Jimmy Nelson Writeup on MiLB

[brewcrewdue80]

http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130423&content_id=45470846&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb&sid=milb

 

This is very encouraging read!

[TheCrew07]

Already posted 2 Days ago on this forum.

[monty57]

The Brewers really need some prospects to take that next step this season, and early on Nelson seems to be answering the challenge. If he keeps this up, how long before he gets bumped to AAA?

[TooLiveBrew]

Going off of past promotion activity, I would be pleasantly surprised to see Nelson bumped before the ASB. If he keeps pitching well, the ASB is when I'd bet he's moved up.

[homer]

Seems like the Brewers traditionally wait until the draft before promoting. Always exceptions to that, of course.

[rarjake]

guy should be called up to triple a in no time. He has been pwning it. His control has been excellent, all of his pitches have been great this year. The guy looks like he could be a middle or number 2 pitcher in the league right now. Who knows, I bet they will call him up to AAA soon. You can leave him in Double A long with him dominating as much as he is.

 

Wouldn't be totally shocked, if he gets called up for an emegerncy start, at some point during the season, to see what he gots. Of course you would just option him back down, but would love to see him.

[Mass Haas]

Wouldn't be totally shocked, if he gets called up for an emegerncy start, at some point during the season, to see what he gots. Of course you would just option him back down, but would love to see him.

 

Not on the 40-man roster, so September would be the absolute earliest, when rosters expand, since he'll need to be added this offseason.

[Madtown343]

AAA by mid season, September callup. Has great reliever potential down the stretch if we're in a playoff race.

[Madtown343]

Similar to lance Lynn for the cards before he became a starter the next year.

[torts]

The Brewers really need some prospects to take that next step this season, and early on Nelson seems to be answering the challenge. If he keeps this up, how long before he gets bumped to AAA?

 

I agree with you! And I feel like Nelson is following the path Burgos laid in front of him!

[fondybrewfan]

Correct me if I am wrong but he probably has a ceiling similar to Peralta (I.E. probably a #2 type guy). Mid 90's fastball with solid control and developing offspeed stuff sounds very encouraging to me.

 

We could have a nice stable of cheap good starters in the near future with Burgos, Peralta, and Nelson to pair with Gallardo, Lohse, and Estrada. That puts quite a bit less pressure on guys like Thornburg, Bradley, and Jungmann to develop quickly. If those guys develop its great but we don't necessarily "need" them in the near future.

[CheezWizHed]

If those guys develop its great but we don't necessarily "need" them in the near future.

 

I can't think of a time that we didn't "need" pitching.

[DHonks]

Not sure how Peralta's ceiling is as a #2. He throws 95-98 with lots of movement, has a huge slider, and a very good changeup. His ceiling is a top flight #1 and his floor is a power setup man.

[TooLiveBrew]

Not sure how Peralta's ceiling is as a #2. He throws 95-98 with lots of movement, has a huge slider, and a very good changeup. His ceiling is a top flight #1 and his floor is a power setup man.

It's hesitance to believe that he's suddenly going to develop the command of a Halladay-in-his-prime, or whatever other bona fide MLB #1 you want to use as an example. The stuff is undeniably #1-caliber. But his command has been lacking at every level, so it's a bit much to say that he's realistically got a shot at turning into a MLB #1. If he winds up as a legit #2 type, I'll be over the moon. He doesn't seem to repeat his mechanics very consistently, and that leads to a lot of command issues.

[HiAndTight]

Not sure how Peralta's ceiling is as a #2. He throws 95-98 with lots of movement, has a huge slider, and a very good changeup. His ceiling is a top flight #1 and his floor is a power setup man.

It's hesitance to believe that he's suddenly going to develop the command of a Halladay-in-his-prime, or whatever other bona fide MLB #1 you want to use as an example. The stuff is undeniably #1-caliber. But his command has been lacking at every level, so it's a bit much to say that he's realistically got a shot at turning into a MLB #1. If he winds up as a legit #2 type, I'll be over the moon. He doesn't seem to repeat his mechanics very consistently, and that leads to a lot of command issues.

 

 

That directly contradicts the entire concept of what "ceiling," means. Roy Halladay if you'll recall had issues with his mechanics when he was the EXACT same age at Peralta and sporting a 10+ ERA.

 

He was sent down to AAA to refine his delivery and...the rest is history.

 

There's simply no question he has the upside to be a #1. The suggestion here is that command can't be improved. He's a 23 year old who's flashed signs of dominance this year.

 

And further using Doc Hallday as an example, he had BB/9 rates of 4.8 and 5.6 in his 22 and 23 year old seasons.

 

If a pitchers stuff has the ceiling of a #1, he has the ceiling of a #1. There are a lot of young guys who's pitches move SO much(as Peralta's fastball does, even at 96 it looks like it's a split finger fastball at times) that it takes them a while to harness it.

 

I wouldn't expect it. But I don't see how it can be argue that's his ceiling. Same with Nelson...

[HiAndTight]

If those guys develop its great but we don't necessarily "need" them in the near future.

 

I can't think of a time that we didn't "need" pitching.

 

 

That's because he didn't say there HAS been a time. He said IF Nelson, Peralta, Burgos develop and combine with Gallardo, Lohse and Estrada THEN we wouldn't "need," and it would take pressure off guys like Jungman, Bradley and Thornburg in the near future....

 

I would say that statement is 100 pct true. It would give Bradley and Jungman in particular more time to develop and hopefully live up to their promise.

 

 

So basically, if we have 6 pichers, 3 already solid proven pitchers and 3 young, very talented pitchers produce, we won't have a need for starting pitchers in the NEAR future.....

[HiAndTight]

Wouldn't be totally shocked, if he gets called up for an emegerncy start, at some point during the season, to see what he gots. Of course you would just option him back down, but would love to see him.

 

Not on the 40-man roster, so September would be the absolute earliest, when rosters expand, since he'll need to be added this offseason.

 

 

I doubt if the Brewers are contending for a playoff spot and they think Nelson could provide a big lift out of the pen that they couldn't find a spot on the 40 man for him.

 

Rogers might end up on the 60 man the longer this goes, Lalli could lose his 40 man spot, etc..etc...

 

Obvious options if Nelson is that overwhelming that he could give the Brewers a big boost the last 2 months of the season.

[DHonks]

HiAndTight, actually Halladay was sent down to A-ball. I believe that--as of last year--he still holds the record for highest ever ERA in a season for a starting pitcher. For much of the early parts of their careers, Chris Carpenter and Roy Halladay had the stuff of a #1 but--by TooLiveBrew's logic--were profiled as either #5's or AAAA-types. They both flat out sucked early in their careers.

[TooLiveBrew]

Chris Carpenter and Roy Halladay had the stuff of a #1 but--by TooLiveBrew's logic--were profiled as either #5's or AAAA-types. They both flat out sucked early in their careers.

Melodramatic much? I was discussing why he gets a #2 or 3 upside label instead of #1. No idea where you got the magical "AAAA" label.

 

I used Halladay as an example because he displayed better command as a minor leaguer than Peralta has so far. The only time in the minors that Halladay was close to Peralta's BB/9 rate was when Roy was a 20 & 21-yo at AAA (Peralta was at A & A+ at those ages).

 

Sure, Wily could turn the corner & really harness his mechanics, but he's a long shot to do that, hence why he doesn't get the #1 upside label. And fwiw I am a big Peralta fan. I love his repertoire, and look forward to watching his starts more than anyone not named Gallardo. His stuff is absolutely good enough for a #1, I don't think there's much question about that.

[HiAndTight]

Chris Carpenter and Roy Halladay had the stuff of a #1 but--by TooLiveBrew's logic--were profiled as either #5's or AAAA-types. They both flat out sucked early in their careers.

Melodramatic much? I was discussing why he gets a #2 or 3 upside label instead of #1. No idea where you got the magical "AAAA" label.

I used Halladay as an example because he displayed better command as a minor leaguer than Peralta has so far. The only time in the minors that Halladay was close to Peralta's BB/9 rate was when Roy was a 20 & 21-yo at AAA (Peralta was at A & A+ at those ages).

 

Sure, Wily could turn the corner & really harness his mechanics, but he's a long shot to do that, hence why he doesn't get the #1 upside label. And fwiw I am a big Peralta fan. I love his repertoire, and look forward to watching his starts more than anyone not named Gallardo. His stuff is absolutely good enough for a #1, I don't think there's much question about that.

 

 

Yeah, AND when he was in the big leagues and had walk rates of 4.8 and 5.6 when he was 22 and 23...the same age Peralta is right now.

 

And I think your last line contradicts your argument that his "ceiling," is a #2/#3. If his stuff is good enough to be an ace, that's his ceiling. I'm also curious why he's a "long shot to harness his mechanics?"

 

The word ace is thrown around too much, but the Brewers have a couple guys in the minor league system with the CEILINGS of a #1 or #2. Unlikely we'll ever see it as with most pitchers. I don't believe in 3-4 years well see Peralta and Nelson leading a 96 win team, but they certainly have that upside. To be able to throw a 98 MPH pitch by you, get ground balls, and then have a put away pitch like a slider makes you a potential ace.

[HiAndTight]

HiAndTight, actually Halladay was sent down to A-ball. I believe that--as of last year--he still holds the record for highest ever ERA in a season for a starting pitcher. For much of the early parts of their careers, Chris Carpenter and Roy Halladay had the stuff of a #1 but--by TooLiveBrew's logic--were profiled as either #5's or AAAA-types. They both flat out sucked early in their careers.

 

 

Yeah, I always forget that Carpenter came up with Halladay.

 

I find it illogical to say a guys stuff is good enough to be a #1 but he lacks the command(when talking about a young prospect or 23 year old big leaguer). It's a very rare pitcher that comes up at 23 and has a 98 MPH fastball, can command his off-speed pitches and is well polished.

 

I think as long as Peralta stays healthy, he's got a solid chance to be a #1, Most guys in that category don't end up becoming aces, but you're always looking for the ones who can round it out and become one.