2013-04-23 Brewers (Gallardo) at Padres (Richard), 9:10 PM CDT [Brewers win, 6-3]

[AZBrewCrew]

I love Gomez's speed and aggressiveness on the basepaths (most of the time)

[The stache]

GoGo vroom vroom.

[chickinbrickin]

Baseball is a funny game. Not many other sports where a team can go from doing nothing right to nothing wrong in a week.

[rluzinski]

So the key factor is the difference in wOBA or OPS between the players, clearly going from a regular to a pitcher is enough to justify it, so what is the break even point? Because Braun > Lucroy actually represents a pretty big difference.

 

Braun has a .995 OPS over the past 3 seasons, Lucroy is a career .737, 258 point difference, which is not that much different than say Gomez vs an average hitting pitcher

 

To be fair, up by 1 early, it isn't as bad a move. I believe that it increases the odds of 1 run but may lower the overall run expectancy for the inning, depending on the batters in question. There was a "Intentiionally Walk Bonds" study done by tangotiger many years ago:

 

http://www.tangotiger.net/walkbonds.html

 

It looks like his assumptions have been lost, however. Have to the imagine the difference between the two batters is larger with Bonds then Braun, though.

[azcheesehead]

People with a media guide: When was the last 9 game winning streak by a Brewer team?

[azcheesehead]

"I'd rather punch you in the fa-aaace!"

[hawing]

People with a media guide: When was the last 9 game winning streak by a Brewer team?

There was a 10-gamer in 2003.

[azcheesehead]

Segura even looks awesome when he boots the ball!

[The stache]

chicknbrickn, if I remember correctly, they said last night the Brewers are the first team in MLB history to start 2-8, and then get back over .500 at 9-8. Pretty dramatic turn around.

[PrinceFielderx1]

God is Segura good. DM extend him now!

[topper09er]

So the key factor is the difference in wOBA or OPS between the players, clearly going from a regular to a pitcher is enough to justify it, so what is the break even point? Because Braun > Lucroy actually represents a pretty big difference.

 

Braun has a .995 OPS over the past 3 seasons, Lucroy is a career .737, 258 point difference, which is not that much different than say Gomez vs an average hitting pitcher

 

To be fair, up by 1 early, it isn't as bad a move. I believe that it increases the odds of 1 run but may lower the overall run expectancy for the inning, depending on the batters in question. There was a "Intentiionally Walk Bonds" study done by tangotiger many years ago:

 

http://www.tangotiger.net/walkbonds.html

 

It looks like his assumptions have been lost, however. Have to the imagine the difference between the two batters is larger with Bonds then Braun, though.

 

"There are a few assumptions I've made to make life easier for myself, and that is I assume "average conditions" and "average approach" and "average everything else"

 

Lucroy OPS+ = 97 = average hitter, however from the Padre perspective even though it is early you have to feel a Braun GS making it 8-2 with your offense is as good as a loss so you might be more inclined to take the higher risk/higher reward choice.

 

Of course Bud Black did not consider any of this and just IBB'd Braun because that is what you do with first base open and an MVP up.

[The stache]

Much better inning, Yovani.

[FVBrewerFan]

A Braun HR would have been a 3 run shot, but yea...

[RobDeer 45]

Yo is missing as many bats as he misses cops on 94. Too soon?

[AZBrewCrew]

Yo is missing as many bats as he misses cops on 94. Too soon?

 

"Ba Dum Ching!!"

[adambr2]

BS: "You don't see Aoki swing at pitches out of the strike zone very often."

 

Nor was that pitch...

[azcheesehead]

AZ, just out of curiosity, whereabouts do you live in Phx?

[FVBrewerFan]

I'm more impressed by Segura's plate discipline than anything else. For a young player, he really has am outstandin grasp of the strike zone.

[rluzinski]

Lucroy OPS+ = 97 = average hitter, however from the Padre perspective even though it is early you have to feel a Braun GS making it 8-2 with your offense is as good as a loss so you might be more inclined to take the higher risk/higher reward choice.

 

Braun hits a HR in about 5% of his PA, so it's those kind of considerations that make "The Book" decisions too risk averse.

 

Again, I am not suggesting I know exactly where that break even point is (would need to simulate it to have a better feel). I just know that walking the bases loaded has all kinds of problems associated with it.

[adambr2]

I'm not sure Gallardo makes it through 5 tonight. He doesn't have it at all. He can't find the strike zone, and when he does it's getting smoked.

[AZBrewCrew]

AZ, just out of curiosity, whereabouts do you live in Phx?

 

North Phoenix up by Deer Valley Airport

[AZBrewCrew]

I'm not sure Gallardo makes it through 5 tonight. He doesn't have it at all. He can't find the strike zone, and when he does it's getting smoked.

 

Which is too bad because for once his pitch count is in relatively decent shape.

[The stache]

Come on Yovani, pull your head out of your nether regions.

[adambr2]

I'm not sure Gallardo makes it through 5 tonight. He doesn't have it at all. He can't find the strike zone, and when he does it's getting smoked.

 

Which is too bad because for once his pitch count is in relatively decent shape.

 

And the pen already had a long night last night.

[topper09er]

Brooks Betancourt