General thoughts on the franchise.

[The stache]

Going into the pre-season, I didn't think we were a lock to be a playoff team, but I thought we would at least be relevant until September.

 

It's May and we're already irrelevant.

 

We have no top 100 prospects and the most exciting thing that happened to us in the last year was trading Zack Greinke.

 

The situation is bleak, and the future is bleak. This isn't turning around this year, or next. The sooner the FO can face this reality instead of deceiving themselves into thinking they can just throw a few patches on and drive forward into contention next year, the better.

 

My thinking as well. Even after our incredible run to close out the 2012 season, I didn't have high expectations that we'd contend for the division, or even a playoff spot this season. And that was fine with me. I'd love to win the World Series year after year, but the realist in me is completely content with a competitive team that is fun to watch, so long as I feel we are building towards something. So, while there were certain elements of last year's team that made me nuts, overall, I really enjoyed watching the Brewers play. I was entertained, and ultimately, isn't that why we all watch the game?

 

When we added Kyle Lohse, I took it as a sign that maybe management thought we were closer to a playoff spot than originally anticipated. In retrospect, now it looks more like a desperation move, and an ill-conceived one at that. Lohse is not a difference maker, and in signing him, we've taken on a substantial contract for three years, forfeiting our much needed first round pick this season to do so.

 

So when I read other posters saying that "we have a plan", with all due respect, I'm just not seeing it. We are very lucky that Jean Segura is playing as well as he has been. We are also incredibly fortunate that Carlos Gomez is finally starting to live up to his incredible potential. Where would if both these guys weren't playing absolutely lights out baseball? We're 12 games below .500, and it's not even June. What happens to this team when they start to come down to Earth?

[The stache]

Personally I'm not so sure the organization is going on the wrong direction.

 

Seriously? From 96 wins two years ago to 12 games under .500 with the worst pitching staff in baseball, and one of the worst overall farm systems of all Major League teams. Oh, and no first round pick in this year's draft. Under what stretch of the imagination could this franchise possibly be on the right track?

 

I've said my peace, but I will leave this discussion for now with one last thought. Again. Doug Melvin has been in a management position in Major League Baseball for over a quarter of a century. In that time, his teams, the Orioles, Rangers and Brewers...have won a grand total of one playoff series. Not one World Series championship. Not one league championship. One playoff series win. His last two seasons as GM of the Texas Rangers, they had the worst team ERA in baseball.

 

I'm pretty sure that after 26 years on the job, there's enough empirical data to formulate an accurate assessment of the man chiefly responsible for the direction of this franchise. This is a man that has time and time again shown that he cannot get the job done. He is an incredibly poor judge of pitching talent. For every one good move he makes, there are at least four bad ones. For every Jean Segura-for-a-two-month-rental of Zack Greinke trades, there's a signing of Jeff Suppan, or Eric Gagne, or Jason "wet noodle" Kendal, or bringing in Jim Edmonds at age 40. There are more I'm probably not thinking of. But he's had a long time in the Major Leagues, and his teams have accomplished nothing.

 

If Doug Melvin was going to do anything, he'd have done it by now. He is a stop gap, and a bad one at that. It's time to move on.

[The stache]

I love ya 'stache (I gave you the Upton jinx, you know), but this is not entirely true. The Brewers have won more games since 2005 than the Twins. The Twins have been to the playoffs three times since 2005, obviously one more than the Brewers, but each time they have been swept 3-0 in the first round which may suggest that the Twins played in an inferior division and weren't as good as their record suggested. Both times the Brewers were in the playoffs they lost to the eventual World Series champion (and in 2008 they were a Rickie Weeks dropped throw away from being up 2-1 on the Phillies).

 

You have to throw out Buxton as he was the #2 overall pick; if you look at the year Weeks was drafted #2 overall that draft class was weak - Weeks has by far the best career WAR of any of the top 6 picks and the 7th best career WAR of all 39 first round picks that year. 2009 was also the first year that protected unsigned picks with picks in the next years draft, something the Brewers didn't have the luxury of having when they had higher picks than the Twins from 2002-2007; the Brewers may have taken more risks if they had that protection. Since 2008 the Twins have drafted ahead of the Brewers every year but two, including Hicks in 2008 (I'll argue Lawrie was a better pick at #16) and Gibson in 2009. One year the Brewers had a higher pick they didn't sign Covey in 2010 but that was a blessing; that year the Twins picked Wimmers and he has disappointed. It happens - no team bats 1.000 in the draft; the Twins whiffed on Shooter Hunt and Carlos Guttierez in 2008. Ben Revere (2007) disappointed and they traded him for Vance Worley; Matt Laporta was traded for Sabathia. The other year the Twins had a lower pick (2011) their pick Levi Michael so far has nothing on Jed Bradley.

 

There is correlation between draft position and talent when draft position is fairly consistent over several years.

 

You are right about the record. I miscalculated, and had the Twins ahead by a few games. The Brewers have won 7 more games over that span. But if you look at the return the Twins have gotten for the money they've spent, both at the Major League level, and in the minors, I'd be willing to bet the Twins are way ahead.

 

As to the correlation between draft position and talent, do you want me to do a year by year comparison as to who the Twins and Brewers have both drafted since 2005? Because over a seven year span, Milwaukee having 7 wins more than the Twins breaks down to one extra win per season. Given that, Milwaukee should have a comparable level of talent, no?

 

Let's look at first round picks (ignoring any compensatory picks)

 

2006 Twins 20th, Brewers 16th

2007 Twins 28th, Brewers 7th

2008 Twins 14th, Brewers 16th

2009 Twins 22nd, Brewers 26th

2010 Twins 21st, Brewers 14th

2011 Twins 30th, Brewers 12th

2012 Twins 2nd, Brewers 28th

 

Average draft position Minnesota Twins 19.6

Average draft position Milwaukee Brewers 17

 

Now obviously, it's not that cut and dry. There are varying levels of talent from one year to the next. One year, the draft might be loaded, the next, it could be relatively thin. But over the period from 2006 to 2012, the Brewers have on average had first round picks 3 slots higher than the Twins (when rounded).

 

Now, let's look at the players that have been drafted (again, no compensatory picks):

 

2006 1st round, 20th pick. Minnesota selects: Chris Parmelee

2006 1st round, 16th pick. Milwaukee selects: Jeremy Jeffress

 

push. neither have made a significant impact in the Majors

 

2007 1st round, 28th pick. Minnesota selects: Ben Revere

2007 1st round, 7th pick. Milwaukee selects: Matt LaPorta

 

Revere last season hit .294, scored 70 runs, stole 40 bases for the Twins.

LaPorta hit .247 with 11 HR and 53 RBI last season for the Indians.

Revere had a good season for the Twins before being traded. LaPorta never played for the Brewers.

 

2008 1st round, 14th pick. Minnesota selects: Aaron Hicks

2008 1st round, 16th pick. Milwaukee selects Brett Lawrie

 

Lawrie hit .253 with 11 HR and 48 RBI last season for the Blue Jays

Hicks at AA New Britain hit .286 with 100 runs scored, had 21 doubles, 11 triples, 13 home runs and stole 32 bases.

In the long run, I do not know who will be the better player. I do know that Lawrie will never benefit the Brewers again, and Hicks single handedly won the game against us tonight, robbing Carlos Gomez of a home run, and hitting one himself.

 

2009 1st round, 22nd pick. Minnesota selects: Kyle Gibson

2009 1st round, 26th pick, Milwaukee selects: Eric Arnett

 

This isn't even close. Arnett just had season ending knee surgery in February. At age 24, last season, he was still stuck in high A ball where he was 1-0 with a 3.56 ERA. Arnett is not even rated as a top 20 prospect in the Brewers' system.

Gibson is a top 50 prospect in baseball, 4-5 with a 2.82 ERA 53:17 K:BB ratio, a 1.07 WHIP at AAA Rochester. He is Minnesota's #4 prospect. The 6'6" 210 lb right hander has a plus fastball, slider and changeup. Huge advantage to Minnesota.

 

2010 1st round, 21st pick. Minnesota selects: Alex Wimmers.

2010 1st round, 14th pick. Minnesota selects: Dylan Covey

 

Wimmers was the 10th rated prospect in the Twins' system at the end of 2011, but has been rehabbing after Tommy John surgery.

The Brewers didn't even sign Dylan Covey, and he's pitching for the University of San Diego. So, again, we get nothing. I expect Wimmers to be a back of the rotation guy for Minnesota, 3/4 upside. As for who the Brewers could have had in that first round: Christian Yelich, Kaleb Cowart, Jesse Biddle, Zach Lee. All four of them would have been our #1 prospect as all are top 100 in baseball. Cowart is #61, Biddle is #55, Yelich is #12 and Zach Lee is #72.

 

2011 1st round, 30th pick. Minnesota selects: Levi Michael

2011 1st round, 12th pick. Milwaukee selects: Taylor Jungmann

 

I know little about Michael. He's the #20 prospect in the Twin system (shortstop). Jungmann had the pedigree in college, winning the Dick Howser Award as college baseball's best player (think baseball's Heisman Award). Jungmann should put this in the win column for the Brewers, but I'm not making an assumption until I see both play longer.

 

2012 1st round, 2nd pick. Minnesota selects: Byron Buxton

2012 1st round, 27th and 28th picks. Milwaukee selects: Victor Roache.

 

Buxton simply has far greater upside than Victor. Roache has plus power. Buxton is a five tool star, and would likely have been #1 if the Houston Astros didn't think they couldn't sign him.

 

Overall: clear win for the Twins. Yes, Buxton was a #2 pick. Well, the Brewers had a #7 pick, and couldn't even sign their guy. Hicks and Gibson should also be long term contributors for the Twins. Both have star potential.

 

The Brewers took the "safe" route with Jungmann. He might have a higher basement, but he has a far lower ceiling. Roache could stick in right field with a solid average arm.

 

Can you point to anybody the Brewers have drafted in this seven year period, at least in the first round, and say they have clear "star potential"? Jeffress, LaPorta and Lawrie were sent shipping, and we got a half season of C.C. Sabathia, a year and a half of Zack Greinke, and a year and a half of Shaun Marcum, for them (and Alcides Escobar, Lorenzo Cain, Michael Brantley). Neither Arnett or Covey will ever contribute to the Brewers. Jungmann is a starter with 4 upside.

 

I think it's clear to say that though we have had on average a slightly better draft position than Minnesota, they have done a better job selecting talent.

[Kelbysdaddy]

Revere plays for the Phillies. If you want to get really depressed, make the same comparisons with the cardinals, who have had much more success drafting behind the brewers.

[The stache]

Ya, I saw that they called up Michael Wacha, who they drafted last year. He is the comp pick for Pujols.

 

The Cardinals kick our butts up and down the block from top to bottom as an organization.

[The stache]

I didn't see he'd been traded, I updated my comparisons.

[Invader3K]

Regarding Ryan Braun, I don't think he would demand a trade if the team went into rebuild mode. I don't get the sense winning a championship is necessarily his biggest motivator. I think he wants to be the biggest fish in the smallest pond, and sees that being his legacy as a Brewer. Maybe I'm being naive, but I've never gotten the sense he would be impatient about winning.

[logan82]

I hope he would be ok with rebuilding if it was explained to him. I just remember(for whatever it's worth) that he has only really come out and complained publicly a few times. Each time was when we were not doing well as a team. Was it because he wants to win or because the team was not meeting expectations, I don't know.

[LouisEly]

'stache, I'm curious as to why you started your draft comparison in 2006 and not 2005. In 2005, the last time the Brewers had a top 5 pick, they drafted a guy I think compares very favorably to Buxton.

 

People forget that LaPorta had a .978 OPS as a 23-year-old in Huntsville in 2008 when they traded him. (Braun had a .956 OPS as a 22-year-old in AA, Hicks as a 22-year-old posted a .844 OPS.) Pre-2009 LaPorta was the #27 prospect in baseball (after his AA season Hicks was the #73 prospect). The Brewers sold high on him and flipped him for Sabathia; I can't say the Twins have done as good of a job selling high on their prospects (Garza for Young, Revere for Worley).

 

Not all prospects pan out. 'stache, you've done a great job of researching information for your posts. I'd be curious as to who the top 100 prospects were pre-2009 and where they are now. People might be surprised how many of them didn't live up to their potential.

[brewmann04]

The Brewers really need to start hiting on some of these early round picks.

[The stache]

'stache, I'm curious as to why you started your draft comparison in 2006 and not 2005. In 2005, the last time the Brewers had a top 5 pick, they drafted a guy I think compares very favorably to Buxton.

 

People forget that LaPorta had a .978 OPS as a 23-year-old in Huntsville in 2008 when they traded him. (Braun had a .956 OPS as a 22-year-old in AA, Hicks as a 22-year-old posted a .844 OPS.) Pre-2009 LaPorta was the #27 prospect in baseball (after his AA season Hicks was the #73 prospect). The Brewers sold high on him and flipped him for Sabathia; I can't say the Twins have done as good of a job selling high on their prospects (Garza for Young, Revere for Worley).

 

Not all prospects pan out. 'stache, you've done a great job of researching information for your posts. I'd be curious as to who the top 100 prospects were pre-2009 and where they are now. People might be surprised how many of them didn't live up to their potential.

 

At some point back in a prior discussion, one of my posts was "what prospect has Melvin hit on since Ryan Braun in 2005". That's just been my jumping off point, so to speak, for prospect talk. 8 years since 8, if you will. But thanks. I tend to get a little more worked up in game threads (for good or bad, I'm just a passionate fan, and when I see dumb things happening, things that a five year old could see as dumb, it irritates me to no end), but when we're done losing, I can be a little more rational, and do my research.

 

Here's Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects from prior to 2009:

 

http://img826.imageshack.us/img826/828/2009bbaprospects.png

[fondybrewfan]

There are a lot of really nice players on that list. From what I can tell the Brewers drafted Escobar, Gamel, LaPorta, Lawrie, and Jeffress. 5 in the Top 100 is pretty solid. Of course of those 5 probably only Escobar would be considered a nice MLB player right now.

[3and2Fastball]

There are a lot of really nice players on that list. From what I can tell the Brewers drafted Escobar, Gamel, LaPorta, Lawrie, and Jeffress. 5 in the Top 100 is pretty solid. Of course of those 5 probably only Escobar would be considered a nice MLB player right now.

 

Escobar is on the verge of being an All-Star player. LaPorta got us Sabathia and a playoff berth. Lawrie is still young. Gamel if he can stay healthy = who knows. No idea what to think about Jeffress

[bjkrautk]

For what it's worth, Jeffress has pitched 39.2 innings in MLB (38 games) including his cup of coffee with the Blue Jays this season, and is 2-1 with a 4.99 ERA. Not sure why his stat line doesn't show up in the spreadsheet.

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/stats/_/id/30954/jeremy-jeffress

[TheCrew07]

A nitpick but Escobar wasn't drafted, he was signed as a 16 year old FA out of Venezuela, 1 of 2 Latin America success stories for the Brewers, I'm still hoping Peralta will settle in. Orlando Arcia was also signed out of Venezuela as a 16 year old, is currently playing SS for the T-Rats, and is an exciting prospect so we may have a 3rd on the way.

 

There we a couple of young pitchers out of LA that we've been interested in for some time, Jorge Ortega is finally coming stateside this year but apparently Gian Rizzo isn't. Both guys have been intriguing statistically but we haven't been able to dig up any scouting reports on them.

[Thurston Fluff]

Seriously? From 96 wins two years ago to 12 games under .500 with the worst pitching staff in baseball, and one of the worst overall farm systems of all Major League teams. Oh, and no first round pick in this year's draft. Under what stretch of the imagination could this franchise possibly be on the right track?

 

I think you are overstating how bad the franchise is due to a bad start to a degree. Frankly the team isn't as bad as you are making it out to be. Granted they are playing poorly right now but that doesn't mean they are doomed to be this bad all season long. While it isn't anywhere near good it is an exaggeration to say the pitching staff is the worst. In fact the bullpen is one of the best. The starters are really bad right now. But I seriously don't believe YoGa is going to be as bad as he has been going forward. Barring some kind of injury we don't know about pitchers don't usually go from good to bad in one season. There is no reason to think Lohse in anything other than a mid 3's ERA type of pitcher he has been so far. Estrada has been around long enough now to think he is at least an average pitcher. That leaves two spots going forward that we don't know much about. Given how many options we have I think we can find two that end up being at least serviceable going forward. Remember last season at this point Peralta was struggling in AAA as was Fiers. Burgois was in A ball. These are players who are likely to improve.

 

Now to your doom and gloom farm system issues. The cost of the past two season's was five of the organization's top prospects. All of whom are either in the top 100 prospects or contributing in the majors. The only one who looks like he could be a bust is Jeffress. You don't lose five players like that without your farm taking a hit. How much better would the farm look if we had kept all of them and traded Fielder for a couple more. But that would have meant no playoff run. That was the tradeoff. It takes time to rebuild the farm. Given we have the same people who built the system into one of the best a few short years ago it seems likely they can do it again. Keep in mind the farm system isn't the end all be all. It is to supplement the big league club. If the farm was the prize then the Pirates wouldn't be going on 20 some losing season's.

 

To sum up I think we are on the right track because we have a team that has very few holes on it, most of whom are locked up for two or mores season's. We have a GM that has already built good teams, an owner who may be meddlesome but is willing to spend. I'd also add that he seems to understand stability is a key to maintaining a good franchise. Look at the teams who have stable long term management and compare that to teams who change management every few years and that should tell you something about the value of stability. We also have enough options between the farm and salary space to supplement an already fairly complete team. Two months of bad baseball doesn't erase all that.

[trwi7]

Given we have the same people who built the system into one of the best a few short years ago it seems likely they can do it again.

 

Uhh, no we don't.

[Thurston Fluff]

Who am I missing outside of Jack Z.?

[TheCrew07]

Who am I missing outside of Jack Z.?

At least 3 cross checkers and 2 scouts. The Brewers scouting dept was raided for years.

[Thurston Fluff]

I stand corrected. Obviously if people are raiding our staff that says something about the man who put the staff together doesn't it? I think Melvin has shown he can find competent people to do the job of scouting and developing. He's managed to get two franchises with terrible histories to division winners and relatively consistent post season contenders. Texas never won until he got there and Milwaukee has been as good under his watch as any GM in the team's history. While I want to see a perennial winning team and a WS title as much as anyone I think stability is far more likely to get us there than changing every down cycle does. If you have competent people let them do their job. I believe Melvin to be competent. I understand some disagree with me on that. What I do not think helps is constantly looking for the proverbial better man once you find someone who has shown he knows how to build a winning team.

[logan82]

He didn't put the staff together. He retained it.

[xisxisxis]

Texas never won until he got there and Milwaukee has been as good under his watch as any GM in the team's history.

 

Won-Lost:

 

Brewers under Harry Dalton = 1149-1062 (52.0%)

 

Brewers under Doug Melvin (ignoring partial year he was hired) = 732-725 (50.2%)

 

 

World series appearances:

 

Under Dalton = 1

 

Under Melvin = 0

 

 

 

As good? OK......

[bani1717]

Maybe I am drastically over-simplifying and over-estimating what we could get in a trade, but I think we need to try to sell high this season on either Gomez or Aoki. I would look to trade one of them along with Ramirez for a high ceiling upper minors pitching prospect and salary relief (and maybe another 1-2 mid level prospects). Gomez's value is as high right now as it's ever been and Aoki I have to think would also have high value in a trade as I believe he still has 4 years of team control left after this year.

 

Yes, we could be looking at years of bad baseball if we don't find a way to get better, younger, cheaper talent than what we have now. But I feel as though we're not that far away from contending and that it's not time to go for an all-out rebuild right now. The Brewers have played more poorly than most expected, and I am willing to bet that they finish a lot closer to original expectations than where they're at right now. I think a trade like the one I described would be a step toward improving the most lacking part of our game with a long-term solution. Yes, we'd lose a lot of offense in Ramirez and Gomez/Aoki. But Ramirez would have been overpaid next year, and I think we can handle the outfield with in-house solutions. This would free up a lot of money to go after another Lohse-type pitcher (yes, I would make that move more often than not despite the arguments that we suck and he's not turning us into a contender) and/or another offensive weapon. Do that and I think we're in position to be a competitive team next year.

 

The fact that this thread was started now is not surprising, but I think people are drastically overstating how bad our organization is. There is a reason that not every team is built like the Cardinals who have an average payroll, an incredible team, and a loaded farm system. It's because it's not easy to do. I think expectations need to be tempered a bit as all teams go through ups and downs through the years. It is ok to strive for a team that perenially competes for division/world series titles, but to expect that is unreasonable for a small-market team IMO. Our current record is not indicative of our talent level. Even the 2002 Brewers didn't go through a month like this May.

 

While I don't think we are in as dire of straits as others on this board, I do completely agree that the long-term solution is to spend more on drafting and developing players, and that starts with expending the time/effort/money to get people who are good at drafting and developing both position players and pitchers. I just think that there is more to this long-term solution than giving up on 2013-2014/15 now because of one absolutely horrific month. We will probably not make the playoffs this year, but I think we are closer to making the playoffs than needing to go into all-out rebuild mode while we still have guys like Braun and Segura on our roster.

[rondoman]

No Escobar is not on the verge if being an all-star. That made me laugh.

[Thurston Fluff]

xisxisxis said:

Texas never won until he got there and Milwaukee has been as good under his watch as any GM in the team's history.

 

Won-Lost:

 

Brewers under Harry Dalton = 1149-1062 (52.0%)

 

Brewers under Doug Melvin (ignoring partial year he was hired) = 732-725 (50.2%)

 

 

World series appearances:

 

Under Dalton = 1

 

Under Melvin = 0

 

 

 

As good? OK......

 

 

I guess it doesn't matter in the least that one team had a whole other layer of playoffs to get to the world series? Dalton had one five game series and he's God but Melvin has to win a five game series and a seven game series just to match him? They won the same number of playoff series. Who cares? Point is they are/were both competent. When you find competent people you keep them and help them achieve the goal. This whole idea of "should we keep them for fire them," just feeds on itself. It's a loop from hell that Pittsburgh has been in for decades. Steinbrenner was that way In NY. Then he stuck with one manager and one GM for a while and look at how things changed there. If you are always asking whether someone should be fired or not you are failing to ask what else needs to be done. There is so much more to getting to the level we all want to be at than just finding Mr. Perfect.