Burgos Coming up?

[brewcrewdue80]

Logan said:

 

I think that strategy is backwards. We can pay for average MLB players. We can't afford MLB stars unless they come up through our system. It sounds like a few of the guys drafted last year might be really good so I am hoping things turn around a bit.

 

This is exactly what I am thinking. When the club can afford the 10mil contracts but not the 15mil+ then to me they need to draft strictly through the roof ceiling types and not lower ceiling but high floor types.

 

If they bust they bust but hitting on one of these High Ceiling guys sets a club up long term to build around like Braun. Like others said 2011 going with Bradley/Jungmann vs drafting Fernandez/Guerrieri. HS arms with high ceiling just lengthy development time. BTW. How do you pass up a pitcher with the last name Fernandez? Don't AS come attached to that name?

 

Anyway, I'd draft strictly to fill my team up with the highest talent not the higher floor. Again think what the Fernandez/Barnes or Guerrieri draft duos would have this team looking. Lohse wouldn't be signed and kept the 17th pick. That's a pick + the 12mil/yr to go towards insuring long term success elsewhere.

[Mr Southpaw]

I went to Chattanooga about four years ago to watch the first round pick fastball pitcher we traded to KC. I sat there for nine innings and came away totally impressed......with Lucroy...... and the way he handled the pitching staff. I could see then who the better pro would be. I would hope we try to develop pitchers not throwers. I will take my chances with Hiram and his type as they can develop into the mini-Maddox types. There is nothing wrong with having a bunch of number three pitchers on your staff or hanging around in AAA.

 

We need our 3rd-7th round picks to turn into contributors and more than likely they will be the Lucroy, Green, Gamel, Burgos type of players. You need at least three players from every draft to have some sort of impact at the major league level, not just the first rounders.

[TheCrew07]

Hiram Burgos Rises From Brevard County To Big Leagues

[Ennder]

We need our 3rd-7th round picks to turn into contributors and more than likely they will be the Lucroy, Green, Gamel, Burgos type of players. You need at least three players from every draft to have some sort of impact at the major league level, not just the first rounders.

 

No team in baseball is this successful at drafting, not a single one. Anyway just a few years ago we had an excess of talent in our system and they turned into jack and his friend that I won't name on a family friendly board. Minor league system ratings don't really mean very much. Our 3 best players from recent drafts were a complete stud (Braun), a guy a lot of people passed on early because he was so flawed (Fielder) and a pitcher we got in the 2nd round.

 

Bryan Bullington, Chris Gruler, Adam Loewen and Clint Everts were drafted over Fielder. In 2003 and 2004 they were probably all highly rated by most prospect sites and not one of them made an impact in the majors.

[TheCrew07]

Anyway just a few years ago we had an excess of talent in our system and they turned into jack and his friend that I won't name on a family friendly board. Minor league system ratings don't really mean very much. Our 3 best players from recent drafts were a complete stud (Braun), a guy a lot of people passed on early because he was so flawed (Fielder) and a pitcher we got in the 2nd round.

 

Bryan Bullington, Chris Gruler, Adam Loewen and Clint Everts were drafted over Fielder. In 2003 and 2004 they were probably all highly rated by most prospect sites and not one of them made an impact in the majors.

 

It's difficult to refute such clever and insightful commentary...

 

You mean that surplus talent that was traded away? Let me see... Cain who's playing CF in KC, Escobar who's playing SS in KC, Lawrie who's playing 3B in Toronto, and Brantley who's playing the OF for Cleveland... yea, none of those guys have accomplished anything. Not to mention Odorizzi who if he was in any other system other than Tampa's would be pitching in the big leagues right now. Jake is not the surefire top of the rotation pitcher many of us hoped he would become as his secondary stuff hasn't advanced with his command, but he's a sold #3 and could overachieve into a #2.

 

I have a hard time believing that guy like LaPorta won't one day contribute in some manner but his struggles haven't hurt my feelings at all and I'm pretty sure KC is okay with Jeffress flaming out given the productivity of Escobar and Cain and the fact that they were able to flip Odorizzi in the Shields package.

 

The top guys who flamed out as Brewer property were Parra, Braddock, and Salome, and both of the latter players have legitimate mental problems, and in Braddock's case apparently something else was going on behind the scenes as well. Parra... I think he's soft mentally, he has all the physical tools you'd want in a guy but won't attack hitters, he's the one guy I'm actually pissed about.

 

Anyway it really sucks that we had another first round pick make the majors and contribute in some way, though it's too bad he's not accomplishing anything, shame on you Hiram.

[Ennder]

You mean that surplus talent that was traded away? Let me see... Cain who's playing CF in KC, Escobar who's playing SS in KC, Lawrie who's playing 3B in Toronto, and Brantley who's playing the OF for Cleveland... yea, none of those guys have accomplished anything. Not to mention Odorizzi who if he was in any other system other than Tampa's would be pitching in the big leagues right now. Jake is not the surefire top of the rotation pitcher many of us hoped he would become as his secondary stuff hasn't advanced with his command, but he's a sold #3 and could overachieve into a #2

 

You mean Cain who has yet to put a league average season, Escobar who has 1 league average year at age 27, Lawrie who has been pretty much awful offensively, Brantley who is almost replacement level except for the fact he plays CF at only a slightly below average level. Our farm system that was so highly rated has completely failed compared to expectations. I expect our current crop to pass what the post Braun crop did.

[gregmag]

TC07's mention of the prospects we traded away got me thinking about the earlier discussion. If we want the Brewers to draft impact talent, as opposed to fairly ordinary talent, isn't a corollary that we want them to they trade fairly ordinary talent in pursuit of impact players?

 

Lawrie is a credible starter who appears to have a real chance of becoming a star. He's only 23. He's also a lunkhead, and he hasn't built at all yet on his great debut, but he has time.

 

Brantley and Escobar are credible MLB starters, neither of whom offers any reason at this point to believe he's going to be more than that.

 

Cain is sort of in the same category as Brantley and Escobar, except that he seems to have a greater chance either to flame out (because he's just beginning to establish himself as a starter) or to break out. But he's 27; he's not close to Lawrie's category.

 

LaPorta is a bust. He's a 28 year-old one-dimensional power hitter whose one dimension hasn't developed.

 

Odorizzi is still a wild card. He could be nothing, or he could be an all-star.

 

I really liked Cain and Brantley as they were coming up, and I root for them, but I can't fault DM for trading them when he did for what he got. I'd rather have the CF we have. Escobar doesn't appear to be anything special, and while we failed to replace him immediately, I'd certainly rather have the ss we have now (whom we got, of course, for the guy we got for Escobar). Selling high on LaPorta turns out to have been very smart.

 

Lawrie for Marcum may have been a terrible trade. On the other hand, if Lawrie doesn't develop, it's fine. We could still end up lamenting losing Odorizzi, but it's hard to argue that we didn't get value for him.

 

On balance, I think DM's choices about which prospects to package for impact talent look sound to me.

[Ennder]

Lawrie for Marcum may have been a terrible trade. On the other hand, if Lawrie doesn't develop, it's fine. We could still end up lamenting losing Odorizzi, but it's hard to argue that we didn't get value for him.

 

Lawrie developing into a good defensive player really makes this one look bad. I think part of this was a character trade though.

[Invader3K]

Don't forget Jeremy Jeffress, who also had "character issues" and has basically been a total bust as well.

 

Other than Nelson Cruz, who took years to develop, Melvin hasn't traded anyone who has made a major impact at the MLB level. Overall his track record with trades has been stellar.

 

What any of this has to do with Hiram Burgos, I'm not sure, but here we are.

[torts]

What any of this has to do with Hiram Burgos, I'm not sure, but here we are.

 

LOL

[DrugBust]

Would you rather have Cain, Escobar, Jeffress and Odorizzi or Segura, Hellweg and Pena?

 

This is a no-brainer to me. I think we ended up with the best player in the deal by a good margin and we got to watch Greinke help the Brewers win a division title.

[TheCrew07]

You mean Cain who has yet to put a league average season, Escobar who has 1 league average year at age 27, Lawrie who has been pretty much awful offensively, Brantley who is almost replacement level except for the fact he plays CF at only a slightly below average level. Our farm system that was so highly rated has completely failed compared to expectations. I expect our current crop to pass what the post Braun crop did.

 

To quote a favorite movie of mine, "you really got me there..."

 

For the last time our farm system graduated all of the highly rated talent like Weeks, Fielder, Braun, Hardy, Hart, and Gallardo... those guys made us #1. They graduated, that's the way life works. We haven't been a top rated farm system in many years, anyone with the potential to be a 3 WAR player or better from the 2nd wave was traded away.

 

"Completely failed to expectations"... what? Yours maybe.

[TURBO]

Would you rather have Cain, Escobar, Jeffress and Odorizzi or Segura, Hellweg and Pena?

 

This is a no-brainer to me. I think we ended up with the best player in the deal by a good margin and we got to watch Greinke help the Brewers win a division title.

 

Not that I don't agree with you now, but to properly judge those players, we'll need a couple more years.

 

Right now, it looks like we made out the best.

[Ennder]

Bpro listed us at #7 in 2007. #13 in 2008. #15 in 2009.

 

In 2008 our top prospects to start the year on the power 50 were Parra, LaPorta, Escobar, Gamel, Jeffress, Salome, Gillespie, Pena, Brewer and Lucroy. The only other players in the top 30 that made any impact are Cain and Narveson (#30). Our minor league system right now is better than that is and we were #13 back then. In 2009 we had traded away LaPorta and Parra was no longer a prospect but added Peralta, Lawrie, Odorizzi and our rankings went down even though the talent level in the system went up.

 

This is an extremely inexact science when it comes to ranking players is all I'm going to say. I put very little stock into these rankings.

[gregmag]

Don't forget Jeremy Jeffress, who also had "character issues" and has basically been a total bust as well.

 

Other than Nelson Cruz, who took years to develop, Melvin hasn't traded anyone who has made a major impact at the MLB level. Overall his track record with trades has been stellar.

 

What any of this has to do with Hiram Burgos, I'm not sure, but here we are.

Just the whole thing about how we think about ordinary vs. impact prospects, with Burgos being a quintessential ordinary guy. Sorry if I took it too far afield. Also, thanks for bringing in Jeffress and Cruz; those same thoughts occurred to me after I posted.

[TheCrew07]

Bpro listed us at #7 in 2007. #13 in 2008. #15 in 2009.

When I posted that nice story about Burgos I had no intention to get drawn into another circular debate to nowhere with you. I'm honestly ticked off at myself for allowing it to happen again. Apparently you want to be different and use Baseball Prospectus... okay, that's fine to each his own. Coming into 2007 Braun and Gallardo were still prospects... and you realize that 13 and 15 are middle of the road and not "top rated" correct?

 

In 2008 our top prospects to start the year on the power 50 were Parra, LaPorta, Escobar, Gamel, Jeffress, Salome, Gillespie, Pena, Brewer and Lucroy. The only other players in the top 30 that made any impact are Cain and Narveson (#30). Our minor league system right now is better than that is and we were #13 back then. In 2009 we had traded away LaPorta and Parra was no longer a prospect but added Peralta, Lawrie, Odorizzi and our rankings went down even though the talent level in the system went up.

i'm not going to defend the P50 rankings, the 4 people that were participating in the rankings at that time have adequately defended their position with every release and the accompanying thread. At that time the ranking were more on potential than projected MLB impact.

 

We already went over most of the P50 prospects yesterday but we currently have no one playing as well with similar ceilings to Escobar, LaPorta, Gamel, or Salome. Gillespie is/was a 4th OF type, when those guys are in your top 10 then your talent level is sinking... I would say that Gindl is roughly comparable to Gillespie in terms of prospect status. In 2009 Peralta was a two pitch pitcher in WI with erratic command, most scouts viewed him as a reliever. Odorizzi would spend the year in short season rookie ball and Lawrie held his own but didn't dominate the MWL in the manner that super prospects do. While certainly talented none of those players performed to the same level as the players they were replacing from 2007 and 2008. Once again prospect rankings aren't so much about your depth, but the potential impact players at the top which is the point you continually miss, you seem to want depth to count for something regardless of how many times the contrary points are made.

 

I agree that prospect rankings are not exact science, nothing in baseball is, not even from a sabermetric point of view. As a fan of the minor leagues since I found this site in 2003 I don't think our system is remotely comparable to the system pre Sabathia trade.

 

Would you rather have Cain, Escobar, Jeffress and Odorizzi or Segura, Hellweg and Pena?

This linear thinking regarding the trades is the main disconnect between Melvin supporters and the posters that would rather go in a different direction. Some of the trades stand on their own, like trading Wayne Franklin for Carlos Villanueva because when you are trading garbage you're hoping to get any kind of return on the player. However, all of the big trades from Overbay through Greinke are linked, there's a domino effect. The issue on a macro level has nothing to do with how well the players traded have or haven't done or who we'd rather have. The on a macro level the issue is plugging holes long-term and permanently solving problems. I absolutely will trade prospects, but I despise trading them for rentals or short term solutions. I don't believe in the "one player away" philosophy and history has proven that even after making those short term deals the Brewers were still 2 players away (if not more) come playoff time.

 

In the case of the Greinke trade even trying to evaluate the trade on it's own I don't think it's proper to just compare prospects for prospects, Lohse and his backloaded contract and the loss of a 1st round pick are also part of the ultimate cost. Would I rather have Escobar than Segura? Well that depends how the argument is framed... are we talking in 2011 or in 2013? Segura is definitely a better player than his scouting reports would have suggested, especially defensively, and he has vastly superior upside offensively. However Escobar would kept us from 2 years of craptastic SS play. I would rather have Odorizzi than Hellweg, and I would take Pena over Jeffress. Was 1.5 years of Greinke worth Cain, a draft pick, Lohse, Gomez in 2011, and the poor SS play for 2 years? As I've stated many times we arrived at this point not because it was preordained but because Melvin made choices about the type players he was going to trade for. Looking at the Lee trade what positive did Mench or Nix bring back? Why did we need 2 4th OFs and a closer from the Lee trade? Making different choices along the way could have meant that neither Marcum or Greinke trades would have been necessary.

 

Every trade Melvin has made has been built on the moves which came before it, when all you do is rent players for a short duration, continually making the same kind of trade, in the end your options are vastly limited. That's what happened to us, it wasn't trading prospects, that's fine, I have no problem trading prospects here and there, it was continually making 1 type of trade to patch the MLB roster instead of looking for more long-term options. Every big trade with the exception of the latest Greinke deal were solely about patching a specific hole on the major league roster, they weren't about building the organizational depth which will allow us to compete long-term. We lost payroll and roster flexibility with each successive move... the payroll went up and the talent options went down.

 

I don't hate Melvin, I was a huge fan until 2008, then I realized the path we were on as an organization and my opinion changed drastically. I've been beating the exact same drum since 2008, I wanted to get younger and more dynamic everywhere, but specifically I wanted to build around young pitching. My current problem is that with every season the Brewers are over .500 the likely hood that Melvin gets extended again becomes more real. I don't want the Brewers to ever lose a game, yet I don't think retaining Melvin is in the best interests of the organization. Therefore I've essentially quit watching games, I only watch them when I'm around my family and I've chosen to focus the overwhelming majority of my time on the minor leagues.

 

I'm done derailing this thread, hopefully Hiram continues to pitch well, he's an easy young man to root for, as are many of our fringe type prospects like Khris Davis.