Sellers at the Trade Deadline [Designated 2013 General Brewers Trade Rumor/Idea Thread (please see post #162)]

[chadomac]

I don't think anyone would trade Gomez straight up for one prospect - no matter how promising. If you would, you'd be a bad GM in my opinion.

 

Gomez is proven at this point. No matter how many people want to project Profar as a star - it is very possible that he will never be a star in the major leagues. You can say that about any prospect... they just don't pan out a lot of the time... and that's why you should get at least 2 upper prospects when trading a proven star like Gomez.

[chadomac]

Yeah, this deadline will be disappointing much like I predicted. Not being willing to trade Aoki is incredibly stupid. Sounds like the bids on Lohse and Gallardo just aren't good enough, which is fine. They can wait until the offseason to trade one or both of them. Not being willing to trade Aoki is so dumb though, and not getting offers on the relievers is discouraging.

 

Definitely. I thought we would definitely be able to get something of value for Aoki/reliever or Axford/Gonzalez.

 

Gallardo you should just keep anyway. If people think he's a 4/5 then he's worth more to us as a possible bounceback pitcher next year. Starting pitching is what we desperately need, so I wouldn't move Lohse unless it was a ridiculous return.

 

Doug doesn't ever tell us anything before it happens, though. So I still fully expect to see 2 reliever trades by tomorrow... I just don't know if we'll get much of anything for either of them.

[gregmag]

To play devil's advocate on Aoki: He's amazingly cheap next year, and his skill set makes him unlikely to decline quickly. DM's right that the usual play is to deal deadline guys in their FA year, not the year before; I suspect the market may not value the extra year of control fully. We do have guys who could fill RF, but in this case they aren't a whole lot cheaper than the incumbent. They are younger with more team control, and I'd like to see more of them. If the Brewers get Gindl and a Davis or two enough PAs that they know what they have, I won't be too put out by the OF situation.

 

The notion of keeping Lohse and especially Gonzalez I don't understand, but I think DM's words were "I'm not motivated," which is often DM-speak for "He's available for the right price." The line in that report that disturbs me is "teams have to make offers." I get that DM doesn't want to be overeager, but I hope he has a strategy for making deals happen. Not trading Lohse would be less than optimal; not trading Gonzalez (and maybe Axford) would be indefensible.

[brewmann04]

Loshe is our best pitcher now and don't think he going to move him for Garbage.

I like to see enough AB for Gindl,Davis and Schaffer to see what they can do.

[brewmann04]

Loshe is our best pitcher now and don't think he going to move him for Garbage.

I like to see enough AB for Gindl,Davis and Schaffer to see what they can do.

[paul253]

I like to see enough AB for Gindl,Davis and Schaffer to see what they can do.

 

Good luck. Because of Melvin and Roenecke's complete unwillingness to play younger players, even in seasons that are in the tank, there is all of one spot for those three to fight for. Roenecke won't sit Gomez and he won't sit Aoki.

 

This season is a complete disaster and I think we need to start pointing the finger at Doug Melvin. It will be official in two days but it doesn't look like any more moves are coming, either because DM is asking for too much or because he's holding onto this pipe dream that he can throw the same ole team out there next season and everything will be fine. This despite the fact that we have capable replacements for certain players (Aoki) and others may not even be with the team next season (Gonzalez, Axford.....though I have no doubt DM will pay him $6 million next year to be a setup guy). Other guys like Henderson could return a nice player but Melvin won't move the soon to be 31 year old reliever because he is cheap. And I think the fact that Lohse isn't even being mentioned in trade rumors shows that either Melvin is asking for way too much in return or simply doesn't want to trade him.

 

People will point to the playoff runs in 2008 and 2011 as evidence that he helped turned the franchise around. And yes clearly he did bring some success to the franchise. But this is now his 11th season as Milwaukee's GM. In these 11 season's the Brewers finished above .500 a meager four times, two of which we only 4 games over. The two playoff runs were built on the backs of star pitchers he traded for and who left almost as fast as they came. He and his scouts have still yet to develop one successful starting pitcher outside of Gallardo (lack of pitching success was his downfall in Texas too IIRC). Meanwhile he absolutely refuses to give his young players a shot unless they are top prospects (Braun, Fielder, Weeks) or there is no other option (Hardy, Lucroy, Escobar, Segura).

 

I have been down on Melvin for a for a while now but the lack of activity at the trade deadline in a season where they have the 4th worst record in baseball just solidifies that position for me. I apologize for the rant.

[Kelbysdaddy]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/07/royals-discussed-kendrick-beckham-weeks.html#disqus_thread

 

if the royals are at all interested in weeks, doug had better be on the phone. take an A-ball pitcher and run!

[craigharmann]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/07/royals-discussed-kendrick-beckham-weeks.html#disqus_thread

 

if the royals are at all interested in weeks, doug had better be on the phone. take an A-ball pitcher and run!

 

Do they have decent third base prospects? Either that or whatever pitching you can get back. At this point, anything is good.

[LouisEly]

It has been stated that because Gallardo and Lohse have annual salaries less than a qualifying offer they may have more trade value after the season than at the deadline. IF that's the case then you can't fault Melvin for not pulling the trigger, especially if all that's being offered is a couple of guys with low ceilings who don't project to be much more than replacement level. Hold on and wait until the offseason when you can get a better offer.

 

Now that there are pool limits and penalties for going over draft and international bonus pool limits, salary dumping doesn't make much sense because you can't funnel those salaries toward developmental prospects. No sense selling low on anyone; if nothing but crap is being offered, then wait until you can get something of value being offered.

 

No one knows what DM is being offered, if anything, for Axford, Gonzalez, Lohse, etc. I highly doubt he is turning down Top-100 prospects left and right because he thinks he can compete next year. He has said that any trades he makes will be to help the team "2-3 years down the road". If a trade can't help the team down the road, no sense in making it.

[gregmag]

Yeah, that's all right. As to the relievers, I just don't think it would take much to exceed their value to a last-place team. If Mike Gonzalez can get you any kind of even fringe prospect, I think you deal him; same with Axford, although he's probably scared everyone away at this point. It's also possible that the Delmonico trade set up unreasonable expectations; Bbut like I said, I'm not looking for world-beaters in exchange for bullpen guys.

 

Your point about the starters is interesting. I think trading Gallardo is a bad idea at this point anyway, but if your premise is right, then maybe there's an affirmative reason to expect a bigger return for Lohse in the offseason. Monty, I think (sorry if I'm remembering wrong), made the opposite argument, that the rest of this season may be the most attractive part of Lohse's contract. I don't know how GMs think, so I don't know who's right.

[brewmann04]

well we see tomorrow what happens with the Brewers with the trade deadline.I have thoughts that i maybe dissapointed tomorrow but hope Dm has something up his sleeve

[splitterpfj]

Gregmag, assuming Lohse is healthy at season's end, he may be quite appealing to GMs. He'll have 22 million left, over two years, which is cheaper than you could sign a comparable free agent, and the qualifying offer to keep a guy for one year is expected to exceed 14 million.

 

With his track record, and his contract, he may be a plus option for teams over free agents.

 

The same is true for Gallardo, but given the season he's having, I can't see teams offering a whole lot, so I'd expect to see him back here to start the season, barring a strong finish this season.

[chewy522]

I think we need to temper the arguments about firing DM based on inaction. Remember, last year we got a haul for Greinke. He obviously knows how to drive up prices for players he is shopping. However, when you attempt to get a big haul, you also run the risk of making no deal or letting others deal before you. This is a risk vs. reward dynamic. I'm sure he will settle at the deadline for any offer for Gonzalez, but for everybody else, it appears as if DM is playing his hand tight and waiting for a big haul. This seems to be his MO, and just like any strategy, it has both strengths and weaknesses.

[logan82]

He gets this offseason and that's it. If he foolishly holds onto everybody and tries to compete next year he should be fired.

[PeaveyFury]

I think if he holds on to everybody its not his call, it's Mark A's. I think we've seen enough quotes/comments/history from Mark suggesting that it may be him that's unwilling to punt on a year.

 

Obviously, that's a significant potential distinction. You can fire a GM, but not an owner. Right, Herb Kohl?

[JohnBriggs12]

If the Brewers don't trade John Axford I will be the first to call for Melvin's job.

 

Axford's value is low right now. The Brewers will likely non-tender him this winter, and they will either bring him back at a lower salary or he'll sign elsewhere for significantly less than he'd get in arbitration. So I don't agree Melvin's job is on the line if he isn't dealt.

[brewmann04]

Melvin safe i believe for one more season.

[JohnBriggs12]

Melvin safe i believe for one more season.

 

I agree he's year to year, which is why you won't see a dismantling of the team, and you will see effort put in to contend in 2014. If it comes to the point where a complete rebuild is the clear option, that will be the job of the next GM. Melvin's not going to embark on that now at age 61. In fact, he's more likely to step down voluntarily if he sees that's there's no other option.

[logan82]

I think if he holds on to everybody its not his call, it's Mark A's. I think we've seen enough quotes/comments/history from Mark suggesting that it may be him that's unwilling to punt on a year.

 

Obviously, that's a significant potential distinction. You can fire a GM, but not an owner. Right, Herb Kohl?

If it is Mark A. that would be very unfortunate. With a new GM we can have hope that things will change. With the owner being the problem all we can expect is continuity. I would really hate to have years like this year with only the potential to be mediocre.

 

I hope if it is Attanasio he is a faster learner than Kohl.

[PrinceEatMeat]

I don't blame Melvin for this. I blame Mark A. He seems like an owner who wants to try to compete every year. Heck, he's even flat out said that. The Lohse signing that he engineered is one sign, and not allowing certain moves to happen at the deadline is another. There's still the offseason, where some trades could happen, but it's starting to look like they'll try to compete again.

[JohnBriggs12]

I don't blame Melvin for this. I blame Mark A. He seems like an owner who wants to try to compete every year. Heck, he's even flat out said that. The Lohse signing that he engineered is one sign, and not allowing certain moves to happen at the deadline is another. There's still the offseason, where some trades could happen, but it's starting to look like they'll try to compete again.

 

You'd rather have an owner content with endless rebuilds? That's a strange business model if you ask me. One way a GM can keep his job is to convince his owner that all these kids he's picked up are one day going to pay off. How many years was Ned Yost given a pass because the roster wasn't good only to find out the guy couldn't manage a talented team either? Perhaps you can make a case that a rebuild is necessary, but a case can easily be made that just as strong if not stronger that when healthy, this is a pretty talented roster. They aren't unloading the young talent they have now. That will continue to progress and develop. They'll likely have a top 7 or 8 draft pick in 2014.

 

The only reason they are getting away with this in Chicago is the reputation of Theo Epstein and the allure of Wrigley Field and its surrounding establishments. I'm not sure they are any closer than when Theo took over. Who's Theo Epstein in the Brewer organization?

[Oldcity]

This is so frustrating. It is clear to anyone outside of the Brewers organization that the team will not compete next year. The Reds, Pirates, Cardinals, and now Cubs are all on the upswing, and they even all have better farm systems. It's insane to not deal Aoki and Lohse, and at minimum two more relievers should be traded too. The Brewers could really capitalize and put themselves in good position for 2-3 years from now, but instead they'll go year-to-year and this will be the foreseeable future.

 

The Brewers are turning into the Bucks.

[JohnBriggs12]

This is so frustrating. It is clear to anyone outside of the Brewers organization that the team will not compete next year. The Reds, Pirates, Cardinals, and now Cubs are all on the upswing, and they even all have better farm systems. It's insane to not deal Aoki and Lohse, and at minimum two more relievers should be traded too. The Brewers could really capitalize and put themselves in good position for 2-3 years from now, but instead they'll go year-to-year and this will be the foreseeable future.

 

The Brewers are turning into the Bucks.

 

I'm fairly certain Aoki didn't bring the significant offers they hoped he would. That could well happen in the offseason. If all he can bring in a middling prospect, how is that going to make a difference? Lohse isn't going anywhere either. If he continues to pitch well next year and the team is out of it, his value in the trade market might be higher than it is now as teams would be taking on less money. The Cubs aren't winning anything other than the admiration of Baseball America. Big deal The Pirates are where they are in large part because of two veteran FA starters, A. J. Burnett and Francisco Liriano (who I advocated strongly for the Brewers to sign last winter) and another shrewd FA pickup, Russell Martin, not because they've developed a plethora of great young talent all blooming at once. Their lineup is solid but not in any way is it far superior to a healthy Brewer lineup. As for St. Louis, lets see how they do without the guy I consider the most valuable player in the league the last 10 years, Yadier Molina.

 

The Bucks never had top talent. The Brewers still do.

[Oldcity]

 

Lohse isn't going anywhere either. If he continues to pitch well next year and the team is out of it, his value in the trade market might be higher than it is now as teams would be taking on less money.

 

This is exactly what they did with Aramis Ramirez last year when they could have actually gotten something meaningful for him. How is that decision working out now?

 

Lohse is fairly risky at his age. He could fall to injury or just regression with his age. He has good value right now, as he's currently pitching better than any other SP on the market.

 

The Brewers continuously hold on to players 1-2 years too long. For once, I'd love them to trade someone at peak value--but of course, they won't.

[TheCrew07]

You'd rather have an owner content with endless rebuilds

 

Yes, of course, because that's the nature of professional sports. You have to constantly turn over your roster to remain competitive or players get old, expensive, and unproductive which then forces a full blown rebuild.

 

There's a wide gulf between reloading (turning over a roster) and rebuilding, the 2 concepts are completely disimilar the fact of which is apparently is still escaping some.

 

If we end up in a full rebuild I'll be completely pissed because it wasn't necessary or inevitable, poor roster management decisions would have led to that point and I honestly don't care if it's MA or DM. Both guys have repeatedly said they are on the same page, I don't think you can fault one over the other for the state of the franchise.

 

I much prefer Mark A. to the Seligs, but if he's going to meddle and take a narrow view focused on just on the MLB team year in and year out, then we can do better than him as well, just like we can do better than Melvin. We're a little fish in a big pond and need to operate accordingly in order to maintain the talent level of the organization and by extension the MLB club year in and year out.