General thoughts on the franchise.

[Thurston Fluff]

Segura is more the exception than the rule. That is like expecting every rookie to be as good as Braun was. Even if you want to compare them Segura's lowest OBP in the minors was .341. A mark Morris only ever surpassed once. Juan Francisco seems a better comparison. Both had a low OBP in the minors with some power. While Morris had a little higher OBP in the minors Francisco had a higher OBP and OPS in AAA than Morris does. Which would lead me to believe he was more prepared for the majors than Morris is now. Yet look at how he is struggling. I think Morris is going to end up being the better player but I think it gives us as good a picture of what we can expect out of Morris right now.

[TooLiveBrew]

Segura is more the exception than the rule. That is like expecting every rookie to be as good as Braun was.

My point was the statement "[Player X] needs to play a full season at [level X]" isn't inherently true. I used Segura as a real-world example & did not imply that Morris would have that level of success. Prospects all across MLB don't play full seasons at [Level X], get called up & do just fine every season... go ahead & pick any other example case & the point I was trying to make still stands. It's possible that Morris isn't ready & it's also possible he is.

[Thurston Fluff]

Overall I think the philosophy of step by step progression is better than rushing them for overall long term production. But your point is well made that each player has to be measured on his own unique scale. When it comes to Morris right now I think Melvin saying he wasn't ready combined with fairly pedestrian numbers in AAA probably makes the case better than just saying players need a full season to be ready.

[reillymcshane]

General thoughts on the franchise:

 

1. Recognize that 2013 is a lost year. Between terrible pitching and injuries to key hitters, we aren't going anywhere.

 

2. This franchise probably can't contend until at least 2015. Probably 2016.

 

3. Starting pitching is bad, and the farm system lacks high end arms.

 

4. The franchise has long term holes at 1B, 2B and 3B. Our starters at those positions are a combination of injured, aging and free agents. The replacements available are non existent (such as at 3B), or projected to be average, at best.

 

It should be noted that guys like Scooter and Morris, even if only average players, could be very valuable, especially at low prices.

 

5. The team needs to consider a fire sale starting now. Anyone who won't be contributing in 2016 should be made available, with an emphasis on acquiring young players - both starting pitching and position players.

 

Aoki, Ramirez, Weeks, Hart, Lohse, Gallardo, Gorzelanny, Badenhop, Axford, Estrada, Gonzalez all should be shopped. The club could get decent returns for Gallardo, Aoki and Lohse. Ramirez might net something, assuming we assumed a chunk of next year's salary (say $6 million). Hart could get something valuable in return if he returns early enough and shows he's healthy. Gorzelanny, Badenhop and Gonzalez might get you something okay. I'd hold on to Estrada and Weeks to let them try and rebuild their value - even into 2014. I doubt anyone would trade for Axford with his salary, but if someone is interested, great. Otherwise, he is gone in the off season (unless he takes a major pay cut).

 

Final analysis: This team has some nice pieces in Segura, Braun, Lucroy, Gomez. It has some arms that could make for a really good bullpen as well. But we need to have 10 or 12 promising starting pitchers in 2015. Not 3 or 4. The simple fact is young starting pitching fails at an alarming rate. Out of those 10-12 guys, we need to hope that 3 or 4 of the young guys can be successful. Maybe even have someone step up and become exceptional. Peralta, Thornburg, Jimmy Nelson, Taylor Jungmann, Ariel Pena and Johnny Hellweg are just an okay bunch, but we need more. I'd love to see a few top 50 type pitchers added to that list. The only way to do that is make some deals. I love Yo and Aoki, but I just don't see this team winning in the next couple of years with these guys. Then age and free agency start to become a concern.

 

Final note: I'm not convinced blowing up the team is the best move. But at this point, I don't see other realistic options. We could keep the offense intact the next year and a half and be above average in hitting. But the starting pitching would really have to rebound in a big way. Lohse is pitching probably how we expected him, but Estrada, Yo and Peralta are underperforming. Perhaps the club feels those guys will rebound and/or breakout next year. But at best, you're probably looking at a staff that is middle of the road.

 

Thus, I keep coming back to the overhaul of the team. I don't like the idea, but it's probably the best thing at this point.

[The stache]

My thoughts on the franchise right now?

 

Milwaukee Brewers. 28-41, last place NL Central.

Nashville Sounds (AAA). 24-46, last place Pacific Coast League.

Huntsville Stars (AA). 29-39, last place Southern League North (first half).

Brevard County Manatees (A+). 36-30, second place Florida State League North.

Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (A). 29-36, seventh place (of 8) Midwest League East.

 

Combined record: 146-192. 46 games below .500.

 

Our Major League, AAA and AA teams are all the worst in their respective divisions. Only Burlington's 26-39 record keeps our A class team from being in last place. Our High A team is the only one that is not below .500, and at the bottom of the barrel.

 

My thoughts on the franchise? We do not have the talent to compete at any level.

 

Doug Melvin has stripped this organization of talent from top to bottom.

[sveumrules]

I'm not saying the Brewers minor league system is any great shakes, as it very clearly isn't, but team W-L record at the minor league level tells you nothing about the kind of prospects on that team. We could put together a team of 24/25 year old minor league veterans and win the Midwest League going away, but that wouldn't make any of them prospects.

[3and2Fastball]

Doug Melvin has stripped this organization of talent from top to bottom.

 

That is [sarcasm]kinda[/sarcasm] a problem.

 

He stands poised to revitalize the organization with trades of Gallardo, Aoki, Ramirez, Axford, Henderson, K-Rod, Lohse.

 

But I'm betting he won't do it. And normally I would say that should be reason for him to be fired. However I think the reason he won't make all those trades is he will be ordered not to by Mark A. And therein lies the bigger (biggest) part of the problem

[ewitkows]

Other than Jake O and Escobar there's no one he traded that I want back. He hasn't stripped the organization he's just done an incredibly poor job drafting the last 4-5 years

[The stache]

I'm not saying the Brewers minor league system is any great shakes, as it very clearly isn't, but team W-L record at the minor league level tells you nothing about the kind of prospects on that team. We could put together a team of 24/25 year old minor league veterans and win the Midwest League going away, but that wouldn't make any of them prospects.

 

It might not say a lot about the individual prospects, but it does say that when we play our young talent against the young talent other teams have put together, we're losing a hell of a lot more than we're winning.

[Baldkin]

Wins/Average Age per level would be an interesting statistic to track going backwards. If only I had the time. ha!

[Roderick]

Other than Jake O and Escobar there's no one he traded that I want back. He hasn't stripped the organization he's just done an incredibly poor job drafting the last 4-5 years

 

I'll take 1.5 years of Grienke (and playoffs) + Segura/pitchers over Jake O/Escobar/Cain. It has just been the drafting/developing that has been subpar, especially the pitching.

[SoupTown]

Since our drafting and development have gotten us here (I agree it is why we are where we are)... AND the same mob that draft and develop are very much unchanged... it does not give much hope for the future.

[Fear The Chorizo]

It's not trades, as others have mentioned most of the players he's traded away wouldn't be improvements over what their current major league roster currently has - it's that the pipeline of young talent capable of being quality big leaguers has run dry due to poor drafts, questionable development, and bad luck. The trades to get postseason berths with major league pitching gutted the top end of the farm system that had no depth to begin with.

 

The move the Brewers need to make is trade veterans that can get them something projectable in return or at a minimum provide salary relief - then bite the bullet for 2014 and go young with their bevy of AAAA players so some of the prospects that have potential to be be good big leaguers have room to keep developing in AA/AAA without burning service time. The Brewers' organization has the stench of having too many marginal veterans hanging around too long, not really contending but taking up payroll and 40-man roster space that a small market team can't have. It's the look of a team whose window closed a season ago but didn't want to admit it and instead went into this season on the fence between contention and rebuilding...not a good place to be. Their American League mirror image? The White Sox.

[LouisEly]

Other than Jake O and Escobar there's no one he traded that I want back. He hasn't stripped the organization he's just done an incredibly poor job drafting the last 4-5 years

Keep in mind that Melvin has nothing to do with the draft other than be consulted if a potential draft pick demands well above slot value. The actual choosing of talent is done by the amateur scouting department (Seid et. al.)

[danzig6767]

Other than Jake O and Escobar there's no one he traded that I want back. He hasn't stripped the organization he's just done an incredibly poor job drafting the last 4-5 years

Keep in mind that Melvin has nothing to do with the draft other than be consulted if a potential draft pick demands well above slot value. The actual choosing of talent is done by the amateur scouting department (Seid et. al.)

 

Melvin gave the job to Seid though.

 

In sports like the NFL and NBA, the GM is the guy who drafts all of the players, mainly because the NBA draft is only two rounds and the NFL draft seven rounds.

 

The MLB draft though is roughly 50 rounds, so it's not really feasible for a baseball GM to go around scouting such a vast amount of players to make the picks himself. Thus, given how important the draft is, especially to small market teams, who exactly the GM hires to run those drafts is arguably one of if not the most important decision a GM in a market like Milwaukee can make.

 

So while it is true that it was first Jack Z and now Seid who have struggled so mightily at drafting pitching, not Melvin, Doug was the guy who promoted Seid after Zduriencik left and if the farm system doesn't soon start showing better promise, IMO Melvin shares in the blame because ultimately he hired Seid to run the draft.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Should the Brewers fire anybody it needs to be a top to bottom approach. I actually believe this organization needs a complete overhaul. I'm not really talking players, but upper management, front office, GM, scouting director, more or different scouts.

 

A new GM would signal Mark A agrees with me. I want a new GM that knows the flaws of the Brewers system (there's clearly big ones involving pitching), and who knows or could persuade a really good scouting director to work for the Brewers, an established one. I don't want a promotion of some new guy aka Bruce Seid.

[RockCoCougars]

You know that it's been a rough year when we are in late June and Cody Ransom and Chris Dickerson have one fewer home run than Braun/Ramirez/Hart combined..... in less than half the plate appearances.

[RobertR]

I do think there's some overreaction going on in this thread. Considering all that's gone wrong there's enough core talent that a league average first baseman could have pushed the team considerably closer to 0.500. A core of Braun, Segura, Lucroy, and perhaps Gomez is a leg up on a lot of franchises. Surround that core with averageness and you can contend.

[BrewCrewForever]

I do think there's some overreaction going on in this thread. Considering all that's gone wrong there's enough core talent that a league average first baseman could have pushed the team considerably closer to 0.500. A core of Braun, Segura, Lucroy, and perhaps Gomez is a leg up on a lot of franchises. Surround that core with averageness and you can contend.

 

That is exactly how I feel. Those four guys are a real nice core to build around. Get some improved starting pitching and decent 1B and things could be much better. Hopefully making some trades at the deadline this season and help those areas.

[RobertR]

In all seriousness I wonder how this season stacks up for historical awfulness from first base.

[narwhalattack]

I really do hope that the FO doesn't go for a costly veteran this off season in an effort to compete. This team needs long term solutions, not signing expensive veterans, losing draft picks in the process, and desperately hope that things come together.

[gregmag]

In all seriousness I wonder how this season stacks up for historical awfulness from first base.

I've been wondering about this as well. I can't ever remember seeing 1b production this bad. Maybe it will stabilize over the remainder of the season; we're only halfway in. But I can't imagine many teams have gotten a sub-.600 OPS from 1b.

 

Just for the heck of it -- this isn't 1b totals, just a quick look at primary regulars on a few horrible teams (105 or more losses, except for the Brewers / Pilots):

 

1978 Mariners: Dan Meyer, .591 OPS

1991 Indians: Brook Jacoby, .622 OPS

 

1904 Senators: Jake Stahl, .690 OPS

1962 Mets: Marv Throneberry, .732 OPS

1964 Athletics: Jim Gentile, .837 OPS

1969 Expos: Bob Bailey, .756 OPS

1976 Expos: Mike Jorgensen, .693 OPS

1977 Blue Jays: Doug Ault, .692 OPS

1979 Athletics: Dave Revering, .817 OPS

1988 Orioles: Eddie Murray, .836 OPS

1996 Tigers: Tony Clark, .802 OPS

1998 Marlins: Derrek Lee, .732 OPS

2002 Rays: Steve Cox, .727 OPS

2004 Diamondbacks: Shea Hillenbrand, .812 OPS

2005 Royals: Matt Stairs, .818 OPS

2011 Astros: Brett wallace, .703 OPS

2012 Astros: Carlos Lee, .747 OPS / Brett Wallace, .746 OPS

 

2002 Brewers: Richie Sexson, .867 OPS (Is it just me, or is it hard to believe this franchise has only lost 100 games once?)

1969 Pilots: Don Mincher, .821 OPS (good for a 132 OPS+ in that offensive climate)

 

I've probably forgotten some team that weakens my point. The point is pretty half-baked anyway, but I think it's fair to say that almost all of history's worst teams have done better than the 2013 Brewers at scrounging up 1b talent.

[RightFieldCoder]

All of the worst teams have at least one or two good players. Chances are your best player is at first. Our's weren't. What were the C, CF, and SS OPS for those teams. I bet we smoke a lot of them in those areas.

[trwi7]

Anthony Witrado actually providing some information.

 

Anthony Witrado‏@WitradoSN15m

Brewers GM Doug Melvin on Yovani Gallardo: "The (trade) package from another team has to be something that will wow me."

 

Anthony Witrado‏@WitradoSN14m

More Melvin: "It's not a slam dunk that I'm going to trade Yovani or Kyle Lohse, but you never know. A lot have to consider (about future)."

 

Anthony Witrado‏@WitradoSN13m

Yovani Gallardo is under contract for 2014 with a reasonable club option for '15 ($13 mil). Brewers weighing if they can contend next season

[jjfanec]

I am torn on the thoughts of the franchise. Our offense is really good. 1-8 this is probably the deepest lineup I can remember if healthy. Aoki, Segura, Braun, Ramirez, Hart, Gomez, and Lucroy is a great lineup. Yet the pitching is so bad and the minor leagues dont have a ton of pitching talent ready to make an impact that there is no way for me to be excited or even happy with the state of the franchise. Maybe Peralta, Hellweg and Nelson pan out and then Jungmann, Burgos, and others can fill in some spots but I just dont have a ton of hope right now.

 

On offense I think you can build around Braun, Gomez, Segura, and Lucroy. I would seriously look to trade Aoki, Ramirez, Weeks (if he stays hot and someone is willing to buy at a higher price), and I would trade Hart this offseason. I think Schafer and K. Davis could man RF. 1B you would hope Helton or Morris could be the guy. 3B and 2B are bigger issues. I guess Scooter but I dont see him as a long term answer

 

Pitching I would hope trades could next some young arms. I would look to deal Lohse (who will have more value than some think) and Yo. I love Gallardo but this team isnt contending the next two years. Starting pitching at the deadline brings back more than it should so I would deal them if possible. Axford and KRod would be the next to go.