Jonah Keri of Grantland NAILS it...

[thebruce44]

Players win jobs in spring training on all teams, to suggest that making marginal roster choices based on spring training is some sort of flawed thing seems pretty insane.

 

Sure, back of the bullpen guys and the last man or two off the bench. But if you are telling 2 or 3 young pitchers that they way they get their arms warmed up for the season over the next 25 innings will determine if they make the majors you've got some serious front office issues. And that's the point that is being made.

[torts]

its all just speculation that they're not calling Morris up because of his contract clock, right? its never been mentioned by any member of the team, management or ownership, has it?

[MJLiverock]

Most of this argument is about the last man on the bench (or the 4th or 5th string 1B) and the last men in the bullpen so you kinda defeat yourself on that point.

[thebruce44]

Most of this argument is about the last man on the bench (or the 4th or 5th string 1B) and the last men in the bullpen so you kinda defeat yourself on that point.

 

There are two separate (though somewhat related) debates going on. I fail to see how my desire for them to manage a roster without putting two light hitting SSs at 1st base for over a month contradicts my desire for them not to use 25 meaningless innings to evaluate young pitching.

[TooLiveBrew]

How do you plan for injuries to 5 IF players? The plan was to have Bianchi and Green available. They got hurt, so we signed Yuni B. Before any decisions were made about the pitching staff, RR and Melvin probably wanted to see how guys looked in Spring Training. That didn't go so well, so we signed Lohse, then Narveson got hurt. It's absolutely absurd to "plan" to need to be 5 deep at every position on the field. Sheesh.

If this is 100% the case, then the Brewers have a massive problem in talent evaluation in the organization. There is absolutely no reason, beyond a case like Rogers's arm not being live, that a GM and manager should need Spring Training to evaluate the talent they have. They should have had a very solid idea coming into ST, and then used players' current form to help decide rotation order, etc.

 

As it stands, with regards to the pitching, the only plan seems to have been to throw mid-level money at the bullpen & hope everything else worked out. Earlier in the offseason when Edwin Jackson was available without the cost of losing a first-round pick, there were many posters here who advocated signing him in the interest of adding stability & depth to a young & inexperienced rotation. Melvin played the 'you don't want to get burned in FA' card at the time, & stuck to his guns that the talent the Brewers had in-house was good enough to rely on for 2013... and then wound up guaranteeing over $30m to a pitcher through his age-36 season (along with losing a first round pick) because it was clear the rotation needed more depth & stability. If Melvin needed ST to show him that his front office's talent evaluation of the pitching staff was wrong, then that's yet another indicator that it's time for the Brewers to move on & make some changes in the front office.

 

Isn't that really speculative?

 

Here's an alternative scenario:

Snipped your post just so the nested quotes weren't a massive wall of text.

 

I think you laid out perfectly how the offseason went, with regards to the rotation. The point of contention for me is still the waffling on whether or not they wanted to bring in someone like a Jackson/Lohse. For me, factoring in dollars & ages of those two guys, the price difference is negligible since each guy presents different (yet overall equal imo) risks.

 

There were just so many unknown elements about the potential rotation beyond basically Gallardo that it seemed to many people here to be a good idea early in the offseason to pursue Jackson. Added pitching depth is almost never a bad thing, and after Gallardo every single guy has his own very real question marks. The need for at least one more reliable arm was plainly evident heading into this past offseason, and the Brewers wound up losing a first round pick because they didn't appear (to me) to have a solid gameplan in this category. They just hoped what they already had would be enough & weren't proactive about it.

 

If the idea was that the in-house SP talent was good enough, then like I said initially, I think there's a problem in the current front office's ability to evaluate pitching talent. It's not new or groundbreaking criticism to say that building a pitching staff is not one of Melvin's strengths, and I believe this past offseason is a solid testament to that.

[Oxy]

It's not like they make sweeping evaluations of a player in spring training. It's more like "he's not quite ready and needs to tighten up a few things in the minors before we are ready to throw him in the mix as a part of a playoff caliber team"

 

Plus, those who don't believe that players should be rewarded for playing well (Khris Davis) or the opposite just don't really get what it is like to be human. If guys go in to Spring Training with the mentality that everything has already been decided and that there is nothing they can do good or bad that will change how the organization views them and their ability to contribute to the team, then you aren't exactly going to inspire guys to focus and play their best. Get real, here.

 

Also, I don't even think that Hunter Morris is a better hitter than Alex Gonzalez. Probably about the same in my mind.

[monty57]

If the idea was that the in-house SP talent was good enough, then like I said initially, I think there's a problem in the current front office's ability to evaluate pitching talent.

 

I think the original plan was to hold back on spending this offseason, to get through the payroll "hump" next year, after which we'd have a little payroll "breathing room." We could use this season as a testing ground for the MLB-inexperienced pitchers on their staff. If the stars aligned and everything went perfectly, they could squeak into the playoffs, but at least they'd be a fun team to watch with their exciting offense... the fans would buy into it.

 

Unfortunately, like Pavlov and his dog, they have trained the Brewer fans that every offseason they'll get a "treat" (big, multi-year free agent signing) after which they go out and buy tickets. The same fans who drooled over Fielder, Weeks, etc coming up through the ranks now say "we can't trust a guy with no experience when we're going for it." This offseason, with no big money deals, tickets weren't selling as quickly as they'd like, so they panicked and guaranteed $20MM/year for the next few seasons for two non-star players. Immediately after signing Lohse, ticket sales jumped, so the move worked for the Brewers' main goal, it just cost them the "breathing room" in their payroll. The Brewers aren't about making moves that make the most "baseball sense," they're about making moves that the fans will percieve as "going for it," so they'll buy tickets. All other revenue streams are maxed, so they need to keep fans coming through the gates.

[monty57]

Also, I don't even think that Hunter Morris is a better hitter than Alex Gonzalez. Probably about the same in my mind.

 

And he's 24 and considered by many to be our best, most polished hitting prospect. Speaks volumes for the farm system Melvin's built, doesn't it.

[TooLiveBrew]

It's not like they make sweeping evaluations of a player in spring training. It's more like "he's not quite ready and needs to tighten up a few things in the minors before we are ready to throw him in the mix as a part of a playoff caliber team"

I'm aware of this. My initial response was to the assumption/notion that Brewers management didn't want to make any SP decisions until after ST had started. In this instance, that reluctance to be proactive about the SP depth wound up costing the org. a first round pick. As you hint at, the team should already have a very good idea coming in about what they have, especially in terms of depth. I feel it was obvious from day one of this offseason that the pitching staff needed at least one more arm in the mold of a Jackson/Lohse (or better). I don't fault anyone for disagreeing with that stance, but I'm not just playing 20/20 hindsight here.

[I Heart Brewers]

The Brewers aren't about making moves that make the most "baseball sense," they're about making moves that the fans will percieve as "going for it," so they'll buy tickets. All other revenue streams are maxed, so they need to keep fans coming through the gates.

 

I don't disagree with you, but the question that popped into my mind is the reverse. If the casual fans were more baseball savvy a move like signing Lohse wouldn't get fans lined up like cattle to purchase tickets. That would change the behavior of the Brewers front office. Letting them know, we are okay with a down year or two if it means more sustainable and ultimately a better path towards a WS. And more money in the coffers. Win/win.

 

But is it the chicken or the egg? I think the responsibility is somewhat split. But casual fans aren't that invested so it won't happen. Unless you live in St. Louis where everyone is a baseball genius at birth.

[thebruce44]

Plus, those who don't believe that players should be rewarded for playing well (Khris Davis) or the opposite just don't really get what it is like to be human. If guys go in to Spring Training with the mentality that everything has already been decided and that there is nothing they can do good or bad that will change how the organization views them and their ability to contribute to the team, then you aren't exactly going to inspire guys to focus and play their best. Get real, here.

 

Or we understand exactly what its like to be a human in your low 20s. Young pitchers need a chance, especially when building up arm strength for the season. They shouldn't be looking over their shoulders or trying to over pitch for a few meaningless innings.

 

But yes, guys should also get a chance to show the club what they can do. Two different scenarios though and again, not really what we are talking about here.

[thebruce44]

I think you laid out perfectly how the offseason went, with regards to the rotation. The point of contention for me is still the waffling on whether or not they wanted to bring in someone like a Jackson/Lohse. For me, factoring in dollars & ages of those two guys, the price difference is negligible since each guy presents different (yet overall equal imo) risks.

 

There were just so many unknown elements about the potential rotation beyond basically Gallardo that it seemed to many people here to be a good idea early in the offseason to pursue Jackson. Added pitching depth is almost never a bad thing, and after Gallardo every single guy has his own very real question marks. The need for at least one more reliable arm was plainly evident heading into this past offseason, and the Brewers wound up losing a first round pick because they didn't appear (to me) to have a solid gameplan in this category. They just hoped what they already had would be enough & weren't proactive about it.

 

If the idea was that the in-house SP talent was good enough, then like I said initially, I think there's a problem in the current front office's ability to evaluate pitching talent. It's not new or groundbreaking criticism to say that building a pitching staff is not one of Melvin's strengths, and I believe this past offseason is a solid testament to that.

 

So can we all agree that this is another instance of management being too reactive instead of proactive and that this is an ongoing issue?

[Oxy]

Plus, those who don't believe that players should be rewarded for playing well (Khris Davis) or the opposite just don't really get what it is like to be human. If guys go in to Spring Training with the mentality that everything has already been decided and that there is nothing they can do good or bad that will change how the organization views them and their ability to contribute to the team, then you aren't exactly going to inspire guys to focus and play their best. Get real, here.

 

Or we understand exactly what its like to be a human in your low 20s. Young pitchers need a chance, especially when building up arm strength for the season. They shouldn't be looking over their shoulders or trying to over pitch for a few meaningless innings.

 

But yes, guys should also get a chance to show the club what they can do. Two different scenarios though and again, not really what we are talking about here.

 

You are assuming that the decisions are made because of of performance. It might have nothing to do with performance. Basically, Kranitz should be telling a guy what to work on and what he needs to do in order to be considered for a roster spot. Maybe the guy needs to relax and NOT over pitch, yet they don't listen and continually try to strike guys out. So they get sent down, etc. We don't know what goes into these decisions, so speculating about it and assuming that it is purely based on performance isn't right either.

[thebruce44]

Plus, those who don't believe that players should be rewarded for playing well (Khris Davis) or the opposite just don't really get what it is like to be human. If guys go in to Spring Training with the mentality that everything has already been decided and that there is nothing they can do good or bad that will change how the organization views them and their ability to contribute to the team, then you aren't exactly going to inspire guys to focus and play their best. Get real, here.

 

Or we understand exactly what its like to be a human in your low 20s. Young pitchers need a chance, especially when building up arm strength for the season. They shouldn't be looking over their shoulders or trying to over pitch for a few meaningless innings.

 

But yes, guys should also get a chance to show the club what they can do. Two different scenarios though and again, not really what we are talking about here.

 

You are assuming that the decisions are made because of of performance. It might have nothing to do with performance. Basically, Kranitz should be telling a guy what to work on and what he needs to do in order to be considered for a roster spot. Maybe the guy needs to relax and NOT over pitch, yet they don't listen and continually try to strike guys out. So they get sent down, etc. We don't know what goes into these decisions, so speculating about it and assuming that it is purely based on performance isn't right either.

 

I don't disagree with this, but I've sort of lost sight of what this has to do with the discussion here. Are you saying that we always need to leave room in the budget and have a FA ready to target so that if a guy doesn't do something he is asked in ST (like pitch to contact or work on his off speed stuff) he can be sent down? That seems pretty unrealistic.

[Oxy]

I don't disagree with this, but I've sort of lost sight of what this has to do with the discussion here. Are you saying that we always need to leave room in the budget and have a FA ready to target so that if a guy doesn't do something he is asked in ST (like pitch to contact or work on his off speed stuff) he can be sent down? That seems pretty unrealistic.

 

There is a lot of talk about how horribly mismanaged our roster was, and I just disagree. There's never an "always" (never a "never" either--ha). I think that all of the problems we have had this year are due to unforeseeable injuries and poor performance rather than a serious issue with planning. I will say that my stance changed slightly after Hart was put on the 60-day DL. That surprised me. I was under the impression that he would be back in early to mid-May, in which case a stop-gap 1B solution like AGonz would be fine with me. The fact that it will be longer than that makes the way the have done things a little more questionable, but still not the primary reason for our poor start (which is what the OP and Jonah Keri said)

[monty57]

The Brewers aren't about making moves that make the most "baseball sense," they're about making moves that the fans will percieve as "going for it," so they'll buy tickets. All other revenue streams are maxed, so they need to keep fans coming through the gates.

 

I don't disagree with you, but the question that popped into my mind is the reverse. If the casual fans were more baseball savvy a move like signing Lohse wouldn't get fans lined up like cattle to purchase tickets. That would change the behavior of the Brewers front office. Letting them know, we are okay with a down year or two if it means more sustainable and ultimately a better path towards a WS. And more money in the coffers. Win/win.

 

But is it the chicken or the egg? I think the responsibility is somewhat split. But casual fans aren't that invested so it won't happen. Unless you live in St. Louis where everyone is a baseball genius at birth.

 

Learned response (hence the Pavlov reference).

 

Wisconsin's a sports state, but it's really a football state. People can answer the most obscure Packer question, but don't follow the Brewers nearly as closely. That said, they really like going to sporting events, so the Brewers need to market ("train") them why they need to go to the games. The Brewers lost a lot of credibility at the end of the Selig era, because fans thought they were making token moves to look like they were trying, while they were lining their pockets with cash. That may or may not be true, but attendance suffered, averageing in the 13k-15k range in the mid-90's. http://www.baseball-almanac.com/teams/brewatte.shtml

 

The Brewer front office did a great job of marketing Fielder, Weeks, etc for years prior to their eventual ascension to the MLB roster, and the fans started showing up knowing that while the team wasn't good, better days were coming. By the time that "wave" of prospects arrived, fans were in an uproar, buying tickets to see those guys. We've had more than 2MM fans a year since 2004 (Attanasio bought the team in Sept 2004) even though we only won 67 games in 2004 and 56 & 68 games in 2002 & 2003. It wasn't winning games that brought fans out, it was that we had a defined strategy and the front office related that strategy to the fans. Fans were trained to come out to see the young guys play. Again, great job of marketing and letting the fans know your forward-looking strategy.

 

Then that group started winning, and attendance steadily climbed, reaching 3MM in 2008's playoff year. Off the playoff fever, over 3MM tickets were once again sold in 2009, but we only won 80 games. Attendance slipped below 3MM (to 2.7MM) for 2010 as the team struggled to 77 wins. Then the big shift came. No longer were we told to be excited for young prospects (they only bring in 2MM fans and the owners are used to the revenues from 3MM). Prospects are now best used to trade for big named guys (why not, it worked with CC and the fans loved it). The Brewers now begin training the fans to expect them to be "big players" in the market... we can't expect an "unproven" guy to do it when we can just spend money or prospects to buy "proven" talent. While this has kept attendance in the 2.7MM - 3MM range in recent years, it has come with some costs - the payroll and future guaranteed liabilities have increased substantially, and fans now get upset when any move is made that isn't what a "big player" would do, like cutting payroll without signing/trading for a big name.

 

No business can expect its customers to buy their product no matter what, which is why so much time, money and effort is spent on advertising. A big part of baseball marketing is letting the fans know your strategy. Even big market fans of the Cubs and Mets are buying into a "non-big market strategy" because it has been explained to them. I think the Brewers did a wonderful job in sparking fan interest after Dean Taylor changed their strategy, but over the years since, the Brewers have changed their model. They went from a good small market strategy to a big market strategy and now the fans are trained to expect the team to keep acting like a big market team. The obvious problem is that we don't play in a big market. It's not the fans' fault that they stopped buying tickets when it was announced that payroll was going to be cut. They've been trained that way. Since the Brewers really don't have a strategy to market, but they still wanted to spur ticket sales, they had to revert back to what they knew... spending money.

 

Since I mentioned in the first paragraph that fans lost interest in the Selig-era Brewers because they thought the owners were making token moves at the MLB level just to keep fans coming to games, while the owners were lining their pockets, the current regime needs to make sure they don't give the Milwaukee fans the same notion. If we see ticket sales drop enough (with future liabilities virtually guaranteeing no less than a $100MM payroll next year), we will see some salary dumps happen this season... it can't not happen. The Brewers need to find a way (even with the injuries) to keep fans coming to the park in droves. Wisconsin fans are faithful, but it kind of looks like the fan base is getting a bit restless at the moment.

 

Personally, I'd start telling the fans what the strategy of the team is not only for now, but for the foreseeable future. Let them know why they need to remain ardent Brewer fans even if injuries (or whatever) causes this to be a down year. Give them hope for the future. Of course, to do that you have to have a well-thought out plan reaching well into the future, and I'm not sure they do at the moment.

[Oxy]

{words}

 

Good post, Monty. This spring has been odd in that regard, with a lot of mixed messages. After the Greinke for Segura deal, Melvin was saying all off-season that we were kind of going to hold tight and see what the young guys could do. Then we signed Gonzalez, Betancourt, and Lohse, which pretty much negated that whole strategy. Still, if this team was healthy they would be pretty good, so I don't mind. If we continue to tank the season through July, then I hope we see some big trades, as only Braun and Gallardo would be untouchable--and dare I say that even those guys could be had for the right monster deal. We have A LOT of very tradable talent on the roster, so I think this is always in the back of Melvin's mind whenever he makes a signing or an extension. The Greinke deal proves that it can be done, and that was for only 2 months of Zack.

[logan82]

Braun Gallardo and Segura. I would probably switch teams if they traded Segura without getting a very good return.

[RobertR]

I agree that you don't want to put too much emphasis on Spring training performance, but at the same time there's value even if it's just monitoring velocity. Rogers is an example of why Spring training performance means something, because he clearly wasn't ready to go to start the season.

 

That said, I think the first base situation is different. Granted, at this point, the Brewers probably don't have anyone available to them that can hit like a first baseman. I don't like it, but I accept it. However, they do have options available to them that can field the position. The first base position probably hasn't cost them a game yet, but give it time, it will if it's allowed to fester like this for two months.

 

The Brewers can't really fix their pitching staff or hitting to any extent through personnel moves. Players have to work through their issues and get healthy. However, the Brewers can fix their first base defense immediately. They just refuse to do so.

[MNBrew]

Good post, Monty. This spring has been odd in that regard, with a lot of mixed messages. After the Greinke for Segura deal, Melvin was saying all off-season that we were kind of going to hold tight and see what the young guys could do. Then we signed Gonzalez, Betancourt, and Lohse, which pretty much negated that whole strategy. Still, if this team was healthy they would be pretty good, so I don't mind. If we continue to tank the season through July, then I hope we see some big trades, as only Braun and Gallardo would be untouchable--and dare I say that even those guys could be had for the right monster deal. We have A LOT of very tradable talent on the roster, so I think this is always in the back of Melvin's mind whenever he makes a signing or an extension. The Greinke deal proves that it can be done, and that was for only 2 months of Zack.

Mixed messages? I respectfully disagree. What if they didn't adapt their approach & marketing pitch (re: their moves, esp. w/ respect to the savvy fans like those here on BF.net)? Then everyone & their brother would be going out of their minds screaming for them to adjust to their new reality. This website would about just about blow up!

 

Think about it this way: They sure as heck didn't sign Gonzalez & Betancourt with the same mentality or intentions as signing Lohse, so for as much as I'm preferring your logic throughout this thread, Oxy, there were completely different factors at play:

 

- Lohse was needed upper-end SP. Price needed to drop before he was an option. "Need" element became pronounced when Fiers kept pitching like he did in September, Rogers couldn't pitch like a MLB pitcher, and Narveson simply wasn't ready for rigorous rotation work. The "plan" some folks are claiming didn't exist or was terribly poorly conceived was based on Fiers, Rogers, & Peralta all pitching mostly very well over their time on the Brewers last year -- a solid & promising enough body of work to justify counting on them for this year's rotation (given that they didn't totally screw it up in ST, which Rogers in particular has done). . . . Within all of this is a good Melvin move I believe is going completely unrecognized, & that's keeping (for now) guys like Thornburg, Burgos, & Hellweg in AAA to continue their development, which would be a pretty shrewd big-picture approach IMO as opposed to rushing 'em to the bigs -- and here I'm talking in a baseball development sense, nothing to do w/ service time, arby clocks, or finances.

 

- Gonzalez wasn't EVER intended as a flashy/splashy FA signing. He viewed as the "sage veteran role player" type who was eyed as the main middle IF reserve and offered a contract VERY early in FA with that in mind. It just took him 3 months to accept the offer b/c it took him that long to accept that no one else wanted him as their starter. If none of these injuries happened, Gonzalez would be on the team and merely filling in here & there with his Gold Glove defense and usually-nice-pop bat. . . . With a bench that would've been Maldonado, Green, Schaefer, & the 5th guy (Bianchi/Gindl/Davis/Lalli/whomever), Gonzalez would've been the ONLY proven veteran bench bat and would also be a nice veteran to back up & mentor core/stud young SS Segura. . . . Ultimately, signing Gonzalez never represented flawed logic or a diversion from the overall plan of going younger -- he was the one piece of veteran "roster balance."

 

- Betancourt, once enough others are healthy, is likely a very "disposable" part. He's NOT part of "the plan." He's emergency/desperation fill-in help while 5 other IF including 2 starters and crisis Plans B & C (Hart & Ramirez, plus Gamel & Green) are out with injuries. Yuni B was simply a better option during a depth crisis than Bobby Crosby or Donnie Murphy. The worst thing about signing Yuni B. is that everyone on this board can recite every last flaw of his on a moment's notice before the guy might ever have a chance to do anything right.

 

Back to one of the main points of this thread, however: Other than a dicey moment or maybe two, right now the roster composition isn't the problem. Plain & simple, at this point, the Brewers' pitching is what's killing 'em -- candidly honest & humble John Axford most glaringly!

[Ennder]

monty's posts have reached the point of just being absurd, I'm done responding to them.

[monty57]

monty's posts have reached the point of just being absurd, I'm done responding to them.

 

Thank you, because you tend to take one little snippet out of a post and rag on that snippet, even if it's out of context.

 

I assume from this comment after my previous post that you don't believe the Brewers' brass are worried about how fan perception will affect ticket sales, so I can't agree with you there. All business owners are worried about revenues and expenses, and I think it's a driving force for Attanasio.

 

I just have to think that the Lohse signing was almost certainly done at least in part to keep attendance up, and it worked. The day he signed, ticket sales spiked. Most here didn't seem to think that signing Lohse turned us into a playoff favorite, and even you have admitted that you didn't like giving a three-year deal to someone of Lohse's age. All off-season, Melvin said he didn't want to add a third year to an aging vet, but he did it. At least part of this change in mindset had to be because of the lackluster pre-orders they were seeing in ticket sales. I doubt it was because they had so much faith in Rogers and Narveson that they were shocked when they didn't pan out. They have more baseball-savvy than that.

 

As to my belief that they will need to dump salary if fans don't buy tickets... that's just common business sense. They base their budget (current and future) off of projected revenues and if the revenues aren't there, they have to cut expenses. A good portion of the team's revenues stem from fans buying tickets, and then spending money at the park once they get there. First, they project (guess at) ticket sales, then they see how pre-orders are coming in to see how close their projections were. If they're well below projections, the number crunchers start to get worried. If a few hundred thousand less fans buy tickets & come to the park, then they would see a significant revenue drop. The most logical way to cut expenses would be to trade away a big salary obligation.

 

Right now, even this early in the season, I've heard a number of ticket holders who are questioning whether they want to go to the games. This is knee-jerk, and hopefully will be alleviated with some players getting healthy and other players performing better. But, if the bad play continues, there will be a lot of empty seats, necessitating the number-crunchers to re-figure how much they are willing to spend.

 

As to why the team's performing poorly, I'm with you. Lots of injuries and bad pitching. As to the off-the-field "domino effects" from the bad play, I just try to look at it as a business owner. Facing the potential for declining revenue, the first step is to throw money at the problem (Lohse signing and Gomez extension). If that doesn't work, the second step is to circle the wagons and get defensive (trade away a big salary or two). Initially, it looked like step one worked, as sales jumped, but then the team started out poorly, so we'll have to see if that rebounds. I'm not saying they will "circle the wagons," I'm just saying they will do it if the poor play continues and people stop showing up at the park. It is far from a certainty that this will happen.

[xisxisxis]

monty's posts have reached the point of just being absurd, I'm done responding to them.

 

Monty is my new hero, not only for the content of his excellent posts, but anyone who can stop the endless condescending, my opinion is always right posts belongs in the BF.net hall of fame....

[torts]

brewers will go 18-144 this season, winning only monday games. calling it.

[DocLuna7]

brewers will go 18-144 this season, winning only monday games. calling it.

 

Didn't you start the optimism in all caps post last season? This cannot be a good omen.