Behold the Talents of Jean Segura

[The stache]

If the Brewers didn't extend Braun until a few months into his second year, does anyone think they'd try to negotiate with Segura sooner? This just isn't something that's routine by any stretch and I don't believe Segura is at the same level as Braun.

 

Even the Angels haven't extended Trout yet - and his ROY season was about as good than Braun's.

 

That's the first player I thought of. If Trout's not getting extended after the year he had, then Segura won't. And we still have a lot of baseball before Jean's even finished with his true rookie season (though he doesn't technically qualify as a rook).

[RockCoCougars]

Again, can you give me one similar example of a multi-year deal this early in a player's career before more evaluation takes place?

Since PFx1 hasn't even bothered to address this, I think you can assume that answer is "no"

 

The best example of this I can think of was when they did something similar with Pat Listach.... which would also be a great example of why you should proceed with caution in such a scenario.

[502 to Right]

I love me some Jean Segura. But the Brewers are at least a year away from extending him.

[sheetskout]

Again, can you give me one similar example of a multi-year deal this early in a player's career before more evaluation takes place?

 

Salvador Perez signed an extension with the Royals last year when he had accumulated 0.050 service time, which is less than Segura has now. It was a five year contract with three additional club option years. I am not in favor of the Brewers exploring an extension with Segura until after this season, but at this point a buyout of his arbitration eligible years with some additional club option years would not be completely unprecedented.

 

Wow I didn't know that. Thanks for the reference.

 

Just FYI. Here is a link to MLBTradeRumor's Extension Database. You can sort by Service Time.

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/extensiontracker

[RobDeer 45]

Wow did he look good last night! Just playing some outstanding baseball right now. That's all.

[fondybrewfan]

If it weren't for Tulo he might be the odds on favorite to start the All Star Game right now.

[recte44]

Yes, it's really all about name recognition at this point in regards to the All-Star Game. We need to rock the vote.

[adambr2]

I find it mildly annoying that referring to Jean Segura as a "rookie" is technically, incorrect.

[brewcrewdue80]

I'm confused. Where are these HRs coming from? I thought Segura was going to be gaps doubles/triples kind of guy lucky to reach double digit HRs in a season?

I know it's early and it could be a long while til his next HR, but he's obviously on pace suddenly to reach double digits in HRs by season's end.

 

It just makes it all the more pleasing that I correctly called for him to bat 2nd in the lineup before the season even began. That it was absurd to insert a player with higher BA over a guy like Weeks with OB or HR power to score runs.

I guess what I seen in Segura last season was that he reminds me of a Cirillo/Loretta/Vina types who just know how to hit a baseball and are pests at the plate for the opposing pitchers. It's been awhile since I'd seen that on a Brewer team..those three....that Segura stood out to me. Aoki last season was that way too but he's older so he didn't leave that big an impression.

I am very much warming to the idea of a contract to Segura with each passing game. But that's all the Homer in me. Business wise- the team still waits through the season. As I said earlier in other posts, Austin Jackson to Starlin Castro are the likely pairings of player contracts we are looking at by doing it this off season vs waiting.

[The stache]

I think at his peak Jean Segura could really be a 15-20 home run a season guy. I'm not kidding. When I've talked with people about him in other places, they just don't see it. The kid's strong, a lot stronger than people give him credit for. And those arms and wrists give him some outstanding bat speed.

 

Far too many people think a hitter has to be 6'3 220 lbs to be a power hitter. Power comes from bat speed, as Ted Williams said. He said he could generate power with a lighter bat because of the additional speed he could generate, and I believe him. I consider Williams the greatest pure hitter the game has ever seen. Hank Aaron is another one. Compare Jean to Hank Aaron:

 

Jean Segura 5'10" 200 lbs

Hank Aaron 6' 180 lbs

 

Not that much different. Aaron was a great power hitter because he had some of the strongest wrists a hitter has ever had. I've read quite a few accounts about how Aaron could wait longer on pitches than most hitters because he could drive the bat through the strike zone so much quicker than almost anybody else. It gave him just a little more time to identify the pitch. Aaron didn't have a lot of loft to his home runs, but he was so strong, and so quick, that a lot of the line drives he hit just flew into the stands.

 

We've already seen Jean Segura use the entire field when hitting. He's outstanding at taking the ball to right field. He's so good that he could win a batting title or two. That's not hyperbole. As of at least a few days ago, he was leading the Majors in infield hits. He's got the eye to take what's given to him, and make it work. And he's got the speed to beat out routine grounders. Don't be surprised if this guy is a consistent .300 + hitter like Braun year in and year out.

[danzig6767]

I'm blown away by just how great Segura looks both at the plate and defensively. What a trade to steal him. The Angels have to be so bummed that they lost this kid for two months of Greinke. A young talent like him just brings a level of excitement to an organization and fans.

 

His emergence and Gomez hitting so well has been huge in covering for Ramirez/Hart being out and when those two get back, the offense could end up being lethal.

[Eye Black]

The Angels have to be so bummed that they lost this kid for two months of Greinke.

A forum post from yesterday on AngelsWin.com...

 

Jean Segura = 1.5 fWAR in April (.367/.418/.567)

 

Mike Trout + Albert Pujols + Josh Hamilton + Peter Bourjos + Howie Kendrick + Erick Aybar + Alberto Callaspo + Chris Iannetta = 1.4 fWAR in April

[Funketown]

Career line in 264 PA's: .299/.354/.415. Combine that with very solid defense and you have one of the better SS's in the league even if he stays on that level.

 

This team shouldn't have to worry about SS until 2019. That sounds pretty good.

[homer]

The Angels have to be so bummed that they lost this kid for two months of Greinke.

A forum post from yesterday on AngelsWin.com...

 

Jean Segura = 1.5 fWAR in April (.367/.418/.567)

 

Mike Trout + Albert Pujols + Josh Hamilton + Peter Bourjos + Howie Kendrick + Erick Aybar + Alberto Callaspo + Chris Iannetta = 1.4 fWAR in April

 

 

That is amazing.

[3and2Fastball]

Not that much different. Aaron was a great power hitter because he had some of the strongest wrists a hitter has ever had. I've read quite a few accounts about how Aaron could wait longer on pitches than most hitters because he could drive the bat through the strike zone so much quicker than almost anybody else. It gave him just a little more time to identify the pitch. Aaron didn't have a lot of loft to his home runs, but he was so strong, and so quick, that a lot of the line drives he hit just flew into the stands.

.

 

Aaron really was incredible like that. Alot of scouts saw a similar bat speed quality with Rickie Weeks, which led to Weeks being the #1 pick. It sure looked like Rickie could've been a superstar but alas it seems not meant to be.

 

Not that any of that about Weeks has anything to do with Segura but the comments about Aaron and bat speed had me thinking about the way I used to think about the potential of Rickie Weeks when he was in AA & AAA ball. The difference being that Aaron was a solid .300 hitter who could lay off the outside curveball in ways that Weeks never has. Weeks' wrist injuries may have effected his ability to deal with the high fastball too

 

I really love watching Jean Segura play baseball. As a Little League coach, I think the attitude, hustle and pure apparent love for the game that both Segura and Carlos Gomez display are qualities that any coach at any level would love to see in their players. Add to that the great athletic talent and speed and you can see why Segura has the potential to be a fan favorite for many years.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Segura has 4 home runs in the last 30 or so AB's. He's already showing power, which is much faster than I thought he would. For those that think the Brewers should wait and sign him till after this season is over with, do you really want to pay him that extra 20 million that you know he will get should you wait?

 

It's making more sense more than ever to just extend him right now.

[brewcrewdue80]

You're right PFX1, I'm no longer really on the Fence on trying to extend him. Part of one of the reasons to wait was to see what type of hitter he looks. A Gaps only power guy or someone who could clear the fences. The scouting on him left the impression he would be hard pressed to see more than 10HRs in a season and maybe peak out in the 15 range on his best seasons. That worried me that he may only be a 5-8HR guy for a season. I also didn't expect the SB output, yes a threat on the base paths but would it be used enough? And so far yeah it's being used. It's still very early to think Segura can jump 20mil in contract value through the end of play this season unless the team is signing him 8-10years.

Still comparing to Austin Jackson a 3.5mil 1st year Arb player after 5+WAR years his first 3. For years 5 and 6 how much money can Austin get? It's not even 5mil for him paid in first 4years. 2 more to go, I just cant see him commanding over 10mil a piece those two years which then puts him at 25mil roughly first 6years if he does get 10mil on avg year 5/6.

 

So when I look at it in that way it's 25mil value for Segura through his first six...We'll call it 27 for inflation. How many years do you lock up beyond arb controlled?

He would turn 29 the first FA year what do you pay him til? 31? 32?

So pretty much it's 3-4years extended beyond Arb controlled 27mil figure.

 

I find it the team has to extend at least 3years if not 4 beyond control for the value of true money savings. The Castro contract he makes 24mil total his first 6 team controlled years. 30mil the 3 after. Total 54mil. 16mil option. Following along those lines the extra 20mil youre counting on Segura increasing his contract following this season vs now, Again it's 26-27mil his first 6years the 30 on top so it's 56mil at that point for 3years beyond.

You would be suggesting the club would be missing out on extending him through this season from 10mil/yr FA years 1,2,3 to 16mil a year to reach 74mil 20more than Castro's.

Troy Tulowitzki gets 16mil finally in his 8th season 20 for 9th which that's where we'd be finishing at on a extension likely. And That's after Tulo had an original contract like Braun and then getting the 2nd extension to get there.

 

Just saying based on what's out there I can't find any reason to think Segura can ask for 16mil a year for year's 7/8/9 after this season. The club has the power in knowing it's a 27mil cost holding him for 6years through Arb if Segura doesn't want to take an offer of 10mil a year beyond control. No risk on the Brewers end then while Segura risks it all by not taking 10mil/yr today vs saying he's worth 16mil for those 3years.

I truly believe Castro's contract is what is likely to happen with Segura with maybe 1mil more over his first 6years than Castro but 9/10/11 the 3FA years. Maybe some extreme season it may get up to 10/11/12 but that's only 3mil extra if the clubs waits through the end of this season.

Maybe you're thinking the 4th or 5th year beyond? Willing to extend him that long in to his 32/33 age seasons? That just seems way too much risk. If you want to take that on and pay him along the lines of 14/15 mil those years(Castro's option is for 16) well sure than waiting a year or more at his current level of play that amount could be considerably cheap in value when those year's arrive. Or it will be an albatross of a contract should Segura run in the injury bug kinda like Jose Reyes. The team would owe him roughly 30mil for age 32/33 seasons. Seeing how Rickie has declined among many others at that age(projecting Rickie to continue his downward trend) just seems silly to lock him up to that contract just to save maybe 5-8mil a year long term. I mean 5-8mil with best projection of production vs. losing 15mil/yr if decline/injury riddled, I just cant see the point. I'd rather take on the extra 5mil closer to that time than securing 15mil today trying to see 9years in the future of a SS remaining healthy that long and knowing his batting skills will hold up that long.

 

Andrus contract extension was at 15mil a for the majority on a team with plenty a capable payroll to take that on. So again, say Castro's is 10mil FA years to Andrus 15mil. In that range it's 4years of money to assume a 20mil savings by extending Segura today vs end of season. Andrus is only 1year older than Segura while in his 5th year so while it's a big contract Andrus's original FA aged years would have been 26,27, and so on. Not the 29,30 we're looking at with Segura.

 

Basically, we have Segura for his 6 prime years regardless of extending or not. The extension years would be at the time his skills would stall and begin to decline. If Segura were 2 years younger I'd be much more on track with a long extension. But, he's not, and the timing is perfect for the club to sign him through his age 32 season. Doing that today or end of season though I just can't fathom Segura being able to talk his way in to being 15mil/yr locked up over 10mil/year locked up which is the 20 mil extra you're afraid he will be able to command.

 

Think about that. The way Arb is working, there's no way Segura can make more than 28mil til he'd become a Free Agent. While his value may rise through the roof waiting til then, he could also stall/become injured. For him to ask the team for 20mil more on an extension vs the likely offer they give him, is just such a risk on his end. 10mil to 15mil to 20mil...The longer he waits the better chances he approaches 20mil but if he goes through a rough injury period he is throwing away 10-15mil locked up to try and earn an extra 5mil? Just not smart.

Then you have Gomez's production and his 7/8/9mil contract. It's just out there to think Segura can command such a high contract after 1+ year vs what the rest of the team around him is making. 15mil has to be the highest he can command for his first 4 FA years on an Extension. And I just don't see how Segura would win that in talks.

Maybe you're valuing the Brewers having an ability to sign Segura to those first 3/4 FA years at around 7/8/9mil a year if done today? And if waited then he's capable of asking for 12/12/13/14 type of deal instead?

Considering the current market, for Segura to lock up 7/7/8/9 let's say FA years would just be taking a potential huge paycut(Half) and I see no reason for him to consider that money and wait a year or two. Castro's contract has to be the numbers he and the Brewers would be working off of. So that's 9/10/11 option at 16. And that's a good contract to me with that 16mil option. I cant see the numbers Segura puts up exceeding that by an enormous amount.

[JJHardy7]

Trading for Segura looks like it could go down as one of Melvin's better moves. I really like him and was thrilled we got him from the Angels, but I do think it is a bit early to given him an extension. I think the Brewers should kick the tires and discuss with Jean and his agent. I think this will give them a sense of what they want...Segura deep down believes he'll be an all-star every year he may not want to sign the deal.

 

Also, I hope I'm 100% wrong, but I really don't believe he can sustain this success over the whole year. If he doesn't, why would you give him an extension when he might be at his highest value? That doesn't make a ton of sense unless it is a player like Braun....so in other words...is Segura = Braun?

[thebruce44]

Not that much different. Aaron was a great power hitter because he had some of the strongest wrists a hitter has ever had. I've read quite a few accounts about how Aaron could wait longer on pitches than most hitters because he could drive the bat through the strike zone so much quicker than almost anybody else. It gave him just a little more time to identify the pitch. Aaron didn't have a lot of loft to his home runs, but he was so strong, and so quick, that a lot of the line drives he hit just flew into the stands.

.

 

Aaron really was incredible like that. Alot of scouts saw a similar bat speed quality with Rickie Weeks, which led to Weeks being the #1 pick. It sure looked like Rickie could've been a superstar but alas it seems not meant to be.

 

Not that any of that about Weeks has anything to do with Segura but the comments about Aaron and bat speed had me thinking about the way I used to think about the potential of Rickie Weeks when he was in AA & AAA ball. The difference being that Aaron was a solid .300 hitter who could lay off the outside curveball in ways that Weeks never has. Weeks' wrist injuries may have effected his ability to deal with the high fastball too

 

I really love watching Jean Segura play baseball. As a Little League coach, I think the attitude, hustle and pure apparent love for the game that both Segura and Carlos Gomez display are qualities that any coach at any level would love to see in their players. Add to that the great athletic talent and speed and you can see why Segura has the potential to be a fan favorite for many years.

 

Not to nitpick, but Weeks was the #2 pick behind Delmon Young.

[nate82]

Is Segura the best SS in the NL right now?

[brettac1]

Tulowitzki is.

[3and2Fastball]

Not to nitpick, but Weeks was the #2 pick behind Delmon Young.

 

That is right, forgot about that.

 

I agree that Tulo is still the best SS in the NL but Segura is closing fast

[TheCrew07]

I agree that Tulo is still the best SS in the NL but Segura is closing fast

 

Tulowitzki is a 5-6 WAR player every year when he's healthy, Segura is off to good a start in his first full season but he needs to complete a season in that range before we can really start making that kind of comparison. I'm not saying Segura doesn't have the talent, I think he clearly does, he just doesn't have the track record.

[3and2Fastball]

I agree that Tulo is still the best SS in the NL but Segura is closing fast

 

Tulowitzki is a 5-6 WAR player every year when he's healthy, Segura is off to good a start in his first full season but he needs to complete a season in that range before we can really start making that kind of comparison. I'm not saying Segura doesn't have the talent, I think he clearly does, he just doesn't have the track record.

 

Absolutely. I agree. That said Segura has already put up a 2.1 WAR (according to BaseballReference.com at least) on the season in just 34 games, which is pretty phenomenal.

 

Tulowitzki has been "amost as good" with a 1.9 WAR so far batting .324 with 8 HR's and an OPS over 1.000

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/segurje01.shtml

[The stache]

I think the gap between Tulo and Segura is rapidly closing. Both are Gold Glove caliber defensive shortstops, both can hit for power, Tulo moreso. Both can hit for average. The difference is Jean's speed. He's going to steal 40-50 bases.

 

Love this kind of debate. And even more, I love that I have both on my fantasy team.