General thoughts on the franchise.

[RobertR]

Sure, it makes sense to trade him when you don't expect to be competitive during the length of his contract. I don't know that we're at the stage where we're writing off the next couple of years yet. And, if so, Braun and Aoki probably need to be in the discussion before Gomez.

 

Either way, keep him or trade him, I think it's clear that Gomez has more trade value now than he did in the offseason. And you want to trade a player when his perceived value is highest. In that sense, I think it's clear that keeping Gomez around was the right move. You can get more if you trade him now with several years locked in at a reasonable rate than you could previous when he could just bolt to free agency. If it was a gamble, I'd argue that it was a gamble that worked.

 

I'm frustrated with a lot of the franchise and Melvin's moves and non-moves too. But it doesn't mean that every move Melvin made needs a lot of scrutiny. Gomez and Segura are two bright spots in an otherwise dismal year, for instance.

[Ennder]

This is one big long list of 'facts' mostly backed up by second guessing after the fact and cherry picking the bad parts of things. Weeks at $10M seems like a bad deal but if he had not hurt his ankle and kept playing at 2010/2011 levels it would have been a steal. A pitcher that starts their career like Gallardo generally is considered a future ace, he just hasn't grown the way most young pitchers do, he has stagnated. More than anything else you are complaining about 1 month of baseball here.

 

We are far from a perfect franchise but we are nowhere near as bad as people want to make it out to be either.

[RobertR]

The franchise's inability to develop young pitching is the biggest blemish against the Melvin regime (along with all the draft picks wasted on pitchers). Even then, it's much too early to write off Peralta and some of the others.

 

Going in to the season, there was every reason to expect that the Brewers would have one of the best offenses in baseball. Heck, if you told me in the winter what Gomez and Segura were doing, I'd think that the Brewers would be far and away the best offense in the NL. Melvin fixed the bullpen. Yeah, we all knew starting pitching could be a potential downfall, but certainly there was also upside to Gallardo, Estrada, and Peralta. There are plenty of franchises that had less reason for optimism in 2013 than the Brewers. We don't have to rewrite history here.

 

Injuries certainly didn't help either. Neither did a medical staff that badly misjudged the recovery time for Hart. A real first baseman would probably be worth 3 or 4 wins, maybe more, at this point considering the Betancourt/Gonzalez platoon was worth something like -2.7 WAR. That alone pushes the season from disaster into Washington Nationals disappointment territory.

[Thurston Fluff]

When you look at the players instead how the team is performing right now we are set at virtually all positions for the next couple seasons. If we had one or two starters added to the mix this would be a very good team. In other words we are one or two players away from being right where we want to be. That hardly seems like the time for a total rebuild.

[narwhalattack]

When you look at the players instead how the team is performing right now we are set at virtually all positions for the next couple seasons. If we had one or two starters added to the mix this would be a very good team. In other words we are one or two players away from being right where we want to be. That hardly seems like the time for a total rebuild.

 

That's probably what the FO was thinking when they signed Lohse, but look how things turned out. Yes, you can have talented players on a team but in the game of baseball lots and lots of things could go wrong.

 

I don't think that being perpetual buyers would be sustainable especially for a mid-market team like the Brewers. At some point the bubble's going to burst and it is very possible that this team could go into chronic Astros-mode. At this point the Brewers should start focusing on looking ahead to the future and replenish the farm system than rather hoping that they're one or two major league guys from competing.

[paul253]

We are far from a perfect franchise but we are nowhere near as bad as people want to make it out to be either.

 

I disagree. I am looking less at individual moves and more so the trends under Melvin. To me the four most troubling trends are:

 

1) The complete inability to draft quality pitchers

2) The over-reliance on certain guys which leads to multiple long term deals

3) And as a result of #2 the fact the young players rarely get a chance to prove themselves

4) Melvin's unwillingness to move guys when their value is at it's peak. I'm not saying trade everyone when their value goes up but you don't need to offer every single player a long term deal after one or two good seasons.

[Thurston Fluff]

That's probably what the FO was thinking when they signed Lohse, but look how things turned out. Yes, you can have talented players on a team but in the game of baseball lots and lots of things could go wrong.

 

I don't think you build a team with fear of what could go wrong. There is always something that could go wrong with any strategy. Prospects don't pan out when you trade your best player for them as often as free agents end up busts. As far as the Lohse thing goes maybe we should let more than 2 months of the three year deal play out before looking at how things turned out.

 

I don't think that being perpetual buyers would be sustainable especially for a mid-market team like the Brewers. At some point the bubble's going to burst and it is very possible that this team could go into chronic Astros-mode. At this point the Brewers should start focusing on looking ahead to the future and replenish the farm system than rather hoping that they're one or two major league guys from competing.

 

I am not suggesting being perpetual buyers forever. I am saying when we have a lot of good players under contract for at least another couple seasons why is this the time to tear it all down? Someday we very well could be the Astros. The Astos got here after some division titles, even more playoff appearances and their first and only World Series appearance. They got that by not giving up when the goal was in reach. Like the season they were in last place and around 10 or so games below .500 turned into that World Series appearance.

4) Melvin's unwillingness to move guys when their value is at it's peak. I'm not saying trade everyone when their value goes up but you don't need to offer every single player a long term deal after one or two good seasons.

 

It isn't like they just open up the money truck and give every player with a year of success whatever they want. They target a player and offer what is a lower than market offer if they continue to produce. That player then decides if he wants the security or the shot at a bigger payday. While there is a risk to that type of strategy there is also a reward. Would we have YoGa at $8,000,000 this season if he went through year to year arbitration? That isn't even counting his pending free agency if he wasn't signed long term early in his career.

[paul253]

It isn't like they just open up the money truck and give every player with a year of success whatever they want. They target a player and offer what is a lower than market offer if they continue to produce.

IF they continue to produce. That's been the problem with Melvin. He seems to be offering a lot of multi-year deals to players who don't continue to produce. Can you imagine how far back the franchise would have been set had Casey McGehee accepted the long term offer? Or John Axford? Rickie Weeks contract is looking like a killer. Corey Hart's trade value in the final year of his contract is next to nothing. And who knows, even Gallardo is struggling mightily this year with 2 more years on his deal.

 

In his defense the Braun deal looks solid. But Braun is a once in a generation type player and they was little risk in that one. And the Lucroy deal seems ok. The key will be what to do with Lucroy when his current contract is up. The Gomez deal is too early to judge.

[Thurston Fluff]

But they didn't sign McGehee to a long term deal because he didn't think their offer was good enough. How do you know the risk factor unless you also include what the Brewers were willing to pay him and for how long. If you know how much the Brewers offered in length and money then maybe I could answer how much it could have hurt them. Same with Axford. Considering Ax seems to be putting together a decent season after a rough start perhaps the long term deal wouldn't have hurt at all. Maybe even help in the long term. I'd also say the YoGa deal was a win for the club. Even if his next couple season's are average. As far as Harts trade value I don't think it is next to nothing yet. If he comes back and is the same Hart we always see he will be a decent rental for someone. His inability to stay healthy over the course of a contract will not be a hindrance to a team looking for a short term fix.

[adambr2]

We probably aren't as bad of a franchise as it feels like, but it's amplified by the fact that the Cardinals unfortunately are just ridiculously head and shoulders ahead of us as an organization. It's not a good time to be in the NL Central.

[TURBO]

We probably aren't as bad of a franchise as it feels like, but it's amplified by the fact that the Cardinals unfortunately are just ridiculously head and shoulders ahead of us as an organization. It's not a good time to be in the NL Central.

 

and don't forget the Reds...

 

[SoupTown]

Should we then not just go to the Cards, and find their top 10 people in the organization and offer them all 200k pay rises. So you have spent 2 mill to completely transform your organization.

[vegasbrewcrew1993]

Should we then not just go to the Cards, and find their top 10 people in the organization and offer them all 200k pay rises. So you have spent 2 mill to completely transform your organization.

 

lol not a bad idea....

[LouisEly]

It isn't like they just open up the money truck and give every player with a year of success whatever they want. They target a player and offer what is a lower than market offer if they continue to produce. That player then decides if he wants the security or the shot at a bigger payday. While there is a risk to that type of strategy there is also a reward.

You hit the nail on the head; there is risk both ways. When you have a limited payroll you have to take some risks that guys without a long track record of success will continue to produce so you can have them under contract for a few years for less than market value. If you wait until they produce for a few years to see if their production is a mirage, if they continue to produce then they price themselves out of your range because a bigger revenue team will offer them more money (Fielder, Sabathia, etc.). If you keep trading them for prospects, then you run the risk that 1) the prospects won't pan out (not all do) or get injured (Hudson, who was supposedly offered for Fielder, re-tore his elbow ligament in his rehab start the other day and has to have surgery again; meanwhile the Brewers still have Coulter and Haniger), or B) casual fans become apathetic thinking that there is no commitment to winning or get turned off when the team keeps trading their favorite player after they spend $100 buying that player's replica jersey. We saw the surge in ticket sales when the Brewers signed Lohse; it wasn't because casual fans want to see Lohse, it is because they were sitting on the fence wondering if the Brewers would make an effort to go for the playoffs this year before purchasing season ticket packages.

 

Bottom line is that there is much more risk involved in running a limited payroll team. And before we gush about the Cardinals, remember that they have 31 year old Wainwright committed to almost $100M over the next 5 years, 33 year old Holliday committed to $51M over the next 3 years, 30 year old Molina committed to $58M over the next four years, and signed Craig to a $30M extension with less than 1000 career plate appearances under his belt. They also have $17.5M tied up on the 60-day DL between 38-year-old Carpenter and 35-year-old Furcal. They take risks with contracts too.

[Thurston Fluff]

Should we then not just go to the Cards, and find their top 10 people in the organization and offer them all 200k pay rises. So you have spent 2 mill to completely transform your organization.

 

Except the Cards have more money to offer them than we do.

[3and2Fastball]

General Thought on the Franchise:

 

Despite a little improvement lately we are still in line for the #4 overall draft pick in the 2014 draft

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/standings

[monty57]

Regarding all the talk about extending people, my general rule would be that if the player has enough question marks that you don't offer the extension prior to arby, then he has enough question marks that you shouldn't offer him an extension when he's in year 2 or 3 of arby. By that time, you're not getting a significant discount to market price, and there is a good chance that the problems which kept you from signing the guy early will re-emerge.

 

These type of extensions and free agent signings are fine if you have a payroll capable of sustaining a team full of "market value" contracts. Unfortunately, teams like the Brewers need to have a significant portion of their team playing on less-than-market-value contracts (pre-arby and arby). Basically, we need to try to get as much young talent as possible, extend the top (core) ones while they are in their pre-arby years, and let the rest play out their contracts, hopefully being able to flip many of them for more young talent when they are nearing the end of their "team control."

[monkeyman343434]

#Brewers GM Doug Melvin said on his WTMJ Radio show this morning that Corey Hart might not be back until after all-star break.

 

From Tom H on Twitter.

 

Way to go out and lose this years first round pick by signing Lohse, then completely abandon first base for the year. Milwaukee first basemen are hitting .183/.222/.280 on the year. That's freaking terrible, pitchers can hit better than that.

[Thurston Fluff]

Hart is not gone for the year so how is your argument that they completely abandoned first base for the year even remotely true? They didn't even know it would be half a season without Hart. They thought he would be gone until May. The injury is taking longer to heal than they thought. That happens. What that has to do with Lohse is beyond me. He was signed for three years. He is not a short term rental. Even if he was were they supposed to give up on the season before it started because Hart might be gone longer than expected? If you can't find a reasonable replacement at one spot why not strengthen another spot to compensate? It's not any different than having Greinke pitching compensating for having Yuni at short.

[Baldkin]

#Brewers GM Doug Melvin said on his WTMJ Radio show this morning that Corey Hart might not be back until after all-star break.

 

From Tom H on Twitter.

 

Way to go out and lose this years first round pick by signing Lohse, then completely abandon first base for the year. Milwaukee first basemen are hitting .183/.222/.280 on the year. That's freaking terrible, pitchers can hit better than that.

 

You do realize they are on option #8 at first base now, right?

 

Hart, Gamel, Green, Gonzalez, Yuni, Maldanado, Lalli, Francisco.

 

I'm sorry, I cannot fault the GM for everyone who could possibly play 1B in the majors who had experience there, either getting hurt or completely being unable to hit.

[TheCrew07]

You do realize they are on option #8 at first base now, right?

 

Hart, Gamel, Green, Gonzalez, Yuni, Maldanado, Lalli, Francisco.

 

I'm sorry, I cannot fault the GM for everyone who could possibly play 1B in the majors who had experience there, either getting hurt or completely being unable to hit.

 

Sure, except that they played 2 SS and 2 C there while Halton and Morris were in AAA...

 

With a 1 month stop gap sure, play whomever you want, but as this is situation is apparently going to last through to the all-star break why not go with younger/cheaper options to get them some MLB experience until Hart returns? They've been privy to Hart's rehab progress the entire time, it's not like us from the general fan base who get updates every 2-3 weeks.

 

I know people will point to AAA production but does it really matter if they wouldn't have hit given what the plethora of players who've been at 1B have done? Let one of them get their feet wet (preferably Morris) and then send him down when Hart is finally ready to come back. At least we'd have been plugging the hole with part of future instead of the bunch of has beens and never was that will play there through the first 3 months of season.

 

As for any 40 man arguments... well why is Lalli, Gonzo, or Yuni more deserving of a roster spot than Morris? The "depth" on the 40 man is basically crap, what does it matter if we part with any one of those guys?

[SoupTown]

I guess if there are 30,000 people that will show up every game to watch backup shortstops and catchers play 1st basd to the tune of .402 OPS.... well, who cares. .402 OPS. I am pretty sure you could dig up (from their grave) a number of HOF players and they would do better than .402 OPS. We are not talking OBP. We are not talking SLUGGING. We are talking obp PLUS slugging.

 

re Hart not coming back mid April... well, only Corey tried to con re that. Any person with a brain would have listened to medical advice. For Doug to say 'oh, surprise on me...' I will say back: 'Dougie, do you understand that a .402 OPS for the most offensive position on the diamond is bad; Dougie, it is really, really bad; Dougie if you dig up a HOF corpse, I am pretty sure it will beat that .402'

 

This is our management. Amazing, hey!

[LouisEly]

I know people will point to AAA production but does it really matter if they wouldn't have hit given what the plethora of players who've been at 1B have done? Let one of them get their feet wet (preferably Morris) and then send him down when Hart is finally ready to come back. At least we'd have been plugging the hole with part of future instead of the bunch of has beens and never was that will play there through the first 3 months of season.

 

As for any 40 man arguments... well why is Lalli, Gonzo, or Yuni more deserving of a roster spot than Morris? The "depth" on the 40 man is basically crap, what does it matter if we part with any one of those guys?

The argument could be made that with such a poor season and with such poor starting pitching, why put a guy on the 40-man and burn service time when you don't have to? Gennett is different in that he was already on the 40-man and had already burned an option year when he didn't make the club out of spring training; they weren't losing anything by calling him up. Morris doesn't have to be put on the 40-man until after the season is over, and he has things to work on (only one season with an OBP >.330). If Hart was going to be out all season then it might make sense, but when Hart comes back you have a situation where you have to sit one or the other and you either lose any trade value for Hart by sitting him, you let Morris rot on the bench, or you send Morris back down to AAA and burn a valuable option year.

 

Edit: maybe these posts should be moved to a Hart/Morris/1B thread instead of "General State of the Franchise"

[logan82]

Morris doesn't have to be put on the 40-man until after the season is over, and he has things to work on (only one season with an OBP >.330). If Hart was going to be out all season then it might make sense, but when Hart comes back you have a situation where you have to sit one or the other and you either lose any trade value for Hart by sitting him, you let Morris rot on the bench, or you send Morris back down to AAA and burn a valuable option year.

I think you are overvaluing that option. He is in AAA and still has 3 options remaining. I don't think it is realistic to think it will be worth keeping him in AAA for the better part of 4 seasons. I could see some argument for not wanting to use a 40-man spot if Yuni was not around.

[TheCrew07]

Worrying about option years with a 24 year old 1B is stretching the rationalization very thin.

 

What does he need option years for? In case Hart gets resigned? Option years really only matter for legitimate prospects who keep getting hurt and losing development time like Rogers, and maybe I should say legitimate talent instead of legitimate prospects. Regardless if a guy doesn't develop in 6-7 years chances are he's not going to develop.

 

Morris is already in AAA, option years should not be a concern.