Jonah Keri of Grantland NAILS it...

[Oxy]

 

The Brewers definitely took a win now approach to the team and it will hurt the long term. We have already felt the effects from bringing up the first wave of prospects a season too early and that has snowballed a bit lately. The big hit was when we didn't get a top pick from Sabathia or Sheets when we thought we would get one from each of them. That one single off season completely turned around the direction of the minor leagues.

 

We have, and we have won with that approach to the tune of two playoff appearances. Would anybody trade those two playoff appearances (and Segura, Hellweg, and Pena), for Brantley, LaPorta, Lawrie, Escobar, Cain, Odorizzi and Jeffries?

 

Despite all those big-market style trades, we have a very young pitching staff as well as a nice core at very important positions (Lucroy, Segura, maybe Gomez and of course Braun). We have holes in the bullpen and at the corner positions, which are exactly where I want there to be holes if we have to have holes. Cheap, productive players can be found for those positions, not so much for the pitching staff and up the middle positions. Meanwhile, we also have a team that is very competitive (injuries and the start to this season notwithstanding).

 

Had we drafted better the last 4 years things would be looking pretty good. We didn't, and that is on Melvin and company (but mostly on "company"...Melvin is responsible for the MLB roster and making do with what the scouting and development program gives him).

 

In short, if the last couple of draft classes don't make big jumps this year, we need an overhaul of our scouting department, not a change in GM.

[logan82]

The GM is not responsible for the scouting department.

[monty57]

if the last couple of draft classes don't make big jumps this year

 

Yes, it is a very pivitol year, and we need a number of guys to prove the scouts wrong (and prove Seid right). Making a bad decision on who to hire as Scouting Director is probably at least as big a blunder as making a bad trade or a bad free agent signing. It's really the lack of talent in the farm system that has me worried. And by lack of talent, I mean lack of difference makers. We have plenty of guys who will be utility players, bullpen arms and back-of-the-rotation starters. This, more than anything, is why I've been negative on the future recently. I don't hate Melvin, I don't think our MLB guys are a bunch of bums, and recent play at the MLB level doesn't change anything for me. We simply owe a lot of money to guys who are getting past their prime, and we don't have star talent coming up through the ranks to help out. That could lead to bad times. I hope it doesn't.

[Oxy]

if the last couple of draft classes don't make big jumps this year

 

Yes, it is a very pivitol year, and we need a number of guys to prove the scouts wrong (and prove Seid right). Making a bad decision on who to hire as Scouting Director is probably at least as big a blunder as making a bad trade or a bad free agent signing. It's really the lack of talent in the farm system that has me worried. And by lack of talent, I mean lack of difference makers. We have plenty of guys who will be utility players, bullpen arms and back-of-the-rotation starters. This, more than anything, is why I've been negative on the future recently. I don't hate Melvin, I don't think our MLB guys are a bunch of bums, and recent play at the MLB level doesn't change anything for me. We simply owe a lot of money to guys who are getting past their prime, and we don't have star talent coming up through the ranks to help out. That could lead to bad times. I hope it doesn't.

 

I'll agree with this, and that is on Melvin. At the same time, Melvin did well in hiring Jack Zdurenciek(sp? I butchered that) the previous scouting director. Still, that's not what draws most of the ire around BF.net toward Melvin, who seem like they'd rather stockpile marginal young talent rather than pull of trades like the Sabathia, Greinke, and Marcum deals that brought us to the playoffs. If Lawrie, Escobar, and Odorizzi turn into all-star players, then those deals might turn sour, but right now they are looking like average-ish MLB starters. LaPorta was once in their category as well and what's he doing now?

[xisxisxis]

Melvin did well in hiring Jack Zdurenciek(sp? I butchered that) the previous scouting director.

 

If you mean Dean Taylor, then yes he did an excellent job and arguably the only good he did as GM. Melvin kept Jack Z around for awhile though so he can't be a complete idiot...

[monty57]

if the last couple of draft classes don't make big jumps this year

 

Yes, it is a very pivitol year, and we need a number of guys to prove the scouts wrong (and prove Seid right). Making a bad decision on who to hire as Scouting Director is probably at least as big a blunder as making a bad trade or a bad free agent signing. It's really the lack of talent in the farm system that has me worried. And by lack of talent, I mean lack of difference makers. We have plenty of guys who will be utility players, bullpen arms and back-of-the-rotation starters. This, more than anything, is why I've been negative on the future recently. I don't hate Melvin, I don't think our MLB guys are a bunch of bums, and recent play at the MLB level doesn't change anything for me. We simply owe a lot of money to guys who are getting past their prime, and we don't have star talent coming up through the ranks to help out. That could lead to bad times. I hope it doesn't.

 

I'll agree with this, and that is on Melvin. At the same time, Melvin did well in hiring Jack Zdurenciek(sp? I butchered that) the previous scouting director. Still, that's not what draws most of the ire around BF.net toward Melvin, who seem like they'd rather stockpile marginal young talent rather than pull of trades like the Sabathia, Greinke, and Marcum deals that brought us to the playoffs. If Lawrie, Escobar, and Odorizzi turn into all-star players, then those deals might turn sour, but right now they are looking like average-ish MLB starters. LaPorta was once in their category as well and what's he doing now?

 

Actually, Dean Taylor hired Jack Z. Melvin kept him on board when he took over, which was a very good decision.

 

No one wants marginal talent, whether it be young or old. While we could go on and on about the minutia of what was or wasn't done, the reason I recently became more negative about the future has been because I looked at the system as a whole and didn't really like what I saw. Our MLB roster is aging and expensive, while the farm is ranked one of the worst in baseball by pretty much everyone who ranks farm systems. Whether we place blame on trades that were or were not made, bad draft picks, or whatever, that's where we are. This at a time when the rest of our division looks set up pretty nicely for the future, and a number of teams are getting mega-TV deals which will make it harder for a "small market" team to succeed without a top-ranked farm.

 

At the end of the day, much like the CEO of a corporation, the GM of a baseball team has to be held accountable for every aspect of the system. While I'm glad we finally made the playoffs and won some baseball, when looking back at what Melvin inherited (including Jack Z), it seems that it would've been nearly impossible not to make the playoffs at least once or twice, and we are now (to me) looking like we're on a downward slide. I don't want the Brewers to be bad, but I worry we're heading into a down period.

 

The bright side is that we do still have some talent at the MLB level, and we saw with the Greinke trade that it doesn't take a miracle to bring young talent back into a situation. It can be done, and I hope Melvin finds more ways to add more young talent to the system.

[Oxy]

Melvin did well in hiring Jack Zdurenciek(sp? I butchered that) the previous scouting director.

 

If you mean Dean Taylor, then yes he did an excellent job and arguably the only good he did as GM. Melvin kept Jack Z around for awhile though so he can't be a complete idiot...

 

Ha! I just assumed Melvin brought his guys with him. That doesn't give me confidence for a new hire, however.

[3and2Fastball]

I cannot complain about the Greinke trade from KC, because I think Jean Segura is a potential superstar

[Ennder]

Melvin did well in hiring Jack Zdurenciek(sp? I butchered that) the previous scouting director.

 

If you mean Dean Taylor, then yes he did an excellent job and arguably the only good he did as GM. Melvin kept Jack Z around for awhile though so he can't be a complete idiot...

 

Ha! I just assumed Melvin brought his guys with him. That doesn't give me confidence for a new hire, however.

 

 

To be fair Jack Z completely failed at drafting pitching. I can't walk away and say he did an amazing job of bringing in talent given the picks he had to work with. He didn't do a bad job mind you, just not amazing.

[Ennder]

We have, and we have won with that approach to the tune of two playoff appearances. Would anybody trade those two playoff appearances (and Segura, Hellweg, and Pena), for Brantley, LaPorta, Lawrie, Escobar, Cain, Odorizzi and Jeffries?

 

I don't think the two are connected though. If they had taken a slower approach with the prospects we still would have had the same competitive window. We would have taken longer to get attendance and it arguably could have delayed new ownership and to me the entire approach was aimed directly at boosting attendance to get the team sold. The entire reason we pushed all of that first wave of prospects was to rebuild the fan base and show that we could support 2M+ attendance year in and year out. The rest of it is really up to Mark A and how he wants the team built and all signs point to him pushing for a win now mentality even if it somewhat mortgages the future.

 

If I'm going to blame Melvin for anything it is going to be the weak benches and the bullpen more than anything else. It is not understanding what type of marginal player really helps a team and not so much obtaining full time starting players.

[Fear The Chorizo]

The problem with the Brewer minor league system is that they've been unable to develop young pitching - not only for the starting staff but even more importantly to have a steady stable of young, cost-controlled relief options to draw from instead of using valuable payroll space to take shots at veteran relievers. The lack of organizational pitching depth forces any decent minor league arm for the Brewers to be pigeon-holed into a starting pitcher role instead of figuring out if his stuff profiles better as a reliever. Mark Rogers comes to mind. Small market teams like the Rays and A's have pitching everywhere in their systems, so guys can fill roles based on their individual strengths instead of filling organizational holes.

[RockCoCougars]

For whatever reason, with two exceptions, the Brewers haven't been able to develop any pitching for the past twenty plus years. I may be forgetting someone, but it would be interesting to see what pitcher outside of Sheets and Gallardo has the most wins of a Brewer draftee from the past 20 drafts. Without knowing how to look this up, I'd guess D'Amico. It's hard to think of anyone else, and that's pathetic for a generation worth of drafting. At some point, you have to get past the injury excuses, etc. and take a long look at how this organization evaluates, drafts and develops pitching.

 

I also think that Seid needs to be squarely on the hot seat. It's really too soon to make a fair evaluation of what he has done, but it's not looking very good. Every bad draft is going to set this organization back.

[Ennder]

Again to be fair pitching is the strength of the system right now and we just put 2 pitchers into the rotation. Pitching has been a huge issue in the past but it seems like they have identified it and moved in the right direction. We have 3 self drafted pitchers in the rotation and another 2 or 3 that look like they will be major league quality in the high minors. It was really the Jack Z draft classes that completely lacked pitching talent. I don't really blame them that much since again they were aiming at rebuilding the fan base and the easiest way to do that is with big bats.