Scouting Taylor Jungmann (updated for latest start: May 25th @ Tennessee Smokies)

[The stache]

Another nice outing for Jungmann last night. 7IP 2hits 1R 0 ERs 3 BBs 5 Ks.

 

Over his last 6 games he's gone 38IP 23 hits 9 ERs 13 BBs 22 Ks. That's good for a 2.13 ERA. I'd like to see more K's, or at least a bigger gap between Ks and BBs but these are very encouraging numbers. And it's in Huntsville too so it's not like he is dominating at Low A ball. Does anyone know what his velocity is? Has it gone up since he's come off the DL?

 

Paul, Taylor's last two starts were not televised, but the games I've seen of his recently (two after coming off the 7-day DL), he was consistently sitting in the high 80's, low 90s (with 92 being the top range for the fastball). I'd say on average, he was 89-90 mph. We'd theorized earlier in this discussion that some of the drop in his velocity (at least in the games I've been able to see) might be due to his switching from the 4-seam fastball to the 2-seamer. I would say that he was doing a good job of maintaining his velocity late into his starts. He didn't appear to be struggling at all.

 

As far as his strikeout rate, as well as his strikeout to walks ratio, it's improving as of late, and that is greatly encouraging. His last three starts, his strikeout rate has been nearing 1 per inning; 18 K's in 19 IP. His walk rate is a little higher than I'd like, but so long as he keeps the total number of baserunners he's allowing down, it's not troubling. His WHIP for the entire season is 1.173, and over the last three starts, it's been a spectacular 0.789. His WHIP is far better than it was last year at Brevard County (1.340).

 

As of right now, tonight's starters have not been announced, though I anticipate that Taylor will be starting against the Montgomery Biscuits. The game will be televised, so I should be able to watch.

 

I'm starting to think that he might have just a little more upside than I'd originally anticipated. It's just my opinion, but I'd seen him as a 3/4. He might be a solid #3 starter if he can keep this up. The Brewers need workhorses, and we might get a peak of him with the Brewers later in the season.

[The stache]

Another big time start tonight for Taylor Jungmann.

 

Only one strike out, but so far through 5 IP, Taylor's surrendered 4 hits, 1 walk, and no earned runs (1 unearned). It's 6-1 in the top of the 6th. He's thrown 63 pitches through 5, 41 for strikes. I will definitely be watching this game tonight after the Borgias and Game of Thrones!

[torts]

Another big time start tonight for Taylor Jungmann.

 

Only one strike out, but so far through 5 IP, Taylor's surrendered 4 hits, 1 walk, and no earned runs (1 unearned). It's 6-1 in the top of the 6th. He's thrown 63 pitches through 5, 41 for strikes. I will definitely be watching this game tonight after the Borgias and Game of Thrones!

 

Jungmann has a 1.79 ERA over seven starts since May 1.

 

I saw this today online, that is impressive. having an ERA that low over 7 games is impressive.

[homer]

I like the fact that he's not allowing runs but the lack of strikeouts concerns me. Yes, I know it's possible to succeed without striking guys out and Jungmann is a ground out machine but it still leaves me wondering if he'll ever be more than bottom of the rotation. I hope I'm wrong and he ends up being one of those guys that succeeds without having to whiff people (ala Lohse).

[nate82]

I wonder if Magnifico would benefit in picking up the 2-seamer and throw that instead of his slider or at least a cut fastball instead.

[JohnBriggs12]

I like the fact that he's not allowing runs but the lack of strikeouts concerns me. Yes, I know it's possible to succeed without striking guys out and Jungmann is a ground out machine but it still leaves me wondering if he'll ever be more than bottom of the rotation. I hope I'm wrong and he ends up being one of those guys that succeeds without having to whiff people (ala Lohse).

 

 

Apparently, he gets enough movement on his pitches to keep the ball off the sweet spot. That's really the objective.

[TheCrew07]

Against minor leaguers...

[The stache]

I love that name. Damien Magnifico. If he doesn't make it as a pitcher, he could have a future as a magician.

[DHonks]

interesting to note that Jungmann's stats in the minors aren't that dissimilar than Ben Sheets. Given the recent push for hitters to focus on OBP and working the count, I'm sure Jungmann faces a tougher league. Also interesting because early in Sheets' career (and throughout the minors) he was throwing exclusively 2-seamers to work on pitch efficiency and going deeper in games. That's why in 2001-03 we often saw him throwing 90-92 mph. Then in 2004 he magically jumped to 96+. His fastball was the a 4-seamer and would be his best (strikeout) pitch for the remainder of his career with milwaukee

[The stache]

I'd be thrilled if Jungmann's career arc ended up at all like Ben's.

[DHonks]

I'm not saying it will be. But he's averaging more Innings per start than Ben did with the same AA WHIP. If he starts to sprinkle in that 94-95 mph 4-seamer from college, we could see a jump in k's

[TheCrew07]

interesting to note that Jungmann's stats in the minors aren't that dissimilar than Ben Sheets. Given the recent push for hitters to focus on OBP and working the count, I'm sure Jungmann faces a tougher league. Also interesting because early in Sheets' career (and throughout the minors) he was throwing exclusively 2-seamers to work on pitch efficiency and going deeper in games. That's why in 2001-03 we often saw him throwing 90-92 mph. Then in 2004 he magically jumped to 96+. His fastball was the a 4-seamer and would be his best (strikeout) pitch for the remainder of his career with milwaukee

 

DHonks I don't know why you keep ignoring the single most important factor here, Jungmann doesn't have a great secondary pitch. He didn't in college and he doesn't now. College hitters had no problem tracking his curve, the only way he struck out hitters with the curve was when they were looking for something else. It just wasn't a swing and miss pitch. If the curve didn't stand out in college, it's certainly not going to stand out in professional ball. Yes he's working to tighten it up and I hope he's making progress, but comparing Jungmann in any way to Sheets, or any of our young pitchers to Sheets, is an incredible disservice to Ben.

 

Sheet's hammer curve was his best pitch, that's the gold standard for curves in this organization, and that's why he was successful. He located the FB okay, but when he left the ball up he tended to give up HRs. I'm also not sure why Chad Moeller has gotten hated on so much around brewerfan, yes his offense was awful, but he called a great game, and it was Chad that got Ben to throw those high FBs up and out of the zone that hitters routinely swung through for strike outs. Chad understood attacking hitters through the strike zone, something that our current staff doesn't seam to embrace. There's way too much nibbling on the corners, especially ahead in the count, or wasting pitches trying to get hitters to chase.

 

If our pitchers won't attack hitters around the zone then they are just never going to be efficient enough to go 7-8 innings, regardless of being ground ball pitchers or not.

 

And for the record Sheets only spent one full season in the minors, when he was 21.

 

In 153.2 innings between AA-AAA that year he pitched to a 2.40 ERA with 56 BBs and 119 SOs. That's a 3.3 BB/9 and a 7.0 SO/9. His K:BB was 2.13

 

Jungmann is 23 and currently carries a 4.0 BB/9 and 5.4 K/9, and his K:BB ratio is only 1.33.

 

In no way are Sheets and Jungmann comparable, the only + or = in Jungmann's column is that he is the better athlete.

 

I get the emphasis on keeping the ball down, I get the ground ball ratio philosophy, but that's why elevating FBs can be so successful, and why I keep harping on it.

 

I'm not saying it will be. But he's averaging more Innings per start than Ben did with the same AA WHIP. If he starts to sprinkle in that 94-95 mph 4-seamer from college, we could see a jump in k's

Since you dropped this after my original response was ready to be posted I'll tackle this as well.

 

Sheets was 2 years younger and there are tons of pitchers who posted similar WHIPs but got different results. WHIP is a useful quick comparison stat, but it doesn't stand by itself, it's just part of a much larger picture.

 

edit. To illustrate the WHIP point. Jungmann's current whip is 1.155 and he has a 3.78 ERA. The guy immediately above him on the SL leaderboard has a 1.154 WHIP and a 4.15 ERA, but the guy below him has a 1.158 WHIP and only a 2.51. Gus Schlosser is the pitcher below Jungmann, and the big difference between him and the 2 guys in front of him are the BB and K rates, and the K:BB ratio. Jungmann and Merill Kelly have very similar ratios where has Schlosser has a 2.8 BB/9 and 7.0 SO/9, so he's gotten better results.

[homer]

Against minor leaguers...

 

 

This. Most guys in the majors will tee off on people that rely on avoiding the sweet spot. Like I said there are exceptions but they are rare.

[DHonks]

Fair enough TheCrew. Although I always thought it was Maddux that brought that high heater call to the game plan, he wanted our pitchers primarily working down and away, but he also loved calling for high cheese, especially in curveball counts. Of course, it could have been more Moeller, or a combination of them. Other catchers in the period also used the high cheese for K's