Baseball Instinct's Brewers Top 21 Prospect List

[Mass Haas]

These guys do a thorough job - here you go, including a Zach Quintana sighting

[Noche]

Yosmer Leal

 

Who?

[Mass Haas]

Yosmer Leal

 

Who?

 

Teenage Venezuelan pitcher

[splitterpfj]

I certainly hope they're right on Roache, but ranking him at #3 in the system, and saying there is no question he is the best position player in the system, despite not having made his pro debut, is not something I can agree with.

 

They may very well be right, and it's exactly what we should all be rooting for, but there's a player in the system who has been an MVP at AA, for instance, I just think it's too soon to write Roache in as the best we've got.

[ramssuperbowl1999]

I certainly hope they're right on Roache, but ranking him at #3 in the system, and saying there is no question he is the best position player in the system, despite not having made his pro debut, is not something I can agree with.

 

They may very well be right, and it's exactly what we should all be rooting for, but there's a player in the system who has been an MVP at AA, for instance, I just think it's too soon to write Roache in as the best we've got.

Morris is (likely, it's not final yet) going to be rated the 5th best hitting prospect in the system on my list.

[trwi7]

but there's a player in the system who has been an MVP at AA, for instance, I just think it's too soon to write Roache in as the best we've got.

 

That same player could barely crack a .300 OBP coming from college in his first two seasons.

[ramssuperbowl1999]

but there's a player in the system who has been an MVP at AA, for instance, I just think it's too soon to write Roache in as the best we've got.

 

That same player could barely crack a .300 OBP coming from college in his first two seasons.

That's not even the whole issue (though it does matter). The same guy plays the easiest position in the NL, is a below-average defender, is a terrible baserunner, etc. etc.

 

All that adds up to something like -1.5 to -2 WAR per year (-7.5 runs position, -3-5 runs baserunning, and -3 to -7 runs on defense) . So if Morris is league average hitter, he's actually a near replacement level player. The takeaway lesson - you need to hit a LOT to be a great 1B prospect. How sure are we that Morris can hit? His tools aren't great, he's not particularly young, and he's so walk adverse that he has to hit .300 to support a good OBP.

 

Give me a guy like Roache, who can be a very good defender in LF, OBP more, and hit for similar power. Give me a guy like Coulter, who isn't just interesting with the bat but also may end up playing the most valuable offensive position. Etc.

[trwi7]

but there's a player in the system who has been an MVP at AA, for instance, I just think it's too soon to write Roache in as the best we've got.

 

That same player could barely crack a .300 OBP coming from college in his first two seasons.

That's not even the whole issue (though it does matter). The same guy plays the easiest position in the NL, is a below-average defender, is a terrible baserunner, etc. etc.

 

All that adds up to something like -1.5 to -2 WAR per year (-7.5 runs position, -3-5 runs baserunning, and -3 to -7 runs on defense) . So if Morris is league average hitter, he's actually a near replacement level player. The takeaway lesson - you need to hit a LOT to be a great 1B prospect. How sure are we that Morris can hit? His tools aren't great, he's not particularly young, and he's so walk adverse that he has to hit .300 to support a good OBP.

 

Give me a guy like Roache, who can be a very good defender in LF, OBP more, and hit for similar power. Give me a guy like Coulter, who isn't just interesting with the bat but also may end up playing the most valuable offensive position. Etc.

 

Yeah, that too. I was just going to OBP because that was just the easiest argument I could make. I'd like Morris a whole lot more if he hit like Khris Davis has since turning pro (.294/.400/.513) but he's hit more like Brad Nelson with less OBP and more power.

[splitterpfj]

My point is not so much to promote Morris, although I do think he deserves more respect than he's getting, my point is, Roache hasn't seen a pitch yet.

 

Obviously, the Brewers are betting on Roache being a big deal, and that would put a huge smile on my face, but there's no way I'm going to rate a kid who hasn't played yet over a guy who just an excellent season at the AA level. By the end of this season, sure, maybe, but based on zero pro games, I just can't do that.

[ramssuperbowl1999]

My point is not so much to promote Morris, although I do think he deserves more respect than he's getting, my point is, Roache hasn't seen a pitch yet.

 

Obviously, the Brewers are betting on Roache being a big deal, and that would put a huge smile on my face, but there's no way I'm going to rate a kid who hasn't played yet over a guy who just an excellent season at the AA level. By the end of this season, sure, maybe, but based on zero pro games, I just can't do that.

That's just silly. If Roache is a better baseball player, he should be ranked higher.

 

To make it obvious - would you have had Stephen Strasburg below a different Nats prospect after they signed him simply because he hadn't thrown a pro pitch? Of course not. Because it was painfully obvious that Strasburg was better.

 

While not as blatant, the same thing applies here. Roache's tools and upside outweigh the fact that Morris is closer to the majors.

[TheCrew07]

I'm not sure where the venom for Morris' defense is coming from, he's worked pretty hard on it. By all recent accounts I've read he's a league average guy at the next level.

 

2012 BA Best Tools

 

I also agree with splitterpfj's premise that I'd like to see a guy perform a little bit before I start putting him in the top 5 or even top 10, unless I'm that "sure". For example, based on upside I think Arcia's omission from that list is ridiculous, but I'm also willing to acknowledge the possibility that I just like him more than everyone else.

 

I'd like to see how the young men perform in full season ball before I start trying to create a pecking order. The upside in those A ballers is tremendous, but to be our "best" prospect player also has to perform at a high level.

 

I don't think there's any doubt that Roache has the best power potential in the system, we'll just have to see how it all shakes out. Then again 3 years ago I was certain Walla was going to be at least a 15 HR/year guy in the minors.

[splitterpfj]

You're right, rams, that is just silly, you just used Stephen Strasburg to make a point about Victor Roache.

 

Come on now, I haven't said anything against Roache, other than he hasn't played a single game yet, so I'm not willing to declare him the best position player the Brewers' system has. He's a power hitter coming off a significant injury, I love the pick, and I haven't seen a reason to think he won't have a great career in the big leagues. The problem is, I haven't seen anything to make me think he WILL have that career either, because he hasn't even played yet. Without the injury, even without one AB...no problem, he's my pick for the top of this list, but that's not the case here, that wasn't a groin pull, that was the type of injury that has the potential to wreck a career.

 

I would consider a guy like Strasburg in a different light than most other draft picks, yes, but if Strasburg had been drafted following, for instance, a shoulder injury that had shut him down for basically a full year when it came time to rank prospects...I absolutely would have waited to see him pitch before I assumed anything.

[82brewcrew11]

This really just comes down to how any given individual prefers to evaluate talent. I, like others, prefer to weight potential more heavily and would tend to agree that Roache is a better prospect than Morris. However, there is also some merit to a guy actually playing before you assign a value. From the dozens of prospect rankings I have seen, most pundits agree that they need to see something from Roache before they are willing to rank him very high.

[ramssuperbowl1999]

You're right, rams, that is just silly, you just used Stephen Strasburg to make a point about Victor Roache.

You've missed the point. I'm not even commenting on the prospects, I'm using an obvious example to illustrate that having a rule where you simply won't rank a guy number 1 in the system until he plays in the minors is silly.

 

Come on now, I haven't said anything against Roache, other than he hasn't played a single game yet, so I'm not willing to declare him the best position player the Brewers' system has. He's a power hitter coming off a significant injury, I love the pick, and I haven't seen a reason to think he won't have a great career in the big leagues. The problem is, I haven't seen anything to make me think he WILL have that career either, because he hasn't even played yet. Without the injury, even without one AB...no problem, he's my pick for the top of this list, but that's not the case here, that wasn't a groin pull, that was the type of injury that has the potential to wreck a career.

"The problem is, I haven't seen anything to make me think he WILL have that career either, because he hasn't even played yet."

 

Yes he has, and yes you have. He's played in college, he's played in the cape cod league, he's played in instructs and he's played in spring training. For some of those leagues, we have stats and scouting reports to work with. For others, we just have scouting reports. Just because he hasn't played in the minor leagues yet doesn't mean we don't have a decent idea of how good a baseball player he is.

 

And you obviously even have a decent idea of how good a player he is, since you 'loved the pick' when they drafted him. Put another way, if you didn't already know he was a good player, how could you like the pick?

 

Not only that, but we also know his wrist is healthy based on reports from here and other sources, so the injury concerns aren't really a factor either.

[splitterpfj]

Rams, I love the guy, and I'm glad the Brewers picked him, I'm making one point here, and it's just the way I see it.

 

In the Baseball America Prospect Handbook, Roache was listed as the Brewer's #7 overall prospect, three spots behind Morris. Jonathan Mayo has him at #8, three spots behind Morris.

 

You and I both know, without the injury, Victor Roache is picked long before the Brewers get a shot at him last year. We also know, without the injury, nobody would use Morris' AA stats to say he's a better bet than Roache.

 

The injury happened, and he still hasn't played a game, that's my only point here, and obviously, I'm not the only one who thought so.

 

I mean no disrespect to you, and I'm sure you mean no disrespect to me, but I feel the way I feel on this one. As soon as Roache gets rolling, no problem, but until I see it, I'm not taking this particular kid, at this particular time, and simply assuming he's back to what he had been.

 

I know where you're coming from, and if you make your rankings based strictly on potential, you're right, I just think this particular case is unique, because of the injury. Roache simply hasn't had a chance yet to show us that all is well, when he does, I'm all over it, until he does, he's back a few spots for me.

[TheCrew07]

There are 2 significant issues with Roache... his wrist and the supposed "holes in his swing"...

 

That's why I'm pretty excited to him play, I'm hoping he has bat speed like Lawrie (or better) when I see him, and I'll be interested in his approach at the plate and overall game.

 

He's not a once a generation athletic talent like a Harper or Strasburg, he's just not the type of guy you can vault to the top a prospect without seeing him play a little bit. I made the same argument for Jungmann's high placement on almost all lists following that draft, I just didn't see any WOW factor in his pitching. Many of us jumped Arnett that high on potential alone, personally I've learned some hard lessons with player's I've championed around here, I'm much more conservative now in that I want to see some performance before I get too excited about a guy.

 

I'm hoping to come away feeling really good about the T-Rats, especially the position players.

 

I think the best lists are a combination of potential and production, and anyone who's going to have a MLB career deserves to be a top 20 guy regardless of position or role, because those guys are hard to come by. I love upside as much as anyone but there's also value in a Fiers, Schafer, or Davis type player. I think back to Brent Brewer being high on the P40 because of his athleticism, but he never did anything... if we're only talking potential then Yadie should be top 10 guy on every list because he has double digit HR power and every fielding tool we would want for a player at a premium defensive position.

 

The fact that a player hasn't had a chance to perform shouldn't hurt him on lists, but it also shouldn't help him, there has to be something tangible to point to besides "potential".

 

Hopefully this season proves to be a new beginning for all of us that follow prospects around here... I'd like to be excited about the system again and it pretty much all hinges on the position players in WI and the pitchers high in the system finding more control.

[trwi7]

You and I both know, without the injury, Victor Roache is picked long before the Brewers get a shot at him last year.

 

Wouldn't that be an argument that you could put him as the top offensive prospect in the system? No you don't know how he's going to hit after the wrist injury but I think they did a pretty good job laying out the risks in the italicized preview for their draft coverage.

 

They probably should have held off on the absolute "no question" he's the best position player in the system but if he had the talent to go at the end of the 1st round with the wrist injury and even higher before it, I certainly wouldn't be shocked if he was the best position player in the system by the middle of the year depending on how his wrist is.

[Jenkins5]

Just want to note its great to see the guy grew up playing sports with getting some love! I know these don't mean much but congrats to Piercy!

 

As for rankings I don't think they are too far off where I'd have them. Roache prior to injury was a possible top 5 pick. I won't disagree with #3, doesn't matter if he has debuted. Guy is a big time prospect. McFarland and Arcia should raise stock a lot this year. I'm still super high on Garfield and Bucci but they just have to stay healthy and they should rise this season. Yadiel Rivera doesn't even get mentioned? Not sure about that

[James Zumstein]

I'm not sure why, other than his awesome name, Damien Magnifico is on the list. Sure, a guy who hits triple digits could become a closer, but not anytime soon with his non-existent control. He has too far to go before I'd put him on my list.

[homer]

I'm with splitter. Not a fan of ranking guys so high when they haven't swung a bat in the minors. And to even bring up Strasburg (a once a decade type prospect) is silly.

[ramssuperbowl1999]

We also know, without the injury, nobody would use Morris' AA stats to say he's a better bet than Roache.

Why not? Those two things have nothing to do with each other.

 

The injury happened, and he still hasn't played a game, that's my only point here, and obviously, I'm not the only one who thought so.

Yes he has. He's played in instructs in the fall and the spring. And we have reports that he's fully healthy.

 

I know where you're coming from, and if you make your rankings based strictly on potential, you're right, I just think this particular case is unique, because of the injury. Roache simply hasn't had a chance yet to show us that all is well, when he does, I'm all over it, until he does, he's back a few spots for me.

I do not rank strictly on potential. I have Taylor Jungmann over Orlando Arcia in my latest rankings, and don't plan to change that despite Arcia having substantially more ceiling than (anyone in the system including) Jungmann.

 

As much as Brewerfan loves to follow all the guys who make the majors and remind us all of Eric Arnett and how highly he was ranked in the early going, the site doesn't generally hold themselves accountable for having guys like Amaury Rivas ranked in their top 5. By then the site is already focused on the next guy, like, say Hiram Burgos.

 

To me, it's a far more egregious mistake to have a guy like Rivas way overranked after years and years of MiLB data and scouting reports than to overrank a draft pick who just can't adjust to pro ball for whatever reason.

[monty57]

And we have reports that he's fully healthy.

 

Fully healthy in that he could lead a normal everyday life, of fully healthy in that he has the same swing as he had before the injury and can make it through a full season?

 

Not being snide... I'm actually interested to know. How much has he swung a bat since the draft, and how has he looked? I really, really want to see Roache, Coulter, etc live up to the hype.

[ramssuperbowl1999]

And we have reports that he's fully healthy.

 

Fully healthy in that he could lead a normal everyday life, of fully healthy in that he has the same swing as he had before the injury and can make it through a full season?

 

Not being snide... I'm actually interested to know. How much has he swung a bat since the draft, and how has he looked? I really, really want to see Roache, Coulter, etc live up to the hype.

http://forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=29490

 

Lots of good stuff in this thread.

 

Just as important, Gord Ash didn't even mention Roache's wrist in this article:

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/brewers-intrigued-by-talent-of-young-players-959cft7-200980011.html

 

By all accounts, Roache is hitting with power again.

[Noche]

We also know, without the injury, nobody would use Morris' AA stats to say he's a better bet than Roache.

Why not? Those two things have nothing to do with each other.

 

The injury happened, and he still hasn't played a game, that's my only point here, and obviously, I'm not the only one who thought so.

Yes he has. He's played in instructs in the fall and the spring. And we have reports that he's fully healthy.

 

I know where you're coming from, and if you make your rankings based strictly on potential, you're right, I just think this particular case is unique, because of the injury. Roache simply hasn't had a chance yet to show us that all is well, when he does, I'm all over it, until he does, he's back a few spots for me.

I do not rank strictly on potential. I have Taylor Jungmann over Orlando Arcia in my latest rankings, and don't plan to change that despite Arcia having substantially more ceiling than (anyone in the system including) Jungmann.

 

As much as Brewerfan loves to follow all the guys who make the majors and remind us all of Eric Arnett and how highly he was ranked in the early going, the site doesn't generally hold themselves accountable for having guys like Amaury Rivas ranked in their top 5. By then the site is already focused on the next guy, like, say Hiram Burgos.

 

To me, it's a far more egregious mistake to have a guy like Rivas way overranked after years and years of MiLB data and scouting reports than to overrank a draft pick who just can't adjust to pro ball for whatever reason.

 

Rivas is not a good example at all. At one point he had the best change and control in the system according to BA. He was also routinely clocked in the low-90's while touching 94-95 while in the FSL. Injuries made him a non-prospect. The guy was legit good.

 

That said, I appreciate your willingness to defend your points and I look forward to the next installment of your list.

[ramssuperbowl1999]

Rivas is not a good example at all. At one point he had the best change and control in the system according to BA. He was also routinely clocked in the low-90's while touching 94-95 while in the FSL. Injuries made him a non-prospect. The guy was legit good.

http://www.brewerfan.net/ViewPower50.do?power50Id=102

 

That is the list I'm talking about. Rivas wasn't a hard thrower when that list was published - he was 25 year old, high 80's low 90's guy with no curveball, who wasn't missing bats anymore. The writeup even mentioned back-of-the-rotation scouting reports (and neglects to mention that most people had him as a long reliever at that point).

 

Equally as inexcusable is the ranking of Komatsu. This blurb from the write up sticks out - "which means that our best position-player prospect projects to be a 4th outfielder".

 

What that actually means is that you're not ranking your prospects right.

 

EDIT: Re-reading this I came off harsh - I was and am very appreciative of the Power 50 crew's hard work. I just disagree with some of their rankings.

 

That said, I appreciate your willingness to defend your points and I look forward to the next installment of your list.

Thanks! I know I don't rank prospects as is the norm here, and it will take a few years to figure out who is right, but I do try and provide enough info on each guy so that even if you think my rankings suck the write ups still help.