General thoughts on the franchise.

[TooLiveBrew]

hypothetically...how much do you guys think we could get for braun? do you guys think it could be a herschel walker type of deal?

crossface21 asked the same question in the Transactions Rumors forum... have at it!

[brewcrewdue80]

hypothetically...how much do you guys think we could get for braun? do you guys think it could be a herschel walker type of deal?

 

Well, no since you're talking a different sport where the success in draft picks are more frequent than the success in MLB draft picks.

 

What do I think it would take to get Braun?

1 would be an immediate ML Player with at least 3 more years team control.

Then you throw in 3 top 50 Prospects.

And a Player to be named later. Probably another future top 50 Prospect that given an added two months or more to evaluate can be tabbed.

 

So let's say the Mets:

Wheeler,Syndergaard,Nimmo,Jennry Mejia and then the PTBNL.

That would be the Prospects. There would still need to be another player involved from that 3rd team. Maybe it's Rendon from Washington. while swapping them one of those Wheeler/Syndergaard pitchers.

 

I don't know, how to really make it work but that's probably an open line for discussion.

[torts]

the brewers will never ever trade Ryan Braun. I mean, I dont even see how anyone would enjoy even thinking about what the franchise could get in return because the immediate (and long term) negative impact both on the field and in the stands would be devestating. As a fan, i'd stop BEING a fan if they traded away one of the best players the franchise has ever had.

[monty57]

too many "potential" trades are being tossed around like they were all on Melvin's desk to make the call and he opted not too...it's a straw man argument to criticize a GM for hypothetical trade scenarios that weren't completed. Criticize him for the moves that were made and his overall approach to building the organization. The Brewers organization as a whole needs to be better at identifying and developing pitching talent, period. For the most part, the Brewers have swung and missed with many early round draft picks on pitching, they used minor league prospects to acquire major league pitching via trade with a high level of success. Getting hosed on draft pick compensation for losing CC stunk, but they got great return value for trading Greinke last year (2 pitching prospects and Segura) to replenish their farm system after it was gutted prior to the 2011 season.

 

bottom line, they need to hit on some draft picks the next two years in a big way, and they need to acquire some minor league talent by trading pieces off their current big league roster by the deadline.

 

So we can't assume that there were any other potential moves, and that he made every possible trade he could've made, so we can only analyze these moves. No thanks. There were an infinite number of "possibilities," so rather than re-hash every move and potential move, I'd rather just judge him on the state of the franchise which he has been charged with overseeing.

 

He inherited a franchise that was well into a rebuild started under Dean Taylor. The farm system was much better than it had been a few years prior, he had some top draft picks early in his tenure, and he had a new owner who was allowing for huge spending/payroll increases. We had a poor MLB team, but he inherited a team with a promising future. From this promising future, we got two playoff years (one playoff series win) and now the MLB team has the third worst record in the league with one of the worst farm systems of any franchise. We have a lot of payroll obligations which will hamper our ability to make moves for at least another year, and possibly more, and we're already seeing a drop in attendance which could very well drop further heading into next year, when we're almost certainly going to have a $100MM+ payroll.

 

So, let's not bicker over every move he did or did not make. Let's just look at the net result of all the moves the Brewers have made over the past decade or so and ask if we're satisfied. Some people simply look at making the playoffs after a 20-something year drought, and think that it was worth it. I remember the bright future we had and wish we hadn't taken such a "win now" approach. While I am not surprised at the current situation of the team, I am disappointed that they chose a strategy where this was the expected outcome.

 

I think we're set to look a lot like the Brewer teams we remember during that 20-something year playoff drought, with a few good players like Sexson, Jenkins, Burnitz, Sheets, Cirillo, Vina, Loretta, etc surrounded by a bunch of average-ish guys, leading to teams that are not good enough to make a serious run at the playoffs, but not bad enough to get us high draft picks and now the extra "money" allowed to spend on draft picks and international FAs. I hope we don't get back to the putrid attendance we had during those years, we are likely to see attendance fall no matter what, so in my mind we might as well institute a strategy with the potential for a brighter future rather than playing the "safe" strategy that will likely mean an extended period of shooting for .500.

[TheCrew07]

B) My understanding is that the GM is usually only involved with picks in the first two rounds of the draft (like how Melvin overruled Jack Z. and drafted Gallardo instead of the guy Jack Z's recommended)

 

Huh? That's not how Colby reported that draft pick going down, the room was split between Cordier and Gallardo. I've reposted this Colby quote every single time Melvin's name has come up in regards to making draft picks.

 

Melvin doesn't know anything about Rodon because he's barely involved at all. He might go scout a couple of 1st rounders with Seid and have done similar with Jack Z in the past but that's about it.

[brewmann04]

NO way Braun gets traded.

[monty57]

the brewers will never ever trade Ryan Braun. I mean, I dont even see how anyone would enjoy even thinking about what the franchise could get in return because the immediate (and long term) negative impact both on the field and in the stands would be devestating. As a fan, i'd stop BEING a fan if they traded away one of the best players the franchise has ever had.

 

I agree with you that Braun will not be traded, probably ever.

 

However, people should prepare themselves that the last few years of his contract he is not going to be anywhere near where he is now. Braun was born on 11/17/83, and his contract goes through 2020, with a mutual option for 2021, so he'll be almost 37 when the contract is up. Prime years for most players end somewhere around age 30 or 31, so he's nearing the end of his prime. He should still be good for a while, but will probably start seeing the normal age regression.

 

Now would probably be the time to trade Braun if it is ever going to happen, as he would bring back a king's ransom and the receiving team would get about another year of his "prime" and would be on the hook for his bad years at the end of the contract. But again, I agree that he will not be traded. There are too few "legendary Brewers," so the thought of adding one is probably too big for the Brewers to contemplate trading him.

[MJLiverock]

So we can't assume that there were any other potential moves, and that he made every possible trade he could've made, so we can only analyze these moves. No thanks. There were an infinite number of "possibilities," so rather than re-hash every move and potential move, I'd rather just judge him on the state of the franchise which he has been charged with overseeing.

 

He inherited a franchise that was well into a rebuild started under Dean Taylor. The farm system was much better than it had been a few years prior, he had some top draft picks early in his tenure, and he had a new owner who was allowing for huge spending/payroll increases. We had a poor MLB team, but he inherited a team with a promising future. From this promising future, we got two playoff years (one playoff series win) and now the MLB team has the third worst record in the league with one of the worst farm systems of any franchise. We have a lot of payroll obligations which will hamper our ability to make moves for at least another year, and possibly more, and we're already seeing a drop in attendance which could very well drop further heading into next year, when we're almost certainly going to have a $100MM+ payroll.

 

So, let's not bicker over every move he did or did not make. Let's just look at the net result of all the moves the Brewers have made over the past decade or so and ask if we're satisfied. Some people simply look at making the playoffs after a 20-something year drought, and think that it was worth it. I remember the bright future we had and wish we hadn't taken such a "win now" approach. While I am not surprised at the current situation of the team, I am disappointed that they chose a strategy where this was the expected outcome.

 

I think the win now approach was perfect, they used the minor league talent to plug the hole, ML pitching and made two playoff runs, one in which they had a legit shot at the WS. Small market teams don't compete forever, they have a window, I don't know how many more ways to show the A's and Twins and Rays haven't been competitive play off teams every year. Good grief the A's just finished off a 5 year period of failing to get above .500. The small market teams have to take their shot when available or perpetually rebuild like the Royals, Pirates. I am willing to accept there may well be 4 years or whatever of no better than 500 ball to put together 4-5 years of above 500 ball. Had the Brewers not traded for the ML pitching they would have stunk for the whole period because they had no pitching at the ML level and their pitching prospects didn't pan out.

 

I agree with a couple of the posters and this is where I differ with Monty and TheCrew07, in that I don't assume there was some better deal for impact minor league pitching that was available. I think he screwed up in the drafting and developing of pitching, he had enough time to generate some ML pitching talent and if he had this argument wouldn't be happening because the offense is decent enough, but the pitching is horrible. I don't assume Melvin is such a complete idiot that he didn't seek out some impact minor league pitching but I just doubt they could get a deal done given the offensive players they had to offer. IIRC most of the Tampa trades (other than Young/Garza) for pitching have involved pitchers going from Tampa as well, not purely position players for impact pitchers which is all Milwaukee really had to offer. There may have been rumors of this guy or that guy but obviously deals weren't done and we all know how often the rumors aren't anything substantial or more of a wish than anything. Bucholz was mentioned at times as untouchable by Boston so other than wishing they would have done Hardy for Bucholz or Melvin saying he would do it I doubt it was a real offer. Teams all know the value of impact young cost controlled pitching so I question how much they could have gotten for any of the Lawrie, LaPorta, Gillespie, Escobar, Cain, Brantley, etc. they gave up. Given they got none back I'd wager the answer is not much. Sometimes the market is exactly right in pricing, you can say a stock or your house is worth X, but it is really only worth what someone actually gives you for it on the day you are looking to sell it.

 

I don't think our overall take on the situation is that different, other than I can't blame the situation on hypothetical trades that may not have any basis in reality since they didn't happen. I do place the blame on the area we can all see they failed miserably at, drafting and developing pitching. They had plenty of drafts to address the situation to where this shouldn't be the issue it is today.

 

The payroll isn't a big worry for me, I just don't think they would have "banked" the money and said if they ran a $50MM payroll for a couple years they would run $150MM payroll in some other years. They don't have a bunch of keys guys looking to hit free agency that they need room for and we have all argued the merits or lack there of in committing big FA dollars to the types of pitchers that reach free agency. I'm not going to worry if Attanasio doesn't make as much money or pay down his debt as much as hoped, too many other things to think about as a fan.

[brewcrewdue80]

the brewers will never ever trade Ryan Braun. I mean, I dont even see how anyone would enjoy even thinking about what the franchise could get in return because the immediate (and long term) negative impact both on the field and in the stands would be devestating. As a fan, i'd stop BEING a fan if they traded away one of the best players the franchise has ever had.

 

That's why I say a Perennial All-Star needs to come in return. Anthony Rendon. If ARam is indeed traded away as a short term rental piece to some other team. Rendon coming over to us in my scenario wouldn't result in the team having a negative impact on the Field. Move Gomez to LF. Schafer at CF. Aoki or the AAAers in RF. That right there plus an Impact arm would have to be a short-term sideways move with an immediate improvement the following season as the young guys gain experience. Rendon/Syndargaard I believe wouldn't keep fans turned off anywhere near as long as you think. As the one thing as a Fan I'm starving for is a Pitcher with Ace ability. The falloff in Braun to Rendon I'm going to believe isn't as much as the gain in the Starting Pitching. There's a lot of money gained in the deal in the long-term.

BTW, I suggested the Mets in my hypothesis in that they are rumored in Stanton/Carlos Gonzalez acquisitions...Really wanting a stud OFer. Imagine Braun/Wright 3/4 signed through 2020 for that Organization?

 

Let's go with this Sellers notion....Would you keep Lucroy or take the chance on Travis D'Arnaud? Meaning if you make a deal trading away Braun attaining TDA in it you can then make Lucroy Expendable for some Prospect profit.

So let's say it's TDA/Syndargaard/Nimmo plus Rendon while Wash get Wheeler. And a PTBNL. Then you flip Lucroy for a Solid-high #3 upside to 2 SP? That would cover SP,SP,3b,C, future OF long term for 2players.

You're saying you would lose being a fan of the team if it played out?

[gregmag]

I've just been immersing myself in all things Brewers for the first time in a while, and I find myself feeling perversely not as pessimistic as I was feeling a couple of weeks ago.

 

This season is toast. It's over as of June 1. The thing is, if you're going to crash and burn, then crash and burn early. The team is taking some opportunities now to look at options and move pieces around. I like the Francisco trade; I don't think Gennett is a MLB starter, but maybe I'm wrong, and anyway, now is as good a time as any to give him a shot.

 

I think the team has to be thinking seriously about dealing Hart and Ramirez, Weeks if he can perk up, and does Lohse have a no-trade? Get what you can for those guys, see what you have in your young guys -- that's the only way I know of to rebuild.

 

Earlier in the season I was utterly depressed by prospect performances, but now I'm feeling a bit better. The Greinke trade looks with each passing day like one of the best deals the team has ever made. In addition to Hellweg and Pena, Jungmann looks like he may be figuring some things out. These are at least the kinds of young pitchers who have a chance. The hitting side is more bleak, especially at our major positions of need, but I like what Haniger is doing, I'm excited about Arcia, and I think Morris has a chance to be useful.

 

We've been in contention mode, and I was okay with that. It's over now; the pitching hasn't panned out. The system is shallow. But we have five out of eight everyday positions very well covered at the MLB level for the next few years, and maybe half a pitching staff that projects okay in the medium term. Let's rebuild around those guys and see what happens.

[markedman5]

So Melvin now says the Brewers are in rebuilding mode........

 

[I Heart Brewers]

So Melvin now says the Brewers are in rebuilding mode........

 

 

Best news all morning.

 

Is there a termination clause in the Lohse contract that gives them the first rounder back?

 

Now if only Herbie goes bananas had gotten the same memo that Doug did. Then the state's professional franchises could all have bright futures. But I digress.

[Fear The Chorizo]

If the Brewers didn't make the trades they did in 2008 and 2011 to get impact MLB pitching, they don't make the playoffs those two years, and they probably aren't in any better shape as an organization. The problem forever with the Brewers' organization is that they haven't had any quality pitching depth in their minor league system. Great high-ceiling pitching prospects are hardly ever acquired via trade anymore, they're the most valuable thing there is to MLB teams. I'd argue what Melvin got in return for Greinke is about as good as you can get nowadays for a quality MLB arm. You have to draft and develop ace-caliber arms to at least have those potential franchise-builders in the pipeline. The Brewers haven't done that, which is why their MLB pitching staff is in the shape it is now.

 

Matt Moore was a 7th round pick Tampa signed for less than 200K. David Price was one of their many can't-miss, top 5 overall picks signed to a big bonus. Jake O was part of the trade that James Shields netted them. Tampa's built quality pitching depth in their system in many ways (high draft picks, mid-round picks on projectable arms, trades), but hardly ever with a significant free agent signing.

[Invader3K]

Here's a link to the Michael Hunt column alluded to earlier: http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/time-for-brewers-to-plan-for-next-year-b9925062z1-210029551.html

 

While not prepared to concede the division to the Cardinals and the Reds with two-thirds of the season to play, general manager Doug Melvin gave a general idea of the direction Monday when he told me, "If we make any more trades this year, it's going to be for two or three years from now instead of now.

 

"I'm not going to be trading any young players to win games."

[DocLuna7]

Here's a link to the Michael Hunt column alluded to earlier: http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/time-for-brewers-to-plan-for-next-year-b9925062z1-210029551.html

 

"I'm not going to be trading any young players to win games."[/i]

 

Perhaps because we couldn't get much in return?

[brewcrewdue80]

If the Brewers didn't make the trades they did in 2008 and 2011 to get impact MLB pitching, they don't make the playoffs those two years, and they probably aren't in any better shape as an organization. The problem forever with the Brewers' organization is that they haven't had any quality pitching depth in their minor league system. Great high-ceiling pitching prospects are hardly ever acquired via trade anymore, they're the most valuable thing there is to MLB teams. I'd argue what Melvin got in return for Greinke is about as good as you can get nowadays for a quality MLB arm. You have to draft and develop ace-caliber arms to at least have those potential franchise-builders in the pipeline. The Brewers haven't done that, which is why their MLB pitching staff is in the shape it is now.

quote]

 

I disagree that they wouldn't have made the Playoffs in 2011 w/o the trades. At least the Marcum trade.

We made the Playoffs by 7games. Marcum vs. the Late season run Brett Lawrie had potentially in place of Casey McGehee and the end resulting needed deal for a 3b in Aramis Ramirez.

 

Considering what's happened to Lawrie I don't blame the club for trading him away, he really comes off as a tool. But the return they got for him 2 years of Shaun Marcum wasn't anywhere near correct value. Again, such lack of forthsight. They rented a pitcher for 2 years giving away a promising future 3b who likely had 6 years or more of team ownership. The combined cost for Marcum/Aramis is staggering compared to what Lawrie is making. And if you can't find a band-aid in Free Agency for that amount of money comparable to Marcum's ability....That's sad.

Lawrie if played in 2011 but then disliked and wanted to be traded in the offseason of 2011/12 I bet there's a SP under our team control today better than anyone we have now. Lawrie's value had to be through the roof end of 2011. His value likely would have been high at the Trade Deadline 2011 too.

The way I view it, is Marcum wasn't the reason we went to the Playoffs in 2011. He was one of the main reasons we lost in the Playoffs but that's another story. We threw away a top 50 Prospect at age 21 headed to AAA who played a key position 3b. And traded that talent away prematurely for a 2year non-elite soft tossing Marcum. My look in to trade deal would likely have gone Oakland's Trevor Cahill for Lawrie. That's the value the team should have sought.

[Bombers]

If the Brewers didn't make the trades they did in 2008 and 2011 to get impact MLB pitching, they don't make the playoffs those two years, and they probably aren't in any better shape as an organization. The problem forever with the Brewers' organization is that they haven't had any quality pitching depth in their minor league system. Great high-ceiling pitching prospects are hardly ever acquired via trade anymore, they're the most valuable thing there is to MLB teams. I'd argue what Melvin got in return for Greinke is about as good as you can get nowadays for a quality MLB arm. You have to draft and develop ace-caliber arms to at least have those potential franchise-builders in the pipeline. The Brewers haven't done that, which is why their MLB pitching staff is in the shape it is now.

quote]

 

I disagree that they wouldn't have made the Playoffs in 2011 w/o the trades. At least the Marcum trade.

We made the Playoffs by 7games. Marcum vs. the Late season run Brett Lawrie had potentially in place of Casey McGehee and the end resulting needed deal for a 3b in Aramis Ramirez.

 

Considering what's happened to Lawrie I don't blame the club for trading him away, he really comes off as a tool. But the return they got for him 2 years of Shaun Marcum wasn't anywhere near correct value. Again, such lack of forthsight. They rented a pitcher for 2 years giving away a promising future 3b who likely had 6 years or more of team ownership. The combined cost for Marcum/Aramis is staggering compared to what Lawrie is making. And if you can't find a band-aid in Free Agency for that amount of money comparable to Marcum's ability....That's sad.

Lawrie if played in 2011 but then disliked and wanted to be traded in the offseason of 2011/12 I bet there's a SP under our team control today better than anyone we have now. Lawrie's value had to be through the roof end of 2011. His value likely would have been high at the Trade Deadline 2011 too.

The way I view it, is Marcum wasn't the reason we went to the Playoffs in 2011. He was one of the main reasons we lost in the Playoffs but that's another story. We threw away a top 50 Prospect at age 21 headed to AAA who played a key position 3b. And traded that talent away prematurely for a 2year non-elite soft tossing Marcum. My look in to trade deal would likely have gone Oakland's Trevor Cahill for Lawrie. That's the value the team should have sought.

 

Marcum was our best pitcher from April to August in 2011. He was very consistent and I do not believe we would have "handidly" won that year without him. Early in the season he was the only one performing. If we would not have traded for him and maybe signed:

- Jon Garland for 1 yr 5 million (pitched 6 games before getting hurt - also was a type B) or maybe we could have went after

- Ted Lilly (who had a comparible season in 2011) but has been useless since on his 3 year deal. Or maybe??

- Carl Pavano (2 yrs 16 million ... Had a decent 2011 but did nothing last year) ... don't even think he is on a team this year.

- We had no minor league options to consider.

 

In the end, Doug made the trade. I agree with you, I would have preferred one of the listed above over dumping Lawrie but Doug thought differently. In the end, Marcum performed well all year and got the Brewers in the position they were in. Yes, his arm was burnt out and he completely failed them in the postseason. But then point at RRR who should take more of the blame for not identifying it. Marcum never should have started game 6 (especially after pitching horrible in his previous 2 post season starts).

 

To me the two items I blame more than Marcum's arm falling off is (1) blowing 5 of 6 games vs the cards in September to allow them into the playoffs. If we would have won just 1 more, they would not have made it in. (2) Zach Greinke forgot to show up in the playoffs too. Maybe he could have done a little bit better than his 6.48 ERA. (3) RRR's bad managing. Starting Kotsay, starting Marcum, etc.

 

I have less of an issue with the Marcum trade then I do with use not being able to develop in house talent. (Which could have prevented us from selling off Lawrie in the first place.) So in the end, our current state is a result of never being able to develop in house talent and always relying on trades. That really sets you up for short term success which we certainly have prooved.

[LouisEly]

Much like Sabathia, the Brewers expected to get a draft pick for Marcum if they could not extend him and he ended up leaving. Unfortunately a poorly-timed injury for Marcum made offering him a qualifying offer a poor risk. The plan wasn't to rent him for two years and then let him walk for nothing. Part of the reason for the state of the franchise is bad luck - not getting a 1st round pick for Sabathia (that could have been Trout) and Marcum getting hurt right at the end of his contract and not getting a pick for him leaving.

 

Before people start posting that the Brewers sign or trade for injury-risk pitchers, injuries can happen to any pitcher at any time. They can happen in the early 20's (Liriano, more 1st round draft picks than I care to list), mid-20's (Prior, Hudson), or late 20's (Webb, Billingsley, Wood, Kazmir, Carpenter).

 

Edit: forgot about Hudson, who apparently was offered to us for Fielder. There would have been another injury.

[TheCrew07]

While the injury thing is absolutely true, the only 2 players the Brewers didn't get compensation for were Sheets and Marcum, and both were major injury risks. I'm certainly willing to concede that you and/or the organization didn't view Marcum that way, but a large percentage of the fanbase on this site did.

 

Having LAA get that pick in front of us for Teixeira which ultimately became Trout stung but it wasn't bad luck, that's how the compensation system works.

 

Trying to get a compensation pick out of K-Rod failed miserably as well, and he wasn't hurt. The Brewers just haven't been very good at the whole organization building game and there are multiple reasons why.

 

I've never been a fan of the "and we'll get a compensation pick" argument tagged to rental players because clearly anything can and will happen to impact those selections. Not mention the Brewers haven't exactly hit any home runs with those supplemental selections, only Jake Odorizzi looks to have a solid MLB career in front of him.

[xisxisxis]

Here's a link to the Michael Hunt column alluded to earlier: http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/time-for-brewers-to-plan-for-next-year-b9925062z1-210029551.html

 

While not prepared to concede the division to the Cardinals and the Reds with two-thirds of the season to play, general manager Doug Melvin gave a general idea of the direction Monday when he told me, "If we make any more trades this year, it's going to be for two or three years from now instead of now.

 

"I'm not going to be trading any young players to win games."

 

Not picking on anyone in particular, but who cares what Melvin says. He has repeatedly said one thing and goes out and does something else. Wasn't it just a few weeks ago that we were told Gennet won't see the majors this year. Now (without an injury) he is up. Repeatedly he does 180 degree turns based on something he has "said", yet anytime he says something we like then it's the mad rush to "look he finally gets it"..... Except he doesn't get it. It's clear from his actions he doesn't get it. So looking at what he said:

 

"If we make any more trades this year" - That doesn't sound like a rebuilding GM. That sounds like a GM whose playing the hand he was dealt.

 

"it's going to be for two or three years from now" - great, so when Weeks, Hart, ARam, Lohse, and Gallardo and likely Gomez are gone. That leaves a core of Braun and Segura (I am leaving Lucroy out because crappy catchers are pretty easy to pick up off the pile). So if we don't trade Hart, we lose him. If we don't trade Aram he is gone after 2014. If we hold onto Gallardo, then we've overpaid for his major decline years.

 

Holding onto the pieces we have, not trading anyone before they expire, and waiting for ZERO impact players in the minors to arrive is no rebuild to me it's a slow death into mediocrity (or worse). If we are sellers at the deadline I will have a lot more optimism for this franchise going forward. Until then, GO CARDS!!!

[Bombers]

(I am leaving Lucroy out because crappy catchers are pretty easy to pick up off the pile).

Ah right, Jason Kendall, Gregg Zaun, Johnny Estrada ... yep, just an awesome lot sitting on that scrap heap

[Fear The Chorizo]

My look in to trade deal would likely have gone Oakland's Trevor Cahill for Lawrie. That's the value the team should have sought.

 

Ok - so who's to say Melvin didn't inquire about that and was shot down? That goes back to my argument of possible trade scenarios in poster's minds that turn into strawman arguments, because nobody knows what was on the table and what was considered/pursued aside from the moves that were actually completed. So far, Lawrie hasn't exactly profiled to be a perennial allstar, either - more along the lines of a talented prospect that isn't making the most of his tools because he's a headcase.

 

Also, if I remember correctly, Marcum was the 1st pitcher the Brewers traded for during the offseason prior to 2011 when their rotation had more holes than swiss cheese and people were wondering whether Fielder was going to be dealt and Melvin would consider starting a mini-rebuild then. Part of Melvin's trouble with trading prospects for major league pitching in the past is that he was counting on compensatory picks when those pitchers left via free agency. As others have posted, Marcum didn't give them that opportunity to get an extra pick because he got injured. He was by far their best pitcher for the 1st half of the 2011 season, and while the Brewers made the playoffs by 7 games, without his contributions a playoff spot would have been much more dicey.

[TheCrew07]

My look in to trade deal would likely have gone Oakland's Trevor Cahill for Lawrie. That's the value the team should have sought.

 

Ok - so who's to say Melvin didn't inquire about that and was shot down?

 

If Melvin had ever looked to acquire young impact pitching prior to the most recent Greinke trade then that would be a valuable argument. As it stands, he hasn't and he won't unless he's forced to because there are no other options. It's clear that he prefers to trade only for proven commodities as they are much safer, they will have some sort of MLB career, regardless of their ultimate ceiling as a player.

 

Oakland wasn't giving up Cahill for a hitter they would have wanted pitching, they traded Gonzalez who was older and had less years of team control left, which is exactly what Marcum was and why he was traded. We should have been looking for a prospect swap in the 30-60 range on BAs top 100.

 

30. Gary Sanchez, c, Yankees

31. Casey Kelly, rhp, Padres 2-3, 6.21 ERA, 6 games played

32. Tyler Matzek, lhp, Rockies

33. Jarrod Parker, rhp, Diamondbacks 17-14, 3.78 ERA, 42 games played

34. Kyle Gibson, rhp, Twins

35. Randall Delgado, rhp, Braves 5-10, 4.03 ERA, 26 games played

36. Travis d'Arnaud, c, Blue Jays

37. Mike Minor, lhp, Braves 26-17, 4.00 ERA, 65 games played

38. Brett Jackson, of, Cubs .175/.303/.342, 44 games played

39. Jonathan Singleton, 1b, Phillies

40. Brett Lawrie, 2b, Blue Jays .266/.324/.433, 205 games played

41. Manny Banuelos, lhp, Yankees

42. Jordan Lyles, rhp, Astros 10-21, 5.08 ERA, 52 games played

43. Dellin Betances, rhp, Yankees 0-0, 6.75 ERA, 2 games played

44. Jenrry Mejia, rhp, Mets 1-6, 4.91 ERA, 38 games played

45. Aaron Hicks, of, Twins .173/.246/.335, 50 games played

46. Tony Sanchez, c, Pirates

47. Alex White, rhp, Indians 5-13, 6.03 ERA, 33 games played

48. Trey McNutt, rhp, Cubs

49. Wilin Rosario, c, Rockies .260/.298/.498, 181 games played

50. Billy Hamilton, ss/2b, Reds

51. Christian Colon, ss, Royals

52. Jose Iglesias, ss, Red Sox .260/.312/.362, 51 games played

53. Nick Franklin, ss/2b, Mariners .250/.375/.550, 7 games played

54. Jason Kipnis, 2b, Indians .256/.330/.412, 236 games played

55. Zack Wheeler, rhp, Giants

56. Brody Colvin, rhp, Phillies

57. Jean Segura, 2b, Angels .309/.354/.453, 100 games played

58. Simon Castro, rhp, Padres

59. Wilmer Flores, ss, Mets

60. Miguel Sano, 3b/ss, Twins

 

Personally I would have went after Parker or Minor if I was going to trade Lawrie for a pitcher. Chipper Jones was on his way out in ATL and Ryan Roberts was holding down 3B in ARI, I'm not sure many teams saw Lawrie as a 2B. Though both teams arguably had 2B holes to fill as well.

 

The guy on that list I would have really wanted is Zack Wheeler but San Fran would have had to be convinced Lawrie was a 2B, and again I'm not sure many teams thought he was a 2B. The Giants have been desperate for offense forever but we've never seemed to be able to match up.

[monty57]

I don't really like the "what if" game, as I prefer looking at the aggregates, but here's a quick scenario:

 

Suppose Melvin had taken the offer that was on the table (per Hardricourt) of Hudson-for-Fielder straight up. Then suppose TheCrew07's idea from above (Lawrie at #40 for Parker #33 or Minor #37) went through.

 

We still would've had a good team in 2011, as Daniel Hudson had a good year that year. We may or may not have won the division, but we would still have had a very good shot at the playoffs. However, the real difference would be on where we'd be now, with a starting rotation for the next few seasons of Gallardo, Hudson, Minor/Parker, Odorizzi, Peralta.

 

Who knows what other moves would or wouldn't have been made in conjunction with the above stated moves. We can't re-write history, but my point is that we could've done things differently, keeping a very good team on the field in the "present" (2011) and keeping an eye on the future so we wouldn't have the current present (2013). It's the aggregate moves (things we did do and things we didn't do) that have led us to where we are now. We'll never know what could've been, but I'll never believe that what we did was the only possible option. No business should be run the way Melvin/Attanasio have run the Brewers, constantly trading the future for the present.

[LouisEly]

If the Brewers would have traded Fielder for Hudson they would have nothing to show for it - Hudson blew out his elbow 9 games into 2012 and hasn't pitched since.