Could there be a strong market for Lohse?

[splitterpfj]

Take a look at this, you'll see that Boston's 3-6 prospects are all pitchers...this is the team I want to see asking about Lohse.

 

http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2013/index.jsp?c_id=bos

[TooLiveBrew]

I think a fair return would be a pitcher like Jimmy Nelson, not a top rated prospect, but one who I think he a very similar upside to Wily Peralta(which is unquestionably that of an ace however unlikely it may be that either will ever become one) and then I'd look at the lower levels and guys with big arms and or tools. A Tyrone Taylor/Mitch Hanniger+a Brooks Hall and we eat 5 million dollars. Tyler Thornburg is a guy that I might be interested in as well.

With the exception of Thornburg, I wouldn't make any of those trades if the Brewers were contending & looking to possibly add Lohse.

[torts]

Starks wrote in his blog on ESPN today/last night:

 

•The price for Kyle Lohse, for instance, involves the price of a first-round pick. The Crew gave up as first-rounder as compensation for signing Lohse as a free agent in the spring.

[monty57]

I know that as a fan it's easy to say something to the effect of "that's two years away, so who cares if he sucks then," but you can't have this attitude as a businessman and hope to succeed. Successful managers have to consider the future in everything they do. If we'd have to pay him $11MM in 2015 to not pitch, that would mean that our $90-100MM payroll becomes a $79-89MM payroll for players who actually play. You absolutely have to consider how age will affect a player. No one knows for sure how Lohse will pitch in two years, but he is at the age where most good starting pitchers retire. Just based on the fact that very few starting pitchers make it to age 35 or 36 in the majors seems to make it very likely that Lohse's ability will drop off dramatically soon. This doesn't make him a bad guy or anything like that, it's just natural for humans to slow down with age. I don't think that hoping and praying that "your guy" is the one who defies the odds is a good strategy.

 

I have never said that I didn't think he would be good this year. While many were talking of some Cardinal curse, or moving to a different park, or a myriad of other reasons he would be bad this year, I didn't agree. I figured he would pitch well this year, and he's lived up to expectations. It's next year and even moreso 2015 that worry me. Add in that I didn't think we had a playoff roster this year anyways, and that's why I didn't like the signing... not because of how he'd pitch in 2013, but that it really wouldn't help us much this year (there really isn't much positive value in adding a couple of wins to a losing team), and would hurt us in the future.

 

The price for Kyle Lohse, for instance, involves the price of a first-round pick. The Crew gave up as first-rounder as compensation for signing Lohse as a free agent in the spring.

 

I think that's the best possible outcome. They end up "even" with comparable value to what they gave up. It cost them somewhere around $11MM to end up "even," but talent-wise they're where they presumably would have been. Maybe the extra ticket sales that bumped up when he was signed add up to the millions we spent on him. I don't know, as the public isn't privy to that information. I'd guess that we'll probably end up a little on the negative side in the "best case" scenario of getting back "first round value" in trade. I think (just an opinion) that we will end up far in the negative if we don't trade him, so I'd certainly take "close to even," and hope that Melvin is able to pull some decent value back in trade while not having to pay $10MM+ in future dollars to get it.

[brewmann04]

Unless the Brewers get what they want their no need to Move either Loshe or Yo.

[brewcrewdue80]

I know that as a fan it's easy to say something to the effect of "that's two years away, so who cares if he sucks then," but you can't have this attitude as a businessman and hope to succeed. Successful managers have to consider the future in everything they do. If we'd have to pay him $11MM in 2015 to not pitch, that would mean that our $90-100MM payroll becomes a $79-89MM payroll for players who actually play.

 

So how does that logic work when pitchers like Sabathia/Grienke are handed out 23+mil/avg a season contracts?

 

All it takes is one Tommy John surgery to lose a full 23+mil to these two. Both are also earning this avg amount a season for age 34. In fairness, I don't think in this new day and age of money in MLB 11mil. is something teams can't handle losing when a player declines/ is injured. Let me flip this scenario on you. How many times has it been said on international signings/draft picks that we don't sign that why didn't they just pony up an extra few 100k? So when these GMs you're arguing are making bad business decisions by paying Lohse 11mil in 2015. How's that GM look that signs a Jeremy Guthrie deal saving 8mil. for 3 years?

In the end Baltimore fans are probably clamoring why, didn't we just sign Lohse for an extra 8mil over 3years? Sans draft loss compensation. That's where it stands right now for a team looking to acquire Lohse. You're worried about money but in the end for the money Lohse is performing to it and beyond thus far. How's that GM look going in to 2014 with a 7-9mil dollar #5 performing pitcher going to look on a contending team when all it would have taken was another 2-4mil and a couple prospects to have Lohse? See, rather than use a "Band-aid" veteran FA pitcher this offseason and then watch it fail is foolish when Lohse was on the table to be had at the Deadline not only to help you're contending team 2013 but to fill a hole you have staring back at you for 2014.

Look up the list of FA SPs this coming year. Phil Hughes will be the only one under 30.

Feldman, Garza, Ubaldo, Josh Johnson, Scott Kazmir, Jon Lester, Lincecum, and Edison Volquez are the 30 yr olds that are going to likely command 3-4years in a deal. How's that look for any team in 2015?

Gavin Floyd, Jason Hammel, Jeff Karstens, Ricky Nolasco, Jonathon Sanchez, Ervin Santana, Jason Vargas are the 31 yr olds. I see a few 1yr deals there but the better are going to ask for 3 years as well so how do they look for a team in 2015? I'm guessing here Nolasco/Santana/Vargas are going to get 11MM+ for their years in contract.

You want to worry about Lohse a continual performing 34yr old for 3 years now vs. what the future market is offering and for what price? The QO was 13.3 mil last season and is set for 13.8 this year. So on that basis you're paying 1mil more in 2015 for the kind of pitcher/pay Lohse is set to be paid. Meaning who's making 10mil this year will get 11mil in 2015. 11 making 12mil. Lohse is a steal for his price when you really look at it.

 

 

 

As to the Brewers asking price, yeah I can see where they are coming from asking for a 1st rd. talent but realistically, that's absurd. You don't get 6years or more of having a 1st rd. talent for 2.4 years of aging Lohse.

End of 1st rd/ early 2nd rd talent sure maybe.

 

But, then again, I go back to what the "Sellers" market is offering and Lohse is BETTER than Garza right now. Garza has been exclaimed the best SP available in this market but that's with the assumption Lohse isn't going anywhere. Until some other teams join in the Selling and put some other SPs on the market, Lohse is the best available and "Prize" of the market. Not just for this season but 2014 unless you're willing to pay 13+mil for Johnson,Nolasco,Santana,Garza,and Lincecum this coming FA to 3-4yr deals?

 

 

Edit Add: Monty I'd agree with your presumption if Lohse was showing signs of failing. He moved to a hitters ballpark and all it lead to was more HRs allowed, but nothing else stands out as a Warning sign that he's going to see 5ERA days. Look at Kuroda/Pettite they are getting it done. That's what I can predict Lohse as being because he'd the kind of pitcher those two are.

[brewcrewdue80]

Hypothetical: What prospects from the Brewers system would you be willing to part with for Lohse, given his production, age, & salary?

 

It's hard to think we really have the prospects to actually go get Lohse in this scenario. Bradley,Hellweg and Morris for Lohse.

 

Considering ARam I'd fathom moving to 1b/3b with Hart coming back and Francisco at 3b. Either/or of Hart/ARam platooning with Francisco to give them days off. Hellweg's big FB likely has enough to capture someone's attention to take him on and I throw in Bradley being that he was a top 20 draft pick who's yet to move up but a top 20 pick must have upside somehow and he can be a lottery ticket kick in.

 

Jungmann would be my team's not available in trade. and Nelson just someone that I'd hate to deal away after watching him grow and move up the organization ladder.

That's my answer to this hypothetical question assuming we're in the mix for a playoff push needing a #3 Vet Starter with control now til 2015.

 

Would I be happy with that return for Lohse? No. and that's just it, the Brewers don't have the players in the minors to get him with true upside. I'd probably have to throw in Nelson vs. Bradley with Hellweg and Morris to maybe see it as possible.

[monty57]

So how does that logic work when pitchers like Sabathia/Grienke are handed out 23+mil/avg a season contracts?

 

I honestly don't care what other teams do. I care about the Brewers, and I thought all along that the Brewers retaining of Sabathia, Greinke or Fielder would cripple the franchise. We can't afford $20-something million players, while still retaining enough talent around them to realistically compete.

 

Look up the list of FA SPs this coming year. Phil Hughes will be the only one under 30.

 

Yes, which is why the Brewers have to find a way to build a team where the stars come from in-house, and the only time they use free agency is to fill in the holes with role players. Generally in free agency you are getting players who are past their prime, but paying for what they have done rather than what they will do during the contract you will be obligated to pay. Big money teams greatly inflate the amount free agents receive, so teams like the Brewers have to find an alternative route. This is a big reason why the past decade's worth of decisions by the Brewers front office which has left us with one of the worst farms in baseball is so troubling. We have been, and are going to continue to, lose more talent every year than we can replenish from the farm or via free agency.

 

We should've started trading away players before now, but we can't go back and re-do history, so all we can do is act in the present time to try to make a brighter future. Signing Lohse was not a move with this in mind, so hopefully we will be able to find a saving grace and get a desperate GM who will give up something of value for Lohse as well as paying most of all of the contract.

 

As to the Brewers asking price, yeah I can see where they are coming from asking for a 1st rd. talent but realistically, that's absurd. You don't get 6years or more of having a 1st rd. talent for 2.4 years of aging Lohse.

 

End of 1st rd/ early 2nd rd talent sure maybe.

 

I agree, and this is what I have argued all along, so I don't see where we really differ. I'm not saying Lohse is untradeable. Someone will trade for him, I just don't expect a whole lot back. Getting the equivalent of a first rounder without having to pay a boatload of the contract is the best we could hope for, and if we get that, or something close to that, we should be happy. We aren't going to get a Garza-type return, and the entire reason for that is because the extra years on the contract has negative value. Otherwise, Lohse is pitching well right now, so why wouldn't teams give up as much as they gave for Garza?

[Warning Track Power]

Take a look at this, you'll see that Boston's 3-6 prospects are all pitchers...this is the team I want to see asking about Lohse.

 

http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2013/index.jsp?c_id=bos

I know I keep harping on it in every thread but whatever combination of Lohse, Aoki, Axford, Ramirez, Henderson and Gonzalez for Middlebrooks, Barnes and Ranaudo is what I am really hoping for. Having Middlebrooks in Boston is a luxury they really don't need with Iglesias, Boegaerts and Cecchini and it would fill a hole at the major league level for us. While not necessarily a David Wright, Middlebrooks and Segura could form a solid left side of the IF for the next 6-10 years. Throw in Lucroy and Gomez as well as Braun and you have a nice little offensive core moving forward.

[jjfanec]

Starks wrote in his blog on ESPN today/last night:

 

•The price for Kyle Lohse, for instance, involves the price of a first-round pick. The Crew gave up as first-rounder as compensation for signing Lohse as a free agent in the spring.

 

This is the right move. Considering what we got for KRod I think holding out for a first round type guy makes sense.

 

The question was asked what would we give up for Lohse and that is almost impossible to answer because we are not in the playoff hunt and our cupboard is so bare. If I were another team with a deeper farm system I would be more willing to give up a young pitcher for two years of Lohse

[jackailius]

nevermind.

[monty57]

I like that Melvin went to the low minors to get a higher upside guy for K-Rod, and "the price of a first-round pick" sounds like he's willing to take a younger guy with upside for Lohse. I think that is realistically the only way we get a potentially good future MLB player out of Lohse. If we were to insist on a AA or AAA guy, we wouldn't get much upside, and we already have plenty of AA/AAA pitchers who can fill out the back of the rotation and bullpen in the future.

 

The "any trade will be for 2-3 years from now" comment may hold true (fingers crossed).

[Oldcity]

Can someone jog my memory on players who are in their first year of a FA deal? Isn't there some clause that if he's traded, he can opt for FA again? For some reason I remember hearing this, but I also feel like that only might be until May/June.

 

I'm assuming if this was the case teams would not be interested in Lohse.

[splitterpfj]

@bballintheblood

#KyleLohse, last ten starts, 5-1, 2.3 ERA, 0.84 WHIP. This is the pitcher teams should be after right now.

[splitterpfj]

Boston is a fantastic match if the Brewers decide to move Lohse, in fact, I don't think this could be drawn up much better.

 

1. Boston has pitching depth in their system right now.

2. The Brewers want the #17 overall pick (I think that's the right number) they surrendered to be valued into a trade.

3. Matt Barnes was taken 19th overall in 2011.

 

Boston can afford to move Barnes, they've got the arms to spare him, they can also afford to take on Lohse, and Barnes fits very well into what the Brewers need. He's a young arm, with a very real shot at being a #2 starter in the big leagues.

 

Barnes was the red hot name in Boston's system a year ago, but he has slipped some since then, if scouts think it's nothing physical, he's exactly the guy Milwaukee should want in a Lohse trade.

[reillymcshane]

Boston is a fantastic match if the Brewers decide to move Lohse, in fact, I don't think this could be drawn up much better.

 

1. Boston has pitching depth in their system right now.

2. The Brewers want the #17 overall pick (I think that's the right number) they surrendered to be valued into a trade.

3. Matt Barnes was taken 19th overall in 2011.

 

Boston can afford to move Barnes, they've got the arms to spare him, they can also afford to take on Lohse, and Barnes fits very well into what the Brewers need. He's a young arm, with a very real shot at being a #2 starter in the big leagues.

 

Barnes was the red hot name in Boston's system a year ago, but he has slipped some since then, if scouts think it's nothing physical, he's exactly the guy Milwaukee should want in a Lohse trade.

Barnes would be awesome. I just wonder if Boston would be willing to make the move. I guess now is the time to strike with regards to Barnes. He's been mediocre this year.

[brewcrewdue80]

Atlanta which has a need for a RP just lost Tim Hudson for the season.

Hudson And Maholm both are FAs next season. Lohse would be an ideal fit not only for remainder this season but next season.

 

The cost as Splitter put it of a 1st rd. selection? well Lucas Sims was 21st overall 2012. He's splitting Starts and Relief outings which I don't know if that for IP limits being 19 or if they see RP role in his future over Starter? But if it's a RP role, I'd say he's expendable for Lohse.

Maybe you throw Edward Salcedo as a backup plan at 3b for Delmonico in the deal. And then 1 other guy I just don't know who to name.

 

But something that may be a reasonable fit. Let's factor in what Lohse has done with his ERA and the added HRs he's given up in a HR friendly park...vs. Atl's home field? Or the AL East ballparks in general? Atlanta should be a team honing in on Lohse if they want to see themselves win the East. There's a reason why Philly isn't selling, because Atlanta is fairly weak yet winning games compared to talent(downgrading their "Superior OF" now) which falls in line with my Boston call. Both Atlanta and Boston I see falling in the standings unless they pick up a veteran SP like Lohse.

[brewcrewdue80]

This from Buster Olney back on June 27th:

Some teams are evaluating Kyle Lohse to see if he's a worthwhile trade target.

 

Lohse has now pitched 34.2 and while he's been charged with 9ERs Axford hasn't done him any favors by allowing 3 of 4 Inherited runners score. Lohse only gave up 6ERs himself while on the mound in 34.2IP Lohse has pitched in the 7th inning in 4 of last 5 starts in that same time span.

 

What does it mean? The fact that no team is having rumored to want Lohse, is likely suggesting the asking price is stupid high! Probably higher than Grienke last season.

[jjfanec]

Lohse should be the top arm on the market right now. He is having a great year and was really good the past two years. Teams could be scared off by his salary the next two years but that actually looks like a great value right now and it is only two more years. Hopefully something happens the next few days because you would think a team would want him on their roster for his next start

[brewmann04]

Ken Rosenthal believe both Loshe and Yo will stay put for what that worth.

[splitterpfj]

In his latest comments on both guys, Doug Melvin sounded that way too, simply saying, "Not motivated", when asked if he was looking to trade either guy.

 

I think the team simply isn't getting offers they like for Gallardo, and for whatever reason, they just don't seem like they want to move Lohse right now, barring a huge offer to get him.

 

I think if this was about moving Lohse for a solid return, they could do it in ten minutes.

[Oldcity]

That is really frustrating. This is exactly like Ramirez last year, when they should have traded him when they had the chance. Lohse may not be movable again for the duration of his contract.

[brewmann04]

Atl might just move to the head of the list how about Loshe and Gonzo what could we expect back?

[igor67]

He should be driving a hard bargain on Lohse, best of a rare commodity potentially on the market no significant deadline from the team standpoint. He is the best chance to get All-star caliber talent back. A deal for Lohse early also devalues our other major league assets now and in the offseason since it makes it difficult make a plausible case for competitiveness next year. Having to deal Axford, Gonzalez, Aramis, Gallardo, and Aoki at firesale prices represents a real outcome of the timing of the deal and potentially a significant loss of talent. Conversely dealing just Axford and Gonzalez (definitely a great sell high candidate) for a reasonable return and taking a modest shot at having a solid next year with the option to deal the rest of the assets is not a terrible strategy. Sheer plausibility alone shows how unlikely it is to deal off that many major leaguers in a season at anything less than firesale prices. Realistically expecting more than 2 more trades of significance this year would be a lot.

[fleehaw]

Bigger One

7-28: Lohse and Axford to the D-Backs for McCarthy, Davidson, and Holmberg

(McCarthy is owed $9M next season)

 

This was one of my guesses for next Brewer trade. Of course it all depends on how the D-Backs view McCarthy going forward.