General thoughts on the franchise.

[The stache]

A good GM should have had at least a decent contingency plan in place in the likelihood that these guys did get hurt again. Instead we had Alex Gonzalez and Yuni Betancourt, who are barely Major League players. When they did get hurt, 1/4 of our lineup turned to crap.[/i]

 

Actually he had Gamel as the backup plan. I'm not sure there are many teams whose plan C involves much more than barely major league capable.

 

So, his contingency plan to back up two oft injured player was a player that had just missed the entire season with a knee injury.

 

Good to know.

[LouisEly]

Before we get too excited about prospects and their rankings, let's look at the prospect list from 2009 that 'stache posted. While there are some great players on that list, the #1 prospect in baseball that year hasn't had a career much more productive than Lucroy. The #3 prospect hasn't been much more productive than Gomez, factoring in defense and that the prospect's best season by far was 3 years ago. The #5 prospect is having a worse season than Weeks, and he and the #6 prospect for their careers haven't been more productive than Aoki. Cameron Maybin is back in the minors. Porcello has not lived up to his signing bonus. Yes, a rotation of Price, Hanson, Bumgarner, Cahill, and Anderson would be nice. Fielding a team of Maybin, Alvarez, Moustakas, Lars Anderson, Escobar, LaPorta, Smoak, Matusz, either Beckham, Porcello, Fernando Martinez, Montero, Alderson, and Lambo would be brutal. And those guys were all top 50.

 

As for Latin America investment, four years later Villalona and Ynoa are still in A-ball and now average age for their leagues.

[brewmann04]

I soory but how much do you want to plan for issues especially at 1base.We had Hart then he got hurt and the plan B was having Gamel who thought he get hurt in the ist practice and be done for the year. How many backups did you guys want Melvin to have their, I believed he tried to get Overbay but he chose Boston.I can complain about DM but not when it comes to what happened at 1 base.

[Fear The Chorizo]

To me it's not so much having 5 prospects on the top 100 list every year, it's at least having 5-10 prospects sprinkled within the organization that have the talent to develop into top 100-level prospects at all times. Even the best organzations have plenty of failed prospects - it's the nature of baseball. Right now it feels like the Brewers' minor league system is lacking on both a pure talent and a developmental standpoint. It's not like there are tons of extremely raw and talented minor leaguers in their system that only lack good instruction. And it's not like there's a steady stream of middling talent available to hold their own at the major league level after being taught the 'Brewer Way' of playing the game.

[logan82]

Going back to 2008, I could make a realistic case that LaPorta, Parra, Escobar, Jeffress, Gamel, Salome, LaPorta, Cain, Brantley, Lucroy, Green, and Gillespie were all as good or better than anyone in our current system.

and that was just AA.(except Lucroy) I believe I still have a few team pictures of that team somewhere.

[TheCrew07]

As for Latin America investment, four years later Villalona and Ynoa are still in A-ball and now average age for their leagues.

 

I'm curious where it was posted, said, or inferred that signing international players was a quick fix for anything? Clearly that's not the case.

 

Signing international players is about expanding your talent base which will have long-term affects. Any players we sign this year are best case 3-4 years from helping us in MLB if they turn into super prospects.

 

Realistically the Brewers best hope is that the International draft becomes a reality, then at least they will have a shot at one of the top 10 players.

 

Furthermore the idea of drafting impact players isn't a short-term plan either, after the first round most of those impact players are going to come from HS and need at least 3-4 years development. I'm on record dozens of times stating that I prefer a well rounded minor league system... I don't mind high floor/low ceiling players at all, some of those guys will over achieve and some will work out exactly as expected, however I don't want to be drafting "move quickly through the system" players at the expense of legitimate talent like we did in 2011 with Jungmann and Bradley. TLB brought back that draft discussion thread in the draft forum, look at how many posters wanted other pitchers and how many were vocal about the Jungmann pick from the start. Of those 4 starting pitchers I suggested previously who were drafted after Jungmann, 3 were talked about by multiple posters in that thread.

 

I'm not sure why you continue to argue the whole draft angle, the Brewers have clearly been deficient or our farm system wouldn't be devoid of top end talent, realistically we traded for 2 of the better prospects between AAA and AA in Hellweg and Pena just last year. That was the first trade post Sexson in Melvin's tenure that brought back young pitcher(s) with legit upside.

 

We haven't been trading for young pitching, we haven't been signing it internationally, so if we didn't draft it what else was left? Yes I know, signing that stream of aging, middling, and averagish pitchers to 3+ year deals and trading for temporary solutions which got us to the point we are today. Hooray.

[rluzinski]

Well one almost achieved the ultimate goal and the other has failed for 25 years.

 

So what you are really saying is both failed at achieving the ultimate goal so neither had what it took. But really, there are many factors I would look at when trying to assess how well a GM has performed. I certainly wouldn't start and end with whether or not one of their teams had at least one appearance in the World Series.

 

I think Melvin is decent but if the Brewers can get a better GM, great. I just don't have much faith that his would-be successor would be better. There are a lot of clueless GM's out there. And I understand that I can't prove it, but with all the dinners Mark A always seems to have with aging starting pitchers before they are signed, I think he does some serious meddling at times.

[Thurston Fluff]

A good GM should have had at least a decent contingency plan in place in the likelihood that these guys did get hurt again. Instead we had Alex Gonzalez and Yuni Betancourt, who are barely Major League players. When they did get hurt, 1/4 of our lineup turned to crap.[/i]

 

Actually he had Gamel as the backup plan. I'm not sure there are many teams whose plan C involves much more than barely major league capable.

 

So, his contingency plan to back up two oft injured player was a player that had just missed the entire season with a knee injury.

 

Good to know.

 

Mat Gamel, Taylor Green and Jeff Bianchi were plan B, C and D. You are criticizing Melvin because plan E is Yuni? Exactly how many players do you think a team can reasonably afford to carry to cover each position?

[brewmann04]

Melvin had 1st base covered never expected this to happen 1 base not covered is not his fault.

some other issues can be blamed to Melvin. I am curious who call is it to hire the Scouting director and scouts.

[TheCrew07]

GM hires the SD, the SD hires the scouts/crosscheckers.

[brewmann04]

Thanks Crew well this i have to hold Doug Accountable for cause the Draft has not produced much as major league talent.

[xisxisxis]

It was also easier to keep a team together back then because the free agent market had yet to blow up. It was an era where teams colluded with each other to keep player salaries low. One has to wonder what this team would look like with both Greinke and Sabathia on it. That would have been possible if it was 1982.

 

In one sentence you say it was easier to keep a team together back then and in another you wonder "what this team would look like with both Greinke and Sabathia on it. That would have been possible if it was 1982." Guess what, if it was easier for the Brewers back then then it was easier for the Royals and Indians too and they wouldn't have traded away either pitcher to the Brewers. It goes both ways. So while I understand your point, the point applies to every team, not just the Brewers.

 

Seems to me that and fewer teams competing for quality players made his job easier as well.

 

A GM still had to come up with ways of getting players and with less movement of players it actually made it harder to add components off the scrap heap. There wasn't a huge pool of talent that gets cut every year or non-tendered because they were too expensive. While I give you the point that the playing field was more equal back then, there were still significant impediments back then putting a team together without having to make a trade. There are more options today outside of having to trade a player.

 

 

One almost achieved it? When someone almost achieves something that means he failed doesn't it?

 

Yeah and saying a GM who has a worse track record is better is kinda bass ackwards.

 

I think a man who build a 96 win team can probably build a team that wins a world series. After all a 95 win team almost won it.

 

He built winning teams in 2007 and 2008 and went backwards for 2 years in 2009 and 2010. He took a 2011 team that won 96 and "improved" it to last years mess and this years mess. The benefit he had in 2010 to improve the 2011 team was prospects to trade for the key components to the 2011 success. We don't have them now so what exactly does the brainiac GM have in mind?

 

 

I'm just saying Melvin is doing as well as Dalton did.

 

Again, I just disagree. That doesn't mean I think Dalton was a great GM. The Brewers have been cursed with a lot of bad GMs, but I think Dalton is still the best they have had and Melvin is next.

 

 

But really, there are many factors I would look at when trying to assess how well a GM has performed.

Such As? I don't think either GM was great. The Brewers had a better record under Dalton and reached a World series. Those two facts are enough for me to rank Dalton above Melvin.

 

 

I think Melvin is decent but if the Brewers can get a better GM, great. I just don't have much faith that his would-be successor would be better. There are a lot of clueless GM's out there. And I understand that I can't prove it, but with all the dinners Mark A always seems to have with aging starting pitchers before they are signed, I think he does some serious meddling at times.

 

Oh I agree about the likelihood of another GM being worse, especially with Mr. GM-for-a-day as the owner. Melvin is as old school as they come and at some point owners are going to realize they need to start looking for GMs that actually know how to manage an organization properly and not just some old or washed up baseball player (I'm looking at you Counsell) who says all the right things but is clueless at knowing how to accomplish anything. There really is a lot of room to analyze the success and failures of draftees/prospects that needs to be done to refine what are the correct skill sets lead to long-term success and how to identify them. When a team still has scouts who say "he just looks like a ballplayer" then they might as well have a medical staff that treats a torn ACL with a dung poltice.

 

Mat Gamel, Taylor Green and Jeff Bianchi were plan B, C and D. You are criticizing Melvin because plan E is Yuni? Exactly how many players do you think a team can reasonably afford to carry to cover each position?

 

Green and Bianchi? Now your just making Fluff up.....

[3and2Fastball]

Because of the 2nd Wild-Card, teams are much less likely to trade players at the deadline anymore, which puts the Brewers in a strong position to rebuild their farm system if they go ahead and trade Gallardo, Lohse, Weeks, Ramirez, Axford, K-Rod, Hart in July. Simple supply & demand and the lack of "supply" (less teams being willing to sell at the deadline) could elevate those player's worth and return

 

Unfortunately, Mark A is not likely to approve such a thing. And that is a big part of the problem with this franchise

[LouisEly]

Mark A. approved trading Grienke and Carlos Lee. He dumped Bill Hall and JJ Hardy when he felt they were no longer of value. I'd bet my bottom dollar the only reason he didn't trade Fielder is because the Brewers were in contention the final year of his contract. Not sure why he wouldn't approve trading any of those with the exception of Gallardo - given his age and being under contract for a few more years I can see why he would hesitate. But I think Mark A. understands the concept of sunk costs, and not making decisions based on them.

[monty57]

We could and have gone on and on about moves that were or were not made. While what happened in the past is the reason for the situation in the present, there is nothing anyone can do about that. Therefore, my concern is about where the team is today and where they will be going forward.

 

While the current MLB team has more talent than they are showing, they are not a good MLB team, and while the minor league system has some talent, it is overall a bad system relative to other teams' systems.

 

Because of the financial obligations we have for 2014, I don't think we can apply a "patch" this offseason, so without some trades, next year's team will basically be this year's team minus Hart and a few other minor pieces. It doesn't look like we're going to get a lot of help from the minors next year... at least not enough to turn us into legitimate playoff contenders.

 

This is why I think we need to do something ASAP to try to right the ship. If Hart and Ramirez were healthy, Gallardo hadn't lost his velocity, and Weeks hadn't forgotten how to play baseball, I'd feel much better about making a move or two and becoming instantly better. As it stands, I think we're pretty thin on players who we could and would trade that would bring back anything of value.

 

We won't "tear it down and rebuild," because that would imply that we could successfully tear it down. I don't think anyone's going to take the useless Weeks, the gimpy Ramirez, the too-old Lohse, or the reduced-velocity Gallardo off our hands. Estrada is not pitching well enough to draw interest, Lucroy and Maldonado would be selling very low, and Braun, Segura and Peralta are not going to be traded. Therefore, there's no worry for those who tremble at the thought of rebuilding.

 

That doesn't leave us with a lot of options, and we aren't going to be able to add enough talent to right the ship, but there are a couple things we could do that would help a little. Aoki and/or Gomez should be traded, with Schafer becoming the starter for the rest of the year. Both of these guys are talented with team control, so either one should be able to bring back a good, young, inexpensive player at a position of need.

 

Our bullpen has been effective this year. Since bullpens are a crapshoot, we should strike when the iron's hot, and see if we could get anything of value for the guys who aren't a part of the future. I wouldn't trade pre-arby guys, as they're valuable for the future. The exception to this would be Henderson if he is overvalued do to his "closer" title, and someone offers us a nice prospect. But, K-Rod could have some value if he gets some saves while Henderson's out. Axford (don't laugh) could have some value if he can string some good outings together. Gonzalez is a veteran LHP, which always has value at trade deadline. If we could pick up a high-upside A-Baller, or even a future bullpen arm for one of these guys, I'd do it. We'd add some talent to the system, while allowing guys like Hand, Sanchez and Figaro to get a lot of MLB action.

 

I wish we had other, better options for trades that could "turn things around," but unless Gallardo finds his velocity or Ramirez suddenly becomes 100% healthy, I don't see other teams giving us anything for our expensive, damaged goods. And that, my friends, is why I'm not optimistic about the future. We have a bad MLB team, we have a bad farm system, and a lot of the guys we potentially could've traded for prospects have lost their value due to injuries or ineffectiveness.

[LouisEly]

Axford (don't laugh) could have some value if he can string some good outings together.

In his 21 appearances since April 13th he has a 2.84 ERA and 22 Ks (7 BB) in 19 innings, with 3 of the 6 ER coming in one outing. I'd say he's strung together some good outings.

[monty57]

Mark A. approved trading Grienke and Carlos Lee. He dumped Bill Hall and JJ Hardy when he felt they were no longer of value. I'd bet my bottom dollar the only reason he didn't trade Fielder is because the Brewers were in contention the final year of his contract. Not sure why he wouldn't approve trading any of those with the exception of Gallardo - given his age and being under contract for a few more years I can see why he would hesitate. But I think Mark A. understands the concept of sunk costs, and not making decisions based on them.

 

Both Greinke and Lee were in the final year of their contracts, and both had turned down franchise-crippling contracts prior to Attanasio approving their trades. With Lee, the demand in return was MLB-talent, so we got 2 years of a closer and Kevin Mench and only had to add Cruz to the deal.

 

Fielder and Hart were both on the blocks entering their final year, but the Brewers didn't feel like they were being offered enough. Melvin said he wanted two young MLB-proven pitchers for Fielder. What are the odds any playoff team would be willing to give up two members of their rotation for one year of Fielder? We apparently were offered Daniel Hudson for Fielder from the White Sox, but turned it down. Who knows what ripple effects that trade would've had. Since he didn't find the return he wanted, instead Melvin/Attanasio abandoned any semblance of a long-term plan and instead decided to put all his chips on 2011. While we got a playoff win, we're now feeling the repercussions from that decision.

 

But, the point you were arguing was about trading Gallardo, Lohse, Weeks, Ramirez, Axford, K-Rod, and Hart. Only Hart and K-Rod are in their final year, which is when Melvin/Attanasio seem to feel it's okay to trade a player. Of course, the point is probably moot, because I doubt Axford, Ramirez, Weeks, or Lohse would return anything of value, and neither will Gallardo unless he finds his lost velocity. It is, however, worth shopping these guys to at least test the market.

[Thurston Fluff]

In one sentence you say it was easier to keep a team together back then and in another you wonder "what this team would look like with both Greinke and Sabathia on it. That would have been possible if it was 1982." Guess what, if it was easier for the Brewers back then then it was easier for the Royals and Indians too and they wouldn't have traded away either pitcher to the Brewers. It goes both ways. So while I understand your point, the point applies to every team, not just the Brewers.

 

They came via trade not free agency. Cleveland might not have traded CC if he wasn't facing FA but Greinke was not traded due to pending free agency. He was traded because he asked to be traded.

 

Yeah and saying a GM who has a worse track record is better is kinda bass ackwards.

I think I said as good as. If I did say "better than" my bad. To me they are both competent GM's who have shown they can build a winning team. I think when you find one who can do the job you keep him because continuity seems to be a factor in maintaining a good franchise.

 

Green and Bianchi? Now your just making Fluff up.....

 

Making Fluff up? Excellent. But I stand by the idea that Green and Bianchi were supposed to be backups coming in. Backups usually are the backup plan to injury aren't they?

[monty57]

Axford (don't laugh) could have some value if he can string some good outings together.

In his 21 appearances since April 13th he has a 2.84 ERA and 22 Ks (7 BB) in 19 innings, with 3 of the 6 ER coming in one outing. I'd say he's strung together some good outings.

 

Thanks for compiling that. I knew he'd been pitching better, but hadn't put the numbers together.

 

He'll probably get $7-8MM in arby next year, so it would be really helpful if he continues to pitch well enough to get teams interested in him. When the options are (1) trade him for something of value (2) pay him $7-8MM next year or (3) don't offer arby and let him become a free agent with the Brewers getting nothing in return, I think the best option is #1.

[adambr2]

what are some of the issues with Mark except he went over doug head getting loshe. But he green lighted the moves by doug to get us CC and Grienke.

 

Mark A. was obviously very much at least partially behind the Suppan signing. It's also believed that he was behind signing Gagne. I'm guessing, but don't know, that he probably steered Melvin away from trading guys at their unsustainable high points like McGehee, and encouraged trades such as Lawrie for Marcum.

 

The "problem" with Mark A. is that aside from the rich business man, he is just like us. Oh sure, he sees the Brewers as a business, but he's a fan too. He enjoys seeing them win for the same reasons that any other fan does. And like any other fan, he has ideas about what he think would be good for the team. The big difference is that he actually has the power to implement his ideas. The problem is that even though he does have a right to do this, he's not really qualified to do so.

[brewmann04]

The Owner will do what needed to help this team, he don't want to trade and admit he a seller. That would mean his team is done and he needs o get close to that 3 Million mark.

[adambr2]

The Owner will do what needed to help this team, he don't want to trade and admit he a seller. That would mean his team is done and he needs o get close to that 3 Million mark.

 

I'm not sure he really has a choice anymore. Attendance is already falling, and the losing isn't going to help. No one wants to come see a 19-32 team. And that's going to cost him money. So just trying another major patch job through free agency or trade won't be an option either. He isn't going to jack the payroll up and operate at a loss. And he doesn't have good enough prospects to bring back significant improvements in trade.

 

If there is a realistic short-term solution to the Brewers' problem, I don't see what it is.

[brewmann04]

i think the Crew needs to be sellers to add prospects. Then hope to hell Seid hits a HR in the Draft and maybe add a FA in the off season. But need to rebulid the farm since we don't seem to have to many top Prospect now.

[monty57]

I think I said as good as. If I did say "better than" my bad. To me they are both competent GM's who have shown they can build a winning team. I think when you find one who can do the job you keep him because continuity seems to be a factor in maintaining a good franchise.

 

This may be a "chicken or egg" thing, but I don't think continuity is a factor in maintaining a good franchise, I think that if you are successful at maintaining a good franchise, you will be rewarded by keeping your job (i.e. "continuity"). In other words, continuity isn't the cause of the franchise being well maintained, it is the effect.

 

I agree with you that Melvin is competent. He's certainly not dumb. I just think that at some point a few years back, he went from a long-term strategy to a short-term ("window") strategy. It could've been that he was planning on retiring and wanted a World Series ring before he went, it could be Attanasio, it could be a lot of things. But, the decision to "go for it" in a "window," ended up short of the end goal, and now are in the inevitable stage that comes from short-term thinking/playing the "window strategy." How long it lasts and how painful the process depends on what the team does about it.

 

I'm not surprised we're here at all. While I didn't expect this year's team to be this bad, it seems pretty obvious the team is getting less-and-less talented every year and the trend should continue for a couple more years. My only question is when the Brewer brass will acknowledge this and do something meaningful about it.

[rondoman]

Remember the Brewers wanted to sign Mcgehee to an extension too. Thank god Casey didnt take it but I bet he regrets it to this day.