Segura contract extension...

[fleehaw]

From MLBTR:

 

"As MLBTR's Charlie Wilmoth recently explained, however, the time is more ripe for an extension at this point. Though Segura has failed to sustain his torrid start to 2013, he still ended up being a 4 WAR player in his first season of full-time duty. Wilmoth opined that Segura might be worth a commitment of around $20-23MM on a five-year deal, if he sacrificed at least one year of free agency with a club option."

 

This sounds good to me.

[Roderick]

From MLBTR:

 

"As MLBTR's Charlie Wilmoth recently explained, however, the time is more ripe for an extension at this point. Though Segura has failed to sustain his torrid start to 2013, he still ended up being a 4 WAR player in his first season of full-time duty. Wilmoth opined that Segura might be worth a commitment of around $20-23MM on a five-year deal, if he sacrificed at least one year of free agency with a club option."

 

This sounds good to me.

 

A five year deal only gets him to the end of arbitration years. If the Brewers are going to do a deal now, they should be looking at least at six years with a team option for the seventh year - this is the point where the Brewers have the leverage. If you do a five year deal and later want to add years, then Segura has all the leverage as he already has enough money set aside if he gets a career-ending injury. If you don't have enough confidence that he is going to last 6-7 years, then you might as well just continue with him being year to year under your control.

[HiAndTight]

From MLBTR:

 

"As MLBTR's Charlie Wilmoth recently explained, however, the time is more ripe for an extension at this point. Though Segura has failed to sustain his torrid start to 2013, he still ended up being a 4 WAR player in his first season of full-time duty. Wilmoth opined that Segura might be worth a commitment of around $20-23MM on a five-year deal, if he sacrificed at least one year of free agency with a club option."

 

This sounds good to me.

 

A five year deal only gets him to the end of arbitration years. If the Brewers are going to do a deal now, they should be looking at least at six years with a team option for the seventh year - this is the point where the Brewers have the leverage. If you do a five year deal and later want to add years, then Segura has all the leverage as he already has enough money set aside if he gets a career-ending injury. If you don't have enough confidence that he is going to last 6-7 years, then you might as well just continue with him being year to year under your control.

 

Well he mentioned pretty clearly in there, "if he sacrificed one year of free agency with a club option." 5 years+club option-6 years.

[Roderick]

From MLBTR:

 

"As MLBTR's Charlie Wilmoth recently explained, however, the time is more ripe for an extension at this point. Though Segura has failed to sustain his torrid start to 2013, he still ended up being a 4 WAR player in his first season of full-time duty. Wilmoth opined that Segura might be worth a commitment of around $20-23MM on a five-year deal, if he sacrificed at least one year of free agency with a club option."

 

This sounds good to me.

 

A five year deal only gets him to the end of arbitration years. If the Brewers are going to do a deal now, they should be looking at least at six years with a team option for the seventh year - this is the point where the Brewers have the leverage. If you do a five year deal and later want to add years, then Segura has all the leverage as he already has enough money set aside if he gets a career-ending injury. If you don't have enough confidence that he is going to last 6-7 years, then you might as well just continue with him being year to year under your control.

 

Well he mentioned pretty clearly in there, "if he sacrificed one year of free agency with a club option." 5 years+club option-6 years.

 

Clear to you I guess. To me, why list a cost associated with a five year contract if he was really talking about a six year contract?

[HiAndTight]

 

Clear to you I guess. To me, why list a cost associated with a five year contract if he was really talking about a six year contract?

 

 

Because club options aren't guaranteed and you generally don't add in the value of the club option when talking about the terms of the deal. If we signed Segura to a 5/30 extension with an option year for 14 million for example, it's not reported as a 6 year 44 million dollar deal.

 

And it's not a 6 year contract, it's a 5 year contract in which he gives the Brewers the RIGHT to buy out what would have been his first year of free agency.

[HiAndTight]

Revisiting this....this is why you don't give a guy a franchise player multi-year extension based on 2 months.

 

Segura is down to a .786 OPS. Not bad, but a long, long ways from where he was in May.

 

Don't get me wrong, Segura is a very nice talent and will be here for a long time to come. But you don't assume a guy is an elite talent and rush to pay him based on 2 months. There is no way Segura has a higher price tag now than he did back then, so it pays to wait and see.

 

 

No, actually often times it costs a LOT to "wait and see." I think it's just as easy to turn around and say it's foolish to diminish him because he struggled the final two months of the season. This is a 23 year old kid who played more games at SS in this season than he had in his entire minor league career, he's a plus defender at SS, a 5-tool player who played winter ball and just wore down AND was dealing with an injury.

 

 

I don't think ANYONE expected him to continue to hit .330 or hit 25 HR's this early on in his career and with so little experience. But it doesn't take a great scout to watch players and actually use more than their month by month OPS to evaluate players in some cases. Segura played great defense most of this year, he hit the ball and he hit the ball hard, he has great speed, very good bat speed, a strong arm....there has to be SOME modicum of common sense projection, otherwise what? You only sign the guy after he's put up huge numbers and is established?

 

 

In any event, the insinuation that those of us who wanted the Brewers to look at an extension with him(as they did) did so only because of his stats through two months expecting him to maintain those numbers is kinda ridiculous.

 

 

Bottom line, I like the kid, I think he's going to be good, and I think having him under team control for another 6-7 years is in the Brewers best interest provided he is amenable to a reasonable extension. I think it makes a whole lot more sense than the post that's ALREADY talking about trading him as he gets into arbitration years.

[SoupTown]

If the youngster is a star and you go year by year... for the next five... are you not 500k 500k 4mill 8 mill 12 mill... so a star, a super star costs you 25 mill over 5 years. Then he leaves and you get a first round draft pick.

 

How does Segura counter that. I think it must indeed be the 5 year 20 mill and team option... say 8 mill. Still the management put up most of the risk. Why would you pay $20 mill (save $5 mill) just in case you can have a guy in the last year for 8 mill. If I am management, I am sticking to 5 years at 20 mill total, then TWO team options. Year by Year (if that is a no go) is just fine. And, in fact, Segura and his agent already chose that - yr by yr - so sobeit.

[Eye Black]

Segura contract extension discussion to recommence this Spring according to SB Nation article by Chris Cotillo.