Segura contract extension...

[HiAndTight]

Obviously with 6 years of control left, anything getting done this year would be pretty unlikely, but how soon would it be wise for the Brewers to try and give him a Longo/Tulo/Braun type deal? 8 years for 45 million with incentives and a team option? Obviously he's not in the same league as the aforementioned players as a prospect, and we're a week+ into the season, so I'm not basing this simply on his hot start, but at this point and based on the praise heaped upon him in ST'ing from other teams, I'd like to buy out a couple years as soon as possible and get cost certainty.

 

Again, I agree most will agree that this is premature, but I'd rather take the risk with players like Segura, Lucroy, Braun, Gallardo and potentially get burned by one or two of these long term deals(Hall) than try to sign them closer to free agency and pay 3-4 times what he could get now. The money saved from the three in that group that has signed is enormous(counting only Braun's initial deal).

 

Plus, with so little in the way of young minor league talent, I'd be nice to have a nucleus signed for the long term. And if Arcia ends up becoming what we hope, he's obviously capable of playing 2nd...

[pogokat]

i'm pretty sure longoria signed his deal within his first month in the majors

[JohnBriggs12]

Longo/Tulo/Braun were all high first round picks and sure things when they got to the majors. Segura's been a nice prospect but never quite in the class of those guys. He may turn out to be in their class, but let's wait until he's got a full season under his belt. Then by all means see if he can be locked up.

[jerichoholicninja]

i'm pretty sure longoria signed his deal within his first month in the majors

 

I believe it was after his second or third major league game.

 

Segura is no where near the level of players you mention and probably never will be. I think he'll be good but not good enough that a team like the Brewers should lock him up long term.

[pogokat]

Before you guys dismiss this, realize that Erick Aybar signed a 4 year deal for 35 million in the off season...

 

Segura profiles as similar, if not somewhat better...the team would probably benefit form approaching him immediately and trying to pay off all of or some of his arby years in advance...

 

However, I agree to some degree with the two previous posters in that they should at least run out this year, to make sure he will at least stick in the bigs

[Roderick]

I think you would be crazy to attempt an extension until after the 2014 season. Let's just see if he can keep his average up and stay healthy for two years in MLB. You would still have one very cheap pre-arby year to buyout as the incentive for Segura to sign the extension.

[adambr2]

He won't cost us a penny in baseball terms until 2016 and he can't be a free agent until 2019.

 

I like Segura a LOT -- huge fan. But he's still got a small sample size of great success and frankly it's a little more than anyone expected at this point. Let's see if he is the kind of star that you build a team around before we worry about locking him up for 2019 and beyond.

[Mass Haas]

The contract Alcides Escobar signed:

 

4 years/$10.5M (2012-15), plus 2016-17 club options

 

signed extension with Kansas City 3/15/12, replacing 1 year/$0.5195M deal signed 2/24/12

 

12:$1M, 13:$3M, 14:$3M, 15:$3M, 16:$5.25M club option ($0.5M buyout), 17:$6.5M club option ($0.5M buyout)

 

award bonuses

 

***

 

Escobar signed this after 2+ seasons, and even at the time, it seemed very team-friendly.

[HiAndTight]

i'm pretty sure longoria signed his deal within his first month in the majors

 

I believe it was after his second or third major league game.

 

Segura is no where near the level of players you mention and probably never will be. I think he'll be good but not good enough that a team like the Brewers should lock him up long term.

 

 

Of course he's not on the same level as Longoria, but I'm also taking into consideration when the contracts were signed.

 

And I don't believe he has to be on the same level as Ryan Braun or Evan Longoria for it to make sense to sign him early. He obviously has exceptional tools, and if he loses any range defensively, he can still move over to a premium position.

 

So while he will probably never be as good as those players, what's a good offensive and good defensive SS worth?

[Rock hard Brouhard]

I will admit I thought about an extension as well, but this is a guy who may not stick at shortstop, I would wait.

[monty57]

I'm with you H&T. Assuming he stays healthy and looks good this season, I'd look to lock him up next offseason, trying to buy out two FA years. I wouldn't compare him to the Braun, Tulo, Longoria deals. I'd compare him more to the Lucroy deal, or as TLB mentioned, the Escobar deal. If he signs a deal like Lucroy, he's set for life, but it isn't a huge risk for the Brewers... the whole deal costs about as much as one year of Weeks or Hart. I think it's a bigger risk to wait until he's in arby and then have to extend him for eight figures per year.

 

In order to stay relevant into the future, the Brewers need to do deals like this, and Segura and Peralta are really the only guys on the roster worthy of consideration at this point.

[HiAndTight]

I'm with you H&T. Assuming he stays healthy and looks good this season, I'd look to lock him up next offseason, trying to buy out two FA years. I wouldn't compare him to the Braun, Tulo, Longoria deals. I'd compare him more to the Lucroy deal, or as TLB mentioned, the Escobar deal. If he signs a deal like Lucroy, he's set for life, but it isn't a huge risk for the Brewers... the whole deal costs about as much as one year of Weeks or Hart. I think it's a bigger risk to wait until he's in arby and then have to extend him for eight figures per year.

 

In order to stay relevant into the future, the Brewers need to do deals like this, and Segura and Peralta are really the only guys on the roster worthy of consideration at this point.

 

 

The only thing is with the Lucroy deal, we save money, but we didn't buy out any free agent years I didn't think. I was thinking more along the lines of buying out a couple free agent years.

 

And yes, it was something I was just tossing around right now in preparation for next year. And I'm not really worried about him not sticking at shortstop, though I see no reason as of now that he wouldn't. In fact, if the Angels hadn't had him at SS in the minors, I doubt that prospect would even get brought up on here. He's shown he's got all the tools.

 

Again though, he's clearly not in the league of the three players I mentioned, but they all signed those deals a long time ago now, and locking up a very good offensive and defensive SS while buying out 3 FA years...I was just throwing out 8/45 as a jumping off point. I can't fathom he'd sign a Lucroy like deal if he has a good year this year(.275/.335/.430 with good defense and 10/20 which I think are all within reach). He signed a 5 year deal for like...10.5 million and with a team option for 5.5 million.

 

 

I definitely would NOT sign Peralta anytime soon. 6 years would be a long commitment to such a young power arm as it is. I think it just makes more sense to lock up your position players as early-as soon as your convinced they're deserving and see how it goes with the young arms.

[logan82]

Peralta and Sugura would be the ones I would consider as well. Not until after the season though. Both seem to have the tools but I would like to see at least a year of good results.

 

I wouldn't go with a Lucroy like deal either. They have an option on one of his FA years. I prefer to get at least one FA year guaranteed with an option on a second.

[monty57]

My bad. I thought they got some of Lucroy's FA years. I would definitely want to get an extra couple of years if we're assuming the contract risk.

[adambr2]

I will admit I thought about an extension as well, but this is a guy who may not stick at shortstop, I would wait.

 

Small sample size, but I haven't seen anything from Segura at the MLB level that makes me think he won't stick at shortstop.

[TooLiveBrew]

I will admit I thought about an extension as well, but this is a guy who may not stick at shortstop, I would wait.

 

Small sample size, but I haven't seen anything from Segura at the MLB level that makes me think he won't stick at shortstop.

He's a very good defensive SS right now, and will continue to be into his late 20s. After that I might start worrying about whether he'll still stick at SS.

[3and2Fastball]

Segura looks like someone with the potential to be a perennial All-Star, to me.

[HiAndTight]

Segura looks like someone with the potential to be a perennial All-Star, to me.

 

 

Yeah, he really does look advanced. This doesn't strike me as a....Yuni B type hot streak, just a hitter who really has a good understanding of the zone, a good amount of pop in his bat, speed and he's an aggressive and pretty smart baseball player. Certainly not lacking for speed.

 

 

To me it's a risk/reward scenario. If he turns out to be an average or below average SS. He only hits .250/.310/.385 with 20 SB's and 5-8 Hr's a year and an average defensive player.

 

Now the flip side, he's a solid .285 hitter who can push .300 in a given year, a .340-.350 OBP, plus defense, base running..etc...

 

If you were to give him 8 years and 45 million(some incentives to make it worth 50 with all-star games and such, perhaps super 2 status) and he only becomes that first player, are you really losing that much? Would it be that hard to trade him to a team in need of what would still be a young SS in 4 years barring any major injuries.

 

If he becomes the second player, you've got another player who's going to be one of the best steals in the game. Even if you land somewhere in the middle, for a average to above average defender out there(and with his arm and what I've seen so far, I absolutely lean toward the side of being a very good defender).

 

 

Which is why I brought it up. While he doesn't have the pedigree of the players I mentioned, I think what he's shown us last year and then this spring and to start the season makes this at least an interesting time to START talking about this as a potential move after this season.

 

Had we not moved very early on Braun, he probably would have signed a 10 year 250 million dollar deal this past off-season...not that this is news to anyone, but I've always believed you sign your best young position players as early as possible and buy out as many years of free agency as possible. Segura's the only one right now I can see doing this with.

[Eye Black]

Count me in the category that would like to see the team explore a contract extension with Segura next off-season. I am also curious if they will address any limits on the number of winter ball games they want him to play in the future. I know they weren't thrilled with the amount of baseball he played this past off-season. While they could do it regardless of his contract status, it seems like a new contract would provide an opportunity to ask him to limit the amount of baseball he plays outside of the MLB season.

[fondybrewfan]

Segura looks like a guy that could contend for a batting title someday and maybe hit 10-15 home runs and steal 20-30 bases.

 

I think you have to approach him this offseason if he continues to play as well as he has. Obviously he isnt going to hit .400 but with his speed he sure seems like a guy that could hit .320-330 with a .370 + OBP. That would be extremely valuable out of SS.

[brewcrewdue80]

Not a huge fan of the idea at this point. Has anyone paid attention to the SS/2b injuries this year? In the years' past? I'd fully wait until in his first Arby year if not the offseason after to see where he stands at that point in buying out his final 2 arby years plus beyond his FA years. There's just too much injury risk for SS's for me to lock up a team controlled player prematurely in to a guaranteed contract.

If Segura would get hurt like Gamel's ACL out for a season injury. That would diminish a great amount of the value Segura could be seeking in any of the Arb years. Thus saving money there, that the idea of signing him today is supposed to be saving. It's because of the injury risk factors, I see no reason for the team to not wait these full 3Pre Arb years of playing time before considering extending him.

 

On a side note, I am glad to see Segura gaining a ton of fan recognition and he's proving more and more why I wanted him to bat #2 in the lineup over Weeks. 16% K per PA vs. 32% by Weeks and thus the coinciding much higher BA. Like I said, I want people On Base ahead of Braun/Rami/Hart rather than the base be empty.

[monty57]

It's because of the injury risk factors, I see no reason for the team to not wait these full 3Pre Arb years of playing time before considering extending him.

 

It is precisely because of the risk transferrance from the player to the team that the team can get a significant discount by extending early. If the team does not get this discount, then there is no reason for the team to assume the risk. That's why I didn't think San Fran did well in the Posey extension... it appears they paid at least market rate while assuming all the risk. When assuming the risk, you have to get a significant discount.

 

Waiting until the player is in arby means you sign the player to a deal that is close to market value. That's not much different than signing a free agent. There's still a lot of risk, and now the player is a lot more expensive. Think of it this way: In the first couple of years, the player is making $400-500k. Not a bad salary, but if that player gets hurt, he is going to have to go out and find a job and work the rest of his life. How willing would you be to get the team to guarantee enough money that you should have a lifetime of financial stability? Many players (and agents) will jump at that chance, even if it means giving up a substantial amount of "potential money." As the player gets closer to free agency (A) he'll have some time under his belt that he's made $1MM+, so he's not as desparate, and (B) there is less risk (time) of getting injured prior to what should be your best chance at the biggest payday... Why take a lesser deal when I can play out this season and test the market?

 

As to injuries, anyone can get injured, and I'd bet older players get hurt easier than younger players. Plus, if a player could get hurt either way (signing a long-term deal when he's in pre-arby or when he's already in arby), then logically the injury hurts the team a lot more when the player signed a more expensive deal than it does when a player signed to a less expensive deal.

 

There are all different kinds of risk and they all have to be weighed. For better or worse, I think smaller market teams have to take the risk of signing pre-arby guys to inexpensive deals. It seems to be the only way they can have a large number of talented players and still maintain a sustainable payroll.

[TheCrew07]

Locking up players to long-term extensions prior to arby is really the only way small market clubs can guarantee they will control the player for 8+ years. The sooner you do it, the larger discount you get.

 

Waiting until arbitration you don't save yourself any risk and in fact may end up paying more per year in addition to still assuming all of the risk once the contract is signed.

 

James Shields' contract that TB signed him to is my ideal contract for pre-arby players, 3 option years and total contract length of 7-8 years assuming they've accrued a year or 2 of service time seems ideal. The idea should be to wrap up our time with a player early in their mid 30s and move on either by trading the player or letting him walk in FA. Who's going to say no to Shields at 9 mil for this year or 12 for next year? That's still below market rate for a 31 year old pitcher this season and a 32 year old pitcher next season. When was the last time we had any player in their 30s signed below market rates?

 

Just look at the total $ value below... 38 million for 7 years of his deal, we're spending 33 million for 3 of Lohse. We need to buy as many wins at a discounted rate as possible. The more money we spend near, at, or greater than market value, the less total wins we can buy. That's why these early extensions are so important, of course it stinks that the team has to assume all the risk but these contracts are really the only hole in the system that allow small market teams to lock-up their own star players and retain their rights more than 6-7 years depending on when they were called up.

 

James Shields rhp

4 years/$11.25M (2008-11), plus 2012-14 club options

 

4 years/$11.25M (2008-11), plus 2012-14 club options

• signed extension with Tampa Bay 1/23/08
  08:$1M, 09:$1.5M, 10:$2.5M, 11:$4.25M, 12:$7M club option ($2M buyout), 13:$9M club option ($1.5M buyout), 14:$12M club option ($1M buyout)
  value of 2012-14 club options may increase package to $38M
  performance bonuses based on innings pitched, starts, and Cy Young voting may increase package to $44M
  assignment bonus of $0.75M if traded
  Tampa Bay exercised $7M option for 2012 10/31/11
  2012 salary increased by $0.5M to $7.5M with top 5 finish in 2011 Cy Young vote
  2013 option increased by $1.25M to $10.25M with escalators
  2014 option increased to about $13.5M with escalators
  Tampa Bay exercised 2013 option at $10.25M 10/30/12
  acquired by Kansas City in trade from Tampa Bay 12/9/12
  

 

The simple math here should really speak for itself. Assuming Segura continues to get better as a SS and keeps hitting you absolutely look to lock him up long-term this off season. If a young SS like Arcia pans out then the team has a very good problem like TX has with Andrus and Profar. Segura would have a very reasonable contract and multiple years of team control left which would be very attractive on the trade market, or one of the players could move to 2B, or trade package could be built around Arcia...

 

My philosophy on this stuff is very simple, I want to buy as many wins as possible as far below market rate as possible and I want the Brewers to have as much flexibility of talent as possible. Not to mention all of the fringe benefits like cost certainty which make budgeting much easier and no possibility of arbitration hearings.

[brewcrewdue80]

My counter argument in this:

Elvis Andrus. Texas owned 5th year now at 4.8mil and #6 to be 6.5mil we'll say. All combined to total 15mil after 6years. So we're discussing buying Segura out now for 8years 45mil when pretty much what we would be doing is paying him differently over 8years but paying 15mil/year for year 7/8 owning after the initial 15mil over the first 6years.

 

And when we tier out like posted above in the Shields example you are basically flipping 1/1.5/2/3mil a year added in first 4years vs paying Segura the combined 6.5mil on year 7. Year 8 seems to be relatively near market value.

 

I just don't see the savings of 8years 45mil vs the process of the next 4-5years and then buying out/extending. And meanwhile, the club puts more money up front guaranteed with the risk of injury occurring that dimishes skills and in turn lower Segura's future value to begin with.

 

The team seems very willing to hand out 10-13mil/yr contracts to players they like. Read:Weeks,Hart,Gallardo,ARam and Lohse. And I'm fine with that occuring. To suggest paying out Segura early today would be suggesting to me that someone values Segura to be a 15+mil player Locked Down 7years from now. So then we're looking at him being a 18mil or more player.

 

Who believes that today? Right now Segura is worth Locked 7years from now 18mil no doubt 15mil+. That's a heck of a crystal ball you are looking through to know he can avoid injury and be that great a player 7 years from now.

 

See, my whole thought on this is 1 single year missed due to injury saves the club the 3mil. we're basically discussing saving over an 8year time frame. Arb year 1/2/3 wont be 2.4/4.8/6.5 like Andrus has progressed. and that 6.5 for year 6 is almost the entire avg per year on a 8 year 45mil. The team must let these 3years go by where Segura doesn't make over 1mil before committing to buy out/extend. Especially with where they stand obligation/payroll wise for these next 2+years.

[PrinceFielderx1]

I'd get this done ASAP. I'd do a Alcides Escobar type deal (4 years 10.5 + 2 option years/11-12 million combined) = 21 million, but I'd add 3-4 years too it. Something like this,

 

2013 - 0.5 million

2014 - 0.5 million

2015 - 2 million

2016 - 3 million

2017 - 4.5 million

2018 - 6 million (Guaranteed FA year)

2019 - 7.5 million (option year)

2020 - 7.5 million (option year)

2021 - 8 million (option year)

 

That means 5 arbitration years + 1 FA year is guaranteed at a total of 16.5 million. The final 3 years should be club option years at a total of 23 million. This could potentially be a grand total of 39.5 million. I believe that these salary figures for the Arby years is a discount. However, that's not necessarily what's important about this deal, but rather controlling an above average SS we'll into FA, at a potentially severe discount. To put this in perspective, JJ Hardy is making 7.5 million in FA, and I believe that Segura will hit for a much better average and his OBP will be much better, and he has speed. Just lacks power right now.

 

The reasoning behind this is as follows,

 

1.) Segura plays great defense. I've seen enough of him to know this already.

2.) He can hit, and has a good eye at the plate. Each game that goes by it's becoming more and more clear.

3.) This deal should buy out 4 years of FA. The Brewers finally have an above average SS, and they need to keep him for as long as they can afford to. They need to take advantage of this and lock him up. He plays a premium position.

4.) Should Segura start showing power, which it's likely in my opinion he will, then this contract is an out right steal, and we will control him till age 32. At a time when he might start losing speed, which would be one of his biggest tools.

5.) Should he not show power, we are only committed to 16.5, and the first 3 FA years are affordable, and could very much be worth it.

 

This is a fair deal and both party's will benefit.