Behold the Talents of Jean Segura

[Eye Black]

For Jean Segura (and Brewers fans) the future seems promising. I find myself mesmerized by all the ways Jean Segura adds value throughout a baseball game. Recently I have been trying to look past my man-crush on Segura to determine what the realistic expectations should be relative to his overall skill set. I realize it's best to temper excitement at this point given he is so early on in his career, but I still find myself struck with visions of Segura as a perennial All-Star and a key contributor to both the top of the lineup and middle of the order for years to come. I am trying to remain as objective as possible when evaluating Segura, but this is admittedly a difficult task given my escalating affection for watching him play baseball everyday.

 

Before discussing some of his specific talents, it is worth reviewing just how remarkable the start to his 2013 season has been. Segura has played 17 games this season (prior to Tuesday's game) and Baseball-Reference has him valued at a 1.2 WAR already. One more time, a 1.2 WAR through 17 freaking games! Considering preseason projections had him in the 1.7-2.9 WAR range for the entire season, it certainly looks as though he is going to far exceed expectations. The law of averages say he will regress as this season proceeds (a .400 BABIP isn't likely sustainable), but even a notch below his current production levels (.406 OBP and .484 SLG) make an impressive offensive player.

 

I am curious to hear others would assess his abilities and tool. He does many things well, but I took a stab at this exercise from the standpoint summarizing my own unqualified evaluation while ranking each of his tools. I tried to remain objective, but it is certainly open for plenty of debate.

 

#5: Power - Thus far Segura's power has been on display more in the form of gap doubles then the homerun ball. I know some are predicting more power as he ages, which seems reasonable, but I have a hard time picturing him as a guy who will ever hit much beyond 10-15 HRs in a season. Eclipsing 35 doubles in future seasons seems more likely. He obviously has decent power for his size, but relative the his other athletic skills, power will probably remain the least valuable part of his game.

 

#4: Fielding - This was my biggest concern regarding Segura given many didn't project him to posses the fielding ability to stick at SS long-term. So far he has shown an aptitude to field at the SS position beyond anything I envisioned. He seems very comfortable at SS and has shown extremely quick reaction time and solid range this year. He made a tremendous backhanded stab going to his right in tonights 8th inning. He has only made one error so far this season. Being young probably benefits him in terms of fielding agility and I have to believe he is going to stay a SS for the majority if his career. If he does ultimately move positions he could be a stellar 2B, even a potential gold glove defender.

 

#3: Arm - I ranked Arm strength/accuracy as his 3rd best tool probably more as a flaw of my ability to accurately evaluate arm strength then anything else. He has thrown the ball very well this season, but I have a tough time ranking it above some of his other attributes at this point. He does seem to throw (or whip) the ball across the diamond with a maximum amount of effort much of the time compared to other SS who appear to throw with more fluid ease. The end result however is he throws the ball very hard and accurate, which seems like a pretty good combination. I assume his arm strength is somewhere between average to above average overall, but would appreciate others feedback.

 

#2: Speed - Between racking up infield singles and stealing bases (including first) it is apparent Segura has above average speed. As is well documented, speed certainly depreciates over time, but he has a number of year before he is likely to significantly drop-off in that department. He doesn't have speed the caliber of a Billy Hamilton obviously, but unlike Hamilton who seems like somewhat of a one trick pony, Segura's above average speed helps complement the other strengths of his game.

 

#1: Hit - Segura's hit tool seems extremely advanced for a 23 year old who never played a game at AAA. He has a knack for making contact, and even when down in the count I have confidence he will put something in play. It seems Segura could eventually display a 70 grade hit tool on the 80 scouting scale. I believe strongly that his ability to make good contact and hit line drives, but also beat out balls well placed in the infield give him a chance to be an elite overall hitter.

 

Intangibles - This is probably cliche, but Segura displays so much of whatever "it" is. He seems like the kind of baseball player I would picture myself to be if given an ungodly amount of physical talent. By this I mean he doesn't rely on talent alone (see Starlin Casto) but seems to couple it with great amounts of effort, hustle, and desire. I think Jason Parks and Kevin Goldstein would summarize it as "want". Regardless of what "it" is, it certainly makes me warm and fuzzy about the game of baseball every time I watch him play and I can't wait for more!

[DHonks]

gotta agree. I would immediately offer an 8 year $45 million deal with incentives. If he goes year to year, we're going to be sorry in 4 years!

 

I worry about him at SS getting clobbered. Doesn't it seem like guys are sliding at him particularly late and aggressively?

[PrinceFielderx1]

gotta agree. I would immediately offer an 8 year $45 million deal with incentives. If he goes year to year, we're going to be sorry in 4 years!

 

I worry about him at SS getting clobbered. Doesn't it seem like guys are sliding at him particularly late and aggressively?

 

This is being talked about in the transaction/rumors and proposals thread. See my proposal for 39.5 million over 9 years should he be extended before the end of this season. It's a proposal based off of a combination of the Escobar/Hardy and Castro contracts.

[TooLiveBrew]

Good summary, Eye Black. The only thing I'm not sure about with Segura just yet is the hit tool, but only in how I'd stack it up with his other tools (because I think he's the real deal at the plate). Imo it's always a bit dangerous to try to evaluate the hit tool when a guy is as hot at the plate as Segura has been so far this season. That said, I think the nitpick I'd make on your nicely-done rankings is that I'd have them as something like 1a-d or 1a-b/2a-b. Hit/speed/arm/fielding for me are all pretty dang good-looking tools. The only one that doesn't really stand out (& maybe only "yet") is power; for the SS position, however, he has plenty. I have a hard time trying to decide how I'd rank those other four tools, because his hit tool could very well be his strongest.

 

I hear you on the max-effort comment on his arm, but there aren't many better in the league at SS -- his combination of raw power & accuracy impresses in every game, as does his defense as a whole. The questions about his defense (yes, there were experts who questioned his ability right now, not just how long he'll stick at SS) at this point look completely foolish. For as good as his offense has been so far, his defense has been the aspect of his game I've most enjoyed so far.

[Invader3K]

Yeah, it's amazing to think that last summer people were saying, "He might have to be moved for shortstop eventually." Can't really see him regressing defensively any time soon.

 

I thought the talk of a long term contract was a bit premature when that thread was started, but now I'm all on board. I think the Brewers have another potential All-Star on their hands.

[Eye Black]

I agree TLB, I think ranking his hit tool was the most difficult to do objectively, especially given the rate at which he is getting on base currently. My ranking of his hit tool probably reflects the one area where I interjected more of what I want him to become than what he actually is currently.

 

After last night's game Baseball Reference now has Segura at a 1.4 WAR through 18 games. At that rate (granted it is unsustainable) he would post a 12 WAR season over a 160 games. He won't maintain that rate, but if he is a 5-6 win player this season that would be pretty incredible.

[pogokat]

my favorite thing so far is that i was disappointed we didn't get profar...

 

man, right now I'm stoked we didn't get him!

[rluzinski]

His defense has been nothing but phenomenal and I am more confident in it not being a result of small sample luck for sure. His offense? Looks to project to be very good for a SS. Something like .300/.330/.420 right now, with room to grow of course (he's only 23).

 

Very exciting start for sure but any talk of him perennial all-star is REALLY premature, IMO.

 

gotta agree. I would immediately offer an 8 year $45 million deal with incentives.

 

In other words, buy out 5 of his 6 prearby years, plus 3 more?

[Ennder]

I think you wait until next year to worry about an extension. Wait and make sure he holds up in a full season etc. I don't doubt the talent but it is probably jumping the gun to offer a long term extension to any player in their 1st full season.

[jjfanec]

my favorite thing so far is that i was disappointed we didn't get profar...

 

man, right now I'm stoked we didn't get him!

 

The crazy thing is we would have had to give up more to get Profar. We ended up getting Segura and Hellweg. Pena could be a bullpen guy as well. I think Hellweg has potential to be a solid starter if he can cut down the walks but at worst he should be a power arm in the bullpen.

[RobDeer 45]

Ya I think we wait this season out. The guy is playing awesome right now! We need to see more, just to better gauge what we have, but man, he's a gamer.

[TURBO]

The better he plays, the longer he plays that way, the more the price will go up.

 

I am on board to get him now, assume the risk, and lock him down...

[zzzmanwitz]

I bet the Angels miss him right now. Their SS position is currently putting up this slash line.

 

.246/.260/.333/.594

[Fear The Chorizo]

What's Mike Trout's 2013 salary? 450K? He put up one of the best regular seasons statistically in the last 100 years, and he didn't get a contract extension.

 

Segura's off to a great start, but I need to see a full season of production out of him before shelling out a longterm contract to guy under team control for more than the next handful of seasons. Don't get me wrong, I'm as excited as anyone regarding Segura - why not let things play out a bit more before committing?

[zzzmanwitz]

A better comparison would be Braun since it would be comparing how the same organization deals with young talent. How long did I take the Brewers to lock up Braun for a few seasons? I could look it up, but I'm sure someone here knows it.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Locking up Segura right now will only commit the Brewers to no more than 15-20 million guaranteed over the next 6 years including a FA year. That's how cheaply they can get him extended right now, but should they wait till after he has a steller year this year, you can bet on his asking price to increase and he might just decide to wait. Get him right now before he knows what he's able to do and it's all about finding security. Guaranteed money.

 

It's literally a no-brainer.

[danzig6767]

I think you wait until next year to worry about an extension. Wait and make sure he holds up in a full season etc. I don't doubt the talent but it is probably jumping the gun to offer a long term extension to any player in their 1st full season.

 

I agree with you, plenty of time to offer Segura a long term deal after the season if he's receptive to the idea.

 

As others have pointed out, his fabulous defense has been the most pleasant thing to see given how some scouts questioned whether he could hack it long term at shortstop. I expected him to eventually hit at least decently for a shortstop, but certainly not to this degree so soon. Mix in his speed and Carlos Gomez like all out hustle on every play, hard not to get super excited about Melvin landing a talent like this at a position we had nothing really promising at in the minors.

[adambr2]

Even Braun had basically a full season of time before he was offered an extension.

 

This is exciting what Segura is doing, but let's spend more than 69 AB's evaluating him. It's not like he's going to be a free agent anytime soon.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Even Braun had basically a full season of time before he was offered an extension.

 

This is exciting what Segura is doing, but let's spend more than 69 AB's evaluating him. It's not like he's going to be a free agent anytime soon.

 

I think you mean "220" AB's. I've seen enough.

[adambr2]

Even Braun had basically a full season of time before he was offered an extension.

 

This is exciting what Segura is doing, but let's spend more than 69 AB's evaluating him. It's not like he's going to be a free agent anytime soon.

 

I think you mean "220" AB's. I've seen enough.

 

We're not talking about paying him big money for the .650 OPS last year. We're paying him for the 69 ABs this year.

 

To which the answer is why? What possible advantage do we gain over doing this now rather than getting a year to evaluate him first, other than saving a few million long-term?

[Daubs]

Even Braun had basically a full season of time before he was offered an extension.

 

This is exciting what Segura is doing, but let's spend more than 69 AB's evaluating him. It's not like he's going to be a free agent anytime soon.

 

I think you mean "220" AB's. I've seen enough.

 

Ugh...not this again. I thought you would have learned by now.....

[Daubs]

 

To which the answer is why? What possible advantage do we gain over doing this now rather than getting a year to evaluate him first, other than saving a few million long-term?

 

Imagine if he had been in charge when Listach won ROY.....

[PrinceFielderx1]

Even Braun had basically a full season of time before he was offered an extension.

 

This is exciting what Segura is doing, but let's spend more than 69 AB's evaluating him. It's not like he's going to be a free agent anytime soon.

 

I think you mean "220" AB's. I've seen enough.

 

We're not talking about paying him big money for the .650 OPS last year. We're paying him for the 69 ABs this year.

 

To which the answer is why? What possible advantage do we gain over doing this now rather than getting a year to evaluate him first, other than saving a few million long-term?

 

You said it we will save money and control a plus SS defender who has shown good plate discipline, contact, ability to hit the baseball, and beat out throws with his plus speed. SS like this don't come around that often, so let's lock him up for 8-9 years and not have to worry about SS for a long time. Sounds good to me.

 

I can guarantee you that if we wait till after this season, he will either A.) Be more expensive and require more guaranteed money or B.) decide to wait another year and put a halt to contract talks and then ask for eve more money likely around 55-60 million compared to only 15-20 million guaranteed for 6 years with club options for the final 3 years of an 9 year deal. How about we don't let either happen?

 

Waiting costs money. There's some players where you just know they are special and Segura is one of them.

[Daubs]

 

Waiting costs money. There's some players where you just know they are special and Segura is one of them.

 

Kind of like Mark Rogers being a future Ace?

[BuckyBrewer61]

I am craving a navy blue "Milwaukee" Segura jersey...anyone know where I can get one? Can't seem to find one online.