General thoughts on the franchise.

[paul253]

They won because Larussa managed circles around RR who managed the series like the regular season. Also because David Freese hit like Babe Ruth and Albert Pujols hit like, well Albert Pujols.

Managing helped but it didn't win the series. St. Louis won because overall they were a better team. Shaun Marcum had a great start to the year but he tanked in the end. In the biggest game of the year, Game 6 of the NLCS, with the Brewers back at home where they had dominated and with Zack Greinke in line to pitch Game 7, the Brewers threw Shaun Marcum out there. If I remember correctly it was 4-0 before the Brewers even got a chance to bat. The next year the Brewers were barely a .500 team while St. Louis, minus Tony Larussa and Dave Duncan, were back in the NLCS. This year about a third of the way into the season St. Louis is in first place and Milwaukee is a mess.

 

Also, I get really, really annoyed by the argument that if you get frustrated with the the state of the franchise, disagree with anything Melvin does, or don't watch the team on tv as often when they are losing you are not a real fan. I am frustrated with the direction of the franchise and think the future is bleak. Hell I said that back in 2011 when they had the second best record in the NL. But I still care. I'll admit that when it comes to the Bucks I'm a fair weather fan. I couldn't care less about them now. But I am still a Brewers fan and I want them to win.

 

Another poster mentioned this but Milwaukee has been filled with bandaids the past few seasons. With essentially the same team from 2010 in 2011 they went out and got 2 years of Greinke and Marcum. While it certainly paid off in 2011 it was not a long term solution. Same with 2008 and Sabathia. In both instances they had HUGE dropoffs the following season. Well now the farm system is so weak you aren't going to be seeing bandaids from trades anytime soon. So instead Melvin relies on free agent bandaids like Kyle Lohse. Is the team better with Lohse? Sure. If the future of the franchise better minus a first round pick and $30 million less to spend? I don't think so. I don't agree with the strategy of overpaying veterans to win more now (I say "win more" as opposed to "win" in general because I think either way we are not a franchise that can win year in and year out like St. Louis)

 

Everyone here knows that the key to sustained success is young, cheap, impact pitching. And everyone here knows that when it comes to obtaining young, cheap, impact pitching Melvin scores a F-. He can't draft them. And the guys he's traded for (Zach Jackson, Capellan, Hellweg, Pena come to mind) haven't been overly successful either. He couldn't do it in Texas and he can't do it here. If you are ok with a team that wins once every 5 or 6 years and falls back to a few games over .500 all the other years then I'm sure you're ok with what Milwaukee has become. I would like to shoot a little higher and go for a team that can consistently compete for playoffs spots. I don't think that is where we are right now and I don't see it in near future because of the aging roster and the lack of pitching.

[vegasbrewcrew1993]

perfect post. the brewers have gotten by with band-aids the last few years. the brewers are out of band-aids. there are no more prospects left that are good enough to net the team an ace pitcher. a minor rebuild is necessary. aramis, hart, or both could bring back good prospects. the brewers just cannot keep ignoring pitching. the cardinals kicked the brewers @ss in 2011 because they had pitching. the cardinals had 2 aces in carpenter and wainwright, a solid #3 in jamie garcia, edwin jackson was decent, and i dont remember the #5 guy.

 

The above post about the Cards in 2011 is just so far off

 

1) Wainwright was out all year and didn't pitch

2) The Cards didn't have a starter go more than 5 innings all series.

 

They won because Larussa managed circles around RR who managed the series like the regular season. Also because David Freese hit like Babe Ruth and Albert Pujols hit like, well Albert Pujols.

 

1. I'm not a Cardinals fan so I'm not going to remember every time Wainwright and Carpenter got hurt.

 

2. I'm talking about PITCHING overall. This include the starting rotation and bullpen. Even if their starters only went 5 innings, they did a good enough job to slow down the Brewers offense. They won because their pitching was better than the Brewers pitching. The scoreboards indicate that. In the end the Cardinals scored more runs than the Brewers, which that Cardinal pitching was better than Brewer pitching.

[Thurston Fluff]

2. I'm talking about PITCHING overall. This include the starting rotation and bullpen. Even if their starters only went 5 innings, they did a good enough job to slow down the Brewers offense. They won because their pitching was better than the Brewers pitching. The scoreboards indicate that. In the end the Cardinals scored more runs than the Brewers, which that Cardinal pitching was better than Brewer pitching.

 

In 2011 the Brewers staff had more k's, fewer walks, gave up fewer hits, had a lower ERA and had a lower WHIP than the Cards. They did so in a more hitter friendly ballpark and a poorer defense behind them. There wasn't a single category that the Cards staff did better than the Brewers staff. It had less to do with who had the better pitching than it did who had the hot pitching at the moment. The playoffs are as much about getting hot at the right time as it is about who is better. The Cards pitched well over their heads the entire post season. Not just against the Brewers. RRR didn't have the luxury of any particular group of players playing well above anything they did before that run or after. If you wish to give LaRussa credit for that go ahead. It just seems weird that he could do that one season but fail to do so in several other post season runs when he had even better pitching and overall better teams. Except of course the only other time he won a WS with them. The one where Jeff Suppan pitched like Cy Young.

[TheCrew07]

In 2011 the Brewers staff had more k's, fewer walks, gave up fewer hits, had a lower ERA and had a lower WHIP than the Cards. They did so in a more hitter friendly ballpark and a poorer defense behind them. There wasn't a single category that the Cards staff did better than the Brewers staff. It had less to do with who had the better pitching than it did who had the hot pitching at the moment. The playoffs are as much about getting hot at the right time as it is about who is better. The Cards pitched well over their heads the entire post season.

 

This is the major difference between us, where you see luck I see match-ups. The way the post season is structured it doesn't matter if our 4/5 starters are better or if our bottom 3 relievers are better than the opposition's. With the off days between games depth doesn't matter, it's essentially irrelevant until you get into extra innings. The post season is all about matching best on best because there is so much rest scheduled into a playoff series that relief pitchers are rarely unavailable. You aren't going to wear out a pen and get to the crap in the post season like you are the regular season, as such what happened in the regular season is meaningless. The Cards were fortunate when Suppan pitched out of his mind but not in 2011, the strength of their pitching was the bullpen and Larussa played to his team's strength masterfully.

 

When teams shorten their rotation and their bullpen the talent at the top matters much more than the talent at the bottom. Our pitching talent has never matched up with the best in the game, even in 2011, luck had nothing to do with it. The pitchers are the top of our rotation aren't efficient enough to give us 7-8 innings against the better line-ups in the league which we will see in the post season allowing us the luxury of exclusively using our best bullpen arms. We're always had to throw someone "iffy" in a big game from either the starting rotation or the bullpen.

 

Playoff baseball is different, it requires a different strategy and a different outlook. There is no waiting for a guy to bust out of his slump, you only 5 or 7 games, players have to perform right now. The hot hand matters in the post season, if a pitcher is slumping you'd better be damn sure he's fixed whatever is wrong by the next time you put him out there or you are setting yourself up to fail. When you get to the point where 1 game and possibly one at bat will determine your season historic performance doesn't matter much.

[danzig6767]

perfect post. the brewers have gotten by with band-aids the last few years. the brewers are out of band-aids. there are no more prospects left that are good enough to net the team an ace pitcher. a minor rebuild is necessary. aramis, hart, or both could bring back good prospects. the brewers just cannot keep ignoring pitching. the cardinals kicked the brewers @ss in 2011 because they had pitching. the cardinals had 2 aces in carpenter and wainwright, a solid #3 in jamie garcia, edwin jackson was decent, and i dont remember the #5 guy.

 

The above post about the Cards in 2011 is just so far off

 

1) Wainwright was out all year and didn't pitch

2) The Cards didn't have a starter go more than 5 innings all series.

 

They won because Larussa managed circles around RR who managed the series like the regular season. Also because David Freese hit like Babe Ruth and Albert Pujols hit like, well Albert Pujols.

 

Their bullpen was incredible during that 2011 run. We may never see a World Series winning team get carried by a bullpen in the playoffs like the Cardinals got that year.

 

In fact, we may never see a team win a title in the manner St. Louis won that year. First they needed an absolute monumental collapse by Atlanta to just make the playoffs. Then vs the Brewers, nobody in their rotation went more than five innings, yet their bullpen became unhittable. Finally, in the World Series vs Texas, they were one strike away from losing in back to back innings, only to get saved by Freese and Nelson Cuz misplaying a fly ball.

[paul253]

Regardless of how St. Louis got into the postseason or who the better team was that year the fact is the Cardinals have been able to sustain that success, even without their star in Albert Pujols, and the Brewers have not. Looking at team ERAs it's not hard to figure out why. Last season St. Louis' was 3.71 and ours was 4.22. This season theirs is 3.09 and ours is 4.46.

 

I've shown in the past the Brewers success the past decade or so is almost directly related to their team ERA ranking. When they made the playoffs in 2008 their team ERA was second in the NL. In 2011 it was 7th. On the flip side, in 2009 their rank was 15th. In 2010 they were 14th. In 2012 they were 13th. And so far this year they are 14th. Since 2000 the only time their team ERA ranked in the top half of the league and they didn't make the playoffs was 2005 when they ranked 5th. What that shows is not only how important pitching is but also how bad their pitching has been under Doug Melvin. They've only finished in the top half of the league in terms of team ERA 3 times in his ten seasons with no end in sight. Meanwhile St. Louis has been in the top half of the league in team ERA 7 of those ten years, not including this season with their first place ranking so far.

 

If the Brewers are ever going to have a run of five or six years in a row where they are contenders they need better pitching, plain and simple. And nothing about Doug Melvin's track record has shown that he is able to acquire better pitching. Like I said before, if you are happy with a year, maybe two, of good competitive teams followed by three or four down seasons then I'm sure you're happy. I'd rather field competitive teams every year and I don't think Doug Melvin is capable of doing that here.

[LouisEly]

We've been living on a razor thin margin for error with an aging and expensive roster, no team that operates in that manner in any sport will thrive for very long. It happened to my Red Wings in hockey when Stevie Y got old, it happened to the Cubs and Boston when they got old in MLB, it happend to the Packers when Mike Sherman was the GM constantly trying to plug holes with aging and declining players.

1) Every team has an aging roster. No one is from Ork.

 

B) If you mean "old", Braun is 29, Segura is 23, Gomez is 27, Gallardo is 27, Peralta is 24, Estrada is 29, Lucroy is 27, Aoki is 31, Hart is 31, Henderson is 30. That's not old.

 

3) Yes, it happened to the Wings, the Cubs, and Boston. It also happened to the San Francisco Giants. They stunk, got four consecutive years of top 10 picks that they used to acquire the cornerstones of their franchise including young starting pitching (Lincecum, Bumgarner, Posey, Wheeler), coupled that with the face of the franchise (Cain), traded for some vets to fill some holes (Pence, Lopez, Scutaro)... oh yeah, and signed a couple of free agent starting pitchers well into their 30's (Vogelsong, Zito) and a couple of other free agents over 30 (Burrell, Huff). Won two World Series.

 

And they did this while whiffing on three of their six first round picks in 2007 (and two of the other three have made the majors but only by default, projecting to be replacement level at best).

[paul253]

That's not old.

 

It's possible that before the start of next season 5 of the 8 regular position players (Braun, Aoki, Ramirez, Weeks, Hart) will all be 30 or older. I'm sorry but that IS old.

 

It also happened to the San Francisco Giants.

 

The difference between the Brewers and the Giants has been the ability to develop pitching. It's not just having top picks. From 2002-2007 three of the Giants first round picks were Lincecum, Bumgarner, and Cain. And Cain was the 25th pick so it's not like the Giants had an easy choice. The Brewers, outside of Sheets and Gallardo still have yet to develop a successful major league starter. If you can't develop pitching you aren't going to win because, as the Brewers have found out, you can only trade for so many established pitchers.

[LouisEly]

Yes, it is having top picks. Lincecum and Bumgarner were top 10 picks. And Buster Posey was the league MVP. The last two NL MVPs were top 5 picks.

 

My point is that if the Brewers suck in two years, then they can get top picks, just like they did from 2003-2007, and build another playoff contender. The Giants haven't always been contenders. The Rays haven't always been contenders - they sucked for a decade.

[logan82]

Regardless of how St. Louis got into the postseason or who the better team was that year the fact is the Cardinals have been able to sustain that success, even without their star in Albert Pujols, and the Brewers have not. Looking at team ERAs it's not hard to figure out why.

The Cardinals realized one player does not make the team and knew when to cut bait.

[JimH5]

Yes, it is having top picks. Lincecum and Bumgarner were top 10 picks. And Buster Posey was the league MVP. The last two NL MVPs were top 5 picks.

 

My point is that if the Brewers suck in two years, then they can get top picks, just like they did from 2003-2007, and build another playoff contender. The Giants haven't always been contenders. The Rays haven't always been contenders - they sucked for a decade.

 

To me, a 65 win team is not any different than a 75 win team. There is no added pleasure in winning those extra 10 games.

 

So if a team is destined to be under .500, then they should really cut bait.

[brewcrewdue80]

Here's the sad history of the franchise. Looking back 20years. I can come up with 4SPs who gave 2 or more quality pitching seasons for Milwaukee. That we brought up through our system.

 

#1 Scott Karl

#2 Cal Eldred

#3 Ben Sheets

#4 Yovani Gallardo

 

That is it. Quality being throwing 170ip+ with respectable ERA. Scott Karl numbers don't jump out at you but pitching in the midst of steroid era baseball in the AL he was a workhorse.

 

So in 20 years we haven't even brought up a full 5man rotation from within. This was probably hashed hard by Boras in to Mark A's ears on selling Lohse to him. And I get the argument of at least getting something from Lohse that likely we wouldn't get from the draft pick. History by our franchise dictates so right.

[BrewersSuperCollector]

I may be in the minority, but I believe the Brewers should draft pitching, pitching, and more pitching. Hitters can be picked up in free agency easily and many times below going rate. Having quality pitching in the minors allows a team to trade for hitters.

[trwi7]

Yes, it is having top picks. Lincecum and Bumgarner were top 10 picks. And Buster Posey was the league MVP. The last two NL MVPs were top 5 picks.

 

My point is that if the Brewers suck in two years, then they can get top picks, just like they did from 2003-2007, and build another playoff contender. The Giants haven't always been contenders. The Rays haven't always been contenders - they sucked for a decade.

 

To me, a 65 win team is not any different than a 75 win team. There is no added pleasure in winning those extra 10 games.

 

So if a team is destined to be under .500, then they should really cut bait.

 

A 65 win team and a 75 win team are different. I'd rather be the 65 win team because you can get a higher draft pick.

[paul253]

Yes, it is having top picks. Lincecum and Bumgarner were top 10 picks. And Buster Posey was the league MVP. The last two NL MVPs were top 5 picks.

And Mark Rogers was the #5 pick. Jeremy Jeffress was the #16 pick. Dylan Covey was the #14 pick. Taylor Jungmann was the #12 pick. Jed Bradley was the #15 pick. Mike Jones was the #12 pick. Going back a little further JM Gold was the #13 pick. Those are 7 pitchers taken with picks in the top 16 overall in their respective drafts and not one of them has turned out. I agree that having higher selections certainly helps but you have to something with those picks. When the Brewers had their top draft picks and used them hitters they generally did pretty well (Fielder at #7, Braun at #5, Weeks at #2) but for whatever reason their top picks of pitchers have generally been duds. And that has been the problem. The complete inability to draft quality pitching.

 

And for what it's worth, the Brewers had a chance to pick Bumgarner but selected LaPorta instead.

 

My point is that if the Brewers suck in two years, then they can get top picks, just like they did from 2003-2007, and build another playoff contender. The Giants haven't always been contenders.

 

Unless they continue to do what they've been doing for years now and fail to draft a quality pitcher. Having the #6 pick one year instead of the #15 pick and having the #4 pick the next year instead of the #13 pick isn't going to save this franchise. Beginning to hit on pitchers on a consistent basis will.

[vegasbrewcrew1993]

Yes, it is having top picks. Lincecum and Bumgarner were top 10 picks. And Buster Posey was the league MVP. The last two NL MVPs were top 5 picks.

 

My point is that if the Brewers suck in two years, then they can get top picks, just like they did from 2003-2007, and build another playoff contender. The Giants haven't always been contenders. The Rays haven't always been contenders - they sucked for a decade.

 

To me, a 65 win team is not any different than a 75 win team. There is no added pleasure in winning those extra 10 games.

 

So if a team is destined to be under .500, then they should really cut bait.

 

A 65 win team and a 75 win team are different. I'd rather be the 65 win team because you can get a higher draft pick.

 

I think that's what he meant. There's no difference between a 65 and a 75 win team. Both suck so you might as well suck as bad as possible. I agree with him. What the hell is the point in finishing 79-83? If you're season is over by August, it's better to tank as much as possible. If the Brewers are 7 games under .500 in August, I'd prefer it if they tank.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Yes, it is having top picks. Lincecum and Bumgarner were top 10 picks. And Buster Posey was the league MVP. The last two NL MVPs were top 5 picks.

 

My point is that if the Brewers suck in two years, then they can get top picks, just like they did from 2003-2007, and build another playoff contender. The Giants haven't always been contenders. The Rays haven't always been contenders - they sucked for a decade.

 

To me, a 65 win team is not any different than a 75 win team. There is no added pleasure in winning those extra 10 games.

 

So if a team is destined to be under .500, then they should really cut bait.

 

A 65 win team and a 75 win team are different. I'd rather be the 65 win team because you can get a higher draft pick.

 

I got a chuckle out of this. Thanks.

[The stache]

After some pretty in-depth examination of the entire Milwaukee Brewers organization (including comparisons to our divisional opponents), I think the franchise as a whole is in serious trouble, and in need of an immediate, major overhaul. If several drastic changes are not made soon, the Brewers could very easily revert to where they were from 1993 to 2006, when they did not have a single winning season.

 

The problem starts at the very top with Doug Melvin. After a stint as assistant scouting director with the New York Yankees, Melvin's first managerial position would come with the Baltimore Orioles. Melvin served as special assistant to GM Roland Hemond in 1987, then as Baltimore's assistant general manager and director of player development from 1988 to 1993. During this time, the Orioles compiled a 525-607 record, and never made the playoffs. When looking back at this period, a pattern that would become all too familiar is first apparent. Baltimore as a team stressed offense over pitching.

 

http://img855.imageshack.us/img855/4769/melvinagm.png

Melvin's record as assistant general manager, and director of player development with the Baltimore Orioles.

 

In 1989, Melvin's second season as assistant general manager and director of player development, the Orioles were 5th in the Majors in runs scored, and 20th in runs allowed (out of 26 teams). In three of the last five years Melvin was with the Orioles, the team's offense finished in the top ten in runs scored. The best the Oriole pitching staff performed was in 1992, when they finished 16th in the Major Leagues in ERA (out of 26 teams). Now, I have separated these figures from Melvin's time as GM because while highly influential, Melvin did not have the final say on roster decisions. He was, after all, only the assistant GM.

 

In 1994, Doug Melvin began an eight year stint as general manager of the Texas Rangers. During this time, the Rangers made the playoffs three times, yet never fielded a true contender for the World Series title, again, because their pitching did not measure up. The Rangers under Melvin stressed hitting over pitching. Living in the Dallas area since 1989, I have witnessed Melvin's philosophy up close. Six times in eight seasons the Rangers finished in the top ten in runs scored, and they finished in the top 15 (or, top half) every single season. Comparatively, the Rangers pitching staff never once finished in the top 15 in the Majors. In 1998 and 1989, the Rangers made the playoffs despite finishing 26th and 24th in runs allowed. In his final two seasons as the GM in Texas, the Ranger pitching staff finished dead last in the Majors in ERA.

 

After serving as a consultant to the Boston Red Sox in 2002, Doug Melvin was hired on as general manager of the Milwaukee Brewers. Barring a major comeback this season, the Brewers will have made the postseason twice in eleven seasons. Again, the Brewers franchise has been constructed with an "offense first" mentality. Between 2007 and 2012, the Brewers as a franchise finished in the top half of all Major League teams in runs scored (except for 2008, when they finished 17th of 30 teams). When compared to other National League teams (who as a rule score less frequently than American League teams as they do not utilize a designated hitter), the Brewers finished in the top third in runs scored each season (except for 2008). The Brewers' pitching staff, however, has been a different story. The Brewers have had very poor pitching overall during Melvin's tenure, despite making trades for several top-flight starters. The 2008 staff was a notable exception, as Milwaukee finished 4th in the Majors in ERA. However, that number is somewhat misleading. The team's ERA was lowered because of the trade for C.C. Sabathia (the 2007 AL Cy Young Award winner), who for his half a season in Milwaukee put up absolutely dominant numbers. Sabathia's ERA while with the Brewers was 1.65, lowering the team's ERA to 3.85 ERA overall. Without Sabathia, the team's ERA would have been 4.07, which would have placed them 13th in the Majors. Still good, but nowhere near the top. The next season, the Brewers without Sabathia (or Ben Sheets) fell to 26th in the Majors in ERA. Since 2008, when the Brewers made the playoffs for the first time since 1982, the Milwaukee has finished 26th in the Majors in team ERA in 2009, 26th in 2010, 9th in 2011, 22nd in 2012, and are currently 25th in 2013.

 

http://img824.imageshack.us/img824/295/melvingm.png

Doug Melvin's record as general manager with the Texas Rangers and Milwaukee Brewers.

 

In twenty-six years as either an assistant general manager, or general manager, Doug Melvin's teams have made the playoffs five times, winning one series, when the Brewers beat the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2011. Melvin's squads are 1-5 overall in playoff series, and 7-18 in postseason games. Melvin's lack of success can be directly tied to a failure to draft and develop quality pitching.

 

Here is a record of the pitchers that have been drafted in the first five rounds under Doug Melvin (plus any others with substantial MLB service time), either as an assistant gm, or general manager (note: DNP=did not, or has not yet played a game in the Majors):

 

Baltimore Orioles

1988: Gregg Olson (40-39, 3.46 ERA, 217 sv), Arthur Rhodes (87-70, 4.08 ERA, 30 sv), Stacy Jones (6 games, 3.46 ERA)

1989: Ben McDonald (79-70, 3.91 ERA), Tommy Taylor (DNP), Eric Alexander (DNP), Matt Anderson (DNP)

1990: *Mike Mussina (270-153, 3.68 ERA), Eric Schullstrom (46 games, 6.00 ERA), Jeff Williams (DNP), Bobby Chouinard (11-8, 4.57 ERA, 111 games)

1991: Vaughn Eshelman (15-9, 6.07 ERA, 83 games), Jimmy Haynes (63-89, 5.37 ERA, 227 games. 7th round), Rick Krivda (11-16, 5.57 ERA, 72 games. 23rd round)

1992: Brian Sackinsky (3.86 ERA, 3 games), Scott Klingenbeck (5-8, 6.91 ERA, 39 games), Garrett Stephenson (39-39, 4.55 ERA, 123 games, 18th round), Joey Dawley (0-0, 10.91 ERA, 8 games, 28th round)

1993: Jay Powell (36-23, 4.17 ERA, 22 saves, 512 games), Rocky Coppinger (17-11, 5.47 ERA, 82 games, 19th round)

* Mussina was originally drafted by the Orioles in the 11th round of the 1987 amateur draft, but did not sign.

 

Texas Rangers

1994: Dan Hower (DNP), Jim Brower (33-32, 4.67 ERA, 354 games. 6th round), Scott Stewart (11-6, 3.99 ERA, 214 games, 20th round)

1995: Jonathan Johnson (2-4, 6.63 ERA, 42 games), Ryan Dempster (126-129, 4.34 ERA, 557 games), Ryan Glynn (9-20, 6.24, 52 games), Danny Kolb (11-23, 4.36 ERA, 290 games, 6th round), Brandon Knight (1-0, 8.62 ERA, 15 games, 14th round)

1996: R.A. Dickey (65-61, 4.01, 248 games), Sam Marsonek (1 game), Corey Lee (0-1, 27.00 ERA), Doug Davis (92-108, 4.44 ERA, 306 games, 10th round), Mark Hendrickson (58-74, 5.03 ERA, 328 games, 19th round), Joe Beimel (24-32, 4.21 ERA, 567 games, 26th round)

1997: Chris Tynan (DNP), Dave Elder (1-3, 4.62 ERA, 19 games)

1998: Barry Zito (163-135, 3.93 ERA, 409 games, did not sign), Ryan Dittfurth (DNP)

1999: Colby Lewis (44-44, 4.76 ERA, 152 games), David Mead (DNP), Nick Regelio (1-6, 5.35 ERA, 24 games), Andy Cavazos (0-0, 10.35 ERA, 17 games), Victor Hillaert (DNP), Aaron Harang (106-109, 4.26 ERA, 305 games, 6th round), Dennis Sarfate (5-4, 4.53 ERA, 92 games, 15th round), Noah Lowry (40-31, 4.03 ERA, 106 games, 19th round)

2000: Chad Hawkins (DNP), Randy Truselo (DNP), Chris Russ (DNP), Greg Runser (DNP), Virgil Vasquez (2-6, 6.60 ERA, 19 games, 7th round), Nick Masset (16-14, 3.78 ERA, 308 games, 8th round), A.J. Murray (2-2, 4.29 ERA, 16 games)

2001: Josh Baker (DNP), C.J. Wilson (60-48, 3.63 ERA, 369 games)

 

Milwaukee Brewers

2003: Mitch Stetter (8-2, 4.08 ERA, 132 games, 16th round), Ty Taubenheim (1-4, 5.09 ERA, 14 games, 16th round)

2004: Mark Rogers (3-1, 3.49 ERA, 11 games), Yovani Gallardo (72-47, 3.69 ERA, 161 games), Joshua Wahpeper (DNP), Josh Baker (DNP), Kanekoa Teixeira (1-1, 4.66 ERA, 49 games, 31st round)

2005: Wil Inman (DNP), Kevin Roberts (DNP), Steve Garrison (1 game, 10th round), Andrew Bailey (9-11, 2.44 ERA, 190 games, 16th round), Zach Braddock (1-3, 4.41 ERA, 71 games, 18th round), Jake Arrieta (20-24, 5.40 ERA, 68 games, 26th round)

2006: Jeremy Jeffress (2-1, 4.99 ERA, 38 games), Evan Andunsen (DNP), Mike McClendon (5-0, 3.88 ERA, 35 games, 10th round)

2007: Brewers did not draft a pitcher in the first five rounds, nor has any pitcher drafted in this year reached the Major Leagues

2008: Jake Odorizzi (0-1, 5.11 ERA, 3 games), Evan Frederickson (DNP), Seth Lintz (DNP), Cody Adams (DNP), Josh Romanski (DNP), Maverick Lasker (DNP), Lucas Luetge (2-3, 4.67 ERA, 74 games, 21st round)

2009: Eric Arnett (DNP), Kyle Heckathorn (DNP), Brooks Hall (DNP), Hiram Burgos (1-2, 6.44 ERA, 6 games, 6th round), Mike Fiers (10-12, 3.89 ERA, 33 games, 22nd round)

2010: Dylan Covey (DNP), Jimmy Nelson (DNP), Tyler Thornburg (0-0, 4.50 ERA, 8 games, Matt Miller (DNP)

2011: Taylor Jungmann (DNP), Jed Bradley (DNP), Jorge Lopez (DNP), Drew Gagnon (DNP),

2012: Zach Quintana (DNP), Tyler Wagner (DNP), Damien Magnifico (DNP)

 

The Milwaukee Brewers under Melvin did not draft a single pitcher in the first five rounds of the 2003 amateur draft.

The Milwaukee Brewers did not draft a single pitcher in the first five rounds of the 2007 amateur draft, nor has any pitcher drafted that year reached the Major Leagues.

 

Doug Melvin is a very poor judge of pitching talent, and as long as he remains as general manager of the Milwaukee Brewers, that will continue to haunt our franchise. Since Melvin has been in a position of influence, he has drafted few pitchers that have experienced any success in the Major Leagues. Mike Mussina would be the best pitcher he's drafted, only the Orioles had tried to draft and sign him in 1987 when Melvin was only a special assistant the the GM. The call to draft him again was not his decision. Beyond Mussina, Melvin's most notable drafted pitchers include Ryan Dempster, R.A. Dickey, Barry Zito, Aaron Harang, C.J. Wilson and Yovani Gallardo.

 

The overall talent level in our minor league system is also severely deficient when compared to the other teams in our division. This, too, can be attributed to Melvin's management. The Milwaukee Brewers do not have a single minor league player currently ranked in the top 100 (MLB.com, or Baseball America), and only Wily Peralta was ranked on the list to start the season. We are falling behind the Reds, Pirates, Cubs and Cardinals. The other teams have more young talent, and the talent they have is more highly rated. Baseball America recently named the Cardinal organization as having the best minor league talent in baseball (April 2-16 edition). The Pittsburgh Pirates were ranked 7th. The Chicago Cubs were ranked 12th, the Cincinnati Reds 15th, and the Brewers were ranked 23rd.

 

Top 100 rated minor league talent to start the 2013 season, and their ranking (pitchers in bold)

 

St. Louis Cardinals: Oscar Taveras (3), Shelby Miller (6), Carlos Martinez (38), Trevor Rosenthal (39), Michael Wacha (76), Kolten Wong (84)

Cincinnati Reds: Billy Hamilton (20), Robert Stephenson (56), Tony Cingrani (82), Daniel Corcino (94)

Chicago Cubs: Javier Baez (16), Albert Almora (33), Jorge Soler (34), Arodys Vizcaino (83)

Pittsburgh Pirates: Gerrit Cole (7), Jameson Taillon (19), Gregory Polanco (51), Alen Hanson (61), Luis Heredia (78)

Milwaukee Brewers: Wily Peralta (69)

 

Players that have appeared in the top 100 list within the last eighteen months, by current organization (appearance in elite top 50 in bold):

 

St. Louis Cardinals: nine (Oscar Taveras, Shelby Miller, Trevor Rosenthal, Carlos Martinez, Kolten Wong, Michael Wacha, Matt Adams, Tyrell Jenkins, Zack Cox)

Cincinnati Reds: seven (Billy Hamilton, Robert Stephenson, Tony Cingrani, Zack Cozart, Devin Mesoraco, Daniel Corcino, Jesse Biddle)

Chicago Cubs: seven (Javier Baez, Albert Almora, Jorge Soler, Brett Jackson, Arodyz Vizcaino, Anthony Rizzo, Matt Szczur)

Pittsburgh Pirates: seven (Gerrit Cole, Jameson Taillon, Alen Hanson, Gregory Polanco, Luis Heredia, Josh Bell, Starling Marte)

Milwaukee Brewers: five (Jean Segura, Wily Peralta, Taylor Jungmann, Jed Bradley, Tyler Thornburg)

 

While the prospects we have traded away have been a mixed bag thus far, the practice of trading away young talent for a rental of a top tier pitcher for a season or two (or a half season in Sabathia's case) cannot be continued. Because, when those players eventually leave (Sabathia, Greinke, Marcum), we rarely get anything back in return (Jean Segura being the obvious exception thus far). We need to draft, sign, and develop our own talent, and we need to make substantial changes to our scouts, our coaches, and general manager. They are not getting it done. If changes are not made, the rest of the division will leave us behind.

[Invader3K]

Very good analysis, 'stache. One thing is set in my mind: If the Brewers have to go through a rebuild process again, it shouldn't be under Melvin. It would clearly be time to bring on a new GM, and preferably one from outside the Brewers organization.

[3and2Fastball]

Regardless of how St. Louis got into the postseason or who the better team was that year the fact is the Cardinals have been able to sustain that success, even without their star in Albert Pujols, and the Brewers have not. Looking at team ERAs it's not hard to figure out why.

The Cardinals realized one player does not make the team and knew when to cut bait.

 

Yeah, because the Brewers didn't let Prince Fielder leave

[WV Brew]

Just for comparison and I know it's not altogether fair.

 

Marvin Milkes .398

Frank Lane .423

Jim Wilson .463

Jim Baumer .414

Harry Dalton .520

Sal Bando .476

Dean Taylor .405

Doug Melvin .494

 

The only more successful GM than DM also built the team on hitting with lesser pitching. You should compare the GMs to other Brewer GMs who may not have had the resources of say the Cardinals GM.

[The stache]

Very good analysis, 'stache. One thing is set in my mind: If the Brewers have to go through a rebuild process again, it shouldn't be under Melvin. It would clearly be time to bring on a new GM, and preferably one from outside the Brewers organization.

 

Thank you, Invader3k! And, I agree 100%. Baseball is a business, make no mistake about it, and unless Mark Attanasio wants to see attendance continue to dwindle, he'll make the tough call. Doug Melvin has had nearly 3 decades to show what he could do, and he's been completely incapable of winning it all. He's not going to change-he will not improve upon his weaknesses.

 

Ryan Braun is signed basically for life. He turns 30 in November. There's still plenty of "prime" left in his prime years, but I don't want any hemming and hawing "oh, what should we do, oh what should we do?"

 

Come on, Mark. Put on your big boy pants, and make the tough call. Get a GM in here that knows what they are doing, and let them have complete autonomy as far as selecting their manager and coaching staff. Then, send out some people to talk to the scouts for the Rays, the Dodgers, etc. Ask them who they would recommend as talent evaluators, and hire them!

 

We can waste the best years of #8's career treading water, hoping to get back into the playoffs again at some point, or we can grab the bull by the balls, and fix this franchise.

[The stache]

Just for comparison and I know it's not altogether fair.

 

Marvin Milkes .398

Frank Lane .423

Jim Wilson .463

Jim Baumer .414

Harry Dalton .520

Sal Bando .476

Dean Taylor .405

Doug Melvin .494

 

The only more successful GM than DM also built the team on hitting with lesser pitching. You should compare the GMs to other Brewer GMs who may not have had the resources of say the Cardinals GM.

 

What are we aspiring to here??

 

How many World Series titles did Harry Dalton bring to Milwaukee with that "hitters first" attitude? I'm not trying to be argumentative, but if our measuring stick is a GM that barely made it above .500 during his tenure, we are in trouble.

 

I'm sorry, but I just don't want to settle for the mediocre baseball team that Melvin is able to provide us with. The Brewers have been in the Majors for 43 years now, and have made it to a single World Series, which we lost.

 

Colorado, Arizona, Miami and Tampa Bay have all made it to the World Series. Arizona won the World Series in their fourth year of existence. Miami won it in their fifth and eleventh seasons. How is it they can all get there, yet we'll be at 31 years since we last made it this fall?

[RockCoCougars]

I wouldn't say that the Brewers are guilty of neglecting pitching, but the bottom line is that you can't blow as many drafts as the Brewers have in recent years, in particular first round picks. Even if you took an average first round success rate of 20%, the Brewers are way behind the curve when it comes to pitching- I'm not talking about ace type pitchers either, I'm just talking about guys who could be a serviceable starter for a few years. They haven't exactly been striking gold in the other rounds either when it comes to pitchers. It's gotten to the point where you almost have to assume that both scouting and organizational development play a role in this problem. I'd be interested to know the average tenure of the Brewers' amateur scouts.

[WV Brew]

I don't necessarily disagree with you 'Stache. I'm just saying, it could be worse. There's no guarantee DM's hypothetical replacement would be better.