Why are we so bad at developing pitchers?

[monty57]

I think the biggest issue is the Brewers haven't had top-5 draft pick position for a long time.

 

And the Cardinals have? In the last nine years, they've been to the World Series three times, winning two of them. And in two other seasons, they made it to the league Championship series. Six of the last nine years, they've been to the playoffs. They're not drafting in the top 5, yet their pitching prospects absolutely blow ours out of the water. Shelby Miller is better than any pitching prospect the Brewers have had in the last decade, including Gallardo.

 

So how are they able to do it? Is it luck? Or maybe they just know pitching talent when they see it, and know how to develop it.

 

This is kind my whole problem with how Melvin managed the Brewers. We had a once in a generation chance to get a lot of talent by getting high draft picks. We made good use of those draft picks and infused a lot of talent into the system. Once they made the major leagues, the team got a lot better. That's all good.

 

Instead of looking long-term, the Brewers then decided that they would do everything possible to win in a short-term window. Always trading prospects for short-term veterans, and never trading short-term veterans for prospects, instead letting them walk in free agency or extending them to high-priced contracts that take them past their prime. Signing high-priced free agents, never giving opportunities to prospects unless they were absolute studs, or injuries forced their hand, drafting "high floor / low ceiling" guys, etc.

 

To your St Louis example, the Cardinals always seem to have some guys like Descalso or Schumacher starting for them, but we felt we couldn't let someone like Taylor Green start if we wanted to have a chance of winning. That has led us to having a one-dimensional team with most of our payroll tied up in aging position players.

 

The Cardinals seem to have a long-term approach, while our strategy seems to be to wait until the last minute, extend anyone who will extend, letting everyone else walk, and then patch the holes that are left in the roster either through free agency or by trading prospects for a short-term vet. When the Cards get a short-term guy, it's usually a low risk/high reward signing like Berkman, Furcal or Carpenter, where if it pays off, it pays off big (possibly leading to an extension), but if it doesn't pay off it doesn't cost them much. When they make a big splash (Holiday), they fit it into the long-term plan, extending him when they know they will lose Pujols. The Brewers trade the farm for "sure thing" guys who they'll only have for a short-frame, leaving the cupboard bare when they leave, or sign FAs who will be past their prime when the deal's in it's finals year(s), leaving them with dead money and bad players blocking younger guys. The only short-term/potential high reward signing I can think of for Melvin is Gagne, and for some reason he paid him $10MM, so it wasn't really low risk.

 

The window strategy may give you a better chance at making the playoffs for a few years, but it leaves you with a depleted farm system and a lot of guys who are past their prime, but are guaranteed eight figure salaries. Pretty much where the Brewers are now.

 

As I mentioned earlier, it isn't just pitchers the Brewers have had trouble drafting. Other than the "first wave" guys Jack Z drafted, we have a pretty poor history of drafting anyone good. It would seem that spending big money to steal a "draft guru" from a team that does well (like teams did to us taking all of Jack's guys) would be a good idea. But, we seem hell-bent on giving Seid a long leash to "prove himself." So if you can't draft well, you need to find other ways to stock the system, and the Brewers have done the opposite of that.

 

At some point, we are going to need to make a change, and the longer it takes, the more drastic the change will have to be. Eventually, the "restock" turns into a full-blown "tear down the house and rebuild."

[homer]

I've ranted on this before here, so I'll keep it brief... but in a nutshell, the Brewers have never been able to develop pitching. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong... but as far as I can tell, this franchise has never drafted a single 20 game winner. I know they've had some bad luck with injuries, etc., and that wins are somewhat overrated, but that is a pathetic stat.

 

I was knocking back a couple of brews with my Brewer savant friend tonight, and this discussion came up. He quickly pointed out that I was wrong, and that the Brewers have in fact drafted one twenty game winner. In the realm of Brewer trivia, this would be a great & difficult question... any guesses for bragging rights?

 

Did he win 20 games for the Brewers or someone else?

[Baldkin]

I've ranted on this before here, so I'll keep it brief... but in a nutshell, the Brewers have never been able to develop pitching. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong... but as far as I can tell, this franchise has never drafted a single 20 game winner. I know they've had some bad luck with injuries, etc., and that wins are somewhat overrated, but that is a pathetic stat.

 

I was knocking back a couple of brews with my Brewer savant friend tonight, and this discussion came up. He quickly pointed out that I was wrong, and that the Brewers have in fact drafted one twenty game winner. In the realm of Brewer trivia, this would be a great & difficult question... any guesses for bragging rights?

 

Did he win 20 games for the Brewers or someone else?

 

Drafted but never signed. I do believe..... and won 20 for the team we're complaining about not being like.

[The stache]

 

Drafted but never signed. I do believe..... and won 20 for the team we're complaining about not being like.

 

Right, he was drafted, never signed, then drafted again three years later by the Cards.

 

If Peralta ends up winning 20, the streak will still continue, as he wasn't drafted, either.

[DHonks]

The 'Stache, I found it frustrating you wrote "gone" by Lawrie, Jeffress, and LaPorta. They aren't really gone, as that implies ineffective. They were highly valuable trading chips that allowed us to add all-stars.

[Thurston Fluff]

If Peralta ends up winning 20, the streak will still continue, as he wasn't drafted, either.

 

Perhaps I'm wrong but I think most people look at foreign players who were brought into the system as young, raw players the same as drafting them. Guys like Chapman or Darvish are a little different in that they came pretty much major league ready but guys like Peralta, Cueto and Rivera had to be discovered and developed just like drafted players do.

[RockCoCougars]

If Peralta ends up winning 20, the streak will still continue, as he wasn't drafted, either.

 

Perhaps I'm wrong but I think most people look at foreign players who were brought into the system as young, raw players the same as drafting them. Guys like Chapman or Darvish are a little different in that they came pretty much major league ready but guys like Peralta, Cueto and Rivera had to be discovered and developed just like drafted players do.

 

That's true, but I'd argue the Brewers' track record in this is far worse than the draft even. Outside of Higuera, who is the last above average player they have picked up this way and developed? Maybe I'm missing someone, but I'm thinking Sixto Lezcano.

[The stache]

The 'Stache, I found it frustrating you wrote "gone" by Lawrie, Jeffress, and LaPorta. They aren't really gone, as that implies ineffective. They were highly valuable trading chips that allowed us to add all-stars.

 

They are gone, as they are no longer in the Milwaukee Brewer organization. Nothing beyond that fact was implied.

[JimH5]

I've ranted on this before here, so I'll keep it brief... but in a nutshell, the Brewers have never been able to develop pitching. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong... but as far as I can tell, this franchise has never drafted a single 20 game winner. I know they've had some bad luck with injuries, etc., and that wins are somewhat overrated, but that is a pathetic stat.

 

I was knocking back a couple of brews with my Brewer savant friend tonight, and this discussion came up. He quickly pointed out that I was wrong, and that the Brewers have in fact drafted one twenty game winner. In the realm of Brewer trivia, this would be a great & difficult question... any guesses for bragging rights?

 

Did he win 20 games for the Brewers or someone else?

 

 

Matt Morris drafted in the 26th round in 1992. Cards drafted him 12th overall in 1995. He won 22 games in 2001.

 

Great trivia question! That one took some digging...

[RockCoCougars]

Nice work, Jim! The first Bando draft. I think that this question may win me some free drinks at the bar from my friends when we are playing Brewer trivia.

[The stache]

That one took some digging...

 

Ya, it really did, especially after looking at his baseball reference page, which showed the Cardinals drafted him. I had to go through a season by season draft for the Brewers, sorting for career wins, until I saw Morris's name again.

[RightFieldCoder]

To be fair, Sheets should have 20 if we had anyone that could hit in 04.

[Ennder]

A significant part of Capuano's downfall was chasing 20 wins, one of the dumber things we've done to a pitcher in recent memory. Lets take a guy coming off of arm surgery pitch extra late in the season when his arm is tired and we aren't trying to compete just to chase some silly personal milestone.

[The stache]

To be fair, Sheets should have 20 if we had anyone that could hit in 04.

 

Yes, he would have. Damn, I wish Sheets had come out a few years later. Benny has long been one of my favorite Brewers.

 

Ennder, I agree. We pushed him too hard.

[Baldkin]

If Peralta ends up winning 20, the streak will still continue, as he wasn't drafted, either.

 

Perhaps I'm wrong but I think most people look at foreign players who were brought into the system as young, raw players the same as drafting them. Guys like Chapman or Darvish are a little different in that they came pretty much major league ready but guys like Peralta, Cueto and Rivera had to be discovered and developed just like drafted players do.

 

That's true, but I'd argue the Brewers' track record in this is far worse than the draft even. Outside of Higuera, who is the last above average player they have picked up this way and developed? Maybe I'm missing someone, but I'm thinking Sixto Lezcano.

 

Escobar.

[RockCoCougars]

I forgot all about Escobar.

[daintrain28]

I was actually wondering the same thing myself when I stumbled across this post.

 

I'm no expert, but here's my take.

 

Either a) there are fundamental problems with our farm system's pitching coaching, or b) there are fundamental flaws with Doug Melvin's ability to judge pitching talent.

 

For how good Melvin is at judging hitting, he seems to struggle at judging pitching.

 

A thought to fix this. Perhaps the Crew should look for a manager with a pitching background? Perhaps this person could balance Melvin's ability to build a lineup, and shortcomings in the farm system.

 

Just an idea.

[The stache]

The Brewers definitely need to find a new manager, because RRR is about as bad as it gets. A manager with a pitching background, somebody that actually knows how to manage a bullpen, would be very nice.

 

But who's available?

[LouisEly]

Promote Marcus Hanel

[jerichoholicninja]

Not really sure how your major league manager has much to anything to do with developing pitchers since they are basically developed by the time he gets them.

[The stache]

Not really sure how your major league manager has much to anything to do with developing pitchers since they are basically developed by the time he gets them.

 

You're right, a manager with a pitching background might not help in the development of pitchers. But he might have a better feel for how a pitcher's really doing. At this point, I'm looking for improvement anywhere I can get it. And Ron Roenicke seems completely enamored with John Axford. He just doesn't have it right now, for whatever the reason, yet Ron keeps putting him in there. And we keep getting burned.

 

It's like handing a child a live grenade, and being somewhat surprised when he gets his hand blown off. If Ron wants to get him out of his funk, send him down to Nashville, and let him get some real game work in where it doesn't put the big league club further in the hole.

[3and2Fastball]

The Brewers definitely need to find a new manager, because RRR is about as bad as it gets. A manager with a pitching background, somebody that actually knows how to manage a bullpen, would be very nice.

 

But who's available?

 

Mike Maddux. Dave Righetti.

[jerichoholicninja]

Not really sure how your major league manager has much to anything to do with developing pitchers since they are basically developed by the time he gets them.

 

You're right, a manager with a pitching background might not help in the development of pitchers. But he might have a better feel for how a pitcher's really doing. At this point, I'm looking for improvement anywhere I can get it. And Ron Roenicke seems completely enamored with John Axford. He just doesn't have it right now, for whatever the reason, yet Ron keeps putting him in there. And we keep getting burned.

 

It's like handing a child a live grenade, and being somewhat surprised when he gets his hand blown off. If Ron wants to get him out of his funk, send him down to Nashville, and let him get some real game work in where it doesn't put the big league club further in the hole.

 

He did, and probably will do the same thing with Krap-Rod for the same reason - those save totals. Axford saved all those games two years ago and Rodriguez holds the record for most saves in a season.

[monty57]

For how good Melvin is at judging hitting, he seems to struggle at judging pitching.

 

Since Jack Z left, how many position players have we drafted that became good major leaguers? The lineup is a mix of Jack Z's draft picks and veteran free agent signings. Aoki was a good find, but Melvin admitted no one in the organization had ever watched him (live or on film) prior to Melvin submitting a low-ball bid he never assumed would win for the top Japanese hitter on the market that year.

 

A big difference between our lineup and our pitching staff is that we had position player talent in the system when Melvin came on board, and many of them accepted the extensions that the short-term pitchers we acquired turned down. I don't think Melvin has some super-sense of judging hitters.

[3and2Fastball]

Melvin admitted no one in the organization had ever watched him (live or on film) prior to Melvin submitting a low-ball bid...

 

I cannot even fathom how that is possible. How can a scouting department not even put in 15-20 minutes of watching film of one of the best Japanese hitters? Crazy