The closer (or lack thereof) thread

[rluzinski]

Well, weird things obviously happen when humans are involved. Confidence and focus comes and goes for various reasons, and that can affect performance. This doesn't have anything to do with what announcers or the narrative says, it just has to do with my own personal experience.

 

Some people are more sensitive to subtle variations in these things than others--sometimes hypersensitive to the tune of wild speculation about what the player is thinking and worried about based on his facial expressions and body language. Others are completely numb and immune to it all and throw everything in the in the "luck" bin. As usual, it's probably somewhere in between.

 

I am not disputing the possibility that certain athlete's performances can be negatively impacted by the stress of a big moment. That would be an absurd stance to take. It would be impossible to prove it NEVER happens. I am suggesting that baseball fans are obsessed with constantly trying to attribute good and bad performances to a physiological response to strees. I'm also suggesting that none of us have any real chance of identifying when a bad performance was caused by a negative reaction to stress.

 

The idea that relievers PROVE that clutch is real because some can't pitch in high pressure situations is ridiculous. Who? When? How many times does it have to be pointed out that relievers were never even used that way until very recently.

 

And the idea that Axford's recent struggles are because because he can't handle the stress is laughable for the reason mentioned above.

[HiAndTight]

I am so interested in the sabre guys who say there is no such thing at clutch. And yet, we seemingly have a plethora of pitchers in MLB who can pitch in the 6yh and 7th inning. But if they need to throw in the 8th... it is 50/50 if they can perform. And in the 9th... no, no, no chance. The occasion is just too big for them.

 

Dare I ask... if there is no such thing as clutch... why cannot a reliever pitch to his ability in 'any' inning he must pitch. Should we blindfold them and tell them it is the 6th inning and we are down by 8 runs... so they can perform. And yet... clutch does not exist. How can all this contradictory information be so?

 

 

This debate has been answered to my satisfaction 100 times over after hearing Dennis Eckersley, Rollie Fingers, Curt Schilling, Randy Johnson and virtually every closer I've ever heard talk about pitching in the 9th inning as being different from pitching in any other inning. The different is there and the difference is painfully obvious.

 

Using the argument that it MUST not exist because Axford set a record for saves and then a couple years latter has struggled mightily in that role does NOT change the mind-set that there is more pressure pitching in the 9th and not every pitcher can do it effectively.

 

Baseball is a mental sport. If you blow a save, lose a game after your team went into the 9th inning with a lead, it's going to impact your confidence. Those things tend to spiral.

 

Axford's biggest problem has been his inability to throw his slider/curve(either or). Those are confidence pitches. The more fine you try to be with them, the more they'll flatten out, or you'll lose control over them, which is exactly what's happened.

 

 

But again, when nearly every single pitcher who's been in that situation says it's a very different, unique situation than pitching any other inning.

[danzig6767]

Well, weird things obviously happen when humans are involved. Confidence and focus comes and goes for various reasons, and that can affect performance. This doesn't have anything to do with what announcers or the narrative says, it just has to do with my own personal experience.

 

Some people are more sensitive to subtle variations in these things than others--sometimes hypersensitive to the tune of wild speculation about what the player is thinking and worried about based on his facial expressions and body language. Others are completely numb and immune to it all and throw everything in the in the "luck" bin. As usual, it's probably somewhere in between.

 

And the idea that Axford's recent struggles are because because he can't handle the stress is laughable for the reason mentioned above.

 

I don't think that would be laughable, all the while i'd also say that obviously i have no clue as to what runs through Axford's mind on the mound.

 

Looking at his time with the Brewers, he had pretty much only success in his first two seasons. Never went through a stretch where he blew multiple games in a row and thus having a very rough stretch potentially get in his head.

 

Again, i'm not Axford and only he knows if that brutal stretch he went through last year got in his head to the point that blowing so many games eventually caused him to either lose confidence on the mound or the stress say impacting his mechanics slightly.

 

I heard Curt Schilling the other day talking about Roy Halladay and Schilling mentioned how much confidence impacted him on the mound. He said something to the effect that a battle he had to overcome before he finally put everything together was being able shut negative thoughts out of his head when he wasn't pitching well because when he was thinking to much on the mound he'd struggle to consistently repeat his mechanics. He said eventually he got to a point where all he thought about on the mound was his pre-game preparation about the hitters and the catchers glove, even if he was getting hit. Then that he had to go through this all over again when he lost some of his velocity on the fastball and batters were hitting balls hard that they used to swing and miss on.

[chickinbrickin]

I think they need to find a way to get Olmsted in the pen. I always hear about how the Cardinals always have lots of relievers with electric stuff why can't the Brewers develop relief pitching? They do they just never really give young guys a shot. They have a ko machine sitting in Nashville that should be in the pen.

 

Olmsted had a rough first outing, but since then has pitched 7 innings giving up zero ER and has k'd 9.

[PrinceFielderx1]

I think they need to find a way to get Olmsted in the pen. I always hear about how the Cardinals always have lots of relievers with electric stuff why can't the Brewers develop relief pitching? They do they just never really give young guys a shot. They have a ko machine sitting in Nashville that should be in the pen.

 

Olmsted had a rough first outing, but since then has pitched 7 innings giving up zero ER and has k'd 9.

 

Olmsted to Milwaukee is inevitable. It's not a matter of if, but when. I pointed this out a few days ago that Olmsted should be called up. At some point there might be an injury to a relief pitcher, a relief pitcher might struggle, a trade will happen, and at that point he will be called up. Right now our bullpen has stabilized over the last few games, but I suspect that wont last and someone will go through a rough patch.

 

For the record, I truly believe that DM favors hard throwers like Olmsted who can hit mid-upper 90's and who have a long history with no control issues, who don't walk many and who strike out a ton. This is why I believe it's inevitable.

[chickinbrickin]

I'm with you. IMO he should be up already. The two lefties in the pen can't get lefties out so they have no real value. Gonzalez can go as far as I'm concerned. At least Gorgonzola has some value in long relief.

[TooLiveBrew]

For the record, I truly believe that DM favors hard throwers like Olmsted who can hit mid-upper 90's and who have a long history with no control issues, who don't walk many and who strike out a ton. This is why I believe it's inevitable.

I believe everyone in baseball favors the pitcher you just described, because he is Mariano Rivera in his prime.

[endaround]

 

For the record, I truly believe that DM favors hard throwers like Olmsted who can hit mid-upper 90's and who have a long history with no control issues, who don't walk many and who strike out a ton. This is why I believe it's inevitable.

 

Actually Melvin tends to take hard throwers and hope they get over their control issues. Hence Turnbow, Axford to some extent (injury had a lot to do with his issues), and Henderson. The guys that don't have control issues are really hard to find.

[PrinceFielderx1]

For the record, I truly believe that DM favors hard throwers like Olmsted who can hit mid-upper 90's and who have a long history with no control issues, who don't walk many and who strike out a ton. This is why I believe it's inevitable.

I believe everyone in baseball favors the pitcher you just described, because he is Mariano Rivera in his prime.

 

That last part was funny. Anyways, you are correct that everyone in baseball favors that type of pitcher, which is why I believe Olmsted is favored above Mike Gonzalez, Gorzelanny, and Bradenhop.

[PrinceFielderx1]

 

For the record, I truly believe that DM favors hard throwers like Olmsted who can hit mid-upper 90's and who have a long history with no control issues, who don't walk many and who strike out a ton. This is why I believe it's inevitable.

 

Actually Melvin tends to take hard throwers and hope they get over their control issues. Hence Turnbow, Axford to some extent (injury had a lot to do with his issues), and Henderson. The guys that don't have control issues are really hard to find.

 

Based on history you are correct. This is why since we have found one that can throw strikes he must be favored.

[Oxy]

Everything is going according to plan. Henderson has looked awfully good. We could go from having the worst bullpen in the league (results wise) to one of the better bullpens in the league very quickly. This team could be pretty good.

[brewcrewdue80]

Well, so long as Henderson keeps converting, this thread is complete currently.