2013-04-26 Brewers (Burgos) at Dodgers (Beckett), 9:10 PM CDT [Brewers lose, 7-5]

[chadomac]

Wow. Don't love that ump today

[Gobias Industries]

Luis Cruz. Batting .087. Was gonna say, finally, there's one hitter worse than Weeks.

 

Proceeds to hit a rocket into left off our best reliever.

[vegasbrewcrew1993]

.....sellers again.....

[topper09er]

In that spot:

The Win Probability Inquirer

 

R/G__Inning_______________ Bases________Outs__Score Diff_____win%

4.50 Top of the seventh____Runner on third__1_____-1_______ 0.7554

4.50 Top of the seventh____Bases empty____2_____-2_______ 0.7926

 

 

You gain 4% with the squeeze, so it needs to work 97 / 100 times to be worth it

[The stache]

We should have won this game. Damn. Calling a stupid bunt, pitching around Punto, and now this. Just not our night.

[chickinbrickin]

Nice, Kinzler making the argument over the bunt a mute point.

[afeter]

weeks not only needs to sit, but also make some changes. Take the yuni approach swing at the first pitch for next 30 ABS. i have always said he needs quit the waggle and raise his damn hands up. If he doens't do something soon, he could very well be on his way out of baseball. what the hell happened to this guy. was it batting him leadoff. did that really screw up him so much that he can't pick pitches to swing at. was it steriouds. seriously what happened, just sad.

[ELCABALLO45]

In that spot:

The Win Probability Inquirer

 

R/G__Inning_______________ Bases________Outs__Score Diff

4.50 Top of the seventh Runner on third 1 -1 0.7554

4.50 Top of the seventh Bases empty 2 -2 0.7926

 

 

You gain 4% with the squeeze, so it needs to work 97 / 100 times to be worth it

 

Is that assuming Segura would of been out at 1st?

[Gobias Industries]

In that spot:

The Win Probability Inquirer

 

R/G__Inning_______________ Bases________Outs__Score Diff

4.50 Top of the seventh Runner on third 1 -1 0.7554

4.50 Top of the seventh Bases empty 2 -2 0.7926

 

 

You gain 4% with the squeeze, so it needs to work 97 / 100 times to be worth it

Wow. I knew it was a losing proposition in that spot, but that's ridic.

 

[sarcasm]But for the most part, it works for him.[/sarcasm]

[topper09er]

In that spot:

The Win Probability Inquirer

 

R/G__Inning_______________ Bases________Outs__Score Diff

4.50 Top of the seventh Runner on third 1 -1 0.7554

4.50 Top of the seventh Bases empty 2 -2 0.7926

 

 

You gain 4% with the squeeze, so it needs to work 97 / 100 times to be worth it

 

Is that assuming Segura would of been out at 1st?

 

Yss the second scenario is 2 outs no one on base 2 run lead

[afeter]

In that spot:

The Win Probability Inquirer

 

R/G__Inning_______________ Bases________Outs__Score Diff

4.50 Top of the seventh Runner on third 1 -1 0.7554

4.50 Top of the seventh Bases empty 2 -2 0.7926

 

 

You gain 4% with the squeeze, so it needs to work 97 / 100 times to be worth it

 

Is that assuming Segura would of been out at 1st?

 

this can't be factoring the lineup either. two best hitters due up and squeezing against a hard sinker

[topper09er]

In that spot:

The Win Probability Inquirer

 

R/G__Inning_______________ Bases________Outs__Score Diff

4.50 Top of the seventh Runner on third 1 -1 0.7554

4.50 Top of the seventh Bases empty 2 -2 0.7926

 

 

You gain 4% with the squeeze, so it needs to work 97 / 100 times to be worth it

Wow. I knew it was a losing proposition in that spot, but that's ridic.

 

[sarcasm]But for the most part, it works for him.[/sarcasm]

 

And it assumes average hitters, not Seggy/Braun

[FVBrewerFan]

Problem with Weeks is what do you do? They already have Yuni and Gonzalez playing the corners, who else is there? They're not going to sit Weeks anyhow making 8 figures. For a game or two sure. And it surpasses understanding why RR hasn't done that.

[The stache]

Sigh.

[ELCABALLO45]

In that spot:

The Win Probability Inquirer

 

R/G__Inning_______________ Bases________Outs__Score Diff

4.50 Top of the seventh Runner on third 1 -1 0.7554

4.50 Top of the seventh Bases empty 2 -2 0.7926

 

 

You gain 4% with the squeeze, so it needs to work 97 / 100 times to be worth it

 

Is that assuming Segura would of been out at 1st?

 

Yss the second scenario is 2 outs no one on base 2 run lead

 

So it's flawed? I mean, what is it if Segura was on 1st with 1 out and a run in? That scenario is assuming Segura would of been out at 1st.

[pebadger]

In a perverse way, the pen getting knocked around here softens the blow of the assumed outcome.

[chickinbrickin]

Problem with Weeks is what do you do? They already have Yuni and Gonzalez playing the corners, who else is there? They're not going to sit Weeks anyhow making 8 figures. For a game or two sure. And it surpasses understanding why RR hasn't done that.

 

You could ask Lucroy to drop a suitcase on his hand and call up Scooter.

[The stache]

Problem with Weeks is what do you do? They already have Yuni and Gonzalez playing the corners, who else is there? They're not going to sit Weeks anyhow making 8 figures. For a game or two sure. And it surpasses understanding why RR hasn't done that.

 

I don't care how much money he's making. If he's not performing at the level of even a passable Major Leaguer, he shouldn't be on the field. And right now, he's an automatic out at the plate, and an error waiting to happen in the field. How many balls have been hit to him, only to see the ball magically stick in his glove? He spent two weeks in the cleanup position, and for the year he has 3 RBI. He's awful at everything right now.

 

Salary should never be a concern, especially when there's a guy at AAA that's hitting .400. If you at least bring him up, maybe it lights a fire onder Rickie Weeks' butt. If not, let the kid have a shot. He's hit at every level of baseball, and he can't be any worse than Rickie Weeks. Who knows, he might be better. He'll certainly be much better at the fundamentals.

[rluzinski]

I asked you what you thought the break even point was and you ignored the question. The point is, the majority of the time, with a runner at 3rd with 1 out. 1 run will score without giving an out away. You also have a chance of scoring multiple runs. All managers know squeezes will work most of the time. Most are smart enough to know that isn't the point.

[topper09er]

 

Is that assuming Segura would of been out at 1st?

 

Yss the second scenario is 2 outs no one on base 2 run lead

 

So it's flawed? I mean, what is it if Segura was on 1st with 1 out and a run in? That scenario is assuming Segura would of been out at 1st.

 

Its not flawed because that is very unlikely, a suicide bunter doesnt try to run at all and usually lays down a terrible bunt to the pitcher. Anyways your scenario raises it to 82%, 7% increase, so you are saying 94/100 times Segura would get the bunt down and be safe at first

[FVBrewerFan]

Segura Would have been out at first. The 3B (Hairston) was 10 feet away from home plate. Would have beena routine out at 1B even with Segura's speed. (Because that's the other problem with the suicide, once the runner from 3rd takes off it gives away the play.)

[afeter]

In a perverse way, the pen getting knocked around here softens the blow of the assumed outcome.

 

if segura hits in his AB, the universe changes. we never how the game would have played out. I take no solace in the pen blowing up. It may never have happened this way

[ELCABALLO45]

I asked you what you thought the break even point was and you ignored the question. The point is, the majority of the time, with a runner at 3rd with 1 out. 1 run will score without giving an out away. You also have a chance of scoring multiple runs. All managers know squeezes will work most of the time. Most are smart enough to know that isn't the point.

 

So you responded with "you don't get it". Gotcha ya.

 

What is the break even point?

[ELCABALLO45]

Segura Would have been out at first. The 3B (Hairston) was 10 feet away from home plate. Would have beena routine out at 1B even with Segura's speed. (Because that's the other problem with the suicide, once the runner from 3rd takes off it gives away the play.)

 

The same guy who has 2 errors tonight?

[AZBrewCrew]

RISP on the wild pitch!