How does a Brewers rotation of Adam Wainwright, Jered Weaver, Madison Bumgarner and Yovani Gallardo sound to you?

[Thurston Fluff]

Maybe we are just using the term differently. This is a pretty good definition of what I think replacement level is. http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/replacement-level/ I've always had problems with it. Not as a concept but of how it is used. It's used in a very vague way. It is a specific stat that Gives a baseline stat to combin with other stats to show actual performance. They may not be average but that doesn't mean they are worth no more than league minimum. If they are on your team you may want to upgrade from them. Which is what I personally think most people equate it to. But that desire to upgrade isn't the same as the player you have being totally useless.

[GenoSeligPrieb]

"He may or may not pan out. The point is they had 4 legitimate possibilities beyond Hart and Ramirez which you seemed to forget about when saying the brewer lost two guys and had to resort to a 30 year old hack catcher. Sadly three of the four got hurt as well. No team overcomes that without a serious drop off. "

 

Well, actually, you can say that about every minor league prospect. They may not pan out. But you shouldn't go from AA MVP to not being recalled when we desperately need a first baseman, because you suddenly can't hit. Fishy...

 

I also wonder why some first basemen, ones who may not hit like Corey, but at least can field the position (well), were not at least tried, instead of Lalli.

 

Free "talent" at 1B, like Jim Thome, Carlos Lee...and Freddy Sanchez has played 3B before and HAS to hit better than our scrubs. Sure, these 3 are past their prime, but they have to be a better option, with experience at 1B, than Betancourt or Lalli.

[TooLiveBrew]

Well, actually, you can say that about every minor league prospect. They may not pan out. But you shouldn't go from AA MVP to not being recalled when we desperately need a first baseman, because you suddenly can't hit. Fishy...

It seems pretty obvious to me that Morris probably struggled in ST because the 1B job in MLB was right there in front of him, and he was pressing. He can still hit.

 

Can you clarify what you're insinuating took place with regards to Morris?

[torts]

In 1994 we drafted Antone Williamson when Nomar Garciaparra and Paul Konerko were available

 

In 1995 we drafted Geoff Jenkins when Roy Halladay was available!

 

In 1997 we drafted Kyle Peterson when Lance Berkman was available!!!!

 

In 1998 we drafted J. M. Gold when CC Sabathia & Brad Lidge were available!!!!

 

In 1999 we drafted Ben Sheets

 

In 2000 we picked David Krynzel over Chase Utley and Adam Wainwright

 

In 2001 we picked Mike Jones over Aaron Heilman

 

In 2002 we picked Prince Fielder

 

Drafting Weeks in 2003 was a pretty solid pick, even in retrospect. Who else should we have taken? Paul Maholm? Chad Cordero?

 

In 2004 we picked Mark Rogers when Jered Weaver was available. D'oh!!!

 

In 2005 we picked Ryan Braun

 

In 2006 we picked Jeremy Jeffress over Ian Kennedy, Daniel Bard, Bryan Morris

 

In 2007 we picked Matt LaPorta over Madison Bumgarner

 

In 2008 we picked Brett Lawrie. There would've been no need to trade Lawrie had we properly drafted pitching previous to that pick!

 

In 2010 we drafted Dylan Covey over Zach Lee, Jesse Biddle

 

 

this is such a BS 20/20 post. you're taking the successes of other players in other farm systems in completely different team structures and putting that into MKE's system, which DOESNT WORK. there is no way you can say that any player we passed up in the draft would have:

 

a.) signed with the brewers

b.) progressed and developed through the minors at the same/better rate than the team that drafted them

c.) would have had success at the major league level

d.) wouldnt have gotten injured/had a set back/been mismanaged by MiLB coaches/staff/trainers

[trwi7]

My pain is picking a Maine fireballer in 2004 over a Texas fireballer. Only the Brewers could think Maine high school form was better than Texas high school form. I wonder if the Crew will be opening up acadamies in Greenland, Iceland, and Scotland. Would one call it the 'new' Moneyball?

 

Just like the Angels were stupid for taking that New Jersey outfielder over that Texas outfielder in 2009.

[Thurston Fluff]

Well, actually, you can say that about every minor league prospect. They may not pan out. But you shouldn't go from AA MVP to not being recalled when we desperately need a first baseman, because you suddenly can't hit. Fishy...

 

 

You do if that was the best season the guy ever had and want to nurture that development. It really depends on whether they think he is ready nor not. I only counted him because he is considered a prospect and he is at AAA. You can leave him off the list and you still neglected to mention 3/5ths of the injured players when saying "Something must be wrong if we lose a Hart, a Ramirez, and the only corner infielder our minor leagues can feed us is a 30-year-old hack catcher like Blake Lalli."

[GenoSeligPrieb]

OK, Thurston. By the way, I enjoy a nice colorful name. Good choice

 

Anyway, I guess I am saying that I fear that our minor league instructors may be giving Hunter Morris cigarettes, having him sleep in a small bed...whatever it is to stunt his growth. He may become an AAAA player. I want him to succeed to be our next first baseman for years to come.

 

I guess that's a long way of saying our minor-league instructors are not developing our nuggets correctly.

[logan82]

I don't think bringing Morris up would stunt his growth. I have serious questions about how good he is. I think so far 2012 looks like an outlier for Morris. We are starting Yuni at 1B yet again. Bring up Morris.

[Thurston Fluff]

OK, Thurston. By the way, I enjoy a nice colorful name. Good choice

 

Anyway, I guess I am saying that I fear that our minor league instructors may be giving Hunter Morris cigarettes, having him sleep in a small bed...whatever it is to stunt his growth. He may become an AAAA player. I want him to succeed to be our next first baseman for years to come.

 

I guess that's a long way of saying our minor-league instructors are not developing our nuggets correctly.

 

That may be true. Morris to me was never as sure a shot as some here thought. He seemed a lot more like Green than Hart over the course of his minor league career. As far as development goes that is a valid question. Even if the team drafts well they still have to get those guys to develop. I have no idea how to assess that though so I won't try. The argument between drafting and developing is somewhat a chicken or egg thing.

BTW wasn't trying to do a gottcha about naming only a couple guys. It's more that hyperbole runs rampant enough during bad stretches that we shouldn't add to them.

Glad you got a chuckle out of the name. Being the first to compliment it you will always hold a special place in my heart. Well...not a special place really. More one of off the main drag behind some dumpsters. But a permanent one none the less.

[Oxy]

Maybe we are just using the term differently. This is a pretty good definition of what I think replacement level is. http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/replacement-level/ I've always had problems with it. Not as a concept but of how it is used. It's used in a very vague way. It is a specific stat that Gives a baseline stat to combin with other stats to show actual performance. They may not be average but that doesn't mean they are worth no more than league minimum. If they are on your team you may want to upgrade from them. Which is what I personally think most people equate it to. But that desire to upgrade isn't the same as the player you have being totally useless.

 

If I read that article correctly, that is pretty much exactly what it is saying (or near league minimum)

 

The problem is that "replacement level" stats aren't really put up by "replacement level" talent. Most replacement level stats are put up by bench players who are either young averageish prospects who have worked their way all the way through the minors or veterans who usually have a couple tools that are league average (or better) and are used situationally to take advantage of those tools. Some other aspects of their game may be well below par, so they are relegated to spot duty.

[Thurston Fluff]

Oxy it's bad enough our team sucks right now. Don't get me started on the flaws of replacement level. Lets just say my biggest beef is it tends to be used as someone we feel should be replaced not who is below a certain calculated performance rate. For example I can say we need to replace Narveson if we want to compete for a division title. Saying he needs to be replaced is not the same as saying his is replacement level. When someone says our minor league guys project as bench players they are really saying they project as more than replacement level players. After all most bench players get more than league minimum.

[3and2Fastball]

this is such a BS 20/20 post. you're taking the successes of other players in other farm systems in completely different team structures and putting that into MKE's system, which DOESNT WORK. there is no way you can say that any player we passed up in the draft would have:

 

a.) signed with the brewers

b.) progressed and developed through the minors at the same/better rate than the team that drafted them

c.) would have had success at the major league level

d.) wouldnt have gotten injured/had a set back/been mismanaged by MiLB coaches/staff/trainers

 

Well yeah, OK I can accept that, though I did find it interesting (even fascinating) in a "what if" scenario. However, there were several players who turned out as good solid MLB contributers that the Brewers passed on to draft lesser players, in multiple years.

 

I don't think it is a stretch to say that our drafting has severely hurt the franchise

[Thurston Fluff]

I remember in the bad old Bando days the Brewers had the least number of their drafted players playing anywhere in the majors. That, to me, was solid evidence that our system was bad. Today I don't think that is the case. If someone knows for sure we could probably rate how well our drafting has really been.

[torts]

Drafted players on active roster:

Braun

Weeks

Gallardo

Hart

Lucroy

Fiers

Gamel

Green

Rogers

Schafer

Thornburg

Davis

Prince

[Thurston Fluff]

Off the top of my head you missed at least Hardy, Escobar, Cain and Brantley. I'm sure I missed some as well.

 

Add Lawrie to the list.

[RockCoCougars]

I think that the only one of these that you can truly second guess is Rogers over Weaver, but the only reason that Weaver was even available when the Brewers picked was that he was a Boras client asking for crazy money. I'm convinced that after the Brewers couldn't sign a few draft picks (Alex Fernandez, Kenny Henderson, etc.), they started to choose guys based in large part on signability as opposed to strictly talent once bonuses started skyrocketing in the late 80's early 90's. This seemed to carry over at least until the end of the Selig era.

[torts]

Off the top of my head you missed at least Hardy, Escobar, Cain and Brantley. I'm sure I missed some as well.

 

Add Lawrie to the list.

 

my list is of players currently on the roster that the brewers drafted, not all time.

[Thurston Fluff]

Off the top of my head you missed at least Hardy, Escobar, Cain and Brantley. I'm sure I missed some as well.

 

Add Lawrie to the list.

 

my list is of players currently on the roster that the brewers drafted, not all time.

 

Was your post in response to mine? If not I thought it was so ignore mine. If it was I meant players that are on any major league roster not just our major league roster. That way you can see what percent of our draft picks got to the majors in comparison to other teams. IF our team is good or bad at drafting and developing it should be representative in the number of overall players playing today. At least to some degree.

[Thurston Fluff]

Off the top of my head you missed at least Hardy, Escobar, Cain and Brantley. I'm sure I missed some as well.

 

Add Lawrie to the list.

 

my list is of players currently on the roster that the brewers drafted, not all time.

 

I meant players that are on any major league roster not just our major league roster. IF we count every player who was drafted yy the Brewers, on any active roster in the majors today, that should give us some idea of how well the Brewers drafted overall. Presumably the average team should have 25 players in the majors. If we have more then more teams have done worse. If we have less than more teams have done better.

[splitterpfj]

I'm sure the team that drafted Jeff Clement in 2005 is pretty upset about that right now too...every team could make a list like that one.

 

A much better point, perhaps...the Brewers DID draft Garciaparra, and he DID agree to sign...then the Brewers called back and tried to cut the signing bonus, after they had agreed to an amount. Nomar went to college instead, in his own words, "I never even called Milwaukee back."

[xisxisxis]

In 2002 we picked Prince Fielder

 

Drafting Weeks in 2003 was a pretty solid pick, even in retrospect. Who else should we have taken? Paul Maholm? Chad Cordero?

 

In 2005 we picked Ryan Braun

 

 

 

The thing is that in many drafts there isn't a lot of choice when the Brewers were drafting. In the 3 examples I've highlighted, only the Prince selection was the team making a pick that was a real choice. Prince was not ranked that high on most draft boards. In 2003, Weeks and Delmon Young were consensus top 2 with a gap between them and the rest of the field. Tampa Bay picked first and took Young so that left Weeks for the Brewers. Not many options for the Brewers. Sure, they could have picked someone else, but that would have been stupid considering the consensus at the time. In 2005 the brewers were targeting one of the stud 3B (Alex Gordon, Ryan Zimmerman, and Ryan Braun), the Royals and Nationals, picking before the Brewers, made the choice for the brewers by taking Gordon and Zimmerman, respectively. That turned out extremely well for the Brewers. If the Nats took Braun instead, we would have Zimmerman and maybe no playoff appearances to show for it.

 

Evaluating drafts is extremely difficult because what the other teams do is just as important as what your team does. Since 2000 I think only the prince pick was clearly the brewers going outside of the expected rankings and hitting a home run. The other drafts where they were free to pick have turned, almost exclusively, into disasters.

[homer]

I seem to recall the Braun pick being a bit of a reach....not like 20 picks or something but that he was projected to be a mid first rounder. Maybe I'm wrong though.

[patrickgpe]

i believe that you can only criticize a pick when you questioned it WHEN it happened. i though the brewers should have taken Bailey over Rogers but i can't argue too much which the picks that were made.

[Ennder]

Rogers is a hard one to judge because of all of the injuries. I didn't love the pick at the time but I think at best you can give it an incomplete grade in retrospect.

[danzig6767]

Rogers is a hard one to judge because of all of the injuries. I didn't love the pick at the time but I think at best you can give it an incomplete grade in retrospect.

 

The thing i've wondered about is why the Brewers for so long now have struggled to draft and develop more quality pitching, be it starters or bullpen arms?

 

I don't doubt that there is some luck factor with injuries, but man, it's been a problem for a long time now. For all of the picks used on pitchers during Melvin's tenure, we've got better production in the bullpen out of scrap heap pickups like Kolb, Turnbow, Axford, Henderson, Wise, Shouse, Loe, etc than arms from the farm system. In the rotation it's pretty much been just Sheets and Gallardo over a decade plus.

 

It would seem almost hard to draft so many pitchers over say the last 10 years and have so few make any sort of tangible impact.