Re-signing Corey Hart?

[3and2Fastball]

I've seen talk of Mark A saying they are interested in resigning Hart. I like Corey well enough, but he's a .335 OBP guy with 25-30 HR's per season, which really is only OK production at 1B. Why would you tie up money in Hart and block Hunter Morris when that money could be better spent elsewhere?

 

edit: Plus Hart is 30 years old and getting slower every year.

[Warning Track Power]

Hunter Morris didn't really give me a lot of hope for his future this spring. He looked lost at the plate and like I posted in a different thread, I need to see he isn't just another Kevin Barker. I know what he did last year at Double AA but he looks like a guy that might need a season or two at Triple AAA. I would very much welcome a Corey re-signing if he got a LaRoche type contract extension (2 years, $22 million with an option for year 3) meaning we would have Corey on a 3 year, $32 million contract including this year, for his age 31, 32 & 33 seasons.

[fondybrewfan]

Talk to me again in 3 months. If Morris is tearing it up in AAA then I would not extend Hart. If Morris takes a step back and no other firstbasemen in the system steps up then maybe I consider it. It always comes down to the benjamins.

 

Even if Morris flops I have to imagine that K Davis would be given a great opportunity over there. So at this point I would bet against it. If I had to choose I would rather extend Weeks when his contract is up than Harts.

[monty57]

We already have plenty (probably too many) guys making eight figures/year. The only two people on the roster I'd like extensions for are Segura and Peralta. If either or both of them look good this season, I'd look at offering a Lucroy-style extension next offseason, where we buy out a couple of FA years and never pay more than a few million a season. Lucroy's entire contract equals less than what Hart would get in one year. We need more of those deals, and they can only be handed out to our top young guys when they've still got pre-arby years left. We don't have many guys in the system worthy of these deals, so hopefully Segura and Peralta will prove worthy.

 

I like Hart, but I'd let him and his gimpy knees move on.

[DHonks]

Hunter Morris has had 1 good minor league season, and previously was known as poor defensively with holes in his swing. Let's give him time in the minors. Hart is already above average offensively and defensively

[MVP2110]

I am not ready to annoint Morris the future 1b. However if he is doing good in AAA the first few months I definately would look towards trading Hart or atleast not resigning him and getting a comp pick

[pogokat]

I agree with Dhonks...

 

personally, I'm glad the Brewers aren't just automatically to Corey Walking

 

Next year's fre agent class is terrible, so barring a trade, if corey walks, it has to be someone in house...I'm not a full believer in Hunter Morris yet...if he hits at AAA like he did at AA, then great. But he has profiled a whole lot like Brendan Katin---I'm excited to see what he can do when he's not playing in his home town as well.

[CheezWizHed]

Remember that Morris has had one really good year (Huntsville) and two "blah" years (Brevard and Wisconsin). And he still hasn't shown much ability to take a walk. I know a lot of people jumped on his bandwagon, but he isn't a can't-miss type prospect.

 

For Hart, however, I'm with WTP. A short(er) contract wouldn't be a bad idea. Last year, he was the 11th ranked 1B (by OPS) or 10th if you want to exclude Mauer. He isn't an All-Star, but he isn't bad either.

[3and2Fastball]

the energy/emotion might change about Morris but the point isn't so much about Morris specifically it is about needing to not extend every above average player and instead develop some talent at 1B

 

Really the simpler solution is putting Braun at 1B and Khris Davis in LF if Davis is for real

[adambr2]

I'm not sold on Hunter Morris yet. We said the same things about Gamel at one point.

 

Hart is a perennial 30 HR, .850 OPS guy. That's not easy to replace as some people seem to think. That's a big hole in the lineup especially if he walks after this year. I wouldn't go into 2014 expecting Gamel or Morris to duplicate those numbers.

 

That said, I agree you can't break the bank for him, especially at 30. I wouldn't go over a 4 year deal.

[chadomac]

I do not believe Mat Gamel is out of the mix for sure. I could definitely see them bringing him back and giving him another shot at 1B along with Morris.

 

I also just don't really believe they want to sign Corey Hart to an extension, despite what they've said recently regarding available funds. I think he'll get 3-4 years minimum and for one reason or another they just don't want to do that for the 12+ per year he's going to get in free agency.

[CheezWizHed]

Having above average players on "decent" contracts is never a bad thing. If Gamel or Morris start pushing Hart, above average players on "decent" contracts are easily trade-able.

 

Letting Hart go without knowing that Morris/Gamel/whomever can play 1B leads people question DM's ability to plan.

 

The key part isn't whether to extend Hart or not. Its how much and how long its going to take to resign him.

[monty57]

Having above average players on "decent" contracts is never a bad thing.

 

Never say never :-)

 

Simple math. Baseball contracts are guaranteed and we have a limited payroll. At, say $100MM, you can only have nine guys getting $10MM/year, and then only if the other 16 guys are getting paid league minimum. If you don't have 16 pre-arby guys on the roster, then you can't even have nine guys getting $10MM/year.

 

Next year (without Hart), we will have five guys on eight figure salaries: Weeks ($12MM), Braun ($11MM), Lohse ($11MM), Ramirez ($16MM), and Gallardo ($11.5MM). We also have Gomez at $7MM, Gorzellany at $2.95MM, Lucroy at $2.1MM and Aoki I believe around $2MM (assuming option is exercised). That's around $75.55MM. Then there's Axford, who will probably get $8MM or so, Estrada at around $5MM and Badenhop at around $3MM (arby guys who are very likely still around) - combining for another $16MM. Narverson and Gamel will both be arby eligible as well, and if we keep both of them, you're probably adding another $3-4MM.

 

Let's just say $95MM right there, for 14 players. We need 25, so even if the other 11 guys were all being paid league minimum (highly unlikely), we'd be right around $100MM just with current obligations. Adding Hart at $12-15MM/year would put us around $115MM, and that's if we could find ten guys to play for league minimum. We don't have a strong farm, so finding ten league minimum guys would be tough, especially for a fanbase that won't accept "unproven" players on the roster, as is evidenced by the quote:

 

Letting Hart go without knowing that Morris/Gamel/whomever can play 1B leads people question DM's ability to plan.

 

I bolded the key part, in that I think Melvin's "plans" only extend to two year "windows." Anything beyond that is the next guy's problem. I like Hart, but doing things like signing Lohse, extending Gomez, backloading Ramirez, and not building a strong farm have left us in a position that eventually we will have to let good players go, while the bad contracts will pile up. If Weeks doesn't rebound, his "decent" contract will be untradeable. Ramirez will be pretty untradeable going into next year at one-year/$20MM. Lohse's contract is already probably untradeable, as no one else would sign him... he'll certainly be hard to trade in future years. Gomez's contract will depend on whether last year was a fluke.

 

I could see us extending Hart based on the same "need" perceived this year in signing Lohse... we can't rely on "unproven" when we can simply pay eight figures for "proven." I think we're in another two-year "window" and any extension of Hart would just make the fall harder when the "window" closes, as his gimpy knees probably make him "older" in baseball terms than his actual age, and I could very well see him untradeable if his knee problems persist. He didn't have the surgery that would've kept him out this year, but would've fixed the problem. Instead, he opted for the same surgery he had a year ago, which required surgery a year later. It's very likely he will continue to have knee problems for the rest of his career, eventually missing an entire season. I don't want the Brewers to have to pay him for that missed season, and I doubt any insurance company would touch him.

 

So, in fantasy world, I like him on our team. In a world of guaranteed contracts and budgets, I'd let him walk.

[James Zumstein]

Very well put, Monty. I love Corey, but there is ZERO reason to do anything at this point in time. Corey has said that he wants to be a Brewer for his entire career, but I still don't think he'd give much as far as a discount to stay. Let the summer play out, and we will have a lot more information to base an intelligent decision on.

[JohnBriggs12]

The Pirates just designated 1B Clint Robinson for assignment. Robinson posted 1.035 OPS in AA at age 25, then followed that up with AAA seasons of .932 and .845. I use him as just another example of a guy that mashes minor league pitching but at 28 is having his window to become a major leaguer closing.

 

We get all excited by guys putting up big minor league numbers but the biggest jump of all is from AAA to the majors. There's a reason guys who put up big numbers in the big leagues get big bucks. There's just not a lot of guys that can do in against major league quality pitching,

 

Pinning hopes on Morris is a gamble. Brewers know what they have in Hart. Yes, he's a lot slower than he used to be, but in reality his game is now all power, and that's what you want at 1B.

[liveforoctober]

Having above average players on "decent" contracts is never a bad thing.

 

Never say never :-)

 

Simple math. Baseball contracts are guaranteed and we have a limited payroll. At, say $100MM, you can only have nine guys getting $10MM/year, and then only if the other 16 guys are getting paid league minimum. If you don't have 16 pre-arby guys on the roster, then you can't even have nine guys getting $10MM/year.

 

Next year (without Hart), we will have five guys on eight figure salaries: Weeks ($12MM), Braun ($11MM), Lohse ($11MM), Ramirez ($16MM), and Gallardo ($11.5MM). We also have Gomez at $7MM, Gorzellany at $2.95MM, Lucroy at $2.1MM and Aoki I believe around $2MM (assuming option is exercised). That's around $75.55MM. Then there's Axford, who will probably get $8MM or so, Estrada at around $5MM and Badenhop at around $3MM (arby guys who are very likely still around) - combining for another $16MM. Narverson and Gamel will both be arby eligible as well, and if we keep both of them, you're probably adding another $3-4MM.

 

Let's just say $95MM right there, for 14 players. We need 25, so even if the other 11 guys were all being paid league minimum (highly unlikely), we'd be right around $100MM just with current obligations. Adding Hart at $12-15MM/year would put us around $115MM, and that's if we could find ten guys to play for league minimum. We don't have a strong farm, so finding ten league minimum guys would be tough, especially for a fanbase that won't accept "unproven" players on the roster, as is evidenced by the quote:

 

Letting Hart go without knowing that Morris/Gamel/whomever can play 1B leads people question DM's ability to plan.

 

I bolded the key part, in that I think Melvin's "plans" only extend to two year "windows." Anything beyond that is the next guy's problem. I like Hart, but doing things like signing Lohse, extending Gomez, backloading Ramirez, and not building a strong farm have left us in a position that eventually we will have to let good players go, while the bad contracts will pile up. If Weeks doesn't rebound, his "decent" contract will be untradeable. Ramirez will be pretty untradeable going into next year at one-year/$20MM. Lohse's contract is already probably untradeable, as no one else would sign him... he'll certainly be hard to trade in future years. Gomez's contract will depend on whether last year was a fluke.

 

I could see us extending Hart based on the same "need" perceived this year in signing Lohse... we can't rely on "unproven" when we can simply pay eight figures for "proven." I think we're in another two-year "window" and any extension of Hart would just make the fall harder when the "window" closes, as his gimpy knees probably make him "older" in baseball terms than his actual age, and I could very well see him untradeable if his knee problems persist. He didn't have the surgery that would've kept him out this year, but would've fixed the problem. Instead, he opted for the same surgery he had a year ago, which required surgery a year later. It's very likely he will continue to have knee problems for the rest of his career, eventually missing an entire season. I don't want the Brewers to have to pay him for that missed season, and I doubt any insurance company would touch him.

 

So, in fantasy world, I like him on our team. In a world of guaranteed contracts and budgets, I'd let him walk.

 

I like that you did this work for me so I don't have to. How would you remedy this problem? Are you hoping Hart plays well enough to be traded at the deadline this year? Ramirez? I know we are getting a nice sized chunk of money from MLB in tv contracts beginning next year (25 mil?) so I think Mark A has a bigger wallet to deal from ... but what is your theory? (Not challenging you, just curious)

[Warning Track Power]

I will never understand the desire to push out the proven Weeks & Hart for the unproven likes of Scooter and Morris. It's not like Weeks and Hart are 34 or 35. Being they are both in their age 31 seasons, they should have 2-3 more years after this season at above average production before significant decline could be anticipated. Hart had the third most HR by a 1B last season, behind I. Davis & A. LaRoche. Weeks the 2nd most HR as a 2B behind A. Hill, despite his awful first half. Additionally, I have read nothing that says Scooter and Morris profile as anything more than average big leaguers, while Weeks and Hart are both former all stars still producing at all star levels.

 

The obsession by some with replacing these guys while they still should have some prime seasons left with average prospects is surprising.

[LouisEly]

Hunter Morris has had 1 good minor league season, and previously was known as poor defensively with holes in his swing. Let's give him time in the minors. Hart is already above average offensively and defensively

 

This. The one good minor league season Hunter Morris had was the one where he played in his hometown/where he grew up, and I believe he lived at home with his family.

 

Keep in mind, unlike Fielder, Hart is above average defensively and with more playing time there will likely get even better.

[Ennder]

The Hart situation is nothing like the Lohse one but I would rather not sign Hart long term personally. I don't think he is going to age well.

[markedman5]

Mark didn't exactly say they were interested in re-signing Hart. He said the Lohse contract wouldn't prohibit them from doing other things including signing Hart. He kind of used it as an example.....Now I'm not saying they won't re-sign him....Corey clearly wants to stay.....I think the Brewers are playing it smart and taking their time in deciding how to procede.

 

 

I've seen talk of Mark A saying they are interested in resigning Hart. I like Corey well enough, but he's a .335 OBP guy with 25-30 HR's per season, which really is only OK production at 1B. Why would you tie up money in Hart and block Hunter Morris when that money could be better spent elsewhere?

 

edit: Plus Hart is 30 years old and getting slower every year.

[WV Brew]

There is also Jason Rogers who last year put up an OBP of .416 in the pitcher's paradise of Brevard County. If he can do this at Huntsville, he has to come into the picture as well.

[monty57]

I will never understand the desire to push out the proven Weeks & Hart for the unproven likes of Scooter and Morris. It's not like Weeks and Hart are 34 or 35. Being they are both in their age 31 seasons, they should have 2-3 more years after this season at above average production before significant decline could be anticipated. Hart had the third most HR by a 1B last season, behind I. Davis & A. LaRoche. Weeks the 2nd most HR as a 2B behind A. Hill, despite his awful first half. Additionally, I have read nothing that says Scooter and Morris profile as anything more than average big leaguers, while Weeks and Hart are both former all stars still producing at all star levels.

 

The obsession by some with replacing these guys while they still should have some prime seasons left with average prospects is surprising.

 

Don't you in some way have to consider that one option costs $12,000,000 for one year and the other will cost around $450,000? Do multiple injuries factor in, in addition to the fact that age is catching up with them? Does working within a budget have any meaning? There are a whole lot of people who got their homes foreclosed on because they "needed" the biggest house that fit in their budget and then they "needed" to finish the basement and "needed" to re-do this & that. I don't want the Brewers to end up in "foreclosure," which in baseball terms is what the Cubs and Astros are going through.

 

I'd love to be able to keep every good player. They do that on the Yankees. We're not the Yankees. We are in the financial boat we're in... we can't change it because baseball contracts are guaranteed. Right now, the way to keep Hart would either be to raise payroll to near $120MM next year or to trade off another big contract or two (Braun, Yo, Ramirez, Weeks, Lohse and/or Gomez).

 

I don't have inside info, so maybe they will be able to raise payroll to $120MM, but if they can't, who should we trade away in order to retain Hart's services? I really think that should be the question answered... "If retaining Hart means trading away one or more of Braun, Gallardo, Ramirez, Weeks, Lohse or Gomez, should we do it?"

[Warning Track Power]

Monty,

 

You raise very good points. One option at $12m with age/injuries vs the other at $450k with youth/inexperience. Like I said previously though, Scooter/Morris are not blue chip prospects who we should clearing a path for like we did for Fielder by trading Overbay. Scooter and Morris profile as average MLB players at best from the scouting profiles I have read. My point isn't that the Brewers should ignore the finances, it is that some fans are so obsessed with prospects they are willing to overlook the rock solid performers currently occupying the postion today. We heard the same thing with Ramirez signing last year. Why not start Taylor Green at 3B? Yet another prospect who profiled as an average MLB player at best over an All Star 3B who hadn't shown a decline in productivity yet. The obsession with mediocre prospects is why we aren't anything but fantasy GMs (thank god) or else our order this or next year could have been: 1. Aoki RF 2. Scooter 2B 3. Braun LF 4. Lucroy C 5. Green 3B 6. Morris 1B 7. Schafer CF 8. Segura SS. With our pitching that is a 74 win team at best.

[monty57]

WTP, I agree that it probably often sounds like posters are saying "get rid of everyone and let the prospects play." Maybe some are.

 

I just look at things like cost, production and "team control" and try to envision scenarios that may make the team better, or will allow the team to get the most possible from that player. In Corey's case, the Brewers have received a lot of value from having him on the roster. Signing him to the team-friendly extension he signed a couple of years ago worked out.

 

Looking at where we were at last season's trade deadline, with Corey seemingly healthy but knowing he would be a free agent after this season, I thought it made sense to shop him around. 1.5 seasons of a 30 HR 1B/RF on a relatively inexpensive $10MM/year contract seemed like a pretty valueable trade chip. It wasn't that I thought someone else would jump in and exceed Corey's production, I thought we'd probably be able to get a playoff contender to give us a very good package for Corey (I think 1.5 years of Hart = 0.5 years of Greinke).

 

That trade obviously didn't happen, so when the season ended, I once again looked at players who were entering their final year of team control, as I think teams should always at least consider trading players going into their final contract year. Doesn't mean they'll always be traded... just that it should be looked into. Once again, Corey seemed like a good option to trade simply because of team control. Then he got hurt again, and basically killed any trade value he had.

 

As a general rule, I'd like the team to designate a "core" group which they lock up (preferably like Lucroy when they're still in their pre-arby years, so they get eight cheap years from the core guys). Everyone not deemed a core player, whether they're role players or elite players like Prince who is obviously not going to re-sign, should be looked at as to how they can best help the Brewers - maybe through playing year-to-year and maybe as a trade chip. As the core players near free agency, we need to determine whether they'll still be part of the core (in which case we look at another extension) or whether we should look at trading them. In my humble opinion, few players should be kept until they walk in free agency unless we're absolutely a World Series-caliber team and that player is a key cog.

 

However, second extensions are very risky (as we're discussing in regards to Corey) in that they are very expensive and they lock up post-prime years. Signing someone to an eight-figure, multi-year deal should only be for elite guys (Braun). I'd prefer all other extensions be like the Lucroy deal. Unfortunately, we're kind of backwards right now, with (in my opinion) too many eight-figure deals and not enough guys worthy of Lucroy-type deals.

 

While Hart is still a good player, and has been part of the core for years, I don't necessarily see him as an indespensible piece going forward. Therefore, I would've liked to have been able to trade him for a player or two who could have become core players (another Segura-type). Then, going forward we wouldn't be discussing whether we should spend another $40-50MM to extend Hart, but we would be looking at potentially having another key guy we could extend to a deal like Lucroy signed. We could afford a whole roster of Lucroy deals, but we can only have a handful of guys making eight figures.

 

Maybe the deal isn't there for a particular player, but if your long-term strategy is in place, you should be able to continually have a core of younger players signed to Lucroy-type deals, with the occasional exception making a boatload of money (Braun). So, since I (and a couple others) think this would be a good long-term strategy, we look at individuals from time-to-time to contemplate whether it would be worth it to trade that player, knowing full well that every deal isn't going to get done. It would just be nice if occasionally some deals would get made and it wasn't always signing another aging player to a multi-year, eight-figure per year guaranteed contract.

 

Since we are where we are, we're once again looking at the prospect of either extending a guy to a deal which would eat up >10% of the team's payroll, or letting him walk for nothing. We're in this situation far too often.

[Ennder]

I really like what the Brewers have done with the roster but I don't want them to sign Hart who looks to be a player who isn't going to age well and at a position where we have potential replacements in the minors. They have been shopping Hart for years now but nobody wants him so I think it will take a major injury to a contender at 1B to get rid of him. There are just too many young 1B out there for a team to want to take Hart off our hands.

 

I also don't want to sign Weeks to an extension. Just too much injury risk and his defense has never come around enough. He is another guy I don't expect to age very well.