Burgos Coming up?

[Oxy]

Fiers, Khris Davis and Josh Prince.

[adambr2]

Why should his stuff give him a longer leash? I don't care if he throws 110 with movement if he isn't getting anybody out he isn't helping.

 

I think it really depends where you are as an organization.

 

If you're a rebuilding doormat, you can afford and should afford to be patient with your talent if there's nothing left to be gained in the minors for them.

 

If you're a top contender already, you probably will tend to have more of a "productivity now" mentality and avoid rushing guys up before they're 100% ready to be productive.

 

To me, we're in a position where it's all about ceiling and upside. Our rotation is currently Gallardo, Lohse, and then question marks. But of those question marks, only Peralta has the upside to be a #2 starter. If he turns into one, that probably pushes us over the hump and makes us contenders.

 

No disrespect to Fiers, but he's a #4 ceiling guy. I'm less likely to be patient with one of them if they're struggling. It's a lot easier to find and develop a #4/#5 starter in your minor league system than a #1/#2.

[Noche]

Burgos is the 4th member of the 2009 draft to make it to the Brewers. Not bad considering how poorly the top picks have done.

 

[sarcasm]Fire Bruce Seid! Wait, you mean he has knack for drafting big leaguers?[/sarcasm]

 

Hopefully the perception tide starts to turn for Bruce. For me, he will probably never get enough credit.

[logan82]

He will get credit when we see some better than average MLB players from his drafts.

[Noche]

He will get credit when we see some better than average MLB players from his drafts.

 

And I am sure you get to decide who is better than average?

 

Let me know when Bruce meets your bar, k Logan? I am guessing this never happens.

[logan82]

He will get credit when we see some better than average MLB players from his drafts.

 

And I am sure you get to decide who is better than average?

 

Let me know when Bruce meets your bar, k Logan? I am guessing this never happens.

I could be convinced if there was some effort made to support his drafts or possibly supply a reason why he isn't getting enough credit.

[Noche]

He will get credit when we see some better than average MLB players from his drafts.

 

And I am sure you get to decide who is better than average?

 

Let me know when Bruce meets your bar, k Logan? I am guessing this never happens.

I could be convinced if there was some effort made to support his drafts or possibly supply a reason why he isn't getting enough credit.

 

We landed Prince, Khris Davis, Burgos, Fiers and Gennett all in the 2009 class. All were outside of our top 6 picks. Every one of those guys are big leaguers. With Kentrail Davis, Halton, Cam Garfield and others still on the way, it makes me think people just are not satisfied unless they have something to complain about.

 

That is one class. Are any stars? Probably not, but the star was plucked out from underneath us (Trout). Is the top of our draft a bit sketchy? Of course, but that's why they make picks beyond the 2nd round.

 

People suggest Seid is incompetent. It's laughable. Show me 10 other teams who have more big leaguers from the 2009 draft. Show me 5.

 

Edit: my point will always be the Seid drafts big leaguers. the flame out rate for draft picks is incredibly high.

[TooLiveBrew]

We landed Prince, Khris Davis, Burgos, Fiers and Gennett all in the 2009 class. All were outside of our top 6 picks. Every one of those guys are big leaguers. With Kentrail Davis, Halton, Cam Garfield and others still on the way, it makes me think people just are not satisfied unless they have something to complain about.

 

That is one class. Are any stars? Probably not, but the star was plucked out from underneath us (Trout). Is the top of our draft a bit sketchy? Of course, but that's why they make picks beyond the 2nd round.

 

People suggest Seid is incompetent. It's laughable. Show me 10 other teams who have more big leaguers from the 2009 draft. Show me 5.

 

Edit: my point will always be the Seid drafts big leaguers. the flame out rate for draft picks is incredibly high.

I think, if you want to evaluate a SD, you'd need to look at his entire tenure & not just use his best/a good single draft. In addition to the draft, any international FA prospects signed should be factored in (not going to attempt to dig into this one, since I'm not aware of any nicely-maintained database of these guys). It's also really important imo to analyze what kind of talent is making the bigs. I personally would rather take two or three really good players over five or six role-player types.

 

To your challenge, it's disingenuous to count Gennett already, since it's entirely possible (however unlikely) that he doesn't make it to MLB. Here is the current list of # of big-leaguers produced from the '09 draft:

 

6: LAA, STL

5: None

4: CHC, MIL, TOR

3: ARZ, CLE, DET, SEA

 

I'm not familiar enough with the other teams' draftees to realistically guess (like you/we are on Gennett) who else may make the bigs. But it's entirely possible that every other team that currently has three or four guys (heck, even two) in the bigs could pass the Brewers in the next year or two. That's not to say that Seid didn't do well in the '09 draft. It's just not such a simplistic situation that one can merely count big-leaguers developed out of the draft & that's the end of that. There needs to be a far more comprehensive approach.

[splitterpfj]

Congrats to Burgos, not so long ago, it looked like this might never happen.

[Noche]

Thanks for looking at that closer TLB. And you are right, any analysis needs to be more comprehensive. Maybe the Seid haters could remember that before they insist on complaining about the Eric Arnetts and Evan Fredricksons of the world.

[logan82]

Thanks for looking at that closer TLB. And you are right, any analysis needs to be more comprehensive. Maybe the Seid haters could remember that before they insist on complaining about the Eric Arnetts and Evan Fredricksons of the world.

You talk like people haven't looked at it. I think you need to raise your expectations a bit for posters on this board. There are many who follow the minors very closely. Some who follow the minors exclusively. We need our scouting and drafting department to draft stars now and then not just average or bench MLB players. It isn't just individuals who didn't pan out. It is our whole MiLB system as a whole that is weak. You could start with this thread.

 

I see you actually posted in that thread. Bottom line though, we need our scouting department to identify and draft Impact Talent™ not just MLB players.

[monty57]

Thanks for looking at that closer TLB. And you are right, any analysis needs to be more comprehensive. Maybe the Seid haters could remember that before they insist on complaining about the Eric Arnetts and Evan Fredricksons of the world.

You talk like people haven't looked at it. I think you need to raise your expectations a bit for posters on this board. There are many who follow the minors very closely. Some who follow the minors exclusively. We need our scouting and drafting department to draft stars now and then not just average or bench MLB players. It isn't just individuals who didn't pan out. It is our whole MiLB system as a whole that is weak. You could start with this thread.

 

I think one of the big complaints is that the Brewers seem to have set their sites on "high floor/low ceiling" players. That would add to the certainty that we'd get MLB players, but they'd be role players and back-of-the-rotation guys. Our current farm system seems to be filled with these type players, but lacks guys who could be above average, much less star players.

[logan82]

Thanks for looking at that closer TLB. And you are right, any analysis needs to be more comprehensive. Maybe the Seid haters could remember that before they insist on complaining about the Eric Arnetts and Evan Fredricksons of the world.

You talk like people haven't looked at it. I think you need to raise your expectations a bit for posters on this board. There are many who follow the minors very closely. Some who follow the minors exclusively. We need our scouting and drafting department to draft stars now and then not just average or bench MLB players. It isn't just individuals who didn't pan out. It is our whole MiLB system as a whole that is weak. You could start with this thread.

 

I think one of the big complaints is that the Brewers seem to have set their sites on "high floor/low ceiling" players. That would add to the certainty that we'd get MLB players, but they'd be role players and back-of-the-rotation guys. Our current farm system seems to be filled with these type players, but lacks guys who could be above average, much less star players.

I think that strategy is backwards. We can pay for average MLB players. We can't afford MLB stars unless they come up through our system. It sounds like a few of the guys drafted last year might be really good so I am hoping things turn around a bit.

[Noche]

Thanks for looking at that closer TLB. And you are right, any analysis needs to be more comprehensive. Maybe the Seid haters could remember that before they insist on complaining about the Eric Arnetts and Evan Fredricksons of the world.

You talk like people haven't looked at it. I think you need to raise your expectations a bit for posters on this board. There are many who follow the minors very closely. Some who follow the minors exclusively. We need our scouting and drafting department to draft stars now and then not just average or bench MLB players. It isn't just individuals who didn't pan out. It is our whole MiLB system as a whole that is weak. You could start with this thread.

 

I see you actually posted in that thread. Bottom line though, we need our scouting department to identify and draft Impact Talent™ not just MLB players.

 

I'm not as new to the forum as my post count indicates. I have seen the same people make the same ridiculous assumptions about Brewers prospects ever since the big 3 (Braun, Prince, Yo) graduated.

 

Seid drafts big leaguers. That is incredibly valuable. And he does it on a budget. To sit here an say none of them are impact players is rather ridiculous. Going back a few years, many argued Hart and Lucroy would never be impact guys. Whoops.

 

Now the same people insist that Fiers, Burgos, Schafer, Nelson, Thornburg, Jungmann, Morris, Gindl, Gennett and Khris Davis could not possibly be impactful. It's really quite funny. Three months ago, folks were unwilling to call Segura an impact guy.

 

You guys do realize how rare the Fielders and Brauns of the world are, right? Feel free to fawn over the Cardinals system all you want, but you must keep in mind that they have dropped much, much more cash into their system.

 

Good luck to Hiram. He has had a meteoric rise since early 2012 and I can't wait to see what he can do. But please, if he is not great as rookie, don't write him off as a lost cause. That would be ridiculous and I personally am very happy that Melvin, Roenicke and the rest do not operate that way.

[Oxy]

 

I'm not as new to the forum as my post count indicates. I have seen the same people make the same ridiculous assumptions about Brewers prospects ever since the big 3 (Braun, Prince, Yo) graduated.

 

Seid drafts big leaguers. That is incredibly valuable. And he does it on a budget. To sit here an say none of them are impact players is rather ridiculous. Going back a few years, many argued Hart and Lucroy would never be impact guys. Whoops.

 

Now the same people insist that Fiers, Burgos, Schafer, Nelson, Thornburg, Jungmann, Morris, Gindl, Gennett and Khris Davis could not possibly be impactful. It's really quite funny. Three months ago, folks were unwilling to call Segura an impact guy.

 

You guys do realize how rare the Fielders and Brauns of the world are, right? Feel free to fawn over the Cardinals system all you want, but you must keep in mind that they have dropped much, much more cash into their system.

 

Good luck to Hiram. He has had a meteoric rise since early 2012 and I can't wait to see what he can do. But please, if he is not great as rookie, don't write him off as a lost cause. That would be ridiculous and I personally am very happy that Melvin, Roenicke and the rest do not operate that way.

 

Hart and Lucroy had very successful minor League stats and careers. By the time they were in the system 3 or 4 years, there was lots of hope they would become impact players.

 

The number of all-stars who blossomed into all-stars without showing that kind of capability in the minor leagues is incredibly small. For high school guys, sometimes that might take awhile, but they usually still show it once they get up to AA after a few years. Right now we've got Hunter Morris and a bunch of pitchers who fit this category. Hopefully they work out.

 

Still, Braun and Gallardo are stars to build around. If Attanasio has the cash to keep signing players of the caliber of Ramirez, Lohse and Aoki, and Melvin is savvy in his trading, it is possible to to build a borderline playoff roster by filling in the rest of the spots with high floor, low ceiling type of prospects.

[Noche]

Hart and Lucroy had very successful minor League stats and careers. By the time they were in the system 3 or 4 years, there was lots of hope they would become impact players.

 

This just simply is not true. There were some who thought they could be very good, but I found myself constantly trying to convince hoards of much more pessimistic folks.

 

Lucroy in particular never made prospectors drool.

 

But you do have a point, those guys had very nice minor league careers. So has Schafer, Gindl, Khris Davis, Thornburg, and Nelson. Morris nearly won a triple crown last season and Gennett has been an all-star at every stop. You are only helping me make my point.

[RobDeer 45]

I did not look at everything, but was wondering, what can I expect to see for Burgos? I have to admit, I don't know a ton about him. A friend of mine said he'd be comparable to an Estrada if he can hit spots like him.

[Noche]

I did not look at everything, but was wondering, what can I expect to see for Burgos? I have to admit, I don't know a ton about him. A friend of mine said he'd be comparable to an Estrada if he can hit spots like him.

 

I would say, best case, he could develop into a Kyle Lohse type. He will try to pound the zone with a variety of well located pitches. I would hesitate to expect that kind of success right off the bat, obviously.

[TooLiveBrew]

From the few times I've seen Burgos pitch, his stuff to me was reminiscent of pre-liner-to-the-elbow Dave Bush's

[monty57]

I'm not as new to the forum as my post count indicates. I have seen the same people make the same ridiculous assumptions about Brewers prospects ever since the big 3 (Braun, Prince, Yo) graduated.

 

I admittedly know nothing about scouting. I just know that everyone I've read who is paid to know something about scouting says we have a poor system, and it's mainly because we have a bunch of guys who project to be utility guys, middle relievers or back-of-the-rotation starters. The only high-upside we hear about is Peralta and the guys we drafted last year (which makes it look like they may have went away from the "high floor/low ceiling" strategy). This is why I think this year is pivitol for the Brewers, as some players need to step it up and prove these scouts wrong. If a couple of guys take that next step, it would help us out tremendously.

 

As this is about Burgos and Fiers, I hope both find sustained success, but I think that expecting more than back-of-the-rotation careers for either of them is expecting too much. I will certainly be happy if we get it... I just don't expect it.

 

If Attanasio has the cash to keep signing players of the caliber of Ramirez, Lohse and Aoki, and Melvin is savvy in his trading, it is possible to to build a borderline playoff roster by filling in the rest of the spots with high floor, low ceiling type of prospects.

 

If that can continue while so many other teams are getting monster TV deals, then I will be impressed. Because yes, if we can simply go out and sign the best FA's on the market every year, then having utility players and back-of-the-rotation guys coming up from the minors is all we'll need. That this strategy has never worked in a small market, and has even blew up in the face of many big markets might be a hint that it's far, far better to "grow" your star players on the farm and pick up your role players via free agency.

[logan82]

If Attanasio has the cash to keep signing players of the caliber of Ramirez, Lohse and Aoki, and Melvin is savvy in his trading, it is possible to to build a borderline playoff roster by filling in the rest of the spots with high floor, low ceiling type of prospects.

+

The trading part does not sound much like Melvin.

[danzig6767]

 

If Attanasio has the cash to keep signing players of the caliber of Ramirez, Lohse and Aoki, and Melvin is savvy in his trading, it is possible to to build a borderline playoff roster by filling in the rest of the spots with high floor, low ceiling type of prospects.

 

If that can continue while so many other teams are getting monster TV deals, then I will be impressed. Because yes, if we can simply go out and sign the best FA's on the market every year, then having utility players and back-of-the-rotation guys coming up from the minors is all we'll need. That this strategy has never worked in a small market, and has even blew up in the face of many big markets might be a hint that it's far, far better to "grow" your star players on the farm and pick up your role players via free agency.

 

When have Melvin/Attanasio signed the best free agents on the market?

 

Sure they've signed some bigger name free agents compared to whatever the team signed under the Selig's, but none have been really expensive in the grand scheme of free agency where top tier guys get between 100-250 million dollar deals.

 

Clearly, for the team to continue contending and/or making the playoffs, the farm system will need to produce the next wave of cheap and quality players, be it position players, pitchers, or both. That said, i see nothing wrong with spending money here and there on mid-tier free agents like Ramirez or Lohse, so long as the contracts don't exceed three years long. It's been shown that the franchise can sustain payrolls in that 85-100 million range, so a mid-tier free agent or two can be afforded, but obviously cheap talent from the farm system also has to be cycled in pretty regularly to offset the costs of guys getting paid well, especially once Braun starts getting his big money.

[JohnBriggs12]

I was out of touch all week in Myrtle Beach but let me add my 2 cents, having not seen Burgos' outing but having seen him in the WBC.

 

First, Burgos is a command pitcher. Command pitchers get bad rapped, but command is a skill (see Greg Maddux). Be able to command 3 or 4 pitches and you will win at any level (see Maddux again). Second, Burgos works for the most part down in the zone. Guys that work down in the zone don't get burned deep as much and get double plays turned.

 

What impressed me about him in the WBC was his poise on the mound. That's huge for a young guy. Having succeeded there, I think he'll handle the majors. Costas, who knows a little baseball, was duly impressed and said so in the broadcast of the WBC championship game.

 

One concern. If Roenicke starts skipping his spot, he's risking having Burgos lose some command. But I doubt it. The young man seems to have what it takes to adjust to whatever is thrown at him.

[FVBrewerFan]

Funny how pitchers (especially SP) either throw 95 MPH+ or they are "command pitchers." There are many differences between pitchers who don't rely on a big fastball. Movement, hitting corners, at least one "plus" pitch other than aFB, ability to throw 3 or more poitches for strikes, etc. There's not just one type of pitcher who throws a 90 MPH FB.

 

This is not meant to go against with what you said Briggs, in fact it's meant to piggy-back on your comments. Truth is, a ton of successful SP currently and historically did not have a 95 MPH FB. But these guys are all lumped together as "control pitchers" as if that's a negative or something.

[TheCrew07]

Well there's top tier guys who work 95+

Then there is second tier guys who work 91-94.

Then there is everyone else... command pitchers.

 

Pitchers that rely totally on control can definitely be successful but they also tend to have extreme drop offs in production because if they aren't commaning the strike zone, they don't enough stuff to get hitters out.

 

Obviously having at least 1 legitimate secondary offering, some plus type out pitch, is a tremendous advantage, but isn't always necessary, especially for relievers. I don't want to restart the entire Fiers debate from last season but after spending enough time in the big league teams are going to figure a guy out. Most of the debate surrounding "control pitchers" is regarding their secondary stuff, and the secondary stuff isn't limited to averagish velocity guys, Tony Cingrani who just came up from the Minors for the Reds has that label and he's a LHP topping out in that 95 range... the "he doesn't have the secondary stuff to get MLB hitters out as a starter" label.

 

If I'm forced to take one or other, I'll take command over stuff, but when we're talking about trying to predict future success of a MiLB pitcher "stuff" is always going to be a key component of that discussion.

 

I wish Hiram all the success in the world, I'm pulling hard for him, but history isn't on the side of pitchers like him having a long career as a top of the rotation type starter, guys like Marcum are the exception rather than the rule.