a fire sale, but again, there's still plenty of good minor league systems that haven't.

 

As far as Coulter and Roache, it's far too early to evaluate them, and they could take a big leap, but the early returns aren't encouraging at all. Combine that with Seid's track record, I'd say bust is more likely than boom right now. The best young guys on our team (Segura, Gomez), were never even in our system at all. That's not encouraging.

 

Of the trade bait you listed, Weeks is worth nothing, I doubt Estrada is worth much, Gallardo's trade value is declining with every start, Lohse and Ramirez may possibly bring something but we'll be required to eat a good piece of contract, and Hart will need a great month after he returns to have any reasonable value.

 

Braun or Gomez would be worth a ton, but they don't have the guts to trade either. Any reliever on our team would be fair game as far as I'm concerned. Given Aoki's age I wouldn't at all shy away from dealing him in a rebuild.

[PrinceFielderx1]

The idea that you can't compare our farm system to theirs because they have a much lower payroll and have been drafting higher is silly. The Cardinals have the best farm system in baseball and have had much more recent success and have a higher payroll. Texas is right up there as well.

 

Yes, it's easier to acquire great prospects when you're always picking high, but to say a team picking lower can't be compared would excuse our poor scouting, drafting, and development.

 

No Adam, the idea is that these two teams have been lousy already and have already torn down their ML players and turned them in to the All Prospects team Mustache is oohing and Ahhing over. And part of being able to do that is to literally have No ML talent on your ML team say for 1st-3rd year players who haven't reach Arb yet.

 

It's laughable to me that Houston/Miami are allowed to operate below 40mil in team payroll. I'm pretty sure they will have revenue sharing sent their way each at or above 40mil without a Single Paying Fan watching a home game! Where is that money put in to on the Ballclub? If the team doesn't spend as much money as they are to get in Revenue Sharing then they shouldn't have any money sent to them. It should be forfeited back.

 

Back to the comparisons. I just don't agree comparing the Minor Clubs of two teams that just dealt away ML talent for Propsects in return. Yes Miami has Fernandez missed pick by Milw. Yes Houston has Correa from a #1 draft pick the season after we went to the League Championship Series. Then you mix in the guys they traded for and yeah their minors are better than ours.

I don't think you can compare the minors to teams who went bellyup with trade dealing/Offseason trade. Trading away ML players for Prospects in the last 2 years without being in the Playoffs.

You want to compare the Rangers to Milw, sure that's on equal ground. But Losing teams who've traded for the future already and had successful 2011 drafts it's just not even going to remotely be close comparing our club to theirs.

 

The truth is 2010/2011 may go down as worst picks in back to back seasons ever by the club in comparison to the players selected around and after Covey/Jungmann/Bradley. And no one should be left in the organization responsible for those draft picks.

FWIW, We like to hoot and Holler at Tampa but they have zero 1st picks playing for the ML club since 2007 draftee David Price. And only Taylor Guerrieri in 2011 is looking to join the club any time soon as a solid pick. They got their Prospects from the Shields Trade, the Garza Trade, and Enny Romero was a Latin Signee. After them the 1st round picks none of them are top 100 propects nor appear any better than our picks.

 

We've hung around the .500 level the last few seasons now so we haven't traded away players for Prospect Talent...Outside of Grienke last year. and Segura in return became an immediate ML player vs. sitting in the Minors to be oohed and ahhed about as a top prospect for a couple years. We've traded for players and not traded for prospects it leaves us where we are. Miss a couple drafts Rogers/Covey/...etc. yeah we're barron of top prospects. I'm not defending Melvin or Seid or anyone. Just not a fan of this comparison in topic as basically, to be where Houston/Miami are today, we'd have to give back the 2011 season have traded away our ML Players in 2010/2011/2012 or this offseason for that matter to be where they are today. And succeeded in what amounts to our 2011 draft picks vs failed.

 

After this season/offseason and where we stand in Prospect land is when I can take it seriously. What comes to us from Trades/ How our 2012 picks progress that evaluation relates more importantly to me. 2010/2011 is a huge Failure. But with Roache/Coulter/Haniger/Taylor progress and our return in trades the outlook can be drastically different at this point next season. I mean think about Oscar Taveras. he was 97th? ranking in pre-2012? Then had a big year leaped to #3. What's to stop Roache/Taylor at least seeing some kind of leap like that with exceeded expectations?

 

I'll end my rant. I enjoy comparing Minors among teams, one because it's a headstart look in to who's the future in Baseball. Just comparing the State of our franchise to two teams who've torn their ballclubs about....

 

Well, lets compare the teams when Braun/Gomez/Hart/Gallardo/Estrada/Lohse/Lucroy/ARam/Weeks are all traded away leaving us with Segura to be the Face of our Franchise. That's what the left over equivalent would be to Houston/Miami state of the Minors.

 

I get that we have MLB pieces that we could flip for prospect talent, but none of that changes the fact that there are teams that DO have good MLB players and still have a really great farm system, better than Houston's or Florida's. Having a great team and great prospects aren't mutually exclusive, and you don't need to draft high to accumulate a great farm. I don't agree that you can't compare the two. I would only say you can take into consideration that one farm has been aided by a fire sale, but again, there's still plenty of good minor league systems that haven't.

 

As far as Coulter and Roache, it's far too early to evaluate them, and they could take a big leap, but the early returns aren't encouraging at all. Combine that with Seid's track record, I'd say bust is more likely than boom right now. The best young guys on our team (Segura, Gomez), were never even in our system at all. That's not encouraging.

 

Of the trade bait you listed, Weeks is worth nothing, I doubt Estrada is worth much, Gallardo's trade value is declining with every start, Lohse and Ramirez may possibly bring something but we'll be required to eat a good piece of contract, and Hart will need a great month after he returns to have any reasonable value.

 

Braun or Gomez would be worth a ton, but they don't have the guts to trade either. Any reliever on our team would be fair game as far as I'm concerned. Given Aoki's age I wouldn't at all shy away from dealing him in a rebuild.

 

Depending on how serious the Brewers are about rebuilding Gomez could very well be traded depending on the return. To say the Brewers don't have the guts to do it right now is probably accurate, however when the Brewers management realizes that the season is already over with 3 months into the season, perceptions and plan of actions can without question change. The only two players that I can safely say that the Brewers will not trade is Ryan Braun and Segura. That's it.

[bball123h]

Long time listener, great topic, love the show.

 

The problem is, from the outside, we don't know where the internal inefficiencies lie. I think most would agree that over the past few years, the draft hasn't been as successful as we would hope. But where is the disconnect? How are prospects analyzed? Is the statistical side considered more of an anecdote to strengthen the argument for or against a player? How much weight does an AB in the cape have over an AB in the SEC/ACC/B10/High school? Is there some sort of formula that factors in both the scouting and statistical inputs to create a master list, or are these decisions ultimately thought out in Bruce Seid's head?

 

Much of the Cardinals success has come down a bit in the draft:

 

Molina - 4th round - 2000

Craig - 8th round - 2006

Carpenter - 13th round - 2009

Freeze - 9th round - 2006

Jay - 2nd round - 2006

Descalso - 3rd round - 2006

Adams - 23rd round -2009

Robinson - 5th round - 2009

Cruz - 26th round - 2007

Jackson - 5th round - 2009

Curtis - 5th round - 2008

Garcia - 22nd round - 2005

Gast - 6th round - 2010

Lyons - 9th round - 2010

Kelly - 3rd round - 2009

Boggs - 5th round - 2005

Rosenthal - 21st round - 2009

Manness - 11th round - 2011

 

And first rounders that hit:

 

Lynn - 2008

Miller - 2010

Wacha - 2012

 

And trading away missteps:

 

Cox to MIA for Mujica (current closer)

Wallace to OAK for Matt Holliday

 

Whatever they're doing, they seem to be finding way more contributors later in the draft than most teams, and have admitted mistakes and traded those mistakes for contributors on the major league roster.

 

Of course, this does not even address the second half of the equation: player development. How do you distribute ABs/IPs in the minor league system? Do you give absolute priority to the higher-level picks, or do you balance that more with the lower level selections? How much biometric analysis is done with players in the system? Do the managers/coaches in the system focus on winning (to preserve their job and/or get promoted), or do they focus on development at the expense of winning?

 

It's a complicated situation, but it's pretty clear something needs to be tweaked to improve the quality of the player acquisition system.

[splitterpfj]

My quick take on why teams might miss on a guy or two in the draft...

 

http://www.baseballintheblood.com/?p=994

[brewcrewdue80]

Of the trade bait you listed, Weeks is worth nothing, I doubt Estrada is worth much, Gallardo's trade value is declining with every start, Lohse and Ramirez may possibly bring something but we'll be required to eat a good piece of contract, and Hart will need a great month after he returns to have any reasonable value.

 

Braun or Gomez would be worth a ton, but they don't have the guts to trade either. Any reliever on our team would be fair game as far as I'm concerned. Given Aoki's age I wouldn't at all shy away from dealing him in a rebuild.

 

 

I absolutely beg to differ on Marco Estrada not being worth much. 11 Games started this season. You take away STLouis starts he's thrown 50.1 or 6.25IP per start at 3.75ERA 7BBs to 44Ks. He's a Flyball Pitcher in a Hitters BallPark but only given up 2HRs in May out of the 12 overall this season.

 

I already found the team to use him to take advantage of a Hitters Ballpark....Seattle. And I'd package him with Either Weeks or ARam to fill a hole the team has in the lineup at 2b. How does ARam fill a 2b hole you ask? Kyle Seager has and can play 2b. ARam takes over 3b Kyle Seager plays 2b. Or just Weeks at 2b.

And/or with Nick Franklin up in Seattle, Seager plays SS and ARam plays 3b Franklin 2b. Either way helping remove a hole from the middle IF of Brendan Ryan/Dustin Ackley while adding a SP to supplant the likes of Aaron Harang/Joe Saunders. I deem value in that trade for Seattle.

 

I'd think Paxton would come over in that trade and we would ask for Stefan Romero for 3b with some other High Ceiling young talent. Seattle can handle ARam's salary and the occasional day off well, Ryan/Seager/Franklin would fill in. I think Estrada's peripherals in a Pitchers Ballpark he falls in to the 3.4ERA type pitcher a team like Seattle needs currently.

 

Now, others aren't as high on Estrada as I am and may laugh this off. But I think Estrada's framework Low BBs/Higher K per 9 moved in to a Pitchers ballpark helps what he is as a Flyball Pitcher. 8HRs allowed at MP 4HRs allowed on the Road. 1.7HR/9 overall this season but .92HR/9 on the road. 6.5ip avg start on the Road. 3.7ERA. Everything reads positive for Estrada moving away from MP. And that's why I'm high on him overall, He is a decent pitcher just gives up a Gopher Ball too many. and again only 2 in May. What does he do in June? I said it in Preseason I think he's the most consistent Starter the team has and I feel he's a 3.6ERA guy. If his June reflects that I see him having a bit of value in trade.

 

Of course in trying to improve a SP staff giving up your most consistent starter is taking a step back. But if the club gets a younger higher talented version of Estrada in return I think it's worth it down the road. And really, this is more in lines with I think Estrada is the best piece with player in trading away Weeks/ARam/or Hart to offset the cost in those 3. Gallardo/Lohse don't fit that.

[adambr2]

With all due respect, I think if we came to Jack Z with a trade proposal of Estrada/ARam or Estrada/Weeks for 2 top 100 prospects like Paxton and Romero and another high ceiling talent, we would be laughed off the phone.

 

Why would the Mariners want an aged, expensive 3rd baseman, albeit still productive? They aren't really in a win now situation.

 

And Weeks? He's worth nothing. Some team might take him on in a salary dump move, but we'd still take on some of his contract and get little back in value.

 

I'm not totally in disagreement with you on Estrada, but I highly doubt the league has the same perceptions about him as you do.

[brewcrewdue80]

With all due respect, I think if we came to Jack Z with a trade proposal of Estrada/ARam or Estrada/Weeks for 2 top 100 prospects like Paxton and Romero and another high ceiling talent, we would be laughed off the phone.

 

Why would the Mariners want an aged, expensive 3rd baseman, albeit still productive? They aren't really in a win now situation.

 

And Weeks? He's worth nothing. Some team might take him on in a salary dump move, but we'd still take on some of his contract and get little back in value.

 

I'm not totally in disagreement with you on Estrada, but I highly doubt the league has the same perceptions about him as you do.

 

Well, they traded for Morse and Morales this offseason who are in Free Agency seasons. Saying they aren't trying to win now would dictate they not have made those moves. Iwakuma/Felix and they were likely looking at one of Walker/Hultzen to be a trio to have for the Playoffs. Adding the missing piece at the Deadline if need be.

After this season the team loses to FA:Morse,Morales,Saunders,Ryan,Ibanez,Bay,Perez, and Shoppach. With Harang and Gutierrez on team options or lose to Free Agency. Now, I mentioned this in some other Thread, Gallardo being sent over to Seattle after their offseason moves coinciding at the time with King Felix up to be a FA after 2014. But Yo's struggles change my opinion to Estrada being the piece they seek. Seattle can easily afford Ramirez's contract with only 50mil in payroll for next season guaranteed to this point. Estrada vs. Harang's 7mil option has to be appealing as Estrada probably falls in the 4mil pay next year. With the team losing Morales/Morse a Cleanup hitter will be needed and ARam just slides in. While grooming Zunino to become it in 2015.

Your right about Weeks and his lack of value in the idea. But ARam with a Pitcher(Estrada being Payroll friendly) each under control through 2015. They appear to fill needs for Seattle IMO if they decide to push to win this season/next.

[The stache]

The Major League talent the Brewers have is much better. The minor league talent these really bad teams have is much, much better. That was the point of the thread. The other teams have a much brighter future than we do unless some drastic steps are taken. Sorry it escaped you.