Could there be a strong market for Lohse?

[HiAndTight]

I realize that it's unlikely that if the Brewers are within contention or even just over .500 that it's highly unlikely that the Brewers would deal Kyle Lohse.

 

I'm just curious what people think his value might be if we get to July for example and he's got a 3.10-ish ERA, he's health and pitching deep into games and perf, orming as he has the last two years?

 

Teams were obviously skiddish about Lohse because of the draft pick, because of concerns that he was overrated, but if he can come to Milwaukee and still produce at the same level he has been, could this actually end up being a guy that we end up dealing?

 

I would have to think there would be a plethora of teams who would love to have a guy like Lohse at a relatively cheap price the next two years given how he's produced the previous two and think we might actually end up getting more in return for him than the 17th pick was worth.

 

Would seem to be a very good fit in Texas with the way he keeps the ball down and with the bigger ball parks in the division(though his home division obviously isn't).

 

Very exciting how this team has bounced back and how they're performing extremely well....that said, a big part of the reason this team is looking good is because they have a guy named Jean Segura playing SS for them(and we have two light hitting SS's playing cornear IF spots somehow getting by).

 

 

Remember, projections for Lohse were 5 years 75 million dollars. Would the Yankees come calling if they're in contention? The O's? Another great fit. Bring Fiers back up, or Jimmy Nelson for a few starts, Rogers if he can get his velocity up, or even a guy like Hellweg to see what he has.

 

 

 

I know, I know, it doesn't fit the bill of how the Brewers do things. I'm glad they didn't go out and overspend on an Anibal Sanchez type guy and was actually impressed by their fiscal restraint this past off-season, but it'd be even nicer in a year in which we're almost certainly not going to make the playoffs to increase the value of Lohse and then turn him for a nice prospect.

[Bnowell4evr]

"but it'd be even nicer in a year in which we're almost certainly not going to make the playoffs to increase the value of Lohse and then turn him for a nice prospect."

 

Don't get the point of this post much less that quote when the Brewers have been on the kind of run they have with no Aramis Ramirez or Corey Hart.

[MNBrew]

When things are going decently in spite of 2 of our 3 top run-producers out, I can't see why we'd even remotely consider trading one of our best pitchers.

 

The only true justification for considering such a move would be having MLB-ready & essentially multiple sure-thing replacements on hand, which we don't -- at least not yet.

 

Time seems to show that the Brewers will only ever get as far as their pitching will take 'em. That, to me, makes Hart, Weeks, Gomez, or even Ramirez far more plausible trade candidates -- and I personally don't want to see any of 'em gone (at least not yet) -- than any promising pitchers, especially the most productive ones.

[jerichoholicninja]

I find it comical how every time the Brewers sign a guy to a multi-year contract it doesn't take long before there are already threads about what he could be traded for. I've stated many times I hated the Lohse signing but you don't give a guy 3 years and then go ahead and trade him halfway through year one.

[monty57]

I agree with those saying it's not going to happen. I see almost zero chance the Brewers trade Lohse this season, no matter how out of it they are.

 

That said, in regard to what value he'd have, I don't think it would be all that much. I don't think teams were too concerned as to how good he'd be this year... they were concerned about how good he'd be next year and the year after due to his age. Unless he really, really wanted to live in Milwaukee, the Brewers were the team that offered him the best deal, which could also be read as no one else was willing to pay him what the Brewers were willing to pay him.

 

From MLBTraderumors.com: "Lohse will reportedly earn just $4MM in 2013, followed by salaries of $11MM in 2014-15. The contract contains $7MM worth of deferred money that will be paid out from 2016-18."

 

Therefore, anyone trading for him (teams not willing to pay what the Brewers paid) would be paying most of the contract, while receiving the least productive years of the contract. So, if they weren't willing to give up a draft pick to get him for all three years, they wouldn't be willing to give up more than the draft pick when they're losing the cheapest and most productive year.

 

My guess is that there is no way we will trade him this year, he'll be a solid contributor for a while, but by the third year we'll wish we could trade him, and from 2016-2018 we'll be mad that we're still paying him.

[vegasbrewcrew1993]

If for some reason everything falls apart, we should try to trade him. I could see the Yankees being desperate enough to overpay for Lohse. I don't think that will happen though. The Brewers are playing good baseball without Aramis and Hart. Gallardo is still sort of cold and we are playing well. This team is going to kick some serious butt when Aramis and Hart are back from injuries and Gallardo heats up.

[sheetskout]

If for some reason everything falls apart, we should try to trade him. I could see the Yankees being desperate enough to overpay for Lohse. I don't think that will happen though. The Brewers are playing good baseball without Aramis and Hart. Gallardo is still sort of cold and we are playing well. This team is going to kick some serious butt when Aramis and Hart are back from injuries and Gallardo heats up.

 

 

Well, put a check on the third factor. Although Gallardo's start tonight was still pitch-inflated I still see it as a positive sign. The ERA is starting to come down. Aramis should be back in the next few days and it'll certainly be interesting to see how they play with him back.

 

I'm also REALISTIC (not comical) in the fact that if they are not within an acceptable range to contend for the division then they need to see what Lohse could bring them. I also don't think his contract is anything other teams would scoff at. He took a discount from his original requirements to come to Milwaukee and the receiving team would get most of that contract realized (in other words, it's like they just signed him as a free agent).

[TooLiveBrew]

I'm also REALISTIC (not comical) in the fact that if they are not within an acceptable range to contend for the division then they need to see what Lohse could bring them. I also don't think his contract is anything other teams would scoff at. He took a discount from his original requirements to come to Milwaukee and the receiving team would get most of that contract realized (in other words, it's like they just signed him as a free agent).

In this hypothetical, regarding the deferred money beyond Lohse's '14 & '15 salaries... I'd be happy for the Brewers to eat that money if it meant getting the right player(s) in return. I think two seasons of Lohse for a total of ~$22M would be pretty attractive to many (most?) contending teams in need of pitching.

[vegasbrewcrew1993]

If for some reason everything falls apart, we should try to trade him. I could see the Yankees being desperate enough to overpay for Lohse. I don't think that will happen though. The Brewers are playing good baseball without Aramis and Hart. Gallardo is still sort of cold and we are playing well. This team is going to kick some serious butt when Aramis and Hart are back from injuries and Gallardo heats up.

 

 

Well, put a check on the third factor. Although Gallardo's start tonight was still pitch-inflated I still see it as a positive sign. The ERA is starting to come down. Aramis should be back in the next few days and it'll certainly be interesting to see how they play with him back.

 

I'm also REALISTIC (not comical) in the fact that if they are not within an acceptable range to contend for the division then they need to see what Lohse could bring them. I also don't think his contract is anything other teams would scoff at. He took a discount from his original requirements to come to Milwaukee and the receiving team would get most of that contract realized (in other words, it's like they just signed him as a free agent).

 

Gallardo usually starts with a case of the April blues. In May is usually when we see the return of good Yovani. Tonight he threw a lot of pitches, but surrendered just 1 legit run. I won't count Maldonado's error. Yovani and Lohse is a good 1-2 punch. Marco is a solid #3. Willy will be up and down like most rookies. I think by the end of the year we will consider him to be a decent #4. That is fine for a rookie. I think that Burgos will lock down the #5 spot. The bullpen I think will settle at average. They won't be craptastic but they won't be above average either. They'll have dominating streches followed by comical stretches. The lineup is going to be top 3 in the MLB when the team gets healthy. Something would have to go horribly wrong for the Crew to end up being sellers. There's a better chance that Weeks goes back to his 2010 form than the Brewers ending up below .500 sellers.

[sheetskout]

Something would have to go horribly wrong for the Crew to end up being sellers. There's a better chance that Weeks goes back to his 2010 form than the Brewers ending up below .500 sellers.

 

I hate to be a pessimist, but I'm not sure I can buy into these two statements right now. Although I hope I'm wrong it's not probable that the Brewers contend for this division with their inexperience at pitcher and their propensity for injury. I think a better statement, unfortunately, would be "I think something would have to go horribly right for the Brewers to end up contending."

 

Second, you can't even pawn-off Weeks' struggles to injury recovery anymore. I just don't see how he's going to turn this around to make him worth his contract. The money would be better allocated elsewhere.

[logan82]

If he gets better he is worth the money. If he doesn't get better we will not be able to trade him and recoup any money. The money is spent. It cannot be reallocated.

[monty57]

Something would have to go horribly wrong for the Crew to end up being sellers. There's a better chance that Weeks goes back to his 2010 form than the Brewers ending up below .500 sellers.

 

I hate to be a pessimist, but I'm not sure I can buy into these two statements right now. Although I hope I'm wrong it's not probable that the Brewers contend for this division with their inexperience at pitcher and their propensity for injury. I think a better statement, unfortunately, would be "I think something would have to go horribly right for the Brewers to end up contending."

 

Second, you can't even pawn-off Weeks' struggles to injury recovery anymore. I just don't see how he's going to turn this around to make him worth his contract. The money would be better allocated elsewhere.

 

I think things would have to go horribly wrong for the Brewers to sell (like losing every game from now until the trade deadline), and things would have to go horribly right for the Brewers to make the playoffs. The Brewers have some talent, but it would still take a lot to make the playoffs. However, since they don't have a "must trade" player like Greinke last year, I don't see them selling even if they're seemingly out of it. I think they'd be more likely to trade some prospects to fill holes on the MLB roster.

[Eye Black]

I agree with those saying it's not going to happen. I see almost zero chance the Brewers trade Lohse this season, no matter how out of it they are.

 

That said, in regard to what value he'd have, I don't think it would be all that much. I don't think teams were too concerned as to how good he'd be this year... they were concerned about how good he'd be next year and the year after due to his age. Unless he really, really wanted to live in Milwaukee, the Brewers were the team that offered him the best deal, which could also be read as no one else was willing to pay him what the Brewers were willing to pay him.

I think losing a draft pick and the corresponding pool money was a bigger deterrent for most teams than the money Lohse received.

 

 

I'm also REALISTIC (not comical) in the fact that if they are not within an acceptable range to contend for the division then they need to see what Lohse could bring them. I also don't think his contract is anything other teams would scoff at. He took a discount from his original requirements to come to Milwaukee and the receiving team would get most of that contract realized (in other words, it's like they just signed him as a free agent).

In this hypothetical, regarding the deferred money beyond Lohse's '14 & '15 salaries... I'd be happy for the Brewers to eat that money if it meant getting the right player(s) in return. I think two seasons of Lohse for a total of ~$22M would be pretty attractive to many (most?) contending teams in need of pitching.

Completely agree with TLB on this point, the Brewers could make the deferred money a non-issue if the right offer was on the table.

[brewcrewdue80]

I was one of the blatant disagreement posters on signing Lohse. When the deal was done, not knowing Segura/Yuni would carry the Brewers like they have, made the comment:

My only hope in this deal giving up the 17th pick, is that the Brewers by having this deal in place for less money than what the market value originally was asked for Lohse would turn around and trade Lohse away at a deadline recouping in return a Prospect that would hopefully be held in better regards over a 17th draft pick.

 

I still hold out this hope and I'd have an open ear throughout the season on any offers for Lohse whether in contention for playoffs or not. Of course the more in contention the Brewers are, the better the offer should be to want to remove Lohse from the Staff.

Again, this is a club with a number of AAA SPs projected as back-end starters and that is today. Not in 2seasons so Lohse can be replaced.

 

Do I think there's a market for Lohse? You Bet! Strong? Too Early to tell. Of course Strong is objective. It is probably strong today as far a team willing to trade for Lohse. But are the trade offers strong in return for Milwaukee? That is my feeling on it being too early.

 

I also loved the deal in the low amount of money up front and it seems easy to me for an early season rental of Lohse for under 11mil while the AAAA pitchers work themselves out to making the staff. In return the club keeps a lower payroll on the season like they originally wanted and if trading Lohse away this year they improve the outlook for the next two seasons of payroll obligations.

 

Gotta ask the opinion. How upset would anyone be if the team did trade away Lohse pre All-Star break with the offense looking to be super potent? In that the Back-end starter that is called up to replace him is stepping in to a situation where a team is averaging what? 5runs a game let's say? Obviously, it would be a real decent prospect coming our way hypothetically in this scenario. So with that in mind how would you react? Brewers hovering around .500 to 10games above it?

[monty57]

I agree with those saying it's not going to happen. I see almost zero chance the Brewers trade Lohse this season, no matter how out of it they are.

 

That said, in regard to what value he'd have, I don't think it would be all that much. I don't think teams were too concerned as to how good he'd be this year... they were concerned about how good he'd be next year and the year after due to his age. Unless he really, really wanted to live in Milwaukee, the Brewers were the team that offered him the best deal, which could also be read as no one else was willing to pay him what the Brewers were willing to pay him.

I think losing a draft pick and the corresponding pool money was a bigger deterrent for most teams than the money Lohse received.

 

If they weren't willing to give up the draft pick, why in the heck would they trade anything of greater value than said draft pick to acquire Lohse in trade?

 

The draft pick compensation was obviously a concern, but so is Lohse's age. Just look at how many starting pitchers there are who are in their middle 30's. It's not very many. Take out Hall of Famer talent like Maddux, Johnson and Holliday and knuckleballers like Dickey and Wakeman, and the number of starting pitchers over the past decade who have made it to age 36 is very slim.

 

It is a tremendous risk to guarantee an eight figure salary to a pitcher through his mid-30's. Any team trading for him would be accepting the riskiest years of the contract, while the Brewers would get the lowest risk year. Throw in that this year is artificially cheap relative to the future, and that makes it less palatable to trade for him.

 

I still hold out this hope and I'd have an open ear throughout the season on any offers for Lohse whether in contention for playoffs or not. Of course the more in contention the Brewers are, the better the offer should be to want to remove Lohse from the Staff.

Again, this is a club with a number of AAA SPs projected as back-end starters and that is today. Not in 2seasons so Lohse can be replaced.

 

I also do not think that Lohse will be one of the Brewers' top five starters in two years, but there is zero chance that he will be traded this year. But I'll play along. Assuming the Brewers are at the top of the NL Central in July, please tell me which of our AAA starters look good enough that you think they'd be able to step into the MLB rotation this year to replace Lohse.

 

Burgos is the only SP from AAA that was putting up good numbers, and he's now in the MLB rotation. Thornberg and Hellweg sure aren't looking like they could come up and put up #2/3 starter numbers in the MLB rotation right now. Fiers has been demoted, and we'll have to see how he responds. Nelson is the only guy looking like a stud right now, but that's in AA. Most of our SP prospects (other than Peralta) figure to top out as middle-to-back-of-the-rotation starters, so when they're at their peak, they probably won't be as good as Lohse is this year. I think they'll be better than Lohse in two years due to their progression combined with Lohse's regression due to age, but that's in the future, not now.

 

I share the worry for the future, but whether it makes sense or not, Lohse isn't getting traded this year if the Brewers are out of the race. He certainly isn't getting traded this year if they are in the race. That would get Melvin fired and cause a fan exodus.

[brewcrewdue80]

I still hold out this hope and I'd have an open ear throughout the season on any offers for Lohse whether in contention for playoffs or not. Of course the more in contention the Brewers are, the better the offer should be to want to remove Lohse from the Staff.

Again, this is a club with a number of AAA SPs projected as back-end starters and that is today. Not in 2seasons so Lohse can be replaced.

 

I also do not think that Lohse will be one of the Brewers' top five starters in two years, but there is zero chance that he will be traded this year. But I'll play along. Assuming the Brewers are at the top of the NL Central in July, please tell me which of our AAA starters look good enough that you think they'd be able to step into the MLB rotation this year to replace Lohse.

 

Burgos is the only SP from AAA that was putting up good numbers, and he's now in the MLB rotation. Thornberg and Hellweg sure aren't looking like they could come up and put up #2/3 starter numbers in the MLB rotation right now. Fiers has been demoted, and we'll have to see how he responds. Nelson is the only guy looking like a stud right now, but that's in AA. Most of our SP prospects (other than Peralta) figure to top out as middle-to-back-of-the-rotation starters, so when they're at their peak, they probably won't be as good as Lohse is this year. I think they'll be better than Lohse in two years due to their progression combined with Lohse's regression due to age, but that's in the future, not now.

 

I share the worry for the future, but whether it makes sense or not, Lohse isn't getting traded this year if the Brewers are out of the race. He certainly isn't getting traded this year if they are in the race. That would get Melvin fired and cause a fan exodus.

 

The rest of the post stated that the AAA guys were/are to be back of the rotation guys. But guys with 5runs/gm run support meaning there would be enough wins going around on #5SP lines. I know Lohse is the #2/3 and he's likely to win us games at 1-3runs of support as well as the 5runs starts. Throwing it out there that to trade Lohse as a #2 and say a 7-4 record in his starts missed vs. inserting a AAA #5 and the team's ability to score runs I feel a 5-6 record. It's not a big loss on 2wins this season vs. attaining a player who may net quite a number of wins down the road. And the 11mil no longer spent? Not having a #2 aging Lohse next season? Well, obviously that money can be used on another SP if our 'In House" guys don't do the job.

Again it's all based on the prospect that is offered to the team. After Segura's success today/Trout/Harper last year, the fans I'm sure are high on what a prospect can do. They wouldn't run out mass exodus over a move that rids the team of Lohse when the next Segura may have just acquired.

[danzig6767]

The only chance i could see Attanasio allowing Lohse to be traded and assuming he pitches well enough to be wanted by other teams is if say

 

1.The team struggles to the point of finishing under .500 and worse than something like 80-82 or 79-83.

 

2. As the offseason progressed, both Melvin and Attanasio felt the odds were quite slim of the team being able to compete for a playoff berth next year.

 

Unless both things happened, i just don't see any chance Lohse would get traded. It's not how either of Melvin/Attanasio operate to trade a quality veteran player before a season starts if they have any belief that the team can at least compete for a playoff berth.

 

As for Lohse, for my personal perspective, it's been really enjoyable to watch him pitch so far. The way he attacks the strikezone, pitches quickly, and with such great command most of the time. He seems to pitch with total confidence in his stuff and ability to command all of his pitches, even though he barely touches over 90 mph. He's like the anti-Manny Parra.

[monty57]

But guys with 5runs/gm run support meaning there would be enough wins going around on #5SP lines. I know Lohse is the #2/3 and he's likely to win us games at 1-3runs of support as well as the 5runs starts. Throwing it out there that to trade Lohse as a #2 and say a 7-4 record in his starts missed vs. inserting a AAA #5 and the team's ability to score runs I feel a 5-6 record.

 

I believe what you are saying here is that since we have a good offense, we'll score so many runs that we don't need quality pitching. That's the type team we had over the past 6-7 seasons in the years in which we did not make the playoffs. In the two seasons we did make the playoffs, we had quality starting pitching. The "beer league softball team" strategy doesn't usually work well in the MLB.

 

It's not a big loss on 2wins this season vs. attaining a player who may net quite a number of wins down the road. And the 11mil no longer spent? Not having a #2 aging Lohse next season? Well, obviously that money can be used on another SP if our 'In House" guys don't do the job. Again it's all based on the prospect that is offered to the team. After Segura's success today/Trout/Harper last year, the fans I'm sure are high on what a prospect can do. They wouldn't run out mass exodus over a move that rids the team of Lohse when the next Segura may have just acquired.

 

Unless we trade Braun, we don't have the trading chips to bring in a Trout or Harper type of prospect. However, if your strategy is to trade a SP in order to bring back a good (not elite) prospect, I think you have to look at Gallardo, not Lohse. As I mentioned, since teams weren't willing to give up the draft pick to get Lohse, I don't think they'd be willing to give up more than the draft pick's value to trade for him, especially since they won't get all of presumably his best (age 34) year of the contract.

 

Unless both things happened, i just don't see any chance Lohse would get traded. It's not how either of Melvin/Attanasio operate to trade a quality veteran player before a season starts if they have any belief that the team can at least compete for a playoff berth.

 

Agreed. Look no further than the Ramirez-to-the-Dodgers situation last year for proof. The Dodgers wanted him, apparently were offering some of their best prospects for him, and Melvin basically said "I just signed him, so I'm not looking to trade him." That was a similar aged player signed to a similar contract in a similar situation to the one being discussed in this thread.

 

I'm not saying I wouldn't like an aging, expensive veteran to be traded if we're out of it. I would. I just don't think the Brewers will do it. The most likely to be traded would seem to be Hart, but with his knee issues, I don't think he's very tradeable. Therefore, I'm just sitting back enjoying this recent run by the Brewers and hoping they have enough gas in the tank to make it to the playoffs. They'll lose Hart this offseason, and they can decide then if they're going to trade other aging, expensive guys to go into next year.

[splitterpfj]

To answer the question, there would be a strong market for Lohse, if the Brewers were willing to deal him. He's a good pitcher, and those have always, are always and will always be in demand.

 

As so many have said before me...it'll never happen.

[monty57]

To answer the question, there would be a strong market for Lohse, if the Brewers were willing to deal him. He's a good pitcher, and those have always, are always and will always be in demand.

 

Except apparently this past offseason, when no one other than the Brewers were willing to give up their first round draft pick for him. Since no one was willing to sign the deal and give up a first round draft pick, I don't see why anyone would assume the deal, while losing the best performance and least expensive season, while giving up value equal to or greater than a first round draft pick.

 

Let's use a non-baseball analogy. If someone is selling three gizmo's, a big one, a medium sized one and a small one (with bigger being better). I win the auction for $10 for all three gizmos. Now I keep the biggest gizmo for myself, and put the other two gizmos back up for auction. Who in their right mind would give me more than $10 for the two remaining gizmos?

 

Lohse is at an age where most pitchers begin to regress significantly. Therefore, this season is likely to be better than next season, which is likely to be better than the third season, when there is a good possibility that he will no longer be a MLB-caliber pitcher. Not only were the Brewers the highest bidder in the auction that is free agency (meaning no one else was willing to pay as much as the Brewers at that point), they also are right now living through the best season Lohse is likely to have of the three-year deal. Because of the way the contract is structured, it is also by far the least expensive year of the deal, so his value is degenerating with every start. The third year of the deal probably has significant negative value, and the deferred money is all negative value. The Brewers would probably have to pay $18MM or so of the remaining contract in order to get a valuable piece back in trade, and that to me does not constitute a "strong market."

[splitterpfj]

Monty, I don't believe the Brewers were the only team willing to sign Lohse, I think Lohse is here because the Brewers were the first team to add a third year to their offer.

 

Losing a first-round draft pick to sign Lohse is the equivalent of trading a team's best A-ball level prospect to get him, which teams might be willing to do, but the kicker is, the team that signed him also loses the money allotted to sign that pick from their draft pool, which may also affect who they take in the next few rounds, knowing they may not be able to offer some kids what it would take to sign them.

 

In a trade scenario, if the Brewers made Lohse available in July, during a race, I simply do not believe there wouldn't be a market for him. Pitching is always in demand, and while the Brewers would have a veteran arm to deal, they'd also have the ability to eat some of the money on the contract, making Lohse less expensive to the acquiring team.

 

I guess it depends on what you would consider a "market" to be, I don't ever see Lohse netting an elite prospect, but I wouldn't be surprised if a team gave up two solid ones to get him, under the right conditions.

[monty57]

Right, teams realized that the third year has negative value, so in a trade, the last year of the contract would have negative value. Plus, the deferred money is all negative value. The only way to eliminate this negative value is to add money to the deal. Then, you're not just looking at the market for Lohse, but also the market for money which of course is pretty strong. I'd guess that the Brewers could get some pretty solid prospects from a team if they were to offer them $18MM... forget about adding a player.

 

So yes, if the Brewers were willing to eliminate the negative value of the third year and the deferred money, they would probably be able to get a return greater than the value of a first round pick. But that seems like a pretty expensive half-year rental of a free agent. They could've kept their draft pick and signed him for $1MM or so, and instead they end up paying around $20MM and end up with similar value to their first rounder they gave up, meaning the half year of Lohse cost the Brewers around $19MM.

[splitterpfj]

It won't happen, there is no way the Brewers will trade Lohse this season, no way, ever. Mr Attanasio just wouldn't allow it, he's was too competitive to leave Lohse on the market and keep the draft pick - there is NO WAY he would allow Lohse to be dealt in the first year of the deal.

 

I don't think it would happen, period, but the soonest the Brewers would ever deal the guy is next year, and that would require a monumental collapse of the team.

 

This owner plays to win first, and build later, and the big club is better with Lohse on it than it would be minus him, plus two in the minor leagues. I know a lot of people hate that, but it's just true. In an interview right before the start of the season, Attanasio said (paraphrasing, it was posted on jsonline), "You always have to weigh winning now vs restocking the farm system for the future - there will always be a lot of pressure from me to win."

 

Lohse plus money this July, just isn't in the mix, Lohse plus money next year, would take the owner deciding his team was out of next year's race, with little hope of being in the 2015 race either.

 

I just don't see this owner accepting a thing like that. If the Brewers had been at .500 last July, I don't believe Jean Segura would be on this team.

[monty57]

Splitter, I agree with you. I wasn't trying to say they'd trade him, because I don't believe they will. If they were 40 games out at the deadline, they wouldn't trade Lohse this year. Since Hart has probably lost most of his value due to his bad knee(s), they really don't have anyone they'd trade even if they're out of it.

 

I think the only trade likely this year will be some minor piece like Gonzalez or Lalli if they're in a situation of either DFA'ing them or trading them. It's probably much more likely that the Brewers trade away prospects to get a veteran "rental" than it is that they trade away a veteran for young players.

[HiAndTight]

I agree with those saying it's not going to happen. I see almost zero chance the Brewers trade Lohse this season, no matter how out of it they are.

 

That said, in regard to what value he'd have, I don't think it would be all that much. I don't think teams were too concerned as to how good he'd be this year... they were concerned about how good he'd be next year and the year after due to his age. Unless he really, really wanted to live in Milwaukee, the Brewers were the team that offered him the best deal, which could also be read as no one else was willing to pay him what the Brewers were willing to pay him.

 

From MLBTraderumors.com: "Lohse will reportedly earn just $4MM in 2013, followed by salaries of $11MM in 2014-15. The contract contains $7MM worth of deferred money that will be paid out from 2016-18."

 

Therefore, anyone trading for him (teams not willing to pay what the Brewers paid) would be paying most of the contract, while receiving the least productive years of the contract. So, if they weren't willing to give up a draft pick to get him for all three years, they wouldn't be willing to give up more than the draft pick when they're losing the cheapest and most productive year.

 

My guess is that there is no way we will trade him this year, he'll be a solid contributor for a while, but by the third year we'll wish we could trade him, and from 2016-2018 we'll be mad that we're still paying him.

 

 

I think basic common sense dictates that pitchers who are preforming well are in higher demand in season than out of season, and if a team has a chance to make the playoffs and Lohse continues to look like a 3.00-ish ERA pitcher, there would be teams interested.

 

Teams were wary of his value coming from St Louis as many a free agent pitcher has gone from pitching well in St Louis to struggling after that. Lohse isn't doing that. He's excelling again.