Yo slow? (Gallardo's declining velocity)

[bjkrautk]

I didn't see a topic that directly addresses the topic, so I thought it apt to start one. I don't usually watch the radar gun on a pitch-by-pitch basis when watching live TV, so it was a real surprise when I went to one of Gallardo's starts earlier this season and saw him dipping into the high 80s with the fastball. He's never been an upper 90s guy, but someone who would start around 90-91, and pick up a mile or two as the game went on.

 

Apparently, his fastball has been trending downward for multiple seasons.

 

http://espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball/story/_/page/60F6I130409/roy-halladay-many-concerns-regarding-future-peformance-some-tied-decreased-velocity-years-past

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Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers (91.7 mph average in 2012, 90.1 in 2013 debut): His radar-gun readings so far this year aren't the greatest concern; it's that they were down last season that put them under more scrutiny. Gallardo averaged 92.6 mph in 2011, 91.7 mph in the first half of 2012 and 91.6 mph in the second half of 2012. His strikeout rate has also slipped slightly in recent years; by percentage of batters faced it has gone from 25.7 percent (2009) to 24.9 percent (2010) to 23.9 percent (2011) to 23.7 percent (2012), and through two starts he has an 11.3 percent K rate this season. Of any of these pitchers, he most belongs on a "watch list."

 

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There's another note on his ESPN profile news feed (from late April):

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28650/yovani-gallardo

 

Yovani Gallardo has struck out only 9.3 percent of batters in plate appearances ending in his fastball, down from 22.3 percent last season. Gallardo's average fastball velocity is 90.8 MPH this season, down nearly a mile per hour from last year's average (91.7).

 

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Out of all the disappointing aspects of the Brewers pitching staff this season, the drop-off of our most consistent starter is the one that has me most concerned. I'm not a pitching mechanics guru, and I don't know if he usually picks up velocity as the season goes along, so I'll deferr on drawing any conclusions other than to admit that I'm concerned.

[logan82]

I believe he started a little down last year as well.

[rluzinski]

This is pretty standard stuff. On average, pitchers lose somewhere around 1 MPH a season I believe. Gallardo has probably been a little better than average:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8173&position=P#pfxpitchvelocity

 

Also, have to be careful to look for "trends" when it's not even June yet. Hard to find trends over full seasons.