General thoughts on the franchise.

[davego]

I'm late to this party, so I'll just add that I agree with Nottso. Additionally, if we survived 2001-2003, we can live thru this. We all knew that a year or two like this season is heading was coming. So, here's to Kyle getting on a run, Am-Ram smashing a few and DM dealing before July 31.

 

It would seem that targeting 2015 would be a viable plan.

[logan82]

It would seem that targeting 2015 would be a viable plan.

It would seem like a good idea. The problem is that I don't get the impression that is the direction DM is going. There doesn't seem to be a plan for 2014 let alone 2015.

[MNBrew]

There sure as heck is a plan for 2014 & 2015. There are so many on this site that assume the lack of publicized front office discussions means there is no plan.

 

The problem here is that the Brewers, like most teams that haven't been dwelling in the toilet, don't sit around and publicize their plan for the next two years. Do the Yankees do it? No. Red Sox or Rangers or Giants or Dodgers or Cardinals? No. Unless a team's in the business of having to sell hope -- not like some of us feel now, but like they so obviously had to when there was very little good on the major league roster like 8-10 years ago -- they don't spend time dwelling publicly on any year but the present.

 

Obviously the Brewers are in a tough stretch right now. But they ought to be a team that's appreciably better than what they're doing on the field right now. If this team does even a halfway better job of living up to what it's capable of doing, they'd have a chance at contending. When that's the situation, usually the last thing you need to be doing is tearing the current team down -- thus destroying all hope except for the average hard-core fans on boards like this one -- and propping what you expect to be up to 1-2-3 years hence.

 

The challenge for any GM is to balance the current play, needs, & potential of the current team with both the business side of the equation and the team's baseball & finances in the future -- and manage to wisely position the team for the best possible scenarios through the course of staying ahead of the situation. . . .

 

It just becomes oh-so-easy to think that tearing it all down is the right move and that the team obviously has no plan. But as someone said earlier, no plan has any guarantees, nor do any prospects. Furthermore, there's no guarantee that trading the guys many are targeting would actually yield the quality prospects everyone seems to assume they would -- OR that those prospects would develop. But if they went all-in with that approach, I'd still say there's a far greater chance of ending up like the Royals than the few who actually get over the hump & contend.

[adambr2]

How is 2015 even viable? We are a bad team now as it is. So looking ahead to 2015, we're looking at a team with Ramirez gone, Hart probably gone, Gallardo possibly gone, and Lohse probably ineffective if we don't trade him by then

 

I'm sure you are presuming we can get some trade value at the deadline, but there just isn't that much of value there outside of Braun, Segura, and Gomez, who most people consider untouchable.

 

Ramirez and Lohse, while good players, aren't going to bring back top prospects. Not when you consider their age and contracts.

 

While you can't project what will happen between now and 2015 on the farm, there certainly doesn't appear to be nearly good enough quality coming up in the next 2 years to turn this team around. And we aren't going to have the money to continue to try to plug all these holes in the pitching staff via free agency.

[trwi7]

J.P. Breen‏@JP_Breen6m

If #Brewers don’t improve, they’ll have some difficult decisions to make. Need to build for future, but org desperately wants to win in ‘14.

[davego]

I hope I'm wrong, but I can't see how 2014 is going to be much better. Maybe 2015 if the youth movement of starting pitching can come thru. 2016 might be more viable.

 

Get what we can get on the market from the big-league roster now I suppose.

 

I do want to put a clause in here that I tend to be rash when it comes to the 'crew.

[davego]

I hope I'm wrong, but I can't see how 2014 is going to be much better. Maybe 2015 if the youth movement of starting pitching can come thru. 2016 might be more viable.

 

Get what we can get on the market from the big-league roster now I suppose.

 

I do want to put a clause in here that I tend to be rash when it comes to the 'crew.

[adambr2]

I don't need to see a publicized plan, but some real-life evidence of its existence would be appreciated. Signing Kyle Lohse in March isn't real strong evidence of a plan.

 

I don't have as much faith in the current FO as you. I'm not sure they have any plan for 2015 in mind. Judging by recent history I would guess they are much more focused on seeing if there is any way they can contend in 2014, of which realistically I would have to think there is not.

 

Having a long-term plan involves more than just trying to sign your good young players to multi-year deals. What evidence in the last 5 years have we seen beyond that of a long-term plan?

[vegasbrewcrew1993]

Just for comparison and I know it's not altogether fair.

 

Marvin Milkes .398

Frank Lane .423

Jim Wilson .463

Jim Baumer .414

Harry Dalton .520

Sal Bando .476

Dean Taylor .405

Doug Melvin .494

 

The only more successful GM than DM also built the team on hitting with lesser pitching. You should compare the GMs to other Brewer GMs who may not have had the resources of say the Cardinals GM.

 

What are we aspiring to here??

 

How many World Series titles did Harry Dalton bring to Milwaukee with that "hitters first" attitude? I'm not trying to be argumentative, but if our measuring stick is a GM that barely made it above .500 during his tenure, we are in trouble.

 

I'm sorry, but I just don't want to settle for the mediocre baseball team that Melvin is able to provide us with. The Brewers have been in the Majors for 43 years now, and have made it to a single World Series, which we lost.

 

Colorado, Arizona, Miami and Tampa Bay have all made it to the World Series. Arizona won the World Series in their fourth year of existence. Miami won it in their fifth and eleventh seasons. How is it they can all get there, yet we'll be at 31 years since we last made it this fall?

 

Who do you think would be a good replacement GM for Melvin? If you were GM what would be the focus of the organization?

[adambr2]

It doesn't even really matter what we think, because the most likely scenario is inevitable.

 

Mark A will express his disappointment after the season but talk about some nice promising things like Segura and Gomez. He will talk about what needs to be improved but point to the 96 win season in 2011 to justify keeping the manager and coaching staff.

 

We will go sign a token veteran FA. We may scrape together whatever remaining top prospects we can find in our system to land another starter, and hope we can pass ourselves off to our fanbase as a potential contender next year.

[adambr2]

David Forst of the A's and Thad Levine of the Rangers would be my top choices.

 

There are some very bright young minds out there that might make great potential GM's.

 

The most important quality to me right now is an emphasis on scouting and a GM with the time and patience to weather what is looking more and more like a rebuilding project.

 

There is no one that can be fully effective unless Mark A agrees to step back and relinquish control over personnel decisions, however.

[monty57]

How is 2015 even viable? We are a bad team now as it is. So looking ahead to 2015, we're looking at a team with Ramirez gone, Hart probably gone, Gallardo possibly gone, and Lohse probably ineffective if we don't trade him by then

 

I'm sure you are presuming we can get some trade value at the deadline, but there just isn't that much of value there outside of Braun, Segura, and Gomez, who most people consider untouchable.

 

Ramirez and Lohse, while good players, aren't going to bring back top prospects. Not when you consider their age and contracts.

 

While you can't project what will happen between now and 2015 on the farm, there certainly doesn't appear to be nearly good enough quality coming up in the next 2 years to turn this team around. And we aren't going to have the money to continue to try to plug all these holes in the pitching staff via free agency.

 

Yeah, at trade deadline last year, I still thought we could make some trades to brighten the future. Then Marcum got hurt while we were deciding if we were still "in it" last year, Hart and Ramirez both got knee injuries this spring, Gallardo lost velocity, and Weeks has lost all trade value.

 

You hit the nail on the head with the three guys who could potentially bring back some young talent, and none of those three will be traded. Right now, I'm pretty much holding out hope that Aoki will bring back someone good at the trade deadline, as he is the only guy who the Brewers may trade who would have some value.

 

Without some deadline trades this year (at least something to dump a 2014 contract), next year's team will basically be this year's team minus Hart. The guaranteed obligations would seem to disallow for any free agent additions, and the lack of quality minor leaguers would seem to disallow for a trade for a vet. The lack of quality minor leaguers also hurts in that none of our upper minors starting pitchers except Nelson (AA) are making a case to be in the Brewers' 2014 rotation. There's not much immediate help coming from the farm, so we'll probably have to push the payroll over $100MM just to make some Betancourt-style additions. This comes when attendance is already declining, and will probably decline more next year, meaning the owners will probably lose a boatload of money, even with the increased TV revenue.

 

Then we lost a bunch of talent, but still have quite a bit of money tied up in a handful of players in 2015, especially if Weeks plays enough for his contract to vest. I know that seems like it won't happen, but if he's hitting at all to start next year, and the team doesn't tank out of the gate, I bet they'll continue to play him. The team won't be able to fill all the MLB holes through free agency, so it's going to take a miracle to have a competitive team without some major trades occurring.

 

This team needs to shed contracts to add pieces to remain competitive, but the only contracts anyone would want are attached to players we would only trade in a "rebuild." It's just not a good situation, and those talking about the risk of any type of rebuild should look at the risk of not doing something. I think there's a good chance it'll get ugly no matter what, but at this point, I'd shoot for the lesser of two evils, which in my mind is the route that nets us the most young, inexpensive talent.

[danzig6767]

Regardless of how St. Louis got into the postseason or who the better team was that year the fact is the Cardinals have been able to sustain that success, even without their star in Albert Pujols, and the Brewers have not. Looking at team ERAs it's not hard to figure out why.

The Cardinals realized one player does not make the team and knew when to cut bait.

 

One of the best things to ever happen to the Cardinals franchise was Albert turning down their 180 million dollar offer.

 

Not only did that save St. Louis from being stuck with that albatross contract, it allowed them to sign Beltran who has been better than Pujols on a vastly cheaper three year deal.

[TheCrew07]

It just becomes oh-so-easy to think that tearing it all down is the right move and that the team obviously has no plan. But as someone said earlier, no plan has any guarantees, nor do any prospects. Furthermore, there's no guarantee that trading the guys many are targeting would actually yield the quality prospects everyone seems to assume they would -- OR that those prospects would develop. But if they went all-in with that approach, I'd still say there's a far greater chance of ending up like the Royals than the few who actually get over the hump & contend.

I question whether you read the entire thread or just chose to repeat the same "prospects fail" mantra that you so diligently subscribe to? For example did you read Stache's incredibly thorough breakdown on Melvin's history in management? I would think it's prudent to arm oneself with all of the facts and think the matter through before posting on this topic.

I don't necessarily disagree with you 'Stache. I'm just saying, it could be worse. There's no guarantee DM's hypothetical replacement would be better.

Fair enough but that's not a very good reason against moving in a different direction. We already know what we're going to get on this path. Personally I'm not one to let fear of the unknown be a primary motivating factor to keep me from doing anything, I'm not wired that way.

[adambr2]

The philosophy of the franchise the last 5 years is, reload not rebuild.

 

Unfortunately, they've reached the point where there is not enough ammo left to reload, either on the farm or in spending money.

[Invader3K]

The philosophy of the franchise the last 5 years is, reload not rebuild.

 

Unfortunately, they've reached the point where there is not enough ammo left to reload, either on the farm or in spending money.

 

This is why I think Attanasio is going to be forced to give in and accept a real rebuild, even if it's a short 1-2 year one. Some combination of guys like Hunter Morris, Logan Schafer (not really a prospect anymore but just an example), and Tyler Thornburg won't bring back a top pitcher to patch yet another gap in our rotation that has developed.

[adambr2]

I think Mark A's best course of action right now would be to accept a full blown rebuild, but I don't think he will. I don't know if he has it in him.

 

We just aren't good enough to continue on this path. This year to year, patch the holes and try again approach is fine if you're a .500 team that just needs a little tweaking, but we no longer are.

 

Guys coming up like Scooter Gennett, Hunter Morris, Johhny Hellweg...these are nice complementary prospects. They aren't ones that are going to improve you to contender status from one 10 games under .500.

 

I actually think a patient, long-term rebuild is probably the best course of action at this point, but I'm sure the idea of willingly taking the Brewers out of contention for 5 years is pretty scary, especially considering how long it took to get the state of Wisconsin interested in the team again.

 

Especially when such a strategy would probably even involve shopping Braun. I know that sounds insane, but under a 5 year rebuilding plan, why wouldn't they? Braun would be 34-35 by the time they were in contention again, and I'm sure he's probably not interested in being part of a rebuilding effort at this point in his career.

[logan82]

I wonder if Braun would ask to be traded instead of going through a rebuild. I really get the feeling he would not like a rebuild.

[craigharmann]

I don't know what they do. Obviously, you've got a decent 1b prospect in Morris, a 2b prospect in Gennett. 3rd, Parker hasn't really hit for average, but he's 25, why not give him a shot. See if you can trade Hart, Weeks, A-Ram for prospects. I wouldn't trade Aoki, because he's under control and doesn't cost much.

 

The bigger challenge is pitching. There's a lot of question marks coming up, and so far, they're still question marks. If you trade Hart, Weeks and A-Ram for pitching prospects, maybe pick up another 3B prospect, that's a good start. But, longer term, what do you do? DM got the team to the playoffs, something that hadn't happened since '82. That's good and well, but do you rest on those laurels and say, hey, he did that, but we've taken steps back, and looking forward, it doesn't really look like we'll step forward. I'd say DM has had his chance, bring in a new GM, a new idea of scouting, and see where it goes. At best, we become a perennial playoff contender, at worst, we're back to 2002. We've been there. Right now, I'm not the most excited about this not that great, not that awful.

[adambr2]

I can't imagine Weeks having any trade value at all anymore.

 

I'd put him on waivers in August and hope some GM is dumb enough to claim him, but I think that was more of a strategy for last year and probably wouldn't work now.

[Thurston Fluff]

I think Mark A's best course of action right now would be to accept a full blown rebuild, but I don't think he will. I don't know if he has it in him.

 

This is why firing Melvin and starting over won't work. The problem, if one feels the organization isn't going to be able to compete soon, isn't Melvin. It's the owner not allowing the GM to do his job without interference. Personally I'm not so sure the organization is going on the wrong direction. Yest his is a bad stretch. I don't think this team is out of it yet though they are digging a pretty deep hole. I think the pitchers aren't as bad as they look now. Guys like Peralta and Fiers weren't doing very well at AAA at this point last season. They started to put it together as the season moved on. Even if this season is a step back we knew this was a year when we needed everything to go right to contend to begin with. Not to mention so far the team has had the toughest strength of schedule in baseball. They aren't playing well at the moment and have to do it against the toughest schedule. That isn't going to be the case all season.

[3and2Fastball]

I wouldn't trade Aoki, because he's under control and doesn't cost much.

 

Those are the precise reasons to trade Aoki: being under control and inexpensive, plus having a larger sample now of proven ability to hit MLB pitching, gives Aoki some trade value.

[adambr2]

I think Mark A's best course of action right now would be to accept a full blown rebuild, but I don't think he will. I don't know if he has it in him.

 

This is why firing Melvin and starting over won't work. The problem, if one feels the organization isn't going to be able to compete soon, isn't Melvin. It's the owner not allowing the GM to do his job without interference. Personally I'm not so sure the organization is going on the wrong direction. Yest his is a bad stretch. I don't think this team is out of it yet though they are digging a pretty deep hole. I think the pitchers aren't as bad as they look now. Guys like Peralta and Fiers weren't doing very well at AAA at this point last season. They started to put it together as the season moved on. Even if this season is a step back we knew this was a year when we needed everything to go right to contend to begin with. Not to mention so far the team has had the toughest strength of schedule in baseball. They aren't playing well at the moment and have to do it against the toughest schedule. That isn't going to be the case all season.

 

I do agree with this. I think that if the team were to go the rebuilding route, Melvin shouldn't be retained for it, but it won't make a bit of difference if Mark A can't step away and not interfere.

 

I think the rotation will improve as well, but by the time they do, the bullpen may falter -- they aren't putting up a 3.14 ERA all year.

 

So it's difficult for me to see this team being north of .500 again this year.

[craigharmann]

I wouldn't trade Aoki, because he's under control and doesn't cost much.

 

Those are the precise reasons to trade Aoki: being under control and inexpensive, plus having a larger sample now of proven ability to hit MLB pitching, gives Aoki some trade value.

 

Wouldn't that be the type of player to stockpile, if you're building for the future?

[TooLiveBrew]

I wouldn't trade Aoki, because he's under control and doesn't cost much.

 

Those are the precise reasons to trade Aoki: being under control and inexpensive, plus having a larger sample now of proven ability to hit MLB pitching, gives Aoki some trade value.

 

Wouldn't that be the type of player to stockpile, if you're building for the future?

Definitely, but not when he's already 31. His value will never be higher than it is currently.