The Ron Roenicke Thread

[Warning Track Power]

Honestly, we will never agree on this, and there's a lot more to the issues than you delve into with your post. And I don't want to see yet another topical thread hijacked by the same back & forth with the same folks.

 

I'm not frustrated "right now" -- I've been frustrated with the organization's approach for a while now, & honestly it has little to do with the W-L record this season.

 

I don't believe Ron Roenicke is the problem. And that's coming from someone who really isn't a big Roenicke fan. If he winds up being fired, the team's results won't wind up changing much, and that's because the organization as a whole is sorely lacking in the pitching department (I don't think Kranitz is at fault much either).

@TLB:

I definitely feel your pain when it comes to organizational building when it comes to the pitching staff. Suppan, Looper, Wolf, Lohse type signings do nothing for you and I would have hoped that DM would've learned his lesson from these type of signings in 2007, 2009 & 2010. While Wolf and Lohse (to date) weren't terrible signings, expecting those aforementioned pitchers to come in and be #2s for the Brewers when other teams are throwing out Greinke, Gio Gonzalez, Madison Bumgarner types really isn't good organizational building. In fact, the only reason the Wolf signing ended up looking good was because he became the #4 after the Greinke & Marcum trades. If the Brewers in 2013 had the ability to pull off two trades that made Lohse the #4, that signing (while not terrible based on Lohse's results so far) would undoubtedly look much better as well.

 

Should this fall on Roenicke? I think so. I definitely think Kranitz deserves major blame as well. Lohse has been fine but Gallardo (4.50 ERA) & Estrada (5.44 ERA) have regressed this season. Peralta's (6.45 ERA) development as a Top 100 prospect in baseball has gone dramatically backwards this season with his inability to throw strikes consistently. Fiers/Burgos (5.93/6.44 ERAs), while not necessarily #1 ace types or even #2 or #3s, have pitched terribly for the most part. While we should have expected some regression from Estrada, Fiers & Peralta from their 2012 levels, their ERAs from 2012 to 2013 have each gone up 2+ runs. That is off the cliff regression. How and why has this happened? Watching from 2012 to 2013, the stuff looks the same, but the ability to throw consistent strikes isn't there. To me, that falls on the coaching and time in the video room to identify the source of the inability to repeat mechanics. Roenicke & Kranitz deserve MAJOR blame for this and I for one think Kranitz should be shown the door today, but that's just me.

 

Where I don't agree with you is if you have a disagreement with their approach to building a lineup. LouisEly put it far more eloquently than I will but I couldn't agree with him more. Save losing Fielder and that had more to do with economics of baseball than anything else, I don't think we could have anticipated the dealing of Cain, Hardy, Jeffress, Escobar & Greinke could have worked out any better than it has. The Brewers have Braun, Segura, Gomez, Lucroy, Aoki all locked in for 3+ seasons and that is a excellent start to a power/speed lineup. If they can somehow supplement this core with a 1B, 2B & 3B moving forward, the Brewers will be in excellent shape. RR only needs to stop making stupid decisions about stealing and baserunning fundamentals. Braun has 2 SBs & 5 CS. Aoki has 6 SB & 6 CS. Either they are tipping when they are going or they are in obvious stealing situations and RR is being outmanaged, the latter of which is the more likely source in my opinion.

[Thurston Fluff]

While Wolf and Lohse (to date) weren't terrible signings, expecting those aforementioned pitchers to come in and be #2s for the Brewers when other teams are throwing out Greinke, Gio Gonzalez, Madison Bumgarner types really isn't good organizational building.

 

Lohse should be expected to compete with the guys you mentioned. He had as good a season last year as pretty much all of them.

RR only needs to stop making stupid decisions about stealing and baserunning fundamentals. Braun has 2 SBs & 5 CS. Aoki has 6 SB & 6 CS.

Bit selective there isn't it? Those two players account for more than half the total number of caught stealing. Granted the team as a whole is somewhat low in stealing % right now but this same group of players stole bases at an 80% clip last season. According to stat guys that means it created more runs than if they wouldn't have stole bases. Seems a bit premature to stop now because their rate is to low to start the season. Like it or not last season the aggressive strategy was successful. So why stop doing it if you have the same players?

[monty57]

WTP, the entire MLB roster and the state of the minor leagues has to fall on Melvin's (or Attanasio's) shoulders. His aggregate decisions have led to us having the lopsided (all offense), aging, expensive team we have, and have led to us not having anyone in the minors to complement the MLB roster. He's the guy who selected the manager, scouting director, etc. He's the guy who is ultimately responsible for what's right and wrong with the franchise.

 

This board has gone round and round about the success of individual moves, but in aggregate, the MLB team is not good and the minor league system stinks. We don't have a first round draft pick next year, we don't have many tradeable pieces that make sense to trade to bring young talent into the system, and we're going to have a $100MM roster next year that will look like a less talented version of this year's team.

 

At what point do we stop looking at individual trees and realize that the forest is on fire?

[Warning Track Power]

WTP, the entire MLB roster and the state of the minor leagues has to fall on Melvin's (or Attanasio's) shoulders. His aggregate decisions have led to us having the lopsided (all offense), aging, expensive team we have, and have led to us not having anyone in the minors to complement the MLB roster. He's the guy who selected the manager, scouting director, etc. He's the guy who is ultimately responsible for what's right and wrong with the franchise.

@Monty:

Yes. I agree that the roster and state of the minor leagues does fall on Melvin. Period. The roster is aging but not truly old save Ramirez and Lohse who are mid-30s. The everyday roster includes Hart, Aoki and Weeks who are 31, Braun is 30, Gomez is 28, Lucroy is 27 & Segura is 23. The average age of the bullpen, which turns over almost yearly, is 30. The rotation has one pitcher over 30, Lohse. That isn't really an old team in my opinion.

 

What I don't agree with is the notion that this team is bereft of talent and vastly underachieving based on what they are capable of and that should not fall on Melvin.

 

NL Pitching Ranks: 15th ERA, R, ER, WHIP, H, HR

 

Most of us on this board felt really good that our offense paired with a 1-2-3-4 of Gallardo-Lohse-Estrada-Peralta should be an 80+ win team. Maybe not a playoff team but definitely capable of being in the mix in late August. Now there is plenty of time between May and August but each one of these pitchers, save Lohse, have VASTLY underperformed this year. How is that Melvin's fault?

 

@Thurston Fluff:

Lohse had a great 2012, but I don't believe anyone with realistic expectations should have expected him to be on the level of Greinke, Gio & Bumgarner. Put another way, would you take Lohse over any of them because I wouldn't?

[Thurston Fluff]

Lohse was as good as or better than Greinke since 2011.

[adambr2]

MA is somewhat of an emotional guy, and I'm not sure how much goodwill can be bought with him. If he made an emotional decision to can a guy in September in the midst of a playoff race, I'm not sure how much patience he's going to have with one that drastically underperforms his expectations.

 

If RR goes, I think Melvin goes down with him this time as well. Not necessarily because he deserves it, but because like people have mentioned, at some point you have to alter the organizational approach entirely.

 

Although Macha and Roenicke couldn't be much more different, so I wouldn't necessarily say that we can assume there is a certain "brand" of individual that Melvin would go after.

 

I would like our next coach to be a younger more modern thinker who tries his best to understand the current game of baseball and isn't stuck in trends from the 70's and 80's.

[adambr2]

And to Roenicke's credit, I think there are some ways in which he IS a modern, forward thinker who isn't stuck in old trends (defensive shifts, use of backup catcher) but too many where he's not a modern thinker and is stuck in old trends (small ball, lineup construction, bullpen roles).

[TheCrew07]

Lohse was as good as or better than Greinke since 2011.

 

And is much older, doesn't have a dynamic FB or secondary stuff....

 

He's just become the epitome of a control pitcher and expecting him to maintain the level of performance he achieved in STL with a totally different team behind him, a different ballpark, and given the fact that he's aging, Lohse isn't comparable to any of the top of players in the game by any measure other than a small statistical sample of his career from STL.

[TheCrew07]

Although Macha and Roenicke couldn't be much more different, so I wouldn't necessarily say that we can assume there is a certain "brand" of individual that Melvin would go after.

 

I actually think it's pretty simple and the hiring pattern has been easy to detect. Macha was the opposite of Yost strategically and Roenicke was the opposite of Macha from a personality standpoint. Every manager has been strongest in what the manager before him was the worst at.

 

"This guy sucks at "A" so I'm going to find guy who's a good baseball man and strong in that aspect." Rinse. Repeat.

 

It's no different than any other part of Melvin's managerial style, it's all straightforward and conservative, he doesn't seem to be a very complicated guy.

[Warning Track Power]

@ThurstonFluff:

And Greinke was 16-8 with a 2.16 ERA in 2009, whereas Lohse was 6-10 with a 4.64 ERA. What does that mean? Nothing. Looking at a span of years, from 2008-2012, Lohse in 809 IP has a 3.90 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP, whereas Greinke in 1,035 IP has a 3.39 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. Moving forward, if you would rather have a 34 year old Lohse than a 29 year old Greinke then we have nothing to discuss because in my mind that shouldn't even be an argument.

[monty57]

If it's Roenicke's fault that some players aren't performing to what some people expect, then why isn't Roenicke given all the credit for those who are overperforming?

 

Segura wasn't an elite prospect, but he's playing at an All Star level. Gomez was a DFA candidate in many people's mind, and played the small side of a platoon under every other manager he had. Aoki has outplayed most people's expectations in his time as a Brewer.

 

I personally don't think Roenicke has too much sway either way, but he can't be at fault for the bad starting pitching and not be credited with those playing well. Realistically, I think that there are players who are playing poorly who will play better, and there are players who are playing well who will cool off. I think (hope) that Gallardo's drop in velocity stems from playing in the World Baseball Classic, and doesn't stem from (if the articles Ennder linked in another post are correct) the flawed mechanics he's had since hurting his knee in his rookie year catching up with him. I hoped Peralta would be kept in the minors to start the season, as he's always had control issues that I'd rather he work out in AAA instead of the majors, and we could've held him for another year (in his prime) if we kept him in the minors for a couple months. Gallardo's drop in velocity is surprising. Peralta's lack of control and Estrada not pitching well aren't big surprises. Fiers getting knocked around and Burgos being pretty pedestrian shouldn't surprise anyone. Our minor league guys' poor play shows why "prospect raters" said we were one of the worst systems in the majors.

 

I think that many posters, looking optimistically at their favorite team, underweighted some of the warts the team has and overweighted the hot finish to last season, and with that optimisitc viewpoint figured the Brewers could be above .500, and with some luck could make a run for the second wild card. That's all well-and-good on a message board, but I'd guess that if you had asked people to put money on the Brewers' chances this year, I doubt many would've bet that the Brewers would be a playoff team.

 

But, to me it's not about what could've been done differently this offseason, it's about the decisions made over the recent past when we were all about going "all in." We started with a group of great prospects, two of whom have a good shot at ending up in the Hall of Fame and several other multi-time All Stars along with a rapidly expanding payroll. From that, we got two playoff appearances and one playoff series win. We are now team laden with guaranteed future financial obligations that severely restirct us, tied to a team that has gotten less talented each of the last two years and figures to continue to get less talented into the foreseeable future as our good players leave and our weak farm system can't replace them with similarly talented players.

 

Some are happy since we finally made the playoffs. All along, they said it didn't matter if we sucked in the future, because they wanted to see the Brewers win now. Well, it's the future, so again, there shouldn't be surprise when the expected outcome became reality. This year's team isn't as bad as it's been playing, but it's not a good team. We're going to have a $100MM roster next year basically made up of this year's team minus Hart and with everyone a year older. I had hoped that some of the minor leaguers would step up this year, but unless something changes it doesn't look like anyone's proving they're worthy of a MLB rotation spot.

 

I could go on, but it gets me depressed. As I said after the Lohse signing, Melvin was trying to open a "second window," only this time with far less talent than the first. I said that it may work, but it would increase the likelihood that we'd need a complete rebuild. I said I'd really cheer this team on, as I thought that slim as the playoff hopes were, this year was going to be the best shot for the playoffs we'd have for a while. I guess the "silver lining" is that maybe, just maybe the horrible start to this season will open Attanasio's eyes that we need a new strategy, and it needs to start sooner rather than later.

 

But, instead, I'd bet that Roenicke will get the blame.

[Warning Track Power]

We are now team laden with guaranteed future financial obligations that severely restirct us, tied to a team that has gotten less talented each of the last two years and figures to continue to get less talented into the foreseeable future as our good players leave and our weak farm system can't replace them with similarly talented players.

Monty, I agree with a good number of your points but I fail to see the restrictive future financial obligations that you mentioned. Hart's ($10m) contract is done after this season 2013, Weeks ($11m) and Ramirez ($16m w a $4m buyout for 2015) after 2014 and Lohse ($11m) after 2015. Other than Braun and Lucroy's extensions, where are these financial restrictions? Am I missing something?

[thebruce44]

Lohse was as good as or better than Greinke since 2011.

 

False.

[markedman5]

RR is not the problem per MA....

 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/jon-heyman/22290187/attanasio-denies-brewers-arent-hustling-praises-roenicke

[TooLiveBrew]

RR is not the problem per MA....

 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/jon-heyman/22290187/attanasio-denies-brewers-arent-hustling-praises-roenicke

Do we have a dreaded 'vote of confidence' here?

 

“One thing I like about (manager) Ron Roenicke, the players play hard for him. That has not been the issue.'

Doesn't completely absolve RR from blame

[monty57]

We are now team laden with guaranteed future financial obligations that severely restirct us, tied to a team that has gotten less talented each of the last two years and figures to continue to get less talented into the foreseeable future as our good players leave and our weak farm system can't replace them with similarly talented players.

Monty, I agree with a good number of your points but I fail to see the restrictive future financial obligations that you mentioned. Hart's ($10m) contract is done after this season 2013, Weeks ($11m) and Ramirez ($16m w a $4m buyout for 2015) after 2014 and Lohse ($11m) after 2015. Other than Braun and Lucroy's extensions, where are these financial restrictions? Am I missing something?

 

The big hit (the bottleneck I've been worried about for a while) is next year, when I don't see how we will have any room to move, so unless we find a way to trade away some salary we will not be able to do much. We'll basically have this year's roster minus Hart and a few relievers, and a $100MM payroll.

 

While Weeks' poor play hurts the Brewers, it may help the financial obligation, as long as they either cut him or sit him so that his option doesn't automatically exercise (2015 option guaranteed if Weeks is healthy at end of 2014 season and has 600 PAs in 2014 or 1,200 PAs in 2013-14). If his option exercises, we will owe a 36-year old Lohse $11MM (not incl his deferred money) and Weeks $11.5MM, and we'll still owe Ramirez $4MM to not play. I'm just going on my opinion of how Lohse and Weeks would play in 2015, but I'd consider this a "dead" $26.5MM.

 

Braun ($13MM), Lucroy ($3.1MM) and Gomez ($8MM) would be the only other guaranteed money, and the Brewers have a $13MM option for Gallardo if he re-discovers his velocity ($0.6MM buyout if he doesn't). If Weeks plays enough for his contract to exercise, we'd have $63.6MM for six guys. We don't have much help coming up through the system, so there's a chance we'd still have Estrada in year 3 arby, which would probably be around $7MM, but I don't envision Axford still being around even next year for the price he'll demand in arby. That's $70.6MM for seven guys. We need 25 guys on the roster, so if we have a $100MM payroll, that's $29.4MM for the remaining 18 guys. If Weeks is out, it's $40.9MM for 19 guys which is certainly more doable.

 

So, we have:

 

C Lucroy $3.1MM

1B ? - Gamel at around $2-3MM or Morris at $500k if either proves worthy

2B ? - Weeks at $11.5MM or Gennett at $500k

SS Segura $500k

3B ?

LF Braun $13MM

CF Gomez $8MM

RF ? Aoki at around $4MM or Schafer/Gindl/Davis

 

SP ?

SP Gallardo $13MM

SP ?

SP Estrada $7MM

SP Lohse $11MM

 

Since it'd be hard to sign anyone next year because of the outstanding liabilities, and since we don't have good prospects to fill in the question marks on the board, I find it hard to believe we'll turn the list above into a playoff contender. Then we'd lose Gallardo, Estrada, Lohse and Weeks to free agency. Again, with very little in terms of prospects to bring up to replace them.

[monty57]

RR is not the problem per MA....

 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/jon-heyman/22290187/attanasio-denies-brewers-arent-hustling-praises-roenicke

 

 

"The owner signed free agent pitcher Kyle Lohse for $33 million over three years practically on the eve of the season over the objections of his general manager Doug Melvin"

 

I'd heard rumors that Attanasio was behind the Lohse signing, but nothing stating that Melvin objected and Attanasio did the deal anyway. I've said before, if the problem is Melvin, it's an easy fix. If it's Attanasio, we have to hope he learns that a team in Milwaukee cannot be run like the Yankees.

[trwi7]

It's pretty disturbing (and very Herb Kohl like) that the owner goes above his baseball people and essentially forces a free agent signing. I hate that. If you're just going to go above your GM's head, why even have a GM?

[markedman5]

Maybe he wants to be Jerry Jones or Cuban?

[1992casey]

I actually think it's pretty simple and the hiring pattern has been easy to detect. Macha was the opposite of Yost strategically and Roenicke was the opposite of Macha from a personality standpoint. Every manager has been strongest in what the manager before him was the worst at.

 

Often, teams will shift from a "player's manager" to a "disciplinarian," or vice versa… although none of the recent Brewer ex-managers have neatly fallen into either of those categories.

[monty57]

It's pretty disturbing (and very Herb Kohl like) that the owner goes above his baseball people and essentially forces a free agent signing. I hate that. If you're just going to go above your GM's head, why even have a GM?

 

So you can have a scapegoat when things blow up?

[xisxisxis]

It's no different than any other part of Melvin's managerial style, it's all straightforward and conservative, he doesn't seem to be a very complicated guy.

 

I have always had the impression that Melvin is a very linear thinker who is playing checkers. We need a GM who can play chess and has the ability to carry on multiple options in parallel.

 

 

I've said before, if the problem is Melvin, it's an easy fix. If it's Attanasio, we have to hope he learns that a team in Milwaukee cannot be run like the Yankees.

 

The way I see it is that they are both a problem. Attanasio is an owner who wants to maximize revenues and profits. That isn't the best way to run a ballclub for the long-term. He also gets too involved in the daily running of the team and roster decisions. He's no better qualified at being a GM than I am, but he's there almost daily playing with his toy team. Melvin is so conservative it's like he's reading a 1950's era GM handbook when making decisions. As TheCrew pointed out he is often reacting to events and not understanding and addressing the weaknesses. 2009 and 2010 were lost years because he didn't understand the deficiencies of his starting pitching. 2012 and 2013 are turning into the same mess. He addressed the bullpen after the 2012 debacle. There is no organizational depth anywhere yet at one time we have 5 SS on the roster. I could go on, but my blood pressure is rising and I prefer to live another day.......

 

Ultimately, there isn't 1 problem with this organization, there are many of varying levels of importance. As I have been saying for YEARS, Melvin isn't the right GM to run a small market team and he's way past his sell by date. I think replacing him by hiring someone outside the organization and the eventual changes that would ensue (changes to the coaching, scouting, and drafting/player development) might be what is needed, but there is no guarantee that will work any better. However, it's clear Melvin & Co aren't the answer. I am not sure that Attanasiiiooooh actually will make the right choice when looking at possible GM candidates so any change may not make things better, but I am 99.9% sure that hiring a GM from within would be a disaster....

[adambr2]

I agree with the general thoughts on Melvin and have said the same.

 

His offseasons are very predictible. Attempt to patch holes from the precious year via FA or trade and move on. I don't feel like there has been a 3 to 5 year plan in a long time. Just a constant series' of 1 year plans. It feels like he's thinking reactively about 90% of the time and pro-actively about 10% of the time.

[LouisEly]

MA is somewhat of an emotional guy, and I'm not sure how much goodwill can be bought with him. If he made an emotional decision to can a guy in September in the midst of a playoff race, I'm not sure how much patience he's going to have with one that drastically underperforms his expectations.

If you invested millions of dollars of your own money into something you would probably be pretty emotional about that thing too. While the value of the franchise has very likely gone up since he bought it, you don't make or lose money on anything until you sell it. You don't get to where MA is without pride in what you do, and losing/not achieving your goals/vision hurts your pride.

 

As an owner, MA should certainly have a say in things that impact attendance which is the major revenue driver of his business. Not control, but certainly a say.

[monty57]

MA is somewhat of an emotional guy, and I'm not sure how much goodwill can be bought with him. If he made an emotional decision to can a guy in September in the midst of a playoff race, I'm not sure how much patience he's going to have with one that drastically underperforms his expectations.

If you invested millions of dollars of your own money into something you would probably be pretty emotional about that thing too. While the value of the franchise has very likely gone up since he bought it, you don't make or lose money on anything until you sell it. You don't get to where MA is without pride in what you do, and losing/not achieving your goals/vision hurts your pride.

 

As an owner, MA should certainly have a say in things that impact attendance which is the major revenue driver of his business. Not control, but certainly a say.

 

Attanasio has every right to do whatever he wants, but it doesn't appear that he knows all that much about team building, and I think Boras is using that to his advantage.

 

Attanasio did a good job in squeezing every ounce of "non-baseball" revenues that he could. However, the payroll expense seems to be stretched to the point that a drop in revenues from attendance (and things like parking and concessions which go along with attendance) could really hurt. When faced with the potential for drop in revenues, the initial reaction by business owners is often to throw money at the problem. When/if that doesn't work, the next step is usually to slash expenses.

 

I applaud Melvin for his restraint this offseason. Then Attanasio paniced and signed Lohse. That hasn't worked, so I'll let you decide how best to slash expenses. Remember, contracts are guaranteed and other GM's aren't stupid, so no one is taking bad contracts off our hands.