How close are we to rebuilding?

[adambr2]

I'm afraid we are a lot closer than we may realize, and I think it may begin in 2014. Here's why.

 

1. Aging players/bad contracts. Ramirez and Lohse are still important players to this team, but at 34 years old, this may very well be the last productive year we can expect. Either way, they make up $27M of our payroll next year.

Braun is elite and a great value, but he's not enough. Him, Braun, Gallardo, and Weeks, the core of our team, will all be approaching the expensive years of their contracts. While they're still good values, the needed salary is going to chew up a lot of payroll. It's very fortunate that we locked Lucroy up when we did.

 

2. Poor farm system. We simply don't have the farm system to sustain all the losses that are forthcoming. It's likely that we'll lose Hart and Aoki to free agency, and Ramirez and Lohse to Father Time. These are significant players, with no near equal level replacements.

 

We're going to have to pin our hopes that we have a lot of hits on the arms in our farm system, particularly when it comes time to replace Gallardo in the rotation. If we can't, I think 2013 might be our best shot for the forseeable future.

[PrinceEatMeat]

I'm sorry, but the signing of Lohse doesn't exactly scream rebuild. It screams the exact opposite. The Brewers aren't anywhere near a rebuild. This type of signing shows that. Attanasio also basically came out and said that he plans to re-sign Hart. Another step in the wrong direction from a rebuild. It should happen, but it's not happening any time soon I'm afraid.

[djoctagone]

It's likely that we'll lose Hart and Aoki to free agency, and Ramirez and Lohse to Father Time. These are significant players, with no near equal level replacements.

aoki is under team control for five more seasons. he'll be arbitration-eligible when his current contract expires, but the brewers will still control his rights.

 

in the case of losing hart, one can still hold out hope that 2014 is the year for mat gamel (assuming the brewers deem him worthy of an arbitration-eligible contract). if not, have you been following the careers of sean halton and hunter morris?

[TURBO]

Ramirez has shown no signs of slowing down. I don't think we can bunch him into any bad contract talks until he shows signs of decline.

 

I love the guy, my only concern is is health. If he stays healthy, he will produce.

[brwrsfan]

Khris Davis has to come into the mix here at some point too, either on this roster, or trading for something we can use.

[3and2Fastball]

As long as Mark A is our owner we will never rebuild. We will always be, perpetually, the team with the "win now" mentality, going after that Division Title or Wild-Card spot

[Outlander]

I don't know if it is necessarily rebuilding but they will have to start playing younger players where they have not committed large salary. They probably won't extend Hart, giving Morris a chance to start and 2014 may very well be Weeks last year and then Scooter Gennett will take his place. They may go with Schafer or Davis in the not too distant future as well so that they have at least one low salary guy in the outfield starting in 2015. Therefore starting in 2015 they will have their 1B, 2B, SS, RF making little and probably 2-3 starters as well if a couple of Burgos/Thornburg/Peralta/Hellweg/Jungman pan out.

[Ennder]

It depends on the players we drafted the past 2 seasons. We have the minor league players to sustain this team for the next 2-3 years pretty easily. If that next wave can replace some of the missing pieces at that point we should be fine, if not we might have to consider a rebuild. The minor league system is way better than people give it credit for, it is just light on stars. So as long as we have stars to build around we are fine, if we need to replace stars it gets harder.

[pogokat]

Mlbtr.com mentioned that Doug and Mark have planned on trying to resign Hart and that they still feel they have the money to make another substantial move if necessary

 

this team isnt planning on rebuilding until it it forced on them

[JohnBriggs12]

Braun is in his prime. Gomez is entering his prime. Aoki is in his peak seasons in MLB. Segura is just starting. Weeks is in his prime. Hart is still in his prime for a year or two. Lucroy is just entering his prime.

 

That only leaves Ramirez who's past his prime years but still productive for the position. You accumulate talent so you reap the benefits of it in its prime years. I think the window on this group is still open for 2-4 more years. Tweaking will need to be made for sure, but surrendering to a complete rebuild? Not in the foreseeable future.

[Patrick425]

Mlbtr.com mentioned that Doug and Mark have planned on trying to resign Hart and that they still feel they have the money to make another substantial move if necessary

 

this team isnt planning on rebuilding until it it forced on them

 

 

I saw the quote on Mlbtr.com that states they feel they have the ability to resign Hart. I may have overlooked it, but I didn't see any quote from Mark or Doug that stated "they have the money to make another substantial move if necessary"

 

edit: Oh..ok, Now I see...but owner Mark Attanasio says that it will not prevent the club from "being able to make another move," reports Rosenthal. In particular, Attanasio expects to be in a position to re-sign first-baseman Corey Hart, Although it doesn't say "substantial" and this sounds like resigning Hart would be considered "another move"

[Warning Track Power]

Me personally...I am very happy to hear they are entertaining the idea of re-signing Corey Hart. Very underappreciated on this board and by a lot of Brewer fans in general in my opinion. Plus I need to see more from Hunter Morris before I annoint him anything more than Kevin Barker.

[James Zumstein]

Mark A and Doug have proven over the last half dozen years that they find ways to put competitive, if not always championship caliber, teams on the field. A little over a year ago, people were wondering why we signed Aoki, now they don't know what we'd do without him. I have faith in our ability to be competitive year in and year out without tearing it all down.

[monty57]

How close are we to rebuilding?

 

We've opened a second window (or re-opened the first window a little). This one has less talent and more players in the "decline stage" of their career guaranteed eight figure salaries, without the star talent playing for league minimum that we had in the first window, but it's now opened up. I don't expect this window to be anywhere near as "successful" as the last one, as we just don't have the talent in the system that we had then. However, there is now a second Wild Card, so the chance of making the playoffs (or at least claiming we were almost in like last year) goes up substantially.

 

Melvin seems to think in terms of two-year intervals, so the first hint of a rebuild would be no sooner than the offseason following 2014 - we've got too many big contracts locked into 2014 to think we'd do any kind of a rebuild prior to next season. At that point, we may out of necessity have to play a lot of "unproven" guys from our depleted farm.

 

Mlbtr.com mentioned that Doug and Mark have planned on trying to resign Hart and that they still feel they have the money to make another substantial move if necessary

 

If that's the case, then we would probably field a $110-120MM roster next year. If the new TV deal, etc is allowing for that, then many of my worries will be diminished. Regarding Hart, I do worry that his ability to be a "quick healer" (as he called it last year) suddenly disappeared when Braun's name was brought up in the Miami fiasco. I like Hart's ability to hit, but I would stay away mainly because he's a walking timebomb from an injury perspective, and also because he's exiting his prime, so any extension would be paying him as if he were in his prime while he's actually past his prime.

 

I've said it before, but we can't have a $250MM roster, so we can't pay everyone $10MM per year. At some point, we will have to put some faith in a prospect. That faith wasn't put in Schafer, can't really be put in Davis (LF only), so why not put some faith in Morris?

[monty57]

A little over a year ago, people were wondering why we signed Aoki, now they don't know what we'd do without him.

 

Actually, Melvin was surpirsed when his lowball bid netted him a star Japanese player. No one from the Brewers' organization had ever even seen film on him. They flew him to Arizona, where they scouted him for a few days, hinted at not even signing him, and finally inked a deal. He was sat on the bench, where he thankfully hit in the sporadic PAs they gave him, Gamel got hurt, and he got his chance.

 

It certainly wasn't a thought out plan to have Aoki be our long-term starting RF. It was a lucky happenstance. But now that Aoki is "proven," that same kind of "luck" would have to happen if Schafer or Davis ever want to see regular time as a Brewer.

[TooLiveBrew]

A little over a year ago, people were wondering why we signed Aoki, now they don't know what we'd do without him.

 

Actually, Melvin was surpirsed when his lowball bid netted him a star Japanese player. No one from the Brewers' organization had ever even seen film on him. They flew him to Arizona, where they scouted him for a few days, hinted at not even signing him, and finally inked a deal. He was sat on the bench, where he thankfully hit in the sporadic PAs they gave him, Gamel got hurt, and he got his chance.

 

It certainly wasn't a thought out plan to have Aoki be our long-term starting RF. It was a lucky happenstance. But now that Aoki is "proven," that same kind of "luck" would have to happen if Schafer or Davis ever want to see regular time as a Brewer.

Craig Counsell did video scouting work on Aoki before the Brewers flew him to AZ. (Source: tv broadcasts from last season)

[paul253]

I hope we aren't thinking of rebuilding anymore because the Brewers aren't even close to being in position to do so.

 

I don't understand why you would sign Corey Hart. The guy is an expensive, injury plagued player on the downside of his career who is pretty much limited to first base now. He's probably looking for one last multiyear contract so you may be able to sneak a QO by him and get an extra pick. But signing him long term makes no sense to me. The Brewers have already blocked guys like Schafer and Khris Davis. If they block Hunter Morris too (assuming has another good season) I'll question whether Melvin really knows how to run a small market franchise. All the years of success (playoffs) are a direct result of trades to obtain all star caliber pitchers. Unfortunately with one of the worst farm systems in baseball we can't really rely on that anymore, at least not in the next few years. Even with the addition of Lohse I don't see this years team as anything better than maybe 3 or 4 games above .500. What happens this season with guys like Peralta, Hellweg, Jungmann, Fiers, Bradley and Thornburg may determined how much of a rebuild we need to go into.

 

Either way I think Melvin needs to diversify his draft picks a little bit. At some point he's going to have to spend a top 5 draft pick on something other than a pitcher or outfielder.

[MJLiverock]

How close are we to rebuilding?

 

 

 

 

If that's the case, then we would probably field a $110-120MM roster next year. If the new TV deal, etc is allowing for that, then many of my worries will be diminished.

 

 

Just saw the new Forbes baseball report. They estimate the Brewers had $201 Million in revs in 2012 and a $9 million profit with a $100 Million payroll. It seems the operating costs by most teams range in the $80 to $100MM range outside of payroll so if the Brewers can get a bump in TV money, keep the park full, they should be able to keep revs in the $200MM to $220MM range giving them room for the payroll you describe, pending how much they want for a "net income" in any given year.

 

The caveat I have had is that what is that $100MM to $110MM payroll going to get in the baseball market of tomorrow? The bump in Brewers TV money pales in comparison to most teams. The Phillies had 2012 revs of $279MM and expect to double their TV money. The Brewers revs even at $210MM to $220MM will put them in the lowest third of baseball teams as the new money rolls in.

[monty57]

How close are we to rebuilding?

 

 

 

 

If that's the case, then we would probably field a $110-120MM roster next year. If the new TV deal, etc is allowing for that, then many of my worries will be diminished.

 

 

Just saw the new Forbes baseball report. They estimate the Brewers had $201 Million in revs in 2012 and a $9 million profit with a $100 Million payroll. It seems the operating costs by most teams range in the $80 to $100MM range outside of payroll so if the Brewers can get a bump in TV money, keep the park full, they should be able to keep revs in the $200MM to $220MM range giving them room for the payroll you describe, pending how much they want for a "net income" in any given year.

 

The caveat I have had is that what is that $100MM to $110MM payroll going to get in the baseball market of tomorrow? The bump in Brewers TV money pales in comparison to most teams. The Phillies had 2012 revs of $279MM and expect to double their TV money. The Brewers revs even at $210MM to $220MM will put them in the lowest third of baseball teams as the new money rolls in.

 

Thanks for the info. I was just looking at next year's payroll, for which most of the obligations are pretty much set. Even without Hart, I'd have a hard time seeing us field a team for less than $100MM.

 

From Cot's:

 

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tz1FL3X6KldYXIoGOHXpv6A&output=html

[danzig6767]

As long as Mark A is our owner we will never rebuild. We will always be, perpetually, the team with the "win now" mentality, going after that Division Title or Wild-Card spot

 

I don't think Attanasio is some ultra stubborn owner that would never allow for a serious rebuilding project like Herb Kohl is with the Bucks, but i do agree with you that he clearly seems like he will defer to the side of trying to win now unless he feels that is pretty much a hopeless proposition.

 

I'd love to be a fly on the wall during Atanassio's conversations with Melvin about the state of the team from year to year. To know exactly just how much influence he has on sizable moves which are made each year?

 

Take the Lohse signing. I think it's about a 100% lock that Mark A. had to sign off on the contract, but i'd love to also know if say he put some pressure on Melvin to get a deal done with Lohse? Or was he the guy mainly negotiating with Boras, not Doug? Has Attanasio overruled any moves Melvin has wanted to make over the years and if so, which ones?

 

I'm surprised nobody in the media has tried hard delving into the the whole Melvin/Attanasio relationship. My gut sense is that they share pretty similar beliefs on the team, but who knows to what degree and his level of influence on which moves get made or not.

[DHonks]

Adam, I know I'll regret saying this by mid-June, but I've actually missed your once a week posts about imminent rebuilding. It's always good to reflect on where we are in the cycle of production. But seeing as Braun, Weeks, Hart, Lucroy, and Hart are hardly classified as old, I see no reason to really consider rebuilding. Ramirez may be older, but he's coming off two of his most productive seasons.

[brewmann04]

It the owner money and that the bottom line. I do enjoy watching the brewers be competitive instead of trying to retool. The brewers still have a few good prospects in the minors. Think this team is doing well balancing themselves.

[sveumrules]

Moving forward I would say we are in a good position with the OF (Braun/Gomez/Aoki/Schafer), C (Lucroy/Maldonado), and SS (Segura). 3B, 2B and 1B are fine for this year but after that it gets dicey. Ramirez is old, Weeks is getting to the age where 2B start to get hurt a lot more & he's already been hurt a lot, and while I'd prefer they don't resign Hart if he comes back and repeats last year's 125 wRC+ (107 was league average for 1B in 2012) I won't be too heartbroken if the money/years aren't crazy. That leaves the only questions in the near future at 2B/3B for the lineup and I personally don't believe in any of the internal options that are close to MLB ready at this point. Still, 6/8 of an above average lineup locked in for the next few years is a good position to be in.

 

On the pitching side there are a lot more questions, but that is the story of the Milwaukee Brewers as long as most of us can remember. It's pretty much Gallardo and then crickets. While having cheap, internal options for the 4/5 spots is nice we are still lacking a true #1 at any level. The three ways you can get a #1 are to have legit prospects to trade for them (we used up all of ours on rentals so we don't anymore), spend big on them in FA (dream on), and pick early in the draft (we win too many games now to do that). Sure the Pirates have a great farm, but it's primarily because of Cole/Taillon who were #1 and #2 picks in their drafts. When we've had picks close to that high in the recent past and used them on arms we took the two highest upside/lowest probability guys in Rogers and Jeffress and it didn't work out.

 

As much as I'd love for the Brewers to emulate the Rays model, and be able to take it to the next level even because we have the fan support they lack & don't play in the AL East, that is as much of a pipe dream as signing a true ace to that 6/150 contract. At the same time the run of baseball this team has had since Melvin took over, while far from perfect, is the best that I can remember in my 30 years of being a fan. We look far better on paper than either the A's or Orioles of last year who both played in more difficult divisions than we do and made the postseason. Anything can happen in baseball and I for one am curious to see what does.

[nate82]

We are not even close to rebuilding as long as MA is the owner of the Brewers. Maybe if Braun, Gallardo, Weeks, and Segura all had career ending injuries then we would be close to rebuilding which would really be a forced rebuilding. I just can not see MA going through a rebuilding process. It sucks though because I would really like to see what the Brewers could get for Gallardo. I really wish the Brewers would have traded Gallardo to the Royals for what the Rays got in trading Shields to them. Those players would look real nice right now for the Brewers.

 

I fully expect Hart to be resigned with Gallardo getting a rather lengthy and expensive contract extension.

[joepepsi]

If last year is a valid indication, then the offense is good enough even if its aging.The previous generation of Brewer prospects was on the offensive side, which is appropriate for a miserable organization. This generation is gaining strength from the pitching side, which is the right approach long term for a small market team.

 

In the NL the wild card is usually available for an 88 win team. Good pitching and a couple decent bats sets up a team for contention. Remember, Melvin used to hold the Twins as the model for Brewers. That means a team that always is competitive but doesn't do radical rebuilds. There's plenty of talent in the organization to compete for3-4 more years. If not, well, you can always tear everything apart and start over. Braun and Yo have tradeable contracts should the bottom fall out in 2013 or 2014.