General thoughts on the franchise.

[craigharmann]

[quote name="3and2Fastball"

Those are the precise reasons to trade Aoki: being under control and inexpensive' date=' plus having a larger sample now of proven ability to hit MLB pitching, gives Aoki some trade value.[/quote]

 

Wouldn't that be the type of player to stockpile, if you're building for the future?

Definitely, but not when he's already 31. His value will never be higher than it is currently.

 

I didn't realize he was that old. Trade his old butt, then!!!

[TheCrew07]

The philosophy of the franchise the last 5 years is, reload not rebuild.

 

Actually the philosophy has been to "patch", if the franchise was interested in reloading we wouldn't be in this mess.

[brewcrewdue80]

FWIW, ugh, I'm torn. I was going to say how much less does Aoki's value lose this year to next come at the Trade Deadline? owning under 1mil with his 1st Arb forthcoming has to still have quite a bit of value to a team that needs him. But, at the same time, he's holding up roster spots of which 3 in the minors are awaiting.

 

Man, just sucks, such high hopes for this team offensively, and maybe they'll collectively get it together the week it is torn apart and as fans, just awful to not really witness it.

I honestly don't know what more of Aoki you can ask for in a leadoff hitter. His OB is near .400. He's a pest at the plate and on the basepaths though I wish he'd be more efficient in stealing. You move Aoki, Segura is leadoff hitter? Who bats 2nd? Gomez?

If we move Aoki, he had better land a serious talent. Really. A top 30 prospect. Not some oh around top 60-100 ranking prospect. This is a 4WAR(Projecting) player we're giving up with 4+years of control. If we didn't have Davis/Gindl to be his replacement I'd laugh off this idea.

Question is who in the Playoff picture could use him? I see Tampa, maybe Baltimore with injury risk OFs McClouth/Markakis, Cleveland but who do they have left to give? Oakland?

[adambr2]

I think this year also highlights how much more important starting pitching is than your bullpen. A bad bullpen can cost you a playoff spot (last year). A bad rotation can make you a really bad team.

[paul253]

Unfortunately not only is there no end in sight to the pitching woes but Mark and Doug's MO when their starting pitching has done so bad is to reach for a FA. Looper. Suppan. Wolf. Lohse. It'll happen again next offseason to.

 

If I were the Brewers I'd try to trade the following guys. Lohse. Badenhop. Gorzelany. Mike Gonzalez. Hart. Aoki. Ramirez. No sense is looking to move Weeks or Gallardo because their value is so low. You won't get an elite prospect for any of those guys but you should be able to build some depth. Get a third base prospect, some pitching prospects, maybe a guy you can throw into the rotation next season. Then you just have to hope guys like Peralta can turn things around and someone like Jimmy Nelson, Johnny Hellweg or Tyler Thornburg can contribute next season. The ways things are going this year the Brewers should have a pretty high draft pick next year. They absolutely have to hit on it and it would be ideal if it could be a pitcher.

 

Either way the future of this franchise is not looking up.

[The stache]

As a point of comparison, and discussion, I'm going to start profiling the minor league systems of the teams the Brewers are playing. This will give us all a good cross reference for what other teams are doing to improve themselves, even if their parent club is struggling.

 

Let's look at the team that we lost to tonight, the Minnesota Twins. Like the Brewers, they are far under .500, and ice cold, having lost 11 of their last 12 before beating us 6-3 today.

 

The Milwaukee Brewers in 2013 have a payroll of $91,003,366. We are 19-30.

The Minnesota Twins in 2013 have a payroll of $75,562,500. We are 20-28.

 

Dark days are ahead in Minnesota, right? Actually, no. While Twins fans struggle through a rough season (much like us Brewer fans are doing), they have something they can look forward to. Their young talent on the way is sensational.

 

Again, referring back to the April 2-16th edition of Baseball America, the Twins have the 10th ranked organizational talent in baseball. This is purely minor league talent, not including any players at the Major League level.

 

The Twins have 6 of the top 100 prospects in baseball (#s in parenthesis are their preseason rankings, first from MLB.com, then from Baseball America):

 

1. Miguel Sano, third base (12,9): the best pure power bat in the minor leagues. These rankings were before any games were played in 2013. Currently Sano is hitting .341 with 13 home runs and 38 RBI in 173 at bats at A+ Fort Myers. He has a .433 OBP, a .665 SLG and a 1.098 OPS. Currently, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com has the 6'3" 195 lb Sano ranked as the #11 prospect in baseball.

 

2. Byron Buxton, outfield (19,10): Buxton was the consensus top ranked player going into the 2012 amateur draft, but he fell to Minnesota at the #2 spot when the Houston Astros selected Carlos Correa, as he was deemed more likely to sign, and more affordable. Buxton is a 5 tool player. Currently at Class A Cedar Rapids, Buxton is hitting .324 with 7 HR and 38 RBI in 182 at bats. The 6'2" 190 lb Buxton has 35 walks vs 39 strike outs, giving him a .432 OBP. His .555 SLG gives him a .987 OPS. He also has 23 stolen bases. He is already a plus fielder with a plus arm, and has elite speed.

 

3. Oswaldo Arcia, right field (93,41): Arcia, the older brother of Brewers prospect Orlando Arcia, is another power bat. At 22, he is already playing in the Majors. In a brief stint at AAA Rochester, Arcia was hitting .325 with 3 HR and 8 RBI in 12 games when the Twins called him up. Since jumping to the Majors, Arcia is batting .255 with 4 HR and 14 RBI in 98 at bats. The 6'0" 220 lb Arcia is another 5 tool player, with projected plus power, hitting, arm and fielding, with average speed. Arcia jumped through two levels in 2012, and the Twins are ready to reap the benefits. MLB.com has bumped him up from #93 to 86 since the season started.

 

4. Alex Meyer, right handed pitcher (40,59): The 6'9" 220 lb Meyer has incredible upside. His fastball is plus, near elite, and has plenty of sink. His slider is deemed above average, with plus upside, and his change up is average. At AA New Britian this season, Meyer is 2-3 with a 3.95 ERA. He has 63 strikeouts in 54 2/3 IP vs 25 walks.

 

5. Kyle Gibson, right handed pitcher (49,68): The 6'6" 210 lb Gibson is another talented young pitcher in the Twins system. He has three plus pitches: fastball, slider and change up. At AAA Rochester, the 25 year old has a 4-5 record with a 2.82 ERA, 53 K in 60 2/3 IP. He has walked 17 batters. Gibson has fully recovered from Tommy John surgery in 2011, and looks to be ready for the Majors soon.

 

6. Aaron Hicks, center fielder (98,72): Hicks, a 6'2" 190 lb center fielder, is another top outfield prospect in the Twins system, and is now up with the Twins at age 23. In 129 games at AA New Britian last year, the switch hitting Hicks batted .286, scored 100 runs, had 21 doubles, 11 triples, 13 home runs, and 32 stolen bases. He also showed good discipline at the plate, walking 79 times versus 116 strike outs. He had a .384 OBP, and an .844 OPS. He is a plus defender with a plus arm, and has drawn several comparisons to Tori Hunter.

 

7. Eddie Rosario, second base (99, #): Rosario, at 6'0" 170 pounds, is destined for second base, though he has also played the outfield. He has an above average arm, and above average defensive abilities, and plus hitting upside. The 21 year old hicks is at high A ball Fort Myers, where he is hitting .309 with 3 HR and 26 RBI in 41 games.

 

How does the overall talent level of Minnesota's system compare to Milwaukee's? I think it far exceeds it. Sano, Buxton, Meyers and Gibson are all elite prospects (top 50 in baseball), and Arcia's stock is rising fast (already #41 ranked by Baseball America). Every one of those prospects would be #1 in Milwaukee's system. Hicks and Rosario would be near the very top, also.

 

Have the Twins had higher draft picks than the Brewers? Well, no. They were terrible in 2011, but Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau missed a combined 173 games. In 2012 they were just terrible. But if you look at Minnesota's record since 2005, when we drafted Ryan Braun, they have on averaged performed better than the Brewers. They've just picked better players, and have done a far better job of developing those players. Here are the Twins' records since 2005:

 

2005 83-79, 3rd AL Central

2006 96-66, 1st AL Central

2007 79-83, 3rd AL Central

2008 88-75, 2nd AL Central

2009 87-76, 1st AL Central

2010 94-68, 1st AL Central

2011 63-99, 5th AL Central

2012 66-96, 5th AL Central

 

So, again, I ask you guys. The Twins, though they are not a good team right now, have a minor league system that's just filled with talent. The same cannot be said of our system. Why? Again, you have to point the finger at Doug Melvin.

[adambr2]

Do we even have one single top 100 prospect? Top 150 even?

[sveumrules]

The main reason the Twins farm is better than ours is they spent big on Sano and got Buxton at #2. They'll be adding another top pick this year due to their terrible 2012 and they look well on their way to another premium pick in the 2014 draft so maybe their next wave will be ready by the end of Mauer's deal.

 

Hopefully the losses keep piling up so we can pick 3 in 2014 since their is no way we're catching HOU or MIA.

[The stache]

The main reason the Twins farm is better than ours is they spent big on Sano and got Buxton at #2. They'll be adding another top pick this year due to their terrible 2012 and they look well on their way to another premium pick in the 2014 draft so maybe their next wave will be ready by the end of Mauer's deal.

 

Hopefully the losses keep piling up so we can pick 3 in 2014 since their is no way we're catching HOU or MIA.

 

What about the picks besides Sano and Buxton? You cherry picked two names off that list. There's 5 others.

 

In the 2008 draft, they had the 14th pick, and took Aaron Hicks, who is better than any prospect we have in the minors. They won their division in 2008, and got the 22nd pick in the 2009 draft. They took Kyle Gibson, who is better than any pitcher we have in the minors. In 2010, they got great value by taking Rosario in the 4th round. The 2010 draft was one of the richest in history, talent wise. We picked Dylan Covey, a guy we couldn't even sign. He's now pitching for the University of San Diego.

 

It's too convenient to say "well, they sucked, and got higher picks. Therefore that is why they have better overall talent". It's not true. The Twins since 2005 have been a better baseball team than we have, and yet they're still dusting us when it comes to young talent. The Twins spent big money on Sano, who will be hitting 30 home runs a season for them very soon. We choose to spend big money on guys like Kyle Lohse, and Rickie Weeks.

 

The difference in how these two organizations are handled are like night and day. The Twins, with a small payroll, have remained very competitive, and have restocked their minor league talent along the way. They might have a few down years now, but they will be competitive and competing for a playoff spot within the next two years. Can the Brewers say the same?

[The stache]

Do we even have one single top 100 prospect? Top 150 even?

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2013/

 

MLB.com's top 100 prospects. No, we don't.

 

The Cubs currently have three.

The Reds currently have three.

The Cardinals currently have four (two weeks ago they had 6. Shelby Miller and Trevor Rosenthal no longer qualify as prospects, too many innings pitched).

The Pirates have five, and another Josh Bell, about to join the top 100. They had yet another, but Starling Marte now has too many at bats.

The Brewers zippo.

 

By the way, the Twins, according to Jim Callis of Baseball America, say the Twins have the best 1-2 punch in the minor leagues in Sano and Buxton.

[JimH5]

The 'stache, you have done some very heavy lifting on this thread.

 

Congrats on the well-researched work.

[adambr2]

Going into the pre-season, I didn't think we were a lock to be a playoff team, but I thought we would at least be relevant until September.

 

It's May and we're already irrelevant.

 

We have no top 100 prospects and the most exciting thing that happened to us in the last year was trading Zack Greinke.

 

The situation is bleak, and the future is bleak. This isn't turning around this year, or next. The sooner the FO can face this reality instead of deceiving themselves into thinking they can just throw a few patches on and drive forward into contention next year, the better.

[trwi7]

Michael Hunt is just horrible.

 

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/brewers-farm-system-isnt-as-bad-as-you-might-think-b9919994z1-209121231.html

 

Yes Goforth throws hard. Yes he's a possible starter. His most likely case is a reliever though. He doesn't strike anyone out and he walks too many as an older guy at his level. His strikeouts go way up and his walks go way down as a reliever though.

 

Morris and Gennett are apparently the can't miss guys in the system. I don't think anyone here would agree they're can't miss or even close to can't miss.

 

This really got me.

 

the Brewers will never be able to trade for pitchers like those again until their farm system is replenished. And they won't be in a position to make those earth-shaking moves until they begin developing their own pitchers and everyday guys to elevate the big-league club to the point that such blockbusters are defensible.

 

If we actually develop our own pitchers and everyday guys why would we want or need to make a Sabathia or Greinke type trade?

[BrewCrewForever]

If the Brewers don't turn things around in the next month to month and a half, and I doubt it given their pitching woes. I would make every player not named Braun, Gomez, Segura and Lucroy available. I would think they could get some decent young players back for Hart, Ramirez and Aoki.

[trwi7]

I don't know why people would make every player except (insert player(s) here) available.

 

If some team looking for outfield production makes me a great offer for Gomez, he's gone. Same with Lucroy at catcher. If the Mariners offered Zunino and Walker for him? Obviously not likely but I would never say player x is untouchable, always listen on every player.

[adambr2]

Michael Hunt is just horrible.

 

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/brewers-farm-system-isnt-as-bad-as-you-might-think-b9919994z1-209121231.html

 

Yes Goforth throws hard. Yes he's a possible starter. His most likely case is a reliever though. He doesn't strike anyone out and he walks too many as an older guy at his level. His strikeouts go way up and his walks go way down as a reliever though.

 

Morris and Gennett are apparently the can't miss guys in the system. I don't think anyone here would agree they're can't miss or even close to can't miss.

 

This really got me.

 

the Brewers will never be able to trade for pitchers like those again until their farm system is replenished. And they won't be in a position to make those earth-shaking moves until they begin developing their own pitchers and everyday guys to elevate the big-league club to the point that such blockbusters are defensible.

 

If we actually develop our own pitchers and everyday guys why would we want or need to make a Sabathia or Greinke type trade?

 

Yeah, Hunt is just brutal. It's like he has completely forgotten the purpose of prospects in the first place. He thinks the whole point of them is to raise up to be good enough to trade for established big league talent.

 

This was evidenced in 2009 when the Brewers were floundering around .500 at the AS Break and Hunt insisted that the Brewers needed to do whatever it would take to land Roy Halladay even if it meant unloading their entire farm.

 

He said, in an enormous cliche, "The future is always now for a team like the Brewers." I wrote to him and said, "No Mike, the future is not always now for a team like the Brewers. I think you have them confused with the Yankees."

 

I can't figure out if Hunt is serious about the stuff he prints or if he's just messing with us. I have to think he's actually serious, but that in itself is flabbergasting. It's like they took a random drunk fan out of the stadium a few years ago and gave him a column to write.

[adambr2]

If the Brewers don't turn things around in the next month to month and a half, and I doubt it given their pitching woes. I would make every player not named Braun, Gomez, Segura and Lucroy available. I would think they could get some decent young players back for Hart, Ramirez and Aoki.

 

Not that I really ever consider anyone unavailable, but Braun is going to be 30 this year. He's probably at the point in his career where he wouldn't want to wait out a rebuilding effort, which is probably the only good option left for this organization. I wouldn't blame him.

[LouisEly]

It's too convenient to say "well, they sucked, and got higher picks. Therefore that is why they have better overall talent". It's not true. The Twins since 2005 have been a better baseball team than we have, and yet they're still dusting us when it comes to young talent.

 

I love ya 'stache (I gave you the Upton jinx, you know), but this is not entirely true. The Brewers have won more games since 2005 than the Twins. The Twins have been to the playoffs three times since 2005, obviously one more than the Brewers, but each time they have been swept 3-0 in the first round which may suggest that the Twins played in an inferior division and weren't as good as their record suggested. Both times the Brewers were in the playoffs they lost to the eventual World Series champion (and in 2008 they were a Rickie Weeks dropped throw away from being up 2-1 on the Phillies).

 

You have to throw out Buxton as he was the #2 overall pick; if you look at the year Weeks was drafted #2 overall that draft class was weak - Weeks has by far the best career WAR of any of the top 6 picks and the 7th best career WAR of all 39 first round picks that year. 2009 was also the first year that protected unsigned picks with picks in the next years draft, something the Brewers didn't have the luxury of having when they had higher picks than the Twins from 2002-2007; the Brewers may have taken more risks if they had that protection. Since 2008 the Twins have drafted ahead of the Brewers every year but two, including Hicks in 2008 (I'll argue Lawrie was a better pick at #16) and Gibson in 2009. One year the Brewers had a higher pick they didn't sign Covey in 2010 but that was a blessing; that year the Twins picked Wimmers and he has disappointed. It happens - no team bats 1.000 in the draft; the Twins whiffed on Shooter Hunt and Carlos Guttierez in 2008. Ben Revere (2007) disappointed and they traded him for Vance Worley; Matt Laporta was traded for Sabathia. The other year the Twins had a lower pick (2011) their pick Levi Michael so far has nothing on Jed Bradley.

 

There is correlation between draft position and talent when draft position is fairly consistent over several years.

[paul253]

There is correlation between draft position and talent when draft position is fairly consistent over several years.

 

Clearly having a higher draft pick helps. My problem with the Brewers is that no matter how high the pick they are unable to draft a successful pitcher. From 2002-2007 (6 drafts) they Brewers had a pick in the top 7 overall 5 times. Most of the picks were good ones (Weeks, Fielder, Braun). The other picks were Rogers and LaPorta. Rogers was picked over Homer Baily who, while not exactly a Hall-of-Famer, has at least been a solid contributor for Cincinnati. LaPorta was picked ahead of guys like Madison Bumgarner, Jarrod Parker and Rick Porcello.

 

Then there was the 2011 draft in which the Brewers picked 12th and 15th. Granted those picks were a little later but the draft was so deep that players still available at those slots would normally have been top 5-10 picks in the average draft. It was an extremely important draft for the Brewers. A very deep, very talented draft and we had two of the top 15 picks. And so far it's looking like Melvin and Seid whiffed on both picks.

 

Despite the success of Weeks, Braun, and Fielder the Brewers would not have been a playoff team at all had they not traded for established pitching. That is because of the complete inability to develop pitching any other place. A GM/Scouting Director shouldn't have to rely on top 7 picks every year in order to develop pitching. A good GM/Scouting Director should be able to at least hit on a few later rounders over the course of a decade, which Melvin and Jack Z./Bruce Seid have never done. That's why the Brewers are in the mess they are in. Not because they haven't had a top 10 pick in awhile.

[dlk9s]

So, if I follow what people are saying is this thread, it's that the Brewers need to draft better pitchers. Sounds like a plan. Let's go.

[TheCrew07]

There is correlation between draft position and talent when draft position is fairly consistent over several years.

 

You can cherry pick specific players to make your argument, but this is the exact same road traveled down when discussing the Rays who's rotation was made up of 2 players drafted in the first round so they were good because they drafted high. Price and Niemann were top 5 picks, that's true. However Wade Davis was a 3rd round pick and every other homegrown pitcher who's been in the rotation came from the 4th round or later, James Shields from the 16th.

 

The Rays didn't do it drafting high, they've missed on plenty of 1st round picks, they did it through quantity. When discussing the Twins why is it fair to pull out Buxton yet give credit to the Brewers for Weeks? I'm unsure why people are okay rationalizing the Brewers drafting high and netting Fielder, Weeks, and Braun but yet crap on teams that have similar success. What about the teams that out draft us who've had more success than us on the MLB, those teams that are consistently drafting later than us in the 1st round?

 

Draft position matters, but only through the 1st round, after that everyone had an equal shot at every player selected. Before picking Buxton (who's very impressive BTW) the Twins hadn't drafted higher than 14th (2008 when they drafted Hicks) since 2001 when they had the first over all pick (Joe Mauer).

 

The Twins haven't done much with an avalance of 1st round picks, 23 in total since 2001, so I don't think they are all that great at drafting players over the last decade, but they've certainly done a better job identifying impact talent. Even the freaking Twins have spent big money on an international player ($3.15 for Miguel Sano) which is something the Brewers could have easily done if not for spending too much money on the backend making the MLB payroll. Essentially that would have been like signing an extra 1st round pick, heck we could have signed 2 of those players every year if we wanted and been okay, but the Brewers haven't. We've carried more dead money than that every single season since the team got competitive again.

 

The difference between the Brewers and teams whom have drafted simillarily (as in poorly) are that those teams have also supplemented their talent base internationally, which is something the Brewers have failed at miserably. In the Twins case it's not just the draft, but I don't see how it's fair to cherry pick players for arguments.

 

Covey became Jungmann, the Brewers had 2 chances at the same pick and couldn't get it right either time, there's clearly a problem with the way the Brewers evaluate pitching talent when amateurs like us on the MiLB forum can watch a guy pitch and nail his ceiling and the Brewers aren't able to. Many of us are very well read and have watched hundreds of hours of video over the years, but there's no way we've put as much time into the players as the Brewers have.

[adambr2]

So, if I follow what people are saying is this thread, it's that the Brewers need to draft better pitchers. Sounds like a plan. Let's go.

 

I'm not even so sure it's the drafting anymore but rather perhaps the coaching and development.

 

Even the law of averages would say it's almost impossible for the Brewers to miss on this many pitching prospects. Would Madison Bumgarner be struggling in Huntsville right now if they would have drafted him? No way of knowing.

 

But they obviously do need to really scrutinize this deeply and figure out if this is a scouting problem, a development problem, or both. We've seen enough of the status quo to know that a major problem exists somewhere.

[RightFieldCoder]

Even the law of averages would say it's almost impossible for the Brewers to miss on this many pitching prospects. Would Madison Bumgarner be struggling in Huntsville right now if they would have drafted him? No way of knowing.

 

But they obviously do need to really scrutinize this deeply and figure out if this is a scouting problem, a development problem, or both. We've seen enough of the status quo to know that a major problem exists somewhere.

I think it is a scouting problem. Or at least a problem with the FO putting value into the wrong things. Melvin clearly knows how to properly evaluate hitters. I think it's fair to say at this point that he can't pick a pitcher unless they have already picked up Cy votes.

 

I think it's time to eliminate everyone below DM and get a new group in here.

[The stache]

The 'stache, you have done some very heavy lifting on this thread.

 

Congrats on the well-researched work.

 

Thank you

[The stache]

Michael Hunt is just horrible.

 

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/brewers-farm-system-isnt-as-bad-as-you-might-think-b9919994z1-209121231.html

 

Yes Goforth throws hard. Yes he's a possible starter. His most likely case is a reliever though. He doesn't strike anyone out and he walks too many as an older guy at his level. His strikeouts go way up and his walks go way down as a reliever though.

 

Morris and Gennett are apparently the can't miss guys in the system. I don't think anyone here would agree they're can't miss or even close to can't miss.

 

This really got me.

 

the Brewers will never be able to trade for pitchers like those again until their farm system is replenished. And they won't be in a position to make those earth-shaking moves until they begin developing their own pitchers and everyday guys to elevate the big-league club to the point that such blockbusters are defensible.

 

If we actually develop our own pitchers and everyday guys why would we want or need to make a Sabathia or Greinke type trade?

 

I'm not even sure if Gennett is a full time player in the Majors, and he's our 5th or 6th best prospect. He's a nice hitter, but doesn't really provide any power or base stealing ability. And his OBP at least right now is purely a product of his batting average. His defense is average.

 

I've wanted to bring him up for a while to see if we could catch lightning in a bottle with him, maybe get a bit of an offensive boost while he was hot with the bat. But he's cooled considerably, though still around the .300 mark.