General thoughts on the franchise.

[brewcrewdue80]

So Option years matter for prospects for legitimate prospects who keep getting hurt and lose development time

 

At 1b this would fit with Gamel and Green no?

 

Could it be they aren't moving Morris up to save his options because they wont have options with Gamel and Green next season?

[TheCrew07]

Again, with the way rules have changed we have a prospect from the time we acquire for another 7 years before he has to permanently be on a MLB roster. Gamel and Green have some positional flexibility, though I don't see Green as any long-term possibility at 1B, however both Gamel and Green can play elsewhere or have a bench role, Morris doesn't fit that same mold.

 

Either he's an everyday 1B or he doesn't have a role, he's already 24, Hart is gone after next season. Do people not expect to give him a shot until he's 28 years old? I'd expect Gamel and Morris to battle it out for the 1B job next year, between 1 of those 2 guys we should find a decent productive option at 1B.

 

I think AAA has limited value for hitters, once hitters adjust to the finesse/control pitchers there's very little for them to learn there. I do find it irritating that so many players tank that second time through AAA, but I don't think it's all that difficult to understand how the letdown of not making the opening day roster or getting demoted back to AAA will affect a player. AAA is much more of a stepping stone for pitchers, but the point here is that given the injuries the Brewers had already experienced with Hart/Gamel/Green and the fact that they knew Hart's rehab schedule, there's no good reason for going with crappy established veterans (who also had to be added to the 40 man) over a player who might be a valuable part of our future for this long. If Morris would lose the job to Gamel next year I don't see him stashed in AAA for 3 years waiting for another injury, the organization has too many other needs, in that case he should part of a package looking to acquire a different position of need.

 

If Morris doesn't establish him in MLB by age 28 there's very little chance he ever will, option years are not and should not be primary concern here. The focus should be when all of your current options suck then you look to your future, going to acquire another worthless stop gap for the present should not be the default plan.

 

Clearly there's been very little tangible value over the short term with the veterans and any possible long-term value has been negated as well.

[LouisEly]

What does he need option years for?

 

Regardless if a guy doesn't develop in 6-7 years chances are he's not going to develop.

He is only three years removed from being drafted. His first major league game was two days less than three years ago exactly (6/17/10). He made AAA in less than three years. The power is there... by your reasoning of six years, doesn't he deserve three more years to develop his OBP skills?

[TheCrew07]

What does he need option years for?

 

Regardless if a guy doesn't develop in 6-7 years chances are he's not going to develop.

He is only three years removed from being drafted. His first major league game was two days less than three years ago exactly (6/17/10). He made AAA in less than three years. The power is there... by your reasoning of six years, doesn't he deserve three more years to develop his OBP skills?

 

Deserve? You think Morris would want to spend 4 straight years in AAA? Again this whole option years thing is grasping at straws. He was a college hitter, he started his first full year in A ball, it's not like he was a high school draftee who worked up every level one year at time: AZL > PL > MWL > FSL > SL > PCL so he's running out of option years. He's already in AAA and hasn't had to be protected from the rule 5 draft by being added to the 40 man.

 

He's being added to the 40 man either way this winter. When was the last time we ever graduated a fully developed prospect to MLB? How many teams can ever do that with a prospect? Who gets to decide when someone has nothing left to learn and is ready? Honestly I think baseball is a game that's always changing, if a hitter plugs one hole in their game pitchers are going to work to find another and the cycle will repeat itself. It's a game of constant adjustment, and I think some posters have completely unrealistic expectations regarding "ready for MLB". Certainly I would have liked some more refined play defensively but the organization has done a better job stressing that, both Gennett and Morris have come a long way from their initial MiLB scouting reports. If a hitter has solved the level and playing sound defense, there's very little reason not present him with the next challenge.

 

I have no idea why Morris starts slow, but a slow start has nothing to do with being "ready". The question is whether or not his development would have been set back spending a couple of months in MLB this year. I don't think there's a definitive answer to that question, I do however think that players getting meaningful experience while not having to worry about being productive can have positive impact when they are truly needed, as either Morris or Gamel will be next year.

 

Let's call this 1B situation what it is... Yuni had the best 10 days of his life (I honestly didn't think he even had 3 day stretch like that in him) right when it was looking like the organization would have to do so something at the position. The FO thought they caught lightening in a bottle so they decided to ride out the situation with him getting regular playing time even after Ramirez returned. In the limited games I've watched he's a horrible 1B, he actually looks like he's afraid of the short hop throws. So when he regressed at the plate as expected and basically forced a move because he was providing zero value anywhere Melvin went out and added another stop gap to the MLB roster even after Morris heated up at the plate.

 

While I'd agree that Morris still has parts of his game to work on I'm not convinced that he would have learned quicker in AAA than MLB or that he would have had his development set back if he had started slowly in MLB. On the contrary, I would expect most young hitters to start slow and pickup steam as they go. Off the top of my head Braun is the only Brewer hitting prospect whom I recall raking from day 1. Originally we were talking about a 6-8 week chance to get acclimated to MLB before being sent back down to AAA, now it's looking like it would have been 12 week opportunity. Regardless I think the Brewers missed a reasonable opportunity to get Morris' feet which should have paid dividends in 2014 and wouldn't have affected his service time, we'd still hold Hunter's rights through his age 31 season.

[TURBO]

TheCrew07 = MVP (Most Valuable Poster)

 

That was a great read, and completely agree with you 100%. The state of our 1B position this season, and entering the season with no real option at 1B just baffles me as to why Morris is still not on the big club.

 

I have such a hard time with the way this team is ran, I think it is time for a change,

[Thurston Fluff]

I just looked up Yuni's minor league numbers from his final (almost) full season in the minors. He was 23 at the time and had an OBP of .311 and an OPS of .735. Morris by comparison has a .325 OBP and a .815 OPS this season at age 25. Given Morris in only 210 ab's into his first AAA season I am not so sure he would represent an upgrade to Yuni at this point. Yuni isn't good but to assume someone who's history of success in the minors is about one year of decent play and fairly mediocre beyond that I don't see the argument that he is likely to do better. I do see however the argument to be made that rushing Morris along too quickly could hamper his overall development. So why bring him up for what is likely to be little if any upgrade while also possibly harming his development. As it is his minor league numbers look very pedestrian this season why not let him upgrade one level at a time to get the very most out of him when the time comes?

[brewcrewdue80]

Thurston, I don't get how he's harming his development, if he's given the PAs. Meaning everyday 1b. Maybe with Francisco you are able to sit him down vs. Leftys but still that's not going to be enough games sitting where he's stunting his learning.

 

I personally think it is better to see the player get his feet wet if the need arises to use them. Then, when sent back down, he can focus and working on anything that was exploited in his time up. Without the pressure to perform for games that matter. At least I'd tell individual players, when you're working on fixing problems to better your game, don't worry what effect it has on our AAA team's games.

 

I still just don't get protecting service time on players that aren't projected to be pretty much Long Term Everyday Starting Players for their Position.

Moves are made all the time, trades, the draft, development. Players drafted this year could reach the team in under 6years at their position. So if Morris or Gennett aren't guys that you see as everyday starters for over 6years then why wait to use them? Especially now, beyond the service clock time where the remainder of games this season won't count as season 1. You have them for 6 more seasons no matter if you play them now or to start next season.

It's a lost season on both clubs, AAA and ML record-wise. So, give them experience!

[Thurston Fluff]

I think learning at the level you are capable of dealing with is far better than getting totally dominated every day. Gradually increasing levels of difficulty helps develop someone better than sink of swim IMHO.

 

No sooner do I post this I read this. http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/the-seasoning-process-b9933799z1-211706001.html

 

"He needs to play more at Triple-A," said Brewers general manager Doug Melvin. "He had one streak when he was really hot but it's just better to let him play there and get more consistency."

 

One can debate if it is right or not but it is part of a reasoned out strategy on player development. It's hard to say he is clueless.

[LouisEly]

Thurston, I don't get how he's harming his development, if he's given the PAs. Meaning everyday 1b.

This is what TheCrew missed from my post. My second point was that Morris is not going to get the PAs once Hart comes back, so he will either rot on the bench (hurt his development) or be sent down and burn an option year unnecessarily.

[Thurston Fluff]

I don't think the options years matter. This is why you have them. I think they don't believe Morris is ready. One thing we sometimes lose in debates about drafting and amateur scouting is the minor league scouting. That is where the Brewers seem to do alright. They knew Segura was a legit shortstop when others felt he wasn't. They found the likes of Narveson, Axford and Estrada. They probably know when someone is ready as well as any. The way I see it options or service time aren't the issue. Dude just isn't ready yet.

[logan82]

Thurston, I don't get how he's harming his development, if he's given the PAs. Meaning everyday 1b.

This is what TheCrew missed from my post. My second point was that Morris is not going to get the PAs once Hart comes back, so he will either rot on the bench (hurt his development) or be sent down and burn an option year unnecessarily.

As was pointed out be several people now, the guy is in AAA, his option years do not matter at this point. If he is in AAA in 2015 we should have let him loose or have him playing full time.

[trwi7]

Thurston, I don't get how he's harming his development, if he's given the PAs. Meaning everyday 1b.

This is what TheCrew missed from my post. My second point was that Morris is not going to get the PAs once Hart comes back, so he will either rot on the bench (hurt his development) or be sent down and burn an option year unnecessarily.

 

If Morris isn't in the majors full time by the time he's 27, does it really matter if he's burned the option years?

[PrinceFielderx1]

Considering how many of the Brewers regular starters over the last 5-6 years have needed to be sent down for development or to work their issues out in the minors option years are vital. The Brewers in my opinion are terrible with how they develop their prospects when it comes to fixing things at the Major league level and even with how they draft, because they can't really fix defensive or offensive issues very well in the Major or Minors. Examples are Weeks, Hardy, Hall, I believe Corey Hart was sent down as well. Weeks has worked hard on defense, but it's still not good. Perhaps he's just not a good natural defender, so it's hard to blame the organization. He was drafted for his bat...

 

Option years are vital when talking the Brewers organization.

[TooLiveBrew]

I just looked up Yuni's minor league numbers from his final (almost) full season in the minors. He was 23 at the time and had an OBP of .311 and an OPS of .735. Morris by comparison has a .325 OBP and a .815 OPS this season at age 25. Given Morris in only 210 ab's into his first AAA season I am not so sure he would represent an upgrade to Yuni at this point. Yuni isn't good but to assume someone who's history of success in the minors is about one year of decent play and fairly mediocre beyond that I don't see the argument that he is likely to do better.

One decent year for Morris? One historically good year (relative to Southern League history) is a more accurate way to describe it. And you seem to be dismissing nearly a 100-point difference in OPS (Morris is in his age-24 season, fwiw, not 25) as not too big a deal... not to mention that Yuni played with the Tacoma Rainiers & played more of his games in the hitter's paradise that is the group of west-coast PCL parks. Hunter Morris is a significantly more talented hitter at this point than Betancourt, who is routinely one of the worst offensive players in MLB.

[SoupTown]

Strange how it takes a PHD-like argument to convince some (and still not our management) what was the most obvious, common sense baseball organizational decision of 2013. What a waste of a year. And even when management could have derived a positive, benefit from 1st base, they go down the lose-lose path. How sad.

[paul253]

Forget about Morris for a minute. Why not give Sean Halton a shot?

[Invader3K]

Forget about Morris for a minute. Why not give Sean Halton a shot?

 

Halton seems like one of those guys that screams "AAAA" to me.

[ninja33]

Yea he does...but if the other option is a guy like yuni who screams "DFA", which would you prefer?

[Thurston Fluff]

One decent year for Morris? One historically good year (relative to Southern League history) is a more accurate way to describe it. And you seem to be dismissing nearly a 100-point difference in OPS (Morris is in his age-24 season, fwiw, not 25) as not too big a deal... not to mention that Yuni played with the Tacoma Rainiers & played more of his games in the hitter's paradise that is the group of west-coast PCL parks. Hunter Morris is a significantly more talented hitter at this point than Betancourt, who is routinely one of the worst offensive players in MLB.

 

Yes he did have a monster year in AA. He is following it up with a very pedestrian one in AAA. He is starting to get his grove and may very well end up having a good year there. That is my hope. But that should show you the value of step by step development. AS far as the difference in OPS you are correct. But I think you would agree his OPS in AAA doesn't scream ready for the majors. I probably shouldn't have posted the OPS. I was trying to be fair but really I think the OBP is the biggest warning sign. Seeing someone struggle to get on base in AAA is a very bad sign for what they can do in the majors IMHO. I posted Yuni's minor league numbers to show how bad someone who can't get on base can be. Gomez is probably also someone we can point to who was hurt by coming up to early in his career. I don't see the value of bringing up someone who isn't ready. Either for their development or for the good of the team for that season. If you set their development back a year or two while also starting their arby clock you end up with very few cheap years of useful production. I just don't see how that is beneficial in any way.

Strange how it takes a PHD-like argument to convince some (and still not our management) what was the most obvious, common sense baseball organizational decision of 2013. What a waste of a year. And even when management could have derived a positive, benefit from 1st base, they go down the lose-lose path. How sad.

 

I think you are giving your position too much credit while discounting the value of the other side. There is little to no value to bringing someone up you feel can't handle that level. All it does is take away a year of more productive play, possibly hamper his development while retuning little or nothing of value now. It is far from a no brainer to think there is a benefit to having players play at a level they cannot handle. Players might be very good for their stage of development but that is not the same as being developed and ready to go. Setting Morris' development back even half a season is not worth the possible extra HR and 10 points of OBP. So perhaps the choice wasn't to waste this season and hamper development. It might be waste this season or hamper his development. At this point I would rather see what Francisco can do than bring up Morris if he isn't ready.

[gregmag]

I just looked up Yuni's minor league numbers from his final (almost) full season in the minors. He was 23 at the time and had an OBP of .311 and an OPS of .735. Morris by comparison has a .325 OBP and a .815 OPS this season at age 25. Given Morris in only 210 ab's into his first AAA season I am not so sure he would represent an upgrade to Yuni at this point. Yuni isn't good but to assume someone who's history of success in the minors is about one year of decent play and fairly mediocre beyond that I don't see the argument that he is likely to do better. I do see however the argument to be made that rushing Morris along too quickly could hamper his overall development. So why bring him up for what is likely to be little if any upgrade while also possibly harming his development. As it is his minor league numbers look very pedestrian this season why not let him upgrade one level at a time to get the very most out of him when the time comes?

Your argument about not rushing Morris is reasonable (though I don't think it's as obviously right as you assert), but I think your Yuni-Morris comparison is very strange. Yuni is now an old player in decline. Morris is still at an age where substantial improvement is possible. Moreover, Yuni has been absolutely horrible for a month and a half. It seems highly unlikely to me that Morris wouldn't bring appreciably more production than Yuni right now.

[Thurston Fluff]

but I think your Yuni-Morris comparison is very strange. Yuni is now an old player in decline. Morris is still at an age where substantial improvement is possible. Moreover, Yuni has been absolutely horrible for a month and a half. It seems highly unlikely to me that Morris wouldn't bring appreciably more production than Yuni right now.

 

Kind of a minor point but I don't think Yuni is in any sort of decline. He's doing what he always did. Not likely to give you anything more might be better for now.

 

To the main arguments. I have two. The first is potential has nothing to do with production now. Morris is at an age where substantial improvement is possible. But that is contingent on how he is brought along to some extent. Whatever the potential is doesn't have anything to do with how he will perform now. To risk slowing his development for minimal or no improvement seems counterproductive.

Possibly the more important factor is I don't think it is between Yuni and Morris. With Ramirez at third the regular AB's for Francisco is at first. Which happens to be the only place Morris would play. So the three alternatives are: See what Francisco can do while letting Morris get all the AB's at AAA, let Morris get half the AB's with Francisco or have Morris take most of the AB's and not even see what we have in Francisco? Given I don't think Morris has shown he is ready I'd take the first option. For the good of both now and our future.

[SoupTown]

Great comments by RRR yesterday re our First Base situation.... the .511 OPS, lowest in the majors. A couple of (paraphrase) point ruined my day

 

1) there was NOTHING else we could have done to address the situation; all we did was correct and we were damaged by bad luck, mainly

2) the .511 OPS at First Base really does not matter, because our over production at Short and Center Field make up for it.

 

Yes, RRR and managment. You did the best to your full extent re point 1). And yes, of course if Segura and Gomez play great, it means other players playing bad (to their career norms) is OK. There is no need to try to improve.

[joepepsi]

Forget about Morris for a minute. Why not give Sean Halton a shot?

 

Halton seems like one of those guys that screams "AAAA" to me.

 

Much like Juan Francisco.

[brewmann04]

Morris needs to play a full year at 3a no reason to call him up at this point.

[TooLiveBrew]

Morris needs to play a full year at 3a no reason to call him up at this point.

There's not inherently any truth to this statement. Segura didn't "need" to play at AAA at all, and at the time of his acquisition wasn't really considered a better bat than Morris.