General thoughts on the franchise.

[MNBrew]

I feel he's pretty much saying his philosophy is to find discarded pitchers other teams wouldn't wait to develop to perform.

Not at all. I think you missed his point. He's saying that many accomplished MLB SPs have taken a few years in the bigs to develop -- because most pitchers' development isn't complete once they arrive in MLB -- and the key to that is patience. One way the Brewers can realistically/affordably help themselves at this point is to hunt for the sort of SP who was projected as very high-ceiling, but who hasn't done as well to start with and his team has lost patience with him.

 

The point w/ citing Homer Bailey is that while Bailey's good now both this year & last, for all the hype & potential when he came up, he wasn't very good at all, let alone consistently, for his first 5 years. But the Reds showed enough patience & gave him that chance to finish his development into the good pitcher he is while in the Reds' rotation. Melvin also mentioned Jake Westbrook. He could've added Cliff Lee, Chris Carpenter, Greg Maddux (1st 2 years), Ben Sheets (1st 3 years), etc.

 

Of course the Brewers need impact pitching. And of course they need to do a far better drafting & developing good pitching, especially SPs. But no one's just going to drop them into the Brewers' laps in trade discussions, let alone for a reasonable cost. So they have to explore every possible avenue because the young stud SPs who are instantly & also career-long successes are more the exception than the rule.

 

I don't know, I haven't really listened to Melvin Talk before. Listening to him, it felt like he had a computer in front of him to pull up numbers/stats like we here at BF do for our topics/discussions and not somebody with a whole lot more Baseball Knowledge that a GM should just have.

If you thought he sounded bland and that was a revelation . . . well . . . to me that's what they all tend to sound like. A GM interview isn't typically going to wow you. However, I'd also posit that while Melvin isn't fancy, he's generally quite honest (at least as much as any GM can be) & isn't going to create big, misleading expectations. Melvin's not a fish oil salesman, but like any GM, he does have to maintain his poker face ("I'm not motivated to trade Lyle Overbay" - paraphrased Melvin quote from the off-season leading into the year Fielder became the everyday 1B on opening day).

 

Anyone disenchanted with Melvin might be inclined to think the same thing you did, tending to be very cynical and prone to find fault with anything that remotely hints at something that supports their beefs. In other words, people often are going to hear what they want to hear regardless of their perspective. I listened with an open mind and I thought there were several solid & valid points to be taken from what he said.

[brewcrewdue80]

MNBrew,

 

You're probably right in that since I'm a bit burned on Melvin and some of the decisions that have either been or not been made, I'm hearing what I want to hear/and want to comment on it.

Can you give me the solid/valid points you took from the interview?

 

That find Discarded Pitching comment.

Homer Bailey wasn't discarded I don't recall currently if that was attached in the same breath to struggling young pitchers and developing.

I get the tactic to find these pitchers. But as to SPs I don't see him doing it. At least not this past offseason. They got Estrada in 2010. The easy find of this would have been Kevin Slowey a 2nd round pick attained by the Marlins for 750k. Who has a 3.59era in 11starts. Seeing as he played for the Twins the club should have had an idea who he was which was a former top 100 prospect with 3 straight double digit winning seasons before what must have been an elbow injury. He had some AAA starts to finish 2012. His signing would have fit that philosophy Melvin describes.

And the tactic can work. But, what I was getting to in my comment is that it feels he's not sold on the concept of drafting young pitching to develop in to aces. Rather, he's looking to find failed developed pitching but will seek them for serviceable potential. That would fall in to the lines of drafting College Pitchers over the HS pitchers, skipping a long enduring developmental stage for more readily/polished College Pitchers.

[MNBrew]

I just took that remark to mean that in times like these, a team like the Brewers sometimes has to get creative, whether due to lack of valuable-and-tradeable assets, limited other options, lack of New England or other major market teams' payrolls, or whatever.

 

It's quite late now & it was late when I listened to that interview last night, so I don't remember too many specifics. If I have time soon to re-listen to it, I'll gladly cite some things I thought were solid/valid. (That is to say, I'm not avoiding your other question.)

[Thurston Fluff]

Wait, so trading 1 or 2 of our MLB hitters for young impact pitchers automatically means we would have never been better than .500? Where's any factual, empirical, or historical evidence to support that notion?

 

Were is your evidence that teams were willing to give up young impact pitchers for 1 or 2 MLB hitters? If Fielder couldn't net us one what makes you think any others on our team would?

[Fear The Chorizo]

too many "potential" trades are being tossed around like they were all on Melvin's desk to make the call and he opted not too...it's a straw man argument to criticize a GM for hypothetical trade scenarios that weren't completed. Criticize him for the moves that were made and his overall approach to building the organization. The Brewers organization as a whole needs to be better at identifying and developing pitching talent, period. For the most part, the Brewers have swung and missed with many early round draft picks on pitching, they used minor league prospects to acquire major league pitching via trade with a high level of success. Getting hosed on draft pick compensation for losing CC stunk, but they got great return value for trading Greinke last year (2 pitching prospects and Segura) to replenish their farm system after it was gutted prior to the 2011 season.

 

bottom line, they need to hit on some draft picks the next two years in a big way, and they need to acquire some minor league talent by trading pieces off their current big league roster by the deadline.

[Oxy]

I haven't read much of this thread, but I can't imagine a whole lot of new territory is being breached that hasn't been discussed in the last year.

 

The way I see it, they only have two options-either continue with the "plugging holes" mentality of the last 5-7 years, or trade Ryan Braun.

 

Braun is the only contract on the team that would bring back enough quantity and quality in young prospects to actually be worth it. If Gomez and Segura are the real deal, we already have an OUTSTANDING young core at C, SS, and CF. We have Logan Schafer, a possible "replacement" for Braun. Aoki is fine. So, trade Braun and completely re-stock the starting rotation, or continue to make a Ramirez/Lohse type of signing every off-season.

 

Anything in-between those two options is just going to lengthen the mediocrity. We won't get much of a return for anybody except for Braun (and Gomez/Segura/Lucroy of course).

[paul253]

It just kills me that Melvin was willing to give away the 17th overall pick in the upcoming draft to sign Kyle Lohse. And here we are, a few days before the draft, sitting with the 3rd worst record in baseball. And Kyle Lohse? 1-6 with a 4.37 ERA and already missed a start with a sore elbow.

 

Doug Melvin's signing of Lohse was a panic move and it's coming back to bite him in a big way right now.

[Thurston Fluff]

Braun has a no trade clause which he is not likely to waive considering he signed it to be a Brewer for life.

Criticize him for the moves that were made and his overall approach to building the organization. The Brewers organization as a whole needs to be better at identifying and developing pitching talent, period. For the most part, the Brewers have swung and missed with many early round draft picks on pitching, they used minor league prospects to acquire major league pitching via trade with a high level of success.

 

IF we criticize his lack of success on drafting pitchers, which I agree with, he should get partial credit back for finding minor league players that can fill out a rotation. Narveson and Estrada weren't drafted by the Brewers but they were still discovered by the Brewers. Sometimes the minor league scouting is as important as the amateur scouting is. They knew Segura was a legit shortstop when most people thought he wasn't for example. That sort of thing helps cover the shortcomings in drafting. Our current or near future rotation is made up of almost exclusively of pitchers the Brewers either drafted or mined form the minor leagues. While that doesn't look good now I think given the relative age and experience level of them it is bound to improve. Not to mention they are still mining for more. I would rather have a guy who can do everything perfectly. I am realistic to settle for one who can compensate for his shortcomings by doing well in other areas.

[giffted1]

I haven't read much of this thread, but I can't imagine a whole lot of new territory is being breached that hasn't been discussed in the last year.

 

The way I see it, they only have two options-either continue with the "plugging holes" mentality of the last 5-7 years, or trade Ryan Braun.

 

Braun is the only contract on the team that would bring back enough quantity and quality in young prospects to actually be worth it. If Gomez and Segura are the real deal, we already have an OUTSTANDING young core at C, SS, and CF. We have Logan Schafer, a possible "replacement" for Braun. Aoki is fine. So, trade Braun and completely re-stock the starting rotation, or continue to make a Ramirez/Lohse type of signing every off-season.

 

Anything in-between those two options is just going to lengthen the mediocrity. We won't get much of a return for anybody except for Braun (and Gomez/Segura/Lucroy of course).

 

Is trading Braun even an option? I just can't see Attanasio allowing it.

 

I think "plugging holes" will be the course of action until Braun retires or signs somewhere else. It really won't be as bad as the prospect junkies try to make it seem. We have a very solid offensive core for the foreseeable future. Melvin has a knack for finding effective bullpen guys for a low cost. He overhauled the bullpen this past off season going from one of the worst to one of the better pens in the league so far. Even with some poor drafting, there's almost always a package of prospects in the system that would net a top of the rotation rental.

 

Combine all that with some progression to the mean and improvement for the under performing starting pitching we have right now and you've got yourself a couple playoff appearances over the next seven years. Nothing like the Dark Age of the 90's - early 2000's.

[Thurston Fluff]

It just kills me that Melvin was willing to give away the 17th overall pick in the upcoming draft to sign Kyle Lohse. And here we are, a few days before the draft, sitting with the 3rd worst record in baseball. And Kyle Lohse? 1-6 with a 4.37 ERA and already missed a start with a sore elbow.

 

Doug Melvin's signing of Lohse was a panic move and it's coming back to bite him in a big way right now.

 

I think you can thank our owner for that not Melvin.

[paul253]

It really won't be as bad as the prospect junkies try to make it seem. We have a very solid offensive core for the foreseeable future

And no depth. Two injuries to that solid offensive core and you have Alex Gonzalez and Yuniesky Bentancourt in your every day lineup. And that core is getting older and more injury plagued by the year. It's possible, if not likely, that the opening day 2014 lineup will have 5 players 30 years of age or older.

[Oxy]

It really won't be as bad as the prospect junkies try to make it seem. We have a very solid offensive core for the foreseeable future

And no depth. Two injuries to that solid offensive core and you have Alex Gonzalez and Yuniesky Bentancourt in your every day lineup. And that core is getting older and more injury plagued by the year. It's possible, if not likely, that the opening day 2014 lineup will have 5 players 30 years of age or older.

 

?? The core is Segura, Lucroy, Gomez and Braun--filling THE 3 most important positions on the field with young, above average talent (and possibility well above-average talent), along with a HOF caliber player in his prime. It really doesn't get a whole lot better than that as far as a core to build around. The starting pitching is bad, and is a big problem. That's really the only thing people can possibly complain about though.

[logan82]

It just kills me that Melvin was willing to give away the 17th overall pick in the upcoming draft to sign Kyle Lohse. And here we are, a few days before the draft, sitting with the 3rd worst record in baseball. And Kyle Lohse? 1-6 with a 4.37 ERA and already missed a start with a sore elbow.

 

Doug Melvin's signing of Lohse was a panic move and it's coming back to bite him in a big way right now.

 

I think you can thank our owner for that not Melvin.

Yeah, most indications were that Boras was in direct contact with Mark and Mark forced Melvin to sign him.

 

Combine all that with some progression to the mean and improvement for the under performing starting pitching we have right now and you've got yourself a couple playoff appearances over the next seven years. Nothing like the Dark Age of the 90's - early 2000's.

I expect some improvement but it definitely is not a given. Peralta has had 2 years in a row he started out with poor control. There were quite a few people who thought Fiers was getting by on smoke an mirrors. Estrada seems ok but he has HR issues that are probably magnified by pitching in Miller Park. Gallardo had a drop in velocity between 2011 and 2012 and isn't exactly pitching well this year. Narveson has had a couple elbow issues is getting older(32 in December) and wasn't really great to begin with. Lohse has been good but again he is older. This rotation could turn it around and be decent next year but I think it more likely all of them get worse next year except Peralta.

[3and2Fastball]

If the season ended today the Brewers would have the #3 overall pick in the 2014 draft. That is something to be excited about

[paul253]

If the season ended today the Brewers would have the #3 overall pick in the 2014 draft. That is something to be excited about

 

The Brewers will go on some kind of meaningless late season run just like they did last year and move up to the 15th pick. Mark and Doug will take this as a positive sign and that all we need is another 34 year old veteran pitcher to put us over the top.

[The stache]

IF we criticize his lack of success on drafting pitchers, which I agree with, he should get partial credit back for finding minor league players that can fill out a rotation.

 

Oh, hogwash. I could find minor league players to fill out the rotation.

[narwhalattack]

If the season ended today the Brewers would have the #3 overall pick in the 2014 draft. That is something to be excited about

 

The Brewers will go on some kind of meaningless late season run just like they did last year and move up to the 15th pick. Mark and Doug will take this as a positive sign and that all we need is another 34 year old veteran pitcher to put us over the top.

 

Or even better: They'll try desperately to make a quick fix so that if they can't sign a 34 year old guy that will lose them a draft pick, they'll draft a guy that's like Jungmann and they'll laud him about his ability to contribute to the majors quickly and his "feel" for the game, despite his lack of ceiling.

[PrinceFielderx1]

IF we criticize his lack of success on drafting pitchers, which I agree with, he should get partial credit back for finding minor league players that can fill out a rotation.

 

Oh, hogwash. I could find minor league players to fill out the rotation.

 

Is there a reason why Jimmy Nelson isn't on the 40 man roster and Mike Fiers is? It doesn't make any sense to me at all. Just thinking about it makes me wonder what the Brewers front office is doing. Mike Fiers is getting way too much TLC from the front office.

[TheCrew07]

It really won't be as bad as the prospect junkies try to make it seem.

Prospect junkies? Nice. Mud slinging in the place of intelligent conversation. Right. On.

 

Even with some poor drafting, there's almost always a package of prospects in the system that would net a top of the rotation rental.

 

Combine all that with some progression to the mean and improvement for the under performing starting pitching we have right now and you've got yourself a couple playoff appearances over the next seven years.

Let me jump for joy at the prospect of making the post season twice in the next 7 years with the current regime in place. Why would I want to be competitive every year when I could have that and a maxed out payroll to look forward to?

[LouisEly]

Sparky (one of the hosts who is on vacation) texted in a question to ask. It was about Carlos Rodon. Melvin says "I don't remember the name."

 

It's comforting to know that our GM does not recognize the name of the likely 1st overall pick in next year's draft. Particularly when he himself (Melvin) drafted him in the 16th round a few years ago.

 

1) I hope right now our GM is focusing his time, effort, and energy on the players eligible for the 2013 MLB amateur draft as well as acquiring other available talent for the organization and spending absolutely no time, effort, and energy worrying about amateurs who are not eligible for the 2013 draft until after the 2013 MLB draft is over.

 

B) My understanding is that the GM is usually only involved with picks in the first two rounds of the draft (like how Melvin overruled Jack Z. and drafted Gallardo instead of the guy Jack Z's recommended), and that the 3rd round and on is usually the responsibility of the amateur scouting department and their recommendations because beyond the first two rounds there are way too many players for a GM to scout personally in addition to his primary responsibility which is the major league club and minor league organization. Chances are Rodon was a recommendation of the scouting department if they asked him if he would sign for 4th round slot and picked him again in the 16th round.

 

Now that being said, I sure hope the Brewers amateur scouting department knows who Rodon is and I'm pretty sure they have him on their radar.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Should Hellweg and Nelson continue to pitch well in the minors they will be called up this year at some point, and they have the potential to be really good. That could potentially really help to improve our SP staff. It will also likely make a pitcher or two expendable in a trade at mid-season like Estrada, and Fiers days are numbered until he's out of the rotation for good anyways.

[vegasbrewcrew1993]

hypothetically...how much do you guys think we could get for braun? do you guys think it could be a herschel walker type of deal?

[MNBrew]

IF we criticize his lack of success on drafting pitchers, which I agree with, he should get partial credit back for finding minor league players that can fill out a rotation.

 

Oh, hogwash. I could find minor league players to fill out the rotation.

Now that's hogwash or else you're a professional scout.

 

Narveson wasn't spectacular but was quite serviceable for a couple years prior to these last 2 major injuries & Estrada's developed into a very solid find. The key is finding players who 1) are available and then who 2) have enough upside that they're worth acquiring in spite of lousy enough performances that their current organization is willing to let 'em go, and who 3) turn out to be league-average or better major league SPs.

 

Every GM has some successes, but I think Melvin's got a better track record than the majority of GMs.

[MNBrew]

Sparky (one of the hosts who is on vacation) texted in a question to ask. It was about Carlos Rodon. Melvin says "I don't remember the name."

 

It's comforting to know that our GM does not recognize the name of the likely 1st overall pick in next year's draft. Particularly when he himself (Melvin) drafted him in the 16th round a few years ago.

I just saw this on MLBtraderumors.com and thought it was relevant & timely given the above:

 

Twins GM Terry Ryan discusses the role of general managers in the draft in an interview with 1500ESPN's Phil Mackey. GMs generally get credit or blame for their draft picks, but other front office personnel may be more responsible for those picks. "My role would be to take the blame when we don't do well, but I also get the praise when we do well. That's not fair," says Ryan. For example, Ryan discusses his role in the selection of Ben Revere, the No. 28 overall pick in the 2007 Draft. "That's a pick that I got praise for I think at the time. I didn't have anything to do with Ben Revere. (Our scouts) did. They all had seen him a lot. I get the praise. 'Good pick, there you go Terry.' Hell, I never even saw (Revere)."

[The stache]

IF we criticize his lack of success on drafting pitchers, which I agree with, he should get partial credit back for finding minor league players that can fill out a rotation.

 

Oh, hogwash. I could find minor league players to fill out the rotation.

Now that's hogwash or else you're a professional scout.

 

Narveson wasn't spectacular but was quite serviceable for a couple years prior to these last 2 major injuries & Estrada's developed into a very solid find. The key is finding players who 1) are available and then who 2) have enough upside that they're worth acquiring in spite of lousy enough performances that their current organization is willing to let 'em go, and who 3) turn out to be league-average or better major league SPs.

 

Every GM has some successes, but I think Melvin's got a better track record than the majority of GMs.

 

Yes, Doug Melvin's one post season series win in 26 years as an assistant general manager or general manager is a benchmark that other general managers in the Majors aspire to attain, I'm sure.

 

We have the third worst pitching staff in all of MLB baseball by ERA, and if I cared to break down numbers for starting rotations, I'd wager that we have the worst rotation in the game, or very, very close to it. I'm not a professional scout, but I guarantee you if you gave me Doug Melvin's resources, I could put together rotational replacements that were at the bare minimum on par with those guys he's got in place now. He is a terrible judge of pitching talent. That's been proven.