Could there be a strong market for Lohse?

[PrinceEatMeat]

Here's this from MLB Trade Rumors.

 

"The Braves are more focused on front-line starting pitchers such as Jake Peavy and Ervin Santana than they are on Norris, writes Mark Bowman of MLB.com. Peavy's 118-pitch outing yesterday, which was scouted by the Braves, helped to quell some of the hesitation surrounding his health, Bowman adds. The Braves aren't interested in Yovani Gallardo, according to Bowman, but they may contact the Brewers regarding Kyle Lohse's availability."

[trwi7]

While the Braves do not seem to have any interest in Yovani Gallardo, they might ask the Brewers about Kyle Lohse, who has compiled a 2.49 ERA in the 11 starts he has made since the end of May.

 

http://mlb.mlblogs.com/2013/07/26/braves-now-in-pursuit-of-a-front-line-starting-pitcher/

[JohnBriggs12]

Melvin shouldn't lower the asking price for Lohse. Next year at this time and even this winter, Lohse's contract won't be as big an issue for teams looking for a proven starter. I don't see anything happening now. Sooner or later, Lohse is either going to help them contend, or he's going to bring something of value back. When that happens is irrelevant. Dealing him strictly as a contract dump now makes little sense as their track record suggests they'd go out and find another similar type.

[TooLiveBrew]

I agree….but hindsight is always 20-20…did anybody see Gallardo falling off a cliff like he has this year?

 

As I recall Melvin tried to trade Prince once it became clear we couldn't sign him and was so under whelmed with the offers that he decided to keep him and we ended up winning 96 games.

 

I just think its difficult to criticize Melvin without knowing what trades he turned down.

 

I think the much bigger problem has been the lack of impact players(especially pitching) that have been drafted/developed in recent years.

Well likewise, it's just so easy to dismiss the notion of being proactive about team-building to say that people calling for players like Lohse/Gallardo/Ramirez/Axford/K-Rod/Henderson/etc. to be traded, 'might as well just trade Segura, too.' It's disingenuous, as this is a very valid discussion.

 

I certainly agree that a major problem has been the failings of the drafting & development of pitching. But another major part of the problem has been Melvin's inability to build for the long term. I would argue that neither the Greinke nor the K-Rod trades qualify as Melvin being very proactive, since both guys would've been lost to FA likely anway. However, I do think Melvin deserves a lot of credit in both cases for making savvy trades that do help begin the long-term building process.

 

The way I see it is that someone who doesn't agree with the Brewers needing to focus on long-term building from within has two choices: engage in the discussion in a productive manner, or take potshots that are gross overgeneralizations & that don't facilitate good discussion. I don't mean to pick on you -- I'm simply tired of seeing the, 'Well, might as well trade everyone & run like the Marlins' types of responses.

[paul253]

Maybe we should trade Segura now since his value is probably at its peak?

 

This is a strawman argument. I'm not suggesting he trade EVERYONE when they are at their peak. It would just be nice to maximize someone's value every now and then before they completely fall off a cliff and we are stuck with them.

 

LaPorta

Lawrie

Jeffress

Will Inman

 

First off, the fact that you have to list prospects kind of proves my point. But I don't think it's fair to list off prospects here because if you want to go that route I can name three times as many prospects who never had any major league success and Melvin never traded.

 

One name I did forget was Podsednik. He seemed to trade him at a good time. But there is just this history of hanging onto guys for way too long. McGehee. Axford. Hall. Hart. Weeks. Now possibly Lohse. Possibly Henderson. It just seems to me like Melvin is overcommitted to his players sometimes. I have no idea what he could have gotten in trades for any of these guys, but honestly whatever he did get probably would have been better than what those players produced in their last few years here.

[monty57]

I think it's important to weigh the risk of holding onto Lohse until the offseason vs the potential of maybe getting a better offer. He could certainly get hurt or pitch worse in the second half, which could lower his value, or render him untradeable. Just see Corey Hart and Aramis Ramirez as recent examples.

 

Plus there's that age thing. If I were a GM looking at Lohse, having him the second half of 2013 is likely more valuable than having him either of the remaining two full years of the contract.

[Warning Track Power]

If I am Melvin, I am dealing Lohse for the best offer. We have discussed time and time again on many different topics that the Brewers are not likely to be in contention as currently constructed given that our talent level on both the MLB and MiLB levels are less than that of the Reds, Cardinals, Pirates and arguably the Cubs. Given that reality, it would seem smartest to trade whatever pieces we can now so that when our window opens again hopefully in 2015, 2016, we have pieces that will contribute at that time. Lohse to me is a luxury we can't afford unless somehow the following occur in 2014:

 

1. Yo reverts to the 3.5 ERA pitcher he was.

2. Braun returns and is Braun

3. Segura and Gomez keep their 2013 pace

4. Peralta continues his ascension to a #3 or better pitcher

5. 2014 Ramirez = 2012 Ramirez

6. 2014 Weeks = 2011 Weeks pre-injury

 

Of those, I think only 2-4 are realistic, 1 is possible if not probable and 5 & 6 are not going to happen. In order for the Brewers to compete in 2014, they need all 6. I am on board with a Lohse deal and am hopeful either the Dodgers come knocking with a Pederson & Magill offer for a Lohse + deal or the Red Sox offer Middlebrooks & a SP prospect for Lohse +.

[jjfanec]

If I am Melvin, I am dealing Lohse for the best offer. We have discussed time and time again on many different topics that the Brewers are not likely to be in contention as currently constructed given that our talent level on both the MLB and MiLB levels are less than that of the Reds, Cardinals, Pirates and arguably the Cubs. Given that reality, it would seem smartest to trade whatever pieces we can now so that when our window opens again hopefully in 2015, 2016, we have pieces that will contribute at that time. Lohse to me is a luxury we can't afford unless somehow the following occur in 2014:

 

1. Yo reverts to the 3.5 ERA pitcher he was.

2. Braun returns and is Braun

3. Segura and Gomez keep their 2013 pace

4. Peralta continues his ascension to a #3 or better pitcher

5. 2014 Ramirez = 2012 Ramirez

6. 2014 Weeks = 2011 Weeks pre-injury

 

Of those, I think only 2-4 are realistic, 1 is possible if not probable and 5 & 6 are not going to happen. In order for the Brewers to compete in 2014, they need all 6. I am on board with a Lohse deal and am hopeful either the Dodgers come knocking with a Pederson & Magill offer for a Lohse + deal or the Red Sox offer Middlebrooks & a SP prospect for Lohse +.

 

I am all for trading Yo and Lohse however I would disagree 1-6 are necessary for the Brewers to compete next year. If you have a solid 1-3 in your rotation with a solid Lineup - Aoki, Gomez, Segura, Braun, Lucroy is a great start even if Ramirez and Weeks are not the 2011 or 2012 versions.

 

Now the reason I am all for trading Yo and Lohse is because I dont think 1 is possible and I actually dont see Lohse pitching this well in 2014. We need to get younger and take our lumps. IF there is a market and we can get a good return for both of them then I say trade them.

[danzig6767]

Maybe we should trade Segura now since his value is probably at its peak?

 

This is a strawman argument. I'm not suggesting he trade EVERYONE when they are at their peak. It would just be nice to maximize someone's value every now and then before they completely fall off a cliff and we are stuck with them.

 

One name I did forget was Podsednik. He seemed to trade him at a good time. But there is just this history of hanging onto guys for way too long. McGehee. Axford. Hall. Hart. Weeks. Now possibly Lohse. Possibly Henderson. It just seems to me like Melvin is overcommitted to his players sometimes. I have no idea what he could have gotten in trades for any of these guys, but honestly whatever he did get probably would have been better than what those players produced in their last few years here.

 

A few thoughts on your post

 

1. It's easier said than done to know what guys are clearly going to fall off a cliff or who will continue to perform well. You listed guys like Hall, Weeks, Axford, Hart, etc, welll, unless you always predicted their demise was imminent before it happened, it's a lot easier to do in retrospect. Axford for example was brilliant in notching 45 plus saves in a row and on a dirt cheap contract at the time. Did you predict that he was ready to completely implode the following year? Predict Weeks was ready to fall apart after three straight .800 plus OPS seasons even though he was only 27 when getting his contract? On the flip side expect Gomez to be sitting here with an .894 OPS after you ripped his extension?

 

Point being, this is a volatile sport and players regularly follow really good stretches by continuing to play well while others fall off a cliff as you put it. Hall was another example. He followed a good .837 OPS year with a great .899 season, including a whopping 78 extra base hits for a middle infielder, all at ages 25 and then 26 where many players typically enter their primes. It's easy to say in retrospect that Hall was clearly going to crash and burn soon after, so he should have been traded after that great year vs getting an extension.

 

2. Attanasio in multiple interviews has been pretty clear in stating that he prefers going for the win now route whenever he feels there is any chance to at least compete for a playoff berth. So do you really think he'd have been keen to the idea of Melvin trading away productive pieces at the time like you mentioned for prospects instead? How receptive do you think Attanasio would have been to Doug or an GM at the time coming up to him after a 96 win season and NLCS berth to trading Axford for prospects after he was a key cog in notching 45 straight saves and being paid peanuts the following year? To trading either of Weeks/Hart after that season?

 

The Brewers aren't the Packers with no single owner where GM's like Ron Wolf and now Ted Thompson have free reign to do whatever they please. Hell, Attanasio took the lead in negotiating the contracts for all three of Suppan, Ramirez, and Lohse. So i think you're being very naive in thinking that if you were GM instead of Melvin, that Attanasio would have just allowed you to go trading away some or all of the players you mentioned for prospects, especially while Braun/Fielder were still together and Miller Park was loading up with around 2.5 to 3 million per year.

[monty57]

Right Danzig, the problem seems to be Attanasio more than Melvin... But there's still a problem. I just hope Attanasio lets Melvin make some trades this season (for the best return and not for the best MLB ready talent) and keeps out of the team building aspect of the Brewers this offseason, especially when it is Scott Boras on the other end of the phone.

[narwhalattack]

Apparently Lohse can be a target for the A's http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/07/al-west-notes-athletics-rangers-astros.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=facebook

 

If the Brewers decide to send Lohse to the A's, perhaps they could get Sonny Gray and/or Michael Ynoa.

[trwi7]

Not sure if we could get either one but Lohse would be gone in a second if the A's offered Gray or Ynoa.

[splitterpfj]

The A's jumped in on Garza, and they're scouting pretty much every available starter right now. I think they believe they're going to lose Colon to a suspension.

 

For once, Oakland is likely to trade some young guys for a more pricey veteran.

[brewmann04]

Oh looking forward to July 31st

[danzig6767]

The A's jumped in on Garza, and they're scouting pretty much every available starter right now. I think they believe they're going to lose Colon to a suspension.

 

For once, Oakland is likely to trade some young guys for a more pricey veteran.

 

If my memory is correct, Beane has traded for a veteran a few times when he had contending teams, but that was also back when you'd get a comp pick for a vet on the last year of their deal who left in free agency.

[splitterpfj]

Exactly, Danzig, Billy traded for guys like Johnny Damon and Ray Durham, partly to use the system of the time, which brought him draft picks when they left.

 

I don't think I can remember him just plain dealing youth for vets, with no future picks in the mix.

 

I wonder if he'll prefer to deal with teams who can send him Competitive Balance picks, or maybe International Signing money.

[Kelbysdaddy]

Oakland would match up very well with the crew for lohse. Get Renato Nunez and maybe ynoa.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Beane would trade for Lohse for the playoff run and then flip him in the offseason or next deadline. That's what he does. He wouldn't really be looking at him as a 2.5 year acquisition when trading for him. It would be a good match in my opinion.

[logan82]

Plus there's that age thing. If I were a GM looking at Lohse, having him the second half of 2013 is likely more valuable than having him either of the remaining two full years of the contract.

That is a very good point. Lohse's 2nd half of this year may very well be his most productive portion of his remaining contract. I would pay most of his remaining salary to get a good player back.

[RockCoCougars]

Plus there's that age thing. If I were a GM looking at Lohse, having him the second half of 2013 is likely more valuable than having him either of the remaining two full years of the contract.

That is a very good point. Lohse's 2nd half of this year may very well be his most productive portion of his remaining contract. I would pay most of his remaining salary to get a good player back.

 

Lohse is owed roughly $25 million on his deal. Outside of maybe the top few prospects in baseball, I don't think that anyone in the minors is worth that kind of money, especially when you consider the first rounder that the Lohse signing cost. I wouldn't ask for a king's ransom for him, but with the way that Lohse has pitched this season, the Brewers shouldn't have to pay a penny of his salary either.

[fondybrewfan]

Lohse may be on the wrong side of 30 but he has gotten better with age and $12 million a year is not expensive at all for a god starting pitcher nowadays. I don't think his contract should play a major role; he is not all of a sudden going to be Jeff Suppan next year. There is nothing this year that would lead me to believe a big drop off is coming.

[SRB]

Random stat: across the last three seasons (at least 500 IP) Lohse ranks tenth in MLB in ERA (tied with David Price)

[chickinbrickin]

I don't understand why the Brewers would have any interest in Ynoa. He has done nothing so far to give any indication he will even turn into a mediocre minor leaguer let alone a big league player.

 

I would be pissed if they moved Loshe for Ynoa. Should be able to get a much better package.

[brewcrewdue80]

It's not a good sign imo that Lohse wasn't traded by today. With his start tomorrow, the acquiring team would have gotten that extra start(Braves?)

 

The Braves who now run out returning to action Beachy good. But then Tuesday is Alex Wood's next start which if I were Atlanta and serious about acquiring Lohse, I'd have him now to start that day. I guess seeing 1 start from Beachy and another from Wood isn't the end of the world for Atlanta vs. getting 1 added start by Lohse. But complete Flameouts by both, would make the Sellers in a better position to say, hey, I don't have to let Lohse go....I want Sims+ you're the team staring at a rotation with 1 solid arm and a lot of question marks down the stretch. So give me the goods I want if you want to see your season saved, or take on a guy like Bud Norris and watch him flame your team down the stretch just as awful as some team's season not that long ago...who was that again?

[splitterpfj]

I decided to put this here, from Peter Gammons...

 

Peter Gammons ‏@pgammo 2m

A's not in on Peavy price(Gray, Russell & take on bearly $20M), ditto Boston, ditto Atlanta. Time running down

 

 

In translation...Chicago asked the A's for their best overall prospect, their best pitching prospect, and full absorption of the money left on Peavy's deal.