The Kyle Lohse Love/Hate Thread

[splitterpfj]

Honestly, Briggs, I thought the Brewers would add a veteran starter in March this whole time, I just don't think Mr Attanasio can sit and hope young guys all come through, he's a competitor, and he plays to win. I thought they'd stick to their guns on the draft pick with Lohse, and trade for one of the guys the Dodgers have.

 

Now, if you REALLY want to hear some noise...what if the Brewers still trade for a guy like Capuano or Lilly, thereby bumping both Peralta and Fiers from the rotation?

[logan82]

I don't think it really adds enough wins to be worth while. The contract itself isn't bad, for a pitcher a couple years younger. Giving up a pick on top of that is worse. We gave out a bad contract and gave up a pick for a guy who will not really add much to the team.

[sheetskout]

I don't think it really adds enough wins to be worth while. The contract itself isn't bad, for a pitcher a couple years younger. Giving up a pick on top of that is worse. We gave out a bad contract and gave up a pick for a guy who will not really add much to the team.

 

 

If he comes close to the number of quality starts he had last year (26) I'll be happy. And it's not really a bad thing that Lohse seems pretty reliable to put up the innings (at least recently).

 

If it helps there is already speculation that the Brewers could very well play for contention and if not trade Lohse at the deadline by eating a small portion of his salary.

[danzig6767]

So nobody wants him, it's almost time for the season to start and the best we can do is 3 years/33 million? Really? What was the asking price two months ago?

 

He's already 34, awesome deal Doug, Awesome. /blue

 

I get the feeling this is more Mark A then Doug. just a feeling though

 

The Brewers' original plan was to go with as many young pitchers from their farm system as possible this season but none of them has been overly impressive this spring. That no doubt was a driving force in the decision to sign Lohse.

Another thing you can bet on is that owner Mark Attanasio was a driving force in this move. Attanasio has remained in contact with agent Scott Boras and there has been dickering going on back and forth as to the price.

 

The Brewers are believed to have wanted to do a two-year deal for about $10 million a year but Boras wanted more than that. At the outset of the winter, before the market collapsed somewhat on Lohse, Boras was seeking a four-year deal for about $15 million per year.

 

Attanasio had created some space in his budget to make a signing such as this by trimming his payroll from $100 million in 2012 to about $80 million for 2013. Now, he'll be committing just over half of that savings to Lohse in annual salary.

 

I've been saying for awhile now that when some fans get mad at Melvin for moves he makes, never forget about the Attanasio factor.

 

I don't believe he's a super involved owner like say a Jerry Jones or Daniel Snyder in the NFL, but i don't think the Brewers structure is like the Packers either where the GM/Ted has no interference at all from ownership.

 

Attanasio strikes me as very competitive, prefers trying to win now whenever possible at all, and he clearly loves seeing about 3 million fans pour into Miller Park each year. So my gut feeling is that at the very least Attanasio has to sign off first on any major moves and he very well could be prodding Doug to be more aggressive at times to get deals like this Lohse one done.

[monty57]

I'll agree with Ennder that early on Melvin was too aggressive with prospects in an effort to put fans in the seats. In those days, the Brewers marketed their prospects to the fans, because there wasn't much to get excited about on the MLB roster.

 

Maybe it's just because Melvin realizes that he has really done a poor job in building a farm system, but in the last several years, Melvin has done a 180. Most of our prospects don't project to be in the majors until their mid-to-late 20's (if at all), at which time they're not really even considered prospects anymore. The only younger rookies who have been given a shot since Ryan Braun are Lucroy and Segura. Lucroy was only brought up because the veteran FA Melvin signed suffered a career-ending injury, so they didn't have a choice. Thankfully Lucroy hit the ground running, and "proved himself" in a small sample, so they didn't sign someone to block him the next year. Segura was brought up too early in order to give the fans some immediate return from the Greinke trade, lest those fickle fans think we were "giving up."

 

Of course, we had to bring some rookie pitchers up last year when Grienke was traded, Marcum was hurt and Wolf was kicked to the curb, but only Peralta was young, and now even though those rookies played quite well and we have a boatload of near MLB-ready starting pitchers in the minors, Melvin signs a guy who possibly as soon as next year won't be one of the five best starters in the system to a three year, eight figure salary. I had hopes that in a year or two we'd have such a surplus of SP that we'd be able to start trading from a position of strength as the younger, cheaper guys were pushing the older, more expensive guys out of the rotation. Unfortunately, I think more than anything, Melvin's moves over the past few seasons show that he has the same beliefs about our prospects as most of the "prospect watchers" out there who state that we have a bunch of utility players, back-of-the-rotation starters and middle relievers. Of course, he's the one who is ultimately responsible for our farm.

 

The Cardinals, who win at the MLB level while building a good farm, will get a good draft pick and strengthen their farm while getting rid of a past-his-prime, expensive pitcher while going with younger starters. Even when they lost some pitchers this spring to injury and wouldn't have lost a draft pick, they still passed on Lohse. Meanwhile, the Brewers, with a pathetic farm, will lose the 17th overall pick in order to sign that pitcher. It's a continued procession of these types of moves that lead to teams like the Cardinals continually in a position to kick dirt on the Brewers.

[hawing]

For what it's worth*, here is the comment left on Facebook by my STL-fan friend:

 

I don't think KL is the new JS. He's a much better pitcher. But thanks for the draft pick.

*Same guy declared Jonathan Lucroy classless in 2011 for "calling out" TLR in August. Hence the FWIW.

[xisxisxis]

More comments from Cards fans:

 

"I expect this to go about as good as Suppan and Looper did with the Brewers. Have they not learned their lesson?"

 

"While I lobbied hard to retain him, better to face him than Bud Norris."

[trwi7]

Just hearing about this now and couldn't be more disappointed in the signing.

[TURBO]

Lohse's career numbers in Miller Park (If you are faint hearted stop reading now):

 

44 IP, 56 Hits, 34 Runs all earned, 7 HR, 15 BB. 25 K, 6.95 ERA, 1.614 Whip, .890 OPS against.

 

THAT is bothersome. Wow...

 

I was really hoping this would not happen, but knew it would. Just KNEW it.

 

I am on record as hating this move with all of my brewer fan heart. I will not root against him though, he is now a brewer, and as long as he wears our uniform, I will be pulling for him.

 

This makes me sick to my stomach. That 33 million should have been used for something other than what we got, and this is hard to cope with as a fan.

[Brewcrewin07]

I love the aggressiveness in wanting to make the club better and to win now. Wish Ted Thompson would learn something from Doug. That being said, everyone knew(or at least i think they did), the Crew wasn't going to win this year with the staff they were going to trot out there. Had DM understood that and known that right away, they likely could have gotten a better Pitcher earlier in FA for the same(or around the same) money as they are paying Lohse.

[fondybrewfan]

I don't know about there; there was a whole lot of garbage out there this year. I probably would rather have Lohse than Dempster and it isn't like we were going to get Grienke. It was slim pickings this year.

[monty57]

I love the aggressiveness in wanting to make the club better and to win now. Wish Ted Thompson would learn something from Doug. That being said, everyone knew(or at least i think they did), the Crew wasn't going to win this year with the staff they were going to trot out there. Had DM understood that and known that right away, they likely could have gotten a better Pitcher earlier in FA for the same(or around the same) money as they are paying Lohse.

 

Yeah, I wish the Packers would become a successful franchise like the Brewers.

[endaround]

My guess is Mark looked at the shambles that was the rotation (in the running for Worst Rotation in the Actually Trying to Win Category (i.e. not Houston or Miami)) and saw acres of empty seats come July.

 

The problem with this is the Brewers needed a starter in the off season and did not get one. For few million more per year then Lohse you could have gotten Anibal Sanchez who is a much better pitcher and is is significantly younger. For a few million more per year than Lohse you could have gotten Edwin Jackson. But the Brewers wanted to reward the owners for having to for go one year without a big profit check.

 

The contract itself seems too long with the draft pick loss. If that third year is an option year it would look much better,

[Mr QL]

Just a pathetic and desperate signing. Would of rather had Ryan Dempster if we wanted to go down this road. Can't see any way this turns out good.

[Ennder]

The problem with this is the Brewers needed a starter in the off season and did not get one. For few million more per year then Lohse you could have gotten Anibal Sanchez who is a much better pitcher and is is significantly younger. For a few million more per year than Lohse you could have gotten Edwin Jackson. But the Brewers wanted to reward the owners for having to for go one year without a big profit chec

 

Neither of these guys are way better than Lohse. Sanchez is a step above him and Jackson probably a step behind him. Both are younger and that is the really important part of what you said. If Lohse were 29 I'd be loving this deal, the key issue with the deal is he is 34.

[brewcrewdue80]

I said this in the rumors thread, I'll say it again, There is nothing good about this signing. It is maddening, the worst team in all of baseball to sign Lohse just did.

 

Worst Farm system in Division-1st rd. pick=No hope of improving farm system

 

Best Farm system in Division +added supplemental pick...+ both picks move up 1 equals higher money in slots to sign their picks and higher chance of a successful pick.

 

34year old Pitcher coming off most innings pitched in Any 2year span of his 12year Career...SCREAMS Injury risk!

Never had B2B 200innings pitched. So for the argument that Brewers didn't have 140+innings guys to count on?

I don't have any faith Lohse pitches more than 170innings this year. That's 5spot starts to cover then with the original 140threshold we see the SP Lohse replaces. Now, add to it, 1week from Opening Day and Lohse suddenly needs to rush into readiness and I promise he will hurt himself doing so and/or be completely ill prepared/doesn't say he is/and is CRUSHED worse than Gallardo was last year to begin the year.

 

Already we know Lohse to be a non K artist which now puts the pressure on the Infield to field these grounders and not make errors. I think I read Weeks was the worst 2b defensively last year? Already know that Ramirez doesn't grade out as anything more than avg. Segura, I don't think he's ready defensively...it needs more time/experience to catch up to his bat. These are all Negatives on seeing Lohse perform well overall for the Brewers.

 

This will fail...It already has with the loss of the pick. How many SPs can the Brewers put in their AAA team? All these low ceiling/mid-floor guys who have capable arms to be given a chance are going to be stuck. Obviously Hellweg is a bust with this deal, so is Pena. Fiers, Thornburg,Bradley,Nelson,Burgos,Jungmann,Gagnon, and Rogers all of them must be thought of as busts. At least with Peralta/Narveson/Estrada/Lohse/Gallardo as your starting 5 for 2years or more that's what this signing tells me. We won't be welcoming any of them in to the rotation unless an injury dictates it so. This move blocks all of them that is 10 Pitchers stuck in the minors 9 with the obvious need to remove Rogers. I just can't fathom that not 1 of those 9 can't perform for the team, even briefly in stints being unknown to batters, to justify the certainty need to sign Lohse and lose the 17th pick. Why? I mean if the answer isn't within the farm system naming off those 9 pitchers...then it is even more important that the team has that 17th pick to potentially nab the answer, even blindly picking they have to have a 20% chance of success vs. use of scouting. Cole Hamels came from the 17th pick. That to me makes the draft pick a necessity. That potential Massive AllStar.

 

Now, we have Lohse, far beyond the years of prime and we have him for 3 ADDED years beyond the prime. I am approaching it like this: Roy Halladay one of the best pitchers in my generation, almost won the cy young age 34. Age 35 became Kyle Lohse pre 2011/12. And his Spring Numbers aren't a good sign thus far he's solved his issues for Age 36. There is just no way Lohse lives up to this deal. We will not get 33mil of value in pitching from Lohse. Nevermind the 20%Chance of a Stud via Draft and that loss of value.

 

Their is only 1 way this turns out positive for me and for the Brewers, and that is that he is traded...tomorrow or any time before he loses value and in return brings a prospect with around the same value of what that 17th pick brings.

[adambr2]

Here's the thing: management on this team is consistently reactive. They are almost never proactive. That's why we've had to gut the farm.

 

Back in December, any moron could have told Mark and Melvin, "Hey, you're relying on a rely young crop of starting pitching. They may have some growing pains and struggle in spring training. If you want an insurance policy against this, you could bring back Marcum for $4M, forfeit nothing, and get a younger starter with far better career numbers than Kyle Lohse."

 

Instead, they wait til spring training, watch the young starters struggle, and say, "Hey, we're relying on a rely young crop of starting pitching. It's too late to be proactive on this, our backs are to the wall. So we're going to give in to Scott Boras, forfeit the #17 draft pick for an already weak farm system, and give $33M to a 34 year old starter with a 4.45 career ERA."

 

And that is what happens when you're constantly reacting to what happens, and not planning ahead for what is very likely to happen.

[mothershipconnection]

If it were $22MM over 2 years, I'd be OK. If we didn't forfeit a valuable draft pick, I'd be OK. This was simply not a smart move. Dude is gonna hit 37 at the end of the deal and has had his fair share of crappy seasons. I'd have preferred seeing if our in-house options take off and re-open "the window" to trying to vault ourselves toward 85 wins with Lohse.

[TURBO]

The problem with this is the Brewers needed a starter in the off season and did not get one. For few million more per year then Lohse you could have gotten Anibal Sanchez who is a much better pitcher and is is significantly younger. For a few million more per year than Lohse you could have gotten Edwin Jackson. But the Brewers wanted to reward the owners for having to for go one year without a big profit chec

 

Neither of these guys are way better than Lohse. Sanchez is a step above him and Jackson probably a step behind him. Both are younger and that is the really important part of what you said. If Lohse were 29 I'd be loving this deal, the key issue with the deal is he is 34.

 

 

Except, if he was 29, according to his numbers, he would have been a sucky pitcher, and we wouldn't be giving him this contract.

 

I just hate that 3rd year and the draft choice... Those are the issues I can't get past.

 

Adam and brewcrewdue80, thanks for bumming me out even more with your takes. Sadly, I agree with both of you.

[PrinceFielderx1]

If we get 2 years out of Lohse where he pitches 180+ IP with a 3.50-4.10 ERA this is a good deal for the Brewers. Lohse is a different pitcher than he was a few years ago, because as someone else mentioned before he doesn't throw a regular fastball anymore, but rather throws a sinker now 40% of the time and has had tons of success because of it. He's a very smart pitcher that will pitch 6-7 innings every time he goes on the mound and that all you can ask from a SP on a team that has the top offense in baseball.

 

I'm in favor of this signing and I completely understand it.

[adambr2]

I love the aggressiveness in wanting to make the club better and to win now. Wish Ted Thompson would learn something from Doug. That being said, everyone knew(or at least i think they did), the Crew wasn't going to win this year with the staff they were going to trot out there. Had DM understood that and known that right away, they likely could have gotten a better Pitcher earlier in FA for the same(or around the same) money as they are paying Lohse.

 

Yeah, I wish the Packers would become a successful franchise like the Brewers.

 

+1. I hardly think that TT needs to "learn something" from Doug Melvin.

[trwi7]

13 - $4 million

14 - $11 million

15 - $11 million

16 - $ 2 million

17 - $2 million

18 - $3 million

 

Awesome. So we're going to be paying him for 3 years after his contract is up.

[PrinceFielderx1]

13 - $4 million

14 - $11 million

15 - $11 million

16 - $ 2 million

17 - $2 million

18 - $3 million

 

Awesome. So we're going to be paying him for 3 years after his contract is up.

 

Good. This gives them flexibility should they need to make a mid-season move to improve the ball club.

[adambr2]

I just hate this organization's approach. The way I see it, they had 2 options coming into this offseason:

 

A) Recognize that the rotation, though potentially talented, was loaded with question marks and that looking for a low-cost signing like Marcum as insurance, realizing that if the rotation performed, the lineup is still good enough to give us a shot at the playoffs.

 

B) Stick with the youth movement, have patience throughout spring training, and see how your young starting pitchers develop. Let them take their lumps this year, trusting what they did in the 2nd half of the season last year. Realize that there are a lot of unknowns and this might be an overall below average team this year.

 

Both of those options seem pretty reasonable to me. I could make a case for one over the other, but I think that most would understand going in either direction. So which did they go with? Neither. They went with the mystery option:

 

C) Feign like you're going to go with the youth movement. Panic when they're still underperforming in spring training and give up your 1st round pick and 33 million to land the biggest fish still out there.

[homer]

I'd like to add a resounding "harumph!".