The Ron Roenicke Thread

[trwi7]

But if I could find a stat for what our team is hitting with RISP for the season, I bet it would be pretty low. And that's not Ron's fault.

 

Out of 30 teams the Brewers are 13th (.255) in batting average, 14th (.341) in OBP, 11th (.419) in SLG% and 11th (.760) in OPS with RISP. So better than average in every category.

 

If you shorten it to just the NL they are 6th in BA, 6th in OBP, 5th in SLG% and 5th in OPS.

[The stache]

We're hitting .255 with RISP coming into the day.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?team=MIL&t=b&year=2013

 

That's not terrible. With 2 outs and RISP, we're batting .213. That's abysmal.

[trwi7]

We're hitting .255 with RISP coming into the day.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?team=MIL&t=b&year=2013

 

That's not terrible. With 2 outs and RISP, we're batting .213. That's abysmal.

 

Yet those numbers are still basically average in the NL. The NL average is .228/.334/.349/.683 and the Brewers are .213/.318/.367/.685.

[The stache]

Man on third with two out, we're hitting .188.

 

Do you still have the league splits up, trwi7? What's the league average in that situation?

[TooLiveBrew]

Man on third with two out, we're hitting .188.

 

Do you still have the league splits up, trwi7? What's the league average in that situation?

You can look for yourself

 

Brewers

 

NL

[adambr2]

There are many stats for situational hitting, but in general we do seem to be pretty close to league average in all of them.

 

Which leads me to believe that there is a lot more to our mysterious inability to score runs despite stats that scream top offense, and much of that is due to RR's baserunning philosophies.

[The stache]

The top of our offense is Superman. The bottom of our lineup (Weeks, Gonzalez/Betancourt and our catchers) are kryptonite.

[RightFieldCoder]

The problem is that the "bottom of our lineup" is usually 4, 5, 6, 8, and 9.

[fondybrewfan]

While the inconsistent offense has been troublesome; its not the reason we suck. MIL has the worst ERA, worst WHIP, has given up the most hits in the NLm and is near the bottom in strikeouts. If the pitching staff was even average right now we would be fine. I have a hard time blaming that on Ron. He really doesn't seem to have much at his disposal right now especially in the starting rotation. There isn't anyone else to use right now.

[Bombers]

While the inconsistent offense has been troublesome; its not the reason we suck. MIL has the worst ERA, worst WHIP, has given up the most hits in the NLm and is near the bottom in strikeouts. If the pitching staff was even average right now we would be fine. I have a hard time blaming that on Ron. He really doesn't seem to have much at his disposal right now especially in the starting rotation. There isn't anyone else to use right now.

This is where I am at. Our pitching is atrocious

[brwrsfan]

I'll give him a pass on the starters, not much he can do about that...but I do question some of his bullpen decisions, especially his insistance on putting Axford into tight games time after time while he's been struggling badly.

[brewcrewdue80]

But if I could find a stat for what our team is hitting with RISP for the season, I bet it would be pretty low. And that's not Ron's fault.

 

Out of 30 teams the Brewers are 13th (.255) in batting average, 14th (.341) in OBP, 11th (.419) in SLG% and 11th (.760) in OPS with RISP. So better than average in every category.

 

If you shorten it to just the NL they are 6th in BA, 6th in OBP, 5th in SLG% and 5th in OPS.

 

Where does the team rank upon removing say Braun alone. Or Aoki. Or Segura. I feel the mass success in that statline resides in those 3. It'd be great to really compare teams removing their top 3 in production in that category. My guess then is the Brewers would rank near the bottom. There are teams lucky enough to have 1 batter over .300 so our 5 above .300 will eschew stats a bit in our favor.

 

I'm not a fan of why this team has Gonzalez still on it. What annoys me is how Roenicke uses him as a Pinch hitter in so many key situations it's sickening. He's actually 2 for 9 with a BB 2outs RISP but then that makes him 0-12 with 1 Sac fly at any other time 0BBs. Again this really falls on Weeks who has 3hits and 11BBs in 50 PA with RISP. No hits with 2outs and just 3BBs in 22PA RISP. Combined that is 5hits in 73PAs by 2 Veteran Players who should know how to get it done with RISP and aren't.

 

Here's my other question which would be, how many GDPs does the team have with RISP? Braun and ARam both killed promising innings with runners on 1st/2nd by grounding in to Double Plays. There should be a stat listing number of DPs hit in to with RISP...I'm going to put the Brewers among the worst/leaders in that category. Lucroy/Weeks/ just soo many DPs I can recall with 2runners on.

Looking it up:Weeks 4/Braun 3/Gomez 1/Segura 2/Aoki 0/Gonzalez 0/Lucroy 2/Yuni 1/Maldonado 1/ARam 1. Not as bad as I thought. Though shows you how awful Weeks has been. 3hits Risp 4DP. That's more outs made than hits in that situation!

 

BTW. Looking at ARam on BREF: Did you know Pittsburgh signed him as a Free Agent out of Cuba at the age of 16? and he Debuted at 19? What a find by whoever scouted him huh?

[danzig6767]

I see Roenicke lower on the problem list behind pitching, but one thing that i can't do anymore is watch his press conferences after games. His putting a y at the end of nearly every players last name is annoying as hell.

 

It used to make me laugh, kinda like listening to Davey Nelson still fumbling around trying to formulate a sentence without stammering, but now the Roenicke y-fest bugs me a lot. Maybe it's the losing though which has made me change the channel as soon as i hear him say Brauny, Rammy, Gomey, Axy, Siggy, etc.

[DocLuna7]

BTW. Looking at ARam on BREF: Did you know Pittsburgh signed him as a Free Agent out of Cuba at the age of 16? and he Debuted at 19? What a find by whoever scouted him huh?

 

Not to nitpick, but I think it was out of the DR.

[BuckyBrewer61]

So when does RRR's seat start to heat up? I mean, if he lost every game the rest of year, he'd be fired, right? Obviously there is absolutely no way that happens, but it demonstrates that there has to be SOME threshold where his job security becomes more tenuous.

 

I agree with those that say that the Brewers failures this year are largely on the players and not RRR, but I also don't think "well, it's not his fault, he's not the one pitching/hitting" is valid reason to keep a job either (see: Butch Wynegar). It's the manager's job to put the team in the best position to win, and I feel Roenicke routinely does not do so, and FWIW thought so when they were winning the division in 2011 as well. Would it make a huge difference this year? And did it in 2011? I don't think so, though I do believe it does make some difference, albeit small. But if "it's not his fault" is the best we can say about the guy...what are we trying to hold onto?

[monty57]

From a May 8, 2012 article:

 

Melvin's new deal runs through the 2015 season. Roenicke's contract will go through 2014 with a club option for 2015.

 

Melvin was under contract through 2012 in Milwaukee after signing an extension in 2008. Roenicke previously was signed through the 2012 season with a club option for 2013.

 

It's kind of silly, but I think there's an unwritten rule that managers (other than LaRussa) don't do one-year deals. They're either let go or extended when there's one year left on the deal. I'd guess that Roenicke is safe for this season, but if the team continues to tank, he will probably be shown the door when the season's over. If they start playing better soon, and come close to getting in the playoffs, his option will probably be exercised.

 

The question in my mind if they end this season out of contention and Roenicke is let go is whether Melvin will decide it's time to retire (I don't think he wants to GM a rebuild) or if he will finish out his contract, meaning that he'd be the guy picking the next manager. How many GMs get the opportunity to hire so many managers in so short a time frame?

[adambr2]

Judging from Mark A's demeanor today, I'm not sure how solid Roenicke's job security really is.

 

It's clear he's frustrated, and I think his expectations for this roster are much higher than they are delivering.

 

If he fired his manager during a September playoff run after a bad stretch, what makes Roenicke safe? Only difference is that I think if a change is made this time, Melvin goes down with him.

[Warning Track Power]

Attanasio isn't the only one who should be frustrated. We all should be frustrated with this team. 5/8 of the regulars hitting over .300, a bullpen that just had a 20+ IP streak scoreless snapped today, yet the Brewers continue to lose at an astounding clip and a lot of the time have really not even been in the games the past three weeks. It's disheartening to be a fan right now and Attanasio is in danger of fans losing interest to the Badgers and Packers far earlier than July this year.

[TooLiveBrew]

It's disheartening to be a fan right now and Attanasio is in danger of fans losing interest to the Badgers and Packers far earlier than July this year.

Honestly, I've simply lost interest in watching games, period. I mean, I still tune in for a dose of Segura, Braun, & Gómez... but I'm someone who, up until sometime last season, watched every single game I could from start to finish. I'm just sick of the way this franchise is run, and the product on the field reflects the poor strategy. If this team has lost me in May... I think the attendance numbers might wind up being pretty ugly for them this season. And honestly, that appears to be the only way that the current leadership of the club would possibly consider changing the approach. So I guess that's something good that might come from a terrible 2013 (not holding my breath for it, though).

 

I realize this is a thread about Roenicke, but honestly I don't have much of a problem with him -- at least, compared to whatever other nearly-identical dude Melvin would hire. The problem with this team isn't the manager, it's the approach from the front office & ownership.

[Invader3K]

After reading Ryan Braun's comments from today, I have to believe the locker room isn't a fun place to be right now.

[LouisEly]

I realize this is a thread about Roenicke, but honestly I don't have much of a problem with him -- at least, compared to whatever other nearly-identical dude Melvin would hire. The problem with this team isn't the manager, it's the approach from the front office & ownership.

 

We're all frustrated right now. Let's look at this objectively; with the exception of Weeks and to a lesser extent Axford, the players that have been signed to big contracts are not the problem (if you call Axford's one year $5M deal a "big contract", but the Brewers owe Axford that for his 2011 season when he made $442K). Lohse isn't the problem, Ramirez isn't the problem, Braun isn't the problem, Gomez isn't the problem, Gallardo has dropped off but hasn't been terrible, and a healthy Hart hasn't been the problem. It's been the young/inexperienced starting pitching (Estrada, Peralta, Burgos), Weeks, Lucroy, and the bench (Gonzalez/Maldonado/Schafer/Lalli/Davis).

 

When Weeks signed his extension he was 28 years old coming off of back-to-back >.800 OPS season (3.7 WAR in 2010 and 1.9 WAR in only 37 games in 2009) - that's exactly the type of player you extend for four years. They traded Hardy, Escobar, and Cain for upgrades at those positions (Segura, Gomez) and Odorizzi for a year and a half rental of Grienke and two pitching prospects (Hellweg, Pena). Brantley was the only player traded for Sabathia that amounted to anything (an average CF), and the Brewers upgraded there. Melvin expected to get a 1st round pick if/when Sabathia left, but got screwed out of that (and potentially Mike Trout) by MLB's stupid rules.

 

While the Brewers may have missed some opportunities in the first two rounds of the 2009 draft, those players would be rookies at best this season, more likely AAA. The people responsible for the drafts that should be yielding the core of the team (2008-2006 drafts) are gone; the Brewers missed opportunities in those drafts too. In essence, they have already gotten rid of part of the problem. I personally think Jack Z. was overrated.

 

When the sum of the parts is greater than the whole you look at the coaching. That's what I see with the Brewers - the sum of the parts is greater than the whole. I don't know if it is RR or if it is Kranitz and Narron, but I think it is more the coaches (Kranitz, Narron, etc.) than RR or management.

[TooLiveBrew]

Honestly, we will never agree on this, and there's a lot more to the issues than you delve into with your post. And I don't want to see yet another topical thread hijacked by the same back & forth with the same folks.

 

I'm not frustrated "right now" -- I've been frustrated with the organization's approach for a while now, & honestly it has little to do with the W-L record this season.

 

I don't believe Ron Roenicke is the problem. And that's coming from someone who really isn't a big Roenicke fan. If he winds up being fired, the team's results won't wind up changing much, and that's because the organization as a whole is sorely lacking in the pitching department (I don't think Kranitz is at fault much either).

[monty57]

If he winds up being fired, the team's results won't wind up changing much

 

The thing is, we're underperforming so much right now that we have to get better. If Roenicke is not fired, we'll get better, and if he is fired we'll get better. The problem with firing him right now is that the new coach will get the credit for "turning things around," and then this offseason everyone will have their excuse for the bad season, allowing them to act as if the strategy is sound, which it's not.

 

Just like the final 1/3 of last season was used by many (including management) to believe that that was our true talent level, and not the crappy play that led to the mid-season sell-off, the post-Roenicke surge would be used next offseason as a reason to continue in "go for it" mode.

 

Other than that, I'm with you. I look at things from a business standpoint, because I understand that a lot better than I understand things like the mechanics of throwing a pitch or swinging a bat. Whether your looking at personal finances or business finances, continually foregoing the future for the present is a bad strategy. Racking up guaranteed future liabilities with seemingly no comprehension that revenues could decline is a mistake that no qualified manager should make. I'm 41, so I do understand the effects of age, but at 60-something, Melvin hasn't seemed to grasp the concept that all players decline as they get older. Combining the last two and guaranteeing large future obligations to players who will almost certainly decline significantly is very bad judgement.

 

But I digress. You are correct that this is a Roenicke thread and should not travel down the same hijacked thread.

 

Deservedly or not, Roenicke is probably on the hot seat. Getting blamed for losing while not getting credit for winning is part of being a MLB manager. I just hope that Attanasio does some deep soul-searching and doesn't just make a knee-jerk move. Firing Roenicke and letting Melvin pick the next manager and continue to put the team together is the same strategy he's used for the last few managers he's hired and fired. What's that Einstein quote about insanity?

[1992casey]

"Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results."

 

Most people attribute this to Einstein, but the evidence is lacking to know for sure.

 

It's part of the basic text of Narcotics Anonymous, copyrighted in 1982 and published in 1983.

[fondybrewfan]

I am guessing that RR and DM won't be on the hotseat unless we finish with like 90 losses. I think they still have enough goodwill with Mark A after getting with 2 games of the World Series in 2011. That being said Mark A does take this team in his own hands sometimes (mostly with FA's) so I think he defintely has the balls to clean house if he thinks its necessary. But I think the odds are pretty long that DM or RR are gone this year. We probably need to stink again next year before anybody outside of a hitting or pitching coach gets fired.

 

DM may have an opportunity to pick up some talent at the trade deadline this year. He fleeced LAA last year and I am hoping he can do the same again this year although he doesn't have a Grienke at his disposal.