Could there be a strong market for Lohse?

[JackNicholson1974]

I dont think they would. His 2013 salary is deferred, that means the Brewers owe it if he plays 2013 for Milwaukee. Deferring the salary doesnt mean it counts as future salary for performance at later date, it is salary for performance now, payable by the team that employs him now.

[brewcrewdue80]

16days left to deadline, and I haven't seen any team linked to inquiring about Lohse. Everything has been speculation. It's frustrating! Not one of Boston/Washington/Toronto/Cleveland or Texas the 5 teams I'd expect the most to inquire about him at this point.

[brewmann04]

we need to be patient i am sure the offers will get busy when they return from the break.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Yeah, I think the Garza domino needs to fall before serious suitors and offers start coming in for Lohse and Gallardo.

[splitterpfj]

Garza v Lohse, check this out...

 

http://www.baseballintheblood.com/?p=1061

[monty57]

Garza v Lohse, check this out...

 

http://www.baseballintheblood.com/?p=1061

 

From that link: The only logical explanation I can give is, perhaps the Brewers have told teams Lohse is not available.

 

...or that teams don't want to be on the hook for two more years in Lohse's mid-30's.

 

I hope the Brewers will be able to get something for Lohse, as their "trade chips" are all tarnished. I'm getting to the point that I don't think the Brewers will bring back anything useful in trade this year. They'll either salary dump some players or go into next year with a bad $100MM team.

[PrinceEatMeat]

I don't think it's his $11M salary deterring teams. That's a fair contract. Teams were clamoring for Dempster this offseason, and he's arguably not even as good as Lohse. The reason being is that a draft pick didn't have to be given up for him. I think if anything it's the $7M in deferred payments that would turn teams off. Otherwise, there's definitely a market for a pitcher like Lohse at that price. I would agree that it's more likely that the Brewers for some reason don't want to trade him.

[monty57]

I don't think it's his $11M salary deterring teams.

 

I think it's the $11MM per year for the next two years when Lohse is beyond the normal "lifespan" of a MLB pitcher. I think other GMs are very wary of age catching up to him, at which point they worry about having to potentially DFA him while they still owe him a lot of money. If Lohse was only signed for 2013, or maybe signed through next year, he'd have more value than he has being signed through 2015. That's on top of the question as to who owes the deferred money.

 

But, I do think there is some credence to Attanasio starting to believe that we're going to contend next year. Throw in that his "trading chips" won't bring much back in return, and I would not be surprised if the only moves we make are trading away a couple of relievers who will be free agents after the year (and Axford who is cost prohibitive).

[yoshii8]

I think DM is just more tight lipped about trades he's discussing. Also, the Brewers aren't as big of a news story as the Cubs. I'm guessing he's plenty available.

[Roderick]

I think DM is just more tight lipped about trades he's discussing. Also, the Brewers aren't as big of a news story as the Cubs. I'm guessing he's plenty available.

 

That would be my guess also. I don't think $4.4M for 2013 and $11M for 2014 and 2015 is going to scare away too many of the playoff teams.

[nate82]

I believe the deferred money can not be traded as it is part of this years salary for Lohse which would be already accounted for in the year as being paid by the Brewers.

[brewcrewdue80]

I don't think it's his $11M salary deterring teams.

 

I think it's the $11MM per year for the next two years when Lohse is beyond the normal "lifespan" of a MLB pitcher. I think other GMs are very wary of age catching up to him, at which point they worry about having to potentially DFA him while they still owe him a lot of money. If Lohse was only signed for 2013, or maybe signed through next year, he'd have more value than he has being signed through 2015. That's on top of the question as to who owes the deferred money.

 

Look, Monty he's 20 starts in to this season. A 3.49ERA coming from a guy who's giving up more HRs in a Hitters ballpark. w/o those HRs though you figure Lohse is around a 3ERA pitcher who averages pitching in the 7th inning per start. If, he were to be FA next season, I'm sure teams wouldn't have a pause 1 second on giving Lohse 11mil next season. If I were a fan of a contending team, I'd call that a steal. So the worry in your argument can only be presented for 2015. Nobody here should buy in to it for 2014. His So/BB ratio is the best for his career EVER. Something that should be applauded on as a sign of "Staying Power" in ability. I posted earlier if so and so was offered this much for similar age/being older Lohse has to this point shown he's worth 11mil next season.

 

Monty, tell me based on what Lohse has provided in about how many more career starts it should take for Lohse's effective lifespan to come to a halt? He has 13 more left this season. I can't fathom to this point Lohse starting next season being completely ineffective. So 10 starts in to next season? 20? a full 30 Starts next season?

Acquiring Lohse for the rest of this season and a productive 2014 that potentially puts your team over the top for a World Series run, I'm sure won't get frowned upon if he fails in 2015 at some point not "living up to his 11mil" pricetag.

That's how I'm looking at it. I could care less about 2015, hey throw him in the bullpen if he can't cut it as a Starter, I just see Lohse as providing a successful number of starts now through 2014 for a team. Moving away from Stl. into a Hitters ballpark, hasn't had anywhere near an impact I thought. I was calling for him to be above a 4.5ERA more likely than him being an under 4ERA pitcher.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/07/trade-market-for-starting-pitchers.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MlbTradeRumors+%28MLB+Trade+Rumors%29

 

Read the link. Shields? way too much probably in Prospect cost. Santana? I expect KC to QO him and demand that kind of prospect in return for a rental. Guthrie? Lohse's age, and 11/9mil owed for a guy who's not in Lohse's league as a pitcher. Peavy, more expensive than Lohse approaching Lohse's age you're clamoring end of lifespan. Norris, cheap and controlled but what kind of upgrade really? Blanton? 8mil for a 5ERA pitcher? Correia? No. Harrell isn't even starting currently. Zito No. Slowey's not starting. Villanueva? Do you really want to consider him you Playoff Push Pitcher? Danks, more expensive, less productive so why? Worley? No. McDonald, injured No. Aceves, hasn't started in a month...No. Romero, No!

Then you're on to the rentals which is different than Lohse's scenario. Either a team will trade for a rental, or trade for controlled, so I'm not going in to the rentals.

 

Compared to those options, Lohse appears the best fit even with Aging Fears. Other Pitchers need to come on to the market to dispel Lohse's value imo. But as of right now, he's the best performing veteran to go out and acquire for the money!

[brewmann04]

I think they keep Loshe unless blown away.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think they keep Loshe unless blown away.

As monty57 has laid out many times, they're not going to get blown away with an offer. Unless you consider getting "blown away" getting a B-grade prospect... and even that I think is probably a long shot. If I'm a GM, I really am not interested in parting with anything of value for Lohse at his age & salary. If I have to part with something of value, I'm going to target a younger & more cost-effective target.

[RockCoCougars]

I think they keep Loshe unless blown away.

As monty57 has laid out many times, they're not going to get blown away with an offer. Unless you consider getting "blown away" getting a B-grade prospect... and even that I think is probably a long shot. If I'm a GM, I really am not interested in parting with anything of value for Lohse at his age & salary. If I have to part with something of value, I'm going to target a younger & more cost-effective target.

 

I agree. Lohse is probably one of the rare cases where a pitcher has less value in a deadline deal because he is 'controlled' as opposed to a rental. I'd bet that the remaining dollars on that contract are making people a bit gunshy.

[brewmann04]

Right now I keep Loshe on the roster he really has rounded in form.

[HiAndTight]

and the fact that he will be owed $29MM of his $33MM,

 

I would like to see where this is a fact. Lohse contract was $11M each year. It is just that $7M of this years contract is deferred. For example to be clean, if the Brewers trade him after the season, the trading team would pick up his 2 year and $22M contract and nothing more. This isn't ARam's contract that was truly backloaded.

 

 

You can just go to cotts or search any article that details his contract.

[HiAndTight]

Buster Olney @Buster_ESPN

 

Some teams are evaluating Kyle Lohse to see if he's a worthwhile trade target

 

 

I would have to think that after the Rangers gave up Mike Olt, Justin Grimm and two other prospects(one who has very impressive minor league numbers, including 0 HR's given up in 160 minor league innings pitched thus far) that Lohse would have some value, especially with the way he's pitching.

[HiAndTight]

Yes, Lohse alone has value, but the whole package, which includes the guaranteed contract that is attached to Lohse, has negative value. They cannot be viewed separately.

 

That means that whoever is behind the signing made a colossal mistake. How many people could get away with a $15MM mistake (in an $88MM budget) and still be considered remotely competent? This isn't the end of an eight-year deal, where the team got loads of value and now have to pay for some mediocrity. We're a few months into the deal and already saying that we'll need to eat $15MM just to get a B level prospect back!

 

The Brewers as a whole are hurt by this, which is what I care about. The guy they'll likely get will probably top out as a role player, while payroll will need to be cut significantly. They were already a sinking ship and Melvin/Attanasio went and shot another cannonball through the deck.

 

 

As I said in the previous thread a few months ago in which I suggested that Lohse might be a highly sought out pitcher at the trade deadline, I just don't understand how you can stamp his contract as having "negative value?" Why? Because you look two years down the road at a control pitcher who's been extremely effective despite having almost no spring training on a bad team and say that at age 36 he just GOING to hit a "wall?"

 

How about the positive value he has right now? How are you quantifying his "value?" It seems you're just making two wild assumptions; A-the teams that may trade for him are going to operate under the same fiscal restrictions the Brewers operate under, and B-those same teams aren't willing to take that chance for a player who can clearly help them and contribute RIGHT NOW and there is little reason to think that he won't next year.

 

As for this "15 million dollar mistake," and the question of how many people could make that type of mistake and keep their job. Well, again, this whole 15 million dollars is your own creation. When I started the thread I believe you said his negative value was another random number.

 

 

 

Bottom line. He doesn't have swing and miss stuff and I was skeptical of him coming into this season, but the guy knows how to pitch. He just wears out the black on the outside corner, mixes it up, gets ground balls, throws 4 pitches for strikes, and he's pitching exceptionally well right now despite him having an unusually high HR ration this year.

 

One would think after ALL the trades we've seen, the Alex Rios being claimed off waivers, Vernon Wells, the Josh Beckett/Crawford/Gonzalez trade, the Marlins trade with the Blue Jays...it blows me away how people can so vehemently argue that his contract is going to be a huge detriment in trading him when he's due 11 million the next two years. And as for this "positive/negative," value stuff, how about all the positive value that his relatively modest contract this year(this year especially) and next year very well could provide?

 

 

I think the Brewers at most should offer to pay the deferred part of his salary and ask for a good package of prospects in return. I also think it's especially interesting that his contract has been described as being "team friendly," and a POSITIVE in more than one place.

[TooLiveBrew]

Hypothetical: What prospects from the Brewers system would you be willing to part with for Lohse, given his production, age, & salary?

[splitterpfj]

Melvin says he "is not motivated" to move Lohse or Gallardo, Giants' beat writer says Brewers will "have to be blown away" to deal Lohse.

 

There's no way in the world someone wouldn't want Kyle Lohse, the Brewers have simply set the bar very high, which is the same as not truly making him available. I saw a post from Jayson Stark saying the Brewers were pricing the draft pick they lost when they signed Lohse into their asking price in a deal.

 

We'll see what happens, but if the Brewers keep the bar at the "blow me away" level, they'll probably have Lohse for a while. I'm sure they could get a nice deal for him, just not a stupid one.

 

If Lohse goes, I hope Boston pursues him, they've got a depth of good minor league arms right now.

[HiAndTight]

Right now I keep Loshe on the roster he really has rounded in form.

 

 

I mean this respectfully, but to what end?

 

Lets say that Lohse continues the trend he's been on? His ERA is a little inflated this year with the late start(IMO) and just some bad luck. But lets say the next 2 1/2 years he wins 20 games a year, has an ERA of 2.86 like he did last year with the Cards and he continues to pitch well. Which is obviously highly unlikely(though I do believe he's the type of pitcher that will age well).

 

What's that do for the Brewers? Now his time in Milwaukee is done, we've likely been a 70 win team during that time period and....we're no better off(if anything, we're worse off as he might have helped us win a few games that hurt our draft position over that time).

 

It's time to realize we're in rebuilding mode and that the VERY FACT that he's really "rounded into form," is the whole reason you trade him.

 

 

 

Let me ask you this; Gallardo hasn't pitched as well the first half of this year. Are you then more inclined to trade him? And if the answer to that question is yes, you have to look at the other side of the equation.

[TooLiveBrew]

We'll see what happens, but if the Brewers keep the bar at the "blow me away" level, they'll probably have Lohse for a while. I'm sure they could get a nice deal for him, just not a stupid one.

I agree with this in principle, but the K-Rod trade is a reminder as to why having a high selling price in the right market is never that bad an idea.

[HiAndTight]

Hypothetical: What prospects from the Brewers system would you be willing to part with for Lohse, given his production, age, & salary?

 

This question is flawed from the get go.

 

We're not a big market team where 11 million dollars a year and 7 million dollars in deferred money(which would likely be picked up by the team trading him in almost any scenario) means significantly less.

 

What's more, you can't get a non-biased answer IMO because you know your own prospects much better than you know other teams. Some value them more, some devalue them because they tend to focus on what a prospect can't do as opposed to what he can do while he's developing.

 

Not to mention we're not competitive. Of course if we WERE in contention, I think a fair return would be a pitcher like Jimmy Nelson, not a top rated prospect, but one who I think he a very similar upside to Wily Peralta(which is unquestionably that of an ace however unlikely it may be that either will ever become one) and then I'd look at the lower levels and guys with big arms and or tools. A Tyrone Taylor/Mitch Hanniger+a Brooks Hall and we eat 5 million dollars. Tyler Thornburg is a guy that I might be interested in as well.

 

 

There's another reason this question is so difficult to answer however and that's because of the almost complete uncertainty of almost every prospect we have. We have a slew of big time boom or bust type prospects like Roache, Taylor, Coulter, Arcia, Bradley and.....we all know who most of these guys are. We have what has to be the worst system in baseball because we lack a single "can't miss," type prospect, but we DO have quite a few players who could easily rise up through the system and in 18 months be top 50 prospects. Jimmy Nelson for example. I fail to see why he couldn't end up becoming a Wily Peralta clone. Both have that heavy-heavy mid to upper 90's fastball, both have a wipeout slider, and an underrated change(which Peralta has certainly shown).

 

 

In fact, an interesting article about Nelson, and he hasn't slown down much since this article by Newman, INCLUDING an interesting piece about him facing everyone's next Willie Mays in Puig and putting him away with his slider.

[brewcrewdue80]

I think they keep Loshe unless blown away.

As monty57 has laid out many times, they're not going to get blown away with an offer. Unless you consider getting "blown away" getting a B-grade prospect... and even that I think is probably a long shot. If I'm a GM, I really am not interested in parting with anything of value for Lohse at his age & salary. If I have to part with something of value, I'm going to target a younger & more cost-effective target.

 

K-Rod just got a B Grade Prospect for being a 2month rental.....Just saying....I sure value Lohse more than KRod.

Not to mention that B Grade prospect was given up for KRod to not even be the closer but fill in the 8th inning? So in a weaker value spot.

 

I'm picking Boston to get Lohse now. They are in shaky ground and a "Vet" like Lohse is just what can keep Boston from falling on their face.