General thoughts on the franchise.

[3and2Fastball]

Gallardo has never been an "ace". He has been a good pitcher with a 109 ERA+ and 3.75 ERA ---- trading him at the deadline last year would have netted us some great talent....

 

Yes, it is easy to use 20/20 hindsight vision, but I sincerely believe that the biggest mistake the Brewers have made is not selling high on Gallardo, Weeks, Hart and others when they had the chance. Those are precisely the type of players that you do not extend, in order to replenish the farm system and afford a big signing like Prince Fielder

 

I also disagree that Fielder is overrated. Show me another 29 year old 1B with a .400 OBP with the potential to hit 35-50 bombs a year who never gets hurt and plays 160-162 games a year

[adambr2]

Gallardo has never been an "ace". He has been a good pitcher with a 109 ERA+ and 3.75 ERA ---- trading him at the deadline last year would have netted us some great talent....

 

Yes, it is easy to use 20/20 hindsight vision, but I sincerely believe that the biggest mistake the Brewers have made is not selling high on Gallardo, Weeks, Hart and others when they had the chance. Those are precisely the type of players that you do not extend, in order to replenish the farm system and afford a big signing like Prince Fielder

 

I also disagree that Fielder is overrated. Show me another 29 year old 1B with a .400 OBP with the potential to hit 35-50 bombs a year who never gets hurt and plays 160-162 games a year

 

Well I disagree strongly. I think guys like Gallardo, Weeks, and Hart are exactly the kind of players that teams like us need to sign and sign early in order to compete, and not blow their entire payroll on guys like Prince who are negligibly better than similar players at their same position and command tons more money.

 

It's easy to look back at Weeks now and say that was dumb. It wouldn't look that way, especially at his salary, if we were looking at stats like in 2010 when he was MORE valuable than Braun OR Prince.

 

I still say Prince is not the kind of player you build a franchise around, and that's exactly what you're doing when you pay him $25M + a year. If we learned anything from having Braun and Prince together it should have been that it didn't mean a lick without pitching. Our offense actually got BETTER the year after Prince left. Now obviously that's not because he left, but what does it say about his true value to us?

 

And as far as comparables to Fielder who are better bets for the future, especially at the price, there are Chris Davis, Joey Votto. Paul Goldschmidt, etc. Not all have remained as healthy as Prince, but at 1B, we are also talking about a much less premium position than CF or SS, for instance, but paying premium player money. Prince is by no means a complete player, he's strictly bat only. So $25+ is an awful lot to pay for a bat-only player who isn't even in the top 10 in the MLB in OPS.

 

Again, saying we should have traded Gallardo at the deadline last year is strictly "shoulda coulda woulda" IMO. We were already looking at losing Greinke and Marcum, he was our only remaining ace, signed for multiple years for pretty cheap, and we surely were not looking at a long rebuilding process last year, which is exactly what that move would have signaled.

 

Yes, I would have traded Gallardo, Weeks, Hart, Axford, Marcum, Hardy, Casey McGehee and Bill Hall at their peaks if I could predict the future. Now I understand GM's need to show a little foresight and on some of these guys, the red flags are more glaring. But you can't just go back over every formerly All-Star caliber player on the roster and say we should have traded him before he declined.

[3and2Fastball]

Instead of using hindsight, lets look at the present Brewers:

 

If the Brewers have learned anything by all this, they'll trade Aoki this year or in the off-season...when players are good and have value is when you trade them... NOT when they start to decline (Gallardo, Weeks) or get injured a lot (Hart, Ramirez) and then you don't get as much back for them at all....other than Greinke (and that was more about $$$) the Brewers always wait until a player is on the decline to trade

 

You need to look at the roster and keep a core group (in this case I would say Segura, Gomez, Braun and maybe Lucroy) and then you need to trade the other players who aren't long-term cost controlled to replenish your farm system

 

Even on a decline, Gallardo & Weeks still have trade value, and Ramirez certainly does. Aoki really does. Lohse does to a degree too. Axford is mostly a salary dump. Hart as well if he can get healthy might have value

 

None of them have the value they might have had in the past, but again we're not using hindsight here

 

You trade those guys, restock your talent, hope that Jimmy Nelson develops, hope you can turn Peralta around and hopefully you've brought back more pitching from all those trades.

[bill hAll Star]

3 and 2 fastball is wearing some awesome hindsight 20/20 glasses on Gallardo, Weeks, Axford, and Hart.

 

"We should have sold high on all of the guys that have recently fallen apart or gotten injured. Then we should have used that to sign that massive contract that every expert thought was a MASSIVE risk that looks like it has worked 1.5 years into the 9."

[3and2Fastball]

yep, yep, I hear you guys on the "hindsight" thing.

 

Same principle though, I'm saying we should trade Aoki and probably Lucroy now while they have a lot of value

[bill hAll Star]

Instead of using hindsight, lets look at the present Brewers:

 

If the Brewers have learned anything by all this, they'll trade Aoki this year or in the off-season...when players are good and have value is when you trade them... NOT when they start to decline (Gallardo, Weeks) or get injured a lot (Hart, Ramirez) and then you don't get as much back for them at all....other than Greinke (and that was more about $$$) the Brewers always wait until a player is on the decline to trade

 

You need to look at the roster and keep a core group (in this case I would say Segura, Gomez, Braun and maybe Lucroy) and then you need to trade the other players who aren't long-term cost controlled to replenish your farm system

 

Even on a decline, Gallardo & Weeks still have trade value, and Ramirez certainly does. Aoki really does. Lohse does to a degree too. Axford is mostly a salary dump. Hart as well if he can get healthy might have value

 

None of them have the value they might have had in the past, but again we're not using hindsight here

 

You trade those guys, restock your talent, hope that Jimmy Nelson develops, hope you can turn Peralta around and hopefully you've brought back more pitching from all those trades.

 

This isn't the same as the 2010 time period where we had Braun in his mid/late 20s, Fielder for a few more years, and a fairly young core.

 

Of course we should trade Aoki, he's 31 and a speed-based player.

 

We signed Hart, Weeks, Gallardo in the 2009/2010 timeframe because Hart approached us for a fairly friendly contract, Gallardo's contract ate up his last few arby years, and Weeks looked like tremendous value and he finally "got it" in his mid/late 20s. We also had a reasonable core then.

 

Today's team is different. We are getting older and we are terrible with no farm system. Of course we should trade Aoki and really any of the other veterans but it isn't because of "lessons learned" from 2009-2012.

[bill hAll Star]

yep, yep, I hear you guys on the "hindsight" thing.

 

Same principle though, I'm saying we should trade Aoki and probably Lucroy now while they have a lot of value

 

Fair enough. I think we agree. Time to sell. Build around the new core.

[adambr2]

yep, yep, I hear you guys on the "hindsight" thing.

 

Same principle though, I'm saying we should trade Aoki and probably Lucroy now while they have a lot of value

 

It's also a little different to say that now when we clearly have no choice but to rebuild than 8 months removed from an NLCS appearance.

 

It's fairly easy to justify selling off good players for prospects to your fanbase when you're rebuilding. Much harder when they reasonably expect you to contend.

[3and2Fastball]

It's fairly easy to justify selling off good players for prospects to your fanbase when you're rebuilding. Much harder when they reasonably expect you to contend.

 

Well, again, it would've been different if we signed Prince longterm and then traded Hart, Weeks, & Gallardo after the 2011 season. That would've been something different to tell the fanbase: in order to sign Prince we had to trade away some other key players, but look at all the great prospects we received for those 3....

[adambr2]

It's fairly easy to justify selling off good players for prospects to your fanbase when you're rebuilding. Much harder when they reasonably expect you to contend.

 

Well, again, it would've been different if we signed Prince longterm and then traded Hart, Weeks, & Gallardo after the 2011 season. That would've been something different to tell the fanbase: in order to sign Prince we had to trade away some other key players, but look at all the great prospects we received for those 3....

 

Subbing in Prince for Hart, Bianchi/Gennett for Weeks, and ??? for Gallardo, I don't see us being any better than we are now, or having any better of an outlook for the future. We have to acknowledge that the odds of Prince being effective into his mid-30's are very remote. We had better hope under that scenario that the prospects gained from Hart, Weeks, and Gallardo yielded a treasure trove of prospects, because we probably wouldn't otherwise be competitive again until Prince left and sure wouldn't have any financial flexibility until then.

[RobertR]

Where does the idea that Gennett has proven himself "big league ready" come from? Frankly, at this point, I'd have a hard time saying he's much more than the poor man's Darwin Barney and overmatched at the big league level (small sample size / first impression caveats noted).

 

The Brewers need to field a full roster after all. Yeah, some contracts have come back to bite them this year, but Hart has been a good deal overall, who knew he would get hurt? And that Gamel would get hurt the same year too? Weeks was an All Star in 2011, like Fielder, who knew then that he'd fall off so far?

 

Really, the problem with the Brewers can be traced to starting pitching and the failure to develop it. Period. Signing Fielder to a big contract doesn't change that at all.

 

Robert

[adambr2]

Yeah I don't get the hype on Scooter. He's strictly a slap hitter who doesn't bring great speed or great defense to the table. I can see him probably being a nice pinch hitter off the bench. That has value, but not much

 

Hearing Michael Hunt describe a prospect who profiles as a bench player as a "can't miss prospect" was depressing.

[bill hAll Star]

I've always proposed that they should abolish the "batting average" stat.

 

Is it a bad stat? No, not a chance.

 

However, it misleads most fans. I want wOBA or whatever stat or if I'm doing a quick and dirty search, OPS is obviously good.

 

Average is good in the sense that if I have a great-hitting corner OF, the bonus is that he's a batting average guy.

 

Of course, 90% of this board knows that. However, a general fanbase gets taken for a ride and can't judge players correctly because they just follow the "batting title race" all season and get excited about Gennett because Rock tells them "he's hitting .310 in the minors" every night.

[brewcrewdue80]

Bothered by the Lawrie comment. 2011 .953 OPS in 150 ABs

2012 .729 OPS in 494 ABs

2013 .642 OPS in 139 ABs

 

In the alternate universe where we don't get Marcum we are staring at a potential arby decision already after the season on this guy. Yes he could still turn things around, but he is starting to get into that danger territory where he becomes another never will be. The actual production traded away during the win now years ends up not being that much. quote]

 

See something missing in 2012/2013 in the number of ABs? He's been injury prone and injuries affect a player's performance. Look at Braun in the last month? How about Ryan Zimmerman last season first half to 2nd? Not having that problem this season.

Also, if Melvin traded Lawrie when others didn't know he was available, clearly he had it in his mind to trade him. Likely not on the team by mid 2011 or he is. Still wonder if he trades him end of 2011.

You can't say he doesn't injured playing for Milwaukee over playing for Toronto but he does play in Domes/Astroturf at home, and when @ Tampa easily amounting to 100games over the season.

[Oxy]

Obviously, OPS is flawed--but it does provide for wonderful "benchmark" type stats- .700=not good .800=good .900=all-star 1.000=MVP. It's pretty smooth that way.

[adambr2]

Obviously, OPS is flawed--but it does provide for wonderful "benchmark" type stats- .700=not good .800=good .900=all-star 1.000=MVP. It's pretty smooth that way.

 

One caveat that I would like to add to that is that this should be considered relative to the position that the player plays as well. An .800+ OPS shortstop is probably among the top 5 hitting shortstops in baseball. An .800 OPS 1st baseman is probably pretty close to league average.

[brewcrewdue80]

Yes, I have caught on to that through BF. .700-.750OPS seem to come off regarded as Replacement level hitters. .800-.850 seem to be what one shoots for. But how does that adjust when you add Defensive skills? Is a .750OPS player really much worse over a .825OPS player when the former is a 1.5+Def WAR or higher and the latter is a 0 to -1Def WAR player?

 

Lawrie has excellent Defensive numbers and the potential with the bat(hitting between All Star-MVP OPS rookie ABS) There's no doubt he's going to stick in the Majors for a long time just on Defense alone. The bat potential and results will be a bonus. If he could stay healthy, mature a little I don't believe he will continue posting the .700NOT Good OPS numbers and be the .800 Good numbers guy. He's still 4years away from his prime 27aged season. How much of the Brewers Minors are filled as a percentage of guys older than him still trying to make it to the Big League?

[RobertR]

 

Hearing Michael Hunt describe a prospect who profiles as a bench player as a "can't miss prospect" was depressing.

 

Michael Hunt should be tested for drugs. That, right there, is just cause.

[brettac1]

Honestly, my general thoughts on the franchise are that I really don't like it all that much anymore. I haven't watched much of them since Betancourt started playing, because I figure I have MLB.TV so that I can watch the baseball that I enjoy. So, I watch teams that are fun to me, like Oakland, Cleveland, Texas, the entire AL East, etc. and players that I actually like.

 

The past offseason was a huge part of it for me. I just grew sick of Melvin (whom I have almost always been a staunch defender of here) - especially going into the season without a first baseman and with a weak starting rotation. This team is rudderless and are pretty much headed into Bucks territory right now, as far as being mired in mediocrity (possibly at best). I want them to tear it down and go young, but their top trade chip is not going to be moved anytime in the next few years and the farm system is weak and I don't care to see any of them at the MLB level at this point. And I have doubts that ownership will ever want to do a full rebuild.

[paul253]

The Brewers don't need a complete tear down. What they need to do is stop relying on certain players for so long. Guys I am thinking of specifically are Rickie Weeks, Carlos Gomez, and Corey Hart. Corey Hart should have been traded years ago. I like him. He's a good player. But the time comes for every player. We could have gotten a very good prospect for him a few years ago. Now the best we can hope for is that he turns down a QO and we end up with a comp pick somewhere in the 30s. Weeks and Gomez too. The Brewers completely over-value power. Weeks is a career .248 hitter yet for some reason Melvin threw close to $40 million at him because he hits home runs. His defense is average at best and his OBP has been declining 4 years straight now but we are stuck with him. Gomez has all the potential in the world but outside of power and defense he is average. He doesn't hit for average or get on base But again, he can hit home runs so Melvin throws a multi-year, multi-million contract at him.

 

Carlos Gomez could have easily been replaced by Logan Schafer if he had left. Rickie Weeks can be replaced by Scooter Gennett. Hart, back when he had trade value, could have been replaced by Gamel. Taylor Green was coming off a very good season in Nashville in 2011 but was never even given a chance to win the third base spot. What the Brewers need to do is stop pissing away so much money and use your system to replenish your team. Not everyone has to be a 20 home run guy. It's ok to have some role players. Then the money that is freed up can be spent on pitching or even on international free agents.

 

I think if the Brewers stop overspending on free agents, including their own, and start drafting better, they'll be fine. They don't need to trade Braun.

[RobertR]

If the Brewers were to offer up Gomez for trade now, they'd get a lot more in return than they would have gotten over the offseason. I don't see how keeping one of their best players on an affordable contract is any kind of issue. If they had traded Gomez in the offseason for a solid, but unremarkable starter, we'd all be kicking Melvin for trading a budding star for a run of the mill player.

[paul253]

I don't see how keeping one of their best players on an affordable contract is any kind of issue. If they had traded Gomez in the offseason for a solid, but unremarkable starter, we'd all be kicking Melvin for trading a budding star for a run of the mill player.

Last year Carlos Gomez hit .260 with a .305 OBP and those were both career highs (in 5 seasons with at least 230 at bats). You are certainly entitled to your opinion but I don't consider him one of our best players, offensively at least (I think Braun, Lucroy, Segura, Ramirez and Hart are all better offensively). Maybe he keeps up the .300 BA and .360+ OBP this year. Only time will tell. But I think Logan Schafer, who is no slouch in CF, could hit for a higher average and get on base at a higher rate if given the chance. And if he doesn't Aoki can play center with someone like Khris Davis or Caleb Gindl playing RF.

 

And Melvin didn't sign to him a 4 year contract to trade him half way through the first year. Like I said I just think he is overvaluing the home run numbers here. You have a guy who had 5 years to prove himself and didn't really do anything. I just don't understand the need to offer him a 4 year contract.

[RobertR]

Going forward it may be change, but, to date, Carlos Gomez is absolutely one of the Brewers best players. And one of the best players in baseball in 2013.

 

Sure, you can reasonably expect that he'll regress some. But, having one of the best players in baseball in 2013 to date on your team for an affordable contract is no kind of mistake whatsoever. Odds are, the Brewers would have gotten a lot less in value for him than what he's produced to date.

 

More to the point, we should never assume that the Brewers were offered anything valuable for him in return. Certainly the fact that Gomez and his agent were willing to sign an extension suggests that there wasn't a huge market for him. Maybe the Brewers would have gotten a little more for Gomez than the Twins received for Denard Span, but I'm happy to have Gomez if that was the reasonable expected return. Especially, if you don't assume that Logan Schafer will be a particularly valuable player.

[paul253]

Odds are, the Brewers would have gotten a lot less in value for him than what he's produced to date.

 

My plan for Gomez would have been let his contract play out. After this year you either offer him a multi-year deal, offer him a QO or let him walk. I thought the most likely would have been the QO. He may have accepted but he also may have been looking for a multi-year deal worth more total money. Obviously we'll have to wait til the season ends but I would not be surprised in the least bit to see his numbers somewhere around .280 with a .320 OBP when the season ends. Not bad but certainly replaceable.

 

Maybe I'm wrong. I am certainly not rooting against him. I just think this is one part of a bad strategy by Melvin. He has been pretty successful at developing position players but unless they are can't miss guys (Fielder, Braun, Weeks, Hart) or there are no alternatives (Lucroy, Hardy) they never seem to be given a legitimate chance to succeed. Green, Gamel, Schafer. Quite possibly Gennett and Khris Davis. Melvin would rather spend millions of dollars signing players to multiple long term deals then to trade them when their value is high and let a younger player get an extended opportunity. Then we get stuck with bad players with bad contracts like Bill Hall and Rickie Weeks (and thank god Casey McGehee said no).

[Oxy]

Actually, if you have one of the best players in baseball under a very reasonable contract but won't be particularly competitive within the length of that contract, it only makes sense to trade him--particularly when you have a barren farm system (redundant, I guess, since you don't project to be competitive under his contract). It doesn't do a whole lot of good to have an MVP caliber season while your team wins 73 games. You need to either stockpile young talent by trading away your best contracts or re-evaluate what you have, trade a quantity of marginal prospects for proven players and sign free agents. We've been doing the latter for quite awhile. This season was the make or break point with the Lohse signing. It has proven to be a miserable failure, so it's time to trade in my mind.

 

Gomez would be the most reasonable trade bait. His value is at it's peak right now. If we can get a nice haul of prospects it would totally be worth it. Aoki as well.