Why are we so bad at developing pitchers?

[TooLiveBrew]

Melvin admitted no one in the organization had ever watched him (live or on film) prior to Melvin submitting a low-ball bid...

 

I cannot even fathom how that is possible. How can a scouting department not even put in 15-20 minutes of watching film of one of the best Japanese hitters? Crazy

It's not true. Craig Counsell did video scouting on Aoki & signed off on his swing translating to MLB.

[3and2Fastball]

It's not true. Craig Counsell did video scouting on Aoki & signed off on his swing translating to MLB.

 

OK. Good. I was gonna say.....

 

I mean hey I can take a look at some video in 30 minutes and at least get an idea if a prospect is a player. And I'm a Little League Baseball Coach. A pro like Counsell or anyone else in the scouting department could see a lot more than I ever will in 2-3 minutes

[logan82]

Melvin admitted no one in the organization had ever watched him (live or on film) prior to Melvin submitting a low-ball bid...

 

I cannot even fathom how that is possible. How can a scouting department not even put in 15-20 minutes of watching film of one of the best Japanese hitters? Crazy

It's not true. Craig Counsell did video scouting on Aoki & signed off on his swing translating to MLB.

I thought that was after they won the bid but before they signed him.

[monty57]

Melvin admitted no one in the organization had ever watched him (live or on film) prior to Melvin submitting a low-ball bid...

 

I cannot even fathom how that is possible. How can a scouting department not even put in 15-20 minutes of watching film of one of the best Japanese hitters? Crazy

It's not true. Craig Counsell did video scouting on Aoki & signed off on his swing translating to MLB.

 

It's not really all that important, but IIRC, he did the video scouting, and Aoki was flown to Arizona for the team to see him after the $2.5MM bid won. I think they scouted him prior to signing him to a contract, but not prior to placing the winning bid. I remember reading about them scrambling looking for video (apparently for Counsell to watch) and that they were flying him to Arizona.

 

All I can find in a quick internet search is that the Brewers didn't scout Japan... nothing about whether or not anyone had seen video prior to the posting. Regardless, they didn't see much, if any, of him, and were surprised by winning the bid. Aoki was the top-ranked hitter in Japan and we lucked into him. I'm glad we did, but it wasn't due to skillful scouting.

 

I did find this, which I didn't realize:

 

New Brewers outfielder Norichika Aoki will make at least $2.25 million over two years under his contract and would earn up to $8,187,500 if his 2014 option is exercised and he has at least 140 starts and 150 games played per season.

 

In 2012, it looks like he appeared in 151 games, but only started 119.

 

From Cot's:

 

Norichika Aoki of

2 years/$2.5M (2012-13), plus 2014 option

 

2 years/$2.5M (2012-13), plus 2014 club option

signed by Milwaukee 1/17/12

12:$1M, 13:$1.25M, 14:$1.5M club option ($0.25M buyout)

performance bonuses based on games (75-150) and starts (100-140):

$1.675M in 2012, $0.8375M in 2013, $1.0875M in 2014

2013 salary increases by one half of 2012 bonuses earned

Milwaukee won negotiating rights with $2.5M bid after Aoki was posted by Japan’s Yakult Swallows 1/12

agent: Nez Balelo

ML service: 1.000

 

So, with 151 games, and 119 starts, he should've recieved at least a portion of the $1.675MM in bonuses, which would mean this year's base would be somewhere around $2MM, with a good likelihood of reaching the $0.8375 in bonuses. Still a bargain, but just something I wasn't aware of.

 

Sorry to get off track.

[LouisEly]

The heck does Aoki have to do with developing pitching?

 

The more I think about it, the more I think it is development and not identification. They have drafted high-ceiling pitching (Rogers, Jeffress, Odorizzi, Frederickson, Covey), they have drafted HS pitching in rounds 2-8 (Hall, Lintz, Lasker, Anundsen, Hill, Inman, Gallardo, Langille, Parillo, Wooley, Marion) as well as college pitching. They have thrown enough against the wall for something more than Gallardo to stick.

[gregmag]

The heck does Aoki have to do with developing pitching?

 

The more I think about it, the more I think it is development and not identification. They have drafted high-ceiling pitching (Rogers, Jeffress, Odorizzi, Frederickson, Covey), they have drafted HS pitching in rounds 2-8 (Hall, Lintz, Lasker, Anundsen, Hill, Inman, Gallardo, Langille, Parillo, Wooley, Marion) as well as college pitching. They have thrown enough against the wall for something more than Gallardo to stick.

I'm not sure. I think Jeffress and Fredrickson were mistakes on draft day. Jeffress lacked maturity, which a smart organization should have been able to figure out. A lot of people criticized the Fredrickson pick right off the bat. For Covey I think everyone concerned gets a mulligan -- that's just a freakish situation -- but it was an identification problem if it was anything. Odorizzi has to count on the good side of the ledger, doesn't he, as a key component in the Greinke trade who still has a lot of value? Inman was on a strong developmental course when we traded him; the knock on him was there on draft day, that he just didn't have the stuff to succeed.

 

I don't know the other later-round guys you raised well enough, and your conclusion may well be right. But I do think we can see some scouting / identification problems if we look at some of those selections.

[LouisEly]

You're right, there were concerns about those guys, but I was speaking strictly to ceiling/potential. Some around here think that the Brewers have exclusively drafted high floor/low ceiling pitching and that is not true.

[monty57]

The heck does Aoki have to do with developing pitching?

 

The thread asks why we can't develop pitching, but makes the assumption that we've been good at developing position prospects. Aoki was a snippet of a post I made illustrating that other than the drafts made under Jack Z, the Brewers haven't been able to draft pitching or position players well.

 

Gord Ash was interviewed a month or so ago, and he admitted that they went after hitters early on, and then realized they were lacking in pitching, so they sort of went overboard on drafting pitching, so they spent last year's draft focusing on hitting. To me, that sounding like a really clueless way to draft, but it notes that the strategy early on was to draft hitters. So, whether Jack Z could've drafted pitching or not we'll never know, but during the one period in which we seemed to have a person who knew what he was doing, we went all-out drafting bats.

 

Since Jack went to Seattle, our focus has been on pitching, but either (A) the guys in charge don't know how to judge talent, (B) the guys in charge don't know how to develop talent and/or © instead of drafting high upside guys, we went for "high floor/low ceiling guys who had a good shot of getting to the majors quickly, even if they may not be all that good when they get there.

 

It's probably a mix of the three, but what we've now got are guys who could probably be in the majors soon, but as back-of-the-rotation starters... guys of the talent level around which we have found ways to block in the recent past (think the pitching version of Taylor Green). We'll have pitchers who we've developed who will be on our MLB team for the foreseeable future, so the problem of our never having any home-grown pitchers is coming to an end. They may be middle-to-back-of-the-rotation guys and middle relievers, but they'll be there. The thing is, we won't have any position players coming up to play with those pitchers.

 

We can look at each individual case and disect them, or we can say that the reason we don't have good talent in the system is due to failure at the top. Failure in planning, failure in evaluating and failure of executing.

 

If we could find management with a history of developing from within, I think we'd find out that the Brewers aren't jinxed.

[TheCrew07]

Some around here think that the Brewers have exclusively drafted high floor/low ceiling pitching and that is not true.

That's an over exaggeration of what's actually been said. You're combining 2 thoughts about different scouting directors into 1 idea, each had/has a different philosophy.

They have thrown enough against the wall for something more than Gallardo to stick.

Is that really true?

 

First everyone should go and read this article I linked to the other day. It's about hitting, but while everyone knows that college players are more likely to reach MLB, the impact potential between HS and college players are very, very close. The type of player you can get in the first round is dependent on draft position, in later rounds it's all about scouting.

 

I'm going to arbitrarily limit this to the top eleven because that's as far down in the draft that the Brewers have pulled an All-Star. I'm also excluding the Draft and Follow process which no longer exists but the Brewers did very well with. Manny Parra was a draft and follow player... Also, I don't see how we can say a player had impact potential if he never makes it out of A ball, to me that's a draft issue more than a developmental issue. As always impact potential is defined as #2 stuff or better.

 

Jack Zduriencik - 2000

1 - Dave Krynzel - OF - HS

3 - Dane Artman - LHP - HS

4 - Eric Henderson - LHP - College

5 - Jason Belcher - C - HS

6 - Brian Hicks - OF - HS

7 - Jerry Oakes - RHP - HS

8 - Bill Scott - OF - College

9 - Ryan Miller - RHP - College

10 - Brian Nielsen - LHP - HS

11 - Corey Hart - 1B - HS

Total: 0 impact pitchers. 3 HS pitchers, none made it past Beliot (A). 1 of the college pitchers made it to AA

 

Jack Zduriencik - 2001

1 - Mike Jones - RHP - HS

2 - J.J. Hardy - SS - HS

3 - Jon Steitz - RHP - College

4 - Brad Nelson - 1B - HS

5 - Judd Richardson - RHP - College

6 - Calvin Carpenter - RHP - HS

7 - Taylor McCormack - 3B - HS

8 - Brandon Gemoll - 1B - College

9 - Dennis Sarfate - RHP - Junior College

10 - Greg Moreira - RHP - HS

11 - David Slevin - 2B - JC

Total: 2 potential impact pitchers in Mike Jones and Dennis Sarfate.

 

Jack Zduriencik - 2002

1 - Prince Fielder - 1B - HS

2 - Josh Murray - SS - HS

3 - Eric Thomas - RHP - College

4 - Nick Carter - OF - College

5 - Jarrad Page - SS - HS

6 - Khalid Balloul - RHP - College

7 - Tom Wilhelmsen - RHP - HS

8 - Stephen Kahn - RHP - HS - Didn't sign

9 - Edwin Walker - RHP - HS

10 - Jeremy frost - C - College

11 - Brian Hernandez - C - HS

Total: 1 potential impact pitcher. 3 HS pitchers, 2 signed, Wilhelmsen was a potential impact pitcher but was let go for smoking weed before 2004

 

Jack Zduriencik - 2003

1 - Rickie Weeks - 2B - College

2 - Tony Gwynn - CF - College

3 - Lou Palmisano - C - JC

4 - Charlie Fermaint - OF - HS

5 - Bryan Opdyke - C - HS

6 - Robert Wooley - RHP - HS

7 - Brian Montalbo - RHP - College

8 - Ryan Marion - RHP - HS

9 - Greg Kloosterman - LHP - College

10 - Tyler Morrison - RHP - HS

11 - Adam Heether - 3B - College

Total: 3 HS pitchers, 0 impact pitchers.

 

Jack Zduriencik - 2004

1 - Mark Rogers - RHP - HS

2 - Yovani Gallardo - RHP - HS

3 - Joshua Wahpepah - RHP - JC

4 - Josh Baker - RHP - College

5 - Angel Salome - C - HS

6 - Stephen Chapman - OF - HS

7 - Craig Langille - RHP - HS

8 - Brandon Parillo - LHP - HS

9 - Derek DeCarlo - RHP - College

10 - Steve Sollmann - 2B - College

11 - Lenny Leclercq - SS - HS

Total: 2 potential impact pitchers. 4 HS pitchers, Rogers and Gallardo were top of the rotation guys, Wahpepah had #3 potential.

 

Jack Zduriencik - 2005

1 - Ryan Braun - 3B - College

3 - Will Inman - RHP - HS

4 - Mat Gamel - 3B - JC

5 - Kevin Robers - RHP - College

6 - Steve Hammond - LHP - College

7 - Michael Brantley - OF - HS

8 - Jemile Weeks - SS - HS

9 - Carlos Hereaud - 2B - HS

10 - Steve Garrison - LHP - HS

11 - Brent Allar - RHP - JC

Total: 0 potential impact pitchers, HS pitchers, both were 3s on draft day.

 

Jack Zduriencik - 2006

1 - Jeremy Jeffress - RHP - HS

2 - Brent Brewer - SS - HS

3 - Gole Gillespie - OF - College

4 - Evan Anundsen - RHP - HS

5 - Chris Errecart - OF - College

6 - Brae Wright - LHP - College

7 - Andy Bouchie - C - College

8 - Shane Hill - RHP - HS

9 - Shawn Ferguson - RHP - College

10 - Mike McClendon - RHP - JC

11 - Zach Clem - OF - College

Total: 1 impact pitcher. 3 HS pitchers, Jeffress was a potential impact pitcher, Anundsen has barely broken 90 MPH as a professional and I don't remember Hill at all.

 

Jack Zduriencik - 2007

1 - Matt LaPorta - 1B - College

3 - Jonathan Lucroy - C - College

4 - Eric Farris - 2B - College

5 - Caleb Gindl - OF - HS

6 - Dan Merklinger - LHP - College

7 - Efrain Nieves - LHP - HS

8 - David Fonseca - SS - JC

9 - Kristian Bueno - LHP - HS

10 - Eric Fryer - C - College

11 - Cody Scarpetta - RHP - HS

Total: 0 impact potential pitchers. 3 HS pitchers, Scarpetta had the biggest arm of the 3 but only worked 90-91 when I saw him pitch and had already filled out his frame.

 

Jack Zduriencik - 2008

1 - Brett Lawrie - C - HS

1s - Jake Odorizzi - RHP - HS

1s - Evan Frederickson - LHP - College

2 - Seth Lintz - RHP - HS

2 - Cutter Dykstra - 2B - HS

2 - Cody Adams - RHP - College

3 - Logan Schafer - OF - College

4 - Josh Romanski - LHP - College

5 - Maverick Lasker - RHP - HS

6 - Jose Duran - SS - College

7 - Trey Watten - RHP - College

8 - Erik Komatsu - OF - College

9 - Michael Bowman - RHP - College

10 - Greg Miller - LHP - College

11 - Michael Marseco - SS - College

Total: I'll settle at 3 potential impact pitchers on draft day. This is a tough draft, all 3 HS pitchers were working 90-92 on draft day and all had projectable frames, something that Brewers hadn't really done with previous HS pitchers in the later rounds. Adams was supposed to have #2 upside but it never materialized as his velocity was never as good as advertised, Frederickson turned out to be a workout wonder.

 

Buce Seid - 2009

1 - Eric Arnett - RHP - College

1s - Kentrail Davis - OF - College

1s - Kyle Heckathorn - RHP - College

2 - Max Walla - OF - HS

2 - Cameron Garfield - C - HS

3 - Josh Prince - SS - College

4 - Brooks Hall - RHP - HS

5 - D' Vontrey Richardson - OF - College

6 - Hiram Burgos - RHP - College

7 - Khris Davis - OF - College

8 - Chadwin Stang - OF - College

9 - Jonathan Pokorny - LHP - College

10 - Tyler Robers - C - HS

11 - Andre Lamontagne - RHP - College

Total: 1 legit impact pitcher on draft day. Arnett was a potential top of the rotation guy, if I'm honest with myself Heckathorn had the arm to be but none of the rest, and Hall has worked 87-92 as a professional.

 

Buce Seid - 2010

1 - Dylan Covey - RHP - HS - Well documented didn't sign

2 - Jimmy Nelson - RHP - College

3 - Tyler Thornburg - RHP - College

4 - Hunter Morris - 1B - College

5 - Matt Miller - RHP - College

6 - Cody Hawn - 1B - College

7 - Joel Pierce- RHP - HS

8 - Austin Ross - RHP - College

9 - Yadiel Rivera - SS - HS

10 - Rafael Neda - C - College

11 - Greg Holle - RHP - College

Total: 3 potential impact pitchers on draft day, Covey turned out to not have much projection left but still tops out around 96. PG things he's avalue pick in the 3rd this year.

 

Buce Seid - 2011

1 - Taylor Jungmann - RHP - College

1s - Jed Bradley - LHP - College

2 - Jorge Lopez - RHP - HS

3 - Drew Gagnon - RHP - College

4 - Nick Ramirez - 1B - College

5 - Michael Reed - CF - HS

6 - Daniel Keller - RHP - HS

7 - David Goforth - RHP - College

8 - Dustin Houle - C - HS

9 - Malcom Dowell - CF - HS

10 - Michael Strong - LHP - College

11 - Tommy Toledo - RHP - College

Total: 2 potential impact pitchers on draft day in Bradley and Lopez.

 

Buce Seid - 2012

1 - Clint Coulter - C - HS

1 - Victor Roache - OF - College

1s - Mitch Haniger - OF - College

2 - Tyrone Taylor - CF - HS

3 - Zach Quintana - RHP - HS

4 - Tyler Wagner - RHP - College

5 - Damien Magnifico - RHP - College

6 - Angel Ortega - SS - HS

7 - David Otterman - LHP - College

8 - Edgardo Rivera - CF - HS

9 - Alejandro Lavandero - RHP - HS

10 - Anthony Banda - LHP - JC

11 - Preston Gainey - RHP - College

Total: 0 impact pitchers on draft day. Quintana is a low 90s guy with little projection and Lavandero works 87-89 with some projection.

 

Jack Zduriencik

9 total potential impact pitchers in 9 drafts, 3 with #1 potential.

 

Bruce Seid

6 potential impact pitchers on draft day but none that profiled as 1s. Furthermore Arnett, Bradley, and Lopez foundered out of the gate plus Covey didn't sign, leaving us with just Thornburg and Nelson from Seid's drafts at this time.

 

Summary

Z went with high upside HS kids while Seid has taken higher floor college pitching for the most part.

 

With Z we never had enough high ceiling options at any one time but he did well supplementing pitching talent with the draft and follow process landing a multitude of prospects in Eveland, Parra, and Braddock. Seid doesn't have that option and he's gone with much more college pitching.

 

The Brewers haven't been great at developing talent but they certainly haven't drafted all that well either. Z left the organization with just 2 potential impact pitchers in Gallardo and Odorizzi, I don't think there's much hope for Rogers anymore, I'm finally ready to give up on him. Seid has Thornburg and Nelson who may be close to contributing but aren't there yet. Internationally though that entire time frame we've signed and delivered 1 prospect with impact potential in Peralta. Since 2000 that's 2 pitchers drafted or signed by the organization that were developed whom will surely pitch more than a handful of games as starting pitcher for the big club with 2 more possibilities.

 

I think it's pretty obvious given the high flame out rate for pitchers that we simply haven't had enough numbers to realistically have a shot at a home grown rotation. If 2/3 of those guys are going to flame due to injury or ineffectiveness we just never had enough, and since we didn't have enough options for starting pitching, we were left with few bullpen options as well. Better pitching development would certainly help but when you're behind the 8 ball to start with I don't think you can just pick 1 or the other in terms of drafting and/or development. It's basically the entire strategy which has been at fault.

[The stache]

^^^^ excellent analysis, thecrew!

 

http://www.reactiongifs.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/joker.gif

 

I'm starting to think when it comes to the Brewers and pitching development, it's been a perfect storm of sorts.

 

We've not drafted a lot of high ceiling pitchers (poor talent evaluation).

We've done a poor job of developing the pitchers we have drafted (poor coaching)

We've had some pretty serious injury issues with the pitchers we've drafted (poor coaching, and maybe insufficient conditioning).

 

It's looking like we're dropping the ball in several key areas. That's a big concern going forward.

[LouisEly]

TheCrew, how many guys with #1 potential who don't have some type of concerns do you think there are in any draft? It seems like based on your criticism that you think they are bound and plentiful several rounds deep. Guys with #1 potential who don't have some type of concerns go in the top 10. Once you get past #10, depending on the depth and talent of any particular year, you have to gamble that a high velocity guy will be able to develop plus secondary pitches, a wild guy will be able to develop control, a low velocity guy will be able to add velocity or develop an outstanding change, or an immature guy will grow up and make good decisions. Other than the last of those four, that is development, not identification.

 

I can't tell based on your analysis who you think the three guys were who had #1 potential that Jack Z. drafted (or who in your opinion are the "potential" impact pitchers), but if one of them was Rogers he was a top 10 pick, something Seid has not had the luxury of having. In two of Seid's drafts he hasn't picked until at least #26, and one of the others was Covey who didn't sign so his first pick that year wasn't until #64. How many #1 guys do you expect to still be around at #26, #27, and #64?

[RockCoCougars]

Nice analysis Crew. Let's go past the #1 ace type potential pitchers for a moment, and just look at any serviceable starting pitchers that have come from recent drafts (when I say recent, I mean this century). The cupboard has been bare. Bottom line, how many guys have the Brewers drafted in recent years who have even went on to make 30 starts in the bigs? Gallardo and.... pretty pathetic. Everyone made it out like the Bando regime had no clue when it came to drafting and player development (and there's a lot of validity to that), but even they had a better track record of drafting and developing young pitching... which isn't saying much.

[nate82]

It is not like Ash is bad at the draft:

 

Draft Picks

 

1st Round

 

1995: 17th overall P Roy Halladay - Arvada West High School

1996: 4th overall P Billy Koch - Clemson University

1996: 16th overall SS Joe Lawrence - Barbe High School

1996: 31st overall 1B Peter Tucci - Providence College

1997: 5th overall OF Vernon Wells - Bowie High School

1998: 8th overall 3B Felipe Lopez - Lake Brantley High School

1999: 19th overall OF Alexis Rios - San Pedro Martir High School

2000: 18th overall OF Miguel Negron - Manuela Toro High School

2000: 33rd overall P Dustin McGowan - Long County High School

2001: 15th overall OF Gabe Gross - Auburn University

 

Other Notable Selections

 

1995: 10th round (272nd overall) 2B Ryan Freel - Tallahassee Community College

1997: 5th round (149th overall) SS Michael Young - University of California, Santa Barbara

1997: 43rd round (1280th overall) SS Orlando Hudson - Spartanburg Methodist College

1998: 14th round (411th overall) 1B Jay Gibbons - California State University, Los Angeles

1999: 17th round (523rd overall) OF Reed Johnson - California State University, Fullerton

[brewmann04]

Wow with that list you can see why the brewers have no really potential top rotation guys. Hopefully this year they can find some of those arms. Keep drafting arms.

[TheCrew07]

TheCrew, how many guys with #1 potential who don't have some type of concerns do you think there are in any draft? It seems like based on your criticism that you think they are bound and plentiful several rounds deep.

 

When have I ever claimed there was a sure thing in the draft? I rarely make definitive statements about any prospects let alone draft picks. I don't have a problem with Z drafting Jones, Rogers, or Jeffress at all, to get a great player you have to take some risks and miss. My problem with Z is that they drafted a bunch of control HS and College pitchers... 9 pitchers with impact potential in all those years just wasn't enough, even when you toss in the Draft and Follow guys like Parra, Braddock, Eveland, and Bryson. We have to take couple impact pitchers every year, probably more like 3, in our top 10 players. Some of those guys won't make it at all, some will be back of the rotation guys, some relievers, and some will be exactly what we're looking for.

 

As for where in the draft, we had a shot with a potential #1 in Rondon at in the 16th round and we didn't pony up the extra bonus money necessary to sign him, Matt Moore was an 8th round pick he's a solid #2 maybe a #1, some scouts think his stuff is better than David Price. Jeremy Hellickson was a 4th round pick as was Alex Cobb. Finally Cleveland drafted Chris Archer in the 5th round, and that's just the later round impact pitchers off the top of the my head from the Rays. Pitchers with impact potential aren't falling out of trees after the first 2 rounds, but they are definitely out there.

 

Let's face it, the Brewers just stink at identifying pitchers, we aren't going to be able to target 1 or 2 guys and get it done. For example, Brooks Hall and Evan Anundsen supposedly had projectable frames but each actually lost velocity as professionals, that's an issue of the player being targeted, not the development process. I'm no fan of the MiLB Management staff the Brewers have in place, but at least the things that are going on now make sense as opposed to when Nichols was solely in charge... pitching tandems in A ball, OF playing the OF and not DHing everyday like Brantley did, and so on. These are good things, Matt Erickson has 4 legitimate OF prospects in WI and manages to get them all equal playing time in the field, that sort of thing wasn't happening before.

 

Every draftee has warts, and I'm not so concerned with that fact as I am the players in particular that Seid is drafting. We've hammered on the 2011 draft on the minor league forum but the HS pitcher taken between Jungmann and Bradley Jose Fernandez is already up pitching in MLB, Sonny Gray was taken #18, Matt Barnes at #19, and Taylor Guerrieri #24. That's 4 potential impact pitchers and we drafted 2 guys we're hoping are potential #3s, Fernandez has everything to be an Ace and he was right there for the picking. Another player that posters around here wanted in C.J. Cron who's a beast with the bat thus far was drafted at #17.

 

Over the entire Z/Seid era we graduated exactly 1 pitcher out of Latin America to MLB, that's not going to get it done either. In fact in that time frame we've only graduated 2 players in Escobar and Peralta. I think Arcia has a legit shot, I really like him, but he's in A ball now and anything can happen.

 

Once more I don't mind swinging and missing on talented pitchers, I've posted many times that I liked and still liked the Rogers pick, but I also acknowledge that I like the pick for selfish reasons, if I'm honest about the selection from a macro point of view he probably wasn't the best choice at that draft position.

 

I've put quite a bit of time into looking at who and what type of player different organizations draft and sign out of Latin America, there's no way I could fit a breakdown like that into a single post. I will say however that the draft position excuse is a complete fallacy no matter what team it is applied to. Many teams that have drafted behind the Brewers on a year basis have been able to develop more pitching and much deeper farm systems from an impact talent standpoint. Draft position is great, it worked out wonderfully for the Nationals, but good scouting and player development trumps draft position. The Rays aren't lucky, nor are the Cards, or Cincy, or San Fran, nor are the teams that do much better in Latin America. It's about devoting resources and hiring the right people, not draft position.

 

Nate... Gabe Gross as a good selection? A 4th OF at 15 overall? He has a career WAR of 5.1... The point here is really impact talent. And Tim Wilken drafted most of Toronto's impact talent including Roy Halladay and is widely regarded as one of the finest talent evaluators in baseball, and has continued that trend helping the Rays in the early 2000s and now with the Cubs, which stinks.

[LouisEly]

I'll give you Jose Fernandez, but is it good for him to be rushed to the majors so quickly? And would he have signed with a club that wasn't so close to home? Guerreri is putting up nice numbers for a 20-year-old in low A; let's wait until he gets to AA to declare him an impact pitcher. But you say Sonny Gray and Matt Barnes are impact pitchers, and Taylor Jungmann is not? Let's take a look at their AA numbers, excluding the start where Jungmann was put on the DL immediately after the game:

 

Pitcher A: 9.0 H/9, 0.5 HR/9, 3.5 BB/9, 5.9 K/9, 1.385 WHIP, 4.14 ERA, GO/AO 1.65

Pitcher B: 9.7 H/9, 0.7 HR/9, 3.2 BB/9, 10.9K/9, 1.432 WHIP, 4.62 ERA, GO/AO 0.77

Pitcher C: 6.7 H/9, 0.3 HR/9, 4.6 BB/9, 4.6 K/9, 1.258 WHIP, 3.77 ERA, GO/AO 2.23

 

So you're telling me that two of these three are impact pitchers and one is not? Obviously based on K/9 Pitcher B is not Jungmann, and while that pitcher has the highest K/9 of the group he also has the highest H/9, HR/9, and by far the lowest ground out/fly out ratio - is that the type of pitcher you want pitching in Miller Park?

[nate82]

Nate... Gabe Gross as a good selection? A 4th OF at 15 overall? He has a career WAR of 5.1... The point here is really impact talent. And Tim Wilken drafted most of Toronto's impact talent including Roy Halladay and is widely regarded as one of the finest talent evaluators in baseball, and has continued that trend helping the Rays in the early 2000s and now with the Cubs, which stinks.

 

I wasn't really saying it was a good or bad selection I was just pointing out Ash's overall draft selections as he was the GM of the Blue Jays for awhile. I am not sure if Ash is rather good at looking for pitchers in the draft as he only has drafted Halladay and McGowan of note or if he is just very unlucky. Maybe I should have put that post in blue to add some sarcasm to it but I believe Ash is not the correct person for the Brewers at this time in his current role.

 

As I stated in the other forum I think it is time for a change in management as Melvin's crew looks to be getting old. There needs to be a change in management as it is time for a change and to get new ideas into the fold. Thad Levine the Assistant GM of the Rangers or Matt Arnold the director of pro scouting for the Rays are my top two choices for a change in management. The reason I like Matt Arnold is that he is both a sabermetric guy and scout guy. This interview though it is old it is one of the reasons why I would love to have him as the next GM or even assistant GM for the Brewers.

 

I believe the Brewers have drafted some good players though their ceilings are not as high as some would like but they are still quality pitchers. I am not ready to give up on Bradley, Jungmann, or Lopez yet and I believe that at least one of them will be contributing to the Brewers either in terms of a trade or actually on the team. I believe the Brewers need to focus more on higher potential than higher floors. Eric Arnett is one of the worst picks the Brewers have had in a long time. I still believe the Brewers need to draft and develop positional players and make trades for the impact pitching. Yes the young impact pitching is at a premium right now but there are still teams out there that have impact pitching but do not have impact hitting. The Rays were one of these teams that did not have the impact hitting but had an abundance of impact pitching. Right now the Brewers do not have either and with the record of the Brewers getting impact pitching in the minors being rather bad and their success of drafting and developing hitters being rather high the Brewers really should be focusing on position players and flipping them for the pitching they need. The A's are probably a better team to trade with right now than the Rays and the same could be said with the Orioles.

[TheCrew07]

Sonny Gray and Matt Barnes are impact pitchers, and Taylor Jungmann is not?

 

No, I said the potential to be, Jungmann is clearly not the pitcher the Brewers billed him as, I've covered the issues with him ad-nauseum on the MiLB forum. You may not agree with that assessment which is fine, but I don't get any enjoyment out of continually repeating myself about Jungmann's future because it reads like I'm trashing the young man when that's not my intent.

 

Topic orientated snipits from BA's scouting reports from this off season:

Sonny Gray: ...His pure stuff isn’t a problem, as he has a 91-95 mph fastball that reaches 97 and features some sink and natural cutting action. He also has a knockout curveball, and he can vary both its velocity (76-84 mph) and shape. His changeup has depth but he still doesn’t fully trust it. He needs to do a better job of setting hitters up. Gray did finish last season on a solid note, pitching well in a Triple-A playoff game. He’ll go back to Sacramento to open 2013 and still can reach his ceiling of a No. 2 starter as long as he irons out his command.

Matt Barnes: ...Barnes pitches aggressively with his swing-and-miss fastball. He effortlessly throws heaters with riding life, usually sitting at 93-95 mph and topping out at 98. The Red Sox had him scrap a slider he started to fiddle with in college and had him focus on throwing his hard curveball, a plus downer at times. Barnes is learning the need for a changeup, which he throws a bit too hard in the upper 80s but sells well with his arm speed. He’s not afraid to throw strikes or pitch inside. If Barnes can refine his secondary pitches, he can become a No. 2 or 3 starter. After easing him into pro ball with 120 innings, Boston will turn him loose in 2013. He’ll start in Double-A and could push for a spot in the big league rotation by the end of the season.

 

Yes I believe pitchers with second tier fastballs and whom flash plus secondary pitches have the potential to be #2 starters. A statistical analysis of the pitchers is about 1/3 the story.

 

Why would you throw Jungmann's stats back at me after I posted this last week? Like I somehow forgot what he throws and what his stat line is? Wouldn't the original thread have been a better spot for that discussion instead of recycling the same argument back here?

 

And since you left him off, here's the relevant scouting report on Taylor Guerrieri:

...Guerrieri pitched at 90-95 with his fastball in his first pro summer. His two-seamer has hard, late sink and armside run, and he does an excellent job of spotting it on both sides of the plate and down in the strike zone. His sharp 77-81 mph curveball has good depth and is a swing-and-miss offering at times. His changeup has a chance to give him a third plus pitch as he incorporates it more into his repertoire. Guerrieri has a solid delivery and ideal pitcher’s body, and he walked just five batters in his 12 starts. He displays a strong competitive drive and there were no issues with his makeup in 2012. A potential frontline starter, Guerrieri should open 2013 at low Class A Bowling Green

.

[sveumrules]

So between this thread and a recent conversation about how Ben Sheets and Yovani Gallardo (we didn't count Higuera since he was already successful in the Mexican League when we signed him) were the only thing even remotely resembling front line starters drafted and developed by the Brewers in our lifetime, I decided to run a statistical query. I used 1986 as the starting point as my earliest baseball memories are pulling an Ernie Riles from my first ever pack of baseball cards (1986 Topps) and that years infamous Fall Classic. The only other requirement I imposed was a 550 IP minimum between then and now. I then sorted the results by FIP.

 

While determining which organizations are the best at drafting and developing pitching talent is a huge undertaking I figured this relatively quick and dirty methodology could give a good starting point. Using this criteria Yo and Benny came in at 89th (3.64) and 96th (3.66) respectively. The 550 IP minimum puts a lot of relievers who had long careers into the mix, which I think is appropriate given many relievers are drafted high as starters and converted to (or developed into) relievers for one reason or another along the way. As for sorting by FIP, while there is no single metric perfect for evaluating pitching, I feel it best encapsulates what teams are looking for when drafting pitchers; guys who can get strikeouts while limiting walks and home runs.

 

Given the limits on my query this list also includes a fair number of players who finished their careers in the late 1980's and as such were drafted in the early 1970's. While these players don't necessarily tell us anything about the state of things in 2013 and moving forward, it is interesting to note that some franchises who are generally considered to be as pitching poor as the Brewers have had periods where they were actually quite successful in developing pitchers.

 

For the purposes of the list I decided to split credit for some pitchers as while they were drafted by one organization they were "developed" by another. This is obviously very arbitrary, but an easy example is Johan Santana. In my methodology the Astros get credit for drafting him while the Twins get credit for "developing" him. Here are the full results with the number after the team abbreviation representing their total players in the sample and the number after each players name representing their overall rank on the FIP list. I was going to stop after Sheeter at 96 but ran it out to 120 to get a slightly bigger sample...

 

LAD (11) : Pedro Martinez (8), Clayton Kershaw (10), John Wetteland (22), Alejandro Pena (30), John Franco (54), Sid Fernandez (69), Eric Gagne (75), Hiroki Kuroda (77), Chad Billingsley (97), Darren Holmes (115), Jeff Nelson (116). 11 drafted, 0 developed, 5 starters, 6 relievers.

NYM (9) : Nolan Ryan (6), Heath Bell (11), Mike Scott (20), Randy Myers (35), Terry Leach (58) Sid Fernandez (69), Dwight Gooden (82), Rick Aguilera (93), Octavio Dotel (106). 7 drafted, 2 developed, 4 starters, 5 relievers.

MON (9) : Pedro Martinez (8), Randy Johnson (21), John Wetteland (22), Tim Burke (50), Cliff Lee (65), Bryn Smith (70), Norm Charlton (81), Ugueth Urbina (104), Jeff Parrett (118). 4 drafted, 5 developed, 3 starters, 6 relievers.

KCR (8) : Bret Saberhagen (33), Zack Greinke (49), Steve Farr (67), David Cone (71), Jeff Montgomery (76), Charlie Leibrandt (83), Mark Gubicza (92), Tom Gordon (109). 5 drafted, 3 developed, 5 starters, 3 relievers.

ATL (8) : Duane Ward (5), Adam Wainwright (24), John Smoltz (27), Greg Maddux (31), Paul Assenmacher (34), Mark Wohlers (53), Terry Leach (58), Zane Smith (78). 6 drafted, 2 deveoped, 4 starters, 4 relievers.

SFG (8) : Tim Lincecum (19), Madison Bumgarner (23), Joe Nathan (42), Scott Garrelts (79), Jeff Robinson (107), Matt Cain (108), Francisco Liriano (110), Keith Foulke (111). 8 drafted, 0 developed, 4 starters, 4 relievers.

PIT (8) : Randy Tomlin (45), John Candelaria (47), Tim Burke (50), Steve Farr (67), Rick Honeycutt (73), Don Robinson (100), John Smiley (102), Jose Deleon (112). 8 drafted, 0 developed, 4 starters, 4 relievers.

CIN (8) : Trevor Hoffman (15), Jose Rijo (29), John Franco (54), Rob Murphy (56), Jeff Montgomery (76), Norm Charlton (81), Charlie Leibrandt (83), Ron Robinson (85). 5 drafted, 3 developed, 2 starters, 6 relievers.

STL (7) : Adam Wainwright (24), Jaime Garcia (40), Todd Worrell (43), John Tudor (86), Bob Tewksbury (94), Dan Haren (95), Jose Deleon (112). 3 drafted, 4 developed, 6 starters, 1 reliever.

BOS (7) : Rafael Betancourt (12), Roger Clemens (17), Curt Schilling (25), Bruce Hurst (62), Bobby Ojeda (66), John Tudor (86), Jon Lester (105). 7 drafted, 0 developed, 6 starters, 1 reliever.

HOU (7) : Billy Wagner (3), Mike Scott (20), Brad Lidge (32), Roy Oswalt (38), Johan Santana (46), Shane Reynolds (103), Octavio Dotel (106). 5 drafted, 2 developed, 4 starters, 3 relievers.

DET (6) : John Smoltz (27), Justin Verlander (39), Mike Henneman (48), Doug Fister (51), Francisco Cordero (84), Max Scherzer (91). 4 drafted, 2 developed, 4 starters, 2 relievers.

MIL (6) : Doug Jones (16), Teddy Higuera (49), Dan Plesac (52), Yovani Gallardo (89), Ben Sheets (96), Jeff Parrett (118). 6 drafted, 0 developed, 3 starters, 3 relievers.

CLE (6) : Larry Andersen (1), Dennis Eckersley (7), Rafael Betancourt (12), Doug Jones (16), CC Sabathia (59), Cliff Lee (65). 3 drafted, 3 developed, 2 starters, 4 relievers.

CHC (5) : Lee Smith (14), Greg Maddux (31), Mark Prior (41), Rick Reuschel (61), Dennis Lamp (68). 5 drafted, 0 developed, 3 starters, 2 relievers.

SD (5) : Heath Bell (11), Trevor Hoffman (15), Mat Latos (55), Jake Peavy (60), Bob Patterson (113). 3 drafted, 2 developed, 2 starters, 3 relievers.

SEA (4) : Randy Johnson (21), Felix Hernandez (28), Doug Fister (51), Erik Hanson (88). 3 drafted, 1 developed, 4 starters, 0 relievers.

NYY (4) : Mariano Rivera (4), Jose Rijo (29), Bob Tewksbury (94), Andy Pettite (120). 4 drafted, 0 developed, 3 starters, 1 reliever.

FLA (4) : Rob Nenn (9), Josh Johnson (26), Anibal Sanchez (98), Josh Beckett (117). 3 drafted, 1 developed, 3 starters, 1 reliever.

MIN (4) : Johan Santana (46), Frank Viola (80), Rick Aguilera (93), Francisco Liriano (110). 1 drafted, 3 developed, 3 starters, 1 reliever.

PHI (4) : Larry Andersen (1), Curt Schilling (25), Cole Hamels (87), Ryan Madson (101). 2 drafted, 2 developed, 2 starters, 2 relievers.

BAL (4) : Bryn Smith (70), Mike Mussina (72), Gregg Olson (99), Dennis Martinez (114). 4 drafted, 0 developed, 2 starters, 2 relievers.

OAK (4) : Dennis Eckersley (7), Rick Honeycutt (73), Dan Haren (95), Gio Gonzalez (119). 4 developed, 0 drafted, 2 starters, 2 relievers.

TOR (4) : Tom Henke (2), Duane Ward (5), Mark Eichorn (18), Roy Halladay (37). 2 drafted, 2 developed, 1 starter, 3 relievers.

TEX (4) : Tom Henke (2), Rob Nenn (9), Kevin Brown (36), Francisco Cordero (84). 3 drafted, 1 developed, 1 starter, 3 relievers.

ARI (3) : Brandon Webb (57), Jose Valverde (64), Max Scherzer (91). 3 drafted, 0 developed, 2 starters, 1 reliever.

LAA (3) : Francisco Rodriguez (13), Scot Shields (74), Jered Weaver (99). 3 drafted, 0 developed, 1 starter, 2 relievers.

CHW (2) : Keith Foulke (111), Gio Gonzalez (119). 1 drafted, 1 developed, 1 starter, 1 reliever.

TB (1) : David Price (63). 1 drafted, 0 developed, 1 starter, 0 relievers.

COL (0) : Nobody. 0 drafted, 0 developed, 0 starters, 0 relievers.a

[LouisEly]

Nice work sveum. Just curious, there are some names off the top of my head I don't see on the list and I'm wondering if they were omissions or somehow didn't make the cut: Tom Glavine, C.J. Wilson, Barry Zito, Orel Hersheiser, James Shields, Carlos Zambrano, Tim Hudson, Chris Carpenter, Ryan Dempster.

[sveumrules]

The highest FIP in my arbitrary 120 player sample ended up being 3.75. The guys you mentioned LouisEly all came in between 3.79 (Hudson) and 4.32 (Zito) for the 1986-2013 timeframe, so they missed the cut by varying degrees. It ended up being about a 70/50 split of starters to relievers in the sample. I might rerun the query with a higher minimum IP (maybe around 950 since Yo is currently at 968) to ferret out some of the relievers and see how the results look.

[Bombers]

 

As I stated in the other forum I think it is time for a change in management as Melvin's crew looks to be getting old. There needs to be a change in management as it is time for a change and to get new ideas into the fold. Thad Levine the Assistant GM of the Rangers or Matt Arnold the director of pro scouting for the Rays are my top two choices for a change in management. The reason I like Matt Arnold is that he is both a sabermetric guy and scout guy. This interview though it is old it is one of the reasons why I would love to have him as the next GM or even assistant GM for the Brewers.

I agree with this. I also think it is time for a change in management. And not just a single person change. I honestly believe we might have to scrap our whole pitching department from scouting through coaches and start new. I am sure there are a few guys you could keep but when you have 10 years of drafting bad pitching you need to make a change. In the end, there were just to many years where we walk away with nothing from the draft.

[The stache]

I've had similar thoughts recently, Bombers.

 

If the Brewers truly want to establish themselves as a winning franchise, they cannot accept the status quo when it is not working. As I've said before, we cannot afford to be big players in free agency. We need to draft and develop, and keep our own talent. And we need young, talented players consistently moving through the pipeline. If the Rays can stay competitive in the AL East with their payroll, if the A's can stay competitive in the AL West with their payroll, we can do it, too. But does Mark Attanasio have the audacity for such a radical overhaul?

[RightFieldCoder]

It would involve trading players when they are still good and still have a year or two left. I don't think MA or DM have it in them.

[The stache]

Meanwhile, the Cardinals are beating the Padres 5-0 in the 6th. Their starting pitcher, Tyler Lyon, who I've never even heard of (9th round draft pick from Oklahoma State in 2010, the 289th pick overall) is throwing a three hit shutout in his Major League debut.

 

The Cardinals keep finding pitchers, and we can't find one decent one.