Behold the Talents of Jean Segura

[PrinceFielderx1]

 

Waiting costs money. There's some players where you just know they are special and Segura is one of them.

 

Kind of like Mark Rogers being a future Ace?

 

Not at all actually, and you should be smart enough to know that they are completely different and it's like comparing apples to oranges. I'm not alone, Daubs. read this thread and go to the proposals section and read "segura contract extension thread."

[azcheesehead]

I am craving a navy blue "Milwaukee" Segura jersey...anyone know where I can get one? Can't seem to find one online.

 

Brewers.com shop. Personalized jerseys. Road Alternate. Drop down menu. You can get any player you want.

[Daubs]

 

Waiting costs money. There's some players where you just know they are special and Segura is one of them.

 

Kind of like Mark Rogers being a future Ace?

 

Not at all actually, and you should be smart enough to know that they are completely different and it's like comparing apples to oranges. I'm not alone, Daubs. read this thread and go to the proposals section and read "segura contract extension thread."

 

Uh...you're missing the point. How many people have called Segura "special"? You're overreaching again, much like you did when you called Rogers a "future ace".

[Invader3K]

Rogers hasn't done anything close in the majors to warrant any talk of a long term contract, unlike Segura. Not sure why anyone would even bother creating such a comparison.

[Oxy]

In addition to saving millions by locking him up early, there is also cost certainty that enables for easier budgeting. I wouldn't have a problem with extending him through his arbitration years plus maybe one year of free agency, but I don't think I'd go beyond that without a lot of vesting options through significant performance clauses.

[PrinceFielderx1]

In addition to saving millions by locking him up early, there is also cost certainty that enables for easier budgeting. I wouldn't have a problem with extending him through his arbitration years plus maybe one year of free agency, but I don't think I'd go beyond that without a lot of vesting options through significant performance clauses.

 

Or simply just club options for FA years. Alcedes escobar has 3 club options for FA years I believe.

 

Edit: He has 2 club options for FA years. only a .5 Million buyout for each one, and doesn't make more than 6.5 million in FA.

[DHonks]

Here's my thinking with the 8 year $45 million idea. We're seeing a lot of good early this season, so it's a bit skewed

2014: $500k

2015: $550k (total=$1.05 million)

2016: arby 1--$3.5 million (total=$4.55m)

2017: arby 2--$6.5 million (total=$11.05m)

2018: arby 3--$9 million (total=20.05m)

FA1-3: $11 million per season (total= 53.05m). That's projecting he keeps looking good as a player, so it's risky. But I think there is greater likelihood of him being $14m/season by arby 3 than $7 million.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Here's my thinking with the 8 year $45 million idea. We're seeing a lot of good early this season, so it's a bit skewed

2014: $500k

2015: $550k (total=$1.05 million)

2016: arby 1--$3.5 million (total=$4.55m)

2017: arby 2--$6.5 million (total=$11.05m)

2018: arby 3--$9 million (total=20.05m)

FA1-3: $11 million per season (total= 53.05m). That's projecting he keeps looking good as a player, so it's risky. But I think there is greater likelihood of him being $14m/season by arby 3 than $7 million.

 

For a pre arby extension I believe your last year of arby is about 2 million too high, and I think he will get between 7.5 million and 9 million in FA max. This is if we sign him during this season.

[adambr2]

 

You said it we will save money and control a plus SS defender who has shown good plate discipline, contact, ability to hit the baseball, and beat out throws with his plus speed. SS like this don't come around that often, so let's lock him up for 8-9 years and not have to worry about SS for a long time. Sounds good to me.

 

I can guarantee you that if we wait till after this season, he will either A.) Be more expensive and require more guaranteed money or B.) decide to wait another year and put a halt to contract talks and then ask for eve more money likely around 55-60 million compared to only 15-20 million guaranteed for 6 years with club options for the final 3 years of an 9 year deal. How about we don't let either happen?

 

Waiting costs money. There's some players where you just know they are special and Segura is one of them.

 

We don't know that he's special. He could be, and I hope he is. But Segura is not the first and won't be the last young player to leave that impression over a small sample.

 

Bill Hall looked more than "special" after 2006 and we locked him up. He looked like a superstar already. In the end, it was one of the worst contracts in franchise history. If you do this after 3 weeks with every young player, you're going to lock up every Tony Gwynn Jr, John Axford, and Manny Parra that you have on your roster.

 

Again I love Segura but people are getting caught up in the emotion of his performance so far. Unless he continues to hit .375 the whole season, which he won't, he's not going to skyrocket in price from where he's already at from now until the end of the season. Braun only got 8 years $45M after a full season of one of the best rookie years ever, and he already projected much more as a superstar than Segura does.

 

We don't know nearly enough about Segura to decide what he is worth yet. There were people who made reasonable arguments just months ago that they felt Alex Gonzalez should be the starter at SS this year with Segura on the pine or in AAA. Would it be that crazy to see the guy play for at least half a season before we throw Ryan Braun first contract money at him?

 

And if Segura is THIS good, why is he even willing to sell off his arby years for $15-$20M total and then give club options for his next 3 years? Just because it's early doesn't mean we can just throw the most team-flexible deal possible on the table and get him to sign it.

 

There has been no talk whatsoever of a Segura extension from the organization, just fan chatter and speculation that has gained steam from him playing very well. It's APRIL of his first season with us!

[PrinceFielderx1]

Adam,

 

Should Segura break out this year and the Brewers just sit by and wait on an extension Seguras price will increase quite a bit OR he could halt all talks of extension for ANOTHER year and should he repeat he will be looking at 3 times the money. The Brewers need to really consider extending Segura right now, and I bet they are, and rightfully so.

 

Segura makes way more contact than bill hall and they aren't alike. Bill hall was proned to have hitting slumps because of his swing and hitting style. Seguras hitting style (contact) and patience at the plate tells me that he's going to hit and be productive regardless. Plus, we are only talking 15-20 million guaranteed. Even if he turns out to be like a tony gwynn, the Brewers can eat the last year of his salary if need be easily, and it's not a big deal.

 

Alcedes Escobar who is comparable to Segura just signed a deal like that for "less" money guaranteed than what I was proposing. Security prior to hitting arbitration is very attractive to these players, and there are millions of reasons for them to sign.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

I don't think the extension is a terrible idea, but I think there's less risk to waiting than some believe.

 

After this year, Segura has two more years under team control at league minimum. With any offer buying out those two years and arby seasons, I have a little bit of a hard time believing he'd let it ride on two whole seasons and hope to hit it huge.

 

He might, sure. But I don't think it's incredibly likely. There's a risk with everything. I think the goal should always be minimizing risk. I think the best chance for that is to wait at least until late this year and probably push any offer into the offseason.

[adambr2]

Adam,

 

Should Segura break out this year and the Brewers just sit by and wait on an extension Seguras price will increase quite a bit OR he could halt all talks of extension for ANOTHER year and should he repeat he will be looking at 3 times the money. The Brewers need to really consider extending Segura right now, and I bet they are, and rightfully so.

 

Segura makes way more contact than bill hall and they aren't alike. Bill hall was proned to have hitting slumps because of his swing and hitting style. Seguras hitting style (contact) and patience at the plate tells me that he's going to hit and be productive regardless. Plus, we are only talking 15-20 million guaranteed. Even if he turns out to be like a tony gwynn, the Brewers can eat the last year of his salary if need be easily, and it's not a big deal.

 

Alcedes Escobar who is comparable to Segura just signed a deal like that for "less" money guaranteed than what I was proposing. Security prior to hitting arbitration is very attractive to these players, and there are millions of reasons for them to sign.

 

First off, if security is as important to these pre-arby guys as you say, Segura isn't going to just blow off extension talks if he breaks out this year.

 

Even if he does, he STILL can't go anywhere for 5 years. And even if security is important to these guys, why does that mean he's going to just sign a contract which gives us 3 team option years in his first 3 years of free agency? Has any MLB player ever done that?

 

Yes he makes more contact, he does this, he does that, etc. etc. Segura is NOT the first, and again, I love Segura. People said these same things about Casey McGehee.

 

Yes, Alcides Escobar just signed an extension with the Royals. They also waited for him to show 3+ years of MLB time. You are proposing an even bigger contract after 3+ weeks. Using the logic you presented shouldn't Alcides have been demanding much more than what he got since they waited so long?

[brewcrewdue80]

AdamBR:

 

The security is the money is guaranteed. The Brewers could send him down let him make minimum money until his options ran up let him play then for a lower amount due to not playing all the while risk being hurt and never getting to see those Arby paid or FA years.

 

I think you're thinking security in knowing you will be playing for the same team. ? Maybe I dunno.

Escobar fwiw, showed no offensive abilities at the plate. Meanwhile Segura is. The security for the player will be in the tunes of where rather than 550k/600k the next two seasons, Segura would likely get say 700k then 1mil plus an in line 3mil 1st year arb. And the team probably paying him in the 4-6mil range the following 2 seasons. Segura would be locking up 1.7mil these next 2seasons vs sitting around at 1.1mil. The Arby years are based on performance and any injury within these first 3years can dictate that by a bit. This is why I'm a proponent to waiting this out at minimum this season if not til mid to through next season. On Segura's side he's making more early and locking up probably a mid-range number for Arb years w/o having to perform or lose out to injury to get that money.

 

From the Player's side, I think when a team offers a Pre-Arb til in to a FA year/s deal there has to be a pretty quick reaction to sign it. Where everyone saying don't wait it's because one he may see his value increase. Or two be less inclined to sign a good deal when he's closer to making bigger money. 500k earned accumulated is one thing. at 1.1mil earned, maybe he's comfortable waiting, that, that amount earned he's confident to sit around for a bigger money. After his 3rd year 1.7mil earned there's less reason to sign say a 6-7year deal at that date for 40-50mil when after two years he may earn 8+mil and FA of 15mil or more where in 5years he's made the 40mil and 6/7 are another 30mil or more.

 

For me, I don't know how much money one really needs. I can't imagine how one cannot live a long fruitful life at just 1mil year over the next 6-9years time. Segura is looking for millions more than just 1mil/yr over 6-9years. If Segura feels like I do an 8year for 40mil-50mil contract offer today he'd be signing it grinning ear to ear. That's security.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Adam,

 

You are looking at this the complete wrong way and it's because we differ on what Segura will likely do over the next 2 seasons. It wouldn't shock me at all if Segura matches what Starlin Castro did over his first 2 years of service time, but steals more bases and at a better %, and gets 49 million guaranteed should the Brewers wait and let this happen. It all rides on how well you think Segura will do over that time period.

 

Take your pick,

 

49 million guaranteed (Castro deal)

 

OR

 

4-5 years at 10.5 million (probably 5-10 million more) with option years, with a extremely low buyout.

 

You see what can happen when you wait a little bit? If the Brewers are confident in what they have with Segura they should and will re-sign him very soon. I wont fault them one bit, and if he doesn't live up to expectations, well the Brewers are paying him the most money in his final guaranteed year and can afford to suck it up, because it's still affordable and not back breaking by any means.

 

I don't see any risk in trying to sign Segura to a deal like this right now financially. Regardless of what happens it's affordable. The difference is that Segura sees more money sooner and doesn't have to wait and risk in losing money because of an injury or whatever.

 

If I was Segura and I knew that I just put up the stats that I think he's going to put up this season I would wait another year considering how much additional money I could get. However, you show me the money before I know what I'm truly capable of in a season, I will take the money.

[adambr2]

Adam,

 

You are looking at this the complete wrong way and it's because we differ on what Segura will likely do over the next 2 seasons. It wouldn't shock me at all if Segura matches what Starlin Castro did over his first 2 years of service time, but steals more bases and at a better %, and gets 49 million guaranteed should the Brewers wait and let this happen. It all rides on how well you think Segura will do over that time period.

 

Take your pick,

 

49 million guaranteed (Castro deal)

 

OR

 

4-5 years at 10.5 million (probably 5-10 million more) with option years, with a extremely low buyout.

 

You see what can happen when you wait a little bit? If the Brewers are confident in what they have with Segura they should and will re-sign him very soon. I wont fault them one bit, and if he doesn't live up to expectations, well the Brewers are paying him the most money in his final guaranteed year and can afford to suck it up, because it's still affordable and not back breaking by any means.

 

I don't see any risk in trying to sign Segura to a deal like this right now financially. Regardless of what happens it's affordable. The difference is that Segura sees more money sooner and doesn't have to wait and risk in losing money because of an injury or whatever.

 

If I was Segura and I knew that I just put up the stats that I think he's going to put up this season I would wait another year considering how much additional money I could get. However, you show me the money before I know what I'm truly capable of in a season, I will take the money.

 

Why am I looking at this the completely wrong way? Because I don't share your viewpoint? Because I don't agree that the potential small savings of extending him versus later this year or next year now is worth the risk that he's performing at an unsustainable level?

 

Can you give me one similar precedent of a player receiving an 8 or 9 year contract this early in his career?

[PrinceFielderx1]

Adam,

 

You are looking at this the complete wrong way and it's because we differ on what Segura will likely do over the next 2 seasons. It wouldn't shock me at all if Segura matches what Starlin Castro did over his first 2 years of service time, but steals more bases and at a better %, and gets 49 million guaranteed should the Brewers wait and let this happen. It all rides on how well you think Segura will do over that time period.

 

Take your pick,

 

49 million guaranteed (Castro deal)

 

OR

 

4-5 years at 10.5 million (probably 5-10 million more) with option years, with a extremely low buyout.

 

You see what can happen when you wait a little bit? If the Brewers are confident in what they have with Segura they should and will re-sign him very soon. I wont fault them one bit, and if he doesn't live up to expectations, well the Brewers are paying him the most money in his final guaranteed year and can afford to suck it up, because it's still affordable and not back breaking by any means.

 

I don't see any risk in trying to sign Segura to a deal like this right now financially. Regardless of what happens it's affordable. The difference is that Segura sees more money sooner and doesn't have to wait and risk in losing money because of an injury or whatever.

 

If I was Segura and I knew that I just put up the stats that I think he's going to put up this season I would wait another year considering how much additional money I could get. However, you show me the money before I know what I'm truly capable of in a season, I will take the money.

 

Why am I looking at this the completely wrong way? Because I don't share your viewpoint? Because I don't agree that the potential small savings of extending him versus later this year or next year now is worth the risk that he's performing at an unsustainable level?

 

Can you give me one similar precedent of a player receiving an 8 or 9 year contract this early in his career?

 

Yes, you obviously don't share my view point about what to expect from Segura the next 2 years. I have stated that already. It's not all about savings Adam. It's also about control and savings beyond the 5 years prior to FA.

 

The Brewers and other teams who have a good young SS must be looking at that Alcedes Escobar deal and say to themselves man that's a no risk deal that I should explore; especially the Brewers; especially this early in pre arby.

[brewcrewdue80]

 

Can you give me one similar precedent of a player receiving an 8 or 9 year contract this early in his career?

 

You're right in this regard, I don't know who has been given that type of contract so fast. Which is in lines of why I'm for waiting through this year.

 

Castro's Contract kinda like Braun's is becoming more the norm. So, while looking at a lack of precedence I don't think it will be long before it's done. I had no idea Posey's 8year contract was for so much money after esentially 2+years playing time. It's money like that being thrown around that these ideas of Securing Segura now seem prudent. Another offseason or two and all the 20mil+/yr contracts that are out there, who knows? Maybe then for trying to buy out Arb and some FA years may just cost 13-18mil a year. It's a scary landscape for small markets as I fear all this tv money will make fielding a team under 100mil next to impossible when market values for Near AS level players are so high 15+mil a year. on through to 22mil. I get the side that wants this deal done now before it's too late.

 

I am on your side though in barring a top 10 MVP finish type of season from Segura, I just don't see the market for him changing a lot now til the end of next offseason.

[adambr2]

Adam,

 

You are looking at this the complete wrong way and it's because we differ on what Segura will likely do over the next 2 seasons. It wouldn't shock me at all if Segura matches what Starlin Castro did over his first 2 years of service time, but steals more bases and at a better %, and gets 49 million guaranteed should the Brewers wait and let this happen. It all rides on how well you think Segura will do over that time period.

 

Take your pick,

 

49 million guaranteed (Castro deal)

 

OR

 

4-5 years at 10.5 million (probably 5-10 million more) with option years, with a extremely low buyout.

 

You see what can happen when you wait a little bit? If the Brewers are confident in what they have with Segura they should and will re-sign him very soon. I wont fault them one bit, and if he doesn't live up to expectations, well the Brewers are paying him the most money in his final guaranteed year and can afford to suck it up, because it's still affordable and not back breaking by any means.

 

I don't see any risk in trying to sign Segura to a deal like this right now financially. Regardless of what happens it's affordable. The difference is that Segura sees more money sooner and doesn't have to wait and risk in losing money because of an injury or whatever.

 

If I was Segura and I knew that I just put up the stats that I think he's going to put up this season I would wait another year considering how much additional money I could get. However, you show me the money before I know what I'm truly capable of in a season, I will take the money.

 

Why am I looking at this the completely wrong way? Because I don't share your viewpoint? Because I don't agree that the potential small savings of extending him versus later this year or next year now is worth the risk that he's performing at an unsustainable level?

 

Can you give me one similar precedent of a player receiving an 8 or 9 year contract this early in his career?

 

Yes, you obviously don't share my view point about what to expect from Segura the next 2 years. I have stated that already. It's not all about savings Adam. It's also about control and savings beyond the 5 years prior to FA.

 

The Brewers and other teams who have a good young SS must be looking at that Alcedes Escobar deal and say to themselves man that's a no risk deal that I should explore; especially the Brewers; especially this early in pre arby.

 

I also have high expectations for Segura. Again, can you give me one similar example of a multi-year deal this early in a player's career before more evaluation takes place?

[Daubs]

If the Brewers didn't extend Braun until a few months into his second year, does anyone think they'd try to negotiate with Segura sooner? This just isn't something that's routine by any stretch and I don't believe Segura is at the same level as Braun.

 

Even the Angels haven't extended Trout yet - and his ROY season was about as good than Braun's.

[Fear The Chorizo]

PFx1,

 

Waiting another full season to evaluate Segura before approaching him on a contract extension isn't going to drive Segura's price into the stratosphere and it definitely wouldn't drive him & his agent (if he even has one) from the negotiating table. We're not talking about a player about to enter arby here - he's got a few seasons before he's even arby eligible. The security of a contract extension will feel no different for Segura 1-2 seasons from now compared to if the Brewers were to foolishly extend him now. Buying out that many arby years just to buy one free agent season, IMO, is very risky unless we're talking about MVP-caliber players (Longoria, Braun, Trout, Harper, etc.).

 

If Segura sustains himself as a 0.370 hitter with brilliant defense and steals 75 bases a year, I'll eat my words. I think his ability is somewhere between what he did last season and the start of this year - that definitely means he's a solid MLB player, but not one that would warrant a contract extension this early in his career so the team could avoid crazy-high arbitration salaries a few seasons from now.

[PrinceFielderx1]

PFx1,

 

Waiting another full season to evaluate Segura before approaching him on a contract extension isn't going to drive Segura's price into the stratosphere and it definitely wouldn't drive him & his agent (if he even has one) from the negotiating table. We're not talking about a player about to enter arby here - he's got a few seasons before he's even arby eligible. The security of a contract extension will feel no different for Segura 1-2 seasons from now compared to if the Brewers were to foolishly extend him now. Buying out that many arby years just to buy one free agent season, IMO, is very risky unless we're talking about MVP-caliber players (Longoria, Braun, Trout, Harper, etc.).

 

If Segura sustains himself as a 0.370 hitter with brilliant defense and steals 75 bases a year, I'll eat my words. I think his ability is somewhere between what he did last season and the start of this year - that definitely means he's a solid MLB player, but not one that would warrant a contract extension this early in his career so the team could avoid crazy-high arbitration salaries a few seasons from now.

 

I hear what you are saying and if they decide to wait till the end of this season it could increase his asking price a million or two a year, but not by an enormous amount. However, I see no risk financially in extending him right now even if Segura comes back to earth, because the salary is going to be cheap, and the FA years are not guaranteed, but rather options with super cheap buyouts. Looking at that Escobar extension it could have actually been done a couple years prior and there would have been no risk involved.

 

Long story short, this deal doesn't need to wait a year and can be done right now, or they can wait till after this season. Either way it doesn't really matter.

[TooLiveBrew]

Again, can you give me one similar example of a multi-year deal this early in a player's career before more evaluation takes place?

Since PFx1 hasn't even bothered to address this, I think you can assume that answer is "no"

[PrinceFielderx1]

Again, can you give me one similar example of a multi-year deal this early in a player's career before more evaluation takes place?

Since PFx1 hasn't even bothered to address this, I think you can assume that answer is "no"

 

The obvious answer was no, as I believe someone else pointed that out, which is why I didn't address this. I also don't believe this matters as much, because the comparable SS to Segura (alcedes Escobar), signed a deal that is dirt cheap, and that has really no risk, so one can suggest, what's the harm in getting it done sooner rather than waiting for Segura to show he can sustain these numbers and rack up the production and additional money? My point is there is no risk. I also wouldn't at all rule it out.

[Eye Black]

Again, can you give me one similar example of a multi-year deal this early in a player's career before more evaluation takes place?

 

Salvador Perez signed an extension with the Royals last year when he had accumulated 0.050 service time, which is less than Segura has now. It was a five year contract with three additional club option years. I am not in favor of the Brewers exploring an extension with Segura until after this season, but at this point a buyout of his arbitration eligible years with some additional club option years would not be completely unprecedented.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Again, can you give me one similar example of a multi-year deal this early in a player's career before more evaluation takes place?

 

Salvador Perez signed an extension with the Royals last year when he had accumulated 0.050 service time, which is less than Segura has now. It was a five year contract with three additional club option years. I am not in favor of the Brewers exploring an extension with Segura until after this season, but at this point a buyout of his arbitration eligible years with some additional club option years would not be completely unprecedented.

 

Wow I didn't know that. Thanks for the reference.