How much longer should Rickie be given at the 4th spot?

[Noche]

What the hell happened to all the posters who actually looked at more than small samples. This board has definitely take n a turn for the worse. So man knee jerk reactions.

 

It is beyond maddening. Pretty much started with FatterThanJoey and Brian leaving. They used to hold everyone accountable. Next you lose Pogo, Sessile, AndThat, Patrick, Russ and Sam and you just get a smorgasbord of nonsense, hindsight GM's, and kneejerkers.

 

I think the best (and there are some really smart ones) of who's left are just tired of having to explain the same basic concepts over and over again.

 

I searched past Rickie Weeks threads. There are multiple made every year going back to 2006. Most are negative of course. The ones that start positive, often are infiltrated by posters who hate strike outs. Seriously, why must Rickie be defended multiple times every single year? Do people not realize the state of MLB second baseman? Even at his very worst, there are not 15 second baseman I would trade him for. At his best, he is an all-star. Get over it already.

[lcbj68c]

Experiment with Weeks out of the 4 hole - 1AB, 1 K (at a ball in the dirt no less). FAIL

[joepepsi]

Experiment with Weeks out of the 4 hole - 1AB, 1 K (at a ball in the dirt no less. FAIL

Well then it's settled. Cut Rickie. Yuni should play 2B, Gonzalez 3B, Lalli at 1B. NL pennant here we come!!!!!!

[Outlander]

Weeks would be on the first team all time Brewers lineup but some people here need a dose of reality. He is not the player he once was and likely will never be.

[brettac1]

Even if that is the case, putting him on the short side of a platoon with Scooter Gennett (!!!!) is not the answer.

[Roderick]

I'm sure it is my imagination, but it seems when he has struggled and been given a day or two off, he comes back pretty strong. I assume Josh Prince could play 2B or a C to 1B and Betancourt to 2B for a day or two.

[brwrsfan]

Can you guys please explain to me why this is so much knee jerk reactions?? And not the fact that maybe Rickie Weeks simply isn't a very good player anymore? Just becuase you like Weeks and want to defend him, doesn't mean that the rest of us are "ruining the board with kneejerk reactions".

 

He was awful for 3 months last year, everyone talks about how he came around, but he still only hit like .265 the second half of the season. Now this year, back under .200 with tons of K's.

 

At some point it stops being about "only 50 at bats" and starts becoming reality. I don't understand how so many people defend Weeks, on what merit? He hasn't been good in 2 seasons. Sure, maybe he was hurt last season, I'll buy that, but this season looks pretty much IDENTICAL to last, yet there is no injury to blame.

 

And as most people have said, I'm not asking for a straight benching of him (though he needs a day off pretty clearly IMO), but to continue to have him struggle near the top of the order just seems unbelievably silly right now.

[fondybrewfan]

Ramirez just needs to get back so we don't need to argue about this anymore. I would hope Weeks gets bumped down to 6/7 once Aram comes back; that is where he belongs. But as of right now RR doesn't have a whole lot of good options there. Lucroy maybe but I like exactly where Gomez is right now.

[Noche]

Can you guys please explain to me why this is so much knee jerk reactions?? And not the fact that maybe Rickie Weeks simply isn't a very good player anymore? Just becuase you like Weeks and want to defend him, doesn't mean that the rest of us are "ruining the board with kneejerk reactions".

 

He was awful for 3 months last year, everyone talks about how he came around, but he still only hit like .265 the second half of the season. Now this year, back under .200 with tons of K's.

 

At some point it stops being about "only 50 at bats" and starts becoming reality. I don't understand how so many people defend Weeks, on what merit? He hasn't been good in 2 seasons. Sure, maybe he was hurt last season, I'll buy that, but this season looks pretty much IDENTICAL to last, yet there is no injury to blame.

 

And as most people have said, I'm not asking for a straight benching of him (though he needs a day off pretty clearly IMO), but to continue to have him struggle near the top of the order just seems unbelievably silly right now.

 

Try this; go back and read the Rickie Weeks thread from 2012. Nearly all of the pro-Weeks arguments still hold true. Next, take a look at Rickie's career stats. Then, familiarize yourself with sample size relevance in statistics. Lastly, take a close look at second baseman (and middle IF'ers in general) across the league.

 

If his value does not become blatantly obvious, then you might be a kneejerker.

[pogokat]

What the hell happened to all the posters who actually looked at more than small samples. This board has definitely take n a turn for the worse. So man knee jerk reactions.

 

It is beyond maddening. Pretty much started with FatterThanJoey and Brian leaving. They used to hold everyone accountable. Next you lose Pogo, Sessile, AndThat, Patrick, Russ and Sam and you just get a smorgasbord of nonsense, hindsight GM's, and kneejerkers.

 

I think the best (and there are some really smart ones) of who's left are just tired of having to explain the same basic concepts over and over again.

 

I searched past Rickie Weeks threads. There are multiple made every year going back to 2006. Most are negative of course. The ones that start positive, often are infiltrated by posters who hate strike outs. Seriously, why must Rickie be defended multiple times every single year? Do people not realize the state of MLB second baseman? Even at his very worst, there are not 15 second baseman I would trade him for. At his best, he is an all-star. Get over it already.

 

still here...

 

although, rickie's astronomical k rate right now makes me want to pull my hair out

[Warning Track Power]

I've been the biggest Rickie defender over the years but even I am starting to get discouraged by his performance to start the year. If he were lacing liners that were outs or making somewhat solid contact consistently I would not be worrying, but the strikeouts and lack of solid contact sure are alarming.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Strikeouts aren't that bad, unless they are the result of nearly 1/2 of your plate appearances and the other 1/2 of the appearances contain little/no solid contact.

 

Whether Rickie wants it or not, I think he needs a game or two off. That and his pregame bp sessions should include nothing but sliders on the outer half - he has the look of a hitter who's completely lost and not able to make the adjustment to get him out of this funk right now.

[FVBrewerFan]

What the hell happened to all the posters who actually looked at more than small samples. This board has definitely take n a turn for the worse. So man knee jerk reactions.

 

It is beyond maddening. Pretty much started with FatterThanJoey and Brian leaving. They used to hold everyone accountable. Next you lose Pogo, Sessile, AndThat, Patrick, Russ and Sam and you just get a smorgasbord of nonsense, hindsight GM's, and kneejerkers.

 

I think the best (and there are some really smart ones) of who's left are just tired of having to explain the same basic concepts over and over again.

 

I searched past Rickie Weeks threads. There are multiple made every year going back to 2006. Most are negative of course. The ones that start positive, often are infiltrated by posters who hate strike outs. Seriously, why must Rickie be defended multiple times every single year? Do people not realize the state of MLB second baseman? Even at his very worst, there are not 15 second baseman I would trade him for. At his best, he is an all-star. Get over it already.

 

Honestly, this strikes me as condescending. Just because there's a lot of people here who don't believe Weeks should be hitting 4th in the order, we're all so short-sighted and can't grasp the concept of small sample size.

 

So what would YOU do? Keep him in the 4 hole until ARam is back, regardless of what he's doing at the plate? And if he is still struggling at the current pace, do you actually move him up to #1 or #2 when ARam returns? It's no longer a small sample when he hit at this level the entire 1st half of the year last year, now he's on the same pace again this year. You may not agree with moving him down the line-up until his bat gets going again, but don't act like it's a crazy knee-jerk reaction.

 

Just seems like you set up a straw man argument. The consensus is move him down the line-up, not DFA him or run him out of town. Yet you seem to position it as everyone hates Weeks, and you are the voice of reason, I apologize if I'm taking it the wrong way.

[Gobias Industries]

I agree with the posts above.

 

I can live with 200 k's a year if a guy is hitting for power and getting on base. Weeks is doing neither. He's 6 for his last 60 and I know for sure 2 of the hits were bloop doubles. He had that one hard out late in the game vs SF last week but that's it for tough luck. So basically in 2 weeks of play the guy has hit the ball hard 5 times and struck out or popped out the other half. How is that even possible?

 

Has it been a small sample? Of course. No one's arguing he's gonna hit this way the whole year so can it. But we've now got over 800 plate appearances (aka the last 20% of his career) where he's been a low 700 ops hitter and a very, very, very poor defender. I'd be shocked if the FO isn't at least starting to kick around other options in case this carries over into the summer.

[Noche]

So what would YOU do?

 

I would realize that he has been in a slump for 1/10 of his probable at-bats. And then I would recognize that isn't very much. Next I would remind myself of his pretty extensive track record of above average second baseman hitting. Then I would remember that the league is filled with much worse starting second baseman. Somewhere along the way, I would look for a minor mechanical adjustment realizing that the quick bat and decent approach are still present. I also would be thankful that the team was still performing well during his slump.

 

Lastly, I would give him a day off.

 

I know you mentioned the consensus but there were plenty of voices suggesting he be benched/platooned (so he didn't realize his option year), DFA (so the Blue Jays could pick him up), moved to 8th in the order, and many practically begging for him to be off the team after his current contract.

 

This happens every year around here. Thankfully, the people in charge do not think this way.

[rluzinski]

ZiPs rest of season projection for Weeks:

 

.244/.336/.428

 

Clearly, his struggles over the last 1+ years has translated into lowered offensive expectations going forward. That line with averagish defense at 2B has positive value, though. He can't continue to struggle defensively and be worth is contact, though.

 

Furthermore, I don't think anyone is suggesting that Weeks fits well in the 4th spot. He was only there because the two best options there are unavailable. Even Weeks in his prime was a great hitting 2B but there's a reason 2B don't usually hit in the prime hitting spots.

 

If someone wants to argue that Weeks should be batting lower in the lineup, that is reasonable. In my opinion, suggesting Weeks should platoon with Scooter Gennett is fairly ridiculous, however. I would say even suggesting he bat behind Betencourt and (especially) Gonzalez is based on shortsightedness.

[Gobias Industries]

Hopefully Gennett will turn into a nice everyday 2b, but just from looking at his stats, I'd say 2015 is the earliest he should be up.

[brewcrewdue80]

For all the hate on my hating.

 

I believe I am the only one to say DFA and Platoon Gennett. Nobody else has gone there. I've just said it differently my hate towards Weeks multiple times in worsening fashions.

I don't have a lot of faith in Weeks approaching those Zips projections. It's all about the Ks. He's a .250 career hitter who is striking out more often now than what he's done for his career to be a .250 hitter. I don't know if it's focus. Maybe a hidden injury. But if any chance of either of those two, I see bench time being beneficial. Really, my hate just needs to be focused on RRR for placing Rickie in the top half of the order around two of Baseball's hottest players so that when Rickie gets up, his results look just awful. I'd imagine it like a SP duel where 1 threw a no-hitter through 9 the other threw a perfect game through 9 and it's tied and now the managers go to their bullpen. Segura/Braun set the bar so high, and all I'm thinking about is how amazing some of these innings could be with Weeks playing at least to his career avg vs. .100+ pts below it.

[monty57]

For all the hate on my hating.

 

I believe I am the only one to say DFA and Platoon Gennett. Nobody else has gone there. I've just said it differently my hate towards Weeks multiple times in worsening fashions.

I don't have a lot of faith in Weeks approaching those Zips projections. It's all about the Ks. He's a .250 career hitter who is striking out more often now than what he's done for his career to be a .250 hitter. I don't know if it's focus. Maybe a hidden injury. But if any chance of either of those two, I see bench time being beneficial. Really, my hate just needs to be focused on RRR for placing Rickie in the top half of the order around two of Baseball's hottest players so that when Rickie gets up, his results look just awful. I'd imagine it like a SP duel where 1 threw a no-hitter through 9 the other threw a perfect game through 9 and it's tied and now the managers go to their bullpen. Segura/Braun set the bar so high, and all I'm thinking about is how amazing some of these innings could be with Weeks playing at least to his career avg vs. .100+ pts below it.

 

I have to give Roenicke some leeway in that his top options for the cleanup spot are injured, so going with the guy who is supposed to be one of your better hitters isn't a bad decision. That said, I'd move Weeks down since he's looking pretty bad at this point, and while there isn't an ideal candidate, as I mentioned earlier, I'd put Gomez there until Ramirez is back.

 

As to your last sentence, I doubt Segura is a .900 OPS hitter, and I doubt that Weeks is a .540 OPS hitter. Segura will cool off some, and Weeks will heat up some. It's just the nature of baseball. I don't know if Weeks is still an .800 OPS guy, but at his age I find it hard to believe he's fallen over the cliff. It's possible his injuries have added up and "aged" him, but then it would be hard to explain his 2nd half of 2012.

 

All in all, Weeks is a streaky player who goes through really bad spells and really good spells, but he usually ends up with acceptable-to-good numbers. In that aspect, he reminds me of Jenkins, and it's probably why both of them cause(d) a lot of fan angst. He's signed to an eight-figure salary, and we don't have any good options to replace him, so he's not going to get traded unless he really steps it up (when people would say he shouldn't be traded), and he's going to get a significant amount of playing time, even if he continues to struggle. Getting Hart and Ramirez back will ease this some, as he (hopefully) will get moved down in the lineup. As I said earlier, I think if he's a #8 hitter, he'd post a .400 OBP and rack up quite a few RBIs with Lucroy and Gomez in front of him.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Lucroy is a much better option for batting clean up and yes that mean people saying take Weeks and bat him further down in the order have a very legitimate point. It's been proven also that Weeks isn't clutch and that's another legit reason to take him out of the 4 spot.

 

Nothing knee jerking about it. It's common sense at this point.

[Raw Biz]

It's been proven also that Weeks isn't clutch and that's another legit reason to take him out of the 4 spot.

 

Nothing knee jerking about it. It's common sense at this point.

 

Haven't we basically agreed there is really no way to "prove" clutchness. Saying so does not make it true. I agree Weeks shouldn't be hitting cleanup but using "proof" that he isn't clutch is not a "legit reason."

[rluzinski]

For all the hate on my hating.

 

I believe I am the only one to say DFA and Platoon Gennett. Nobody else has gone there. I've just said it differently my hate towards Weeks multiple times in worsening fashions.

I don't have a lot of faith in Weeks approaching those Zips projections. It's all about the Ks. He's a .250 career hitter who is striking out more often now than what he's done for his career to be a .250 hitter.

 

There was at least one other poster advocating platooning Weeks with Gennett.

 

And I don't follow your logic at all regarding why you think he won't hit those projections. ZiPS and everyone else already know that Weeks is striking out at a much higher rate than normal, even for him:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/1849_2B_season_mini_4_20130422.png

 

Why should we expect that to continue? It's not like ZiPS is ignoring that it went up last year or has been terrible this year. It takes that all into consideration.

 

What is your projection for him, going forward, for 2013?

[Noche]

Lucroy is a much better option for batting clean up and yes that mean people saying take Weeks and bat him further down in the order have a very legitimate point. It's been proven also that Weeks isn't clutch and that's another legit reason to take him out of the 4 spot.

 

Nothing knee jerking about it. It's common sense at this point.

 

Remind me how you "prove" clutch?

 

Your first reason was probably the best I have heard. Lucroy probably is just a better hitter over the course of the season. Speaks volumes for Jon.

[brewcrewdue80]

Why should we expect that to continue? It's not like ZiPS is ignoring that it went up last year or has been terrible this year. It takes that all into consideration.

 

What is your projection for him, going forward, for 2013?

 

 

At prime approaching years Weeks didn't bat .240 for the season. With a lower K rate then.

 

To me I'm thinking he's done well if he goes .216BA the rest of the season. And the problem with that then is you're looking at a .310-.320 OB.

He turned around a 35%K rate through 1st 3months last year to 23% rest of the way. He's a year older at 37% thus far this season. I'm just looking at the year older, flashes of problems. Eventually, it goes the other way around. Rather than correct it his age doesn't allow him to. Look at it this way. 35% was a .181BA for him. 37% thus far is .171. at 28% for the entire year he finished at .230. After this start, I'm just afraid to believe that he can keep his K Rate, under 30%. He got worse after last years horrible first month. What if he gets worse for another month this season? What if he doesn't post a 3month stretch of 23% K rate? His Career stands at 27%KRate mind you.

 

I stated this in the lineup thread that to me Weeks' value was in his BB% rate as he never hit well for Avg. and the fact he had that BB% rate vs who else there was on the team at that time is why Weeks batted 1 or 2. That he should have been a 5/6 but the team had no one that was getting OB. Now the team does have those 1/2 in order. And now he is batting 5 finally and hopefully drops to 7th/8th. His power is down, question if he'll get to 20 again.

I guess part of what always made Weeks acceptible to me was his offensive ability/output and the progression he could have. It outweighed his Defense. But if he's going to barely scrape a .230 avg I seriously have questions whether Gennett deserves a shot. If he's any better defensively. Is it out of the question for Gennett to bat .230? Or higher? but less OB? where does the line cross in defense ability to offensive ability? How many more runs does Weeks score offensively vs. what Gennett would save defensively?

Guess what I'm getting to is Weeks had a Negative WAR last season. And he's in negative thus far on the young season. Does Gennett not have the chance to at least approach 0WAR? That's why I come up with the suggestion to platoon the two. You get a see on Gennett not only at the plate but in the field.

 

I don't know, its just the fan in me wanting to see the team well. And last season when the team went to the AS Break due to failure, a lot of it could be looked at the numbers Rickie was posting. And the Bullpen of course. But when you have a leadoff/2nd in order batting .150? That's a problem in my eyes. Here we stand with him at .171.

Maybe its the excitement Segura brings. Young blood, a true Spark. And I'm thinking let's try Gennett to see if he can be a spark on top of Segura. I mean aside from SBs....their minor league numbers are close. in the same amount games at this point. So, just putting it out there.

[Ennder]

Lucroy is a much better option for batting clean up and yes that mean people saying take Weeks and bat him further down in the order have a very legitimate point. It's been proven also that Weeks isn't clutch and that's another legit reason to take him out of the 4 spot.

 

Nothing knee jerking about it. It's common sense at this point.

 

Weeks OPS by situation.

 

Low - .779

Medium - .780

High - .716

 

2012 NL league wide stats.

 

Low - .711

Medium - .719

High - .735

 

2011 NL league wide stats

 

Low - .695

Medium - .729

High - .706

 

There is at least a little evidence that he isn't 'clutch'. My guess is it is more because he faces really tough RH RP in high leverage situations and he stinks against good pitchers and he stinks against RHP. A lot of his offensive stats come off of marginal LHP which he doesn't face much late in the game.