Sellers at the Trade Deadline [Designated 2013 General Brewers Trade Rumor/Idea Thread (please see post #162)]

[3and2Fastball]

Yes, I know it is early, but I think there is a strong chance the Brewers will be out of it at the trade deadline and be able to be sellers .....

 

Is there anyone outside of Braun, Segura, Lohse, Gomez you would refuse to trade? Lucroy maybe? Peralta since he's cost-controlled

 

Can the Brewers even get anything of significance for Gallardo, Hart, Weeks, Ramirez, Axford (yeah right, as if), Betancourt, Aoki, K-Rod?

 

Would the Brewers even be willing to trade guys that they see as significant pieces like Gallardo, Weeks, Hart, Ramirez?

[TooLiveBrew]

I'd trade anyone for the right price, but realistically speaking would probably not be inclined to move Braun or Segura. I would definitely move Lohse if the situation presented itself.

 

But to your last question, I highly doubt that Melvin is going to move guys like Gallardo, Weeks, & Ramírez. If he could get anything for guys like Betancourt & González, I hope he'd jump at the chance.

[jerichoholicninja]

Gallardo and Aoki are the only ones that would bring back anything worthwhile in return. Maybe Ramirez or Hart if he comes back blazing hot. Gallardo is clearly the best trade chip outside of Braun and Segura.

[monty57]

I agree with TLB. The likely scenario is that we will either be "close enough" that we'll pick up a minor piece (Hairston-type trade), or we'll be far enough out of it that we'll trade away a minor piece (one/both of the Gonzalezes and/or Betancourt) or we dump Hart for a minor prospect and $5MM in savings. As much as I might like it, I don't see much more than that happening.

 

That said:

 

Melvin's m.o. is to only trade away guys who are in their final year, which would mean Hart. Unfortunately, new news says that Hart may not be back until mid-June, which would only give him a month or so to perform prior to the trade deadline. A guy who is good, but not great, who is coming off two knee injuries with limited time to prove himself, who only has another few months of "team control" is not going to return much on the trade market. If we are out of it, we may just trade him for a minor prospect and salary savings, as we aren't getting anything for him if he leaves via free agency anyways.

 

I could see the Dodgers making a bid for Ramirez again. The last I heard, their pitchers were outhitting their third basemen, so they may be desparate. They don't have a really strong farm system, but they have two Top 100 guys in Puig (OF) and Lee (RHP) who could make for an inticing offer, since we'd also save $25MM or so.

 

If the Brewers think Khris Davis is a starting MLB outfielder, and if they're willing to move Braun to RF, Aoki could bring back a good package in trade. He's now a proven leadoff hitter signed to a cheap deal, with four+ years of team control remaining. The reasons we might not want to trade him away are the reasons he would be very tradeable. Again, don't see it happening, but with Schafer, Davis and Gindl all MLB-ready, it could make sense (we're not trading Braun or Gomez).

 

There is a whole thread dedicated to Gallardo, and while I don't think Melvin will trade him, I think he could bring back a return similar to the Shields-to-KC deal. That would be a Top 10 and another Top 100 prospect, or probably a couple of Top 50 guys. He's our most valueable trading chip that has any chance of being traded (even if it's a very slim chance).

 

There is also a thread regarding trading Lohse. I don't think there's any chance Melvin will trade him, and I don't think he'd bring back a lot in trade, but if we could get the value of the first rounder we gave up for him, I'd make the trade.

 

If we think some of the minor leaguers are going to be MLB-ready next year, and we don't trade Yo or Lohse, then there is an outside chance that Estrada will be dealt either this season or in the offseason. He's 30 and has two remaining years of arby ($1.955 this year). Like most Brewers starters, he's been knocked around this year, but has a decent track record as a starter over the past couple of years, so he may bring back something in trade, and may be the "odd man out" if some of our prospects step us.

 

Axford's not bringing back anything. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Melvin doesn't offer him arby next year to save the $7-8MM he'll cost in arbitration. Weeks is also non-tradeable at this point. We're going to have to play him and hope he "finds it," and if he doesn't, then eventually we'll have to cut bait, eat his salary, and start someone else.

 

I guess there's a chance one of the catchers could get traded, but I don't think it'll happen. It's not a bad thing to have two MLB-caliber catchers on the team, and I don't see anyone knocking on the door that could even be a serviceable backup, which would allow us to trade one of Lucroy or Maldonado.

[TheCrew07]

I'm always open to trade anyone, my untouchable list is pretty small... Braun, Segura, and maybe Gallardo. Yo used to be firmly on that list but with his velocity slipping and his control waning over the last 2 years I'd be okay letting him go for the proper package.

 

As a general rule I'm not into quantity deals, I'd rather get back one 1 legit prospect than 2 or 3 so-so guys. As always I'd be looking for impact pitching less than 2 years away from MLB but if the organizations don't match-up from a pitching standpoint I'd certainly take the best positional prospect available. On the IF SS is the only position we have locked up with any longevity and in the OF Braun is the only player under team control more than 3 seasons. Well technically Aoki is as well, but he's already 31 and I'm not sure he'll ever be an .800+ OPS type guy. He's certainly productive, but replaceable. I've posted many times that I'm not a huge Gomez fan and don't trust him, but the longer this streak goes, the easier it is to believe that he's finally arrived. If someone was going to give us a Shields' type package for him I'd seriously considering moving him as well.

 

The farm system has Adequate OF depth after last year's draft, and I really like Tyrone Taylor as a CF while Mitch Haniger has the positional flexibility to play any OF position. We're short on impact pitching and the corner IF so if it was possible I would prioritize by said positions.

 

There's no need to trade players just to trade players but if the right package is out there, why not? The organization can say what they want about another hot streak but if the ship doesn't right itself immediately this road trip could be disastrous coupled with the 4 game sweep at home by the Cards. If we lose the next 2 series I'm just not sure the ship is rightable, a 2-12 stretch vs division opponents might a hole dug too deep and it's only mid May. I hate to say it but the 4 games against the Pirates might well be the season. If we win the next 2 series we'd at least be 5-9 over that 14 game stretch which is still terrible but the door would still be open.

 

The 9 game winning streak came largely at the expense of the 2 of the worst teams in the NL, sweeping the Giants was an accomplishment but we don't have another stretch against that kind of competition until immediately following the All-Star game. I just don't see the Brewers ripping off another long winning streak. For example who knows what we'll get from the Marlins with all those young players, especially if they call-up Yelich, the speculation of which only keeps gaining steam. Ozuna is already up and hitting well if they add Yelich all of a sudden Miami's OF would be pretty stellar. Their IF would still be underwhelming, but their pitching has been surprisingly decent, at any rate with Ozuna and Yelich they certainly wouldn't be as bad as they were a month ago from a talent standpoint.

 

Getting Hart back will help, but Yuni B and Gomez have essentially covered what we thought we'd be missing from him while he was gone anyway. Yuni is showing signs of finally returning to the Yuni we know and love to hate, so Hart would be a slight upgrade from Yuni's current season stat line. If Gomez keeps hitting the offense will be potent but the pitching is still the wild card. I think Peralta will be up and down all year, he hasn't necessarily pitched bad, but the results have been poor, I believe he will continue to progress. I have a hard time believing Lohse is a low 3 ERA pitcher and I was never high on Estrada or Narveson, I'm just not sure our starting pitching is going to be good enough unless some of the younger pitchers in AA and AAA come up and solidify the rotation like Thornburg, Hellweg, or Nelson... but I'm not sure any of that trio will be advanced enough to come up and permanently stick, we might be a year away on those guys yet.

 

I allowed myself a sliver of hope for Rogers after last season but I'm no longer holding out any hope for him as a starter. He was going to have to get by being effectively wild but he can't stay healthy and lost 5 MPH on his FB over the winter, and I'm sure the 2 issues are related.

 

If we could land a couple more advanced high ceiling pitching prospects plus an impact IF type I'd feel pretty good about any possible trades made. Melvin surprised me by making the Greinke trade last year, I've been in rare territory with him supporting that trade, but I'd like to see a couple more moves along that same line to solidify our future. Again, I'm not suggesting trades just to dump salary, I'd be looking to acquire meaningful talent at positions of need or I'd want Melvin to walk away from the deal. If a team is only offering OF prospects why would we want to make that trade given that's a MLB and organizational strength for the Brewers? That would be a trade Melvin should walk away from as we have organizational needs at 3B, 2B, and 1B in the near future (arguably now in the case of 2B), for me to take an OF prospect it would have to be someone like Taveras and there's no way STL is trading him within the division or at all.

[Warning Track Power]

I could see the Dodgers making a bid for Ramirez again. The last I heard, their pitchers were outhitting their third basemen, so they may be desparate. They don't have a really strong farm system, but they have two Top 100 guys in Puig (OF) and Lee (RHP) who could make for an inticing offer, since we'd also save $25MM or so.

If Dee Gordon hits at just .265-.275 clip, the Dodgers will start him at SS and Hanley at 3B once Hanley returns from the DL. I just don't see how that team with its difficulties scoring runs can possibly sit a guy who hits .270 and could steal upwards of 60-70 bases. Put another way, if Gordon produces like that, there is no way the Dodgers give up anything like Puig or Lee for Ramirez and would only do so if Ramirez could be had on the cheap.

[adambr2]

Like others, no one is "untouchable" to me, I just consider that limiting yourself. However, my "would have to be blown away" list would include Braun, Segura, Lucroy, and Gomez.

 

In a selling situation, I definitely wouldn't refuse to trade Lohse, or even Gallardo.

 

I'm just not sure that we really have any good fits after Gallardo for a sell. There's no one in the pen worth anything of value. Lohse and Ramirez could possibly have value, but with their backloaded deals I'd be surprised if we didn't have to eat at least a pretty good portion of their remaining contracts in a trade.

 

Unless Hart just kills it for 2 months, he's probably not going to have a ton of value as a rental. Under the new CBA, I'm not sure whether or not Hart is in line to bring back compensation -- if so, that pick might be worth more than anything we get for him in late July.

 

I feel really good about most of the core we have to build around in the lineup -- Braun, Gomez, Segura, and even Lucroy. I think we might have 3 elite players in the lineup with the first 3. The problem is that we have so, so far to go with pitching, and I don't feel we're really close there yet. We do need desperately to add high ceiling pitching prospects. I know people want to be excited about Thornburg, Hellweg, Pena, Nelson, Jungmann, Bradley, etc, but frankly, this is not a list full of high ceiling guys, and I'd be happy to end up with a couple back of the rotation starters and some relief help among the bunch.

[ewitkows]

I'd trade Henderson also. I just don't trust these guys who've bounced around and all of a sudden put up great numbers. See if we can sell high on him.

[Roderick]

There's no one in the pen worth anything of value. Lohse and Ramirez could possibly have value, but with their backloaded deals I'd be surprised if we didn't have to eat at least a pretty good portion of their remaining contracts in a trade.

 

Exactly. If the Brewers are out of it by mid-year, I would be happy to trade ARam for nothing. The Brewers sucked his value of his contract dry last year. So if someone does pick up his contract and the $16M owed for 2014, they definitely aren't giving the Brewers anything back for prospects. And I hope the Brewers don't pay too big of a chunk just to get a prospect unless he plays 3B.

 

Lohse contract isn't backloaded (at least how I read it). The $7M deferred from this years pay would still be on the Brewers to pay in 2016-8 (it is still earned this year, just paid later). The $11M per year for two more years, wouldn't scare off half the teams. So assuming he is pitching decent up to the trading deadline, he would have value.

[trwi7]

I'd trade Henderson also. I just don't trust these guys who've bounced around and all of a sudden put up great numbers. See if we can sell high on him.

 

Great point. Teams are always looking for bullpen help at the trade deadline and since Henderson is cheap and will be for another year or two, he'll be an attractive trade chip to contenders. Plus he has closer experience™.

[logan82]

On the IF SS is the only position we have locked up with any longevity

If we could get back a good SS I don't think that would be bad at all.

[TheCrew07]

I don't really think Gomez should be considered untouchable, off the top of my head a couple of organizations with WS aspirations jump out at me. If someone like Nationals would want to make a WS run and give us Anthony Rendon (who's blocked at 3B and can play 2B) + whatever for Gomez I would seriously consider that deal. San Fran needs a CF and has a ton of young pitching that's a bit farther away than I would like but if they offered some combination of Crick/Stratton/Kickham/Hembree Melvin should at least have to consider it.

 

I would highly doubt that Melvin would trade Gomez after extending him, in fact I would put the chances arond 5%, but he's just hitting his peak both in terms of age and production, he would bring in a very good return.

 

I guess my bottom line would be without the pitching what does the rest matter? We've been going down the same road since 2006, we know where it leads, time to find a different approach.

 

edit. I agree logan, could always move one of the players to 2B.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'd trade Henderson also. I just don't trust these guys who've bounced around and all of a sudden put up great numbers. See if we can sell high on him.

 

Great point. Teams are always looking for bullpen help at the trade deadline and since Henderson is cheap and will be for another year or two, he'll be an attractive trade chip to contenders. Plus he has closer experience™.

I agree, good call on Henderson, ewitkows. I almost included him in my post, but left him out since he's still very cheap. However, that cheap salary may enhance what you could get for him.

[TURBO]

Lohse is FAR from untouchable. He shouldn't be on that list.

[paul253]

I could sit here and talk about who I'd like to see moved. But we all know Melvin. He won't trade Gallardo. He won't trade Lohse. He won't trade Ramirez. All three of them are needed to "compete" next season. Weeks' value will probably be too low for him to be traded. Hart may be moved but he'll only have a month or so to prove himself. Plus, with his upcoming FA status and the new c.b. rules which won't allow the trading team compensation if he leaves he may not fetch much either. If anything, Melvin will trade a few relievers (Gorzelany, Gonzalez), maybe a Betancourt or a Alex Gonzalez and get nothing significant in return.

 

The only other I scenario I can see playing out is the Brewers being about 5-6 games out of the final wild card spot and Melvin trading guys like Schafer and Khris Davis for a backup infielder and a reliever.

[nate82]

I wish the Giants would have caved and gave up Bumgarner for Hart. Funny that they gave up Wheeler for a half a year of Beltran and no comp pick but wouldnt give up Bumgarner for a half a year of Hart plus a comp pick. Frustrating a little as Bumgarner would be an awesome #1 over Gallardo.

[I Heart Brewers]

I wish the Giants would have caved and gave up Bumgarner for Hart. Funny that they gave up Wheeler for a half a year of Beltran and no comp pick but wouldnt give up Bumgarner for a half a year of Hart plus a comp pick. Frustrating a little as Bumgarner would be an awesome #1 over Gallardo.

 

I get the frustration. But you could look at it like, if the Brewers traded Hart for Bumgarner then they probably would have had the horses last year and not traded Greinke at the deadline. Meaning no Segura.

 

They have who they have so focusing on that keeps me from playing that game. It's usually not as cut and dried as, 'if we had player X, then Y'.

[JohnBriggs12]

A guy who could have real value at the deadline is Aoki. Contenders out there with trouble in the leadoff spot might value him very highly. Now I love what he brings to the Brewers, but for the right deal, they should listen. Aoki is a guy they might be able to bundle Weeks with too. Suppose a team covets Aoki but is reluctant to give up much in return. Well see if they'll also take Weeks and his contract in the deal.

[TheCrew07]

They have who they have so focusing on that keeps me from playing that game. It's usually not as cut and dried as, 'if we had player X, then Y'.

 

Sure you can, but it's not just about Segura because then we'd have Odorizzi, Escobar, and Cain. Odorizzi would be in the rotation for us, we'd still have an excellent defender at SS in Escobar, Lohse wouldn't be around, and we'd still have a 1st round pick this season... and the domino effect goes on and on.

 

Picking up Segura who everyone apparently undervalued doesn't justify continually trading for short term pitching. We're as fortunate to have Segura as we are to have Aoki who Milwaukee didn't even scout. I'm thrilled to have Segura, I have no issues with flipping Greinke, I just wouldn't have targeted him, Marcum, or Sabathia in the first place.

 

Having made different moves we'd certainly have a different team than we do now but I have a hard time believing we'd be worse off from a pitching standpoint, in fact I think we'd actually be better all the way around.

 

I know people valued the playoff appearance in 2008 or think that Melvin made the only moves he could but I just don't feel that way.

[I Heart Brewers]

They have who they have so focusing on that keeps me from playing that game. It's usually not as cut and dried as, 'if we had player X, then Y'.

 

Sure you can, but it's not just about Segura because then we'd have Odorizzi, Escobar, and Cain. Odorizzi would be in the rotation for us, we'd still have an excellent defender at SS in Escobar, Lohse wouldn't be around, and we'd still have a 1st round pick this season... and the domino effect goes on and on.

 

Picking up Segura who everyone apparently undervalued doesn't justify continually trading for short term pitching. We're as fortunate to have Segura as we are to have Aoki who Milwaukee didn't even scout. I'm thrilled to have Segura, I have no issues with flipping Greinke, I just wouldn't have targeted him, Marcum, or Sabathia in the first place.

 

Having made different moves we'd certainly have a different team than we do now but I have a hard time believing we'd be worse off from a pitching standpoint, in fact I think we'd actually be better all the way around.

 

I know people valued the playoff appearance in 2008 or think that Melvin made the only moves he could but I just don't feel that way.

 

I'm not justifying Melvin's moves. I'm just saying what's if's are just that. So why bother dwelling on them?

 

If your goal is to put a case together against Melvin as a GM, then sure, those would be valid arguments. But that's not the point of this thread.

[Outlander]

Sure you can, but it's not just about Segura because then we'd have Odorizzi, Escobar, and Cain. Odorizzi would be in the rotation for us, we'd still have an excellent defender at SS in Escobar, Lohse wouldn't be around, and we'd still have a 1st round pick this season... and the domino effect goes on and on.

They probably would have given up on Gomez by now as well and given Cain the job. Still think they would have signed Lohse. Would rather have Segura, Gomez, Hellweg and NLCS trip instead of Odorizzi, Escobar and Cain.

[brewcrewdue80]

Because the idea currently is that Gomez is untouchable, I think trading away Aoki can result in a good return. Segura turns to Leadoff, Gomez bats 2nd and the offense doesn't miss a beat down the road.

 

I wanted Weeks and ARam traded badly last season and it hasn't changed this season. I like ARam don't get me wrong, it's just what his contract does to the team's payroll and knowing that we lack any kind of 3b Prospect. It'd thrill me to get a 3b prospect.

 

Here's what I seen last season that I see playing out this season: KRod once again becomes closer and Henderson takes on 8th inning role. Both are expendable as closers this way in trade. It just seems destined Roenicke wants Henderson as his 8th inning guy now. Weeks gets everyday playing time. Like KRod and Wolf last season, every chance you get to show some glimmer of turning it around by these guys and hope some team takes notice and makes a trade offer.

 

Yuni's time came and went and I wonder what Toronto may have sent our way for him in the midst of his run. Now, I see him being trotted out often and losing trade value with each appearance.

 

I see the rest of the Bullpen remaining in tact. Gonzo/Gorzo/and Badenhop just don't see them having trade value. Figaro has become seemingly a go to guy and I cant see why trading him at the moment for a 2ip reliever on the roster.

 

You just know Hart will be traded but it probably lands a bottom 100 prospect. I'd take it. He lost his value with the injury and this offseason/last season's trade deadline was the clubs time to trade him. Missed it.

[monty57]

You just know Hart will be traded but it probably lands a bottom 100 prospect.

 

Does that mean one of the worst 100 prospects in the minors?

 

If you're saying that he'd get one of the guys at the end of the top 100 prospect list, I think you're way overvaluing what someone's going to give us for a couple of months of a guy coming off his second knee surgery in two years who will probably only have a month or so to "prove himself." I guess if he posts a 0.900+ OPS in that month we may get something, but I don't think we'd get much by trading him. If we could get someone in the 80-100 range of a top prospect list, I'd jump at the deal. The guy we'd get would immediately be our top prospect by a fairly wide margin.

 

Now, seeing that we've just guaranteed $2MM for K-Rod when we could've just brought up Sachez at league minimum, it doesn't appear that saving a couple million here or there is that important to the Brewers. It's more important to give the fans the perception that we're going for it. Therefore, I think they'll hold onto Hart and lose him to free agency at the end of the year rather than trade him for salary relief.

 

I think the most likely scenario is that we will make a minor deal, either trading someone like Gindl for a veteran, or trading someone like Gonzalez (either one) for a mid-tier prospect. Of the trades that could possibly bring something back, the most likely (but still pretty unlikely) would be Aoki, due to Schafer, Davis and Gindl being MLB-ready. In a distant second is probably Ramirez if we could find someone who would give us a talented prospect and eat his salary, but I highly doubt we'd trade him. I see almost zero chance of this last one, but trading Gallardo would probably be the biggest chance at getting a "blockbuster" return - possibly similar to the return the Rays got for Shields.

 

Like it or not, the Brewers will not make a move if it could give people the impression that they're not "going for it" either now or next year. No matter how much reality proves that this strategy isn't working, we'll continue to pay a handful of aging players the majority of our payroll. I don't know the reason, but it seems more and more that it's coming from the top. Either Attanasio thinks the Brewers really can build a championship team by operating like the Yankees he grew up watching, or L.A. (where perception is everything) is getting to him after living there for so long, and he doesn't want to look "small market." Spending money on a guy whose name is known by the fans looks like we're trying to win, so we do it often. Trading away a "name" guy with team control for prospects looks "small market," so we never do it.

 

Whatever the reasoning, our chances of infusing some much-needed young, cheap talent into the system are dwindling. Making some good mid-season trades could really help out our future, but I just don't see it happening.

[brewcrewdue80]

Why wait til the Deadline to sell? At what point is it no longer too early to trade away these players we are suggesting to trade?

19-30 on the year.

13 out of 1st in division. 12 out of 2nd (WildCard) 11 out of just 3rd in our division! (Last Wildcard)

 

Tied for 2nd worst Run differential in the NL.

 

It's not to sound like I've given up on this team, it's just realistically, those 3 above us StL,Cinn,Pitt are on pace for 98-105wins. Do the math that's a 79-34 finish on the season to reach 98wins. 71-41 for 90wins.

 

I've been harping on Roenicke's lineups over and over this season sitting Lucroy, not benching Weeks, playing Yuni and AGonz together. It's like the team has the thought they are going to turn it around and can't possibly lose their way out of the Playoff picture this soon.

 

Well, look at us today, after today's lineup batting Yuni Cleanup,Bianchi 5th as your sign of ineptitude in forward thinking of these May's games impact on the overall season standings.

 

The Starters are awful, with the exception of Estrada showing flashes of at least putting quality starts together. Gallardo and the Poorman's Gallardo/Peralta can't pitch in to the 6th innings. Lohse was a mistake from the start. And whoever resides in the #5 can't keep themselves healthy long enough to make an impact.

 

So with reality setting in I hope this season is about done. I'm just going to say ARam/Lohse and their supposed high priced contracts should be shipped away ASAP. A SP and 3b combo has to be of value to some team with Playoff aspirations. Give me a 3B 1-2year away Prospect and a 1-4year away High Talent SP prospect in return. They can add a midling current SP on Roster as well that Lohse would be taking place of helping the 40man situation of that team.

 

Weeks, send him away once Gennett is no longer of Super 2 concern. Pick up much of the tab remaining this season let that team deal with next year's salary.

Same as Hart. Bringing up Morris in return.

 

FWIW the team had a lower salary for this season and picking up the tabs to net higher return cannot possibly hurt the ownership that much. I think Morris/Gennett will keep fans coming just on the excitement they are here.

 

Gomez has turned to Core Player status and cannot be traded away unless he's seriously netting me Oh, let's say Seattle's Hultzen and Paxton. With Swapping Lucroy for Zunino. Gomez has become an All-Star and 24mil owed to him in the next 3years is a Cheap All-Star in his prime. He Blows away Revere and Span currently. So his return had better blow away what they returned!

 

If Gallardo is Coveted, then trade him. But the signs of his decline have me concerned that in truth he's injured and a Major Surgery is coming. Other GMs have to have that same concern and I'm thinking Gallardo isn't coveted right now.

[adambr2]

I'm fine with bringing up Scooter but I can't imagine that any team is willing to pick up Weeks' salary next year.

 

I think we are stuck with him. Not without eating a significant portion from this year and next at least.