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logan82
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By playing the window strategy they actually made the playoffs and maximized the actual major league talent. Had they kept slow playing it for the future the team would have continued floundering at .500 at best much through the prime years of Fielder and Braun. Braun may not have been willing to sign a team friendly contract extension. All of this would have just meant that the last 5 or 6 years would have been just more of the same, bad major league teams and telling fans to wait for the future which may or may not ever arrive.

 

The problem hasn't been them trading away overrated and middling prospects for major league pitchers. The problem has been the complete and utter lack of the team's ability to draft and develop pitching from within. Had they just been a normal or middle ground team they should have been able to produce at least 1 or 2 servicable major league starters in the last 5-6 drafts rather than zero. They've had plenty of time to try and build up something from within on the pitching side after buildinig a decent to above average, contract controlled offense. Milwaukee played their window perfectly at the major league level and completely failed it on the draft. Do you have any faith in the current regime trading for minor league pitching given how terrible they have been at drafting it?

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By playing the window strategy they actually made the playoffs and maximized the actual major league talent. Had they kept slow playing it for the future the team would have continued floundering at .500 at best much through the prime years of Fielder and Braun. Braun may not have been willing to sign a team friendly contract extension. All of this would have just meant that the last 5 or 6 years would have been just more of the same, bad major league teams and telling fans to wait for the future which may or may not ever arrive.

 

The problem hasn't been them trading away overrated and middling prospects for major league pitchers. The problem has been the complete and utter lack of the team's ability to draft and develop pitching from within. Had they just been a normal or middle ground team they should have been able to produce at least 1 or 2 servicable major league starters in the last 5-6 drafts rather than zero. They've had plenty of time to try and build up something from within on the pitching side after buildinig a decent to above average, contract controlled offense. Milwaukee played their window perfectly at the major league level and completely failed it on the draft. Do you have any faith in the current regime trading for minor league pitching given how terrible they have been at drafting it?

 

 

I agree with this. I have no issues with going all in when the window of opportunity was available. The issue like you said is the complete lack of internal development and drafting of quality arms. They have had years to change the organizational philosophy and had to know that the day would come where it would come back to bite them hard, but they never changed and kept kicking that can down the road. Now we're here, albeit earlier than most expected, but this was coming whether it was this year or next or 2015. You can only go so long without having quality pitchers in your system as a small market team.

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I know a lot of you don't like Keith Law but he answered a couple Brewers related questions today in his chat.

 

Fonz (Milwaukee)

 

If Mark Attanasio decides to can Doug Melvin, how worried should Brewers fans be that Attanasio's distaste for rebuilding will just lead to Ed Wade 2.0? Terrified of the long, agonizing slide into mediocrity that we've seen here before.

 

Klaw

(1:48 PM)

 

That is a concern - he needs to accept that the Brewers are a rebuild situation. They've got the third worst record in baseball, and one of the worst farm systems, and no first round pick this year.

 

Norman (NY)

 

Who's to blame for the Brewer's horrible drafts of the last 5 years? Any reason to believe things can change in the next year or 2?

 

Klaw

(1:52 PM)

 

Looks systemic - like the process hasn't worked for them, unfortunately. I heard last week that the year they took Covey (and he chose not to sign), one of their top alternatives was Jesse Biddle.

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Maybe it's as simple as this:

 

I don't have problem with people supporting DM and MA, I do understand that there are many who will value playoff appearances and MLB win totals, I'm just not one. I have a particular end game in mind and that's getting the young pitching to match-up with other would be WS opponents. What I do have a problem is those same people who have been supportive of the organization all along complaining about the state of the MLB team or the farm system. Why? Simply because there is no having it both ways.

 

A more in depth explanation:

 

It's not reasonable to trade away an entire wave of prospects for short term solutions and expect to maintain a highly rated farm system. No team is that good at drafting and in the Brewers case it has been continually pointed out how many people were lost from Jack Z's original scouting staff since 2006. Some of our good crosscheckers were pilfered to be Scouting Directors for other organizations, and rightly so, that was and is a good career move for those gentlemen and they earned the opportunity to further their careers. In addition Jack Z took a bunch of people from the scouting dept when he went to Seattle as the GM. Again, not a problem, that's the nature of the business and Jack Z. had earned his opportunity to be a GM, however it is troubling how few posters understood the true impact or even noticed.

 

If we're continually making 1 type of trade, trading prospects for short term solutions which narrows our talent base and thus our competitive MLB window, and then aren't drafting well (which Milwaukee hasn't), and we aren't supplementing our talent internationally, where are the prospects to have a highly regarded farm system going to come from? This season and the state of the farm system are reasonable outcomes of the strategy that has been in place since the Linebrink trade. Eventually the talent well will run dry if nothing is done to replenish it and that's on DM and MA as much as it is on Seid and Nichols. The current state of the organization was the most likely outcome of constantly buying short term solutions.

 

Furthermore, when you continually sign aging players to market contracts you make the payroll top heavy: very few players eating up the majority of the available resources, not only does this limit your financial flexibility in regards to the MLB roster, but also in terms of signing bonuses for domestic draft picks and international players. By spending all of your available budget on the MLB team the ability to add additional impact players to the organization is further narrowed. For example couldn't sign international players because of K-Rod accepting arbitration, signing Ramirez, and so on, there just weren't the funds available plus having to budget for the amateur draft. If you spend all your money at the backend of the development process, on the MLB roster, then it stands to reason you won't have extra money available to spend on the front end. I still maintain that spending on the front end should at least be an equal priority, why wouldn't the Brewers want as robust of a talent base as possible? Especially given that MLB isn't a level playing field and we have no realistic shot at signing the best FAs on the market?

 

We can endlessly debate what should have happened or what didn't happened and why, but the reality of the situation is we are stuck with an unproductive MLB roster and not much behind it in the organization. If you're unhappy with the state of the MLB team, or the state of the organization, where we do go from here? How does it improve? In the short term if you want improvement then you're going to need to be willing to give up a productive and valuable MLB piece like Gomez or Aoki. No one is going to give up a stud pitching prospect for damaged goods, we need to give legit value to get legit value in return. If you aren't willing to trade Gomez or Aoki then how do we realistically improve our situation?

 

Yes I take an exceedingly long-term view of the organization, maybe to a fault. People have said I think that every team can do what TB has done but that's not true, nor have I ever inferred that. What I have said is that if TB can do it, why can't we? Why can't we beat them at their own game since we have greater resources at our disposal? There are a finite number of trades in a given year for young pitching and if you don't jump on them when they present themselves then you're going to be left out in the cold. There's no such thing as setting arbitrary dates, if a deal is available for the talent you seek then you take the deal now, because if you don't someone else will.

 

TB just continually beats every else to the punch, that's why they had Torres, Archer, Odorizzi, and Montgomery in AAA, all relatively high ceiling players which were aquired via trade. They value pitching and never play for a short window, and the strategy continually pays off. With a different front office we could do the same, it wouldn't fix our problems overnight, but in a couple of years it could definitely pay off tremendously. Signing more and/or better international prospects now won't shore up the MLB roster, but it could have if we had started in 2003, and it will help us in 2017 and beyond. If we stockpile impact pitching the rotation and bullpen will take care of itself, then it's just trading excess talent for different positions of need, and young pitching is the most valuable commodity in baseball.

 

It took 3 trades over 4 years to make TB's rotation elite, (Kazmir in 2004, Jackson in 2006, and Garza in 2007) but I think with the players we already have on hand we could do it in 2 if the right situations present themselves.

"You can discover more about a person in an hour of play than in a year of conversation."

- Plato

"Wise men talk because they have something to say; fools, because they have to say something."

- Plato

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By playing the window strategy they actually made the playoffs and maximized the actual major league talent. Had they kept slow playing it for the future the team would have continued floundering at .500 at best much through the prime years of Fielder and Braun. Braun may not have been willing to sign a team friendly contract extension. All of this would have just meant that the last 5 or 6 years would have been just more of the same, bad major league teams and telling fans to wait for the future which may or may not ever arrive.

 

The problem hasn't been them trading away overrated and middling prospects for major league pitchers. The problem has been the complete and utter lack of the team's ability to draft and develop pitching from within. Had they just been a normal or middle ground team they should have been able to produce at least 1 or 2 servicable major league starters in the last 5-6 drafts rather than zero. They've had plenty of time to try and build up something from within on the pitching side after buildinig a decent to above average, contract controlled offense. Milwaukee played their window perfectly at the major league level and completely failed it on the draft. Do you have any faith in the current regime trading for minor league pitching given how terrible they have been at drafting it?

 

This isn't necessarily true. Playing the window isn't an inevitable part of the process to put together a winner. I think that's probably something we want to believe in our minds to make ourselves feel better about the situation we are in now by remembering 2008 and 2011 with fondness.

 

Oakland and Tampa Bay have a lot less payroll to work with than they do, they don't play for a window, and their process works just fine.

 

I don't necessarily have a problem with doing it, as long as they accept that the situation they are in now was the inevitable conclusion of it. I can't say I'm sure that they will accept it. They may just throw some band-aids on next year again and hope for the best, which is just going to prolong the agony.

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I will this is the most difficult position Mark A has been in here since he bought the team. When he bought the team, they sucked, he came in and reinvoragated the franchise and fanbase. We achieved success not seen in decades in 2008 and 2012. Now he has the tough decisions to make.
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Tampa was horrible for a decade before getting to a playoff contender but still no WS banners. They may not even make the playoffs this year. They are definitely in better shape for the near term than the Brewers but I would bet they won't be in the playoffs every year from here out because their window too will close. Oakland made the playoffs in 2 of the last 10 years, I wouldn't say that process has generated much. Tampa is the darling right now but Oakland's process doesn't make me envious. They had their window in the early 2000's and then suddenly they weren't quite as good as before at drafting and developing pitching and had a 5 year period of failing to get above .500. Give the Brewers 5 years of sub .500 draft picks from here and hopefully someone who knows how to draft and develop pitching and they look a lot better. I also don't know that A's have made some amazing trades of ML talent for young pitching, they have had better drafting and scouting, but of course everyone has compared to the Brewers. The A's also play in a pitcher's park so I'd be interested in seeing the road splits for them.

 

Small market teams are going to have windows, they can't keep drafting and developing elite players every time, the hit rates just fall off. The A's have had periods of weakness the Twins have had periods of falling off and the Rays will as well. Just like the Pirates and Royals have struggled for decades.

 

 

I know it comes down to philosophy that some will never agree on but a team cannot be continually building for the future at some point the future has to be realized because there are no trophies for building the best farm system. I know the Crew07 said earlier he doesn't care about records or the playoff appearances because he takes a very long view. How long of a view is reasonable? Should the team have continued floundering for the past 5 years always building for 2017? or 2020? Especially after 25+ years of irrelevance. There is probably a Pirate fan and a Royal fan somwhere who has applauded their building for the future for the last two decades as well but at some point there has to be a payoff.

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Tampa was horrible for a decade before getting to a playoff contender but still no WS banners. They may not even make the playoffs this year.

And how good were we in 2009, 2010, and 2012 during our "window"? Like we're making the playoffs in 2013? If you believe that David Price (now on the DL with Odorizzi pitching in his place) and Hellickson are both 5+ ERA pitchers than I guess you are correct there is no hope for TB. Oh, except for those guys still in AAA whom I already mentioned.

Give the Brewers 5 years of sub .500 draft picks from here and hopefully someone who knows how to draft and develop pitching and they look a lot better.

Really? Now we're back to the high draft pick thing despite all the evidence to the contrary? Statements like that are the reason these debates just circulate endlessly as when the facts are misrepresented and twisted without actual evidence, it becomes impossible to have a rational discussion. If you truly believe that statement then you either haven't read all of the posts in this thread, haven't done any research on your own, or are just going to believe what you want to believe regardless.

 

How is TB any different than Milwaukee? Didn't we build our team through high draft picks as well (Fielder, Braun, Weeks vs Longoria, Price, Niemann)? They figured out a new strategy with a different front office right about the same time Jack Z started his tenure in Milwaukee. TB rose up the exact same year in 2008, has been the more consistent franchise, played in a tougher division, and has a better future ahead of them. They've actually been every bit as bad as the Brewers in the 1st round, they've just done much better with impact talent later in the draft.

"You can discover more about a person in an hour of play than in a year of conversation."

- Plato

"Wise men talk because they have something to say; fools, because they have to say something."

- Plato

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Really? Now we're back to the high draft pick thing despite all the evidence to the contrary? Statements like that are the reason these debates just circulate endlessly as when the facts are misrepresented and twisted without actual evidence, it becomes impossible to have a rational discussion. If you truly believe that statement then you either haven't read all of the posts in this thread, haven't done any research on your own, or are just going to believe what you want to believe regardless.

 

No that is not my point. The poster was talking about the A's being some model franchise the Brewers should emulate or implying they had done so much better than the Brewers. I was pointing out this model failed to crack .500 for five straight years between playoff appearances and were not competitive for some length of time. Which does help improve the current situation by giving them higher picks which does offer a better chance at getting some elite talent. I disagree with what I think is a romanticized view that the A's and Twins and even Tampa are consistently competing for championships year in and year out. They've all had windows of being good and being horrible. I fully agree it doesn't take high picks only to build a system, it sure helps if you have top 15 or better picks or get some comp picks in addition that was all the reference to the A's meant.

I agree with many of your posts that there is value to be had in developing later round guys which makes the Brewers ineptitude at developing any serviceable ML pitching all the more frustrating. One would think they could get lucky once on somebody. I saw your post somewhere detailing all the picks going back 10 years or so and it is amazing how woeful their development process has been. I think the development process has been as bad as just drafting poorly. Plenty of later round guys in the league have been coached or harnessed into serviceable starters or relievers. I would not expect the next Justin Verlander or Matt Harvey in round 5 but they haven't built anything out of those later round pitchers.

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I was pointing out this model failed to crack .500 for five straight years between playoff appearances and were not competitive for some length of time. Which does help improve the current situation by giving them higher picks which does offer a better chance at getting some elite talent. I disagree with what I think is a romanticized view that the A's and Twins and even Tampa are consistently competing for championships year in and year out. They've all had windows of being good and being horrible.

I think this perfectly captures what people like TheCrew07 have been posting about for years now. Yes, those clubs have stretches where they don't compete -- but obviously so do the Brewers. The point is never that they are 'always' contending for championships -- the point is that those clubs (include TEX, ATL, & others) don't usually have periods where they are almost completely out of real talent to cycle through the system.

 

You are always going to have ups & downs in W-L/contending. The choice a franchise has to make is how to build its talent base, and the Brewers under Melvin & Attanasio have been consistently choosing to mortgage the future for the present. And the problem we face now is that that mortgaged future has arrived.

Stearns Brewing Co.: Sustainability from farm to plate
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And how good were we in 2009, 2010, and 2012 during our "window"? Like we're making the playoffs in 2013? If you believe that David Price (now on the DL with Odorizzi pitching in his place) and Hellickson are both 5+ ERA pitchers than I guess you are correct there is no hope for TB. Oh, except for those guys still in AAA whom I already mentioned.

 

 

The Rays were about as good as the Brewers during our window. The difference being in the last 5 years the Brewers haven't built up any minor league pitching despite plenty of draft picks and even a few comps. The Sheets/Sabathia debacle hurt but given the track record who knows if they would have done anything more than wasted those picks as well. Had the Brewers shown some ability to draft and develop pitching they would be sitting just fine right now with a decent cost controlled offense and they wouldn't have wasted the money and pick on Lohse. But again I don't think the Brewers problem is because they didn't try and trade their prospects for pitching prospects they would have just been awful for the last 5 years and may not look good now because of how bad they've been at identifying and developing pitching anyway. They could easily have just wasted the talent they got back or been fleeced by some team who knew what they gave up better than the Brewers did. Their problem goes back to failing internally to drafting and developing.

 

Amazingly similar stats for the Brewers Rays from 2008 to 2012:

 

Brewers offense scored 3782 runs, hit .260/.330/.429

Rays offense scored 3783 runs, hit .251/.331/.412

 

Brewers pitching ERA 4.23, FIP 4.16, xFIP 4.01 with 7.6k/9 and 3.3 bb/9 .298 BABIP against

Rays pitching ERA 3.74, FIP 4.04, xFIP 4.05 with 7.4k/9 and 3.1 bb/9 .277 BABIP against

 

The Rays pitching has been better but it seems the defense has helped them a lot more than the Brewers and the Brewers offense has been better when figuring in the DH vs. pitchers component. Now imagine how awful those pitching lines for the Brewers would have been without Grienke, Marcum, Sabathia and instead more Doug Davis's and Braden Loopers, but with still no guarantee they would be sitting any better today.

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The choice a franchise has to make is how to build its talent base, and the Brewers under Melvin & Attanasio have been consistently choosing to mortgage the future for the present. And the problem we face now is that that mortgaged future has arrived.

 

That is exactly correct. And it will be fascinating to see what the Brewers will do about it. The 3 main options are:

 

1) Mortgage the future even deeper by continuing to try to add significant pieces by trading away the best prospects in an attempt to contend this year or next year. (This year sure seems unlikely, and it is doubtful that we have the prospects anymore to pull off the Sabathia or Greinke type trades)

 

2) Stand pat, give the company line about "injuries and key players underperforming", make a few coaching changes, add another Kyle Lohse/Jeff Suppan type pitcher and another Aramis Ramirez type hitter and try to contend next season

 

3) Rebuild. Rebuild the coaching staff, be sellers at the trade deadline. Trade veterans for prospects

The David Stearns era: Controllable Young Talent. Watch the Jedi work his magic!
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The choice a franchise has to make is how to build its talent base, and the Brewers under Melvin & Attanasio have been consistently choosing to mortgage the future for the present. And the problem we face now is that that mortgaged future has arrived.

 

How exactly have they mortgaged the future? By trading away overrated prospects and getting quality Major league pitching in return that netted them playoff appearances and increased fans? Adding back the talent they traded away and taking away Segura/Hellweg/Pena would not place the team in any better situation than they are in now. They'd still have zero top flight pitching prospects. They'd have an underachieving Lawrie at 3rd instead of Ramirez and Cain/Brantley in CF with Gomez likely walking away for nothing or traded for not much a few years ago. Escobar at SS instead of Segura at SS. But still a rotation like it is and maybe more money thrown at aged free agent pitchers. Their problem is they have shown zero ability to develop pitching. Ordorizzi is the only guy who looks to be a serviceable ML starter although not an ace. They weren't going to get Matt Harvey type pitching prospects for any of those guys and I really don't have the confidence in the scouts/Melvin to identify diamonds in the rough.

 

Think back to how excited people were about that Huntsville team with all the talent of Gillespie, Salome, Gamel, Laporta, Green, all of that talent failed and that was just on the hitting side which they've been generally good at. There was a time when the Brewers system was stacked and highly rated, unfortunately most of it failed and very little of it was on the pitching side. The team isn't where it is today because they traded away position players, it is because former top 100 pitching prospects like Jeffress and Rogers failed, highly talented guys like Parra failed, top picks spent on Arnett, Covey, Jungman, Bradley, Heckathorn, Frederickson, Lintz, Adams have produced zilch.

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Oakland made the playoffs in 2 of the last 10 years, I wouldn't say that process has generated much.

 

But the Brewers 2 playoffs in the last 10 years process is better? Given that the A's spent about half the amount the brewers did in payroll over the last 10 years, they have a cost controlled roster and young high ceiling starting pitchers and many young hitting prospects I'd say their process is much better than the brewers.

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Melvin understands that the Crew plays 81 games per year in a stadium that is tailor made for the long ball. So, draft and develop to your advantages. In most cases, this has worked as the Crew is annually a top 3 team in HR’s and runs produced. In most cases, the runs produced is due to the long ball rather than the manufactured runs that we all so long for the Crew to be able to do. By developing your organization based on this stat and this stat alone, the failure of the organization and the GM is that we have failed to produce “professional hitters.” Unlike the long ball (Which chicks do indeed dig), players these days need to have additional attributes to be a well rounded hitter. Basic IQ which comes from the Coaching Staff if a must. The inability of the Brewers to move runners over in certain situations is appalling as these players are making MILLIONS of dollars to be “professional hitters”. They clearly are not professional hitters because all we are trying to do is hit the [stinkin’] long ball.

 

STL Card’s is an organization that understands how to do it. You get a bunch of guys together who average .275 and above and have the ability to understand hitting to the opposite field, you don’t have to swing for the fenses in order to affect the game or keep the inning alive. You don’t get thrown out at 3rd base with no one out. Basic baseball IQ is what STL has over us. Again, that is on the GM and coaching for developing players to have certain mindsets.

 

Pitching. Unfortunately for the Crew, they play 81 games at Miller Park per year and our pitchers are that more prone to giving up the long ball—more runs to the other team. So are we developing pitchers wrong or is it just a cause/effect of Miller Park. Both probably, because when was the last guy that we developed who was even close to a Greinke, CC, Verlander, etc??? Ben Sheets. Yovani is good but Sheets makes Yo [look pedestrian]. Again, that is on Melvin and Co for not noticing specific talent in pitching. That and our pitching coaches throughout the minors are obviously sucking as well.

 

It’s a basic philosophy that we don’t have that other teams like STL has. You think STL would still have Weeks in the line-up this long? Axford? Lucroy? NO!!!!! They sent Boggs, their stellar relief pitcher down to the minors after he blew 2-3 games for them. This is a business. Suck it up Weeks and enjoy the minors for a few weeks. See how bad you work on your trade to never go back down there again. It’s stupid that we keep these guys on the ML squad, let alone the starting line-up!

 

ARGH!!!!! Now you’ve made me mad!

 

 

EDITED: language

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How exactly have they mortgaged the future?

Like you stated in your post I don't think they really have for the most part. They did this year with the signing of Lohse and not getting a first round pick but overall Melvin has done a good job of trading prospects that were not really good major league players. In hindsight maybe it would have worked out even better to trade more of these prospects that turned into nothing for pitching. Even when they traded serviceable players like Cain, Brantley or Escobar they end up with guys equal or better in Gomez, Aoki and Segura. It is more poor drafting versus mortgaging the future. If they actually hit on some of their pitchers they would be having a much better season this year.

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How exactly have they mortgaged the future?

Take a look at the MLB product on the field along with the farm system.

 

And the old 'the prospects we traded didn't pan out anyway' line is one of those repeated lines I was referring to earlier. As this point has repeatedly been answered -- there was nothing limiting the Brewers to trading for stopgaps instead of identifying other young talent.

 

So now, we proceed to, 'Those trades don't happen very often!'... countered with, 'Successful organizations are able to identify viable trade targets for deals like these'... countered with, 'But even if the Brewers did trade for younger players, they might not have panned out! Jose Capellan!' ... --> 'One bad outcome doesn't mean the approach is incorrect' ... etc., etc., etc.

 

Honestly I genuinely don't understand how anyone can make the argument that the path Melvin & Attanasio decided to go down was either all that successful, or the only/best choice. I don't mean that in a condescending way -- I just really am unable to analyze the organization & come to that conclusion.

Stearns Brewing Co.: Sustainability from farm to plate
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Honestly I genuinely don't understand how anyone can make the argument that the path Melvin & Attanasio decided to go down was either all that successful, or the only/best choice. I don't mean that in a condescending way -- I just really am unable to analyze the organization & come to that conclusion.

 

What frustrates me the most is that they weren't willing to complete the "going for it" mentality. They didn't win the Rafael Furcal sweepstakes and thought it was just fine to go with Yuni B at SS. They didn't see the problem with Wolf/Marcum and get another pitcher. Those 2 things would have really helped. If you are going to mortgage the future and go for it at least go all the way.... of course Roenicke might've screwed it all up anyways.... Arg!!!!

The David Stearns era: Controllable Young Talent. Watch the Jedi work his magic!
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ARGH!!!!! Now you’ve made me mad!

 

This pretty much sums up my feelings when I try to comprehend the Brewers. It's been pretty easy to see where things were headed for a while now. There have been some moves that could've prevented it, but you just knew all along that those moves wouldn't be made, and now as TLB so nicely put it, the mortgaged future has arrived.

 

I still watch every game I can, but it's with a dull feeling. After last year's bad start, at least I could hope the Brewers would see the light and trade Greinke, Hart, Ramirez, and Marcum (before Marcum got hurt), which could've netted them a lot of young talent. Now they don't even have anyone that they'll trade who will bring any decent talent back.

 

Probably the worst thing that could happen is they get hot and make Attanasio believe that they're still a playoff team that just had a bad start, causing him to make another stupid offseason move. I guess I'll cheer for a salary dump and a high 2014 draft pick... yay!

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

 

~Bill Walsh

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