Segura contract extension...

[monty57]

That would be a nice deal PFx1. Segura would be guaranteed $16.5MM, so he knows he's pretty well set for life no matter what happens. By accepting the risk of guaranteeing the $16.5MM, the Brewers get a discount and get some FA years. They'd probably have to put some guarantees into the option years (automatically exercise if he hits a set # of PAs), but I think it's a good template to work with.

 

And, at the end of the day, no matter how Segura plays, the whole guaranteed five years of the deal wouldn't cost much more than we would spend if we extend Hart for one more season, so the risk of guaranteeing those five years (as opposed to going year-to-year) is roughly the risk of signing an above average (but not great) FA for one year, or making a Qualified Offer to someone. The potential upside is far greater than that one-year deal.

[brewcrewdue80]

That Deal PFx1 would be great if could be worked out. Now we're talking 8years/31.5mil+9th at 8mil. But that's light for Segura's side isn't it?

 

Here's the real template to probably compare in contract talks: Starlin Castro:

Cubs signed him after Pre-Arb #2 Deal works like this:7 guaranteed years

5mil/5mil/6mil/7mil/9mil/10mil/11mil

8th year option @16mil with 1mil buyout.

 

So taking the pre-arb 1mil for his first 2years. Buyout next pre arb and all three arb years at a total of 23mil. Then buy out next three FA years at 30mil with the 4th year option.

 

And that is how I see Segura comparing to only a year older than Castro when he began. And this is the exact kind of deal I'd expect the Brewers to work out as it fits that whole 10mil/yr FA years they've used on Hart/Weeks.

 

Now it shows on BRef 2012-19 being 8years 60.57mil but my math comes to 53.57mil Maybe there's 7mil in incentives somewhere.

 

Or the club waits. Austin Jackson who was 2nd in ROY Has over 600PA all his Pre-Arb seasons and his 1st Arb year was settled at 3.5mil. I don't know what more you can ask from Jackson last season leading up to his 1st Arb year but he only got 3.5mil after his 3rd straight 5+WAR season. This means roughly 5mil for his first 4seasons. Vs. the Cubs going 11mil with Castro.

Year 5 is 6mil for Castro and Jackson is likely in the 6-9mil range for arb year 2. So at max he's still 3mil cheaper than Castro through 5years up to 6mil. Then we're at the final year and that's the 9-13mil range vs. Castro's 7mil. In the end, it's about equal for 6years.

In Castro's case he's at 30mil the next 3FA years. Where Jackson ends up for his 3FA years is the savings. I'd watch/wait for Jackson's contract to see where the value of extending Segura in to his FA years vs just going through Arb process as Det has done so thus far with Jackson. I think the template will be laid out with Jackson/Castro for the Brewers on Segura this offseason when Detroit either goes through with Arb or finally buys Jackson out and extends.

[PrinceFielderx1]

That would be a nice deal PFx1. Segura would be guaranteed $16.5MM, so he knows he's pretty well set for life no matter what happens. By accepting the risk of guaranteeing the $16.5MM, the Brewers get a discount and get some FA years. They'd probably have to put some guarantees into the option years (automatically exercise if he hits a set # of PAs), but I think it's a good template to work with.

 

And, at the end of the day, no matter how Segura plays, the whole guaranteed five years of the deal wouldn't cost much more than we would spend if we extend Hart for one more season, so the risk of guaranteeing those five years (as opposed to going year-to-year) is roughly the risk of signing an above average (but not great) FA for one year, or making a Qualified Offer to someone. The potential upside is far greater than that one-year deal.

 

To be completely honest this is just a template. I'd be down with making the second FA year guaranteed if Segura wanted more guaranteed money.

 

For the poster that said he compares close to Starlin Castro I actually agree in terms of ability and future production, but.. Here is where it's different, Castro at the time when he signed his deal in August of last year, basically had a year and a half under his belt with close to 390 hits over that time frame, with an OBP averaging .335, 65-80 RBI's each season,a ton of extra base hits, and he was stealing 20-25 bases. It was not a true pre arby deal with him. They signed him after we all knew what he was capable of. Late. They should have done it sooner, and could have saved 20 million.

 

Right when we are realizing what Segura is capable of, which is right now, that is the time to sign him. Not after he's already done it.

 

I'm saying that the Brewers need lock up Segura after only 214 AB's. Before he's broken out at the major league level. Before he knows what he's capable of, because once he breaks out you can just go ahead and add 20 million to my original proposal.

[TheCrew07]

You've convinced me to up my time table on this, I wanted to see if he was going to continue to improve at SS, but he's athletic enough and I like his approach at the plate enough that I don't care if he ultimately gets bumped to 2B, the contract would still be an incredible cost savings.

 

Count me in for an ASAP extension if he's willing. Since he's 22 now and has 5 years of team control remaining past this full season I'd like to offer him 6 years up front with 3 option years running the extension through his age 32 season if we so choose. That would give us a decade of team control during the prime of his career.

 

Worse case scenario he gets hurt and never plays again costing us about 24 mil with a buyout with the yearly cost escalating a little bit each year over 6 years (I think PFx1's numbers are tad light through the arby and first FA year). However he'd still be less dead money over a 6 year run than we carried in the past with washed up players like Hall, Suppan, Gagne, Hoffman, Wolf, Davis, Looper, and so on. Even in the most expensive years the dead money wouldn't handicap the team to the point of not making any moves.

 

Best case scenario he's a 4+ war player for the duration of the extension and we rake in huge cost savings like we have with Braun, well Braun's first extension anyway.

 

Even if he's only a 2-3 WAR player most of those seasons we still pull a bargain on the average cost of a marginal win. I'd much rather spend money on a young player like Segura than what we've done in the past.

 

edit. Oops, I just realized he's 23 and my math was bad, but I'd be looking to extend him to age 32 regardless.

[HiAndTight]

Not a huge fan of the idea at this point. Has anyone paid attention to the SS/2b injuries this year? In the years' past? I'd fully wait until in his first Arby year if not the offseason after to see where he stands at that point in buying out his final 2 arby years plus beyond his FA years. There's just too much injury risk for SS's for me to lock up a team controlled player prematurely in to a guaranteed contract.

If Segura would get hurt like Gamel's ACL out for a season injury. That would diminish a great amount of the value Segura could be seeking in any of the Arb years. Thus saving money there, that the idea of signing him today is supposed to be saving. It's because of the injury risk factors, I see no reason for the team to not wait these full 3Pre Arb years of playing time before considering extending him.

 

On a side note, I am glad to see Segura gaining a ton of fan recognition and he's proving more and more why I wanted him to bat #2 in the lineup over Weeks. 16% K per PA vs. 32% by Weeks and thus the coinciding much higher BA. Like I said, I want people On Base ahead of Braun/Rami/Hart rather than the base be empty.

 

 

Yeah, I'd like to echo what Monty has said. And if you have a star SS who can do everything pretty well and effectively and you let him get close to free agency, you're going to pay in 2 years what you could have paid him over 8 years.

 

Again, I understand the waiting a year, but the more I see him play, I don't see how you can ignore the talent the kid has. Again, it's the cumulative effect for me. Braun, Gallardo, Lucroy, Segura.....Hall. How much money did we save by buying out the FA years we did? Waiting until a guy is arbitration eligible, if Segura continues to perform well is going to mean he's going to be earning 6-7+ million dollars and the whole reason to sign an extension on his end is greatly minimized.

 

Lock up your young position players as soon as possible and work to develop as many power arms as you can. That's the only way I can see the Brewers are currently constructed NOT becoming a 65-75 win team in the next several years.

[HiAndTight]

You've convinced me to up my time table on this, I wanted to see if he was going to continue to improve at SS, but he's athletic enough and I like his approach at the plate enough that I don't care if he ultimately gets bumped to 2B, the contract would still be an incredible cost savings.

 

Count me in for an ASAP extension if he's willing. Since he's 22 now and has 5 years of team control remaining past this full season I'd like to offer him 6 years up front with 3 option years running the extension through his age 32 season if we so choose. That would give us a decade of team control during the prime of his career.

 

Worse case scenario he gets hurt and never plays again costing us about 24 mil with a buyout with the yearly cost escalating a little bit each year over 6 years (I think PFx1's numbers are tad light through the arby and first FA year). However he'd still be less dead money over a 6 year run than we carried in the past with washed up players like Hall, Suppan, Gagne, Hoffman, Wolf, Davis, Looper, and so on. Even in the most expensive years the dead money wouldn't handicap the team to the point of not making any moves.

Best case scenario he's a 4+ war player for the duration of the extension and we rake in huge cost savings like we have with Braun, well Braun's first extension anyway.

 

Even if he's only a 2-3 WAR player most of those seasons we still pull a bargain on the average cost of a marginal win. I'd much rather spend money on a young player like Segura than what we've done in the past.

 

edit. Oops, I just realized he's 23 and my math was bad, but I'd be looking to extend him to age 32 regardless.

 

 

Exactly. And if this is an organizational philosophy, then you have the chance to make that decision with several young players in mind. If Segura works out, but Lucroy doesn't, you still come out well ahead.

 

And if along the way an Orlando Arcia comes along, it's not real hard to trade talented SS who have the physical attributes that Segura does.

 

I fully expect him to hit .200 or worse for a long stretch this season, to struggle in the field, but just watching his natural ability, quick hands, feet, ability to hit for some power and range/arm at short I'm convinced he's going to be a core player for a long time.

[TooLiveBrew]

Again, I understand the waiting a year, but the more I see [segura] play, I don't see how you can ignore the talent the kid has.

At this point, any time I see someone question his defense, I want to bash my head against the wall. You don't find a better arm at SS in MLB, and his athleticism, glovework, and instincts are more than 'good enough.'

 

He's certainly still a work in progress at the plate, but he's showing all the ability/potential we read about him having as a minor leaguer. I would also tender him a long-term extension right now. Offer the kid a life-changing amount of money when he's set to earn roughly a cumulative $1.35M over the next three seasons.

[brewcrewdue80]

Give me a rough estimate what you believe his first 3FA years would cost today with an extension vs waiting til end of this season. til end of next season. til his 1st Arb year?

 

Again based on Castro comparison and you have to believe he's the exact type of mold Segura's agent would figure to work on:

 

It's 9,10,11mil his FA years. If the club waits through the end of next season meaning 2years service time. Is Segura really going to jump to something like 14/16/16 type of 3years buyout 3years FA? And if we're talking 10/11/12 vs 9/10/11 signing him today vs end of his 2nd season. You're looking at that 1mil difference being made up in the Pre-Arb/Arb years.

 

If the team can get Segura to sign a contract say 2014-2022 at 44-50mil then do so. That's the long term deal where I see money being saved.

[TheCrew07]

It's impossible to predict with any accuracy what Segura will be worth because we don't have a reasonable baseline to create that expectation.

 

We're talking more than 1-2 per million per year in savings, it doesn't appear that you have a very good grasp on the concept.

 

TB\KC saved at least $15 million over the length of the Shields contract including those FA options, Longoria's first extension will save them around $25 million and his 2nd extension doesn't have a year over $19 mil until 2022 and then drops down to $13 mil and a club buyout for $5 mil in 2023.

 

2013 would have Braun's final year of arby, he's being paid $8.5 million this year, the FA value of his last 2 seasons combined was $33.5 million per year (32.8 in 2011 and 34.5 in 2012). We will pay a little more than $45 million total for his first 8+ years (including 2007) in a Brewer uniform, with the market the way it is he would have made that much in his first 2 years of FA. He's being paid $10 mil for '14 and $12 mil for '15.

 

Again even if Segura turns to be a 2-3 WAR guy any extension signed this early before his value is established we still come out slightly ahead and if he becomes a 4+ WAR player then the contract becomes incredibly valuable with tremendous cost savings. That's why I only want to be locking up "core" players long-term, players that we'd want to build around. Solid players like a Weeks or a Hart, I'm fine going year to year with those guys but I want our core players locked up early as I'd like 9-10 years of team control through the players' prime and then I want to cut bait and move on to the next player.

 

edit. This is the thing, and I really didn't make it clear, but real big cost savings come in on the FA side where you're looking to buy out FA years at 60%-80% of the market value. Paying an extra $500K up front in those pre-arby years meaningless when you save so much money on the back end. I don't expect every deal to be like Braun's where we are likely paying below 50% for those FA years, but 70% is still tremendous cost savings, and of course the more the player is worth the more money you save as 70% of 20 mil is 14 mil, and so on. The closer a player gets to FA and setting an established value, the less likely you are to be able to get that kind of significant discount and while buying wins at 90% of their value is better than paying 100 or 110%, it's not as good as what could have been done with a little bit of foresight.

[logan82]

I think the scarcity of decent SS would make me lean more towards an extension. A 2 WAR guy at SS is harder to find than a 2 WAR guy at 1B or the outfield.

[PrinceFielderx1]

If you want to see a good comparison for a probable pre-arby deal for a SS like Segura look no further than Alcedes Escobar, Starlin Castro, and JJ Hardy. Alcedes Escobar (look at his pre arby salary's and his Arby salary's, and that's likely the range for Segura.) JJ Hardy, (look at his FA salary and that's likely what Segura will get max, Hardy has power and has a recent history of hitting 20-30 HR's, yet he's making only 7.5 million) Look at Starlin Castros contract and you will see what we will have to pay Segura in a year and a half from now, and compare that to if we signed him in the next month, before he knows what he's capable of, so that way he will sign the contract just because of the guaranteed millions of dollars, which is a lot more than what he's making right now pre-arby at $492K.)

 

Thecrew07, I'm going to disagree with you slightly. Not only will there be significant savings in his free agency years by doing a pre-arby deal, but also in his Arbitration years as well. Remember it's a pre arby deal.

[TheCrew07]

If he performs at a high level sure, but I'm not going to quibble over $1-2 mil per when we are already getting the arby discount off of FA cost, and we will pay more prior to arbitration than we would have otherwise, but again, who cares about that 500k?. I was working on a middle ground scenario and not what I "think" he might do.

 

I fully believe he's capable of being a 4 WAR player or better, I've said it multiple times on the MiLB forum prior to the season when we were discussing impact prospects over there. However for this sort of thing I'm not fond of working with absolutes and like I said earlier even with a very conservative projection for Segura we still save significant money over the course the contract.

 

The only down side is the guaranteed contract, but again the total dead money in any season of an absolute worst case scenario is no worse than what we've had in the past carrying replacement level pitching/hitting at market rates.

[vegasbrewcrew1993]

I would wait until the end of the year before making a decision on that. The Milwaukee Brewers don't have the luxury of being able to spend a lot of money on players. The team needs to take risks by signing talented young guys early in their careers. If the team had waited a few more years to sign Braun, it is likely he would have left. Braun could easily ask for $20 million a year. The Brewers can't really afford to pay one guy so much money while trying to field a competitive team. The team took a risk and signed him early. It all worked out pretty well. If the Crew thinks that Segura is going to be a great player, lock him up now. The team would be taking a risk paying him more than he is worth at the moment, but they would save a lot later on if he turns elite.

[brewcrewdue80]

Looking at the salaries for today and the next 4years for SS we're talking Tulo/Reyes as 16mil+ in pay SS. Andrus with that ridiculous contract that eventually pays him 15mil+. And then nothing really over 11mil.

In Tulo's case he got his contract extension on year 5 of service time. This is a 6+WAR SS who that close to FA maxxed out at 20mil. Segura is a different type of hitter no one thus far has pointed to him becoming a 25HR or more a season hitter.

 

From where I see currently, 12mil a year seems to be the high salary range for Segura in his FA years so long as he's a 4WAR or better player. If the team can sign him to where he's not taking on more than 7.5mil/yr through age 30 then that deal makes sense. I just don't think Segura can drastically raise his price now through next season on any contract signed through his age 30year. Aside from the top 3 at SS the big paydays aren't there. Even Jimmy Rollins maxxed out at 11mil in FA for age 33,34,35 So I'm looking at when we get to age 31/32/ and 33 seasons? If we sign today vs. after two seasons, I still don't see Segura being paid any higher than 10mil a year towards those final 3seasons. Agreeing to that long of a deal though, again injury risk. We're looking at what 4-8mil range of savings maybe vs the guaranteed 10mil costs? 1year out wipes out 2years of savings.

I think it's prudent to get a larger sample size of what kind of hitter Segura will be before determining the length and amount of a guranteed contract we'd sign.

[monty57]

In Tulo's case he got his contract extension on year 5 of service time.

 

IIRC, Tulo's contract tenure is similar to Braun's. He signed a deal early on and then re-worked that deal.

 

Otherwise, I agree with the sentiment of your post. Segura shouldn't be looked at in the same light as Tulo, who is an "elite" player. We should look at getting a savings vs what a "good" player would make. The savings would be because of the transferrance of risk by the Brewers guaranteeing the contract, so on a long-term deal, it should be fairly substantial.

[brewcrewdue80]

Guess what I'm getting to is if Segura's price for a SS projects high at 12mil. Looks around 9-10mil. Savings then become signing him to sorta what PFX's deal is with 7,7.5,8 being the end of his contract.

 

That price to me even up to the 10mil number if we don't do the long term contract for 7s-8. The 7-8mil/ 10mil for that matter come 2020 it's nothing special the club can't do. But, with that the case, then it's complete risk for Milw. Segura becomes injured/loses ability/ becomes a Replacement level player....The team loses on a contract that money-wise between Extreme or not wouldn't break the bank.

To me anything of a future projection of 12-15mil/yr for FA years makes the deal a wait and see for me. It's only if we cross that threshold of Segura is a 15mil+ player come time for FA that then makes sense to taking on the risk.

What it boils down to is "Good Players at SS aren't making over 10mil" Which makes it hard to see savings on something that already is affordable.

[adambr2]

Okay, this is hard for me to say, because I'm a huge Segura fan.

 

I think most of us, myself included, need to temper our expectations on him a bit. We are still talking about 3 weeks and 69 AB's. Please don't take that to mean that I don't think Segura is, or will be, a great player. I think we are seeing a different Segura. I think he has All-Star upside.

 

I just think that some people think we may have the next superstar on our hands, the next Tulo at SS, etc. etc. Fact is Segura is outperforming expectations at the moment. Now we may need to readjust expectations for him, but he's still outperforming them. If he turns out to be an .800 OPS shortstop with 30 steals and solid defense, I think we would all agree that that far exceeds our hopes of his first season for him when we traded for him. Even that kind of line would put him among the top 3-5 SS's in baseball.

 

I'd give him at least a full season at the MLB level before thinking about an extension when we really don't even need to worry about it for 6 years. In a case like his where there are multiple seasons left of cheap club control, I'd rather get a larger sample of what we're going to be paying for before paying for it.

[monty57]

Okay, this is hard for me to say, because I'm a huge Segura fan.

 

I think most of us, myself included, need to temper our expectations on him a bit. We are still talking about 3 weeks and 69 AB's. Please don't take that to mean that I don't think Segura is, or will be, a great player. I think we are seeing a different Segura. I think he has All-Star upside.

 

I just think that some people think we may have the next superstar on our hands, the next Tulo at SS, etc. etc. Fact is Segura is outperforming expectations at the moment. Now we may need to readjust expectations for him, but he's still outperforming them. If he turns out to be an .800 OPS shortstop with 30 steals and solid defense, I think we would all agree that that far exceeds our hopes of his first season for him when we traded for him. Even that kind of line would put him among the top 3-5 SS's in baseball.

 

I'd give him at least a full season at the MLB level before thinking about an extension when we really don't even need to worry about it for 6 years. In a case like his where there are multiple seasons left of cheap club control, I'd rather get a larger sample of what we're going to be paying for before paying for it.

 

I agree that any extension should be discussed this offseason and not right now, but the fact that Segura isn't in the Tulo/Braun category is why I don't think it would take 8 years / $40MM to extend him. He's not an elite player, but he and Peralta are by far the best young players we have. There's not even a close third. Barring something unforeseen happening, we aren't going to have many other pre-arby players who are worthy of an early extension for quite a while. Assuming he stays healthy and looks decent this year, if we can sign an extension which would buy out a couple of FA years and would give us a discount for assuming the risk, I'd do it.

[adambr2]

Okay, this is hard for me to say, because I'm a huge Segura fan.

 

I think most of us, myself included, need to temper our expectations on him a bit. We are still talking about 3 weeks and 69 AB's. Please don't take that to mean that I don't think Segura is, or will be, a great player. I think we are seeing a different Segura. I think he has All-Star upside.

 

I just think that some people think we may have the next superstar on our hands, the next Tulo at SS, etc. etc. Fact is Segura is outperforming expectations at the moment. Now we may need to readjust expectations for him, but he's still outperforming them. If he turns out to be an .800 OPS shortstop with 30 steals and solid defense, I think we would all agree that that far exceeds our hopes of his first season for him when we traded for him. Even that kind of line would put him among the top 3-5 SS's in baseball.

 

I'd give him at least a full season at the MLB level before thinking about an extension when we really don't even need to worry about it for 6 years. In a case like his where there are multiple seasons left of cheap club control, I'd rather get a larger sample of what we're going to be paying for before paying for it.

 

I agree that any extension should be discussed this offseason and not right now, but the fact that Segura isn't in the Tulo/Braun category is why I don't think it would take 8 years / $40MM to extend him. He's not an elite player, but he and Peralta are by far the best young players we have. There's not even a close third. Barring something unforeseen happening, we aren't going to have many other pre-arby players who are worthy of an early extension for quite a while. Assuming he stays healthy and looks decent this year, if we can sign an extension which would buy out a couple of FA years and would give us a discount for assuming the risk, I'd do it.

 

I agree. I have no problem discussing an extension in the offseason. Just not right this minute like some people think we should.

[HiAndTight]

Again, I understand the waiting a year, but the more I see [segura] play, I don't see how you can ignore the talent the kid has.

At this point, any time I see someone question his defense, I want to bash my head against the wall. You don't find a better arm at SS in MLB, and his athleticism, glovework, and instincts are more than 'good enough.'

 

He's certainly still a work in progress at the plate, but he's showing all the ability/potential we read about him having as a minor leaguer. I would also tender him a long-term extension right now. Offer the kid a life-changing amount of money when he's set to earn roughly a cumulative $1.35M over the next three seasons.

 

 

I agree. And it's getting more and more frustrating to hear the "lets just wait and temper our expectations, he's probably not going to maintain this level of play/this is a short sample size."

 

None of that changes my mind. I don't need every single I's dotted and T's crossed before I can come to the conclusion that he's a very talented hitter.

Plus, nobody is saying he's Tulo.

 

But lets also not act like he's just some guy that came up this year and all the sudden had a big start to the season. He's hit every and you can see his skills. Sometimes the eye test is actually...more important than the "2 years of sample size before discussing it," test.

 

When someone says we don't have to even worry about his free agency for 6 years, did we wait 6 years before we started to think about Prince Fielder becoming a FA? Gallardo? No, if he's a good player, you have to start thinking about trying to buy out FA years a LOT earlier than the year he becomes a FA and we're bidding against everyone else.

 

 

Bottom line, he could literally be hitting .250/.300/.325 right now and I'd absolutely be on board with signing him long term just from watching him play, his range, his approach, his bat speed, base running.

 

And this is a big side note, but with all the money flowing into baseball, what do you think a FA is going to get in 2019 as compared to today? What's the inflation going to be? Give this kid some cash in hand to take care of himself for the rest of his life, buy out two years at 10 or so million and an option year.

 

Again, not that he'll be Ryan Braun, but what would Braun be earning in the next two years had we not signed him? Probably a bit more than we'll end up paying for the first EIGHT years of his career.

[HiAndTight]

Okay, this is hard for me to say, because I'm a huge Segura fan.

 

I think most of us, myself included, need to temper our expectations on him a bit. We are still talking about 3 weeks and 69 AB's. Please don't take that to mean that I don't think Segura is, or will be, a great player. I think we are seeing a different Segura. I think he has All-Star upside.

 

I just think that some people think we may have the next superstar on our hands, the next Tulo at SS, etc. etc. Fact is Segura is outperforming expectations at the moment. Now we may need to readjust expectations for him, but he's still outperforming them. If he turns out to be an .800 OPS shortstop with 30 steals and solid defense, I think we would all agree that that far exceeds our hopes of his first season for him when we traded for him. Even that kind of line would put him among the top 3-5 SS's in baseball.

 

I'd give him at least a full season at the MLB level before thinking about an extension when we really don't even need to worry about it for 6 years. In a case like his where there are multiple seasons left of cheap club control, I'd rather get a larger sample of what we're going to be paying for before paying for it.

 

I agree that any extension should be discussed this offseason and not right now, but the fact that Segura isn't in the Tulo/Braun category is why I don't think it would take 8 years / $40MM to extend him. He's not an elite player, but he and Peralta are by far the best young players we have. There's not even a close third. Barring something unforeseen happening, we aren't going to have many other pre-arby players who are worthy of an early extension for quite a while. Assuming he stays healthy and looks decent this year, if we can sign an extension which would buy out a couple of FA years and would give us a discount for assuming the risk, I'd do it.

 

 

Just watching the way he goes about playing SS...the simple things, the first two outs of the Dodgers games...both seem insignificant, but both were very difficult plays that younger players tend to have trouble with.

 

 

After reading my post, I didn't intend for it to be nearly as bullish as it was. That said, I think people using the 8 year 40 million dollar figure and saying, "that's too much, he's not in the Braun, Longo, Tulo category," are overlooking just how absurdly team friendly those deals really were, and the money that is now flowing into the game.

 

Just take a 7 billion dollar TV deal from the Dodgers through the revenue sharing is going to provide the Brewers with a significant chunk of money. These new TV deals, the luxury tax revenue...smaller market teams are getting a bigger and bigger piece of the pie.

 

 

So I realize the natural inclination to say, "no, he's not as good as the other players who signed similar contracts," but those contracts were signed 6 years ago and are outdated.

 

And again, when I initially started this thread I was thinking about signing him NEXT year next off-season.

[monty57]

H&T, I think we're pretty much on the same page, and "arguing" the fine points. I think Segura is a fine player, and I actually wouldn't be surprised if at the end of their careers Segura ends up having as good or better a career than Tulo (because of injuries/missed time) and/or Castro (lack of drive holding back his physical capabilities). At this point, I don't think he's anywhere near as highly touted as either of them were at this point in their career, so he could probably be signed to a deal which will look like a complete steal if he lives up to his potential.

 

I've been saying since this offseason that we should look to extend Segura next offseason, and I'm not changing my mind either way because of his play over a few weeks. I don't think it's necessary to sign him right now, when he's had a really hot start, because he will very likely "come down to earth" at some point this season. I'm not really concerned either way (sign him now or this offseason), and really just hope we extend him early to a deal which will pretty much guarantee his financial future, while giving the Brewers a big discount and extra service time from a good young player.

[nate82]

From MLB trade rumors

 

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/05/brewers-offered-extension-to-jean-segura.html

[SoupTown]

that is one weird agent; he has been sitting on the offer for a month because he 'doesn't know' what is a good contract for Jean; because Segura is a Brewer for six years I hope he is the best of the best; but his agent should realise he is playing with Jean's livelihood; the guy is young enough to have TWO big paydays; the one he could have now, guaranteeing him for life; then the one around age 30 for his last five years

 

I hope Braun gets in his ear; and now that the offer it out (the fact of it) there will be chatter about it

[Eye Black]

It would be fascinating to see the Brewers initial offer to Segura. It would great to sign him to a team friendly deal, but I can understand why Segura and his agent would wait it out at this point. Below is the breakdown of Salvador Perez contract with the Royals at the beginning of last season. While the dollar figures in Segura's offer were likely higher, I envision the offer being structured somewhat similarly...

 

Year 1: $0.75M

Year 2: $1M

Year 3: $1.5M

Year 4: $1.75M

Year 5: $2M

Year 6: $3.75M - club option

Year 7: $5M - club option

Year 8: $6M - club option

$5M in unknown incentives

 

Obviously putting the majority of the money into the club option years and also including a large amount of incentive based pay would reduce much of the risk from the Brewers standpoint. Would also be great to have him secured throughout his 20's in a deal that would end just after his peak free agent years. I think Segura has likely already played his way past signing a deal this team friendly, but if the offer actually was a month ago than kudos to the Brewers for atleast trying.