Segura contract extension...

[monty57]

For what it's worth, I flipped to the Cubs game last night, and they were discussing this and said "the Brewers offered Segura a contract extension and he's turned it down." I don't know if they know this as a fact, or if they were just reading that from the MLBtraderumors.com article, but I got kind of sad when I heard them say that.

[Warning Track Power]

I can't imagine Segura turning down the contract extension. He would be a FA after the 2018 season currently, which means he would be a FA when he was 28 and entering his age 29 season. Giving himself an assurance of a big payday as well as giving the Brewers cost certainty to Segura's age 29 or age 30 season, depending on if the Brewers buy out one year or two years of FA, seems to make the most sense to all parties involved. Brewers gain a known dollar amount for budgeting, Segura gets one big payday at 29 or 30 where he will likely command an enormous salary, provided he continues down the current path.

 

I am very confident this will get done.

[monty57]

I can't imagine Segura turning down the contract extension. He would be a FA after the 2018 season currently, which means he would be a FA when he was 28 and entering his age 29 season. Giving himself an assurance of a big payday as well as giving the Brewers cost certainty to Segura's age 29 or age 30 season, depending on if the Brewers buy out one year or two years of FA, seems to make the most sense to all parties involved. Brewers gain a known dollar amount for budgeting, Segura gets one big payday at 29 or 30 where he will likely command an enormous salary, provided he continues down the current path.

 

I am very confident this will get done.

 

The Cub announcers were probably just talking out of their behinds, but...

 

I think most players (and agents) see the benefit of potentially giving up some money in order to gain certainty. There are, however, some players (and agents) that will forego the certainty, take on the risk, and shoot for top dollar. Fielder was one of these players, as are most Boras clients.

 

I hope Segura is in the former category, as I would love for him to be extended. If he is in the latter category, we can't consider him one of our "core" players to build around. He'll still be here for a number of years, but we'd have to assume that he's going to walk at the end of his arby years, so we treat him differently (don't do him any "favors" - like signing him to a guaranteed deal during his arby years - in hopes of changing his mind), and we'd need to get some young SS's in the system and then look to trade Segura when a young SS is ready.

[Warning Track Power]

@Monty:

 

I am guessing the same thing about the Cubs announcers and completely agree with the "not doing him any favors" idea should he not entertain the idea of an extension now. With Segura looking to possibly put up numbers that will dwarf anything Elvis Andrus (he of the 8 year $118 m extension) has done (Segura has already hit more HR in a season than Andrus), Segura and his agent may have unrealistic expectations about what an extension for him should look like.

 

Let's hope not.

[TooLiveBrew]

Segura and his agent may have unrealistic expectations about what an extension for him should look like.

 

Let's hope not.

I don't think that's necessarily accurate or fair. I think that they both realize that Jean has been arguably the best SS in the league so far this season (currently leads MLB in WAR (FanGraphs) at the position), and that he has quite a bit of leverage over the course of the next 5+ seasons.

 

I don't mean that I think the Brewers' offer isn't a good or fair one, but I think that it's a bit much to jump to the conclusion that Segura &/or his agent are being unreasonable. If anything, a contract offer this early from the Brewers might have simply caught them off-guard, and they're simply taking their time & considering all angles. I know I wouldn't want my agent to simply settle for the first contract extension I was ever offered. His agent was never quoted as saying they didn't like the offer, just that the contract talks were in extremely early stages.

[monty57]

I think WTP was doing a "what if" scenario, as he's said he wants an extension. He wasn't saying that Segura was being unrealistic, he was saying that there is a chance that he could be.

 

Really, in negotiating, there isn't an "unreasonable," there are simply goals and expectations. I hope this isn't the case, but if Segura decides he wants to go year-to-year so that he can reach free agency as soon as possible, then his agent could throw something like 8 years/$125MM out there, because they really don't want to sign. He's not being "unreasonable" with that offer, he's just saying "our plan is to go year-to-year. It'll take a lot to get us to change our mind."

 

The going trend is for good players to accept the extensions early in their career, because most of them understand the risk under the current pre-arby/arby system. I hope Segura and his agent are in this group. There is a good chance that they are. I just mentioned that the Cub announcers said that he turned the Brewers down, but I think the Cub announcers may have been reading too much into the MLBtraderumors article.

[logan82]

I think at this point it may be a good idea for Segura and his agent to wait till after the season. That has nothing to do with fair or unfair. Just letting Segura focus on the season and worry about it after the season is over.

[PrinceFielderx1]

What I'm afraid happened is that the Brewers offer must have been a low one like the Alcedes Escobar deal, which 1 month ago Segura was comparable to, but the Agent wisely decided to wait and now Segura is playing out of his mind both offensively and defensively, and the offer will need to be dramatically increased to about 30 million Guaranteed (Escobar was 10-15 million guaranteed) to really get Segura's agent to consider it. This is speculation on my part.

 

With this said, the proper way for the Brewers to have done this a month ago would be to be serious upfront propose a contract offer of between 25-30 million guaranteed, and extend him till age 32.

 

Now if Segura's agent and Segura decides to wait till after this season is over with, then I suspect that Segura will get a Castro type deal. Remember he's putting up these numbers as a 23 year old. I really hope the Brewers made a serious initial offer.

[HiAndTight]

@Monty:

 

I am guessing the same thing about the Cubs announcers and completely agree with the "not doing him any favors" idea should he not entertain the idea of an extension now. With Segura looking to possibly put up numbers that will dwarf anything Elvis Andrus (he of the 8 year $118 m extension) has done (Segura has already hit more HR in a season than Andrus), Segura and his agent may have unrealistic expectations about what an extension for him should look like.

 

Let's hope not.

 

 

I can't fathom Segura's agent thinking they're going to sign a contract that "dwarfs," Andrus when one player has less than half a year of service time and the other was entering arbitration and is already a 2 time AS, was the runner up for ROY at the age of 20, and was set to make more money in the following season than Segura will likely make over the next 3+ years.

 

Plus, the deal is more like a 4 year 62.5 million dollar deal as the way it's structured is pretty unique.

 

WE can't compare players who have 4.000 years of service time to a player who has less than .070 years of service time.

 

 

My guess is even if Segura ends the season with a batting average of .295 and falls off considerably the offer will still be on the table. However if he finishes the season with 30 HR's, 30 SB's and hits .310+, his agents will likely have added 5-6 million guaranteed money and 2-3 million a year to any option years that would be added.

 

Or perhaps they're hangup is the number of FA years that the Brewers want control over.

 

Hard to say, but if you want to cite a similar players situation, use Salvador Perez, Evan Longoria, Tulo, Braun....not someone who came into the league at 20, has 4 years in, is a multiple time AS and has been the leadoff hitter and defensive whiz on a two time World Series team.

 

 

 

Though frankly, I still believe that the Rangers end up trading Andrus well before his opt out years come up as Profar is just too good to not start at SS. Much like I think Hardy may be pushed out by Machado very soon. I think Machado and Profar are two players who will end up as equally impactful, talented players during their careers.

[HiAndTight]

i'm pretty sure longoria signed his deal within his first month in the majors

 

I believe it was after his second or third major league game.

 

Segura is no where near the level of players you mention and probably never will be. I think he'll be good but not good enough that a team like the Brewers should lock him up long term.

 

 

This isn't meant to be an "told you so," type post because I agreed at the time that he wasn't on the level of Tulo or Longo, but it's incredible how this thread has evolved. Someone at the bottom of page one suggested he MIGHT end up being a 10-15 HR a year hitter.

 

 

I posted this expecting him to fall off and he just hasn't. He's playing like Derek Jeter mentally at short, making the smart plays, ie, the little hidden ball trick on the pick off, the great tag, the bare handed throw and then the relay to try and catch Schafer(I believe it was) at 1st base...and other than the hidden ball trick where he alertly picked the ball up, knowing his was blocking the umps view, those are all plays from ONE game vs the Braves.

 

 

 

 

He just continues to exceed expectations to the point where it makes sense to wait until after this season to work on a long term deal with him because I just don't see how he can play worse.

 

He's having a better 1st full year than Braun did when you look at all aspects of his game.

[adambr2]

I can imagine that at this point, there may be a large discrepancy in the perceived value of Segura between him and his agent, and the team.

 

I do wonder if Segura is looking to get an extension based on an assumption of continued performance at his current level, and the team is somewhere between there and an assumption that he would perform near his expectations brought about by his minor league career.

 

I do not believe for a second that the Brewers "lowballed", I believe they are approaching the situation as they should. They cannot simply look at what he has done so far this year. Segura's rise has been dramatic. I see 3 possibilities:

 

1) He is performing at unsustainable high levels. I think this is most likely. Don't get me wrong. I think Segura is an .800 OPS shortstop with probably 15 HR power and a lot of speed. That's a very good player. But a .900 OPS? That's Tulo range.

 

2) He has just improved his game that dramatically in the last year. Obviously, this is the scenario we're hoping for. It can happen and has happened, but it's rare. He is still definitely young enough where it could be plausible that things just started really clicking for him in the last year. But the Brewers have to consider the possibility that this isn't the case and he will come down to very good, if not elite numbers.

 

3) He is using PED's. Now before any outcry, I absolutely do not believe that he is, though I no longer believe that any MLB player is beyond reproach. I am saying that there is precedent for this with past players who rise dramatically, particularly adding a lot of unexpected power, as he has hit more home runs by June this year than in any minor league season in his career. Again, I am in no way suggesting he is or think that he is, just trying to be fair enough to list every possible scenario.

[HiAndTight]

I can imagine that at this point, there may be a large discrepancy in the perceived value of Segura between him and his agent, and the team.

 

I do wonder if Segura is looking to get an extension based on an assumption of continued performance at his current level, and the team is somewhere between there and an assumption that he would perform near his expectations brought about by his minor league career.

 

I do not believe for a second that the Brewers "lowballed", I believe they are approaching the situation as they should. They cannot simply look at what he has done so far this year. Segura's rise has been dramatic. I see 3 possibilities:

 

1) He is performing at unsustainable high levels. I think this is most likely. Don't get me wrong. I think Segura is an .800 OPS shortstop with probably 15 HR power and a lot of speed. That's a very good player. But a .900 OPS? That's Tulo range.

 

2) He has just improved his game that dramatically in the last year. Obviously, this is the scenario we're hoping for. It can happen and has happened, but it's rare. He is still definitely young enough where it could be plausible that things just started really clicking for him in the last year. But the Brewers have to consider the possibility that this isn't the case and he will come down to very good, if not elite numbers.

 

3) He is using PED's. Now before any outcry, I absolutely do not believe that he is, though I no longer believe that any MLB player is beyond reproach. I am saying that there is precedent for this with past players who rise dramatically, particularly adding a lot of unexpected power, as he has hit more home runs by June this year than in any minor league season in his career. Again, I am in no way suggesting he is or think that he is, just trying to be fair enough to list every possible scenario.

 

 

1-I think both sides probably believe this to be the case. AT least when he was hitting .350-ish. But a .320 hitter who steals bases at a 90 pct clip, hits 20 HR and plays really good D at SS for the time being(I'm imagining a Arcia-Segura duo in about 5-6 years when Segura moves back to 2nd base, but that's just me).

 

Either way, he's certainly not going to get BETTER...unless he's a top 3-5 all time SS...better than Yount.

 

2-I think he's improved dramatically though not this dramatically, but I also think the Angels weren't using him correctly, and he had some injury problems. I still find the idea of Greinke scouting the players he was going to get traded for kinda funny if that's true.

 

3-I won't rule it out. I just can't anymore.

 

And mainly it's because I've gotten off my high horse and realized I'd take HGH, whatever if the difference was toiling around in the minor leagues or getting a break and busting out in the big leagues.

 

I don't believe it either, but it's possible.

 

 

At this point, I stand by my opening post. Wait until after this year and see where you're at. If he continues to hit like this, then you pay. 8 years 55 million, 3 years of FA in there, team options for 12.5 per year and a 6 million dollar buyout.

[PrinceFielderx1]

I don't see a deal less than Starlin Castro and it's not going to change. I see 60 million +.

[monty57]

I saw this quote from Scott Boras regarding his client Matt Harvey. Boras is not Segura's agent, but I thought this shows how "the other side" sometimes thinks.

 

"Usually the team will come to you, it is not up to the player to start negotiations. I would also say this, where the team wants to go in these situations and what the true value of the player is are not often that close."

 

Again, Boras is not Segura's agent, but since we heard the Brewers approached him, and we haven't heard anything since, there is a chance that he is perceiving himself in terms of what he's worth as a free agent and not considering the value of the guarantee. If he shares the opinion stated in the above quote, then I think the Brewers need to accept the decision, understand that his plan is to leave as a free agent, and plan accordingly.

 

I am not at all in favor of giving a pre-arby Segura a Castro-type deal. Castro got a $6MM signing bonus in his 2nd arby year (signed the deal in August), and got $5MM for his third arby year. You would need a lot of savings from there on out to make up for the $10MM overpay in the first two years. If Segura demands a deal like Castro's, I hope the Brewers go year-to-year and trade him when he's in his arby years.

 

The only reason teams would take the significant risk of signing a player long-term while he's in his pre-arby years is that they get a significant monetary discount in exchange for the guaranteed cash.

[HiAndTight]

I saw this quote from Scott Boras regarding his client Matt Harvey. Boras is not Segura's agent, but I thought this shows how "the other side" sometimes thinks.

 

"Usually the team will come to you, it is not up to the player to start negotiations. I would also say this, where the team wants to go in these situations and what the true value of the player is are not often that close."

 

Again, Boras is not Segura's agent, but since we heard the Brewers approached him, and we haven't heard anything since, there is a chance that he is perceiving himself in terms of what he's worth as a free agent and not considering the value of the guarantee. If he shares the opinion stated in the above quote, then I think the Brewers need to accept the decision, understand that his plan is to leave as a free agent, and plan accordingly.

 

I am not at all in favor of giving a pre-arby Segura a Castro-type deal. Castro got a $6MM signing bonus in his 2nd arby year (signed the deal in August), and got $5MM for his third arby year. You would need a lot of savings from there on out to make up for the $10MM overpay in the first two years. If Segura demands a deal like Castro's, I hope the Brewers go year-to-year and trade him when he's in his arby years.

 

The only reason teams would take the significant risk of signing a player long-term while he's in his pre-arby years is that they get a significant monetary discount in exchange for the guaranteed cash.

 

 

Yeah, Boras has the luxury of doing that with players like Harvey whereas Matt Harvey has six years to compile a whole lot of innings and a lot of pitches that could put him on Dr. Andrews table.

 

In any event, the Brewers have at least attempted to do what I hoped they would...they've approached him and tried to sign him. I believe it's the only way a team like the Brewers can be competitive long term. By signing young players with a very high probability of sustaining their success to deals with cost certainty. And for all the heat Melvin's taken, I think he's done a fantastic job with that.

Braun's deal may be looked at in a different light right now, but you can only go off the information you have at the time, and at the time that was a fantastic deal. The extra 5 years I don't even think was a mistake because at the time he looked like he was going to be a historic type player...a player who's value to the franchise goes beyond what he does on the field. That has changed. Bill Hall was coming off a big year and that deal didn't work out. Gallardo's for the most part has been a success. Lucroy's looks absurdly team friendly at this point. Gomez obviously has exceeded everyone's expectations except for his own.

 

I wonder if after the Brewers make some more moves and shed some more salary if they could come back to Segura with a new offer and offer up a nice big signing bonus. Say 10 million up front, and then 30 million over the next 6 years and two team options at 14 and 16 respectively. I'd be interested in hearing what the initial offer was and what Segura is looking for.

[adambr2]

Revisiting this....this is why you don't give a guy a franchise player multi-year extension based on 2 months.

 

Segura is down to a .786 OPS. Not bad, but a long, long ways from where he was in May.

 

Don't get me wrong, Segura is a very nice talent and will be here for a long time to come. But you don't assume a guy is an elite talent and rush to pay him based on 2 months. There is no way Segura has a higher price tag now than he did back then, so it pays to wait and see.

[reillymcshane]

Revisiting this....this is why you don't give a guy a franchise player multi-year extension based on 2 months.

 

Segura is down to a .786 OPS. Not bad, but a long, long ways from where he was in May.

 

Don't get me wrong, Segura is a very nice talent and will be here for a long time to come. But you don't assume a guy is an elite talent and rush to pay him based on 2 months. There is no way Segura has a higher price tag now than he did back then, so it pays to wait and see.

Segura is hitting .242 since the all-star break. He has a .265 OBP and a .601 OPS.

[TigerUppercut]

I saw this quote from Scott Boras regarding his client Matt Harvey. Boras is not Segura's agent, but I thought this shows how "the other side" sometimes thinks.

 

"Usually the team will come to you, it is not up to the player to start negotiations. I would also say this, where the team wants to go in these situations and what the true value of the player is are not often that close."

 

Again, Boras is not Segura's agent, but since we heard the Brewers approached him, and we haven't heard anything since, there is a chance that he is perceiving himself in terms of what he's worth as a free agent and not considering the value of the guarantee. If he shares the opinion stated in the above quote, then I think the Brewers need to accept the decision, understand that his plan is to leave as a free agent, and plan accordingly.

 

What do we all think Casey McGehee thinks about Borass's stance on early negotiations?

[RockCoCougars]

Segura has definitely come back down to earth. I think he's going to be a very good player, but maybe not someone that you want to lock in for big dollars when the team still has several more years of control regardless. Two cautionary tales would be Pat Listach and Castro from the Cubs.

[danzig6767]

I'd still give Segura an extension if the money was really team friendly.

[logan82]

Segura has definitely come back down to earth. I think he's going to be a very good player, but maybe not someone that you want to lock in for big dollars when the team still has several more years of control regardless. Two cautionary tales would be Pat Listach and Castro from the Cubs.

I thought Listach was doing a good job for the Cubs.

[adambr2]

Looks like they are (much more appropriately) going to approach this in the offseason.

 

A 7 year deal would buy out 2 FA years. Something like 7 years and $30-$35M would seem to be a pretty appropriate mix between financial security for Segura and a team friendly deal for the Brewers.

[jerichoholicninja]

Which Segura is he going to get paid as? The pre-break .849 OPS Jean or the post break .583 Segura?

[brewcrewdue80]

Which Segura is he going to get paid as? The pre-break .849 OPS Jean or the post break .583 Segura?

 

Well, there's no way you pay him for the .849OPS. I'd imagine paying him for the .775-.800OPS player he was in the minors though would be where they go in the talks.

[SoupTown]

I think if you have a .849 first half vs .583 second half, you do NOTHING (unless the guy wants security and gives a big home town discount). I am so tired of seeing bloated contracts where the money is wasted. I dont mind the system where the young guy gets paid for what he DID. Not what his agent (are you listening Gagne Boras) says he 'will do'.

 

Segura had his chance. His agent thought him a super star. Fine. Let him be that superstar for the next five year at leauge min for 2 years, then arbitration for three more.